GBP/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Friday, 16 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the GBP/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
20:46 UTC
Rally stalled, recovering off the NY low · RSI 56 · price 1.33282
Day high rejected at 1.3371; higher lows off 1.3310 into late NY.
Cable broke above the 1.3300 round number in Asia and pushed to a London high at 1.3349 on soft-USD and BoE-hike flows. The NY-open spike to the 1.3371 day high was fully rejected down to the 1.3310 NY low. The late-NY rebound has stalled at the 1.3331 late NY high, just under the 38.2% fib of the drop, with ranges compressing into the Friday close.
Support: 1.33242, 1.33098, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.33314, 1.33492, 1.33714
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.3331 late NY high clears the 38.2% fib and reopens the 1.3349 London high
Failure to hold the 1.3324 swing low exposes the 1.3310 NY low, then the 1.3300 round number
A move back through the 1.3371 day high would void the rejection read
Weekly close in about 90 minutes; thin liquidity and IMF weekend headlines carry gap risk
NY reversal from 1.3371 high, double bottom at 1.3310 lifting price.
Asia and London broke higher on the soft-USD backdrop, and NY extended to a 1.3371 ny high before a 61-pip rejection into a 1.3310 swing low that held just under the Asian range top. A double bottom there carried price back above the 1.3323 neckline, and late NY is now pressing the fib 38.2 at 1.3333 into the Friday close, with RSI near 55 and EMA50 just overhead.
Support: 1.3323, 1.3310, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.3333, 1.3349, 1.3371
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.3323 neckline negates the double bottom
Rejection at the fib 38.2 (1.3333) or the london high (1.3349) keeps the NY reversal structure intact
Break of the 1.3310 swing low exposes the 1.3300 psych level
Weekend gap risk from IMF headlines; UK jobs Tue 06:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 1.3310 NY low, capped below 38.2% fib.
London extended the Asian breakout to the 1.3350 london high. NY broke above it to the 1.3371 day high, then rejected and unwound the move to the 1.3310 ny low, a false break. Late NY has built a higher low chain back to 1.3329, just under the 38.2% fib of the drop at 1.3333, with soft USD and BoE hike pricing behind the earlier rally.
Support: 1.33252, 1.33098
Resistance: 1.33333, 1.33499, 1.33714
What it said to watch
Close above the 38.2% fib at 1.3333 extends the recovery toward the 1.3350 london high
Loss of the 1.3325 higher low breaks the late-NY chain and exposes the 1.3310 ny low
Thin weekly-close liquidity; Sunday open gap risk ahead of Tue UK jobs data
Day high at 1.3371 caps the session after the NY rejection
19:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, recovering after NY reversal · RSI 51 · price 1.33284
Higher lows off 1.3310 NY low after 61-pip fade from session high.
London extended the Asian-range breakout, and NY spiked through the 1.3350 round number to a 1.3371 session high on soft USD after Warsh's no-guidance remarks. Rejection there drove a 61-pip slide to a 1.3310 NY low that retested the London breakout zone. Late-NY bars are printing higher lows, the latest at 1.3317, and have reclaimed the ema cluster near 1.3324, with price pressing the 38.2% fib at 1.3333 and RSI(14) neutral at 51.
Support: 1.3324, 1.3317, 1.3310
Resistance: 1.3333, 1.3350, 1.3371
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 38.2% fib at 1.3333 reopens the 1.3350 round number and the 1.3371 session high
Loss of the ema cluster and a break of the 1.3317 higher low puts the 1.3310 NY low back in play
Thin late-Friday NY trade into the weekly close; weekend IMF meetings carry headline and gap risk for the open
19:31 UTC
NY reversal off session high, stabilising late · RSI 48 · price 1.33245
False break above London high, higher low after NY selloff.
London cleared the Asian high and ran to 1.3350. NY then made a false break to a 1.3371 session high and unwound it to the 1.3310 NY low, a 78.6% fib retrace near the Asian high, as USD steadied on industrial-production and import-price beats. Late NY has printed a higher low at 1.3311 and is pressing the fib 61.8 at 1.3322 and EMA20, with the London pullback low at 1.3328 just overhead.
Support: 1.3322, 1.3310, 1.3306
Resistance: 1.3328, 1.3350, 1.3371
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3328 pullback low reopens the London high at 1.3350
Loss of the 1.3310 NY low exposes the Asian high at 1.3306 and a full retrace of the London rally
Friday close is under 2h away; IMF meetings Oct 17–18 carry weekend gap risk
Lower highs off 1.3371 NY high; tight base 1.3310–1.3323.
Soft-USD flows after Warsh's no-guidance remarks lifted GBP about 107 pips from the 1.3264 Asian low to a 1.3371 ny high early in NY. The rally then hit rejection and retraced 57% to a 1.3310 ny low, just above the fib 61.8 at 1.3305. Late NY is basing beneath a 1.3323 lower high, with price below EMA20/EMA50 and RSI(14) neutral at 46.
Support: 1.3310, 1.3305
Resistance: 1.3323, 1.3328, 1.3371
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.3323 lower high, then the 1.3328 london base, would break the lower-high sequence from the ny high
Failure to hold the 1.3310 ny low and the 1.3305 fib 61.8 opens a deeper retrace of the day's rally
Thin Friday close: weekend IMF meetings and Fed headlines can gap the open
London-NY high at 1.3371 rejected; lower highs since, basing 1.3310–1.3323 late NY.
London broke above the Asian range, and NY spiked to a 1.3371 day high on the Warsh-driven USD slide before a 60-pip reversal into the 1.3310 NY low. After London close, price is basing between that NY low and the 1.3323 bounce high, sitting on the 50% fib of the day's advance and below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 1.3310, 1.3305, 1.3292
Resistance: 1.3323, 1.3350, 1.3371
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3323 bounce high and the sell-off line would put the 1.3350 breakout pt back in play, with the 1.3371 day high above
Failure to hold the 1.3310 NY low exposes the fib 61.8 at 1.3305 and the 1.3292 pre-ldn low
Pending US Budget Statement and IMF weekend meetings could shift the read at the Friday close or the Sunday open
18:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend after failed NY spike · RSI 35 · price 1.33152
Lower highs from 1.3371, compressing 1.3310–1.3323.
The NY session pushed through the 1.3349 london high to 1.3371 on the soft-USD drift, then the break failed and price unwound the whole London-NY leg to a 1.3310 ny low. Late NY is compressing between 1.3310 and the 1.3323 lower high, just above the 1.3307 asian high. RSI(14) is near 35 and price is below both EMAs.
Support: 1.33098, 1.33065, 1.32676
Resistance: 1.33231, 1.33333, 1.33492
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3323 lower high, then the 1.3333 38.2 fib, would ease the descending highs read
Failure to hold the 1.3310 ny low puts the 1.3307 asian high back inside the Asian range, with the 1.3268 asian low below
Reclaiming the 1.3349 london high would neutralise the false break
Weekend IMF meetings and Fed-speak could reshape the Monday open; UK labour data Tue 06:00 UTC is the next scheduled risk
18:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend after NY reversal · RSI 37 · price 1.33152
Lower highs from 1.3371, basing above session low.
NY session spiked to a 1.3371 day high, then a full NY sell-off erased the London gains and broke the 1.3328 London low as USD steadied on the industrial production and import-price beats. Late NY is basing between the 1.3310 session low, just above the Asian range high, and the 1.3323 bounce high, with RSI(14) near 37 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 1.3310, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.3323, 1.3328, 1.3371
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3310 session low and the 1.3300 round number extends the lower-low sequence back into the Asian range
Recovery above the 1.3323 bounce high and 1.3328 London low, clearing the descending line, opens a retracement toward the 1.3341 NY sell-off fib 50%
Weekend IMF meetings and Fed-speak could gap the Monday open; late-Friday liquidity is thin
18:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend off NY high, momentum fading · RSI 35 · price 1.33139
Lower highs from 1.3371; holding the 1.3310 session low at the Asian range top.
