The Fed presser at 18:30 UTC drove a breakout from the 1.3272–1.3321 day range to a 1.3338 fed high as the USD sold the fact. Price has since held a 1.3315–1.3338 range. The Asia session is grinding off a 1.3319 asian low back to 1.3330, just under the late ny high at 1.3332.
Support: 1.3319, 1.3315
Resistance: 1.3332, 1.3338
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3338 fed high breaks the post-Fed range
Loss of the 1.3315 post-fed low exposes the 38.2% Fed rally retracement near 1.3313 and 1.3300
A break of the 1.3319 asian low undoes the higher-low sequence
US core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC (~13h) could materially shift this read
23:32 UTC
Post-Fed uptrend, now stalling · RSI 52 · price 1.33267
Tight Asian range below the Fed spike high.
The dovish-read Fed hold broke GBPUSD out of yesterday's 1.3272–1.3304 range, with a spike to the fed high at 1.3338. The post-fed low at 1.3315 has held since. Early Asia session is compressing in a 9-pip band (asia low 1.3319 to asia high 1.3328), shallow inside the 23.6% fib of the London-low-to-Fed-spike leg. RSI is neutral near 52.
Support: 1.3319, 1.3315, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.3328, 1.3338
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.3328 asia high puts the 1.3338 fed high back in play
Loss of the 1.3315 post-fed low points to a deeper retrace toward the 1.3300 round number
A close back below 1.3300 would undo the post-Fed breakout
US core PCE and GDP in ~13h (core f/c 3.1% y/y) could materially shift this read
23:17 UTC
Post-FOMC breakout, now compressing · RSI 54 · price 1.3323
Tight range under FOMC spike high, holding above breakout.
London twice held the 1.3272 day low before NY recovered toward 1.3320. The split-vote Fed hold and Warsh presser then drove a breakout to the 1.3338 FOMC high as USD sold the fact. Since rollover, price has compressed into a 10-pip band between the 1.3318 range low and 1.3328 range high into the Asia session, sitting on the 23.6% fib of the day low–fomc high leg, with RSI(14) neutral at 54 and ATR(14) about 7.5 pips.
Support: 1.3318, 1.3300, 1.3272
Resistance: 1.3328, 1.3338
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3318 range low exposes the 1.3300 round number, near the 38.2% fib
Close above the 1.3328 range high puts the 1.3338 fomc high back in play; a break there opens 1.3340–1.3365
Failure to hold 1.3300 unwinds the FOMC breakout and reopens the 1.3272 day low
US core PCE and Q3 GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~13h) could materially shift this read
London tested the 1.3272 london low, near the two-week low, before the USD sold off on Warsh's hawkish-hold presser. That drove a 50-pip spike to the 1.3338 fomc high, clearing the 1.3321 pre-FOMC high. Price has since compressed into the early Asia session between the 1.3315 fomc low and the 1.3327 session high, holding above the 38.2% fib at 1.3313 with RSI flat near 51.
Support: 1.33147, 1.3300, 1.32723
Resistance: 1.33275, 1.33384
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3315 fomc low and 38.2% fib exposes the 1.3300 round number
Clearance of the 1.3327 session high puts the 1.3338 fomc high back in play
Loss of 1.3300 reopens the 1.3272 london low and negates the post-FOMC breakout
US core PCE and Q3 GDP Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Fed-driven breakout above 1.3321, now retesting the pre-Fed high.
No narrative produced.
Support: 1.33147, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.33209, 1.33372, 1.33384
22:32 UTC
Post-Fed bounce, now stalling in a tight range · RSI 43 · price 1.33189
Higher lows from the London double bottom; post-Fed range 1.3315–1.3338.
Warsh's presser was read as less hawkish than feared. It lifted GBPUSD to a 1.3338 Fed high, extending the higher-low chain off the London-session double bottom at the 1.3272 London low. Since then price has compressed between the 1.3315 post-Fed low and the 1.3332 range top. Into early Asia it is drifting at the range floor, back below EMA20 with RSI(14) near 43, just above the 38.2% fib at 1.3313.
Support: 1.33147, 1.3300, 1.32723
Resistance: 1.3332, 1.33384
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3315 post-Fed low and the 38.2% fib exposes the 1.3300 round number and rising support near 1.3304
Close above the 1.3332 range top puts the 1.3338 Fed high back in play
Loss of 1.3300 and rising support would reopen the 1.3272 London low
US core PCE / Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC Thu could materially shift this read
22:17 UTC
Post-Fed rebound, now flat in range · RSI 52 · price 1.33207
Post-Fed range 1.3315–1.3338 after V-recovery from London low.
GBP/USD climbed from a 1.3272 early-London low to a 1.3338 post-Fed high as USD softened on Warsh's presser after the hold. Rejection near 1.3338 three times since, with the post-Fed low at 1.3315 holding. Early-Asia trade is thin below the 1.3327 overnight high, with price just under the 23.6% fib and RSI(14) neutral at 52.
Support: 1.3315, 1.3300, 1.3288
Resistance: 1.3327, 1.3338
What it said to watch
Break below the 1.3315 post-Fed low exposes the 1.3300 round number, then the 1.3288 Fed spike low
Close above the 1.3327 overnight high, then the 1.3338 post-Fed high, breaks the post-Fed range topside
US core PCE and Q3 GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~14h) could materially shift this read
The USD softened after Warsh's presser, and the spike broke the 1.3321 prior high from the NY session, topping at the 1.3338 fed high. Post-Fed trade has formed lower highs near 1.3332 while holding the 1.3315 post-fed low, close to the 38.2% fib of the London-low rally. Thin Asia-open trade is now retesting the 1.3321 prior high, with RSI(14) around 58.
Support: 1.3321, 1.3315, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.3332, 1.33384
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3315 post-fed low exposes the 1.3300 round number
Break above the lower highs line near 1.3332 reopens the 1.3338 fed high
US core PCE and Q3 GDP on Thu 12:30 UTC (~15h) could materially shift this read
Tight post-Fed range 1.3315–1.3338 above the day's rally base.
Warsh's less-hawkish presser after the Fed hold drove a 50-pip spike to the 1.3338 fed high, extending the rally off the 1.3272 London-open day low. Since then price has held a 1.3315–1.3338 range into thin post-NY hours, sitting near the 23.6% fib of the day's rally with RSI(14) neutral near 57.
Support: 1.3315, 1.3300, 1.3272
Resistance: 1.3338
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.3338 fed high breaks the post-Fed range
Loss of the 1.3315 post-fed low exposes the 1.3300 psych level and 38.2% fib near 1.3313
Break back below 1.3272 day low would undo the post-Fed recovery
US core PCE and Q3 GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~15h) could materially shift this read
1.3315–1.3338 post-Fed range above pre-Fed high; London double bottom at 1.3272 held.
The day low at 1.3272 held twice in London, forming a double bottom. After the 10–2 Fed hold, Warsh's 'tightening is working' presser triggered a 50-pip spike to the 1.3338 post-Fed high, clearing the 1.3321 pre-Fed high. Since then price has consolidated between the 1.3315 post-Fed low and the 1.3332 late NY cap into rollover. The post-Fed low sits on the 38.2% fib, RSI(14) is neutral near 57 and price is hugging EMA20.
Support: 1.3315, 1.3300, 1.3272
Resistance: 1.3332, 1.3338
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.3315 post-Fed low (38.2% fib) puts the 1.3300 round number back in play
Break of the 1.3332 late NY cap and the 1.3338 post-Fed high extends the Fed-driven breakout
Loss of 1.3300 reopens the 1.3272 day low, the double-bottom base
Thin Asia session liquidity after rollover; Thu 12:30 UTC core PCE/Q3 GDP is the next scheduled shift risk
21:02 UTC
Recovering intraday, post-Fed range · RSI 57 · price 1.33249
Double bottom at 1.3272 day low, post-Fed range 1.3315–1.3338.
The 18:30 UTC Fed presser bar dipped to 1.3288, then ran to a 1.3338 fed high as USD eased on Warsh's 'tightening is working' line. That cleared the 1.3321 pre-Fed high and extended the rebound off the 1.3272 day low double bottom. Late NY is now ranging between the 1.3315 post-fed low and 1.3338, holding above the 38.2% fib of the day low to Fed high move, with RSI(14) at 57.
Support: 1.3315, 1.3300, 1.3272
Resistance: 1.3338
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3338 fed high breaks the post-Fed range
Failure to hold the 1.3315 post-fed low (38.2% fib) exposes the 1.3300 round number
Loss of 1.3300 reopens the 1.3272 day low and the double bottom base
US Core PCE and Q3 GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~15.5h) could materially shift this read; Asia session liquidity typically thin before then
Post-FOMC breakout, tight 1.3315–1.3338 band with higher lows.
