Post-selloff micro range 1.3202–1.3210 after a NY breakdown.
The pre-London high at 1.3261 failed. A Dollar-led NY selloff on oil and a DXY at 17-month highs then broke the London low at 1.3227 and printed a session low at 1.3202. Since then price has compressed in an 8-pip box just above the 1.3200 floor, and early Asia is pressing the range top at 1.3210 without a 23.6% fib retracement yet.
Support: 1.3202, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3210, 1.32156, 1.32269
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3210 range top opens the 23.6% fib at 1.3216, then the london low at 1.3227
Failure at the session low of 1.3202 puts the 1.3200 floor (13 sessions held) under direct test
BoE Greene at 03:00 UTC and Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could break the compression
GBP/USD gave back the pre-London push to 1.3261 as oil-driven Dollar demand took DXY to 17-month highs. NY broke the 1.3227 london low and printed a 1.3202 session low just above the 1.3200 round number. Since then, an 8-pip range capped by the 1.3210 range top has carried into early Asia, with none of the London-NY drop retraced and ATR compressed near 2.5 pips.
Support: 1.3202, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3210, 1.3227
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3200 round number breaks the 13-session floor and extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the 1.3210 range top opens a retracement toward the 1.3227 london low, near the 38.2% of the London-NY drop
BoE's Greene at 03:00 UTC and Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could break the current Asian range
LH/LL leg from Asian high into NY low, flat 8-pip range since.
Monday's Asian high at 1.3261 was rejected into London open. A stepwise sell-off on the oil-driven USD bid ran to a 1.32015 NY low just above the 1.3200 floor. Since then price has held a tight 1.3202–1.3210 range into early Asia, with RSI(14) flat near 50 and ATR at about 2 pips.
Support: 1.32015, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.32098, 1.32269
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3200 floor breaks the 13-session floor and extends the lower-low chain
Close above the 1.3210 range top opens a retrace toward the 1.3227 london low, near the 38.2% fib
BoE Greene (03:00 UTC) and Fed Waller (07:45 UTC) could break the compressed range
23:01 UTC
Downtrend, stalled into tight range · RSI 47 · price 1.32058
Lower highs from 1.3261 Asia high, NY low at 1.3202, 9-pip box since.
GBPUSD gave back the pre-London spike to 1.3261 and slid through the NY session on broad oil-driven USD strength, printing the NY low at 1.3202 just above the 1.3200 psych floor. Since then it has compressed into a 1.3201–1.3210 box into early Asia session, with RSI(14) neutral near 47 and ATR at only ~2.5 pips.
Support: 1.32015, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3210, 1.3227, 1.3236
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3200 psych floor and the NY low breaks the 13-session base
Close above 1.3210 range top opens the London low at 1.3227, near the 38.2% fib of the Asia high-NY low drop
Acceptance back above the NY swing high at 1.3236 would undo the lower-high sequence
BoE Greene at 03:00 UTC and Fed Waller at 07:45 UTC could break the Asian range
Lower-high sequence from 1.3236; tight 1.3202–1.3210 box since the NY low.
A Dollar-driven NY selloff from the 1.3236 NY high broke the 1.3227 London low and bottomed at 1.3202 (NY low), just above the 1.3200 psych floor, with oil and USD strength behind the move. Since then price has held a tight 1.3202–1.3210 box through the rollover into early Asia, well below the 1.3230–1.3261 Asian range. RSI(14) sits neutral near 55 and ATR is about 2.4 pips.
Support: 1.32015, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.32098, 1.32269, 1.32359
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3200 psych floor, which has held for 13 sessions, would mark a fresh lower low with crowded GBP shorts in play
Close above the 1.3210 range top shifts focus to the 38.2% fib of the NY drop near 1.3215, then the 1.3227 London low
BoE Greene (03:00 UTC) and Fed's Waller (07:45 UTC) could break the box before London; US CPI Wed is the larger catalyst
Lower highs from Asian high; tight 1.3202–1.3210 base since NY low.
GBPUSD faded the Asia session push to 1.3261. London open sold through the asian low, and NY extended the slide to a 1.3202 ny low as oil-driven USD demand built ahead of Wednesday's US CPI. Since then price has compressed under a 1.3210 range top through the daily rollover, with ATR(14) shrinking below 3 pips and RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 1.32015, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3210, 1.32269, 1.32346
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3210 range top opens the path to the 38.2% fib of the asian high to ny low leg near 1.3224, then the london low at 1.3227
Failure to hold the 1.3202 ny low extends the lower-low chain and exposes the 1.3200 psych level
Reclaim of the asian low at 1.3235 would negate the intraday downtrend read
BoE Greene (Tue 03:00 UTC) and Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) could break the compression ahead of London
22:17 UTC
Downtrend, stalled in a tight base · RSI 56 · price 1.32087
Lower highs from 1.3261, compressing above 1.3202.
London open faded the Asian-session high at 1.3261, and NY extended the selloff to a 1.3202 day low through the London low, as oil-driven USD demand built ahead of Wednesday's CPI. Since then price has based in a 7-pip 1.3202–1.3210 range into early Asia. RSI(14) is neutral near 56 and price is pressing the range high.
Support: 1.32015, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.32096, 1.32269
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3210 range high opens the London low at 1.3227, close to the 38.2% retrace of the selloff
Break of the 1.3202 day low and the 1.3200 round number resumes the lower-low sequence
BoE Greene (Tue 03:00 UTC) and Fed Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) could shift this read; US CPI Wed is the larger event risk
22:01 UTC
Downtrend, stalled in a tight base · RSI 57 · price 1.32086
Lower highs from the Asian high; 7-pip post-NY range above the NY low.
London opened with a break below the Asian range off the 1.3261 high, and NY extended the slide to a 1.3202 NY low as oil-driven USD demand built ahead of Wednesday's CPI. Since then the pair has held a 1.3202–1.3209 base through the Asia open, with price pressing the range top and the fib 38.2 of the NY leg at 1.3215 overhead.
Support: 1.3202, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3209, 1.3215, 1.3227
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.3209 range top puts the fib 38.2 at 1.3215 in play, with the london low at 1.3227 next
Failure to hold the 1.3202 ny low exposes the 1.3200 round number and confirms a lower-low
BRC retail sales at 23:01 UTC and BoE Greene at 03:00 UTC could shift this read in thin Asian liquidity
ATR near 3 pips means a break of the base needs a range-expanding bar to count
21:31 UTC
Downtrend, stalled into consolidation · RSI 42 · price 1.32047
NY selloff leg to 1.3202, tight post-NY range 1.3202–1.3209.
London's push above the Asian range to 1.3261 failed. From the 1.3236 NY high, price broke the Asian low at 1.3222 and fell to 1.3202 as oil-driven USD demand built ahead of Wednesday's CPI. Since 15:45 UTC it has held a 7-pip consolidation under the 1.3209 range top through rollover, with RSI(14) near 42 and the NY selloff fib barely retraced.
Support: 1.32015, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.32088, 1.32219, 1.32359
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3202 session low and 1.3200 round number extends the NY leg toward 1.3180
Close above the 1.3209 range top opens a retrace toward the 1.3215 fib 38.2% and the 1.3222 asian low
Rejection at the 1.3222 asian low keeps the breakdown intact; reclaiming the 1.3236 ny high negates it
BoE Greene (Tue 03:00 UTC) could break the thin Asia-session range
Lower highs from 1.3261; tight 1.3202–1.3209 box after the NY breakdown.
Cable printed a rejection at the 1.3261 high before London open, then made lower highs as oil-driven USD demand built. NY broke the 1.3215–1.3222 floor and set a 1.3202 session low. Since then price has held a 1.3202–1.3209 consolidation through the rollover, with RSI(14) neutral near 43 and ATR at about 2.7 pips.
Support: 1.32015, 1.3180
Resistance: 1.32088, 1.3222, 1.32377
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.3202 session low and the 1.3200 handle extends the NY leg toward the 1.3180 3m low area
Recovery above the 1.3209 range top and the 1.3222 breakdown level (near 38.2% fib) challenges the lower-high sequence, with the 1.3238 lower high next
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) and BoE's Greene (Tue 03:00 UTC) could jolt the Asian range; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the bigger risk
21:02 UTC
Downtrend, stalled into a tight base · RSI 42 · price 1.32078
Lower highs from the Asian high, Asian low broken in NY, now basing above the NY low.
Cable faded from the 1.3261 Asian high through London, then broke the 1.3220 Asian low during NY hours as oil-driven USD demand built ahead of Wednesday's CPI. It bottomed at the 1.3202 NY low. Since then it has compressed into a 1.3202–1.3209 range under a lower-high trendline, with RSI(14) near 42 and ATR(14) at about 2.7 pips as Asia opens.
Support: 1.32015, 1.3180
Resistance: 1.32088, 1.32196, 1.32314
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3209 range top opens a retest of the broken asian low at 1.3220, near the lower-high trendline
Failure to hold the 1.3202 ny low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.3180 3m low
Reclaim of the fib 50% at 1.3231 would neutralise the lower-high sequence
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) could shift USD tone into London; UK BRC sales at 23:01 UTC are minor
20:47 UTC
Downtrend, stalled into tight late-NY base · RSI 48 · price 1.32074
Lower highs from 1.3261 pre-London high; NY leg to 1.3202, then 7-pip box.
Cable faded from the 1.3261 session high as oil-driven USD demand built ahead of Wednesday's US CPI. The NY session broke the 1.3227 breakdown level and extended to a 1.3202 session low. Since then price has compressed in a 1.3202–1.3209 box, sitting on EMA20 with RSI(14) near 48 and ATR(14) under 3 pips.
Support: 1.32015, 1.3184
Resistance: 1.32088, 1.32269, 1.32612
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.3202 session low and 1.3200 opens the 1.3184 3m low
Close above the 1.3209 range top ends the compression; 1.3227 breakdown level and 38.2% fib near 1.3224 sit above
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) and BoE's Greene (Tue 03:00 UTC) could shift the read into London
20:32 UTC
Downtrend, stalled after NY close · RSI 40 · price 1.32068
Lower highs from London high; tight post-selloff consolidation above day low.
