Every read JAFX AI made on the GBP/USD daily chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
21:03 UTC
August downtrend paused, rebound stalling at 50% retrace · RSI 58 · price 1.33774
Lower highs from the Aug 21 peak, 1.318–1.331 base broken higher Oct 15, rebound capped near 1.3419.
From the 1.3675 Aug 21 peak, GBPUSD printed lower highs and lower lows into a 1.318–1.331 base, and the Oct 14 dip to the 1.3137 oct low was a false break. The Oct 15 range break carried price to the 1.3419 oct high, around the 50% retrace of the Aug–Oct decline, where four sessions have stalled. Price holds above both EMAs, with EMA(50) flattening near 1.3350 just above the 38.2% fib at 1.3343, as GBP turns heavy into Wednesday's Fed and UK Budget with USD shorts being trimmed.
Support: 1.3343, 1.3290, 1.3137
Resistance: 1.3419, 1.3470, 1.3568
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 1.3419 oct high clears the 50% retrace and opens the 61.8% fib near 1.3470
- Break below the 38.2% fib at 1.3343 (the 1.3340/1.3330 support) puts the 1.3290 range top back in play
- Daily close back inside the base below the range top would mark the October range break as failed
- Recovery through the 1.3568 sep high would break the lower-high sequence from August
- UK Budget (Wed 10:00 UTC) and FOMC decision (Wed 18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
11:57 UTC
Two-month downtrend stalling, rebound from base · RSI 58 · price 1.33774
Double bottom at 1.3180/1.3137, neckline broken, stalling below 50% retrace.
The slide from the 1.3675 aug high produced lower highs through September and a 1.3180–1.3311 range into mid-October. That range resolved as a double bottom after the 14 Oct swing low at 1.3137. Price cleared the range top and the falling trendline on 20 Oct, helped by the UK core CPI beat and strong flash PMIs, but stalled at the 1.3419 oct high between the 38.2% and 50% retrace as the USD firmed into the Fed. Daily closes are holding just above a still-declining ema50 near 1.3355, so the August–October downtrend is being tested rather than reversed.
Support: 1.3355, 1.3311, 1.3137
Resistance: 1.3419, 1.3470, 1.3675
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 1.3419 oct high opens the 1.3470 fib 61.8 zone, which aligns with the double-bottom measured move
- Failure to hold the ema50 near 1.3355 and then the 1.3311 range top would turn the breakout into a false break
- A close back below the 1.3137 swing low would resume the lower-low sequence from the aug high
- UK Autumn Forecast Statement and FOMC decision on Wed 28 Oct could materially shift this read, with the BoE meeting in early November