Lower highs and lower lows all week; lower-highs trendline broken, rebound capped under 1.3340.
From Monday's 1.3387 Asia high the pair printed four days of lower highs and lower lows. London sessions drove each leg down to Wednesday's 1.3272 week low, the low end of this week's down-leg. Warsh's split-vote hold sparked a NY rebound that broke the lower-highs trendline and tagged a 1.3338 FOMC high, between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of the week's down-leg, before stalling under the 1.3340 area. Price now holds just above the EMA(20) near 1.3310 and the EMA(50) near 1.3317, with RSI(14) recovered to the high 50s.
Support: 1.3310, 1.3300, 1.3272
Resistance: 1.3338, 1.3359, 1.3370
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3338 FOMC high and the 1.3340 area opens the 1.3359 Mon NY high and the 1.3370 weekly open (prior-week close)
Failure to hold the EMA(20) at 1.3310 and the 1.3300 psych level would turn the trendline breakout into a false break, exposing the 1.3272 week low
US core PCE, Q3 GDP and jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC (~14h) could materially shift this read
Lower-high sequence broken; double bottom at 1.3272 with recovery stalling below 1.3338.
Cable bled from Monday's 1.3387 week high in a steady lower-high sequence. London sessions drove each leg lower until a double bottom formed at the 1.3272 week low around Wednesday's London open. The descending trendline gave way during NY hours. The Fed hold, read as less hawkish after Warsh's 'tightening is working' line, then spiked price to the 1.3338 fomc high, stalling between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of the week's decline. Price now holds above EMA(20), which sits near the 1.3300 round number, with RSI(14) recovering to the low 60s.
Support: 1.3300, 1.3272
Resistance: 1.3338, 1.3359, 1.3387
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3338 fomc high clears Tuesday's ceiling and opens the 1.3359 prior high
Failure to hold the 1.3300 round number puts the 1.3272 week low and double bottom back in play
Core PCE and Q3 GDP Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Monday broken; double bottom at week low resolved higher.
Sterling ground lower from Monday's 1.3387 high through Tuesday's sessions. It printed a 1.3272/1.3274 double bottom around Wednesday's London open, ahead of the UK Budget and FOMC, on firm USD and hot US data. NY hours broke the 1.3296 neckline and the lower-high line from Monday. The Fed's 10–2 hold then spiked price to a 1.3338 fed-day high, and it now sits just above the 50% fib of the week's decline and back over EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 67.
Support: 1.3330, 1.3296, 1.3272
Resistance: 1.3338, 1.3343, 1.3370
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 61.8% fib at 1.3343 exposes the weekly open at 1.3370
Break of the recovery line near 1.3292 and loss of the 1.3296 neckline negates the double bottom
Failure at the 1.3272 week low resumes the lower-low sequence toward 1.3250
Warsh presser in progress and Thu 12:30 UTC US GDP/core PCE could materially shift this read
Lower highs Mon–Wed; 1.3272 low held, descending line broken in NY.
GBPUSD slid from Monday's 1.3387 high to a 1.3272 week low into Wednesday's London open, with lower highs each day and RSI(14) dipping below 30, as firm US data and hawkish Fed pricing lifted the dollar. NY session buying formed higher lows off the week low and pushed price back over EMA(20) and the descending lower-highs line. The FOMC hold (10–2, two hike dissents) spiked price to the 1.3338 fomc high before a rejection back to about 1.3318, near the 38.2% retrace of the week's drop and just under the 1.3321 pre-FOMC high, with the 1.3288 fomc low marking the bottom of the decision bar.
Support: 1.3303, 1.32883, 1.32723
Resistance: 1.33209, 1.33384, 1.33697
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 1.3338 fomc high clears the 50% retrace and opens the path toward the 1.3370 weekly open
A slip back below EMA(20) near 1.3303 and the 1.3288 fomc low would undo the trendline breakout and revive the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.3272 week low extends the four-day slide toward 1.3250–1.3275
Warsh presser tone and Thursday's 12:30 UTC GDP/core PCE could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Friday; double bottom at 1.3272 lows.