GBPUSD held the London-open low at 1.3272 and built rising lows through NY. The FOMC hold triggered a 50-pip spike that cleared the Asian range high and printed the fed high at 1.3338. Late NY trade is coiling below that high, with higher lows near 1.3323 and the fed low at 1.3315 sitting on the 38.2% day-range fib.
Support: 1.3323, 1.3315, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.3338
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3338 fed high extends the post-FOMC leg
Break of the 1.3315 fed low and the 38.2% fib puts the 1.3300 round number back in play
Loss of the higher lows at 1.3323 turns the band into a two-way range
US core PCE and GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~16h) could materially shift this read
Higher lows from 1.3272 day low; tight 1.3315–1.3338 band late NY.
The Fed's 10–2 hold produced an 18:30 UTC whipsaw: price dipped to 1.3288, then spiked to the fomc high at 1.3338. Since then it has compressed between the post-fed low at 1.3315 and 1.3337 into the NY close. The leg extends a chain of rising lows off the London double bottom at the 1.3272 day low, with price above the 1.3300 round number and both EMAs.
Support: 1.3315, 1.3300, 1.3272
Resistance: 1.3338
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3315 post-fed low returns price to the pre-decision range
Failure to hold the 1.3300 round number breaks the rising lows sequence
M15 close above the 1.3338 fomc high extends the breakout leg
US core PCE and GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~16h) could materially shift this read; thin Asia liquidity until then
Higher lows from London low; tight band under FOMC spike high.
A London double bottom at 1.3272–1.3274 gave way to a NY rally through the 1.3321 session high. The Fed's 10–2 hold, with two dissents for a hike, then whipsawed price from 1.3288 to the 1.3338 fomc high. Late NY is holding a 1.3315–1.3337 band, with the fomc low sitting just above the 38.2% fib at 1.3313.
Support: 1.33147, 1.3300, 1.32723
Resistance: 1.33384, 1.3350
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3315 fomc low exposes the 1.3300 round number and the 50% fib near 1.3305
Close above the 1.3338 fomc high opens 1.3350 psych
Break of the 1.3272 london low negates the double bottom
Warsh presser in progress; Thu 12:30 UTC GDP and core PCE could materially shift this read
20:02 UTC
Uptrend, higher lows since London · RSI 61 · price 1.3333
Post-Fed breakout, consolidating below the spike high.
The Fed's 10–2 hold sparked a 50-pip spike to 1.3338 into the presser. That broke the 1.3321 prior high, and the post-fed low at 1.3315 held near the 38.2% fib of the day rally from the 1.3272 London-open low. Late in NY, price is pressing the spike high again, with RSI(14) near 61 and higher lows intact along the rising trendline.
Support: 1.3321, 1.3315, 1.3298
Resistance: 1.3338, 1.3350
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3338 spike high opens the 1.3350 round number
Loss of the 1.3321 prior high and 1.3315 post-fed low turns the breakout into a range back toward the 1.3298 pre-fed base
Break of the rising trendline from the London low invalidates the higher-low read
Warsh presser tone now and Thu 12:30 UTC GDP/core PCE could materially shift this read
19:47 UTC
Post-Fed breakout, consolidating late NY · RSI 55 · price 1.33228
London double bottom 1.3272/1.3274 into higher lows; presser spike now coiling under lower highs.
The FOMC hold and presser whipsawed GBPUSD from a 1.3288 presser low to a 1.3338 presser high, carrying the rally off the London double bottom at 1.3272/1.3274 through the 1.3321 pre-Fed high. Late NY trade is coiling between the 1.3315 post-fed low, near the 38.2% fib of the day's move, and a cap of lower highs at 1.3332. RSI(14) is near 55, ATR around 12 pips.
Support: 1.3315, 1.3300, 1.3288
Resistance: 1.3332, 1.3338
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3338 presser high extends the post-Fed breakout
Loss of the 1.3315 post-fed low and 38.2% fib exposes the 1.3300 round number
Break below the 1.3288 presser low unwinds the Fed-day breakout
Remaining Warsh presser headlines and Thursday's US GDP/core PCE could materially shift this read
19:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend from the London low, post-FOMC volatility · RSI 58 · price 1.33261
The NY session rally came off a London double bottom at 1.3272/1.3274, the two-week low. The Fed hold with two hawkish dissents and the press conference then produced a 50-pip whipsaw from the 1.3288 spike low to a fomc high at 1.3338. Price is holding near 1.3326, above the 1.3315 post-fed low (38.2% fib) and the 1.3300 round number, with RSI(14) near 58 and ATR(14) expanded to about 11 pips.
Support: 1.33147, 1.3300, 1.32883
Resistance: 1.33384
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.3315 post-fed low puts the 1.3300 round number and the 1.3288 spike low back in play
A close above the 1.3338 fomc high extends the NY breakout leg
A break of the rising line from the 1.3274 low would end the intraday higher-low sequence
Warsh presser in progress, and Thu 12:30 UTC GDP/core PCE, could materially shift this read
19:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the 1.3272 low, volatile post-FOMC · RSI 61 · price 1.3327
Higher lows since London open; Fed spike to 1.3338 now consolidating above 1.3315.
London open swept to a two-week low at 1.3272 and a 1.3274 retest held, forming a double bottom that NY extended to 1.3321 before the Fed's 10–2 hold. The Warsh presser produced a 50-pip two-way bar from the 1.3288 spike low to the 1.3338 fed high, and price is now holding above the post-fed low at 1.3315, near the 38.2% fib, late in the NY session.
Support: 1.33147, 1.3300, 1.32883
Resistance: 1.33384
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3338 fed high extends the post-FOMC breakout
Loss of the 1.3315 post-fed low and 38.2% fib exposes the 1.3300 round number
A break below the 1.3288 spike low unwinds the Fed-day breakout
Warsh presser in progress; any December hike guidance can whipsaw this read
US GDP and core PCE Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows off the London low; presser spike rejected.
The Fed hold (10–2, two hike dissents) and the Warsh presser produced a 50-pip bar in the NY session that swept from the 1.3288 spike low to a 1.3338 presser high. The next bar gave back most of the move to 1.3317, just below the 1.3321 pre-fed high. The double bottom at the 1.3272 London low and the higher-lows chain remain intact, and RSI(14) at 58 is neutral.
Support: 1.3300, 1.32883, 1.32723
Resistance: 1.33209, 1.33384
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.3338 presser high negates the rejection read
Failure to hold 1.3300 psych and the 1.3288 spike low breaks the higher-lows trendline
Loss of the 1.3272 London low reopens the 1.3250–1.3275 zone
Warsh presser still in progress; Thu US GDP and core PCE are the next scheduled drivers
18:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend off two-week low, spiked on Fed presser · RSI 67 · price 1.33277
Higher lows since London double bottom; presser bar broke above pre-Fed high.
Late NY session: Warsh's presser drove a 50-pip bar from 1.3288 to the 1.3338 fomc high. That move cleared the 1.3321 pre-fed high, consistent with the hawkish USD premium unwinding, and price is now easing to 1.3328 with RSI(14) near 67. London's double bottom at the 1.3272 2-week low remains the day's base.
Support: 1.3321, 1.3300, 1.3272
Resistance: 1.3338
What it said to watch
Holding above the 1.3321 pre-fed high keeps the breakout intact; a close back below it marks a false break
A close above the 1.3338 fomc high, near the 1.3340 level cited as broken support, extends the presser leg
Slip under the 38.2% day-low fib at 1.3313 and the 1.3300 psych level returns price to the pre-Fed range
ATR(14) is inflated by the presser bar; Thursday 12:30 UTC core PCE could materially shift this read
London low 1.3272 to NY high 1.3321, now mid-retrace.
London set a two-week low at 1.3272, retested near 1.3274 in late London, and NY lifted the pair to a 1.3321 high before rejection. The as-expected Fed hold whipsawed price between the fomc high at 1.3312 and the fomc low at 1.3293, and it now sits near the 38.2% retrace around 1.3302 with RSI(14) neutral near 48.
Support: 1.3293, 1.3286, 1.3272
Resistance: 1.3312, 1.3321
What it said to watch
Warsh press conference is underway now and could materially shift this read
M15 close below the fomc low at 1.3293 exposes the 14:00 UTC swing low at 1.3286 and the 61.8% retrace near 1.3291
Failure to hold 1.3286 brings the london low at 1.3272 double bottom back into play
M15 close above the fomc high at 1.3312 reopens the ny high at 1.3321
US core PCE Thu 12:30 UTC is the next scheduled volatility risk
18:17 UTC
Intraday recovery stalling, rolling over into FOMC · RSI 48 · price 1.32994
Higher-low chain off 1.3272 broken; price testing 1.3298 support.
