08:38 UTC
Downtrend since late August, stalling at lows · RSI 38 · price 1.32285
Lower highs and lower lows from 1.3675; two-week base between 1.3181 and 1.3286.
The trend turned lower from the 21 Aug high at 1.3675. A lower high at 1.3568 on 9 Sep was followed by the mid-September breakdown through 1.3475. For roughly two weeks price has compressed between the 1.3181 swing low and the 1.3286 range top, holding below a falling EMA(50). Dollar strength from US yields near 18-month highs has capped rallies, while ~83% priced November BoE hike odds have kept a floor under sterling. RSI near 38 sits well short of oversold.
Support: 1.3181, 1.3140
Resistance: 1.3286, 1.3370, 1.3406
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 1.3181 swing low extends the lower-low chain and exposes the 1.3140 june low
- Close above the 1.3286 range top opens the 38.2% fib at 1.3370 and the 1.3406 breakdown area
- A move back above the lower-high line from the August peak would neutralise the downtrend read
- US UoM inflation expectations today and US CPI next week could materially shift this read via yields
- UK August GDP on 15 Oct and BoE speakers (Breeden, Mann) could shift November hike pricing