London's push above the Asian high failed at the 1.3261 london high, and NY broke the 1.3220 asian low as oil-driven USD demand built, printing a day low at 1.3202. Since then a 7-pip consolidation between the day low and the 1.3209 range top has held into the post-NY lull, with RSI(14) near 40 and ATR(14) around 3 pips.
Support: 1.3202, 1.3184
Resistance: 1.3209, 1.3220, 1.3261
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3209 range top, then reclaim of the 1.3220 asian low, would mark the first higher high since the selloff
Break of the 1.3202 day low exposes the 1.3184 3m low area
50% retrace of the london high-day low leg sits near 1.3231; rejection below it keeps the lower-high sequence intact
BoE Greene (03:00 UTC) and Fed Waller (07:45 UTC) could break the Asian-session range
Lower highs from 1.3238; tight 1.3202–1.3209 box above the session low.
London open rejected the 1.3261 Asian high. An NY-session sell-off then cut through the 1.3227 London low and the 1.3222 breakdown level as oil-driven USD demand built ahead of Wednesday's CPI. Since 15:45 UTC price has compressed into a 1.3202–1.3209 consolidation just above the 1.3202 session low, with RSI(14) near 40 and ATR down to about 3 pips.
Support: 1.32015, 1.3180
Resistance: 1.32088, 1.3222, 1.32269
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3202 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.3180 3-month low
Close above the 1.3209 range top that also reclaims the 1.3222 breakdown level shifts the read to a corrective bounce, with the 38.2% sell-off fib at 1.3224 overhead
A break of the descending trendline from 1.3238 would mark the first lower-high failure since London
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) could shift this read. US CPI on Wed is the larger event risk
Lower highs from London high; tight base above 1.3202 after Asian-range break.
London's push above the Asian range to 1.3261 failed, and NY broke the 1.3220 Asian low as oil-driven USD demand built ahead of Wednesday's CPI, extending to a 1.3202 session low. Since then price has compressed into a ~7-pip band below the 1.3209 range top late in NY hours. RSI(14) sits near 39 and price is below EMA20/50.
Support: 1.32015, 1.3184
Resistance: 1.32088, 1.32196
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3202 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.3184 3-month low
Close above the 1.3209 range top puts the 1.3220 Asian low, fib 38.2% at 1.3224 and the lower highs trendline near 1.3214 back in play
Reclaiming the 1.3220 Asian low would mark the NY range break as a false break
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
19:47 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 54 · price 1.32074
Lower highs from 1.3261; tight 1.3202–1.3209 range after the NY leg lower.
Cable rejected the London-open high at 1.3261 and broke the Asian low at 1.3220 during NY hours as oil-driven USD demand built ahead of Wednesday's CPI, printing a session low at 1.3202. Since 15:45 UTC it has held a 7-pip box under the 1.3209 range top, below EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral near 54 and ATR down to ~3 pips.
Support: 1.32015, 1.3180
Resistance: 1.32088, 1.32196, 1.32243
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3202 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3180 3-month low area
Reclaim of the 1.3220 Asian low, then the 38.2% fib at 1.3224, would neutralise the NY breakdown
Close above the 1.3209 range top breaks the post-NY compression
Fed's Waller Tue 07:45 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.3261, flat base above session low.
Cable was rejected at 1.3261 at London open and faded through the day. NY broke the Asian low at 1.3220 as oil-driven USD demand built ahead of Wednesday's CPI, printing a session low at 1.3202. Late NY has compressed into a 1.3202–1.3209 band, with a range top at 1.3209, RSI(14) near 37 and ATR(14) about 3.4 pips.
Support: 1.32015, 1.3184
Resistance: 1.32088, 1.32196, 1.32243
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3202 session low extends the downtrend toward the 1.3184 3-month low
Recovery above the 1.3209 range top and the 1.3220 Asian low, now resistance, would neutralise the NY breakdown
Fib 38.2% at 1.3224 caps any bounce in the lower-high sequence
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) and oil/Middle East headlines could shift USD tone before the Wed CPI
19:24 UTC
Downtrend, stalled in late NY · RSI 33 · price 1.32056
Lower highs since London open; tight post-selloff range above 1.3200.
London's early push above the Asian high to 1.3261 failed, and lower highs followed as oil-driven USD demand built ahead of Wednesday's CPI. NY broke the Asian low at 1.3220 and printed a session low at 1.3202. Price has since compressed in a 7-pip range top-capped box at 1.3202–1.3209 into late NY, with RSI(14) near 33 and ATR(14) about 3 pips.
Support: 1.32015, 1.3200, 1.3184
Resistance: 1.32088, 1.32196, 1.32359
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.3209 range top, then back above the 1.3220 Asian low, would turn the broken level into a retest and ease the lower-highs read
Failure to hold the 1.3202 session low and the 1.3200 round number exposes the 1.3184 3m low area
Holding below the NY swing hi at 1.3236 keeps the London-NY lower highs intact
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) is the next scheduled USD risk; BRC sales at 23:01 UTC are minor for this read
19:02 UTC
Downtrend, stalled into a late-NY consolidation · RSI 43 · price 1.32056
Lower highs from 1.3261; tight box 1.3202–1.3209 since 16:00 UTC.
Cable faded from the 1.3261 high just before London in a lower-high sequence as oil-driven USD demand built ahead of Wednesday's CPI. NY then broke the 1.3220 breakdown level, which is the Sunday-open low, and printed a day low at 1.3202. Since 16:00 UTC price has compressed in a 7-pip box capped by the range top at 1.3209, right on the descending trendline from the morning highs, with RSI(14) neutral near 43.
Support: 1.32015, 1.3184
Resistance: 1.32088, 1.3220, 1.32377
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3202 day low extends the downtrend, with the 1.3184 3m low area next.
Close above the 1.3209 range top and descending trendline turns the box into a base; 1.3220 breakdown level is first overhead.
Recovery through the 1.3238 lower high would break the intraday lower-high chain.
BoE Greene (Tue 03:00 UTC) and Fed Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) could shift the read into the Asian range.
18:46 UTC
Downtrend, stalling after NY flush · RSI 34 · price 1.32051
Lower highs from London; tight range above NY low.
Cable faded from the pre-London session high at 1.3261, and the NY session broke the London low at 1.3227 and the Asian low at 1.3220 to print 1.32015 as oil-driven USD demand built ahead of Wednesday's US CPI. Since London close price has compressed in a 7-pip band between the NY low and the 1.3209 range top. RSI(14) sits near 34, below oversold extremes.
Support: 1.32015, 1.3180
Resistance: 1.32088, 1.32196, 1.32269
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3202 ny low extends the downtrend toward the 1.3180 3-month low area
Reclaim of the 1.3209 range top, then the 1.3220 asian low (near the 38.2% fib), would mark the decline as stalling
Acceptance back above the 1.3227 london low and the 50% fib at 1.3231 invalidates the lower-high sequence
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs since 1.3261; tight 1.3202–1.3209 range after NY breakdown.
Cable faded from the 1.3261 pre-London high through the Asian low at 1.3220 during NY hours as oil-driven USD demand built ahead of Wednesday's CPI, printing a session low at 1.3202. Price has since compressed in a 7-pip range just above the round number, capped by the descending trendline and range top near 1.3209, with RSI(14) flat in the mid-30s.
Support: 1.32015, 1.3200, 1.3182
Resistance: 1.32088, 1.32196, 1.32269
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3202 session low and 1.3200 round number exposes the 1.3180–1.3184 three-month low area
Close back above 1.3220 (Asian low) puts the range break in question and opens the 1.3227 London low / fib 38.2% near 1.3224
Fed's Waller Tue 07:45 UTC and Middle East/oil headlines could shift the read; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger risk
Lower highs from 1.3261 Asia high; NY broke the Asian range and London low, now a tight base.
Cable faded from the 1.3261 high before the London open. In the first hours of NY it broke the 1.3227 london low and the 1.3220 asian low, reaching a 1.3202 session low as the USD firmed on oil and Middle East headlines ahead of Wednesday's CPI. Since 15:45 UTC it has compressed between 1.3202 and the 1.3209 bounce high, with RSI(14) near 33 and ATR at about 4 pips.
Support: 1.32015, 1.3180
Resistance: 1.32088, 1.32196, 1.32269
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3209 bounce high would break the late-NY micro range
Reclaim of 1.3220 asian low, then 1.3224 (38.2% fib of the selloff), invalidates the breakdown read
Failure to hold the 1.3202 session low exposes the 1.3180 3-month low area
Waller Tue 07:45 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.3261 session high; tight consolidation 1.3202–1.3209 after the NY leg lower.
Cable rejected the 1.3261 session high just before London open. During NY hours it broke the London low at 1.3227 and the Sunday low at 1.3220 as oil-driven USD demand built into Wednesday's CPI, printing a 1.3202 swing low. Late NY has compressed into a 7-pip consolidation under the 1.3209 cons high, with RSI(14) off oversold near 31 and ATR(14) at ~4 pips.
Support: 1.32015, 1.3180
Resistance: 1.32088, 1.3220, 1.32269
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3209 cons high turns the consolidation into a bounce toward the 1.3220 sunday low
Reclaim of the 1.3227 london low would neutralise the NY breakdown
Failure to hold the 1.3202 swing low exposes the 1.3180 3m low
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC and oil/Iran headlines could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since London open; Asian range broken lower in NY, small base above 1.3200.
Cable has printed lower highs since the 1.3261 London-open high, and NY hours broke the Asian range at the 1.3220 asia low on oil-driven USD demand ahead of Wednesday's CPI. The selloff ran to a 1.3202 session low. The late-NY bounce stalled at the 1.3209 bounce high, leaving price basing just above 1.3200 in thin US-holiday trade with RSI(14) near 35.
