1.3184–1.3261 range across the window; price parked at the lower half just above 1.3200.
Monday's Asia-session climb to the 1.3261 monday high was rejected ahead of the London open. The Monday slide that followed ran through London and into the first hours of NY, a Dollar-driven move as Brent pushed above $107 and DXY printed a 17-month high. Price has since flattened at 1.3205, just above the 1.3200 round number, below EMA(20) at 1.3218 and the 1.3225 weekly open, with RSI(14) near 35 and Thursday low at 1.3184 marking the window's range floor.
Support: 1.3200, 1.31842
Resistance: 1.32178, 1.32253, 1.32612
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3200 round number breaks the 13-session floor and exposes the thursday low at 1.3184
Recovery above EMA20 and the 1.3225 weekly open (38.2% of the Monday slide) would neutralise Monday's rejection
Supply capping at the 1.3261 monday high keeps the range top intact
Fed's Waller Tue 07:45 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
1.3184–1.3261 range since Thursday; Monday upside false break unwound.
Monday's London open pushed to the monday high at 1.3261, above the Thursday and Friday highs, but the move failed. Lower highs through the NY session then unwound it to the monday low at 1.3202 as oil-driven USD demand firmed ahead of Wednesday's CPI. Price is basing near 1.3207, below EMA(20), EMA(50) and the weekly open at 1.3225, with RSI(14) near 35. That leaves it in the lower half of the range that has held since Thursday's bounce off the week low at 1.3184.
Support: 1.3202, 1.3184
Resistance: 1.3225, 1.3261, 1.3272
What it said to watch
H1 close below the monday low at 1.3202 exposes the week low at 1.3184; a break there ends the range read
Reclaiming the weekly open at 1.3225 and the Monday lower-highs line returns price to mid-range
Clearance of the monday high at 1.3261 and the wed high at 1.3272 would mark a range break higher
BoE Greene (Tue 03:00 UTC) and Fed Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) could shift the read before US CPI on Wed at 12:30 UTC
Lower highs since Monday's London-open high, inside 1.3184–1.3275 range.
Cable has spent the window boxed between Thursday's 3m low at 1.3184 and the 1.3275 Wednesday open. Monday's London-open push to a 1.3261 week high briefly cleared Friday's 1.3250 top. It failed, a false break, and the pair faded through NY as oil-driven USD demand built ahead of Wednesday's CPI. Price now sits below the 1.3225 weekly open and EMA(20), testing Monday's lower-high line. The Monday low at 1.3202 is roughly the 78.6% retracement of the Thursday–Monday rally, with RSI(14) near 29 and the prior close at 1.3235 overhead.
Support: 1.32015, 1.31842
Resistance: 1.32253, 1.32354, 1.32612
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3202 monday low puts the 1.3184 3m low back in play; a break there extends the range floor lower
Recovery above the 1.3225 weekly open and EMA(20) breaks Monday's lower-high line and points back toward the 1.3235 prior close
Rally retracement beyond 78.6% would erase most of the Thursday–Monday rebound
US Sep CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
UK GDP Thu 06:00 UTC (f/c -0.1%) is the GBP-side risk to range edges
1.3184–1.3261 range; Monday lower highs pressing the lower half.
Monday's push to 1.3261 at the London open cleared Friday's 1.3250 high but did not hold. A series of lower highs through London took price back below the 1.3225 weekly open and both EMAs to a 1.3202 Monday low, retracing more than 61.8% of the Thursday–Monday rally. Oil-driven USD demand ahead of Wednesday's US CPI explains the fade, which has largely unwound Thursday's rebound from the 1.3184 three-month low on Waller's remarks. Price is flat near 1.3205 into the NY afternoon with RSI(14) around 32.
Support: 1.3202, 1.3184
Resistance: 1.3225, 1.3261
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3202 Monday low exposes the 1.3184 3m low and confirms a lower-low sequence
Recovery above the 1.3225 weekly open breaks the Monday lower-highs line and restores the mid-range read
Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) and US Sep CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read; UK GDP follows Thu 06:00 UTC
1.3184–1.3261 range since Thursday; Monday high rejected, higher-low line broken.
