11:41 UTC
No macro trend, range-bound and drifting lower · RSI 51 · price 1.33884
Multi-quarter range, lower highs since January.
Regime is range, not trend: since the Q4 2025 range low at 1.3010 price has oscillated in a 1.3010-1.3869 band, with the January yearly high at 1.38689 unchallenged and a sequence of lower highs (1.3675, 1.3643) capping every attempt since. Price at 1.3388 sits mid-range and just below a flat W1 EMA(50) around 1.3415, so the macro filter offers no directional information; the 1.3435 pivot cap is the immediate ceiling and 1.3300 remains the psych magnet. The hawkish Fed hike and upgraded dots against a 6-3 BoE hold with a dovish-flavoured QT overhaul explain the last two weekly closes rolling over from 1.3527.
Support: 1.3300, 1.3163, 1.3010
Resistance: 1.3435, 1.36754, 1.38689
What it said to watch
- A weekly close below the 1.3300 psych area would expose the 1.3163 swing low and, beyond it, the 1.3010 range low
- Reclaiming the 1.3435 pivot cap and closing back above EMA(50) would restore the upper half of the range
- RSI mid-range at ~51 — no weekly extreme, consistent with the range read rather than a trend
- UK flash PMIs Wed and shifts in Fed October hike pricing are the near-term drivers of where in the range the week closes