Support: 1.32015, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.32088, 1.32196, 1.32266
What it said to watch
Close back above the 1.3220 asia low reopens the broken Asian range; the 1.3227 lower high and descending trendline sit just above, near the 38.2% fib of the selloff
Failure to hold the 1.3202 session low exposes the 1.3184-1.3180 3m low area
Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) and oil/Iran headlines could shift this read before Asia/London
Lower highs from London; Asian low broken, tight base above 1.3200.
Cable faded from the 1.3261 session high set just before London open. The NY sell-off cut through the 1.3220 Asian low to a 1.3202 session low as oil-driven USD demand built ahead of Wednesday's CPI. Late NY price is basing in a 1.3202–1.3209 band with RSI(14) near 30, and the 1.3209 bounce high is capping the base.
Support: 1.32015, 1.3180
Resistance: 1.32088, 1.3220, 1.32269
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3220 asian low, then the 1.3227 london low, breaks the lower-high trendline and neutralises the NY sell-off
Failure to hold the 1.3202 session low exposes the 1.3180 3m low
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
17:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend, basing after London close · RSI 27 · price 1.32075
Lower highs from the Asia session high at 1.3261; range floor broken during NY hours, tight consolidation above 1.3200.
Cable broke the 1.3215 range floor and the 1.3227 London low in the first hours of NY as oil-driven USD demand built ahead of Wednesday's CPI. The sell-off from the 1.3238 NY high printed a 1.3202 session low, and price is now coiling just above the 1.3200 round number with RSI(14) near 27.
Support: 1.32015, 1.3200, 1.3184
Resistance: 1.3215, 1.32269, 1.32377
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 1.3215 range floor (38.2% of the NY sell-off fib) would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.3202 session low and the 1.3200 round number exposes the 1.3184 3m low area
Reclaiming the 1.3227 London low, then the 1.3238 NY high, negates the intraday downtrend read
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) is the next USD catalyst ahead of Wednesday's US CPI
16:46 UTC
Downtrend, extended into late NY · RSI 27 · price 1.32053
Lower highs from day high; Asian low broken, basing above session low.
Cable has printed lower highs since the 1.3261 day high just before London open. After the NY open it broke the London range and the 1.3220 asian low, sliding to a 1.3202 session low as oil-driven USD demand built ahead of Wednesday's CPI. Late NY is basing just above that low with RSI(14) near 27, and the selloff's 38.2% fib sits near 1.3224.
Support: 1.3202, 1.3180
Resistance: 1.3220, 1.3236, 1.3261
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.3202 session low exposes the 1.3180 3-month low cited in the GBP digest
M15 close back above the 1.3220 asian low reopens the London range; the lower-highs line near 1.3227 sits just above
Reclaim of the 1.3236 NY high breaks the lower-high sequence
Fed's Hammack (16:50 UTC) is the next headline; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.3261 Asian high; Asian and London lows broken in NY.
GBP/USD faded from the 1.3261 Asian high through a chain of lower highs, then broke the 1.3220 Asian low and 1.3227 London low during NY hours as USD turned bid on Middle East and oil headlines. Price is stalling after London close at a 1.3202 session low, just above the 1.3200 round number, with RSI(14) near 23 and holiday-thinned liquidity.
Support: 1.3202, 1.3200, 1.3184
Resistance: 1.3220, 1.3227, 1.3238
What it said to watch
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift USD tone in thin US-holiday trade
Failure to hold the 1.3202 session low and 1.3200 round number exposes the 1.3184 3-month low
Recovery back above the 1.3220 Asian low and 1.3227 London low would turn the break into a false break
M15 close above the 1.3238 lower high, near the 61.8% retrace of the Asian high-to-low drop, breaks the lower-highs trendline
Lower highs since 1.3261 pre-London peak; Asian range broken lower.
The NY leg broke the Asian low near 1.3218 and the 1.3215 range floor as oil and Middle East headlines revived USD demand, carving a lower-high chain from the 1.3236 NY high to a 1.3202 session low. RSI(14) sits near 24 and price is stalling just above the 1.3200 round number into the London close.
Support: 1.32015, 1.3200, 1.3184
Resistance: 1.32183, 1.32269, 1.32359
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.3218 asian low would turn the break into a false break
Acceptance below the 1.3200 round number exposes the 3-month low near 1.3184
Recovery through the 1.3227 london low and the 1.3236 NY high negates the lower-high sequence
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift the USD read in thin holiday trade
16:01 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after NY-session leg lower · RSI 21 · price 1.32051
Lower highs from 1.3261; 1.3227 range floor and Asian low broken.
GBP/USD broke the 1.3227 range floor, the Asian low at 1.3220 and the 1.3215 floor flagged in the digest during NY hours. It slid to a 1.3202 session low, just above the 1.3200 round number, as oil-driven safe-haven USD demand extended the fade from the 1.3261 high. RSI(14) near 21 is oversold, and thin US-holiday liquidity amplified the leg, which runs on a clean sequence of lower highs.
Support: 1.32015, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.32196, 1.32269, 1.32359
What it said to watch
A close back above the Asian low at 1.3220 and the 1.3227 range floor would mark the range break as a false break
The lower-highs trendline from 1.3261 and the 38.2% of the selloff fib (~1.3224) cluster near 1.3225. Failure there keeps the downtrend sequence intact
An M15 close below the 1.3202 session low and the 1.3200 round number would extend the lower-low chain
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and BRC retail sales at 23:01 UTC could shift this read in thin holiday trade
15:46 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating into NY session · RSI 23 · price 1.32052
Lower highs since 13:45 UTC; London low and Asia low both broken.
The NY session broke the 1.3227–1.3238 London range and cut through the 1.3220 asia low as USD firmed on safe-haven demand ahead of Wednesday's US CPI. Seven straight lower highs from the 1.3236 ny high form a descending line. RSI(14) near 23 is stretched, with price now within about 5 pips of the 1.3200 round number.
Support: 1.3200, 1.3180
Resistance: 1.3220, 1.3227, 1.3236
What it said to watch
A move back above the 1.3220 asia low turns the breakdown into a false break.
The 1.3200 round number, then the 1.3180 prior low, are the next downside references.
A close above the descending line and the 1.3236 ny high negates the NY sell-off structure; the 1.3227 london low is the first hurdle.
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC; thin US-holiday liquidity can exaggerate moves.
Lower highs from 1.3261; NY broke London and Asian lows.
A push through the Asian high to 1.3261 just before London was rejected. Lower highs since then have fed an NY-session range break through the 1.3227 London low and the 1.3220 Asian low as USD firmed on safe-haven demand. Price now sits on the 1.3210 session low with RSI(14) near 26 in holiday-thin liquidity, and the 1.3215 broken floor is now overhead.
Support: 1.3210, 1.3200, 1.3180
Resistance: 1.3215, 1.3220, 1.3227
What it said to watch
A close back above the 1.3220 Asian low would turn the NY range break into a false break
Acceptance below the 1.3200 psych level opens the 1.3180 prior lows
A break above the lower highs trendline, near 1.3230, negates the intraday downtrend
Fed Hammack at 16:50 UTC; thin US-holiday liquidity can exaggerate moves
A rebound into the 1.3261 drop fib (38.2% near 1.3230) that fails at the London low keeps the lower-high chain intact
15:16 UTC
Downtrend, extending into NY · RSI 31 · price 1.32143
Lower highs since London high; Asian low broken.
London briefly pushed above the Asian range to the 1.3261 London high, then reversed into a steady lower-high sequence, with the latest lower high at 1.3236. NY has broken the Asian low at 1.3220 and printed a fresh session low at 1.3214 as USD firmed on Middle East/oil safe-haven demand in holiday-thin liquidity. RSI(14) is near 31, not yet extreme.
Support: 1.3214, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3220, 1.3236, 1.3261
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.3220 Asian low would mark the NY break as a false break
Failure to hold the 1.3214 session low exposes the 1.3200 round number
A close above the 1.3236 lower high breaks the downtrend line sequence
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift this read in thin holiday trade; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger risk
15:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend, extending into NY · RSI 33 · price 1.32183
Lower highs since 1.3261 rejection; London low broken in NY.
The pre-London spike to the 1.3261 day high met rejection at the London open, and the pair has printed lower highs since, the latest at 1.3238. Early NY broke the 1.3227 London low and the Sunday open low as USD firmed on Middle East tensions in thin holiday liquidity. Price now sits at 1.3218, just above the 1.3215 range floor, with RSI(14) near 33.
Support: 1.3215, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3227, 1.3238, 1.3261
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.3227 london low would mark the NY break as a false break
Failure to hold the 1.3215 range floor exposes the 1.3200 round number
Break above the lower-highs trendline and 1.3238 lower high invalidates the intraday downtrend read
Fed Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift USD in thin holiday trade
14:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since early Europe · RSI 41 · price 1.32247
Lower-high chain from 1.3261; session low 1.3222 sits just above the Asian low.
The early-Europe push to the 1.3261 session high on softer US yields was rejected as the USD recovered. London and thin, US-holiday NY hours have carved lower highs down to a 1.3222 session low, just above the 1.3220 Asian low. RSI(14) near 41 shows no extreme, and bars are compressing at around 5-6 pips.
Support: 1.32215, 1.32196, 1.3215
Resistance: 1.32359, 1.32612
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3220 Asian low exposes the 1.3215 range floor and extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the 1.3236 lower high breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high chain
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and BRC retail sales at 23:01 UTC are minor; US CPI Wed is the main risk to this range
14:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London · RSI 40 · price 1.32232
Lower highs and lower lows from the London high; NY broke the 1.3227 range low.
The drop from the London session high at 1.3261 has printed a clean lower-high chain. The NY session then broke the 1.3227–1.3238 range to trade just above the Asian low at 1.3220 as the USD firmed into Wednesday's CPI. RSI(14) near 40 is not stretched, and holiday-thin US liquidity keeps the ATR at around 5–6 pips.