The early-NY spike to 1.3371 was fully unwound into late NY hours. Price fell back to the 1.3310 session low, which sits on the Asian range top, with RSI(14) near 35. The 1.3323 bounce printed a lower high under the descending trendline as USD steadied after today's Import Price and Industrial Production beats.
Support: 1.3310, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.3323, 1.3333, 1.3350
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.3310 session low exposes the 1.3300 round number and reopens the Asian range
A recovery through the 1.3323 lower high and the 38.2% fib of the NY selloff fib at 1.3333 would ease the downtrend read; the London high at 1.3350 sits above
Thin post-NY liquidity into the weekend means pending US Budget Statement or IMF meeting headlines (Oct 17–18) could shift this read
Lower highs since the 1.3371 NY session high, holding the 1.3310 NY low.
NY extended the USD-driven rally through the London high to a 1.3371 session high, then reversed about 60 pips after London close. Price is back at the 1.3310 NY low, the old Asian range top. The bounce stalled at the 1.3323 bounce high under the descending NY line, and RSI(14) at 36 is off its lows.
Support: 1.3310, 1.3292
Resistance: 1.3323, 1.3333, 1.3371
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3323 bounce high and the descending NY line opens the fib 38.2 at 1.3333
Failure to hold the 1.3310 NY low puts the 1.3292 swing low back in play
Reclaim of the 1.3371 session high negates the rejection and false break read
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC and thinning Friday-close liquidity could exaggerate moves around 1.3310
The NY open pushed through the 1.3349 london high to a 1.3371 ny high, then reversed roughly 60 pips in a steady lower-high sequence back to the 1.3309 london low. That low also sits on the 61.8% retracement of the day's rally from 1.3276. The broad soft-USD backdrop drove the Asia-London advance but did not hold the NY breakout. RSI(14) is near 31 and price is below both EMAs.
Support: 1.3309, 1.33047, 1.32921
Resistance: 1.33276, 1.33492, 1.33714
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.3309 london low exposes the 1.3305 asia high, then the 1.3292 pullback low
Reclaiming the 1.3328 prior low would ease the lower-high sequence; the 1.3349 london high is the next cap
A move back above the 1.3371 ny high would negate the false-break read
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC and thin pre-weekend liquidity could exaggerate the next swing
False break above London high, lower highs since 1.3371.
NY pushed through the 1.3349 London high to a 1.3371 session high, then reversed about 60 pips after London close. Price has now given back all of London's gains and sits on the london low and Asian range top near 1.3309–1.3313, close to the 61.8% fib of the Asia-to-NY rally, with RSI(14) near 31. The fade runs against the soft-USD backdrop in the digest, so the push above 1.3350 reads as a false break for now.
Support: 1.33086, 1.33073, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.33205, 1.33276, 1.33492
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3309 london low and 61.8% fib exposes the 1.3300 round number
Recovery above the 1.3321 breakdown pt and the selloff line would ease the reversal read; 1.3328 pullback low sits above
Reclaim of the 1.3349 london high would revive the breakout structure
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC and Friday's thin late-NY liquidity could exaggerate moves
Lower highs and lower lows since the 14:30 UTC session high.
Asia and London built a higher-high chain from 1.3268 to the 1.3349 London high. The NY-open push to a 1.3371 session high on soft-USD flows failed, and price has unwound about 56 pips back below the 1.3328 London low. Price is now testing the 08:00 UTC swing low near 1.3309, where the 61.8% fib of the day's rally and the rising trendline converge; RSI(14) is near 31.
Support: 1.33086, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.33276, 1.33492, 1.33714
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3309 swing low and the rising trendline exposes the 1.3300 round number and the Asian consolidation at 1.3292–1.3303
Recovery back above the 1.3328 london low would stall the lower-high sequence
Reclaim of the 1.3349 london high negates the false-break read, with the 1.3371 session high above
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC and thin late-Friday liquidity could distort the late-session read
NY false break above London high, sold back through London range.
USD-driven London rally cleared the Asian high at 1.3307. The early NY push through the London high at 1.3349 to a 1.3371 day high was rejected. Price gave back about 56 pips after London close, through the 1.3328 broken low, and now sits just above the 1.3313 session low, between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the Asia-NY rally.
Support: 1.3313, 1.3307, 1.3268
Resistance: 1.3328, 1.3349, 1.3371
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3313 session low puts the asian high and fib 61.8% confluence at 1.3307 in play; failure there exposes the asian low at 1.3268
Recovery above the 1.3328 broken low and the NY downtrend line would neutralise the reversal; london high 1.3349 is the next cap
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC and Friday-close/weekend IMF headlines could shift this read
False break above London high, reversal into the London range low.
NY session pushed through the 1.3349 London high to a 1.3371 NY high on the soft-USD theme, then failed and shed ~50 pips into the London close, cutting through the 1.3328 London low. Price now sits on the 61.8% retracement of the 1.3292–1.3371 leg, near the 1.3320 NY low and still above the 1.3313 Asian high. RSI(14) is around 39 and price is below both EMAs.
Support: 1.3320, 1.3313, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.3328, 1.3349, 1.3371
What it said to watch
Holding the 1.3320 NY low and the 61.8% keeps this a retracement of the day's leg. Losing the 1.3313 Asian high brings the 1.3300 round number into play.
A reclaim of the 1.3328 London low back into the London range would undercut the reversal read, with the 1.3349 London high above.
The US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC and thin Friday late-NY liquidity could distort price around these levels.
Lower highs from 1.3371 session high, below London low.
The NY open extended the soft-USD rally to a 1.3371 session high, but the move failed and unwound about 50 pips, back below 1.3350 and the 1.3328 london low. Selling stalled at the 50% fib of the Asia-to-NY rally near 1.3320 after London close. RSI(14) is near 41, and the Asian high at 1.3313 sits just below.
Support: 1.3320, 1.3313
Resistance: 1.3328, 1.3340, 1.3371
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.3320 50% fib exposes the 1.3313 asian high and the 61.8% retracement near 1.3307
An M15 close back above the 1.3328 london low and the descending trendline would weaken the reversal read; 1.3340 prior shelf is next
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC and weekend IMF headlines could shift this read into Tuesday's UK jobs data
Lower highs since 1.3371 NY high, testing swing low.
The soft-USD rally broke above the 1.3349 london high to 1.3371 early in the NY session. That move then fully reversed in a run of lower highs, slipping below the london trendline and the 1.3339 breakdown level. Price now sits on the 1.3328 swing low, near the 38.2% of the day rally fib, with EMA50 directly underneath.
Support: 1.3328, 1.3320, 1.3309
Resistance: 1.3339, 1.3349, 1.3371
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3328 swing low confirms a lower low and exposes the 50% fib at 1.3320, then the london low at 1.3309
Reclaim of the 1.3339 breakdown level would neutralise the reversal read; the 1.3371 ny high caps above
Late NY into the Friday close with thin liquidity; US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC is low impact
15:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, sharp pullback from NY high · RSI 47 · price 1.3339
HH/HL chain since Asia; pullback testing rising trendline.
The soft-USD tone carried the first hour of NY above the 1.3349 London high to a 1.3371 NY high. A sharp rejection followed: four straight lower closes have taken price back to 1.3339, onto the rising trendline and the 50% fib of the London rally, with RSI(14) cooled to ~47. The 1.3328 pullback low is the nearest higher-low pivot, and the 1.3309 London low and 1.3306 Asian high mark the London-session base below it.
Support: 1.3328, 1.3309, 1.3306
Resistance: 1.3349, 1.3371
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3328 pullback low breaks the rising trendline and the intraday HH/HL chain
Failure to hold the 1.3309 London low / 1.3306 Asian high zone would erase the London-session gains
Reclaim of the 1.3349 London high would turn the NY high move into a retest rather than a false break, with 1.3371 back in view
Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC and Friday's thinning liquidity after London close can extend the move; weekend IMF Fed commentary is a gap risk
15:31 UTC
Uptrend, NY pullback in progress · RSI 53 · price 1.33468
HH/HL chain from Asia; retesting London high after session-high rejection.
