Lower highs and lower lows from the 1.3419 week high; Monday bounce capped below the 38.2% fib.
The sequence of lower highs began with Thursday's London rejection from the 1.3419 week high. Since Monday's weekly open at 1.3370, price has slid through London into the first hour of NY to a 1.3327 week low as USD shorts were trimmed ahead of Wednesday's FOMC. The afternoon bounce stalled at 1.3359, short of the 38.2% fib of the week's drop. Price now sits just under EMA(20) near 1.3350 and above the late NY low at 1.3334, with RSI(14) in the mid-40s.
Support: 1.33335, 1.33273
Resistance: 1.3350, 1.33588, 1.33697
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3359 bounce high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 1.3370 weekly open back in view
Failure to hold 1.3334 late ny low and 1.3327 week low confirms a fresh lower-low
Repeated H1 closes below EMA(20) at 1.3350 keep the lower-high read intact
Tue Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence 14:00 UTC as pre-Fed tone-setters
UK Budget and FOMC decision on Wed Oct 28 could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows from 1.3419; NY bounce capped near 50% retrace.
H1 has printed lower highs since Thursday's 1.3419 London peak. Monday failed at the 1.3387 monday high in Asia and slid through London, with the first hour of NY reaching a 1.3327 monday low as USD shorts were trimmed ahead of Wednesday's Fed. The NY rebound met rejection at the 1.3359 ny high, near the 50% retracement of Monday's drop. Price now sits back below EMA(20) and EMA(50), under the weekly open at 1.3370, with RSI(14) in the mid-40s.
Support: 1.33273, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.33588, 1.33697, 1.33873
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3359 ny high puts the 1.3370 weekly open back in play
Close above the 1.3387 monday high breaks the lower-highs trendline sequence
Failure to hold the 1.3327 monday low confirms another lower-low and exposes the 1.3300 round number
US Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence on Tuesday could shift tone ahead of the Fed
UK Budget Wed 10:00 UTC and FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows; NY bounce capped below 38.2% fib.
GBPUSD has printed lower highs since Thursday's 1.3419 prior high. Monday's London-to-NY selloff, driven by pre-FOMC USD short-covering, cut through the weekly open at 1.3370 to a 1.3327 Monday low. The NY bounce stalled at a 1.3359 lower high, just shy of the 38.2% fib of the decline, and price is back below EMA(20) near 1.3354 with RSI(14) at 37, pressing the 1.3340 zone into the close.
Support: 1.3340, 1.3327
Resistance: 1.3359, 1.3370, 1.3419
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3359 lower high and EMA(20) would break the lower-highs sequence and expose the weekly open at 1.3370
Failure to hold the 1.3340 zone and the 1.3327 Monday low extends the lower-low sequence
Tuesday's US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and Consumer Confidence (14:00 UTC) could shift USD tone ahead of Wednesday's FOMC and UK Budget
Lower highs from 1.3419; Monday rebound capped at ema20.
GBPUSD has printed lower highs since Thursday's London-session rejection at the 1.3419 5-week high, with Friday and Monday highs both stalling beneath the falling trendline. Monday's London session drove the slide from the 1.3370 week open to the 1.3342 london low as USD shorts were trimmed into FOMC. The NY-open spike to a 1.3327 week low was a false break that recovered quickly, but the bounce stalled at ema20 (1.3355) below the 38.2% retrace of the Thu-Mon drop, and RSI(14) sits near 42.
Support: 1.3342, 1.3327
Resistance: 1.3355, 1.3370, 1.3419
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3327 week low extends the lower-low sequence through the 1.3340/1.3330 support zone
Recovery above ema20 and the 1.3370 week open would break the lower-highs trendline and neutralise the downtrend read
US durable goods Tue 12:30 UTC is the next pre-FOMC USD check
UK Budget Wed 10:00 UTC and FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; a clean Budget opens a path back toward the 5-week high
Lower highs and lows below the broken Wed–Fri range floor.
