21:02 UTC
Uptrend, stalling below 1.34 · RSI 44 · price 1.33697
Higher lows since 1.3137, now ranging 1.3355-1.3419.
Higher-low structure has held since the 1.3137 flush, with the leg to the 1.3419 monthly high driven by a hot UK core CPI and a PMI beat that cemented BoE hike pricing. Since then price has ranged for four days between the 1.3355 range low and 1.3419, with repeated rejection under the 1.34 handle as a firm USD into the FOMC caps upside. The latest closes have slipped below the ema20 and are pressing the rising line off the 1.3296 swing low. EMA20 remains above EMA50, and ATR(14) near 25 pips points to compression rather than trend extension.
Support: 1.3355, 1.3311, 1.3296
Resistance: 1.3377, 1.3419
What it said to watch
- H4 close below the 1.3355 range low breaks the rising line and exposes the fib 38.2 at 1.3311
- Failure to hold the 1.3296 swing low ends the higher-low sequence from 1.3137
- H4 close back above the ema20 at 1.3377 keeps the range intact; a close above the 1.3419 monthly high resumes the uptrend
- UK Autumn Forecast Statement (Wed 10:00 UTC) and the Fed decision (Wed 18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read