Cable has rotated inside a 1.3184–1.3261 range since Thursday's three-month low. Monday's London-open push through the Friday high to 1.3261 failed, and the pair faded through NY hours to the Monday low at 1.3202 as firmer oil and Middle East tension lifted the USD into Wednesday's CPI. The drop broke the higher-low line off Thursday's low and left price below EMA(20) near 1.3223 and EMA(50) near 1.3228, with RSI(14) near 33 and price between the 61.8% and 78.6% fib of the Thursday–Monday rally.
Support: 1.3202, 1.3184
Resistance: 1.3225, 1.3250, 1.3261
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the week open at 1.3225 and EMA(20) would neutralise the Monday fade
Failure to hold the Monday low at 1.3202 exposes the 3m low at 1.3184, the range floor
The Friday high at 1.3250 and Monday high at 1.3261 mark the range top; a close above 1.3261 invalidates the false break read
Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC, core f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
1.3184–1.3261 range; Monday high rejected, price back at range lows.
The London-open spike to the 1.3261 monday high was rejected, and cable bled lower through London and into NY as Middle East tension lifted oil and the USD ahead of Wednesday's CPI. Price is back below the 1.3225 weekly open and EMA(20), now pressing the 1.3202 monday low. That low sits marginally under Friday's 1.3206 trough, which breaks the higher-low line from Thursday's 1.3184 3-month low. RSI(14) has slid to the mid-30s, but the broader 1.3184–1.3261 range is still intact and price sits beyond the 61.8% retrace of the Thu–Mon swing.
Support: 1.3202, 1.3184
Resistance: 1.3225, 1.3250, 1.3261
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3202 monday low opens the 1.3184 3-month low and the range floor
Recovery above the 1.3225 weekly open and EMA(20) returns price to mid-range, with the 1.3250 friday high next
Fresh rejection at the 1.3261 monday high would keep the range top defined
Waller Tue 07:45 UTC and US Sep CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.3280, rising lows from 1.3184 holding.
Monday's London open push to the 1.3261 monday high was rejected. The NY session fade to the 1.3202 monday low followed as oil-driven USD demand built ahead of Wednesday's US CPI. That fade retraced roughly 70% of the Thu–Mon advance off the 1.3184 week low and put price back under the 1.3225 weekly open and both EMAs, with RSI(14) in the low 30s. Lower highs since the 1.3280 tue high are compressing against rising lows. The range is intact but the pair is sitting near its lower half.
Support: 1.3202, 1.3184
Resistance: 1.3225, 1.3261, 1.3280
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3202 monday low leaves the 1.3184 week low as the next reference, and breaks the rising lows line
Break of 1.3184 would mark a range break and a fresh lower low on the week
Reclaim of the 1.3225 weekly open and EMA20 would neutralise Monday's fade
Rejection again at the 1.3261 monday high keeps the lower highs sequence from the 1.3280 tue high intact
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC, with Waller Tue 07:45 UTC beforehand, could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Monday's 1.3261 high; price below weekly open and both EMAs.
Monday's push above Friday's 1.3250 high was rejected at 1.3261 into the London open. Price then faded steadily through London and NY hours as oil-linked USD demand returned on Middle East tensions. It now trades below the 1.3225 weekly open and under EMA(20) near 1.3234, with each bounce capped by the Monday lower highs line. The pullback sits between the 50% and 61.8% fib of Thursday's 1.3184–1.3261 rally, with RSI(14) in the mid-30s.
Support: 1.32136, 1.32056, 1.31842
Resistance: 1.32253, 1.3234, 1.32612
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3206 friday low breaks the higher-low sequence from Thursday and puts the 1.3184 prior wk low in view
Failure to hold the 61.8% fib at 1.3214 extends the retracement of the Thursday-Monday rally
Reclaim of the 1.3225 weekly open plus a break of the Monday lower highs line returns focus to ema20 and the 1.3261 monday high
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC today, then US Sept CPI Wed 12:30 UTC and UK GDP Thu 06:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
15:01 UTC
Range, pullback deepening off Monday high · RSI 36 · price 1.32184
1.3184–1.3280 range; higher-lows line from Thursday's low now broken.
GBPUSD has held a 1.3184–1.3280 range since Wednesday's London-session selloff. Thursday's NY rally off the 1.3184 week low built a higher-lows line into Monday. A London-open push to the 1.3261 Monday high, above Friday's peak, failed as USD recovered on Middle East headlines ahead of Wednesday's CPI. Price has since slipped below the weekly open, both EMAs and the higher-lows line, and now sits between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the Thursday–Monday rally, with RSI(14) in the mid-30s.