Lower highs since Thursday's London spike to 1.3419 have carried GBPUSD below the Wednesday–Friday range floor. Monday's London session broke Friday's 1.3361 low as USD shorts were trimmed into Wednesday's FOMC and UK Budget, and the first hours of NY tagged the 1.3327 monday low before price recovered above the 1.3342 london low. The bounce stalled at the 1.3359 ny high, where EMA(20) sits, short of the 38.2% retracement of the Thu–Mon drop; price remains below EMA(50) at the 1.3370 weekly open with RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 1.33418, 1.33273
Resistance: 1.33588, 1.33697, 1.33873
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3387 asia high breaks the lower-highs trendline and invalidates the downtrend read
Rejection at the 1.3359 ny high / EMA(20) keeps the lower-high sequence intact; a reclaim of the 1.3370 weekly open shifts the read back toward the old range
Failure to hold the 1.3342 london low exposes the 1.3327 monday low; a close below it extends the lower-low sequence toward 1.3300
Tue US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and Consumer Confidence (14:00 UTC) precede Wednesday's UK Budget and FOMC, which could materially shift this read
18:02 UTC
Downtrend, NY rebound stalling at EMA20 · RSI 41 · price 1.3357
Lower highs and lower lows since Thursday's 1.3419 peak; false break below 1.3342 reclaimed.
Lower highs have stacked up since Thursday's London peak at 1.3419. Monday's London session broke through Friday's 1.3361 low as USD short-covering built ahead of Wednesday's FOMC and UK Budget. A NY-open flush to the 1.3327 monday low was quickly reversed back above the 1.3342 london base. Price is now retesting the broken 1.3353–55 prior lows and the 1.3359 rebound high, sitting right on EMA(20) with RSI(14) back to ~41 and the 1.3369 ema50 overhead.
Support: 1.3342, 1.3327
Resistance: 1.3359, 1.3369, 1.3387
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3369 ema50 and the ~1.3362 38.2% retracement of the Thursday-to-Monday decline would ease the lower-high sequence; the monday high at 1.3387 and the lower-highs trendline sit just above
Failure at the 1.3359 rebound high, followed by a loss of the 1.3342 london base, reopens the 1.3327 monday low; a close below that extends the lower-low sequence
Tue 12:30 UTC US durable goods, then Wed's UK Budget (10:00 UTC) and FOMC (18:00 UTC), could materially shift this read
17:02 UTC
Downtrend since Thursday's 1.3419 week high · RSI 41 · price 1.33471
Lower highs and lower lows; NY-open flush to 1.3327 retraced back above the London low.
The decline from Thursday's 1.3419 week high has printed lower highs into Monday. Asia stalled at the 1.3387 monday high, London sold the pair from the 1.3370 weekly open to a 1.3342 london low, and the first hour of NY flushed to a 1.3327 monday low before recovering back above 1.3342. The USD is firming on short-covering ahead of Wednesday's FOMC and UK Budget. Price sits below the H1 ema20 near 1.3356, and RSI(14) at 41 has recovered from sub-30 readings without reclaiming 50.
Support: 1.3342, 1.3327, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.3356, 1.3370, 1.3387
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.3342 london low turns the NY-open recovery into a failed false break and exposes the 1.3327 monday low, then 1.3300 psych
Reclaim of the ema20 near 1.3356 and the 38.2% of the decline fib (1.3362) would be the first break in the lower-high sequence; the 50% sits at the 1.3370 weekly open
1.3387 monday high caps the bounce structure; a close above it invalidates the downtrend read
US Durable Goods Tue 12:30 UTC, then UK Budget (Wed 10:00 UTC) and FOMC (Wed 18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows; bounce off NY session low capped below EMA20.
Cable has printed lower highs since Thursday's 1.3419 London-open peak. Today it slipped below the 1.3370 weekly open and last week's 1.3355 base through London, as USD shorts were trimmed ahead of the Fed. An early-NY spike to a 1.3327 session low was rejected and price recovered to 1.3346, between the 1.3342 london low and the ema20 near 1.3357, which also lines up with the 50% retracement of Monday's decline from the 1.3387 week high; RSI(14) sits around 35.
Support: 1.33418, 1.33273
Resistance: 1.33576, 1.33697, 1.33873
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the ema20 / 1.3357 lower high would break the sequence of lower highs and bring the 1.3370 weekly open into view
Failure to hold the 1.3342 london low reopens the 1.3327 session low and the 1.3330/1.3340 support area cited in the digest; a break there confirms another lower low
Rejection again at the 50% retracement of Monday's decline keeps the lower-highs trendline from Thursday's peak intact
US durable goods Tue 12:30 UTC, then the UK Budget Wed 10:00 UTC and FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows from 1.3419; bounce off session low.
