Higher lows 1.3137 / 1.3296 / 1.3355; range under the monthly high.
The 1.3137 sweep low turned into an impulse that broke above the earlier 1.3180–1.3280 range. Higher lows at the 1.3296 swing low and the 1.3355 range floor keep the swing structure pointing up. Since the 1.3419 range high, price has gone sideways with ATR(14) compressing to ~25 pips, and it now sits just under the ema20 but above EMA50, with the EMA20 still above EMA50; today's UK PMI beat failed to lift cable against a firm USD.
Support: 1.3355, 1.3311, 1.3296
Resistance: 1.3388, 1.3419
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.3355 range floor breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the fib 38.2 at 1.3311 and the 1.3296 swing low
H4 close above the 1.3419 range high would end the consolidation and extend the impulse leg
Reclaim of the ema20 near 1.3388 would ease the recent lower-high drift inside the range
UK Autumn Forecast Statement (Wed 28 Oct 10:00 UTC) and the FOMC decision (Wed 28 Oct 18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Higher lows since 1.3137 sweep low; 4-day range 1.3355–1.3419.
Higher-low sequence from the 1.3137 sweep low (1.3137 → 1.3296 higher low → 1.3355 swing low) carried GBP/USD to a 1.3419 month high, helped by the hot UK CPI and today's PMI beat, but USD demand has capped the pair near the range top at 1.3407. Price has slipped back under EMA20 and is pressing the rising support line from the sweep low, while EMA20 remains above EMA50. RSI near 49 and ATR(14) easing to ~26 pips point to compression inside the 1.3355–1.3419 range rather than trend extension.
Support: 1.3355, 1.3330, 1.3296
Resistance: 1.3407, 1.3419
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.3355 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and puts the 1.3330 psych level and the 23.6% fib in focus
Loss of 1.3330 exposes the 1.3296 higher low and the 38.2% fib near 1.3311
H4 close above the 1.3419 month high ends the range read and resumes the uptrend
US flash PMIs and UoM inflation expectations today, the Oct 28 UK Autumn Forecast Statement and Wednesday's FOMC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since 1.3137, three-day consolidation 1.3355-1.3419.
The higher-low sequence from the 1.3137 low (1.3296, then the 1.3355 swing low) carried GBP to a 1.3419 month high, driven by hot UK CPI and a flash PMI beat that cemented November BoE hike pricing against a soft USD. Price has since stalled in a consolidation, with the 1.3400-1.3409 range top capping four attempts, and has slipped just below EMA20 onto the rising higher-low trendline while holding above EMA50. ATR(14) near 25 pips is well down from the impulse leg, a compression consistent with a pending range break.
Support: 1.3355, 1.3311, 1.3296
Resistance: 1.3409, 1.3419
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.3355 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and opens the fib 38.2 at 1.3311, then the 1.3296 higher low
H4 close above the 1.3419 month high clears the range top and extends the uptrend
Loss of the rising higher-low trendline near 1.3370 shifts the read from consolidation to a deeper pullback
US flash PMIs and UoM sentiment today could test the consolidation edges
UK budget on 28 Oct and next week's Fed decision could materially shift this read
Higher lows from 1.3137; tight range under multi-touch cap.
Higher-low structure has held since the 1.3137 swing low, with pullbacks contained at the 1.3296 swing low and the 1.3355 dip low. That dip low sits at the 23.6% retracement of the 1.3137-1.3419 leg, while the fib 38.2 level sits near 1.3311. The rally was driven by the hot UK CPI beat and a softer USD, but since then price has compressed beneath the round number at 1.3400 and the 1.3419 range high, which has capped price four times. ATR(14) near 24 pips is below the expansion seen during the impulse. Price holds above both EMAs, and EMA20 remains above EMA50.
Support: 1.33547, 1.32964, 1.3311
Resistance: 1.3400, 1.34188
What it said to watch
UK Retail Sales at 06:00 UTC (f/c -0.1% m/m) after the GfK slump; a soft print would test the 1.3355 dip low
H4 close above the 1.3419 range high breaks the multi-touch cap and ends the consolidation read
Failure to hold the 1.3355 dip low breaks the rising trendline and exposes the fib 38.2 level near 1.3311
Loss of the 1.3296 swing low would break the higher-low sequence
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM inflation expectations could shift the USD leg of the read
Higher highs and higher lows since the 1.3137 sweep low; tight consolidation below 1.3400–1.3419.
Higher highs and higher lows have held since the 1.3137 sweep low. The range break above the 1.3180–1.3285 box was driven by hot UK CPI and wage data alongside a softer USD. Price has since stalled under the 1.3400 psych cap and the 1.3419 swing high, with repeated rejection in the 1.3400–1.3419 zone. ATR(14) has eased to about 24 pips from about 30 during the rally, so the consolidation is compressing; EMA20 holds above EMA50 and price sits above both.
Support: 1.3355, 1.3311, 1.3296
Resistance: 1.3400, 1.3419
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.3419 swing high breaks the consolidation lid and opens 1.3440
Loss of the 1.3355 swing low, where the 23.6% rally fib sits, breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 1.3311 range top near the 38.2% fib
A break below the 1.3296 higher low ends the swing sequence from the 1.3137 sweep
UK Retail Sales (Fri 06:00 UTC) after the -24 GfK miss could materially shift this read
US flash PMIs (Fri 13:45 UTC) could materially shift this read