Support: 1.3214, 1.32056, 1.31842
Resistance: 1.32253, 1.32612, 1.32802
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 1.3206 friday low leaves the 1.3184 week low as the next range-floor test
Recovery above the 1.3225 weekly open would put the failed break back into a range-middle read
Supply at the 1.3261 monday high and 1.3280 tuesday high caps the range top
Fed's Hammack today 16:50 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
UK GDP Thu 06:00 UTC (f/c -0.1%) is the GBP-side range-break risk
Higher low at 1.3206 holds; Monday high rejected, price mid-range.
Wednesday's London session drove the slide from 1.3250 to a 3-month low at 1.3184 on Thursday, before a NY-session reversal and a Friday higher low at the 1.3206 friday low. Monday's early-London push to the 1.3261 monday high was rejected as the USD recovered on pre-CPI caution, and price has faded back below EMA(20) at 1.3238. Price now sits at the 50% fib of the 1.3184–1.3261 rebound, which coincides with the rising trendline off this week's higher lows, with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 1.3223, 1.3206, 1.3184
Resistance: 1.3238, 1.3261, 1.3285
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 50% fib and rising trendline near 1.3223 exposes the friday low at 1.3206
Failure to hold 1.3206 breaks the higher-low sequence and puts the 3-month low at 1.3184 back in focus
Recovery above ema20 at 1.3238 and a close above the monday high at 1.3261 opens the tuesday high near 1.3285
Fed Hammack (16:50 UTC today) and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
UK GDP Thu 06:00 UTC (f/c -0.1%) is the GBP-side risk to the range
Higher lows since Thursday; Monday push rejected at week high.
GBP/USD has printed higher lows since Thursday's London-session low at the 1.3184 three-month low. Monday's London-open push through Friday's 1.3250 high to a 1.3261 week high failed, and price has bled back below EMA(20) near 1.3238 to the 38.2% retracement of the 1.3184-1.3261 rise around 1.3232. RSI(14) has eased to 45 from the low 60s as the USD firmed on haven demand ahead of Wednesday's US CPI, leaving the weekly open at 1.3225 and the rising-lows line as nearest support, with the Friday low at 1.3206 below.
Support: 1.3225, 1.3206, 1.3184
Resistance: 1.3238, 1.3261, 1.3285
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3225 weekly open breaks the rising-lows line and exposes the 1.3206 friday low (50-61.8% retracement zone)
A move back above the 1.3261 week high negates the London-open false break and brings the Tuesday high at 1.3285 into view
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC and UK GDP Thu 06:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC today, with thin holiday liquidity, could extend the NY-session range
Loss of the 1.3184 three-month low would end the higher-low sequence
Higher lows since Thursday, capped by a lower-highs line from Tuesday's high.
GBPUSD has printed higher lows since Thursday's 1.3184 week low. Thursday's NY-session rally and the dip to the Friday low at 1.3206 were both absorbed, helped by softer US yields after Waller's remarks. Today's London open push to the 1.3261 Monday high was rejected at the lower-highs line. Price has since slid back below the EMA20 toward the weekly open at 1.3225 as the USD recovered on haven demand and caution ahead of US CPI. RSI(14) at 43, with price just under EMA(50), shows the recovery stalling near the 38.2% retracement of the Thursday–Monday leg.
Support: 1.3225, 1.3206, 1.3184
Resistance: 1.3237, 1.3261, 1.3285
What it said to watch
H1 close below the weekly open at 1.3225 and the higher-lows line would put the Friday low at 1.3206 back in focus
Failure to hold the 1.3206 Friday low would undo the recovery structure and re-expose the 1.3184 week low
Reclaim of the EMA20 and a close above the 1.3261 Monday high would break the lower-highs line and open the path to the 1.3285 Tuesday high
BoE Mann at 12:50 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC, with thin US-holiday liquidity in NY hours
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC and UK GDP Thu 06:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows inside the 1.3184–1.3285 range; pullback from the Monday high.
