Range break to fresh two-month lows; lower highs, lower lows.
GBPUSD broke the multi-week 1.3300-1.3460 range and is pressing fresh two-month lows sub-1.3200 after a soft UK CPI read and a hawkish Fed, with the BoE hold failing to arrest the slide. ATR(14) has expanded sharply as the last several bars accelerated lower, and price sits well below both EMA20 and EMA50. The 1.3340 region that previously held as range floor now caps as resistance.
Support: 1.3193, 1.3150
Resistance: 1.3300, 1.3340, 1.3461
What it said to watch
An H4 close back above 1.3300 pivot would neutralise the range break
Failure to hold 1.3193 confirms continuation to the next swing near 1.3150
UK Retail Sales (Fri 06:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
GBPUSD is in a clear H4 downtrend, slicing to fresh two-month lows below 1.3200 after the hawkish Fed dot-plot shift and softer UK CPI hit sterling on both sides. The break of the 1.3300 pivot accelerated the decline, with ATR(14) expanding as price runs well below EMA20 and EMA50. The 1.3200 psych level has been swept and price is sitting on its lows into the close.
Support: 1.3200, 1.31927, 1.32049
Resistance: 1.3300
What it said to watch
Sustained close below 1.3200 confirms the breakdown and opens room toward prior lows
Reclaim of 1.3300 pivot would neutralise the breakdown read
UK Retail Sales (Fri 06:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
GBPUSD rolled over hard through the 1.3300 round level to print fresh two-month lows near 1.3205, the structural extension of soft UK CPI, an in-line BoE hold and the hawkish Fed pivot. ATR(14) is expanding as the move accelerates and price sits well below both EMA20 and EMA50, with the down-leg from the 1.3461 swing high unbroken. RSI is in oversold territory but momentum has yet to stabilise.
Support: 1.3205, 1.3200, 1.3100
Resistance: 1.3300, 1.3396, 1.3417
What it said to watch
Loss of 1.3200 opens the path toward the 1.3100 area
A close back above 1.3300 would challenge the lower-high structure
UK Retail Sales Fri 06:00 UTC could materially shift this read
GBPUSD rolled over from the 1.3460 area and broke decisively below the 1.3260 two-month low, printing fresh lows at 1.3205 as the post-Fed hawkish repricing and soft UK CPI compounded selling. ATR(14) has expanded sharply on the last several bars, with price extended well below both EMAs and RSI in oversold territory. Structure is clean lower-lows with no swing-high breach to interrupt the slide.
Support: 1.32049, 1.3200, 1.3100
Resistance: 1.32944, 1.3300, 1.3417
What it said to watch
H4 close back above 1.3300 would invalidate the breakdown read
Sustained acceptance below 1.3200 opens the path toward 1.3100
UK Retail Sales Fri 06:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Cable rolled over below the 1.3300 pivot and sliced through the prior 1.3260 two-month low, extending a clean lower-high/lower-low sequence as the post-hawkish-Fed USD bid dominates. The decline accelerated into a fresh low at 1.3205 with price well below both EMAs and ATR(14) expanding, consistent with a trend extension rather than compression. RSI is oversold but not yet diverging.
Support: 1.3205, 1.3100
Resistance: 1.3260, 1.3300
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 1.3260 broken low would neutralise the breakdown read
Failure to hold 1.3205 session low opens the path toward the 1.3100 psych level
UK Retail Sales Fri 06:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Cable rolled over from the 1.3461 swing high into a clean lower-high, lower-low downtrend and has now sliced through the 1.3260 two-month low, a largely USD-driven move after the hawkish Warsh-led Fed flipped the 2026 dot path. ATR(14) has expanded sharply as price extends, with both EMAs capping above. The break leaves 1.3205 as the immediate floor and 1.3100 in focus below.
