21:03 UTC
Downtrend, basing near lows · RSI 38 · price 1.32354
LH/LL since Aug 21 high; 3-week base above 1.3180.
GBPUSD has printed lower highs and lower lows since the 1.3675 peak on Aug 21, with price below a falling EMA(20) near 1.3300 and the ema50 near 1.3400. The decline has stalled for three weeks into a 1.3180–1.3310 base: the range low has held on five daily tests, and the lower-highs trendline keeps capping rebounds. A firm USD on hawkish-Fed and oil-driven inflation pricing has outweighed a largely priced November BoE hike, leaving the pair faded from the 1.3286 week high back toward mid-range.
Support: 1.3181, 1.3140
Resistance: 1.3286, 1.3311, 1.3400
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 1.3180 range low extends the LL chain toward the 1.3140 june low
- Daily close above the lower-highs trendline and the 1.3311 swing high would break the LH sequence; the 38.2% aug-sep fib near 1.3370 and the ema50 at 1.3400 sit above
- US CPI Wed Oct 14 (f/c 3.6% y/y) could materially shift this read
- UK Aug GDP Thu Oct 15 and BoE speakers (Breeden, Pill) test the ~83% November hike pricing