Support: 1.3220, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3227, 1.3238, 1.3261
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the asian low at 1.3220 extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3200 round number
Recovery back above the 1.3227 range low and the lower highs trendline would mark the break as a false break
M15 close above the range top at 1.3238 breaks the lower-high chain
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC; US holiday liquidity can exaggerate moves
14:01 UTC
Downtrend from London open, now flattening · RSI 43 · price 1.32296
Lower highs since 06:30 UTC, compressing 1.3227–1.3238.
The London open spike to the 1.3261 London high was rejected, and a chain of lower highs followed as the USD recovered on caution ahead of US CPI. Since late London, price has compressed between the 1.3227 session low and the 1.3238 lower high, under the falling trendline and both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 43 in a thin US-holiday NY session.
Support: 1.3227, 1.3220
Resistance: 1.3238, 1.3261
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.3227 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.3220 Monday low.
A close above the 1.3238 lower high and the falling trendline breaks the descending sequence, with 1.3261 above.
Fed Hammack at 16:50 UTC and the BRC print at 23:01 UTC are the near-term risk; US CPI on Wed carries more weight.
13:47 UTC
Intraday down, now compressing · RSI 45 · price 1.32323
Lower highs from London high, tight 1.3227–1.3238 band.
The early-London push to the 1.3261 London high briefly cleared the 1.3253 Asian high. That false break was rejected, and price bled into a chain of lower highs as the USD recovered through Europe on oil and Middle East headlines ahead of Wednesday's CPI. Into the first hour of NY, the 1.3227 session low is holding and price is compressed beneath the 1.3238 lower high, with ATR(14) shrinking to about 5 pips on thin US-holiday liquidity.
Support: 1.3227, 1.3220
Resistance: 1.3238, 1.3253, 1.3261
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3227 session low extends the lower-high sequence and puts the 1.3220 Asian low in play
M15 close above the 1.3238 lower high breaks the compression; the 1.3253 Asian high and the 1.3261 London high sit above
A recovery to the 38.2% retracement of the London high to session low drop (~1.3240) would neutralise the intraday lower-high read
Fed Hammack at 16:50 UTC could jolt a thin, holiday-affected NY session
Lower highs since the early-London false break; tight base above the 1.3227 session low inside the Asian range.
An early-London spike to the 1.3261 session high above the Asian range top failed. Price has since printed lower highs under a descending trendline and sits back in the lower half of the Asian range. The 1.3227 session low has held into the first hour of NY with ATR near 5 pips, as USD caution ahead of Wednesday's CPI and holiday-thin US trade keep ranges tight.
Support: 1.3227, 1.3220
Resistance: 1.3238, 1.3244, 1.3261
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3238 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence, with the 1.3244 Friday high and 50% fib next
Failure to hold the 1.3227 session low exposes the 1.3220 Asian low
Reclaim of the 1.3261 session high would negate the false-break read
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could jolt thin holiday liquidity
Lower highs from 1.3261, tight 1.3227–1.3238 base.
The pre-London push to the 1.3261 session high was a false break of the 1.3253 Asian high. Supply capped it from the London open, and a sequence of lower highs pulled price back through the Asian range to a 1.3227 session low. Early NY is compressing between 1.3227 and the 1.3238 lower high, below EMA20/EMA50 with RSI(14) at 42, as the USD stays firm into Wednesday's CPI in thin US-holiday liquidity.
Support: 1.3227, 1.3220
Resistance: 1.3238, 1.3253, 1.3261
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3227 session low exposes the 1.3220 Asian low, the Monday gap-down low
Close above the 1.3238 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 38.2% of the session drop (~1.3240) and the 1.3253 Asian high in play
Reclaim of the 1.3261 session high would negate the lower-high sequence
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC; thin holiday liquidity can exaggerate moves ahead of US CPI on Wed 12:30 UTC
13:02 UTC
Intraday downtrend, stalling into a tight range · RSI 43 · price 1.32327
Lower highs since London open, compressing above the 1.3227 London low.
The pre-London spike high at 1.3261 was rejected at London open, and the pair has since printed a chain of lower highs from the 1.3247 London high, capped by the lower-highs trendline. Price is compressing between the 1.3227 London low and the 1.3238 lower high, below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 43. USD firmed on caution ahead of Wednesday's CPI, with volumes thin on the US holiday.
Support: 1.32269, 1.32196
Resistance: 1.32377, 1.32466, 1.32612
What it said to watch
M15 close below the london low at 1.3227 extends the lower-low chain toward the asian low at 1.3220
M15 close above the 1.3238 lower high and the trendline breaks the London lower-highs sequence, putting the london high at 1.3247 back in view
Rejection again at 1.3238 keeps the compression range intact below the trendline
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC in holiday-thin trade could jolt this tight range
London lower highs and lower lows off 1.3261, now basing 1.3227–1.3238 inside the Asian range.
The pre-London spike to the 1.3261 session high met rejection. London then sold off to a 1.3227 session low, taking price back inside the Asian range (1.3220 low to 1.3253 high) as the USD firmed on haven demand. Price is now basing between 1.3227 and the 1.3238 lower high and pressing the London trendline into the first hour of NY, with US-holiday liquidity thin and RSI(14) neutral near 48.
Support: 1.32269, 1.32196
Resistance: 1.32377, 1.32527, 1.32612
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.3238 lower high and the London trendline would break the sell-off sequence, with the 38.2% fib near 1.3240 and the 1.3253 Asian high above
Failure to hold the 1.3227 session low would extend the lower-low chain toward the 1.3220 Asian low
BoE Mann at 12:50 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the London-open rejection, compressing above the session low.
London opened with a rejection of the 1.3261 session high, and GBPUSD has stepped down in lower highs to a 1.3227 session low as the USD recovered on pre-CPI caution, in thin holiday trade. The noon bounce stalled at the 1.3238 lower high, below the 38.2% fib, and price is holding just above the session low with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 1.32269, 1.32196
Resistance: 1.32377, 1.32468, 1.32612
What it said to watch
BoE Mann at 12:50 UTC could jolt the pair out of the 1.3227–1.3238 band
M15 close above the 1.3238 lower high and the trendline breaks the lower-high sequence; the 1.3247 London high is next above
Loss of the 1.3227 session low exposes the 1.3220 Asian low
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC is a late-NY risk to the read
12:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend since London open, bouncing · RSI 48 · price 1.32353
Lower highs from 1.3261 session high; base at 1.3227 session low.
Pre-London push to the 1.3261 session high was a false break of the Asian high. As the USD recovered on pre-CPI caution, London ground out lower highs down to the 1.3227 session low at 11:00 UTC. Late-London bounce is now testing the 1.3238 lower high, at the 23.6% of the London selloff fib, with price pinned on EMA20 and ATR(14) compressed near 6 pips.
Support: 1.3227, 1.3220
Resistance: 1.3238, 1.3247, 1.3261
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3238 lower high opens the 1.3247 swing high (≈50% of the London selloff fib)
Failure to hold the 1.3227 session low exposes the 1.3220 asia low
BoE Mann at 12:50 UTC could materially shift this read
US holiday keeps NY session liquidity thin; Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC
12:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend from the London high · RSI 36 · price 1.3229
Lower highs and lower lows since the 06:30 UTC peak.
London open broke the asian high at 1.3253 and reversed off the london high at 1.3261. That false break has since unwound into a chain of lower highs, reaching a session low of 1.3227 late in the London session as the USD recovered on haven demand. RSI(14) sits near 36 with price below EMA20/50, and the asian low at 1.3220 and friday low at 1.3206 lie just underneath.
Support: 1.3227, 1.3220, 1.3206
Resistance: 1.3240, 1.3253, 1.3261
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3240 fib 38.2 and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 1.3227 session low exposes the 1.3220 asian low, then the 1.3206 friday low
Reclaim of the asian high at 1.3253 and the london high at 1.3261 would negate the false break
BoE Mann at 12:50 UTC and Fed Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift this read; NY session liquidity is thin with US holiday
11:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend since London open · RSI 33 · price 1.3229
Lower highs and lower lows from the 1.3261 session high, pressing the session low.
The pre-London push to the 1.3261 session high met rejection at the London open. Each London bounce has since printed a lower high under a falling London trendline, with price now sitting on the 1.3227 session low and RSI(14) near 33. USD recovered on Middle East caution ahead of Wednesday's CPI, and US holiday-thin trade is keeping ATR near 5 pips.
Support: 1.32269, 1.32196, 1.32056
Resistance: 1.32326, 1.3244, 1.32612
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.3227 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.3220 Asian low, then the 1.3206 Friday low
A break above the London trendline and the 1.3233 lower high would interrupt the London downtrend; the 50% fib of the London drop and the Friday high sit together at 1.3244
BoE Mann at 12:50 UTC: any pushback on November hike pricing could shift this read
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC is the next USD headline risk in thin holiday trade
Lower highs and lower lows since the pre-London high.
Thin Monday trade with the US on holiday. Price pushed above the Asian range top at 1.3253 to a 1.3261 session high, and that false break reversed as USD firmed on Middle East caution ahead of Wednesday's CPI. London has since printed a steady lower-high chain off the swing high at 1.3247 and the lower high at 1.3238, reaching a 1.3227 session low near the 78.6% retrace of the Asian rally, with price now pressing the descending trendline.
Support: 1.3227, 1.3220, 1.3206
Resistance: 1.3238, 1.3247, 1.3261
What it said to watch
M15 close above the descending trendline and the 1.3238 lower high breaks the lower-high chain; the swing high at 1.3247 is the next cap
Failure to hold the 1.3227 session low exposes the 1.3220 Asian low, then the 1.3206 Friday low
BoE Mann at 12:50 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift this read in holiday-thinned liquidity
11:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London open · RSI 33 · price 1.32289
Lower-high/lower-low chain from the 1.3261 session high; testing the session low.
Monday's Asian rally was rejected at the London open after a spike to the 1.3261 session high. Since then a steady lower-high chain has erased the gain, and price is pressing the 1.3227 session low just above the 1.3220 Asian low. RSI(14) near 33 shows soft momentum but is not oversold, and trade is thin with the US on holiday.