Buyers defended the 1.3272 day low twice in London. A double bottom then carried price to a 1.3321 session high during NY hours. The FOMC hold bar spiked to 1.3312 and was rejected, and price is now back on the 1.3298 fomc low, below the broken rising support and between the 38.2% and 50% retracements of the move.
Support: 1.3298, 1.3286, 1.3272
Resistance: 1.3312, 1.3321
What it said to watch
Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.3298 fomc low exposes the 1.3286 swing low and 61.8% fib near 1.3291
Reclaim of the 1.3312 fomc high reopens the 1.3321 session high
Loss of 1.3286 swing low puts the 1.3272 day low and double bottom back in play
18:02 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows from London low · RSI 57 · price 1.3303
Double bottom at 1.3272/1.3274, HL chain into NY, FOMC bar in play.
London broke below the Asian range to a 1.3272 london low, and the 11:00 UTC retest at 1.3274 held as a double bottom. NY rallied on higher lows to a 1.3321 ny high. The pre-FOMC pullback low at 1.3298 held the 50% fib and the rising trendline. The decision bar is swinging 1.3300–1.3312, still capped under the asia high, with price hugging EMA20.
Support: 1.3298, 1.3286, 1.3272
Resistance: 1.3312, 1.3321
What it said to watch
Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.3298 pullback low breaks the higher-low trendline and 50% fib, exposing the 1.3286 higher low
Loss of 1.3286 puts the 1.3272 london low and the double bottom back in focus
Close above the 1.3312 asia high and the 1.3321 ny high extends the NY rally structure
17:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend off London low, pulling back · RSI 61 · price 1.33082
Higher-low chain since London double bottom; rejection at day high.
The London open swept to a two-week low at 1.3272, and the 1.3274 retest held to form a double bottom. NY then built a higher-low chain to a day high at 1.3321, where rejection late in the session pulled price back to 1.3308. That is just above the 38.2% fib of the London-NY rally (~1.3302) and the 1.3295 higher low, with USD firm 30 minutes ahead of FOMC.
Support: 1.3295, 1.3272
Resistance: 1.3321, 1.3340
What it said to watch
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.3295 higher low and rising support breaks the NY higher-low chain
Close back above the 1.3321 day high reopens 1.3340 broken support
Loss of the 1.3272 london low negates the double bottom
17:17 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since London · RSI 65 · price 1.33127
Double bottom at London low, breakout above Asian high, stalling at session high.
The Asian slide ended at a London-open double bottom at 1.3272/1.3274, the two-week low area. NY built a higher-low chain off it, broke the 1.3312 Asian high and tagged a 1.3321 session high before an upper-wick rejection. Price is now sitting back on the Asian high about 45 minutes before FOMC, with RSI(14) near 65 and ATR around 7 pips.
Support: 1.3312, 1.3295, 1.3272
Resistance: 1.3321, 1.3340
What it said to watch
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and Warsh at 18:30 UTC can materially shift this read and expand ATR well beyond 7 pips
An M15 close back below the 1.3312 Asian high turns the breakout into a false break and exposes the 1.3295 higher low
A close above the 1.3321 session high opens 1.3340 broken support
Loss of the 1.3295 higher low breaks the higher-low line and puts the 1.3272 London low back in play
Higher-low chain off a 1.3272/1.3274 double bottom; Asian range high broken.
Early London swept the Asian low to a 1.3272 day low near the two-week low, and a second test at 1.3274 in late London formed a double bottom. NY built a higher-low chain through the 1.3312 Asian high to a 1.3321 session high, which also matches yesterday's prior high. The latest bar pulled back from that level, and RSI(14) is near 67 as USD pauses into FOMC.
Support: 1.33125, 1.32954, 1.32723
Resistance: 1.33209, 1.3340
What it said to watch
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and Warsh at 18:30 UTC, about an hour out, could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.3321 session high opens 1.3340, the broken supp level flagged in the macro digest
Slip back below the 1.3312 Asian high puts price back inside the Asian range
Break of the 1.3295 swing low ends the higher lows sequence; the 1.3272 day low is the next reference
16:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the lows, momentum firm · RSI 69 · price 1.33126
Double low at 1.3272/1.3274, then higher highs and higher lows through NY.
Sellers failed twice at the double low (1.3272 at London open, 1.3274 late London). The NY session then built a higher-low chain at 1.3286 and 1.3295, reclaiming 1.3300 and pressing the asian high at 1.3313 with RSI(14) near 69. The pair is coiling into the FOMC decision with ATR near 7 pips, after USD strength drove the slide to two-week lows.
Support: 1.3295, 1.3286, 1.3272
Resistance: 1.3313, 1.3320
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3320 prior high clears the overnight range top
Rejection at the 1.3313 asian high followed by a break of the 1.3295 higher low and rising support exposes the 1.3286 ny swing low
Loss of the 1.3272 double low invalidates the double bottom read
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
16:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend from London low, pressing session highs · RSI 68 · price 1.33119
Higher lows since 1.3272 double bottom, testing Asian high.
The 1.3275 two-week-low test held as a double bottom at 1.3272/1.3274 during London. NY has since printed higher lows at the 1.3286 ny low and the 1.3295 swing low, and price is back above 1.3300 and pressing the 1.3312 asian high in the late NY session ahead of FOMC; RSI(14) near 68 is firm but not stretched.
Support: 1.32954, 1.3286, 1.32723
Resistance: 1.33125, 1.33196
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3312 asian high exposes the 1.3320 prior high from yesterday's NY session
Break of the 1.3295 swing low and the ny higher lows trendline would end the intraday higher-low chain
Failure to hold the 1.3286 ny low reopens the 1.3272 london low
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and Warsh's press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
16:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher lows since London · RSI 67 · price 1.33083
Double bottom at 1.3272/74, HH/HL chain through NY, 1.3305 cleared.
Asia slid into a London double bottom at 1.3272/1.3274, near the two-week low, and NY has built higher lows at the 1.3286 ny low and the 1.3295 swing low. Price has pushed through the 1.3305 broken high to 1.3308 after London close, below the 1.3313 asian high, with RSI(14) near 67 and USD steady into FOMC.
Support: 1.33052, 1.32954, 1.3286
Resistance: 1.33125, 1.33196
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.3295 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising support
Acceptance above the 1.3313 asian high opens the 1.3320 prior-day hi
Slip back under the 1.3305 broken high returns price to the 50–61.8% zone of the london-ny leg (1.3290–1.3286)
FOMC 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
16:02 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since London · RSI 59 · price 1.33001
Double bottom 1.3272/1.3274, HH/HL chain capped at 1.3305 session high.
London opened with a break below the Asian range to a 1.3272 session low near the two-week low. A double bottom with 1.3274 then built a rising-trendline higher-low chain back to the 1.3300 handle as the neutral Budget cleared. After London close, price is pinned under the 1.3305 session high, with RSI(14) near 59 and ATR around 7 pips.
Support: 1.32954, 1.3286, 1.32723
Resistance: 1.33052, 1.33125, 1.33196
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3305 session high opens the 1.3312 asian high, then the 1.3320 prior high
Loss of the 1.3295 swing low and the rising trendline (~1.3292) breaks the higher-low chain, with the 1.3286 higher low next
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read. A hawkish December signal would put the 1.3272 session low back in focus
15:46 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since London open · RSI 62 · price 1.33019
Double bottom at 1.3272/1.3274, HH/HL chain back above 1.3300.
Cable printed a session low at 1.3272 at the London open, double-bottomed at 1.3274 late morning, then built higher lows (1.3286 during NY hours) to reclaim the 1.3300 psych handle after the broadly neutral UK Budget. The session high at 1.3305 is capping into the FOMC, with RSI(14) near 62 and ATR around 6.6 pips.
Support: 1.3300, 1.3286, 1.3272
Resistance: 1.3305, 1.3313, 1.3320
What it said to watch
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
An M15 close back below the 1.3286 higher low breaks the HL chain and the higher lows trendline
A move above the 1.3305 session high exposes the 1.3313 Asia high and the 1.3320 prior high
Failure to hold the 1.3300 psych handle reopens the 1.3272 session low
15:32 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since London · RSI 59 · price 1.33016
Double bottom at 1.3272/74, higher-low chain into NY, testing 1.3300 handle.
Cable printed a double bottom at 1.3272/1.3274 during London, the two-week low flagged as traders de-risked into the Budget and FOMC. NY has since built a higher-low chain that is now pressing the 1.3300 handle just under the 1.3305 session high, still below the Asia high at 1.3313. RSI(14) sits near 59 with no extreme.