Cable has printed lower highs since Thursday's 1.3419 peak. Monday's Asia-session push to the 1.3387 Monday high faded from the London open as USD short-trimming ahead of Wednesday's Fed extended the slide below the 1.3370 week open. The first hour of NY tagged a 1.3327 session low before a rejection lifted price back to the 23.6% fib near 1.3349, with price still below EMA(20) at 1.3357 and RSI(14) in the mid-30s.
Support: 1.33273, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.3357, 1.33697, 1.33873
What it said to watch
H1 close back above EMA(20) at 1.3357 and the 1.3370 week open would challenge the lower-highs sequence
A break of the 1.3327 session low confirms a fresh lower low and exposes the 1.3300 round number
Monday high at 1.3387, near the lower-highs trendline, is the level that would need to give way to invalidate the downtrend read
US durable goods Tue 12:30 UTC, then the UK Budget (Wed 10:00 UTC) and the Fed (Wed 18:00 UTC), could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.3419; 1.3340/1.3330 support zone broken at NY open.
Lower highs have stacked since Thursday's 1.3419 one-month high, at 1.3407, 1.3388 and Monday's Asian-session 1.3387. Today's London session slipped below the 1.3370 week open and the 1.3355 prior lows. The NY open extended the drop through the 1.3340/1.3330 support zone to a 1.3327 session low as USD shorts were trimmed into Wednesday's Fed. Price sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 29, and the London low at 1.3342 now acts as the first cap overhead.
Support: 1.33273, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.33418, 1.33547, 1.33697
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.3342 london low would mark the NY break as a false break
Reclaiming the 1.3370 week open and the lower-highs trendline near 1.3383 would neutralise the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 1.3327 session low exposes the 1.3300 psych level
Oversold RSI below 30 leaves room for a bounce toward the 1.3355 prior lows without changing structure
Tue Durable Goods 12:30 UTC, then UK Budget Wed 10:00 UTC and FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Thursday peak; Monday broke the Thu–Fri lows.
Lower highs have held since Thursday's 1.3419 peak. The London session on Monday broke below Thursday's 1.3355 and Friday's 1.3361 lows and printed a 1.3342 monday low, as traders trimmed USD shorts ahead of Wednesday's FOMC. Price is now back at the 1.3355 break area, below EMA(20) near 1.3364, with RSI(14) lifting off the low 30s.
Support: 1.3342, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.3361, 1.3370, 1.3387
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.3361 friday low and EMA(20) would weaken the range break read
Acceptance below the 1.3342 monday low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3300 round number
1.3370 weekly open aligns with the 38.2% fib of the Thursday–Monday drop
H1 close above the 1.3387 monday high breaks the lower highs line
US Durable Goods Tue 12:30 UTC; UK Autumn Forecast Statement and FOMC Wed could materially shift this read
Thu–Fri range floor broken in Monday London; new low below 1.3355.
Highs have stepped lower since Thursday's 1.3419 week high: 1.3407 early Friday, then the 1.3388 lower high in Monday's Asia session. Monday's London session broke the Thursday–Friday range floor at 1.3355, now a broken low, and printed a 1.3342 London low as USD shorts were trimmed ahead of Wednesday's FOMC. Price sits below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 35. The weekly open at 1.3370 lines up with the 38.2% fib of the 1.3419–1.3342 drop.
Support: 1.3342, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.3355, 1.3370, 1.3388
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 1.3355 broken low would turn Monday's move into a false break of the range floor
Failure to hold the 1.3342 London low exposes the 1.3330 area flagged in the digest, then the 1.3300 round number
Recovery through the 1.3370 weekly open and the 1.3388 lower high would break the lower-highs trendline
US durable goods (Tue 12:30 UTC), the UK Autumn Forecast Statement (Wed 10:00 UTC) and the FOMC (Wed 18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Wed–Fri range broken lower at London open; price below the weekly open.
Since Thursday's 1.3419 week high, rallies have stalled at lower highs: 1.3407 on Friday, then the 1.3387 Asia high on Monday. From that Asia high, a 45-pip slide through the London open took out the 1.3353–1.3355 broken low that had floored the week, and the London low printed at 1.3342. Price now trades below the 1.3370 weekly open and both EMAs, with RSI(14) at the 30 oversold line as the USD steadies into Wednesday's FOMC, a step below the 1.3360 dip-buying area cited in the macro read.