Support: 1.32269, 1.32196, 1.32056
Resistance: 1.32373, 1.32406, 1.32612
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3237 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain; the 1.3240 prior pivot aligns with the 38.2% fib
Failure to hold the 1.3220 Asian low opens the Friday low at 1.3206
BoE Mann at 12:50 UTC could shift November hike pricing and this read
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC is the next USD-side risk in otherwise holiday-thin trade
11:02 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 40 · price 1.32318
Pre-London spike to 1.3261 rejected; London lower highs and lower lows.
Asia lifted GBP/USD from the 1.3220 asian low to 1.3252 on softer US yields. A pre-London spike to the 1.3261 session high was rejected, and London has since capped at 1.3247 (london high) with a run of lower highs, the latest at 1.3238. Price is sitting on the 1.3229 london low in thin US-holiday trade, with RSI near 40 and EMA20/50 overhead.
Support: 1.3229, 1.3220, 1.3206
Resistance: 1.3238, 1.3247, 1.3261
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3229 london low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.3220 asian low, then the 1.3206 friday low
Close above the 1.3238 lower high and the London trendline breaks the descending sequence; 1.3247 london high is the next cap
Reclaiming the 1.3261 session high would negate the rejection
BoE Mann at 12:50 UTC and Fed Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift this read; US holiday liquidity is thin
Lower highs and lower lows through London after a rejection at the 1.3261 session high.
A pre-London push above the 1.3253 asian high to a 1.3261 session high reversed at London open, a false break. Since then the pair has printed lower highs from 1.3247 to 1.3238 and is pressing the 1.3231 session low, with RSI(14) near 38 and US-holiday volumes keeping ranges near 6 pips per bar. That leaves price mid-way inside the Asian range and well off the 1.3220 asian low.
Support: 1.3231, 1.3220, 1.3206
Resistance: 1.3241, 1.3253, 1.3261
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.3241 breaks the lower-highs sequence and shifts the read back to the 1.3253 asian high
Failure to hold the 1.3231 session low exposes the 1.3220 asian low, then the 1.3206 friday low
BoE Mann at 12:50 UTC could move November hike pricing and this read
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC lands in holiday-thin US trade
Lower highs pressing onto a flat 1.3233 floor inside the Asian range.
A pre-London push above the 1.3253 asian high to a 1.3261 session high was rejected at the open. London has since carved a chain of lower highs, the latest at 1.3240, down to the 1.3233 london low, which has held four tests and sits near the 61.8% retracement of the overnight rally. RSI(14) is near 38 and ATR(14) is around 6.7 pips, with US holiday trade keeping liquidity thin.
Support: 1.32327, 1.32196
Resistance: 1.32406, 1.32527, 1.32612
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3233 london low exposes the 1.3220 asian low
Close above the 1.3240 lower high and the lower highs trendline breaks the compression
Recovery through the 1.3253 asian high needed to revisit the 1.3261 session high
BoE Mann at 12:50 UTC and Fed Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift this read
10:17 UTC
Intraday down since London open, stalling at a floor · RSI 36 · price 1.32344
Lower highs pressing a flat 1.3233 floor.
The pre-London push through the 1.3253 asian high to a 1.3261 session high failed. London has since unwound it to the 1.3233 session low, a lower-highs sequence pressing a flat floor near the 61.8% retracement of the overnight rally. Breeden's 09:30 UTC remarks left little mark, and the US holiday keeps liquidity thin.
Support: 1.3233, 1.3220
Resistance: 1.3240, 1.3253, 1.3261
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3233 session low exposes the 1.3220 asian low
M15 close above 1.3240 breaks the lower-highs line and neutralises the London fade
Reclaim of the 1.3253 asian high would put the 1.3261 session high back in play
BoE Mann at 12:50 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift this read
10:02 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since London open · RSI 37 · price 1.32332
Asia rally rejected at 1.3261, London lower highs into flat 1.3233 support.
The Asia rally from the 1.3220 asian low was rejected at the 1.3261 asian high. London has since printed a string of lower highs under a descending trendline and is back on the 1.3233 london low, below the 61.8% fib of the Asia move. Breeden at 09:30 UTC drew only a brief bounce, and US-holiday liquidity keeps ATR near 6-7 pips.
Support: 1.3233, 1.3229, 1.3220
Resistance: 1.3241, 1.3254, 1.3261
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3233 london low exposes the fib 78.6 at 1.3229 and then the 1.3220 asian low
Close above the 1.3241 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the London lower-high sequence, with the 1.3254 london open high next
BoE Mann at 12:50 UTC and Fed Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift this read in thin holiday trade
09:47 UTC
Intraday fade, lower highs since London open · RSI 45 · price 1.3237
Failed break above Asian high, now pressing Asian range low.
The pre-London push through the 1.3253 asian high to a 1.3261 session high was rejected. London has faded on lower highs since and is now testing the Asian range low, with a marginal london low at 1.3233. Ranges are tight with US, Japan and Canada on holiday, and Breeden at 09:30 UTC drew only a brief dip-and-recover.
Support: 1.3233, 1.3220
Resistance: 1.3247, 1.3253, 1.3261
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3233 london low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3220 sunday low
M15 close above 1.3247 breaks the lower highs line and puts the 1.3253 asian high back in play
Rejection at the 1.3261 session high stands as long as price holds below the asian high
BoE Mann at 12:50 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could materially shift this read
09:32 UTC
Intraday downswing, lower highs since London open · RSI 37 · price 1.32327
Failed break above Asian high, now back in lower half of Asian range.
London open pushed through the Asian high at 1.3253 to a 1.3261 London high, then rejected. Since then a run of lower highs, the latest at 1.3244, has driven price back below the 61.8% fib of the Asia-London leg to a 1.3233 session low. Holiday-thinned liquidity (Japan, US, Canada off) and RSI(14) near 37 leave the 1.3230 round number as the next shelf, ATR ~6.6 pips.
Support: 1.3230, 1.32196, 1.32056
Resistance: 1.3244, 1.32527, 1.32612
What it said to watch
BoE Breeden (09:30 UTC, now) and Mann (12:50 UTC) could break the intraday band either way
M15 close below the 1.3220 Asian low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 1.3206 Friday low
Recovery above the 1.3244 lower high breaks the descending trendline and neutralises the London rejection
Reclaiming the 1.3253 Asian high would turn the false break into a retest of the 1.3261 London high
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC; thin holiday liquidity can exaggerate moves
Lower highs off a 1.3261 false break above the Asian high, holding the 1.3235 floor.
A pre-London push cleared the asian high at 1.3253 and was rejected at the 1.3261 session high, giving back almost the full pre-London leg. Price now sits at the 1.3235 london low, which also held twice in London, beneath a run of lower highs near 1.3247. RSI(14) is neutral at ~46 and ATR is ~7 pips in holiday-thinned US/Japan liquidity.
Support: 1.3235, 1.3220
Resistance: 1.3247, 1.3253, 1.3261
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3235 london low breaks the session floor and exposes the 1.3220 gap low from the Monday open
Recovery through the 1.3247 lower highs line reopens the 1.3253 asian high and the 1.3261 session high
BoE Breeden at 09:30 UTC (Mann 12:50 UTC): a hike-backing or patience tone could break the current band
Holding above the 1.3235 london low while under 1.3247 keeps the read as a tight intraday range
Failed break above Asian high, lower highs into 1.3235 session low.
A push through the 1.3253 Asian high to a 1.3261 session high ahead of London reversed, and price has given back the move to the 1.3235 session low. That low has held twice and sits at the 61.8% fib of the Asian low to session high leg. Lower highs at 1.3247 cap the bounce, with RSI(14) near 48, price below both EMAs and trade thin with the US and Japan on holiday.
Support: 1.3235, 1.3220
Resistance: 1.3247, 1.3253, 1.3261
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.3235 session low exposes the 1.3220 asian low
Recovery above the 1.3247 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline and brings the 1.3253 asian high back into view
BoE Breeden at 09:30 UTC and Mann at 12:50 UTC could shift November hike pricing and this read
08:46 UTC
Intraday range, faded from pre-London high · RSI 50 · price 1.32393
False break above Asian high, lower highs since London open.
A pre-London push cleared the Asian high at 1.3253 to a 1.3261 session high, then reversed at London open. Price is back near the 78.6% retracement of that leg, with lower highs at 1.3247 and the 1.3235 swing low holding twice. Holiday-thinned trade keeps GBP range-bound vs USD near 1.3240.
Support: 1.32346, 1.32196
Resistance: 1.32468, 1.32527, 1.32612
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3235 swing low opens the 1.3220 sunday low
Recovery above the 1.3247 lower high puts the 1.3253 asian high back in play
BoE Breeden at 09:30 UTC and Mann at 12:50 UTC could shift Nov hike pricing and this read
Failed pre-London push, lower highs above 1.3235 london low.
The pre-London push through the asian high at 1.3253 to a session high of 1.3261 reversed at London open, giving back about 80% of the 05:15–06:30 UTC rally to the 1.3235 london low. Since then a lower high near 1.3247 has capped price, which sits near the middle of the 1.3215–1.3260 band as softer US yields lift GBP in thin US-holiday trade.
Support: 1.3235, 1.3220
Resistance: 1.3247, 1.3253, 1.3261
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3235 london low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 1.3220 asia low
Recovery above the 1.3247 lower high and back through the 1.3253 asian high would neutralise the false break
A break of the lower highs trendline from the 1.3261 session high would change the read
BoE Breeden 09:30 UTC and Mann 12:50 UTC could shift November hike pricing and move GBP within the session range
US holiday means a thin NY session; Fed Hammack 16:50 UTC is the late-session USD risk
False break above Asian high, lower highs, testing swing low.
The pre-London push cleared the Asian high at 1.3253 to a session high of 1.3261. Supply stepped in through the London open and erased the entire leg, leaving lower highs at 1.3247. Price now sits on the 1.3235 swing low, with holiday-thin US/Japan liquidity and softer US yields keeping the move contained.
