21:01 UTC
Downtrend, pausing near lows · RSI 42 · price 1.32443
Lower highs since 1.3406, basing above 1.3204.
The pair broke down from the 1.3470-1.3570 multi-day range and has printed lower highs from the 1.3400-1.3406 area into a 1.3204 swing low. Fed-BoE divergence and firm US yields drove the slide. Price is now in a tight consolidation between 1.3204 and the 1.3263 swing high, capped by the descending trendline. ATR(14) has compressed to about 27 pips from the expansion bars earlier in the sell-off, and price remains below both EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 1.3204, 1.3140
Resistance: 1.3263, 1.3302, 1.3400
What it said to watch
- H4 close above the 1.3263 swing high and the descending trendline opens the fib 50% retracement near 1.3302
- Failure to hold the 1.3204 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the june low at 1.3140
- Recovery through the 1.3400 lower highs would negate the downtrend read
- UK Q2 GDP and US ADP/PCE on Wed 30 Sep could materially shift this read; crowded GBP shorts raise squeeze risk