GBPUSD has printed a string of lower highs since Friday's 1.3407 top. Each leg lower ran through Asia into early London, ending at Wednesday's 1.3272 two-week low as the USD firmed into FOMC. A double bottom at 1.3272/1.3274, with RSI(14) making a higher low, drove a NY-session bounce to 1.3321, but it faded at the lower-highs trendline near EMA(50) and the 38.2% retracement of the decline. Price is back at EMA(20) and the 1.3300 psych level, with RSI flat at 50.
Support: 1.3300, 1.3272
Resistance: 1.3321, 1.3334, 1.3370
What it said to watch
FOMC decision (18:00 UTC) and Warsh press conference (18:30 UTC) could materially shift this read; the current bar sits on the release
H1 close above the lower-highs trendline and 1.3321 day high breaks the sequence of lower highs; that opens the 1.3334 tuesday high and the 1.3370 weekly open
Failure to hold 1.3300 psych/ema20 brings the 1.3272 2-week low back into focus; a close below it confirms a fresh lower low
Thursday's US core PCE (12:30 UTC) is the next scheduled risk to the structure
17:03 UTC
Downtrend, bouncing into FOMC · RSI 59 · price 1.33157
Lower highs since Monday, descending line broken on the rebound.
GBPUSD has printed lower highs since Monday's 1.3387 high. The slide extended to a 1.3272 week low at Wednesday's London open as the USD firmed into FOMC. Buying during NY hours has since lifted price back above EMA(20) at 1.3301 and through the lower-high line, with RSI(14) recovering from 23 to about 59; the bounce is now testing the 38.2% retracement and EMA(50) near 1.3316, just under the 1.3321 day high.
Support: 1.3301, 1.3272
Resistance: 1.3321, 1.3334, 1.3370
What it said to watch
FOMC decision and Warsh press conference in the next one to two hours could materially shift this read
H1 close above the Tuesday high at 1.3334 breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 1.3370 week open in view
Failure back below EMA(20) at 1.3301 turns the trendline break into a false break and reopens the 1.3272 week low
Thursday's US core PCE is a second USD risk event inside the next session
16:02 UTC
Downtrend since weekly open, bouncing off lows · RSI 47 · price 1.32998
Lower highs/lower lows Mon–Wed; double bottom at week low.
Cable has printed lower highs and lower lows since Monday's weekly open at 1.3370. The slide began with the drop into Monday's NY open and extended to a 1.3272 week low at today's London open as USD stayed firm into FOMC. A double bottom at 1.3272–1.3274 and the broadly neutral UK Budget have since lifted price back to 1.3300, sitting on the EMA(20) at 1.3298 near the 23.6% week fib and edging above the lower-highs trendline, while RSI(14) has recovered to ~47 and EMA(50) still sits overhead.
Support: 1.3298, 1.3272
Resistance: 1.3305, 1.3334, 1.3370
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh's 18:30 presser could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 1.3305 session high and the 38.2% week fib near 1.3316 opens the path to the 1.3334 Tuesday high
Failure to hold the EMA(20) at 1.3298, then a break of the 1.3272 week low, resumes the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 1.3370 weekly open would negate the week's downtrend structure
Lower highs since Monday; rebound from week low testing 1.3300 handle.
Cable has printed lower highs since Monday's 1.3387 Asia high. It slid from the 1.3370 weekly open to a 1.3272 week low at Wednesday's London open as USD firmed into FOMC and the neutral Budget passed without a lift. The rebound through the London-NY transition has formed a shallow double bottom at 1.3272/1.3274 and pushed price back to the 1.3300 handle, just above EMA(20) at 1.3297, with RSI(14) recovering to ~50. Supply sits at the Tuesday low at 1.3305, with the 50% fib of the week's drop at 1.3330 above it.
Support: 1.3297, 1.3272
Resistance: 1.3305, 1.3330, 1.3370
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.3330 (50% fib and lower-highs trendline) breaks this week's lower-high sequence and puts the 1.3370 weekly open back in view
Slip back below EMA(20) near 1.3297 and a loss of the 1.3272 week low resumes the downtrend
Rejection at the 1.3305 Tuesday low keeps the bounce corrective within the lower-highs structure
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh press conference 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday; capped at 1.3300.