London broke the Asian range high at 1.3310. The first hour of NY extended the move to a session high at 1.3371 on the soft-dollar backdrop, then rejected and gave back ~25 pips. Price now sits just under the 1.3349 London high, between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of the NY leg, with the rising trendline from the Asian lows near 1.3340.
Support: 1.3340, 1.3328, 1.3310
Resistance: 1.3349, 1.3371
What it said to watch
M15 close below the trendline near 1.3340 and the 1.3328 swing low breaks the intraday HL chain
Reclaim of the 1.3349 London high puts the 1.3371 session high back in play
Loss of 1.3328 exposes the 1.3310 Asian high as the breakout retest
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC and the weekly USD close could shift this read
15:16 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 58 · price 1.33517
HH/HL chain intact; NY breakout leg rejected at 1.3371.
Sterling extended to three-week highs on a soft USD. The NY-open leg broke the 1.3349 london high and printed a 1.3371 session high, then gave back about 19 pips in two bars. Price is now retesting the london high near the 50% of the NY leg, with RSI(14) cooling to 58 and rising support from the London-session lows still below.
Support: 1.3349, 1.3337, 1.3328
Resistance: 1.3371, 1.3400
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3349 london high puts price back inside the London range, with the 1.3328 swing low next
A break of rising support near 1.3337 would end the intraday HL chain
Reclaiming the 1.3371 session high reopens the 1.3400 round number
London close and the US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC could thin liquidity and shift this read
14:46 UTC
Uptrend, extended into NY · RSI 77 · price 1.33695
Higher highs and higher lows; London high cleared in NY.
Cable broke out of the Asian range high near 1.3313 at London open, then extended through the London high at 1.3349 during the first hour of NY. The move tagged a session high at 1.3370 as the USD extended its slide on lower yields. The latest higher low sits at the 1.3328 NY swing low, and RSI(14) near 77 is hot after four straight up bars.
Support: 1.3349, 1.33276, 1.3313
Resistance: 1.33703, 1.3400
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the London high at 1.3349 on an M15 close would leave the NY breakout as a false break
An M15 close below the 1.3328 NY swing low breaks the higher-low chain and trendline support
Acceptance above the 1.3370 session high puts the 1.3400 round number in view
Bailey speech today and US Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC; thin Friday-close liquidity can exaggerate moves
14:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, accelerating in NY · RSI 73 · price 1.3363
Higher highs and higher lows; London high broken at NY open.
NY open broke the London high at 1.3349 and ran to a fresh session high near 1.3364, the third leg up from the 1.3268 Asian low as broad USD weakness and falling yields persist. RSI(14) near 73 is hot but not extreme, and the higher-low line through the 1.3309 London low and 1.3328 swing low is intact.
Support: 1.3349, 1.3328, 1.3309
Resistance: 1.3364, 1.3400
What it said to watch
Pullback into the 1.3349 London high, which aligns with the 38.2% retrace of the NY leg, tests whether the breakout holds as a retest
An M15 close below the 1.3328 swing low and the higher-low line breaks the intraday HH/HL chain
Acceptance above the 1.3364 session high leaves the 1.3400 round number as the next reference
A break below the 1.3309 London low unwinds the day's London and NY gains
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC and the weekend IMF headlines could shift the USD read into the close
14:16 UTC
Uptrend, NY extension at session high · RSI 68 · price 1.3359
Higher-low chain from Asian range; London high broken in first hour of NY.
Cable has climbed on higher lows from the Asian range through London. NY broke the 1.3349 London high and printed a 1.3360 session high as USD shrugged off import price and industrial production beats. RSI(14) is near 68, warm but not stretched, with the 1.3328 swing low and 1.3310 Asian high below.
Support: 1.3349, 1.3328, 1.3310
Resistance: 1.3360, 1.3400
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.3349 London high would turn the NY breakout into a false break
M15 close below the 1.3328 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising trendline
Acceptance above the 1.3360 session high leaves the 1.3400 round number as the next reference
Bailey remarks and the US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC are the remaining event risk; liquidity thins after London close
14:01 UTC
Uptrend, retesting session high · RSI 66 · price 1.3346
Higher lows since London open, capped near 1.3350.
Cable cleared the Asian range late in Asia and kept printing higher lows through London as lower US yields and dovish Fed-speak weighed on the dollar. The pullback after the US data held the 1.3328 swing low, and the first hour of NY is back testing the 1.3350 session high with RSI(14) near 66.
Support: 1.3328, 1.3309
Resistance: 1.3350, 1.3400
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3350 session high opens the path toward the 1.3400 round number
Break of the 1.3328 swing low and the higher lows trendline ends the London HH/HL chain; the 50% retrace of the Asia-NY leg sits at the 1.3309 london low
A second rejection at 1.3350 leaves a flat double-top ceiling in place for the session
US calendar is thin. Yields, risk sentiment and possible Fed-speak around the weekend IMF meetings drive the next leg
Tight consolidation 1.3328–1.3349 after London breakout above the Asian high.
Cable cleared the Asian high at 1.3307 in early London and ran to a 1.3349 session high as the USD slid on lower yields. Hot US data was ignored. The first-hour NY dip to the 1.3328 ny dip low tagged the 38.2% fib of the London leg and was absorbed; price is now coiling under a 1.3344 lower high with RSI(14) back near 50.
Support: 1.3328, 1.3307, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.3344, 1.3349
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3349 session high (the ~1.3350 level flagged in the digest) ends the pause and resumes the HH chain
Failure to hold the 1.3328 ny dip low and fib 38.2% exposes the asian high at 1.3307 and the 1.3300 round number
Repeated caps at the 1.3344 lower high would turn the pause into a lower-high sequence
Thin US calendar; possible Fed-speak at the weekend IMF meetings is the main event risk
Post-rally consolidation, 1.3328–1.3349 band with lower highs.
The late-Asia break through 1.3300 turned into a London rally to a 1.3349 session high as USD slid on dovish Fed commentary and lower yields. Price has since compressed under a series of lower highs. The first-hour-of-NY dip held the 1.3328 swing low, which sits at the 38.2% retracement of the London rally, and RSI(14) is flat near 51.
Support: 1.3328, 1.3324, 1.3309
Resistance: 1.3344, 1.3349
What it said to watch
US Industrial Production (13:15 UTC) lands in the current bar and could break the 1.3328–1.3349 band either way
M15 close below the 1.3328 swing low exposes the 1.3324 prior high, then the 1.3309 pullback low
M15 close above the 1.3349 session high breaks the lower-high sequence and clears the 1.3350 three-week high
Asia breakout leg topped at 1.3349 in London; lower high and shallow pullback into NY open.
GBPUSD broke above 1.3285 during the Asia session and ran to a 1.3349 session high in London as the USD slide extended. Since then the pair has printed a lower high at 1.3344 and a pullback low at 1.3328 through the London-NY transition, holding near the 23.6% fib of the Asia-London leg. RSI(14) is neutral near 52 and price is just under EMA20.
Support: 1.3328, 1.3306
Resistance: 1.3344, 1.3349
What it said to watch
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could materially shift this read in the first hour of NY
An M15 close below the 1.3328 pullback low opens a deeper retracement toward the asian high at 1.3306
A close above the 1.3349 session high and 1.3350 psych resumes the higher-high chain; the 1.3344 lower high is the first test
HH/HL chain from Asia into London, now a tight range under the 1.3349 session high.
GBP/USD broke yesterday's 1.3278 high during Asia and extended through London to a 1.3349 session high, as USD stayed heavy on lower yields and dovish Fed commentary. Since late London, price has compressed between the 1.3332 range low and the 1.3344 range top. It sits just under ema20 and near the 23.6% of the rally fib, with RSI(14) neutral at 51.