Support: 1.3286, 1.3273
Resistance: 1.3305, 1.3313, 1.3320
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3286 ny low breaks the higher-low trendline and the recovery read
Acceptance above the 1.3305 session high opens the asia high at 1.3313, then the prior high at 1.3320
A return through the 1.3273 double btm would mark a fresh two-week low
FOMC 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
15:17 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since London open · RSI 62 · price 1.33025
Double bottom at 1.3272–1.3274, neckline 1.3296 broken, higher-low chain into NY.
Cable slid through Asia from the 1.3312 Asian high into a 1.3272 day low at London open, near the two-week low after the neutral Budget. The 11:00 UTC retest held at 1.3274 and NY built higher lows off it. Price has reclaimed the 1.3300 round number and printed a 1.3305 session high, with RSI(14) at 62 and not stretched.
Support: 1.3300, 1.3286, 1.32723
Resistance: 1.33047, 1.33125, 1.33212
What it said to watch
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh press conference 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Holding the 1.3300 round number keeps the double bottom breakout intact; a slip back under the 1.3296 neckline reads as a false break
A break of the 1.3286 higher low breaks the trendline and the higher-low chain, exposing the 1.3272 day low
An M15 close above the 1.3305 session high opens the 1.3312 Asian high, then the 1.3321 prior NY high
15:02 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since London · RSI 62 · price 1.33017
Double bottom at 1.3272/1.3274, neckline 1.3296 reclaimed in NY.
Asia bled lower and London open swept to a 1.3272 session low near the two-week low. A second test at 1.3274 held, and NY has lifted cable back through the 1.3296 neckline after the neutral Budget, with price now pressing the 1.3304 NY high on rising lows. RSI(14) is 62 and ATR is about 7 pips ahead of FOMC.
Support: 1.3296, 1.3286, 1.3272
Resistance: 1.3304, 1.3312, 1.3321
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3304 NY high opens the 1.3312 Asian high, then the 1.3321 prior high
A close back below the 1.3296 neckline negates the breakout; losing the 1.3286 NY low breaks the rising lows
Failure at the 1.3272 session low would void the double bottom
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
14:47 UTC
Intraday rebound off day low, momentum flat · RSI 55 · price 1.3291
Higher lows since 1.3272, capped below 1.3304 spike high.
Cable slid through Asia and early Europe to a 1.3272 day low as GBP de-risked into the Budget and FOMC, then built higher lows into NY. The 12:30 UTC push to the 1.3304 spike high around the US trade data was rejected. Price is consolidating at 1.3291, near the 38.2% retrace of the day-low rebound, with RSI(14) neutral at 55 and price straddling EMA20/EMA50.
Support: 1.3286, 1.3272
Resistance: 1.3304, 1.3313
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.3304 spike high opens the 1.3313 asian high
Loss of the 1.3286 higher low and the rising lows line puts the 1.3272 day low back in play
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
14:17 UTC
Sideways after Asia-session selloff · RSI 48 · price 1.32874
1.3272–1.3296 London range, false break above in early NY.
Asia ground lower into a 1.3272 2-week low in early London as GBP stayed heavy on the Budget growth downgrade. A higher low at 1.3274 held, but the early-NY spike to 1.3304 stalled at 1.3300 and reversed back under the 1.3296 London high. Price now sits at the 50% retracement of the 1.3272–1.3304 leg, just above the 1.3285 swing low, with RSI(14) neutral near 48 and EMAs overhead.
Support: 1.3285, 1.3272
Resistance: 1.3296, 1.3304
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3285 swing low (61.8% retracement) exposes the 1.3272 2-week low
Close back above the 1.3296 london high and 1.3304 spike high would negate the false break
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
GBP set a double btm at 1.3272/1.3274 near its two-week low during London, as it stayed heavy into the Budget and its growth downgrade. The pair then pushed above the 1.3296 london high in the first hour of NY to a 1.3304 spike high, but that move failed back under 1.3300. Price now sits at the london high, just above EMA50, with RSI(14) at 54 and rising lows from 1.3274 still intact.
Support: 1.32845, 1.32723
Resistance: 1.32962, 1.33036, 1.33125
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.3304 spike high reopens the 1.3312 asian high
Break of the 1.3285 swing low (61.8% fib) undercuts the rising lows
Failure at the 1.3272 double btm confirms a lower-low below the two-week low
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and Warsh at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Double bottom near 1.3273, rising lows into NY, capped at 1.3304.
After Asia sold GBP down post-Budget, the pair double-bottomed at the 1.3273 session low, near the two-week low, and has printed rising lows since 11:00 UTC. In the first hour of NY it cleared the London high and tagged 1.3304, but met rejection there and settled back near 1.3297, with RSI(14) around 61.
Support: 1.3289, 1.3273
Resistance: 1.3304, 1.3313
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3304 ny high opens the 1.3313 asian high
Break of the rising lows near 1.3289, which also hosts ema20, puts the 1.3273 session low back in play
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and Warsh at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
13:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, stalled into a range · RSI 51 · price 1.32881
London range 1.3272–1.3296 below the Asian range, double bottom forming.
London opened with a sweep below the Asian range to a 1.3272 two-week low, and buyers stepped in again on the 1.3274 retest. That leaves a double bottom under the 1.3296 london high. Price is now pinned to EMA20 and the 38.2% retrace of the asian high–london low drop, with sterling heavy into the Budget and FOMC.
Support: 1.32845, 1.32723
Resistance: 1.32962, 1.3300, 1.33125
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.3296 london high completes the double bottom and exposes the 1.3300 round number, then the 1.3312 asian high
A break of the 1.3285 ny low returns focus to the 1.3272 london low; failure there confirms a lower-low
UK Budget headlines and the FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
13:02 UTC
Asia downtrend stalled, London rebound in place · RSI 54 · price 1.32901
Double bottom at 1.3272/1.3274, higher lows capped under 1.3296.
Asia ground lower from the 1.3313 asian high, and London open swept to a two-week low at 1.3272 before snapping back. The 11:00 UTC retest held 1.3274, completing a double btm under the 1.3296 session high, which sits on the 61.8% of the Asia decline. Price is coiling near 1.3290, above the 1.3285 pullback low, into the London-NY transition, with GBP soft ahead of the Budget and USD firm into FOMC.
Support: 1.32845, 1.32723
Resistance: 1.32962, 1.3300, 1.33125
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.3296 session high and 1.3300 round number completes the double btm read
Break of the 1.3285 pullback low puts the 1.3272 double btm back in play
Close below 1.3272 extends the lower-low sequence from Asia
UK Budget outcome and FOMC at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Double bottom 1.3272/1.3274, higher lows into London high.
London opened with a false break below the Asian range, printing a 1.3272 london low near the two-week low before buyers stepped in again at 1.3274 to form a double bottom. A higher low at 1.3286 has price pressing the 1.3296 london high into the UK Budget, with RSI(14) neutral at 52 and ATR(14) about 6 pips.
Support: 1.3286, 1.3272
Resistance: 1.3296, 1.3300, 1.3313
What it said to watch
UK Budget headroom and gilt reaction is live now; gilt yields up with GBP down would point to a break of the 1.3272 london low
M15 close above the 1.3296 london high opens the 1.3300 round number and the 1.3313 asian high
Failure to hold the 1.3286 higher low puts the double bottom read back into question
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh presser could materially shift this read late in the NY session
London open broke the Asian range low near 1.3288 on pre-Budget de-risking, printing a session low at 1.3272 near the 1.3275 two-week low. Since then price has ranged 1.3272–1.3296. A higher low at 1.3274 and a lower high at 1.3294 have compressed it onto ema20 as the UK Budget lands at 12:30 GMT.
Support: 1.32742, 1.32723
Resistance: 1.3294, 1.32962, 1.3300
What it said to watch
UK Budget at 12:30 GMT: the first reaction bars could resolve the 1.3272–1.3296 range either way
M15 close above the 1.3296 session high clears the lower high and exposes the 1.3300 round number
Failure to hold the 1.3274 higher low and the 1.3272 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward 1.3250
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Double bottom 1.3272/1.3274 below 1.3296 session high, inside Asian range.
London open broke below the Asian range to a 1.3272 session low, at the two-week low the digest cites. The dip during the budget window held a higher low at 1.3274. Price is back above the ema20 near 1.3288, pressing the 1.3296 session high, which sits close to the 61.8% fib of the Asia-to-London selloff.