GBPUSD has printed lower highs and lower lows since Monday's 1.3387 high, about 15 pips above the 1.3370 weekly open. Most of each leg lower came in the London session, as the USD firmed on strong US data and GBP stayed heavy into the Budget and its 2027 growth downgrade. Wednesday's London open set the week low at 1.3272, and an 11:00 UTC retest held at 1.3274, a tentative double-bottom shape. The NY session bounce was rejected at the 1.3300 psych level and the lower-highs trendline, leaving price just under EMA(20) near 1.3296 with RSI(14) around 43.
Support: 1.3273, 1.3250
Resistance: 1.3300, 1.3334, 1.3370
What it said to watch
The FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
An H1 close above 1.3300 psych and the lower-highs trendline would break this week's lower-high sequence. The tuesday high at 1.3334 sits next, near the 50% fib of the week's decline
Failure to hold the 1.3272 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3250 round number
A recovery through 1.3334 would put the weekly open at 1.3370 back in focus
Thursday's US Core PCE at 12:30 UTC is the next scheduled risk after the Fed
Lower highs and lows since Monday; tight base 1.3272–1.3296.
Lower highs have stacked up since Monday's Asia high at 1.3387. Monday's NY open and the Tuesday and Wednesday London sessions drove the slide, as USD firmed on strong US data and GBP exposure was cut ahead of the Budget and FOMC. Twin lows just above the week low at 1.3272 have held since London open, with RSI(14) recovering to ~40 from sub-30 readings. The bounce remains capped at 1.3296, where EMA(20) meets the descending lower-highs trendline, still below the 23.6% retrace of the Mon–Wed decline.
Support: 1.3272, 1.3250
Resistance: 1.3296, 1.3316, 1.3334
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3296 ema20 + tl confluence opens the 38.2% fib at 1.3316, then the tuesday high at 1.3334
Failure to hold the week low at 1.3272 extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3250 round number
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC, Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC and the UK Budget outcome could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday, holding a double test of the week low.
Cable has stepped lower since Monday's 1.3387 Asia-session high. It lost the 1.3370 weekly open, then broke Tuesday's range: the 1.3349 tuesday high and the 1.3302 tuesday low. A fresh week low at 1.3272 printed into the London open as GBP was de-risked ahead of the budget and USD held two-week highs. A second test near 1.3274 late in London held, but price sits below the 1.3295 ema20 and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 38, and every bounce this week has been capped by the falling trendline from Monday's high.
Support: 1.3272, 1.3250
Resistance: 1.3295, 1.3302, 1.3349
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3302 tuesday low and the falling trendline would break the lower-high sequence; the 38.2% fib of the week's leg sits near 1.3316
Failure to hold the 1.3272 week low extends the lower-low pattern toward the 1.3250 psych level
Reclaiming the 1.3349 tuesday high would undo this week's breakdown structure
UK Budget today and the FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's Asia peak.
Cable has printed a clean lower-high sequence since Monday's 1.3387 peak just above the 1.3370 weekly open. The heaviest selling came in early European hours each day, while NY sessions produced only shallow bounces. Today price broke the 1.3305 tuesday low and tagged a new week low at 1.3272 as GBP de-risked into the UK Budget against a firm USD. RSI(14) sits near 29 and price is below both EMAs. Today's day high at 1.3296 lines up with EMA(20) and the lower-high trendline, and it capped the early London bounce.
Support: 1.3272, 1.3250
Resistance: 1.3296, 1.3305, 1.3334
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3272 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3250 round number
Recovery above the 1.3305 tuesday low and the lower-high trendline would break this week's structure; the 1.3334 tuesday high sits near the 50% fib of the weekly decline
UK Budget outcome due today could materially shift this read, with fiscal-slippage risk on one side and a relief bounce on the other
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could reprice USD and alter structure into NY hours
A new price low with a higher RSI(14) low would mark bullish divergence against the downtrend
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's Asia high at 1.3387.
GBPUSD has printed a lower high and a lower low each session since Monday's Asia high at 1.3387. The heaviest legs came during London and NY hours as a firm USD, backed by strong US data, met pre-Budget caution on GBP. Wednesday's London open extended to a 1.3272 week low, and the bounce stalled at the ema20 near 1.3296 below Tuesday's broken 1.3307 low, with RSI(14) in the low 30s and not yet oversold.