Support: 1.3235, 1.3220, 1.3206
Resistance: 1.3247, 1.3253, 1.3261
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3235 swing low completes a full retrace of the London leg and opens the 1.3220 sunday low, then the 1.3206 friday low
Recovery above the 1.3247 lower highs puts the asian high at 1.3253 and the 1.3261 session high back in play
BoE Breeden at 09:30 UTC and Mann at 12:50 UTC could shift November hike pricing and the intraday read
Monday's Asian session gapped lower and then climbed from the 1.3220 Asian low, helped by softer US yields in holiday-thin trade. A push before the London open to the 1.3261 session high briefly cleared the 1.3253 Asian high. The London open rejected it back to the 1.3239 London low, which leaves a false break. Price is now flat near 1.3246 with RSI(14) at 50, and the rising higher-low line from 1.3220 through 1.3235 has met the London low.
Support: 1.32394, 1.32346, 1.32196
Resistance: 1.32527, 1.32612, 1.3280
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.3253 asian high negates the false-break read and reopens the 1.3261 session high
Failure to hold the 1.3239 london low breaks the rising higher-low line and exposes the 1.3235 higher low, then the 1.3220 asian low
Range top at 1.3280 caps the broader three-week box
BoE Breeden 09:30 UTC and Mann 12:50 UTC could shift November hike pricing and this read
US holiday liquidity is thin, so session range extensions may lack follow-through
07:47 UTC
Higher lows intact, momentum stalled at London open · RSI 45 · price 1.32412
Failed push above Asian high; pullback testing rising lows.
A pre-London push swept the Asian high at 1.3253 to a 1.3261 session high. The London open rejected it back to a 1.3240 London low, about 78.6% of the 1.3235–1.3261 leg, as the soft-yield USD drift ran out of follow-through. Price sits just under EMA50 on the rising trendline from the 1.3220 Monday low, with RSI(14) at 45.
Support: 1.3240, 1.32346, 1.32196
Resistance: 1.32527, 1.32612
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3235 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising trendline
Reclaim of the 1.3253 Asian high puts the 1.3261 session high back in play
BoE Breeden at 09:30 UTC could materially shift this read on November hike pricing
Thin holiday liquidity in US and Japan may exaggerate moves off the London low
Higher lows from the Asian low; false break above the Asian high.
A pre-London push cleared the 1.3253 Asian high to a 1.3261 session high, near the 1.3260 range top, then reversed at the London open. The drop stalled at the 1.3240 London low, about a 61.8% retrace of the 1.3235–1.3261 leg, with the rising line off the 1.3220 Asian low still intact on the softer-yield USD backdrop; RSI(14) is neutral near 48.
Support: 1.3240, 1.32346, 1.32196
Resistance: 1.32527, 1.32612
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3240 London low and the rising line exposes the 1.3235 swing low
Recovery back above the 1.3253 Asian high puts the 1.3261 session high back in play
BoE Breeden (09:30 UTC) and Mann (12:50 UTC) could reprice November hike odds; the US holiday thins NY-session liquidity
False break above Asian high, back inside Asian range.
On a holiday-thin Monday with yields easing, GBPUSD climbed from the 1.3220 Sunday low and pushed through the 1.3253 Asian high to a 1.3261 pre-London high. The London open bar rejected that move hard, leaving a false break and taking price back to 1.3243. That is about a 68% retrace of the 1.3235 swing low to 1.3261 pre-London leg, with the 1.3241 London low the first floor and RSI(14) neutral near 47.
Support: 1.3241, 1.3235, 1.3220
Resistance: 1.3253, 1.3261, 1.3280
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3241 London low exposes the 1.3235 swing low and the rising Sunday low trendline
Recovery and hold above the 1.3253 Asian high negates the false-break read and reopens 1.3261
1.3280 three-week range top remains the cap above the pre-London high
BoE Breeden 09:30 UTC and Mann 12:50 UTC could materially shift this read
07:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher lows since Asia open · RSI 59 · price 1.32529
Asian range high broken pre-London, now retesting it.
Pre-London buying cleared the Asian high at 1.3252 and Friday's 1.3247 peak, setting a session high at 1.3261 before easing back to retest the breakout area at London open. Monday's push tracks a softer USD on easing yields; RSI(14) is neutral near 59 and the higher-lows line from the 1.3220 Asian low is intact.
Support: 1.3252, 1.3235, 1.3220
Resistance: 1.3261, 1.3280
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.3252 asian high turns the breakout into a false break and exposes the 1.3235 swing low
M15 close above the 1.3261 session high opens the path to the 1.3280 range top
Break of the higher-lows line toward the 1.3220 asian low negates the intraday uptrend read
BoE's Breeden at 09:30 UTC could materially shift this read
06:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, first pullback after London push · RSI 60 · price 1.32525
Higher lows since Monday open; Asian range high broken, now under retest.
Monday opened with a ~10-pip gap lower to 1.3220. Since then the pair has built higher lows along the Asia trendline as softer US yields weighed on USD. London open broke the Asian high at 1.3253, cleared the Friday high at 1.3247 and tagged 1.3261. Rejection there has pulled price back onto the Asian high for a retest, with RSI(14) cooling to ~60.
Support: 1.3253, 1.3247, 1.3235
Resistance: 1.3261, 1.3280
What it said to watch
Holding 1.3247–1.3253 (friday high / asian high, near the 50–61.8% London leg fib) keeps the breakout intact; an M15 close below 1.3247 reads as a false break back into the Asian range
Loss of the 1.3235 swing low and the Asia trendline ends the higher-low sequence
An M15 close above the 1.3261 London high opens the path to the 1.3280 range top
BoE's Breeden at 09:30 UTC, with hike odds ~83% priced, could materially shift this read
06:32 UTC
Uptrend, accelerating into London open · RSI 69 · price 1.32584
Higher low at 1.3235, break above the Asian range high.
Late in the Asia session, the pre-London leg off the 1.3235 swing low cleared the Asian high at 1.3253 and Friday's 1.3247 peak, setting a session high at 1.3259 as the USD eased on lower yields. RSI(14) is near 69, hot but not stretched. The Asia trendline from the 1.3220 Asian low remains intact.
Support: 1.32527, 1.32346, 1.32196
Resistance: 1.32592, 1.3280
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 1.3253 Asian high would turn the breakout into a false break back inside the Asian range
Failure to hold the 1.3235 swing low breaks the trendline and the higher-low sequence; a 50–61.8% pullback of the pre-London leg sits at 1.3247–1.3244
The 1.3280 range top is the next resistance above the session high
BoE's Breeden at 09:30 UTC and Mann at 12:50 UTC could materially shift this read
06:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher lows through Asia · RSI 61 · price 1.32482
Higher-low chain inside Asian range 1.3220–1.3253; price retesting range top.
Late Asia session, about 45 minutes before London open. GBPUSD bounced off the 05:15 UTC pullback low at 1.3235, close to the 50% retracement of the Asian rally on the asia fib, and is back pressing the 1.3253 asia high. A softer USD on easing yields is behind the Asia bid; RSI(14) is ~61 and ATR is ~4 pips, with rising support from the 1.3220 asia low still intact.
Support: 1.3240, 1.32346, 1.32196
Resistance: 1.32527, 1.3280
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3253 asia high breaks the Asian range and opens the 1.3280 range top
Failure to hold the 1.3240 swing low puts the 06:00 UTC rebound in question
A break below the 1.3235 pullback low and rising support ends the higher-low chain, exposing the 1.3220 asia low
BoE Breeden at 09:30 UTC and Mann at 12:50 UTC could shift GBP during London hours
Pullback inside the 1.3220–1.3253 Asian range, holding the 50–61.8% fib.
Asia filled the weekend gap and lifted GBPUSD from the 1.3220 asia low to the 1.3253 asia high as softer US yields weighed on the USD. Price then printed lower highs into a 1.3235 pullback low, between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the Asia rally, and is back at 1.3243 just under the 1.3248 lower high an hour before London open, with RSI(14) neutral near 48.
Support: 1.3235, 1.3220
Resistance: 1.3248, 1.3253, 1.3280
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3253 asia high breaks the lower-high sequence, with the 1.3280 range top as the next resistance
Failure to hold the 1.3235 pullback low and the Asia rally fib zone exposes the 1.3220 asia low
BoE's Breeden at 09:30 UTC during London session could break the Asian range either way
05:47 UTC
Intraday pullback after Asia rally, short-term lower highs · RSI 41 · price 1.32364
Lower high at 1.3248 under the 1.3253 asian high; 1.3240 prior low broken, price at 50% retrace.
Monday's roughly 10-pip weekend gap lower filled early in Asia, and the pair rallied from the 1.3220 asian low to the 1.3253 asian high as US yields eased. A lower high at 1.3248 followed, then a break of the 1.3240 prior low to a 1.3235 swing low. Price is pinned at the 50% retrace of the Asia move ahead of London open, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 1.32346, 1.32322, 1.32196
Resistance: 1.3240, 1.32476, 1.32527
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.3235 swing low exposes the 61.8% fib at 1.3232, then the 1.3220 asian low
Reclaiming the 1.3240 prior low and a close above the 1.3248 lower high negates the lower-highs line
Acceptance above the 1.3253 asian high would extend the third-day rally
BoE's Breeden (09:30 UTC) and Mann (12:50 UTC) could move GBP during London hours
05:31 UTC
Intraday pullback inside Asian range · RSI 32 · price 1.32365
Lower high at 1.3248, lower low under 1.3240.
Late Asia session: the soft-USD rally from the 1.3220 asian low capped at the 1.3253 asian high. A rejection at the 1.3248 lower high has pushed price through the 1.3240 broken low to the 50% fib near 1.3236, with RSI(14) near 32 ahead of London open.