Support: 1.3205, 1.3100
Resistance: 1.3260, 1.3417
What it said to watch
A close back above 1.3260 would neutralise the breakout and the lower-low read
UK Retail Sales Fri 06:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Failure to hold 1.3205 opens the path toward 1.3100
Cable rolled over from the 1.3460 swing high and snapped through the 1.3300 psych level on a 140-pip impulse bar after the hawkish Warsh-led Fed, extending the multi-day downtrend to a fresh two-month low at 1.3262. Price is consolidating just under 1.3300 with both EMAs overhead, and ATR(14) has expanded sharply as the move extends rather than compresses. RSI near 37 reflects the leg down without yet reaching washout territory.
Support: 1.32619, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3300, 1.3417, 1.34608
What it said to watch
BoE rate decision and vote split ~2h out is the binary that reshapes this read
H4 close back above 1.3300 would neutralise the breakout and re-engage the 200-dma at 1.3417
Failure to hold 1.3262 confirms continuation toward the 1.3200 psych level
Cable rolled over below the 1.3300 psych level and printed a fresh two-month low at 1.3262 after the hawkish Fed and soft UK CPI weighed through the week; price trades well below both EMA20 and EMA50. ATR(14) has expanded sharply on the latest leg, confirming a trend-extension regime rather than compression. The bounce to 1.3295 is shallow against the 1.3417 200-DMA that now caps from above.
Support: 1.3262, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.3417
What it said to watch
BoE rate decision and vote split in ~2h is the binary driver for this read
Failure to hold 1.3262 confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence
H4 close back above 1.3300 would neutralise the breakdown
05:01 UTC
Downtrend resuming after range break · RSI 34 · price 1.33176
Broke below multi-day 1.3400 range floor.
Price spent two weeks coiling in a 1.3400-1.3460 range before a sharp impulsive break lower, sliding through 1.3400 and the 200-DMA at 1.3417 to print 1.3262 — the breakdown lining up with a hawkish Fed/firm USD and soft UK May CPI. ATR(14) expanded sharply on the breakdown bar as price closed back below the prior range floor, which now caps as resistance. RSI near 33 reflects the momentum behind the drop without yet being deeply stretched.
Support: 1.32619, 1.3300, 1.3100
Resistance: 1.3400, 1.3417, 1.34608
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.3400/1.3417 would invalidate the range-break read and put price back in the prior range
Sustained acceptance below 1.3300 keeps the 1.3100 zone in view
UK labour data 06:00 UTC and BoE decision 11:00 UTC are the dominant near-term catalysts and could materially shift this read
GBPUSD spent three weeks oscillating around 1.3400 before breaking down hard, with the latest H4 bar slicing to 1.32619 and printing a fresh lower low. The move follows soft UK May CPI (core 2.6% miss) trimming BoE bets while a hawkish Warsh-led Fed and a retail-sales beat keep the dollar bid. Price has lost the 200-DMA pivot at 1.3417 and the 1.3400 weekly floor, both of which now cap as resistance.
Support: 1.3262, 1.3100
Resistance: 1.3400, 1.3417
What it said to watch
Reclaim above 1.3400/1.3417 would invalidate the breakdown read
Loss of 1.3262 swing low opens the path toward the 1.3100 zone
UK labour data 06:00 UTC then BoE decision 11:00 UTC are the dominant catalysts and could reset this read
Cable spent roughly two weeks boxed between 1.3320 and 1.3460 before the final bars sliced cleanly through the 1.3417 200-DMA and the lower range edge, printing a fresh weekly low at 1.3262 as soft UK May CPI unwound BoE hike bets and a firm post-FOMC USD pressed the offer. ATR(14) has expanded on the break, with price now trading well below both EMA20 and EMA50. Structure has rolled over from balance to a lower-low sequence.
Support: 1.3262, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.3417, 1.3460
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 200-DMA 1.3417 negates the breakdown read
UK labour data Thu 06:00 UTC and BoE decision Thu 11:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Failure to hold 1.3262 opens the path toward 1.3100