Support: 1.3332, 1.3328, 1.3313
Resistance: 1.3344, 1.3349
What it said to watch
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could break the range either way
M15 close below the 1.3328 swing low breaks the intraday higher-low sequence and exposes the 1.3313 asian high
M15 close above the 1.3349 session high clears the 1.3350 three-week high and resumes the HH chain
12:46 UTC
Uptrend, momentum stalling under session high · RSI 56 · price 1.33388
HH/HL chain from Asia; tight consolidation below 1.3349 into NY open.
USD selling around Warsh's 03:30 UTC IMF remarks pushed GBPUSD through the Asian range high near 1.3305, and London extended the HH/HL chain to a 1.3349 session high. Since then price has compressed between the 1.3333 range low and the 1.3341 range top into NY open, with RSI(14) cooled to ~56 and price still above EMA20.
Support: 1.33333, 1.33281, 1.33086
Resistance: 1.33412, 1.33492
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3349 session high extends the higher-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.3333 range low exposes the 1.3328 swing low and the 38.2% fib near 1.3327
A break of rising support and the london low at 1.3309 would undo the session's HL structure
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
BoE Governor Bailey speech today is a GBP headline risk
London higher high at 1.3349, then lower highs into a tight 1.3333–1.3341 consolidation.
GBP/USD cleared the Asian range high at 1.3313 early in the London session. Broad USD weakness after the Warsh remarks and Bailey's upbeat tone on the UK economy carried it to a 1.3349 session high and through the 1.3325 monthly high. Since then the pair has printed lower highs under a 1.3341 range top, while the 1.3333 pullback low holds on the 38.2% retracement of the London leg. RSI(14) has cooled to the high 50s.
Support: 1.33333, 1.33281, 1.33086
Resistance: 1.33409, 1.33492
What it said to watch
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%), early in the NY session, could materially shift this read
An M15 close below the 1.3333 pullback low exposes the 1.3328 swing low at the 50% fib
Failure at the 1.3328 swing low turns the pullback into a deeper retrace toward the 1.3309 london low
A close above the 1.3341 range top and the 1.3349 session high resumes the London higher-high sequence
HH/HL chain from Asia; lower high forming after 1.3349 peak.
Cable broke above the Asian range after Warsh's 03:30 UTC remarks added to broad USD weakness. London then extended through the 1.3325 monthly high to a 1.3349 session high. Late London is consolidating near the 23.6% fib of the leg, with demand holding the 1.3333 pullback low under a 1.3341 lower high. RSI(14) has cooled to about 65.
Support: 1.3333, 1.3328, 1.3309
Resistance: 1.3341, 1.3349
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3341 lower high and the 1.3349 session high resumes the higher-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.3333 pullback low and the 1.3328 swing low (38.2% fib) puts the 1.3309 london low in play
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could materially shift this read into the NY open
Higher lows above Asian high; shallow pullback into late London.
London extended the Asia breakout on broad USD softness after Warsh, printing a session high at 1.3349 before a pullback to 1.3335, the 38.2% retracement of the London leg. Higher lows at 1.3309, 1.3328 and 1.3335 hold the rising trendline into the NY open, with RSI(14) cooling to ~62 and ATR near 7 pips.
Support: 1.33346, 1.33281, 1.33134
Resistance: 1.33409, 1.33492
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3328 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising trendline
A close above the 1.3349 session high resumes the London leg; the 1.3341 lower high is the first cap
Loss of the 1.3335 pullback low exposes the 1.3313 Asian high as the next shelf
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain since the Asian range break; shallow pullback from 1.3349.
The Asian range (1.3264–1.3307) broke higher at 06:15 UTC, and London extended to a 1.3349 session high on broad USD softness, clearing the 1.3325 monthly-high area. The pullback from 10:30 UTC is holding at a 1.3335 pullback low, near the 38.2% retracement of the London leg, with price capped just under the 1.3340 prior high late in the London session.
Support: 1.33346, 1.33281, 1.33065
Resistance: 1.33399, 1.33492
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.3328 swing low breaks the HL chain and opens a test of the 1.3307 asian high
Close above the 1.3349 session high resumes the HH sequence
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC, around the NY open, could materially shift this read
11:31 UTC
Uptrend, first pullback from session high · RSI 65 · price 1.3337
HH/HL chain since Asia; shallow pullback holding above last higher low.
The Warsh-driven USD slide lifted GBPUSD out of the Asian range during Asia hours. London extended the higher-low chain through the 1.3325 monthly high to a 1.3349 session high, and price is now pulling back to a 1.3335 pullback low, near the 23.6% fib of the Asia-London leg, with a 1.3340 lower high overhead. RSI(14) has cooled to about 65, and the swing low at 1.3328 sits on EMA20 and the 38.2% fib.
Support: 1.3335, 1.3328, 1.3309
Resistance: 1.3340, 1.3349
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3328 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 1.3309 london low
Close above the 1.3349 session high, after clearing the 1.3340 lower high, resumes the London uptrend
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC, early in NY hours, could materially shift this read
11:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, first pullback off the high · RSI 61 · price 1.33369
Higher-low chain from the Asian range breakout; testing first pullback.
USD softness after Warsh's no-guidance remarks lifted GBPUSD out of the Asian range, clearing the 1.3306 Asian high. London extended the higher-low chain through the 1.3325 monthly high to a 1.3349 session high. The 10:45 UTC bar was rejected there and price now sits just under the 1.3340 prior high, with the 1.3328 swing low aligned with the 38.2% of the 1.3292–1.3349 leg.
Support: 1.3328, 1.3325, 1.3306
Resistance: 1.3340, 1.3349
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3328 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and puts the 1.3325 monthly high in play
Loss of the 1.3306 Asian high would put price back inside the Asian range
Close above the 1.3349 session high resumes the London leg
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could materially shift this read
11:01 UTC
Uptrend, steady higher highs into late London · RSI 68 · price 1.33442
HH/HL chain since the London open, holding above trendline support.
USD softness after Warsh's no-guidance remarks lifted GBPUSD out of the Asian range through 1.3300. Price has since stepped up to a 1.3349 session high, clearing the 1.3325 monthly-high area. London has held a clean HH/HL chain along trendline support from the 1.3309 london low, with RSI(14) near 68: firm, not stretched.
Support: 1.3340, 1.3328, 1.3309
Resistance: 1.3349, 1.3400
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.3340 prior high puts the 1.3328 swing low and the London trendline in play
Failure to hold the 1.3309 london low breaks the session HH/HL sequence
Clearance of the 1.3349 session high leaves the 1.3400 round number as the next reference
US Industrial Production 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could shift this read during NY hours
HH/HL chain through London, trading above the Asian range.
GBP/USD stepped higher after Warsh's no-guidance remarks in Asia, then extended through London. Price cleared the 1.3313 Asian high and the ~1.3325 monthly high to a session high at 1.3346, building a HH/HL chain. The Asian high held on the early-London retest, and RSI(14) near 71 reads hot but not stretched.
Support: 1.3328, 1.3313
Resistance: 1.3346, 1.3350
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3328 swing low breaks the HH/HL chain and the rising trendline
Loss of the 1.3313 asian high puts price back inside the Asian range
Close above the 1.3350 round number extends the session high breakout
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) and BoE Bailey remarks today could shift this read via USD
10:31 UTC
Uptrend, higher highs through London · RSI 71 · price 1.33407
HH/HL chain above Asian range high, pressing session high.
USD softness after Warsh's no-guidance remarks lifted the pair through the Asian high at 1.3307. Mid-London, a clean HH/HL chain has cleared the 1.3325 prior high and printed a session high at 1.3342, holding a rising trendline from the 08:00 UTC low. RSI(14) is near 71, short-term hot but not stretched.
Support: 1.3328, 1.33245, 1.33065
Resistance: 1.33418, 1.3350
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3328 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising trendline
Return below the 1.3325 prior high puts the breakout at risk of a false break, with the Asian high at 1.3307 next
Session high at 1.3342 and the 1.3350 round number are areas to watch for rejection or extension
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read via USD
10:16 UTC
Uptrend, pausing under session high · RSI 64 · price 1.33325
HH/HL chain from Asia lows; London extended to 1.3340, now basing just below.