Support: 1.3342, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.3354, 1.3370, 1.3387
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.3354 broken low would turn the London move into a false break of the week's range
Failure to hold the 1.3342 london low leaves the 1.3300 round number as the next reference
Close above the 1.3387 asia high breaks the lower-highs trendline from the week high
Recovery of the 1.3370 weekly open would put price back inside the Wed–Fri range and above EMA(20)
US durable goods (Tue 12:30 UTC), Consumer Confidence (Tue 14:00 UTC) and FOMC (Wed 18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Thursday's week high, fresh lower low at range floor.
GBPUSD has printed a run of lower highs since Thursday's London-session rejection at the 1.3419 week high, following Wednesday's hot UK core CPI. Friday's US PMI-driven dollar bid extended the slide, and so did Monday's London-open drop to a 1.3343 session low. Price sits below EMA(20) near 1.3370, which converges with the weekly open and the 38.2% level of the Thu-Mon fib. RSI(14) near 36 is soft but not oversold, and the 1.3336 Tuesday low is the last floor of the week's 1.3336–1.3419 range.
Support: 1.33434, 1.33361
Resistance: 1.33697, 1.33873, 1.34188
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3336 tuesday low marks a range break below the 1.3340/1.3330 support flagged in commentary
Failure to extend below the 1.3343 session low, followed by a reclaim of the weekly open and EMA(20) near 1.3370, would stall the downtrend read
Close above the 1.3387 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline from the week high and reopens 1.3419
US Durable Goods (Tue 12:30 UTC), the UK Autumn Forecast Statement (Wed 10:00 UTC) and FOMC (Wed 18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs compressing onto a 1.3353 floor inside the 1.3336–1.3419 week range.
Thursday's London-session spike to the 1.3419 week high, the monthly high, sold off the same day. Lower highs have followed at 1.3407 on Friday and 1.3387, the Monday high, set in the Asia session, and they now press onto a 1.3353–55 swing low tested three times since Thursday. The pre-London drop this morning took price back below the 1.3370 weekly open and under both EMAs with RSI(14) near 38, as USD firmed modestly ahead of the FOMC.
Support: 1.3354, 1.3336
Resistance: 1.3370, 1.3387, 1.3419
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3353 swing low breaks the three-test floor and exposes Tuesday's 1.3336 week low, near the 1.3340/1.3330 support area
Recovery above the 1.3370 weekly open and the lower-highs trendline near the 1.3387 Monday high would neutralise the descending sequence
US Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence on Tue, then the UK Autumn Forecast Statement (10:00 UTC) and FOMC (18:00 UTC) on Wed, could reset the read
1.3353–1.3419 range, lower highs pressing on a flat base.
Tuesday's NY-session impulse off the 1.3336 tuesday low, as weak US housing data weighed on USD, ran into rejection at the 1.3419 week high in Thursday's London session. Price then flushed to the 1.3353 range base, and each rebound since has stalled lower: 1.3407, then a 1.3388 lower high on Friday and again in Monday's Asia session after the Friday US PMI lifted the dollar. Price now sits around the 50% retracement of the Tuesday–Thursday rally, just under EMA(20) near 1.3376 and a few pips above the 1.3370 weekly open, with RSI(14) flat near 50 ahead of Wednesday's event risk.
Support: 1.3370, 1.3353, 1.3336
Resistance: 1.3388, 1.3419
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3388 lower high breaks the descending-highs sequence and reopens 1.3419
Failure to hold the 1.3370 weekly open and the 61.8% fib near 1.3368 exposes the 1.3353 range base
A break of the 1.3353 range base turns the read to a range break toward the 1.3336 tuesday low
US durable goods Tue 12:30 UTC, then UK Autumn Forecast Statement Wed 10:00 UTC and FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
1.3353–1.3419 range since Tuesday's breakout, lower highs from Thursday.
GBPUSD has rotated inside a 1.3353–1.3419 range since Tuesday's NY-open breakout. Highs have stepped lower from Thursday's 1.3419 month high to the 1.3407 friday high and the 1.3387 monday high, forming a lower-high trendline. In Monday's Asia session price dipped to the 1.3353 monday low, near the 78.6% fib of the Tuesday–Thursday impulse, then dip-buyers on softer US yields lifted it to the 38.2% at 1.3387; it has since faded back to the 1.3370 weekly open area, just under EMA(20), with RSI(14) near 47.