Support: 1.3288, 1.3274, 1.3272
Resistance: 1.3296, 1.3300, 1.3313
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3296 session high and the 1.3300 round number completes the double bottom and opens the 1.3313 asian high
Loss of the 1.3274 budget low and the 1.3272 session low resumes lower lows toward the 1.3250–1.3275 zone
Rejection at 1.3296 with a close back below the ema20 at 1.3288 keeps a range between the session low and session high
No budget outcome in the inputs yet; budget headlines and gilt reaction could break the range
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Basing at 1.3272–1.3274 under a descending lower high.
London open broke the asian low at 1.3277, printed 1.3272 near the digest's 1.3275 two-week low, then reclaimed it. A second test of the london low at 1.3274 held during the budget-window selloff from the 1.3296 session high. Price now sits mid-range at EMA20, about a 57% fib retrace, capped by the 1.3291 lower high.
Support: 1.32742, 1.32771
Resistance: 1.32908, 1.32962, 1.33125
What it said to watch
UK Budget outcome is not yet in the inputs; fiscal-slippage headlines could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.3274 london low confirms a lower low and voids the double bottom
M15 close above the 1.3296 session high completes the double bottom and puts 1.3300 and the 1.3313 asian high in view
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
11:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, rebounding off London low · RSI 51 · price 1.32907
Asian low swept at London open; double low at 1.3272/1.3274, capped below 1.3296.
London open swept below the Asian low (1.3277) to a 1.3272 London low and reversed to a 1.3296 London high. The slide into the 10:00 UTC budget slot held at a 1.3274 retest low, forming a shallow double bottom, and price has recovered about 75% of that drop (london drop fib) to 1.3291, back above the ema20 near 1.3287 with RSI(14) neutral around 51 and ATR roughly 6 pips. That leaves a 1.3272–1.3296 London range, with GBP still heavy into the budget.
Support: 1.32865, 1.32742, 1.32723
Resistance: 1.32962, 1.3300, 1.33125
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3296 london high opens the 1.3300 psych level and the 1.3313 asian high
Loss of the ema20 near 1.3287 returns price to the middle of the London range
Failure at the 1.3274 retest low and then the 1.3272 london low breaks the double bottom and extends the lower-low sequence
UK budget headlines are still landing and the FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
11:32 UTC
Downtrend, stalling at lows · RSI 46 · price 1.32845
Lower highs from 1.3296; flat double base at 1.3274.
Asia ground lower from the 1.3313 asia high, and the London open extended to a 1.3273 two-week low before bouncing to 1.3296. The post-budget slide from 10:00 UTC retested the london low at 1.3274 and held, leaving a tentative double bottom under a line of lower highs, with price sitting just below EMA20.
Support: 1.3274, 1.3250
Resistance: 1.3296, 1.3313
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3296 london high would complete the double bottom and break the lower highs, opening the 1.3313 asia high
Failure to hold the 1.3274 london low resumes the downtrend toward the 1.3250 zone low
Gilt and BoE pricing reaction to the budget could extend volatility through the London afternoon
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower-high sequence, London bounce capped, retest of session low.
Cable bled lower through the Asian session into a 1.3272 session low at the London open as pre-budget de-risking and a firm USD weighed. The bounce stalled at the 1.3296 London high, and budget-hour selling has since put in a lower high at 1.3288 and pressed back to retest the lows. Price sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 1.32723, 1.3250
Resistance: 1.32879, 1.32962, 1.3300
What it said to watch
Break below the 1.3272 session low confirms a lower-low and puts the 1.3250 psych zone in view
M15 close above the 1.3296 London high invalidates the lower-high sequence and puts the 1.3300 round number in play
UK budget headlines through mid-London and the FOMC at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows; London bounce faded back to the session low.
Asia session bled from 1.3312 to a London-open session low at 1.3272. The bounce capped at the 1.3296 London high, and a lower high at 1.3288 has since pushed price back onto that low, with GBP being de-risked into the UK Budget and tonight's FOMC. RSI(14) is near 34, soft but not stretched.
Support: 1.32723, 1.3250
Resistance: 1.32879, 1.32962, 1.3300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3272 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.3250 round number
Recovery above the 1.3288 lower high breaks the trendline sequence; the 1.3296 London high and 1.3300 psych level sit above
UK Autumn Budget headlines are due now and could materially shift this read; FOMC at 18:00 UTC follows
LH/LL chain; London sweep low at 1.3272, now pressing the 1.3279 intraday low.
London broke below the Asian range and swept to a 1.3272 two-week low (london low), then snapped back. The bounce was rejected at 1.3296, a lower high near the 61.8% of the Asia-London drop and under the descending line from the 1.3313 asian high. Price has faded back to the 1.3279 intraday low ahead of the UK Budget, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 43 and pre-event USD firmness in the background.
Support: 1.32794, 1.32723
Resistance: 1.32962, 1.3300, 1.33125
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.3279 intraday low exposes the 1.3272 london low; a break there opens the 1.3250–1.3275 zone
M15 close above the 1.3296 lower high and the descending line breaks the LH sequence; 1.3300 psych sits just above
Sustained trade back above the 1.3313 asian high would negate the London breakdown
UK Budget delivery and the gilt reaction could materially shift this read
FOMC at 18:00 UTC, with the Warsh press conference at 18:30, is the next volatility risk for the NY session
London rebound capped at 1.3296, rolling over below the Asian low.
GBP stays heavy as the UK Budget gets underway. The London bounce from the 1.3272 session low stalled at the 1.3296 london high, roughly a 62% give-back of that bounce, and price is now pressing the 1.3280 budget low beneath the broken 1.3288 asian low. The descending line from the 1.3313 asian high keeps the lower-high sequence intact, and ATR near 6 pips is likely to widen on Budget headlines.
Support: 1.32801, 1.32723
Resistance: 1.32881, 1.32962, 1.33125
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3272 session low extends the downtrend toward the 1.3250–1.3275 zone flagged in the digest
Reclaim of the 1.3288 asian low, then the 1.3296 london high, would break the lower-high chain
Budget headroom figures and gilt yields in the next hour could reprice GBP sharply in either direction
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and the 18:30 UTC press conference are the second event risk today
10:02 UTC
Downtrend, London bounce fading · RSI 40 · price 1.32834
Lower highs from the Asian high; the London-open sweep low is holding for now.
Asia pushed the four-day slide through the 1.3290 range floor. London open swept to a London low of 1.3272 before rebounding to the 1.3296 London high, where it saw rejection just under the 61.8% fib retrace of the Asian high–London low leg. Price has faded back to 1.3283 into the 10:00 UTC Budget, below EMA20 with RSI(14) near 40, and the descending trendline from the Asian high is still intact.
Support: 1.32723, 1.3250
Resistance: 1.3290, 1.32962, 1.33125
What it said to watch
UK Budget lands on the current bar; ATR(14) of ~6 pips will understate the event range, and a gilt-yield spike alongside a falling GBP marks a credibility hit
Failure to hold the London low at 1.3272 opens the 1.3250 round number (Scotiabank 1.3250–1.3275 zone)
An M15 close back above the 1.3290 range floor and the 1.3296 London high breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high sequence
Asian high 1.3313 caps the session range; FOMC at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read later
09:47 UTC
Downtrend, London bounce fading · RSI 46 · price 1.32858
Lower highs from Asia high; London-open sweep low, half-retraced rebound.
The four-day slide carried through Asia from the 1.3313 asia high. At London open it ran below the Asian low to the 1.3272 london low, where a sweep reversed into a 24-pip bounce to the 1.3296 london high. The 09:30 bar gave back about half that move, leaving price near the fib 50% at 1.3284 and below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 46 as pre-Budget caution and a firm USD cap the 1.3300 handle.
Support: 1.32843, 1.32723
Resistance: 1.32962, 1.33125
What it said to watch
UK Budget at 10:00 UTC, minutes away, is the dominant catalyst; the gilt yield reaction likely sets the next leg
Failure to hold the 1.3272 london low confirms a lower-low and opens the 1.3250–1.3275 zone
M15 close above the 1.3296 london high puts the 1.3313 asia high back in play
A break below the fib 50% at 1.3284 turns the London bounce into a lower high
FOMC at 18:00 UTC later today could materially shift this read
False break below Asian low, tight coil 1.3289–1.3296.
London open pushed below the Asian low to 1.3272, but the break failed. Price recovered about 55% of the Asian high-to-london low drop, carried by the USD bid that has driven the 4-day slide. It is now coiling between a higher low at 1.3289 and an intraday cap at 1.3296, just under the 61.8% fib, into the 10:00 UTC Budget.
Support: 1.3289, 1.3272
Resistance: 1.3296, 1.3313
What it said to watch
UK Budget at 10:00 UTC is due within the next few bars and could break the coil either way
M15 close above the 1.3296 intraday cap and 61.8% fib opens the path to the 1.3313 Asian high
Close below the 1.3289 higher low breaks the rising lows line and exposes the 1.3272 london low
FOMC at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read later in the NY session
09:17 UTC
Downtrend, London rebound stalling · RSI 55 · price 1.32945
False break of Asian low, reclaim into range.
