Lower highs and lower lows since the mid-month range break.
The two-week 1.3480-1.3568 range gave way mid-month, and price has since printed lower highs and lower lows. A second leg from the 1.3387 lower high ran to a 1.3204 swing low as a hiking Fed and rising US yields outweighed BoE hawkishness. The current bounce is pressing into the ema20 near 1.3264, just under the fib 38.2% retracement at 1.3281. ATR(14) near 29 pips is well off the breakdown-bar expansion, which points to a pause rather than acceleration.
Support: 1.3204, 1.3140
Resistance: 1.3264, 1.3281, 1.3387
What it said to watch
H4 close above the fib 38.2% at 1.3281 and the lower-highs trendline near 1.3325 would challenge the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 1.3204 swing low confirms a fresh lower low and exposes the 1.3140 june low
A move back through 1.3387, the last lower high, would break the lower-high sequence
UK Q2 GDP (Sep 30, 06:00 UTC) plus US ADP, GDP and spending the same day could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since 1.3568; tight base 1.3204–1.3260.
Cable has printed lower highs and lower lows since the 1.3568 top. The 1.3372 break opened a stair-step decline along a lower-high trendline, driven by Fed-BoE policy divergence after the Fed hike and the BoE hold. Price is now basing between the 1.3204 swing low and the 1.3260 base top, testing EMA20 from below. ATR(14) has compressed to about 28 pips from the expansion earlier in the leg.
Support: 1.3204, 1.3140
Resistance: 1.3260, 1.3296, 1.3336
What it said to watch
An H4 close above the 1.3260 base top opens the 50% fib at 1.3296, the first test of the lower-high sequence
The trendline and the old range base near 1.3330–1.3336 cap any deeper retracement; reclaiming that area would break the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 1.3204 swing low and 1.3200 psych extends lower lows toward the 1.3140 june low
US UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC today and UK Q2 GDP on Wed Sep 30 could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the break of the 1.3470-1.3568 range; tight base above 1.3204.
GBPUSD broke out of its 1.3470-1.3568 range mid-window and has printed lower highs at 1.3406 and the 1.3387 lower high since. The US-UK flash PMI gap on Wednesday (US services 58.7 vs UK 51.7) drove the leg through the 1.3335 prior lows to the 1.3204 swing low. Price has since held a narrow base between that swing low and the 1.3256 swing high, with ATR(14) near 27 pips, well below the breakdown sessions, and price below both EMAs with EMA20 under EMA50.
Support: 1.3204, 1.3200, 1.3140
Resistance: 1.3256, 1.3335, 1.3387
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.3204 swing low and the 1.3200 round number extends the lower-low sequence toward 1.3140 next support
Close above the 1.3256 swing high and the fib 38.2% near 1.3274 would signal the base is turning into a deeper retracement toward the 1.3335 prior lows
Only a move back above the 1.3387 lower high breaks the lower-high structure
US Durable Goods and UoM inflation expectations today could shift the dollar leg of this read
UK Q2 GDP final on Sep 30 and BoE's Ramsden/Taylor early next week could materially shift this read
05:01 UTC
Downtrend, oversold and stalling · RSI 25 · price 1.32103
Lower highs and lower lows since 1.3568; tight base above 1.3200.
Lower-high, lower-low sequence has held since the 1.3568 top. The pair broke the 1.3336-1.3400 shelf after Wednesday's strong US flash PMIs, then dropped to a swing low at 1.3204 just above the 1.3200 round number. The last dozen bars have compressed into a 1.3204-1.3256 range top band, with RSI oversold near 24 and ATR(14) easing to about 26 pips, both below the EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 1.3204, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3256, 1.3321, 1.3400
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.3204 swing low and 1.3200 round number extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery above the 1.3256 range top puts the 38.2% fib near 1.3279 and the 1.3321 broken shelf in play
Only a move through the 1.3400 lower high and the descending trendline would challenge the downtrend read
US UoM inflation expectations and Durables today, then UK Q2 GDP on Sep 30, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.3568 cap; two shelves broken.
Price has made lower highs and lower lows since the mid-month break of the 1.3466-1.3568 range. The 1.3335-1.3400 shelf then gave way after Wednesday's PMI divergence (US services 58.7 vs UK 51.7), which sent price to the 1.3204 swing low just above the 1.3200 psych level. The last several bars are compressing between 1.3204 and the 1.3256 lower high, with RSI oversold near 26, EMA20 below EMA50 and ATR steady around 27 pips.
Support: 1.3204, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3256, 1.3335, 1.3400
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.3256 lower high would be the first break in the lower-high sequence; the 50% retrace of the 1.3400-1.3204 swing sits near 1.3302
A rebound into the 1.3335 range floor would retest the breakdown shelf, with the lower-high trendline from 1.3497 converging in the same area
Sustained trade below 1.3200 psych extends the downtrend to fresh lows since late June
A move back above the 1.3400 swing high would invalidate the lower-high structure
US durables (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) today could materially shift this read
BoE's Ramsden (Mon) and UK Q2 GDP (Sep 30) are the next GBP-specific risks