Support: 1.33697, 1.33534, 1.33361
Resistance: 1.33873, 1.34072, 1.34188
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3387 monday high breaks the lower-high trendline and puts the 1.3407 friday high back in play
Failure to hold the 1.3370 weekly open exposes the 1.3353 monday low; a break there opens the 1.3336 tuesday low
The 1.3419 month high remains the range top; acceptance above it invalidates the range read
US Durable Goods (Tue 12:30 UTC), then the UK Autumn Forecast Statement and FOMC on Wednesday, could materially shift this read
06:01 UTC
Range after Tuesday-Thursday rally, lower highs since Thursday · RSI 54 · price 1.33791
Lower highs from 1.3419 against flat lows at 1.3353-1.3361.
Tuesday's NY-session rally from 1.3336 and Wednesday's London leg on the UK core CPI beat carried price to the 1.3419 monthly high in Thursday's London session. Price was rejected there into a 65-pip NY drop and has since printed lower highs at the 1.3407 prior highs and the 1.3387 Monday high, with Friday fading on the firm US PMI. Demand held the 1.3353 double low at Monday's Asia open, and price now sits just above EMA(20) near the 50% fib of the Tue-Thu rally, below EMA(50), with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 1.33697, 1.33534
Resistance: 1.33873, 1.3407, 1.34188
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3387 monday high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 1.3407 prior highs
Failure to hold the 1.3370 weekly open exposes the 1.3353 double low; a close below it ends the range read
1.3419 monthly high is the range ceiling; acceptance above changes the structure
UK Autumn Forecast Statement Wed 10:00 UTC and FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
US Durable Goods Tue 12:30 UTC is the first USD catalyst inside the window
05:01 UTC
Range-bound, recovering off the range floor · RSI 49 · price 1.33804
1.3355–1.3419 range with lower highs since Thursday; failed break of the floor in Asia.
GBPUSD has held a 1.3355–1.3419 range since Wednesday. The hot UK core CPI lifted it to Thursday's 1.3419 monthly high, and highs have stepped lower since: 1.3407 on Friday, then 1.3387 at the Asian session high today. Friday's slide on resilient US PMIs and weak UK retail sales extended into Monday's open, where price briefly undercut the 1.3361 Friday low to a 1.3353 sweep low before dip-buying pulled it back above EMA(20) near 1.3377. Price now sits just above the 38.2% retracement of the Thu–Mon drop, still below EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 49 and the 1.3400 psych level overhead.
Support: 1.3377, 1.3361, 1.3353
Resistance: 1.3387, 1.3400, 1.3419
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3387 Asian high and the lower-highs line breaks the lower-high sequence and puts 1.3400 psych and the 1.3419 monthly high back in play
Failure back below the 1.3361 Friday low and the 1.3353 sweep low turns the false break into a range break lower
Loss of EMA(20) near 1.3377 would undercut the Monday rebound
US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and Consumer Confidence (14:00 UTC) on Tuesday set the pre-Fed USD tone
UK Autumn Forecast Statement Wed 10:00 UTC and the FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
03:01 UTC
Range-bound after week high, lower highs since Thursday · RSI 51 · price 1.33831
1.3353–1.3419 range; lower highs off the week high, swing-low floor holding.
Tuesday's NY-session impulse and Wednesday's hotter UK core CPI lifted the pair to a 1.3419 week high in Thursday's London session. Since then supply has capped successive lower highs at 1.3407 and 1.3388, while the 1.3353–1.3361 swing low and Friday low zone held on Thursday and Friday, and again at Monday's Asia open. The Monday rebound has reclaimed EMA(20) near 1.3378 and sits on a flat EMA(50) and the 38.2% fib of the week's impulse around 1.3383, with RSI(14) neutral near 51 and the 61.8% level lining up with the Friday low.
Support: 1.3378, 1.3361, 1.3353
Resistance: 1.3388, 1.3407, 1.3419
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3388 lower highs cluster breaks the sequence from the week high and exposes the 1.3407 prior high
Acceptance above the 1.3419 week high (monthly high) would mark a range break higher
Failure to hold the 1.3361 friday low and 1.3353 swing low, below the 61.8% fib, confirms a lower-low and breaks the range floor
Losing EMA(20) at 1.3378 returns price to the lower half of the range
US ADP and Durable Goods Tue 12:15–12:30 UTC, UK Autumn Forecast Statement Wed 10:00 UTC and the FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read