The softer USD after Warsh's speech lifted cable through the 1.3285 Asian high at 03:45 UTC. London then extended the HH/HL chain through the pre-ldn low at 1.3292 and the swing low at 1.3309, reaching a session high of 1.3340 at a fresh monthly high. Price is now holding a micro low near 1.3328, with RSI(14) at 64 and cooling rather than stretched.
Support: 1.33281, 1.33086, 1.32921
Resistance: 1.33399, 1.3350
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3340 session high extends the leg toward the 1.3350 round number
Loss of the 1.3328 micro low puts the rising trendline and the 1.3309 swing low in play; a break there ends the HL chain
Close back below the 1.3292 pre-ldn low unwinds the London breakout
US Industrial Production and import prices at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read via USD
Higher lows since Asia; Asian range broken higher, London consolidating near highs.
USD softness after Warsh's 03:30 UTC remarks lifted cable through the Asian range high near 1.3307. London has stacked higher lows from the 1.3292 Asian low and the 1.3309 london low up to a 1.3340 session high. Price is holding just under that high above the 1.3328 pullback low, with RSI(14) near 66 and not stretched.
Support: 1.3328, 1.3324, 1.3309
Resistance: 1.3340, 1.3350
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3340 session high opens the 1.3350 round number
Loss of the 1.3328 pullback low puts the 1.3324 prior high, the 07:15 UTC peak, back in play
Break of the HL trendline and the 1.3309 london low ends the higher-low chain
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could materially shift this read via USD
09:46 UTC
Uptrend, momentum stretched near session high · RSI 71 · price 1.33325
HH/HL chain since 05:45 UTC; London extended above the Asian high.
The Warsh-led USD slide pushed price through 1.3280 in Asia. Mid-London morning, London has extended that breakout above the 1.3306 Asian high in a clean HH/HL chain to a 1.3340 session high, with RSI(14) near 71. The latest bar was capped at that high, with higher lows at the 1.3309 london low and the 1.3317 swing low still intact along the rising trendline.
Support: 1.33169, 1.33086, 1.32921
Resistance: 1.33399, 1.3350
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.3340 session high opens the 1.3350 round number
A close below the 1.3317 swing low, near the 38.2% pullback fib at 1.3322, breaks the HL chain
Loss of the 1.3309 london low and the rising trendline exposes the 1.3292 pre-ldn low
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC and further Bailey remarks could materially shift this read
09:31 UTC
Uptrend, accelerating into London · RSI 75 · price 1.3336
HH/HL chain since the Asian breakout above 1.3306.
London extended the late-Asia breakout above 1.3306 and cleared the ~1.3325 monthly high to a session high at 1.3337, with soft USD doing much of the work. The higher low at 1.3292 and the swing low at 1.3309 define a rising trendline. RSI(14) near 75 is hot but not extreme.
Support: 1.3325, 1.3309, 1.3292
Resistance: 1.3337, 1.3350
What it said to watch
Holding above the broken 1.3325 monthly high keeps the breakout intact. A slip back below it reads as a false break.
An M15 close below the 1.3309 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising trendline.
The 1.3350 round number is the next reference above the 1.3337 session high.
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could shift the USD leg behind this move.
09:16 UTC
Uptrend, extending into London · RSI 72 · price 1.33276
Higher highs and higher lows since the Asian breakout above 1.3300.
Asia pushed through the 1.3300 round number, and London extended the move to a 1.3329 session high. The dip held at the 1.3309 London low, near the 50–61.8% retracement, and the rising support from the Asian low is intact. RSI(14) is near 72, hot but not extreme, as USD stays heavy after Warsh gave no rate-path signal.
Support: 1.3317, 1.3309, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.3329, 1.3350
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.3317 pullback low breaks the higher-low chain
Loss of the 1.3309 London low and the rising support shifts the focus to the 1.3300 round number
Acceptance above the 1.3329 session high puts the 1.3350 psych level in play
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC in the NY session could materially shift this read
09:01 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 69 · price 1.33206
Higher lows since Asia, flat top near 1.3324.
London open broke the Asian high at 1.33065 on the softer USD backdrop and printed a session high at 1.33245. The 08:15 UTC push stalled at 1.33239, just under that high and the ~1.3325 monthly high. The higher-low trendline from Asia and the 1.33086 swing low sit underneath, RSI(14) near 69.
Support: 1.33086, 1.33065, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.33245
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.33086 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and puts the asian high at 1.33065 and the 1.3300 round number in focus
M15 close above the 1.33245 session high clears the monthly high; a second rejection there leaves a flat top in place
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could shift the USD leg during NY hours
08:46 UTC
Uptrend, pressing session high · RSI 73 · price 1.33231
Higher highs and higher lows since late Asia; London retesting session high.
GBP/USD cleared 1.3300 psych in late Asia on broad USD weakness, then ran to a 1.3325 session high in the first hour of London. The pullback held the 1.3309 london low and price is back retesting the session high with RSI(14) near 73, still riding rising support off the 1.3276 pre-breakout base.
Support: 1.33086, 1.3300, 1.32921
Resistance: 1.33245, 1.3350
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.3325 session high opens the 1.3350 round number
Close below the 1.3309 london low breaks the higher-low chain and brings 1.3300 psych back in focus, near the 50% of the Asia-London leg
Loss of 1.3292 swing low and rising support would turn the breakout into a false break
US Industrial Production 13:15 UTC and further Warsh remarks could materially shift USD tone during NY hours
08:31 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 61 · price 1.3314
Higher highs and higher lows since Asia; London broke the Asian high.
A soft USD after Warsh's non-committal remarks carried GBPUSD through the 1.3300 round number in Asia. London open extended the move to a 1.3325 session high. The pullback held 1.3309, the london low, which sits at the 50% fib of the 1.3292 swing low to session high leg and just above the Asian high, keeping the higher-low chain intact.
Support: 1.3309, 1.3300, 1.3292
Resistance: 1.3325
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.3300 round number puts the breakout above the Asian high in question
Break under the 1.3292 swing low ends the higher-low sequence
Clearance of the 1.3325 session high extends the higher-high chain
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC during NY hours could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain since NY lows; retesting broken pre-London box top.
Softer USD carried GBP/USD through 1.3285 late in the Asia session. The London open then broke the pre-London high at 1.33065 and ran to a 1.33245 London high. Price has since printed a lower high at 1.3321 and is back on the pre-London high, the rising support line and the 38.2% fib of the up-leg, with RSI(14) cooled to ~58.
Support: 1.33065, 1.3300, 1.32921
Resistance: 1.33213, 1.33245
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.3300 round number puts price back inside the pre-London box and opens the 50% fib of the up-leg
Failure to hold the pre-London low at 1.3292 breaks the HH/HL chain
Close above the 1.3321 lower high and the 1.33245 London high resumes the up-leg
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could materially shift this read via the USD
HH/HL chain since 1.3268; 1.3300 range top broken.
A 23-pip burst during Asia cleared the 1.3300 range top, and after a hold at the 1.32921 swing low the London open extended the higher-high chain to a 1.33245 session high as USD stayed heavy. Price is easing toward the 1.3310 London open base with RSI(14) near 71, still above the rising trendline from the 1.3268 low.
Support: 1.3310, 1.3300, 1.32921
Resistance: 1.33245, 1.3350
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 1.3300 range top turns the breakout into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.32921 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising trendline
Clearance of the 1.33245 session high opens the 1.3350 round number
Holding the 38.2–61.8% fib of the 1.3292–1.3325 leg keeps the pullback shallow
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
07:31 UTC
Uptrend, extending into London open · RSI 69 · price 1.3317
Higher highs and higher lows since the Asian-session base; Asian range high broken pre-London.
