19:02 UTC
Range-bound, flat macro trend · RSI 48 · price 1.34013
1.30–1.39 range; lower highs since Jan 2026 over a flat 1.3140 base.
GBP/USD has held a 1.30–1.39 range for the full window. Since the late-January range high at 1.3869 the range has narrowed, with lower highs at the Aug high of 1.3675 and buyers stepping in at the base lows near 1.3140 in March, June and October. The two-week rebound off the October low has stalled at the ema50/fib confluence near 1.3416. That is the flat W1 EMA(50) and the 38.2% retracement of the Jan–Oct decline. This week's 1.3419 high was capped as a firmer USD offset the hot UK core CPI and PMI beat, and RSI near 48 gives no regime signal.
Support: 1.3140, 1.3010
Resistance: 1.3416, 1.3675, 1.3869
What it said to watch
- Weekly close above the ema50/fib zone at 1.3416 would put price back above the macro filter and open the 50% retracement near 1.3500, then the aug high at 1.3675
- A break of the lower-highs line from the Jan range high would end the compression read
- Weekly close below the base lows at 1.3140 would break the three-touch floor and expose the 2025 low at 1.3010
- Fed decision and UK Autumn Forecast Statement, both Wed 28 Oct, could shift the BoE–Fed relative-hawkishness read
- BoE decision on Nov 5, with a 25bp hike to 4.00% largely priced