Support: 1.32346, 1.32322, 1.32196
Resistance: 1.3240, 1.32476, 1.32527
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.3240 broken low neutralises the lower-low read
Failure to hold the 1.3235 session low exposes the fib 61.8 at 1.3232, then the 1.3220 asian low
Break of the descending lower-high line through 1.3253 reopens the asian high
London open and BoE's Breeden at 09:30 UTC could reshape the Asian range
05:17 UTC
Intraday pullback after Asian rally · RSI 37 · price 1.32397
Lower high under 1.3253, retesting 1.3240 swing low.
The Asian session filled the weekend gap on a softer USD as yields eased, then stalled at the 1.3253 asia high, a rejection just above Friday's 1.3250 top, and has since printed a lower high at 1.3248. Ahead of London open, price is retesting the 1.3240 swing low near the 38.2% retracement of the Asian rally. Price sits on EMA50, RSI(14) is around 37 and ATR is about 3 pips.
Support: 1.3240, 1.3230, 1.3220
Resistance: 1.3248, 1.3253
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.3240 swing low exposes the asia shelf at 1.3230 and the asia low at 1.3220
A close back above the 1.3248 lower high reopens the 1.3253 asia high
BoE's Breeden at 09:30 UTC and Mann at 12:50 UTC could shift the London-session read
Lower high under the Asian high, testing swing low at 38.2% fib.
Monday opened with a gap below the 1.3235 Friday close. Softer USD on easing yields lifted the pair from the 1.3220 Asian low through Friday's 1.3250 high to a 1.3253 Asian high, where it was rejected. Late Asia has printed a lower high at 1.3248 and is retesting the 1.3240 swing low on the 38.2% fib, with RSI(14) near 44 and ATR around 3 pips.
Support: 1.3240, 1.32354, 1.32196
Resistance: 1.32476, 1.32527
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3240 swing low confirms a lower-low and opens the 50% fib and the 1.3235 Friday close
Reclaim of the 1.3248 lower high puts the 1.3253 Asian high back in play
Loss of the 1.3220 Asian low unwinds the whole Asian rally
London open at 07:00 UTC, then BoE Breeden at 09:30 UTC and Mann at 12:50 UTC, could break the Asian range
04:47 UTC
Intraday up-leg, stalling below Asian high · RSI 54 · price 1.32454
Higher lows off 1.3220 Asian low, tight consolidation 1.3240–1.3248 under 1.3253.
Monday opened with a gap below Friday's 1.3235 close. Price filled it in early Asia and ran to a 1.3253 Asian high as softer US yields weighed on USD. The pullback held the 1.3240 swing low at the 38.2% retrace, and price is now compressing just under the Asian high into London open, with RSI(14) neutral near 54 and ATR(14) about 3 pips.
Support: 1.3240, 1.3220, 1.3206
Resistance: 1.3253, 1.3280
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3253 Asian high in London opens the 1.3280 range top
Failure to hold the 1.3240 swing low exposes the 1.3220 Asian low, then the 1.3206 Friday low
BoE's Breeden (09:30 UTC) and Mann (12:50 UTC) could shift the read on Nov hike pricing
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and US yield moves are the USD-side risk later today
04:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend from Asian low, consolidating below high · RSI 51 · price 1.32472
Higher low at 1.3240 after Asian high; late Asia, London open ahead.
Monday's small gap down from Friday's 1.32354 close filled early. GBP/USD then climbed through the Asia session on easing US yields, briefly sweeping Friday's 1.3250 high to an Asian high of 1.32527. The pullback held 1.3240, the 38.2% fib of the Asian leg, and price is grinding back toward the high into the London open with RSI(14) neutral near 51.
Support: 1.3240, 1.32354, 1.32196
Resistance: 1.32527, 1.3280
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.32527 Asian high opens the path toward the 1.3280 range top
Failure to hold 1.3240 (fib 38.2) breaks the Asian rising trendline and exposes Friday's close at 1.32354, then the 1.32196 Asian low
BoE's Breeden at 09:30 UTC during the London session could shift this read
Higher low at 1.3240 after a false break above Friday high.
The Asia session filled the weekend gap from the 1.3220 Monday low, then poked through the 1.3250 Friday high to a 1.3253 Asia high before fading. That move reads as a false break. The pullback held the 1.3240 swing low at the 38.2% fib, and price is now consolidating around 1.3246, with RSI(14) neutral near 49 and ATR about 3.6 pips against a softer USD on easing yields.
Support: 1.3240, 1.3220, 1.3206
Resistance: 1.3250, 1.3253
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.3253 Asia high clears the Friday high and negates the false-break read
A break of the 1.3240 swing low and the rising trendline exposes the 1.3220 Monday low, then the 1.3206 Friday low
The London open and BoE speakers Breeden (09:30 UTC) and Mann (12:50 UTC) could push price out of the 1.3220–1.3253 Asian range
Higher low at 1.3240 after Asia rally from 1.3220; consolidating under 1.3253.
Asia session recovered the weekend gap from the 1.3220 asian low to a 1.3253 session high on a softer USD as yields ease, briefly clearing Friday's 1.3250 high before a rejection. The pullback held the 1.3240 swing low at the 38.2% fib, a higher low on the rising line, with RSI(14) neutral near 49.
Support: 1.3240, 1.3220
Resistance: 1.3253, 1.3286
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3253 session high reopens the Friday-high break, with the 1.3286 range top next
Close below the 1.3240 swing low breaks the rising line and exposes the 1.3220 asian low
London open in ~3h and BoE's Breeden at 09:30 UTC could reset the Asian range
Higher low at 1.3240 after Asia-session rally from 1.3220.
Asia session opened with a ~10-pip weekend gap below Friday's 1.3235 close. The gap filled within three hours from the 1.3220 Asian low as a softer USD on easing US yields lifted sterling. The rising trend tagged a session high at 1.3253, just through Friday's 1.3250 top, then met rejection back to the 1.3240 swing low at the 38.2% fib; RSI(14) is neutral near 53 with price holding just above EMA20.
Support: 1.3240, 1.3220, 1.3206
Resistance: 1.3253, 1.3280
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3253 session high opens the path to the 1.3280 range top
Failure to hold the 1.3240 swing low and rising trend line puts the 1.3220 Asian low back in play, with the 1.3206 friday low below
BoE Breeden at 09:30 UTC during London hours could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Asia open; pullback from Asian high holding 38.2%.
Monday's Asia session opened with a weekend gap of about 10 pips lower to the 1.3220 asian low. The gap filled on softer US yields, and the rally poked through Friday's 1.3250 top to a 1.32527 asian high before rejection. The pullback low at 1.3240 sits on the 38.2% fib and rising support, with RSI(14) neutral near 49 and the London open about 3.5h away.
Support: 1.3240, 1.3220, 1.32056
Resistance: 1.32527, 1.3280
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3240 pullback low and rising support breaks the Asia higher-low chain, exposing the 1.3220 asian low
Acceptance above the 1.32527 asian high opens the path toward the 1.3280 range top
Loss of 1.3220 puts Friday's 1.3206 friday low back in play
BoE Breeden at 09:30 UTC and Mann at 12:50 UTC could shift the London-session read
03:17 UTC
Asia up-leg stalling below Friday high · RSI 55 · price 1.32416
False break of Friday 1.3250 high, pullback holding 38.2% of Asia leg.
Late Asia session: GBPUSD opened with a small weekend gap down, held a 1.3220 asia low and filled the gap through the 1.3235 fri close as a softer USD on easing yields lifted sterling. The leg briefly cleared Friday's 1.3250 high to a 1.3253 asia high and was rejected, and the pullback low at 1.3240 sits on the 38.2% fib. Price is just under the ema20 with RSI(14) near 55.
Support: 1.3240, 1.32355, 1.3220
Resistance: 1.32428, 1.32527
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3240 pullback low and 38.2% fib exposes the 1.3235 fri close
Reclaim of the ema20 near 1.3243, then a hold above the 1.3253 asia high, negates the false break read
Loss of the 1.3220 asia low erases the Monday leg
BoE Breeden at 09:30 UTC, about 6h out, could shift the London session read
03:02 UTC
Intraday up-leg, pulling back · RSI 51 · price 1.32416
Asia HH/HL chain from 1.3220 low, rejected just above Friday high, retracing.
Monday's Asia session opened with a ~10-pip gap below the 1.3235 fri close, filled it and pushed to a 1.3253 asian high on a softer USD as yields ease, briefly clearing Friday's 1.3250 high before a rejection. Price is now testing the 38.2% fib of the asian low-to-high leg near 1.3240, with RSI(14) neutral near 51 and price below EMA20 but above EMA50.
Support: 1.3240, 1.32354, 1.32196
Resistance: 1.32527, 1.3280
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3235 fri close exposes the 61.8% fib near 1.3232 and the 1.3220 asian low
Reclaim of the 1.3253 asian high reopens the 1.3280 range top
BoE's Breeden (09:30 UTC) and Mann (12:50 UTC) during the London session could materially shift this read
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC during NY hours. US CPI is due Wed 12:30 UTC
02:47 UTC
Asia session uptrend, pulling back from high · RSI 58 · price 1.32443
HH/HL chain from 1.3220 Asian low, first pullback off session high.
Monday's ~10-pip gap down to the 1.3220 Asian low filled early, with a softer USD lifting the pair through the 1.3238 breakout area. The Asia rally poked to a 1.3253 session high before rejection back under Friday high at 1.3250. Price is now easing to 1.3244, sitting on EMA20, with RSI(14) near 58 and ATR around 3.8 pips.
Support: 1.3238, 1.3230, 1.3220
Resistance: 1.3250, 1.32527
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3253 session high negates the rejection at Friday high
Loss of the 1.3238 breakout area brings the 50% Asia rally fib near 1.3236 and the 1.3230 higher low into play
Break below the 1.3220 Asian low unwinds the full gap-fill rally
BoE's Breeden at 09:30 UTC, during London hours, could materially shift this read
Monday's Asia session filled the weekend gap and climbed from the 1.3220 monday low to a 1.3253 asia high on a softer USD as yields ease, briefly clearing Friday's high at 1.3250. Price is now consolidating just under the friday high with RSI(14) near 66. The pullback low at 1.3246 marks only a shallow ~20% retracement of the Asia leg.
