Lower highs from 1.3675, first clean break of the July–September base.
The rally that ran from the mid-June low at 1.3140 to 1.3675 has rolled over: the last three weeks built a chain of lower highs and this week's slide has taken price through the 1.3480–1.3560 shelf that contained the past month, closing at 1.3347 below both EMA20 and EMA50. The trigger was macro — an in-line 6-3 BoE hold against a hawkish Fed hike that leaves US rates above Bank Rate — and the break lands almost exactly on the 61.8% retracement of the whole June–August advance. RSI(14) at 31 is at its lowest of the window, the first genuinely stretched daily reading since June, with the current base at 1.3336 the immediate reference.
Support: 1.3336, 1.3300, 1.3284
Resistance: 1.3400, 1.3460, 1.3505
What it said to watch
Daily close below 1.3336 current base opens the 1.3300 round number and the 1.3284 swing low
A daily close back above the 1.3460 prior low would neutralise the range break read
Price remains below the rising trendline off the June low — reclaiming the ema20 near 1.3505 is the condition for repairing the uptrend
UK Retail Sales Friday 06:00 GMT is the nearest domestic catalyst; the 23 Sep US flash PMIs are the next high-impact event for the dollar leg
Lower highs since early Sept, prior support at 1.3455 broken.
The three-month advance off the mid-June 1.3140 low topped at 1.3675 in early September and has since rolled into a chain of lower highs, with Wednesday's 125-pip session breaking the 200-dma near 1.3455 after the Fed's hawkish 25bp hike; the in-line BoE hold at 3.75% produced no repricing impulse. Price now trades below both EMA20 (~1.3505) and EMA50 (~1.3475), with the last close at 1.3367 sitting on the 61.8% retracement of the June–September swing and just above the 1.3372 weekly low. RSI(14) at 30.8 is at its lowest of the window, the first genuinely stretched daily reading since June.
Support: 1.3372, 1.3300, 1.3284
Resistance: 1.3455, 1.3505, 1.3675
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.3372 weekly low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 1.3300 round number, then the 1.3284 swing low
A daily close back above the 200-dma at 1.3455 would invalidate the break and put the EMA20 near 1.3505 back in play
UK Retail Sales Fri 06:00 GMT (-0.2% m/m f/c) is the first hard demand read after the BoE hold and can set the weekly close
US claims/Philly Fed today and next week's flash PMIs are the near-term drivers of the dollar leg of this move
Lower highs from 1.3675, range break below 1.3464.
The advance off the June low at 1.3163 topped at the 1.3675 cycle high in late August and has rolled over into a chain of lower highs; the last three sessions delivered a range break below the 1.3464 prior low, the widest daily bar in the window (125 pips) and a close under both EMA(20) near 1.3510 and EMA(50). The hawkish Fed hike to 3.75-4.00% against a fully-priced 6-3 BoE hold has compressed the rate gap, and price is now sitting on the 61.8% retracement of the June-August swing at 1.3359, just above the 1.3350 psych level. RSI(14) at 30 is the lowest reading of the four-month window, so the fall is stretched on a weekly cadence even as structure has flipped.
Support: 1.3350, 1.3273, 1.3163
Resistance: 1.3464, 1.3510, 1.3675
What it said to watch
Daily close back above 1.3464 prior low would invalidate the range break read
Loss of 1.3350 psych on a daily close opens the 1.3273 swing low, then the 1.3163 june low
EMA(20) near 1.3510 now sits above price — a reclaim there would repair the lower-high sequence
UK Retail Sales Fri 06:00 GMT and next week's flash PMIs are the near-term structural tests