Dollar softness after Warsh's remarks, which added nothing new on rates, lifted GBPUSD off the 1.3276 swing low through 1.3300. A pre-London break of the 1.3306 Asian high carried price to a 1.3318 session high at London open. The pullback low at 1.3292 held near the 61.8% of the leg, keeping the higher-low chain on the rising lows line intact, and RSI(14) near 69 is warm but not stretched.
Support: 1.3306, 1.3292, 1.3276
Resistance: 1.3318, 1.3350
What it said to watch
London session close back below the 1.3306 Asian high would turn the breakout into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.3292 pullback low and the rising lows line breaks the higher-low chain, leaving the 1.3276 swing low exposed
Sustained trade above the 1.3318 session high leaves the 1.3350 round number as the next reference
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since 00:00 UTC; Asian range high broken.
Cable spiked through 1.3300 on Warsh's 03:30 UTC remarks, which added nothing new on rates and left USD heavy. Price then cleared the 1.33065 Asian high pre-London and is holding near the 1.33134 session high into London open. RSI(14) is near 73, warm but not stretched.
Support: 1.33065, 1.3300, 1.32921
Resistance: 1.33134
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.3300 round number would mark the breakout as a false break
Failure to hold the 1.32921 pullback low breaks the higher-low chain from the Asia-London leg
Asian high at 1.33065 is the first retest area if London fades the move
Acceptance above the 1.33134 session high extends the leg into fresh October highs
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) is the next scheduled USD risk
07:01 UTC
Uptrend, extending into London open · RSI 70 · price 1.33111
Higher lows after late-Asia break above 1.3300.
GBP/USD broke above the 1.3300 round number late in the Asian session as the USD stayed heavy after Thursday's hot PPI was faded. The pullback held a 1.3292 swing low, and the next push set a 1.3312 session high just ahead of London open. The rising-lows chain is intact and RSI(14) near 70 reads hot but not stretched.
Support: 1.3300, 1.3292, 1.3278
Resistance: 1.3312, 1.3350
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.3300 round number through London open puts the 1.3292 swing low back in play
M15 close below 1.3292 breaks the rising-lows trendline and the higher-low sequence; the 1.3278 prior high (Thursday NY high) is next below
A sustained break of the 1.3312 session high leaves the 1.3350 psych level as the next round figure
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC and any Warsh headlines could materially shift this read
06:31 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at 1.3300 · RSI 63 · price 1.32969
HH/HL chain from Asian low; shallow pullback back under round number.
With the USD still heavy, Asia lifted cable through Thursday's 1.3278 prior high and the 1.3285 asia break. It cleared the 1.3300 round number and printed a 1.3307 session high, then slipped back under 1.3300 within the hour. The pullback has held the 1.3292 pullback low, just above the 38.2% of the Asian leg fib, with RSI(14) easing to ~63 into London open.
Support: 1.3292, 1.3285, 1.3278
Resistance: 1.3300, 1.3307
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.3300 round number re-opens the 1.3307 session high
Failure to hold the 1.3292 pullback low exposes the 1.3285 asia break and the 50% of the Asian leg fib
Loss of the 1.3278 prior high and rising support would turn the Asian breakout into a false break
Warsh fireside chat today and US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
06:16 UTC
Uptrend, pausing after Asia spike · RSI 63 · price 1.32972
Asia breakout above prior-day high, shallow pullback holding.
GBPUSD spiked 26 pips through the 1.3300 round number after Warsh's 03:30 UTC remarks offered no fresh hawkish signal. Price set a session high at 1.33065, then pulled back to the fib 38.2 at 1.3292. It is holding above the prior high at 1.3278 into the pre-London hour, with RSI(14) cooling to 63.
Support: 1.3292, 1.3278, 1.3268
Resistance: 1.3300, 1.33065
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.3292 fib 38.2 opens a retest of the 1.3278 prior high; an M15 close back below 1.3278 would mark a false break
An M15 close above the 1.33065 session high extends the Asia breakout leg
Loss of the 1.3268 asian low would unwind the full overnight move
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could shift the read
06:01 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back after impulse · RSI 57 · price 1.32952
Breakout above the early-Asia range, now retracing toward the breakout pivot.
Late Asia, ahead of London open: GBPUSD broke out of the 1.3264–1.3285 early-Asia range after Warsh's 03:30 UTC remarks added no hawkish impetus to an already heavy USD. It printed a 1.3306 session high, and 1.3300 psych has since capped. Price is drifting back to the 38.2% retrace near 1.3295, with the 1.3291 swing low and the 1.3285 breakout pivot below; Thursday's prior high at 1.3278 sits underneath.
Support: 1.3291, 1.3285, 1.3278
Resistance: 1.3300, 1.33065
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.3285 breakout pivot reopens the range and flags a false break
Loss of the 1.3291 swing low (50% retrace) puts the prior high at 1.3278 in play
Close above the 1.3306 session high extends the higher-high sequence through 1.3300 psych
London open liquidity, then US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC, could shift this read
Asia breakout above 1.3285, shallow pullback holding higher low.
Late in the Asia session, GBPUSD broke out of the 1.3265–1.3285 Asian range with a 26-pip bar at 03:45 UTC and tagged a 1.3307 session high, extending the USD-led rebound. Price has slipped back under the 1.3300 round number but the pullback low at 1.3291 is holding near the 38.2% fib. The breakout lvl at 1.3285 and the prior high at 1.3278 sit below.
Support: 1.3291, 1.3285, 1.3278
Resistance: 1.3300, 1.33065
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.3285 breakout lvl would turn the Asia move into a false break and expose the 1.3278 prior high
Acceptance above the 1.3307 session high extends the breakout; repeated rejection under the 1.3300 round number keeps it capped
London open is the first test of whether the 1.3291 pullback low holds
Fed Chair Warsh remarks today and US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
05:16 UTC
Uptrend, consolidating after breakout · RSI 76 · price 1.33032
Asian range broken higher, holding above 1.3300.
GBPUSD broke the 1.3264–1.3285 Asian range at 03:45 UTC on a USD-led move. It cleared the prior NY high near 1.3278 and the 1.3300 round number, and is now holding just above it into London open. The 1.32911 pullback low held, rising support from yesterday's 1.3231 NY low remains intact, and RSI(14) near 76 is short-term hot but not extreme.
Support: 1.3300, 1.32911, 1.32849
Resistance: 1.33065
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.32849 Asian high would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.32911 pullback low breaks the post-breakout higher-low sequence
Session high at 1.33065 is the area to watch for rejection or extension at London open
Fed Chair Warsh remarks today and US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows through Asia, breakout above prior high.
Late in the Asia session a 26-pip bar cleared the 1.3278 prior high and the 1.3300 round number, capping a run of higher lows off the 1.3268 rollover area. The first pullback held at the 1.3291 swing low and set a 1.3307 session high. The move tracks the broad USD slide to a 10-day low. RSI(14) near 72 is hot but not extreme.
Support: 1.3300, 1.32911, 1.3278
Resistance: 1.33065
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.3300 round number would mark the breakout as a false break
Loss of the 1.3278 prior high, near the 61.8% retrace of the Asian leg, breaks the higher-lows chain
London open is the first test of acceptance above the 1.3307 session high
Warsh remarks and US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could shift the USD tone
04:31 UTC
Uptrend, impulsive Asia breakout now pausing · RSI 71 · price 1.32955
Higher lows through Asia, broke Asian high, stalled at 1.3300.
Late in the Asia session a 26-pip bar broke the Asian high at 1.3285 and tagged a session high of 1.3305, extending the USD-led rebound. The next bar was a rejection back under the 1.3300 round number to a pullback low of 1.3291, near the 50% retrace of the move. RSI(14) is cooling from the low 70s and the Asian rising lows remain intact beneath.
Support: 1.32911, 1.32849, 1.3278
Resistance: 1.3300, 1.33047
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3305 session high clears the round number cap
Break of the 1.3291 pullback low puts the 1.3285 Asian high and the 61.8% retrace in play
Return below the 1.3278 prior high and the Asian rising lows trendline negates the breakout
London open is under 3h away; Fed Chair Warsh speaks today and US Industrial Production is due 13:15 UTC, either could shift the read
04:16 UTC
Uptrend, impulsive extension late Asia · RSI 82 · price 1.33019
HH/HL chain off the 1.3264 Asian low, broken out above the Asian high.