London open drove a false break of the Asian low at 1.3288 down to the London low at 1.3272, then reversed sharply. A higher low at 1.3281 followed, but the rebound is stalling at the London high near 1.3296, close to the 61.8% fib and EMA50. Cable's overnight slide tracks pre-FOMC USD demand, and the UK Budget at 10:00 UTC is the next catalyst.
Support: 1.32881, 1.32812, 1.32723
Resistance: 1.32962, 1.3300, 1.33125
What it said to watch
UK Budget at 10:00 UTC, about 45 min out, could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.3300 round number clears the 61.8% fib and exposes the Asian high at 1.3313
Failure to hold the 1.3281 higher low, then the 1.3288 Asian low, reopens the London low at 1.3272
FOMC at 18:00 UTC, with Warsh at 18:30, is the second event risk for NY hours
False break below Asian low reclaimed; lower highs from yesterday's 1.3334 peak intact.
Cable slipped through the Asian low at 1.3288 into early London on pre-Fed dollar demand and swept to the 1.3272 London low before reclaiming the Asian range. The rebound printed a higher low at 1.3281 and stalled at the 1.3296 session high, near the 61.8% of the Asia high-low fib. Price is coiling on the 1.3290 range floor an hour before the UK Budget.
Support: 1.32881, 1.32812, 1.32723
Resistance: 1.32958, 1.33022
What it said to watch
UK Budget at 10:00 UTC could materially shift this read. A fiscal-credibility hit would put the 1.3290 floor under pressure.
An M15 close below the 1.3281 higher low exposes the 1.3272 London low and voids the false-break read.
A close above the 1.3296 session high and the 61.8% fib opens the 1.3302 NY low from yesterday.
FOMC at 18:00 UTC is a second event risk later in the NY session.
Lower highs from Asian high; London low swept and reclaimed.
Pre-Budget caution and a firm USD into the FOMC extended the slide through Asia. London open broke the asian low at 1.3288 to a london low of 1.3272, then reversed sharply back to the 50% retrace of the asian high–london low drop. The session high at 1.3296 and the 1.3300 round number now cap the bounce.
Support: 1.3288, 1.3272
Resistance: 1.3296, 1.3300, 1.3313
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3300 round number puts the asian high at 1.3313 back in view
Failure to hold the asian low at 1.3288 reopens the london low at 1.3272
Rejection at the 1.3296 session high keeps the lower-high sequence intact
UK Budget at 10:00 UTC and FOMC at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
08:32 UTC
Downtrend, early London rebound · RSI 54 · price 1.32953
Asia lower highs/lows broke yesterday's low; V-rebound off 1.3272 now retesting the 1.3300 breakdown.
Pre-Budget and pre-FOMC USD demand pushed Asia through yesterday's 1.3302 low to a session low at 1.3272 just before London, where the low was rejected. Early London has retraced to 1.3295, between the 50% and 61.8% of the Asia drop fib and just under the 1.3300 round number and EMA50.
Support: 1.32848, 1.32723
Resistance: 1.3300, 1.33125
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3300 round number and the 61.8% fib reclaims the breakdown area, opening the 1.3313 asia high
Failure back below the 1.3285 london low puts the 1.3272 session low back in play
UK Budget at 10:00 UTC; the gilt reaction could materially shift this read
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC, presser 18:30 UTC
08:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, bouncing off london low · RSI 46 · price 1.32874
Lower highs through Asia; London open swept below the Asian low to 1.3272 and was rejected; bounce now capped at 1.3289.
Asia ground lower from the 1.3313 asian high, and London open extended the slide to a 1.3272 london low before a sharp rejection. The rebound has stalled twice at the 1.3289 asian low, which lines up with the 38.2% retracement of the Asia fib, as pre-Budget de-risking and a firm USD keep this a fourth down day.
Support: 1.3281, 1.3272
Resistance: 1.3289, 1.3313
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3289 asian low turns the London dip into a sweep-and-reclaim and opens the 1.3313 asian high
Loss of the 1.3281 pullback low puts the 1.3272 london low back in play; a break below it resumes the downtrend toward 1.3250
UK Budget at 10:00 UTC and FOMC at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs through Asia, sharp bounce stalling at 38.2%.
Asia extended GBP's fourth down day ahead of the Budget, with lower highs from the 1.33125 Asian high and a pre-FOMC USD bid driving a drop to a 1.32723 session low. That low saw a sharp rejection. The rebound into London open is now stalling at the 38.2% retrace near 1.3290, with ema20 overhead and a higher low at 1.3281.
Support: 1.3281, 1.32723
Resistance: 1.3290, 1.3297, 1.33125
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 61.8% fib at 1.3297 and 1.3300 breaks the lower-highs trendline and neutralises the Asian downtrend
Loss of the 1.3281 higher low reopens the 1.32723 session low
UK Budget at 10:00 UTC and the FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia, V-rebound into the broken asia shelf.
Asia ground lower from the 1.3313 asia high through 1.3300 psych and the 1.3292 asia shelf, then extended to a 1.3272 session low just before London open on the pre-Budget, pre-FOMC USD bid. A sharp rejection off that low has lifted price to 1.3288, at the 38.2% fib of the Asia drop and just under the shelf, with RSI(14) recovering to 43.
Support: 1.3272, 1.3250
Resistance: 1.3292, 1.3300, 1.3313
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3292 asia shelf and 1.3300 psych would print the first higher high since the 1.3313 asia high
Failure back through the 1.3272 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.3250 scotia zone
UK Budget at 10:00 UTC and FOMC at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
07:17 UTC
Downtrend, oversold into London open · RSI 17 · price 1.32742
Lower-high chain through Asia; Asian range broken to the downside at London open.
Cable printed an unbroken lower-high chain under the Asia LH trendline. London open then broke the asian low at 1.3288 and the 1.3290 range floor, putting in a session low at 1.3273 with RSI(14) near 17. Pre-Budget GBP caution and a firm USD into FOMC frame the slide, and price now sits inside the 1.3250–1.3275 support zone flagged by banks.
Support: 1.32732, 1.3250
Resistance: 1.32881, 1.33052, 1.33125
What it said to watch
UK Budget statement at 10:00 UTC and the gilt reaction could materially shift this read
Reclaim of the asian low at 1.3288 would mark the London break as a false break
Acceptance below the 1.3273 session low exposes the 1.3250 round number
M15 close above the Asia LH trendline (~1.3290s) breaks the lower-high chain; asia lh at 1.3305 and asian high at 1.3313 sit above
FOMC at 18:00 UTC is the second event risk for this read
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia, Asian range broken lower.
Cable extended its pre-Budget slide through Asia on a firm USD, putting in lower highs from 1.3306 and breaking the Asian low at 1.3288 at 06:30 UTC. The session low at 1.3277 now sits on the top edge of the 1.3250–1.3275 support zone flagged by banks, with RSI(14) near 16.
Support: 1.32771, 1.3250
Resistance: 1.32881, 1.3300, 1.33125
What it said to watch
A reclaim of the 1.3288 Asian low and the lower highs trendline would neutralise the breakdown
Acceptance below the 1.3277 session low exposes the 1.3250 zone floor
The 1.3300 round number, near the 61.8% retracement of the Asia drop, and the 1.3313 Asian high sit above any recovery
UK Budget at 10:00 UTC and FOMC at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower-high, lower-low chain since 1.3334; Asia broke below 1.3290 base.
Asia extended the sequence of lower highs and lower lows from yesterday's 1.3334 high. Price broke out of the overnight 1.3298–1.3305 range and through the 1.3290 base, setting an Asia low at 1.3280 as pre-FOMC dollar demand and Budget caution weighed on GBP. RSI(14) near 19 is deeply oversold into London open, with the descending trendline and 50% fib of the Asia high-low leg converging at the 1.3296 lower high.
Support: 1.32804, 1.3275
Resistance: 1.3290, 1.32961, 1.33125
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 1.3290 base would turn the Asia break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.3280 Asia low exposes the 1.3275 zone
A break of the descending trendline and the 1.3296 lower high ends the lower-high chain, with the 1.3313 Asia high above
UK Budget at 10:00 UTC (~3h) and FOMC at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
LH/LL chain since Tuesday NY; Asian session broke below the 1.3300/1.3290 floor.
Cable has carved lower highs since Tuesday's NY session. In Asia it slipped through the 1.3300/1.3290 floor on firm pre-FOMC USD, holding an Asian range of 1.3288 (asian low) to 1.3313 (asian high) into London open. The broken floor at 1.3298 and the 1.3306 lower high cap the Asian drop; RSI(14) is near 28 with ATR around 3 pips.