Thursday's London-session 3-month low at 1.3184 was followed by a higher low at 1.3206 on Friday. The Thu-Mon rally then reached 1.3261 in late Asia today as softer US yields kept the dollar on the back foot. London rejected the Monday high and pulled price back below EMA(20) near 1.3238 to the weekly open at 1.3225, which sits close to the 38.2% retracement of the Thu-Mon rally. RSI(14) has eased to around 45, and hourly ranges stay compressed in thin US-holiday trade.
Support: 1.3225, 1.3206, 1.3184
Resistance: 1.3238, 1.3261, 1.3285
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the weekly open at 1.3225 and the 50% retracement exposes the higher low at 1.3206 and the higher-lows trendline
Failure to hold 1.3206 breaks the higher-lows sequence and reopens the 3-month low at 1.3184
Recovery above EMA(20) and the Monday high at 1.3261 brings the 1.3285 range top back into play
BoE Mann today 12:50 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 1.3184 inside a 1.3184–1.3285 range, Monday high rejected.
GBPUSD has climbed from Thursday's London-session 3m low at 1.3184. The NY rally that day, as Waller's comments softened the USD, began a higher-low line through the 1.3206 friday low and into Monday's Asia push to the 1.3261 monday high. That high was rejected into London open, and price has slipped back below EMA(20) at 1.3239 to sit on EMA(50) and the 38.2% recovery fib near 1.3232, with RSI(14) easing to ~47 and the 1.3285 range top untested since Tuesday.
Support: 1.3225, 1.3206, 1.3184
Resistance: 1.3239, 1.3261, 1.3285
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3225 weekly open and the higher-low line breaks the recovery sequence, exposing the 1.3206 friday low and then the 1.3184 3m low
Reclaim of the ema20 at 1.3239 and a close above the 1.3261 monday high would put the 1.3285 range top back in play
BoE Mann at 12:50 UTC and Fed Hammack at 16:50 UTC land in thin US/Japan holiday liquidity
US CPI on Wed at 12:30 UTC and UK GDP on Thu at 06:00 UTC are the larger risks to the range read
09:03 UTC
Recovery from three-month low, stalling at the highs · RSI 50 · price 1.32375
Higher lows since Thursday's low; failed push above 1.3250.
The recovery from Thursday's 1.3184 3-month low began in the NY session on dovish comments from the Fed's Waller. It has since printed higher lows at the 1.3206 Friday low and near Monday's 1.3225 weekly open. Monday's pre-London push through the 1.3250 prior high to the 1.3261 Monday high was faded through the London open, returning price to EMA(20) near 1.3239, with RSI(14) back at ~50 and price still holding above EMA(50). The rebound has now retraced roughly three-quarters of the Tuesday–Thursday decline from the 1.3286 Tuesday high.
Support: 1.32253, 1.32056, 1.31842
Resistance: 1.3250, 1.32612
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 1.3250 prior high and the 1.3261 Monday high would negate the false break and expose the 1.3286 Tuesday high
A break of the 1.3232 38.2% recovery fib, then the 1.3225 weekly open and the higher-low trendline, would end the higher-low sequence and put the 1.3206 Friday low in focus
Failure to hold 1.3206 brings the 1.3184 3-month low back into view
BoE Breeden (09:30 UTC) and Mann (12:50 UTC) today, and Wednesday's US CPI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.6% m/m), could materially shift this read
Higher lows since 1.3184 inside the 1.3184–1.3285 range.
Higher lows have formed since Thursday's London-session three-month low at 1.3184. Thursday's NY-session recovery and Monday's Asia climb from the 1.3225 weekly open have taken price back to the 61.8% retracement of the Tue–Thu decline near 1.3247, with softer US yields and holiday-thin trade carrying the move. The early-London push above Friday's 1.3250 prior high to 1.3261 reversed within the hour, leaving price just above EMA(20) at 1.3240 with RSI(14) near 55, mid-range.
Support: 1.3240, 1.3225, 1.3206
Resistance: 1.3250, 1.3261, 1.3285
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3261 monday high reopens the 1.3285 week high at the range top
Loss of the 1.3225 weekly open, then the 1.3206 swing low, breaks the higher-low sequence
BoE Breeden 09:30 UTC and Mann 12:50 UTC could shift November hike pricing during London and NY hours
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC and UK GDP Thu 06:00 UTC are the week's main risks to the range read
Higher lows from 1.3184 range low; capped below 1.3286 week high.