The USD fade extended on Warsh's 03:30 UTC speech. A single 26-pip bar cleared the 1.3285 asian high and the 1.3300 psych level from the warsh low at 1.3276, and the 1.3305 spike high is the current cap into the late-Asia hours. RSI(14) near 82 is stretched after one impulse bar, and ATR(14) has lifted to about 5 pips.
Support: 1.3300, 1.3285, 1.32757
Resistance: 1.33047
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 1.3300 psych level would flag a false break of the range top ahead of London open
A retracement of the Warsh leg into the 1.3285 asian high, the 61.8% zone, tests whether the breakout holds
Loss of the warsh low at 1.3276 and the Asian higher-low line unwinds the spike
Acceptance above the 1.3305 spike high extends the breakout into the London session
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could shift the USD tone during NY hours
04:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend, fresh highs late Asia · RSI 64 · price 1.32845
Higher lows off the Asian low, prior high broken and retested.
Late Asia session pushed out of the 1.3268–1.3277 Asian range and through yesterday's NY prior high at 1.3278, with the Warsh-speech dip to 1.3276 absorbed and price printing a new session high at 1.3285. Rising support from the Asian low is intact, and the move extends a USD-led leg higher following the hot US PPI print. RSI(14) at 64 is warm, not stretched.
Support: 1.3277, 1.3268
Resistance: 1.3285, 1.3300
What it said to watch
Close back below the 1.3277 prior high turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of rising support and the 1.3268 Asian low breaks the higher-low chain
1.3285 session high, then the 1.3300 range top, as areas to watch for rejection or extension
Ongoing Warsh remarks could materially shift this read; London open in ~3h
03:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, extending into Asia · RSI 72 · price 1.32826
Asian range broken higher, prior NY high cleared.
Asia session broke above the 1.3268–1.3274 Asian range from 02:00 UTC and cleared the 1.3278 prior high from late NY. It printed a 1.3285 session high, with RSI(14) near 72. The pair is pressing the 1.3280–1.3300 range top after the post-PPI USD fade on lower yields, and the move has stalled just under the session high as Warsh's 03:30 UTC speech gets under way.
Support: 1.3278, 1.3268, 1.3264
Resistance: 1.3285, 1.3300
What it said to watch
Warsh speech (03:30 UTC, now) could materially shift this read; a hawkish lean on hike timing tends to revive USD
M15 close back below the 1.3278 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break
Acceptance above the 1.3285 session high puts the 1.3300 round number in play
Loss of the 1.3268 asian low and the 1.3264 gap low unwinds the rising lows and the Asia-break leg
03:31 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher in Asia · RSI 67 · price 1.32815
Higher lows since rollover; prior high 1.3278 broken.
Asia session cleared the prior high at 1.3278 to print a 1.3285 session high. That extends the rebound from the 1.3231 post-PPI low as falling US yields kept USD heavy. Higher lows from the 1.3264 Asian low and 1.3269 swing low remain intact, with RSI(14) firm but not stretched.
Support: 1.3278, 1.32692, 1.32641
Resistance: 1.32849, 1.3300
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh speaks at 03:30 UTC, the next bar, and could materially shift this read
M15 close back below the 1.3278 prior high would mark the breakout as a false break
Failure of the 1.3269 swing low breaks the higher-low chain toward the 1.3264 asian low and the 38.2% fib
Close above the 1.3285 session high puts the 1.3300 round number (digest range top) in play
Higher lows through Asia, push above prior high 1.3278.
Late in the Asia session, GBPUSD broke out of its Asian range on a chain of higher lows. It cleared the prior high at 1.3278 and printed a session high at 1.3285, extending the recovery from the post-PPI NY low as falling yields kept USD heavy. Price now sits at the lower edge of the 1.3280–1.3300 range-top zone, with RSI(14) firm but not stretched and ATR around 4 pips.
Support: 1.3278, 1.3264, 1.3244
Resistance: 1.3285, 1.3300
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close back below the 1.3278 prior high turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the Asian higher lows and the 1.3264 asian low reopens the 1.3244 ny low
Acceptance above the 1.3285 session high puts the 1.3300 round number in play
03:01 UTC
Uptrend, compressing under highs · RSI 61 · price 1.32773
Higher lows since 1.3231 into flat highs at 1.3276–1.3280; tight Asian range.
Cable has printed higher lows along a rising line from the post-US-data low at 1.3231, with USD softness on falling yields doing the lifting. Late in the Asia session price is holding a 1.3268–1.3280 range and pressing the 1.3280 session high for a fourth time. RSI(14) is near 61 and ATR is about 3.5 pips, so volatility is compressed ahead of Warsh at 03:30 UTC.
Support: 1.3268, 1.3264, 1.3244
Resistance: 1.3280, 1.3300
What it said to watch
Warsh speaks at 03:30 UTC (~30m) and could materially shift this read; the 3.5-pip ATR understates that event risk
An M15 close above the 1.3280 session high opens the path to the 1.3300 range top
A break below the 1.3268 asian low and the higher-low line exposes the 1.3264 swing low and the 38.2% rally fib near 1.3261, with the 1.3244 ny low beneath
02:46 UTC
Uptrend, compressing late in Asia · RSI 62 · price 1.32775
Higher lows since the US-data low; Asian range 1.3264–1.3278 with price at its top.
Late in the Asia session, GBP/USD is pressing the 1.3278 prior high, yesterday's NY peak, at the top of a tight 1.3264–1.3278 Asian range. Higher lows have held since the 1.3231 US-data spike was absorbed as yields fell, and the Asia higher lows off the 1.3264 gap low are intact.
Support: 1.3268, 1.3264, 1.3244
Resistance: 1.3278, 1.3300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3278 prior high opens the 1.3300 round number, the digest's range cap
Break of the 1.3268 asian low returns price to the 1.3264 gap low; a loss of the 1.3244 swing low ends the higher-low chain
Fed Chair Warsh at 03:30 UTC (~45m) could materially shift this read; ATR near 3.6 pips understates the likely move
02:31 UTC
Sideways at highs after NY rally · RSI 58 · price 1.32766
Tight Asian range 1.3268–1.3276 pressing the 1.3278 range top.
The NY rally from the 1.3244 ny swing low topped at 1.3278 as USD slid on falling yields despite hot PPI. Price has since held an 8-pip Asian range above the 1.3264 late ny low. Bailey's 02:00 UTC speech lifted price to 1.32777, a third test of the range top, with ATR near 3 pips.
Support: 1.32676, 1.32644, 1.32444
Resistance: 1.3278, 1.3300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3278 range top opens the 1.3300 round number
Warsh at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 1.3268 asian low exposes the 1.3264 late ny low
Loss of 1.3244 ny swing low would retrace the full NY rally
02:16 UTC
Uptrend stalled, Asian compression · RSI 56 · price 1.32745
Tight Asian range below NY high.
Cable ran from the 1.3231 PPI spike low to the 1.3278 ny high as yields slid and UK GDP beat. Since then, Asia has compressed in a 1.3268–1.3276 band between the asian low and asian high, holding above the 23.6% level of the NY rally fib. ATR sits near 3 pips and RSI(14) is a neutral 56, so the range is coiled into Bailey's 02:00 UTC speech.
Support: 1.3268, 1.3265, 1.3250
Resistance: 1.3276, 1.3278, 1.3300
What it said to watch
Bailey (now) and Warsh at 03:30 UTC are the likely catalysts for a break of the 1.3268–1.3276 Asian range
M15 close above the 1.3278 ny high opens the 1.3300 range top
Loss of the 1.3268 asian low exposes the 1.3265 swing low, then 1.3250 psych near the 38.2% of the NY rally fib
Tight Asian range 1.3264–1.3276 beneath Thursday's 1.3278 high.