Support: 1.32881
Resistance: 1.3298, 1.33057, 1.33125
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.3298 broken floor would turn the Asian break into a false break
Loss of the 1.3288 asian low extends the lower-low chain as London opens
A close above the lower highs trendline and the 1.3306 lower high ends the sequence; 1.3313 asian high next
UK Budget (10:00 UTC per digest) and FOMC at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
05:47 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower in late Asia · RSI 30 · price 1.32912
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday London, Asia below 1.3300.
Clean lower-high chain from Tuesday's 1.3334 London high. Asia slipped through 1.3300 psych to a 1.3289 asian low as USD stayed firm into FOMC, with RSI(14) near 30 and ATR around 3 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 1.3289
Resistance: 1.3300, 1.33057, 1.33125
What it said to watch
A close back above the 1.3306 swing high breaks the lower-highs trendline read
Asian high at 1.3313 caps the session; reclaiming it shifts structure to range
Failure to hold the 1.3289 asian low extends the lower-low sequence through the 1.3290 floor
UK Budget at 10:00 UTC and FOMC at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from yesterday's 1.3334 London peak still cap price, and the Asia slide from the 1.3313 asian high has cut through the 1.3300 round number on firmer USD and pre-Budget caution. Price is sitting on the 1.3293 session low just above the 1.3290 range floor. RSI(14) near 32 is not yet oversold, and ATR around 3 pips reflects thin late-Asia trade ahead of the London open.
Support: 1.32931, 1.3290
Resistance: 1.3300, 1.33057, 1.33125
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3290 range floor extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery back above the 1.3300 round number and the 1.3306 swing high breaks the lower-high chain; asian high 1.3313 sits above
A rejection at the falling lower highs line (~1.3302) keeps the downtrend structure intact
UK Budget at 10:00 UTC and the FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs through Asia, broke shelf, basing at session low.
Late Asia session: GBPUSD broke the 1.3298–1.3306 broken shelf at 04:00 UTC and is pressing the 1.3294 session low, below Tuesday's NY lows. Lower highs from the 1.3313 Asian high cap the slide on firm pre-FOMC Dollar demand, with RSI(14) near 38 and ATR only ~3 pips as ranges compress ahead of the UK Budget.
Support: 1.32939, 1.3290, 1.3275
Resistance: 1.32985, 1.33057, 1.33125
What it said to watch
A close back above the 1.3299 broken shelf and then the 1.3306 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence.
A move through the 1.3290 range floor exposes the 1.3250–1.3275 support zone.
A close above the 1.3313 Asian high invalidates the trendline resistance.
The UK Budget at 10:00 UTC (~5h) and FOMC at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read.
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday NY, price at the Asian session low.
The lower-high/lower-low chain from Tuesday's 1.3334 peak extends into late Asia. Price broke the 1.3302 prior-day low and the 1.32975 swing low and now sits at the 1.3294 session low, with the Asian high at 1.33125 and the descending trendline capping each bounce on firm USD into FOMC. RSI(14) near 34 and ATR around 3 pips point to a thin pre-Budget drift just above the 1.3290 range floor.
Support: 1.3294, 1.3290, 1.3275
Resistance: 1.32975, 1.33022, 1.33125
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3290 range floor exposes the 1.3275 support zone
Reclaim of the 1.32975 swing low and the Asian leg's 61.8% near 1.3305 would stall the lower-low chain; a close above the 1.33125 Asian high and the descending trendline breaks it
UK Budget at 10:00 UTC and the FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
LH/LL chain from 1.3334; late Asia broke below the 1.2998–1.3005 shelf to fresh lows.
Each bounce since the 1.3334 London-session high has made a lower high, the latest at the 1.3306 swing high, as the Dollar stays firm into FOMC. Late Asia broke below the 1.3298 broken low and the Asian range is now trading near its own low at 1.3294, just above the 1.3290 range floor. ATR has compressed to about 3.5 pips ahead of the UK budget.
Support: 1.3290, 1.3275
Resistance: 1.32975, 1.33057, 1.33125
What it said to watch
A close back above the 1.3306 swing high breaks the lower-high chain; reclaiming the 1.3313 asian high would invalidate the downtrend read
Failure at the 1.3290 range floor exposes the 1.3275 support zone
The UK budget at 10:00 UTC (~5.5h) is the main swing factor for sterling in this window
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC; the presser at 18:30 UTC could reverse the pre-Fed Dollar bid
Watch the 1.3298 broken low for a retest from below
Lower highs since Tuesday's 1.3334 NY peak have carried GBPUSD through 1.3300 psych and the Asian range low into a fresh session low at 1.3295 late in Asia, in line with the pre-FOMC Dollar bid and budget nerves. RSI(14) near 35 is not stretched. The 1.3306 swing high caps the bounce, with the Asian high at 1.3312 near the 38.2% retrace of the NY peak fib.
Support: 1.32949, 1.3290
Resistance: 1.3300, 1.33057, 1.33125
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.3306 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence
Acceptance below the 1.3290 round number extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.3250-1.3275 zone
Rejection at 1.3300 psych on a retest keeps the breakdown read intact
UK Budget at 10:00 UTC and FOMC at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the London high; Asia pinned near session low.
A lower-high/lower-low chain has held since Tuesday's 1.3334 London high, with the descending trendline capping every bounce as firm US data and pre-FOMC Dollar demand pressed the pair. Asia broke the 1.3302 late-NY low to the 1.3298 asian low and is now holding just above it under a 1.3306 lower high, RSI(14) 43 and ATR about 3.6 pips.
Support: 1.32975, 1.3290
Resistance: 1.33057, 1.33125, 1.33196
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.3306 lower high breaks the micro lower-high chain; the 1.3313 asian high and the trendline sit just above
Failure to hold the 1.3298 asian low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3290 range floor
A recovery through the 1.3320 ny high would end the descending trendline read
UK Budget at 10:00 UTC (~6h) and FOMC at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since yesterday's London session; price pinned at 1.3300 near the Asian low.
A lower-high chain from 1.3334 into the late NY high at 1.3320, then the Asian high at 1.3312, keeps the descending highs line intact. The Asian session printed a fresh low at 1.3298 on the firm-dollar backdrop, and the bounce stalled at the 1.3306 swing high. Price sits on the 1.3300 round number below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 39 and not stretched.
Support: 1.32975, 1.3290
Resistance: 1.33057, 1.33125, 1.33196
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.3298 Asian low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.3290 range floor
Close above the 1.3312 Asian high and the descending highs line breaks the lower-high sequence; 1.3320 NY high is next
UK Autumn Budget at 10:00 UTC (~6h) could materially shift this read; gilt reaction is the swing factor
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC later today adds event risk to the USD leg
03:32 UTC
Downtrend, Asia stalling just below 1.3300 · RSI 41 · price 1.33025
Lower highs from NY into Asia; Asian dip below 1.3300 partly retraced.
Asia extended the lower-high sequence from NY, dipping to a 1.32975 asian low before a bounce stalled at the fib 50% of the Asian drop near 1.3306, where supply is capping. The drift fits Dollar firmness after Tuesday's US data and GBP softness into the budget. RSI(14) ~41, ATR around 3.6 pips with London yet to open.
Support: 1.32975, 1.3290
Resistance: 1.33057, 1.33125, 1.33196
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.3306 fib 50% and the 1.33125 asian high breaks the lower-highs trendline and exposes the 1.33196 ny swing hi
Failure to hold the 1.32975 asian low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.3290 range floor
UK Budget at 10:00 UTC (~6.5h) and FOMC at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
03:17 UTC
Downtrend, momentum flattening in late Asia · RSI 47 · price 1.3304
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.3334 London high; Asian range 1.3298–1.3313 compressing above 1.3300.
Lower-high chain from the 1.3334 London high through the 1.3320 swing high to the 1.3313 Asia high. Lows followed at 1.3302 in NY and a fresh 1.3298 Asia low as the Dollar firmed into FOMC. Late Asia is compressing on the 1.3300 round number, with RSI(14) neutral near 47 and ATR around 4 pips ahead of the UK Budget.
Support: 1.3300, 1.32975
Resistance: 1.33125, 1.33196, 1.33342
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3298 Asia low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.3250–1.3275 zone flagged in the digest
Close above the 1.3313 Asia high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence; the 1.3320 swing high and 1.3334 London high sit above
UK Budget at 10:00 UTC (~7h) and FOMC at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
03:02 UTC
Downtrend, stalling at 1.3300 · RSI 47 · price 1.33044
Lower highs since 1.3334; Asia holding a 1.3298–1.3313 range.