GBP/USD has built higher lows since Thursday's London-session low at the 1.3184 range low. Friday's NY dip held the 1.3206 swing low, and Monday's Asia session lifted price off the 1.3225 weekly open. The digest attributes the move to softer USD as US yields eased rather than GBP news. Price holds above EMA(20) after a push to the 1.3261 monday high into London open, with RSI(14) near 58 and the Thursday–Monday leg still well short of Tuesday's 1.3286 week high at the range top.
Support: 1.3225, 1.3206, 1.3184
Resistance: 1.3261, 1.3286
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.3286 week high breaks the three-week range top
Loss of the 1.3206 swing low ends the higher lows sequence
Return below the 1.3225 weekly open would erase Monday's gains
BoE's Breeden at 09:30 UTC today could shift November hike pricing
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main event risk for the range
Higher lows since Thursday under a flat range cap.
The Tuesday-to-Thursday decline from the 1.3286 week high bottomed at 1.3184 (week low) during Thursday's London session. Since then, higher lows at 1.3206 and Monday's Asia dip have built a rising trendline near 1.3220, with price holding above EMA(20) at 1.3238. Monday's Asia lift came on a softer USD as US yields eased, but supply has capped every push at the 1.3248–1.3253 range cap, which sits on the 61.8% retracement of the Tue-Thu decline, and RSI(14) is near 58, short of overbought.
Support: 1.3238, 1.3220, 1.3184
Resistance: 1.3253, 1.3286
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3253 range cap opens the path toward the 1.3280–1.3286 week high and three-week range top
Break of the 1.3220 trendline and EMA(20) loss would put the 1.3184 week low back in play
BoE's Breeden at 09:30 UTC and Mann at 12:50 UTC could shift November hike pricing, with direct impact on the 1.3253 cap
US CPI on Wednesday at 12:30 UTC is the main USD driver this week and could materially shift this read
05:02 UTC
Recovery inside range, stalling at the 61.8% retracement · RSI 57 · price 1.32422
Higher lows from Thursday's low, capped at 1.3250.
Tuesday's London rally set the week high at 1.3286, then London-led selling on Wednesday and Thursday took the pair to the 1.3184 week low before NY hours on Thursday turned it higher as US yields eased and the USD softened. Higher lows since then, through Friday's NY dip to 1.3206 and Monday's Asia open near the weekly open at 1.3225, keep price above EMA(20). The Asia push stalled at the 1.3253 Monday high, close to the 61.8% retracement of the Tue-Thu decline, and the 1.3250 area has now rejected three attempts since Thursday.
Support: 1.3225, 1.3206, 1.3184
Resistance: 1.3253, 1.3286
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3253 Monday high clears the 61.8% retracement and opens the 1.3286 week high and range top
Failure to hold the weekly open at 1.3225 and the higher-lows trendline exposes the 1.3206 Friday low, then the 1.3184 week low
BoE's Breeden (09:30 UTC) and Mann (12:50 UTC) today; a centrist tone with ~83% of a November hike priced could cap the recovery
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main event risk for the range edges
Higher lows from 1.3184 compressing under a flat cap.
GBPUSD has climbed off Thursday's London-session week low at 1.3184, printing higher lows at Friday's 1.3206 and Monday's 1.3220 dip near the weekly open. The latest leg came in Monday's Asia session as easing US yields softened the USD. Price holds above EMA(20) near 1.3237, but the 1.3248–1.3253 range cap has now stalled four pushes since Thursday's NY open spike, and it sits on the 61.8% fib retracement of the Tuesday–Thursday drop from the 1.3286 week high.
Support: 1.3237, 1.3225, 1.3184
Resistance: 1.3253, 1.3286
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3253 range cap and 61.8% fib opens the path toward the 1.3286 week high
Break below the 1.3225 weekly open and the higher-lows trendline would put the 1.3184 week low back in focus
BoE Breeden (09:30 UTC) and Mann (12:50 UTC) today could shift November hike pricing and the range read
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main risk to the yield-led USD dip behind this recovery
03:02 UTC
Recovering within range, capped at 1.3250 · RSI 56 · price 1.32421
Higher lows since Thursday's 1.3184 low beneath a flat 1.3250 cap.