Support: 1.32461, 1.3240, 1.32196
Resistance: 1.3250, 1.32527
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3253 asia high extends the break beyond the friday high at 1.3250
Failure to hold the 1.3246 pullback low exposes the fib 38.2 retracement zone near 1.3240
A drop back through 1.3240 toward the 1.3220 monday low would undo the Asia climb
London open, then BoE's Breeden (09:30 UTC) and Mann (12:50 UTC), could reset the session range
02:17 UTC
Uptrend through Asia, momentum stalling at the highs · RSI 66 · price 1.32473
Higher lows from the 1.3220 gap low; Friday's gap filled, now consolidating just under the 1.3253 Asia high.
GBP climbed about 33 pips off Monday's 1.3220 gap low through the Asia session as the USD softened on easing US yields. The move filled Friday's gap and briefly cleared Friday's 1.3250 high to a 1.3253 Asia high before stalling. Price is consolidating just below that high and holding the 1.3246 pullback low, with RSI(14) cooling from the high 70s.
Support: 1.32461, 1.3238, 1.32196
Resistance: 1.32527, 1.3260
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 1.3253 Asia high opens the 1.3260 round number, the top of UOB's intraday band
A break of the 1.3246 pullback low shifts focus to the 1.3238 swing low, near the 38.2% of the asia rally fib
A return below the 1.3220 gap low would negate the Asia higher-low sequence
BoE's Breeden at 09:30 UTC and Mann at 12:50 UTC could reset the read into London
02:02 UTC
Uptrend through Asia, stalling at Friday high · RSI 58 · price 1.32483
Higher lows since the Monday gap; session high capped at 1.3253.
Monday's Asia session opened with a roughly 10-pip gap down to the 1.3220 asian low. The gap was absorbed, and price rallied about 33 pips to a 1.3253 session high, a marginal poke above Friday's 1.3250 high that met rejection. The move fits the softer-USD and easing-yields read. Pullbacks are holding the 1.3246 micro low, with RSI(14) cooled to 58 and ATR(14) near 4 pips.
Support: 1.3246, 1.3238, 1.3220
Resistance: 1.3253, 1.3280
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3253 session high clears Friday's 1.3250 high and puts the 1.3280 range top in view
Loss of the 1.3246 micro low shifts focus to the 1.3238 asian shelf, near the 38.2% of the asian rally fib
Break below the 1.3220 asian low erases the Asian rally and revisits the gap-down low
London open and BoE's Breeden at 09:30 UTC could materially shift this read; US CPI on Wed is the larger USD-side risk
Higher lows through Asia; breakout above Friday's high now being retested.
Monday's Asia session filled the weekend gap from the 1.3220 monday low and cleared Friday's 1.3244 prior high, printing a 1.3253 session high as the USD softened on easing US yields. Price is now retesting 1.3244, with RSI(14) cooling to about 60 and ATR near 4 pips in thin Asian trade.
Support: 1.3244, 1.3238, 1.3220
Resistance: 1.3253, 1.3280
What it said to watch
Hold of the 1.3244 prior high on M15 closes keeps the breakout intact.
M15 close back below the 1.3238 asia base, which sits at the 38.2% fib of the asia rally, would turn the move into a false break.
M15 close above the 1.3253 session high opens the path toward the 1.3280 range top.
BoE's Breeden at 09:30 UTC in the London session could shift this read.
01:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, early Asia, momentum stalling at highs · RSI 67 · price 1.32486
Higher highs and higher lows from the Sunday open low; weekend gap filled, Friday NY high broken.
Asia session reversed the weekend gap lower from the 1.3220 open low, filled Friday's 1.3235 close and broke the Friday NY prior high at 1.3244. It then set a 1.3253 session high, with RSI(14) cooling to about 67. The bid fits the digest's firm-GBP tone, but price is stalling at Friday's early high near 1.3250, with the 1.3286 range top above.
Support: 1.3244, 1.3238, 1.3220
Resistance: 1.3253, 1.3286
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.3244 prior high puts the breakout in doubt; 1.3240 is the 38.2% of the asia rally fib
Break of rising support and the 1.3238 breakout bar base ends the higher-low chain from the open low
Close above the 1.3253 session high opens the 1.3286 range top
BoE Breeden at 09:30 UTC (London morning) could materially shift this read via November hike pricing
01:17 UTC
Uptrend, RSI hot · RSI 78 · price 1.3252
Asia session HH/HL chain off the gap low, testing Friday high.
Monday opened with a roughly 10-pip gap down to the 1.3220 gap low. Demand absorbed it, and the Asia rally has stacked higher lows through the 1.3244 Fri NY high to print a 1.3253 session high just above the 1.3250 Friday high. RSI(14) near 78 is hot but in line with the trend, and ATR(14) of about 4.5 pips reflects thin Asia conditions.
Support: 1.3250, 1.3244, 1.3220
Resistance: 1.3253, 1.3286
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 1.3253 session high keeps the 1.3286 range top in view
Slipping back under the 1.3244 Fri NY high would turn the Friday high break into a false break
A break of the Asia trendline near 1.3240 ends the higher-low chain; the 38.2–50% Asia rally retracement sits at 1.3240–1.3236
London open liquidity, then BoE Breeden (09:30 UTC) and Mann (12:50 UTC), could shift GBP hike pricing and this read
Higher lows since Monday open, testing Friday high.
Monday's Asia session filled the weekend gap to Friday's close at 1.3235 and broke the Friday NY high at 1.3244. Price is now testing the Friday high at 1.3250, 30 pips off the Monday low at 1.3220, with RSI(14) near 76. Sterling is carrying Friday's resilience after the soft US Michigan print, with higher lows intact along the rising trendline.
Support: 1.3244, 1.32354, 1.32196
Resistance: 1.3250, 1.3286
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3250 Friday high opens the path toward the 1.3286 range top
Slip back below the 1.3244 Friday NY high turns the break into a false break
Break of the rising trendline and loss of 1.3235 Friday close undoes the gap fill
BoE Breeden at 09:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, Asia gap filled · RSI 70 · price 1.32476
Higher lows from open low, pressing friday high.
Monday's open gapped about 10 pips below Friday's 1.3235 close to an open low near 1.3220. Early Asia session climbed in higher lows, filled the gap, and cleared Friday's NY high at 1.3244, carrying Friday's firm-GBP tone after sterling shrugged off the US Michigan miss. Price now sits just under the friday high at 1.3250 with RSI(14) near 70 and the Asian range still developing; the asia rally fib tracks the leg up from the open low.
Support: 1.3244, 1.3238, 1.3220
Resistance: 1.3250, 1.3300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the friday high at 1.3250 extends the breakout, with the 1.3300 round number the next figure
Slip back below the ny high at 1.3244 turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the asia shelf at 1.3238 and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low chain
A move back to the open low at 1.3220 puts the gap retracement in question
BoE Breeden at 09:30 UTC and Mann at 12:50 UTC could shift November hike odds and reset the London range
00:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the weekly open, RSI warm · RSI 71 · price 1.32459
Weekend gap filled, higher lows, testing Friday high.
The Asia open gapped about 10 pips lower to the 1.3220 monday low. Price then filled the gap and broke the 1.3244 fri ny high, and is now pressing the 1.3250 friday high with RSI(14) near 71. Early-Asia flow is thin, and sterling carries Friday's firmer tone after the Michigan miss and Waller's comments.
Support: 1.3244, 1.3220, 1.3206
Resistance: 1.3250
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.3250 friday high extends the breakout; a rejection there leaves a double test of the same high.
A slip back below the 1.3244 fri ny high turns the move into a false break. The 38.2% retracement of the monday rally fib sits near 1.3237.
Losing the rally trendline and the 1.3220 monday low reopens the 1.3206 friday low.
BoE Breeden at 09:30 UTC in the London session could shift this read, given the ~83% November hike pricing.
00:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend, early Asia session · RSI 59 · price 1.32457
Weekend gap filled, higher lows from 1.3220, pressing prior high.
Asia session opened about 10 pips below Friday's close. Price held the 1.3220 gap low, filled the gap at 1.3235 and broke the 1.3244 Fri NY high on the latest rally, extending Friday's bounce off the 1.3206 low that the digest ties to Waller's comments. Price now sits just under the 1.3248 Fri Asia hi and the 1.3250 prior high, with RSI(14) near 59 and ATR around 5 pips.
Support: 1.3244, 1.3235, 1.3220
Resistance: 1.3250, 1.3248
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.3250 prior high clears the window's top; failure there leaves a rejection under Friday's highs
Slip back below the 1.3244 Fri NY high turns the breakout into a false break, with the 1.3235 gap fill next
Break of rising support from the 1.3220 gap low ends the Asia higher-low sequence
BoE Breeden (09:30 UTC) during the London session could shift GBP hike pricing and this read
Weekend gap filled; higher low above Friday's range low, price pressing Friday's NY high.
The weekend gap down to the 1.3220 gap low was filled in the early Asia session. Price is back above the 1.3235 Friday close (fri close) and both EMAs after holding the 1.3230 asia pivot, with Friday's 1.3244 NY high and the 1.3250 friday high capping above. RSI(14) is flat near 51 and ATR is about 4.6 pips in thin Asia trade, extending the steady NY leg off Friday's 1.3206 low, which also shrugged off the Michigan miss.
Support: 1.3235, 1.3230, 1.3220
Resistance: 1.3244, 1.3250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3244 ny high opens the 1.3250 friday high, the top of Friday's range
Loss of the 1.3230 asia pivot and the 1.3235 fri close puts the 1.3220 gap low back in play
A break of the higher-low trendline from the 1.3206 Friday low would undo the NY recovery leg
BoE Breeden at 09:30 UTC Monday, after London open, could shift GBP hike pricing and this read