Thursday's NY rally ran from the post-data ny low at 1.3231 to a 1.3278 prior high as the USD faded on falling yields after a hot PPI, with the UK GDP beat adding support. Friday's Asia session is compressing in a 12-pip band between the 1.3264 asia low and 1.3276. Price sits just below EMA20, RSI(14) is neutral near 46 and ATR(14) is about 3 pips.
Support: 1.3264, 1.3260, 1.3231
Resistance: 1.3278, 1.3300
What it said to watch
BoE Bailey speaks at 02:00 UTC and is the immediate catalyst for a break of the 1.3264–1.3276 Asian range
M15 close above the 1.3278 prior high opens the path to the 1.3300 range top
Loss of the 1.3264 asia low exposes the 1.3260 swing low, which lines up with the 38.2% retracement of the NY rally
Failure at 1.3260 would bring the 50% retracement near 1.3254 into view, with the 1.3231 ny low below
Fed Chair Warsh at 03:30 UTC could reverse the USD leg that drove the NY rally
01:46 UTC
Flat after NY rally, compressing below day high · RSI 53 · price 1.32718
Tight Asian range 1.3264–1.3276 under 1.3278 day high.
GBPUSD is compressing in a 1.3268–1.3274 band early in the Asia session. The Asian range is 1.3264–1.3276, just under the 1.3278 day high set in NY as the USD faded after the hot PPI. Supply capped 1.3278 twice in late NY, and price is holding above the 23.6% fib of the NY 1.3231–1.3278 leg. RSI(14) is neutral near 53, and ATR(14) has shrunk to about 4 pips ahead of Bailey.
Support: 1.3264, 1.3260, 1.3250
Resistance: 1.3278, 1.3300
What it said to watch
Bailey speaks at 02:00 UTC (about 15 min); his framing of the November hike could break the Asian range either way
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC is a second volatility window for the USD side
An M15 close above the 1.3278 day high clears the double rejection and opens the 1.3300 round number
Failure to hold the 1.3264 asian low exposes the 38.2% fib at 1.3260, then 1.3250 psych
After the rollover gap, the Asia session is compressing in a 6-pip range (1.3268 range low to 1.3274 range top). That sits above the 1.3264 Asian low and just under the 1.3278 NY high, set on the USD selloff that followed hot US PPI. The Asian low held near the 23.6% of the NY rally fib, with RSI(14) neutral at 52 and ATR(14) at about 4 pips ahead of Bailey.
Support: 1.3268, 1.3264, 1.3244
Resistance: 1.3274, 1.3278, 1.3300
What it said to watch
Bailey at 02:00 UTC and Warsh at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read and break the Asian compression
M15 close above the 1.3278 NY high clears the 1.3280 cap zone, opening the 1.3300 round number
Loss of the 1.3264 Asian low exposes the 1.3260 area (38.2% of the NY rally fib) and the 1.3244 swing low
A break of the range top or range low ends the current compression
01:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, paused in Asia · RSI 51 · price 1.32699
Tight Asian range capped below prior high.
London and NY built a higher-high, higher-low chain from the 1.3231 post-PPI spike low to a 1.3278 prior high as USD faded the hot US data. Asia has compressed into a 1.3264–1.3276 range (asian low to asian high) just under that high and inside the UOB 1.3260–1.3280 cap zone. ATR(14) is near 3 pips with RSI flat at 51, so no break is in play.
Support: 1.3264, 1.3260, 1.32444
Resistance: 1.32764, 1.3278
What it said to watch
Bailey at 02:00 UTC and Warsh at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read and break the Asian range.
An M15 close above the 1.3278 prior high would clear the UOB cap zone and extend the higher-high chain.
Loss of the 1.3264 asian low exposes the 1.3260 fib 38.2. Failure there opens the 1.3244 swing low and would mark a lower-low.
01:01 UTC
Uptrend, stalling below day high · RSI 52 · price 1.32708
Higher lows since NY dip, compressed Asian range.
Thursday's NY-session spike to 1.3231 on the US PPI and retail data held near the prior Asian low. The USD-led NY rebound then built higher lows into a 1.3278 day high. Friday's Asia session is coiling between the 1.3268 asia low and the 1.3276 asia high, holding above the 1.3264 gap low and the 23.6% fib of that rebound, with ATR under 4 pips ahead of Bailey.
Support: 1.32676, 1.3264, 1.32444
Resistance: 1.32764, 1.3278, 1.3300
What it said to watch
Bailey speech at 02:00 UTC could materially shift this read; Warsh follows at 03:30 UTC
M15 close above the 1.3278 day high opens the path to the 1.3300 round number, the top of the cited range
Failure to hold the 1.3268 asia low and 1.3264 gap low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 1.3244 swing low
Higher lows since 12:30 UTC spike; tight Asian range under 1.3278 cap.
Broad USD weakness carried GBP/USD off the 1.3231 data-spike low at 12:30 UTC into a higher-low grind through NY. The 1.3276–1.3278 session high has capped three tests. Asia is compressing in a 1.3268–1.3274 range above the asian low, with RSI(14) flat at 50 and ATR(14) near 3.5 pips.
Support: 1.32676, 1.3264, 1.3250
Resistance: 1.3278, 1.3300
What it said to watch
Bailey at 02:00 UTC and Warsh at 03:30 UTC are the likely catalysts to break the compressed Asian range
M15 close above the 1.3278 session high opens the 1.3300 round number, the base of the broader range top
Loss of the 1.3264 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes 1.3250 psych
Holding the asian low near the 23.6% retrace of the data-spike leg keeps the pullback shallow
00:31 UTC
Uptrend, stalling under day high · RSI 45 · price 1.32691
Higher lows since NY data spike; flat cap at 1.3278, tight Asian drift.
A soft USD and the UK GDP beat carried a higher-low sequence through London and NY from the 1.3231 post-US-data spike low. Rejection at the 1.3278 day high has repeated four times since London. Early Asia is drifting in a 1.3264–1.3276 band just under EMA20, holding the asian low near the 38.2% fib.
Support: 1.3264, 1.3245
Resistance: 1.3278, 1.3300
What it said to watch
BoE Bailey at 02:00 UTC and Fed Chair Warsh at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.3278 day high breaks the cap and opens the 1.3300 round number
Failure to hold the 1.3264 asian low (38.2% fib) exposes the 1.3245 swing low and ends the higher-low chain
Twin rejection at 1.3278, Asia holding above 1.3264 gap low.
Thursday's NY rally from the 1.3246 swing low, driven by USD weakness after the dollar faded hot PPI, was capped twice at the 1.3278 session high. The rollover gap found a floor at the 1.3264 gap low. Early Asia is compressing around 1.3270, with the last bar slipping to 1.3268, ahead of Bailey and Warsh.
Support: 1.3264, 1.3246
Resistance: 1.3278, 1.3300
What it said to watch
Bailey at 02:00 UTC and Warsh at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.3264 gap low exposes the 50% retrace of the NY rally and the 1.3246 swing low
M15 close above the 1.3278 session high opens the 1.3300 round number, the top of the broader range
GBP/USD rode soft-USD and UK data-beat flows through London and NY. The NY spike low at 1.3231 and the ny swing low at 1.3244 set higher lows, and late NY printed a 1.3278 session high just under the 1.3280–1.3300 range top. The rollover gap low at 1.3264 held near the 38.2% fib. Early Asia is now coiling at 1.3270–1.3273 around EMA20, with ATR(14) compressed near 4 pips ahead of Bailey and Warsh.
Support: 1.3264, 1.3244, 1.3231
Resistance: 1.3278, 1.3300
What it said to watch
Bailey at 02:00 UTC and Warsh at 03:30 UTC could expand the compressed range and shift this read
M15 close above the 1.3278 session high puts the 1.3280–1.3300 range top and the 1.3300 round number in play
Loss of the 1.3264 gap low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 1.3244 ny swing low
Break below the 1.3231 ny spike low unwinds the NY-session advance