Tuesday's London-driven rally topped at the 1.3286 week high. A two-day slide followed, bottoming at 1.3184 in Thursday's London session, before NY hours turned the pair. Since then the pair has printed higher lows at the 1.3206 higher low and the weekly open at 1.3225. The 1.3250 cap, aligned with the 61.8% fib of the Tue-Thu drop, has rejected Thursday, Friday and Monday's Asia session. Price holds above EMA(20) near 1.3236 with RSI(14) around 56, consistent with a softer USD as US yields ease, though the 1.3250 cap remains intact.
Support: 1.3236, 1.3225, 1.3206
Resistance: 1.3250, 1.3286
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3250 cap opens the path to the 1.3286 week high
Loss of the weekly open at 1.3225 and the 1.3206 higher low would break the rising-lows trendline and reopen 1.3184
Repeated H1 closes back below the ema20 at 1.3236 would signal the recovery stalling under the 61.8% fib
BoE's Breeden (09:30 UTC) and Mann (12:50 UTC) today, then US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Higher lows from 1.3184 pressing a flat 1.3250 cap.
GBPUSD has rebuilt from Thursday's London-session low at 1.3184, the range floor, which formed a double bottom with Wednesday's 1.3193. Rising lows since then have lifted price back above EMA(20) near 1.3236 and the weekly open at 1.3225, helped by a softer USD as yields ease. Monday's Asia push has stalled at the 1.3250 cap for a third time, which lines up with the 61.8% retrace of the Tuesday–Thursday drop. RSI(14) near 62 is firm but not stretched.
Support: 1.3225, 1.3206, 1.3184
Resistance: 1.3253, 1.3286
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3250 cap opens the path to last week's high at 1.3286, the range top
Loss of the weekly open at 1.3225 and the rising-lows line puts Friday's low at 1.3206 back in focus
A break below the 1.3184 range floor invalidates the double bottom read
BoE's Breeden (09:30 UTC) and Mann (12:50 UTC) speak today; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC and UK GDP Thu 06:00 UTC are the larger range-break risks
01:01 UTC
Recovering from 3m low, higher low in place · RSI 62 · price 1.3249
Higher low at 1.3206, pressing range top 1.3250.
After fading from the 1.3286 week high, the pair printed a 3m low at 1.3184 during Thursday's London session, then recovered in NY as USD paused on Waller's comments and a pullback in US yields. Friday's dip held a higher low at 1.3206. Monday's small gap below the 1.3225 weekly open filled during the Asia session, and price is back at the 1.3250 range top, which capped Thursday and Friday, sitting just above the 61.8% retracement of the slide. Price is above EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 62 and not yet stretched.
Support: 1.3225, 1.3206, 1.3184
Resistance: 1.3250, 1.3286
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3250 range top opens the path toward the 1.3286 week high
Failure to hold the 1.3225 weekly open puts the 1.3206 higher low and the rising trendline back in play
A break below the 1.3184 3m low resumes the lower-low sequence
BoE Breeden (09:30 UTC) and Mann (12:50 UTC) today could shift November hike pricing
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main USD risk for the week
Higher lows since Thursday inside the 1.3184–1.3286 week range.
Tuesday's London-led spike to the 1.3286 week high fully unwound through Wednesday and Thursday's London sessions, to a 1.3184 week low. Since then the pair has printed higher lows: Thursday's NY rebound, then Friday's NY dip that held 1.3206 after the Michigan sentiment miss. Price has also stalled twice at the 1.3248–1.3250 Thursday/Friday highs, which line up with the 61.8% retracement of the drop. The Asia-session weekend gap from Friday's 1.3235 close down to the 1.3225 weekly open has already been filled, and price sits back above EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 57.
Support: 1.32253, 1.32056, 1.31842
Resistance: 1.3250
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3250 fri high and 61.8% retracement opens the path back to the 1.3286 week high
Failure to hold the weekly open near 1.3225 puts the higher lows trendline and the 1.3206 fri low in focus
A break below the 1.3206 fri low ends the higher-lows sequence and re-exposes the 1.3184 week low
BoE Breeden (Mon 09:30 UTC) and Mann (12:50 UTC) on November hike odds could shift this read during London hours
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main event risk for the 1.3184–1.3286 range