A chain of lower highs runs from the 1.3334 prior high through 1.3320 into today's 1.3313 asian high, with the dollar firm into FOMC. Asia briefly dipped below the 1.3302 NY low to a 1.32975 asian low before stabilising around the 1.3300 psych level. Price is now mid-range, just under EMA20 and the lower-highs line near 1.3307.
Support: 1.3300, 1.32975, 1.3290
Resistance: 1.33125, 1.33196, 1.33342
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3313 asian high breaks the lower-highs line; 1.3320 lower high is next
Failure to hold 1.3300 psych and the 1.32975 asian low exposes the 1.3290 range floor
London open (~4h) typically sets direction for the Asian range
UK Budget at 10:00 UTC (~7h) and FOMC at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since 12:15 UTC; tight Asian range under trendline.
Lower highs held from 1.3334 to 1.3313 as USD short-covering into the Fed extended the slide. Asia broke the 1.3307 range low and printed a 1.3298 Asian low. Price is now holding a 15-pip Asian range just under the descending trendline and the former range low, with RSI(14) neutral near 48.
Support: 1.32975, 1.3275
Resistance: 1.3307, 1.33125, 1.33196
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.3307 range low and the descending trendline would break the lower-high chain
A move through the 1.3313 Asian high opens the 1.3320 swing high, also the 61.8% fib of the 1.3332–1.3298 leg
Failure to hold the 1.3298 Asian low confirms a fresh lower-low and exposes the 1.3275 next zone
UK Budget at 10:00 UTC (gilt reaction) could materially shift this read, with the FOMC at 18:00 UTC to follow
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.3334 high, Asia trading near its range low.
Each rally since the 1.3334 high after the US data has failed lower, with lower lows at 1.3307, 1.3305 and 1.3302. Asia faded its 1.33125 high and printed an Asian low at 1.32975, so the prior low at 1.3302 and the 1.3307 low flagged in the digest now sit overhead. Price is pinned around 1.3300 under the falling trendline (~1.3308) as USD short-covering into the FOMC extends, with RSI(14) at 42 and no oversold reading.
Support: 1.32975, 1.3290
Resistance: 1.33022, 1.3308, 1.33125
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the prior low at 1.3302 and the trendline (~1.3308) would stall the lower-high sequence
Reclaiming the asian high at 1.33125 invalidates the intraday downtrend read
Failure to hold the asian low at 1.32975 extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.3290 range floor
UK Budget at 10:00 UTC; a loose fiscal surprise and a rise in gilt yields could accelerate the move
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and the 18:30 UTC presser could materially shift this read
LH/LL chain since Tuesday's NY session; Asia printed a fresh low just under 1.3300.
Asia opened with a pop to the 1.3312 session high that faded into a fresh session low at 1.3298, briefly through 1.3300 and Tuesday's NY low near 1.3302. Pre-Fed USD demand and Budget caution keep GBP heavy. The descending trendline off Tuesday's 1.3332 high caps near 1.3309, with the 1.3320 swing high the last lower high.
Support: 1.32975, 1.3290
Resistance: 1.3309, 1.33125, 1.33196
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3312 session high breaks the lower-high chain; above the 1.3320 swing high voids the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 1.3298 session low extends lower lows toward the 1.3290 range floor
UK Budget ~10:00 UTC and FOMC 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower-high/lower-low chain from 1.3334; fresh session low at 1.3298.
Lower highs from 1.3334 remain intact. The early Asia session pop to the 1.3313 asia high was rejected, and price slipped through the 1.3305 asia base to a session low at 1.3298 as USD holds two-week highs into the Budget and FOMC. RSI(14) near 37 is not stretched, and the 1.3290 range floor sits just below.
Support: 1.3298, 1.3290, 1.3275
Resistance: 1.3305, 1.33125, 1.3320
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.3313 asia high would break the lower-high line and the downtrend read
Recapture of the 1.3305 asia base would turn the 1.3298 session low into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.3290 range floor exposes the 1.3275 zone and extends the selloff fib
UK Budget around 10:00 UTC and FOMC at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower-high/lower-low chain since the 1.3332 NY high; price pinned near 1.3300 in early Asia.
Cable has printed lower highs since the 1.3332 NY high after firm US data and pre-Fed USD demand, with a fresh session low at 1.3298 early in the Asia session. The Asian pop to the 1.3313 asian high met rejection at the lower-high trendline, near the 38.2% retrace of the NY high to session low move. Price is holding just above 1.3300 with RSI(14) near 43 and ATR around 3.6 pips.
Support: 1.32981
Resistance: 1.33125, 1.33196, 1.33317
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3313 asian high breaks the lower-high trendline and challenges the downtrend read
Clearance of the 1.3320 lower high opens a retest of the 1.3332 ny high
Failure to hold the 1.3298 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3290 range floor
UK Budget (~10:00 UTC) and the FOMC decision (18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Early in Asia, GBPUSD has slipped back from the 1.3312 asian high to a fresh window low at the 1.3300 psych level. Lower highs from the 1.3334 NY peak keep the intraday downtrend line intact, in step with pre-Fed USD demand and UK Budget caution. RSI(14) near 39 is not stretched.
Support: 1.3300, 1.3290
Resistance: 1.3305, 1.33125, 1.33196
What it said to watch
Sustained trade below the 1.3300 psych exposes the 1.3290 range floor
Recovery back above the 1.3305 prior lows shelf would turn the dip under 1.3300 into a false break
M15 close above the 1.3320 swing high breaks the lower-high chain and the downtrend line
UK Budget ~10:00 UTC and FOMC at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
00:47 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 49 · price 1.33075
Lower highs and lower lows since London; tight Asia base above 1.3302.
London broke the prior Asian range low near 1.3326, and NY extended a lower-high chain (1.3334, 1.3332, 1.3320, 1.3318) on firm US data and pre-Fed USD demand, bottoming at a 1.3302 swing low. Early Asia has held a 1.3302–1.3307 band. A spike to a 1.3312 Asia high met rejection and faded back to EMA20, with ATR shrinking to about 3 pips.
Support: 1.33022, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.33125, 1.3318
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3312 Asia high and the lower-high trendline breaks the sequence; 1.3318 lower high next
Failure to hold the 1.3302 swing low and 1.3300 round number extends the lower-low chain
UK Budget around 10:00 UTC during London hours, then FOMC at 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
00:32 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 58 · price 1.33102
Lower highs into a 1.3302–1.3307 floor; early-Asia bounce.
London and NY printed lower highs at 1.3334, the 1.3332 NY high and the 1.3320 swing high. Firm US data and pre-Fed USD demand drove the pressure, while lows compressed into 1.3302–1.3307. Early Asia bounced from the 1.3305 Asian low to a 1.3313 session high, stalling near the 38.2% fib of the 1.3332–1.3302 leg; RSI(14) is around 58 and ATR is about 3 pips.
Support: 1.33055, 1.33022
Resistance: 1.33125, 1.33196, 1.33317
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.3302 swing low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 1.3290 range floor
A close above the 1.3320 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to clear the 1.3313 session high keeps the bounce inside the fib zone
UK Budget (~10:00 UTC) and FOMC (18:00 UTC) on Wednesday could materially shift this read
Lower highs/lower lows from 1.3346; small break above the overnight range.
London and NY printed lower highs and lower lows from 1.3346 to a 1.3302 swing low on pre-Fed USD buying after firm US data. Early Asia lifted out of the tight 1.3302–1.3307 overnight range to 1.3312, just under the 38.2% fib of the 1.3334–1.3302 decline.
Support: 1.3307, 1.3302
Resistance: 1.3320, 1.3334
What it said to watch
A close back below the 1.3307 range top returns price to the overnight range; losing the 1.3302 swing low extends the lower-low chain toward 1.3290
A close above the 1.3320 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence, with the 1.3334 lower high next
UK Budget (~10:00 UTC) and the FOMC decision (18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs since 1.3334, flat 1.3302–1.3307 base.
London broke the Asian range low near 1.3326. NY then printed lower highs at 1.3334, 1.3320 and 1.3318 into a 1.3302 session low, with pre-FOMC USD demand and UK Budget caution behind the slide. Price has gone flat in a 1.3302–1.3307 band, just above the 1.3290 range floor, with ATR(14) compressed below 3 pips.
Support: 1.3302, 1.3290
Resistance: 1.3318, 1.3334
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.3302 session low exposes the 1.3290 range floor
Close above the 1.3318 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and the fib 50% zone
UK Budget ~10:00 UTC could materially shift this read; the FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC follows
Reclaiming the 1.3334 NY high would neutralise the intraday downtrend read