Support: 1.32723, 1.3250
Resistance: 1.3296, 1.33068, 1.33342
What it said to watch
UK Budget at 10:00 UTC lands on the current bar; the gilt yield reaction could materially shift this read
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC are a second event risk within the session
Failure to hold the 1.3272 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3250 round number
An H1 close back above the ema20 and the 1.3307 tuesday low would mark the first break in the lower-high sequence
A move through the lower-high line and the 1.3334 tuesday high, near the 61.8% of the Monday high to Wednesday low fib, invalidates the downtrend read
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's 1.3387 high, price capped below EMA(20).
Cable has printed steady lower highs since Monday's 1.3387 high, below the 1.3370 weekly open. Each London session extended the lows as the USD firmed on strong US data and pre-FOMC dollar demand. Today's London open flushed to a new week low at 1.3272 before a bounce to 1.3291, which leaves price just under EMA(20) near 1.3300 and the lower-high trendline. RSI(14) is in the mid-30s.
Support: 1.3272, 1.3250
Resistance: 1.3300, 1.3334, 1.3370
What it said to watch
UK Budget at 10:00 UTC (~1h) could materially shift this read around the 1.3290 range floor
H1 close below the 1.3272 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3250 round number
Reclaiming EMA(20) at 1.3300, then the Tue NY high at 1.3334 (near the 50% fib of the week drop), breaks the lower-high trendline structure; the 1.3370 weekly open sits above
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's Asia high.
GBPUSD has carved a lower-highs sequence since Monday's Asia peak at 1.3387. Monday's London-NY sessions and Tuesday's London session drove most of the ~115-pip Mon–Wed decline, as the dollar firmed on strong US data and pre-FOMC caution. Pullbacks since Tuesday have stalled at or under the ema20, now near 1.3303. London open printed a fresh week low at 1.3272 before a long lower wick lifted price back toward 1.3290, with RSI(14) near 31 and the UK Budget and FOMC ahead.
Support: 1.3272, 1.3250
Resistance: 1.3303, 1.3334, 1.3370
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3334 tue high breaks the lower-highs trendline sequence; the 1.3370 weekly open sits above
Failure to hold the 1.3272 week low extends the Mon–Wed decline toward the 1.3250 round number
Reclaiming the ema20 near 1.3303 would mark the first stall in this week's downtrend
UK Budget at 10:00 UTC and FOMC at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
07:02 UTC
Downtrend, oversold but no reversal signal · RSI 24 · price 1.32777
Lower highs and lower lows since Thursday's 1.3419 high.
Cable has carved lower highs and lower lows from Thursday's 1.3419 peak, with a firm USD and pre-Budget caution behind the slide. The main legs came at Monday's NY open, Tuesday's London open and in today's Asia session, which printed a fresh session low at 1.3277. Rebounds have stalled at or below EMA(20), now near 1.3300, and each one has left a lower high, most recently 1.3334. The move is now pressing into the 1.3250–1.3275 zone with RSI(14) in oversold territory.
Support: 1.3277, 1.3250
Resistance: 1.3301, 1.3334, 1.3370
What it said to watch
UK Budget at 10:00 UTC, during the London session, could materially shift this read; the gilt reaction is the swing factor
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and the 18:30 UTC press conference could reset the structure during NY hours
An H1 close back above the ema20 near 1.3300 and the lower-high trendline would interrupt the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.3277 session low exposes the 1.3250 round number
A move through the 1.3334 lower high would neutralise the downtrend structure, with the 1.3370 weekly open above
Lower highs and lower lows from 1.3387 week high, now at range floor.
Cable has printed lower highs since Monday's 1.3387 week high, below the 1.3370 week open. London drove Monday's and Tuesday's legs lower, and NY rallies to the 1.3334 Tue high faded back under EMA(20) and the lower-high trendline. Asia extended the slide to a 1.3288 day low as USD firmed into FOMC, putting price on the 1.3290–1.3300 floor flagged into the budget, with RSI(14) near 31 and no bullish divergence.
Support: 1.3288, 1.3250
Resistance: 1.3303, 1.3334, 1.3370
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 1.3288 day low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3250 round number
Recovery above EMA(20) near 1.3303 and the 1.3334 Tue high would break the lower-high trendline and reclaim the 38.2% fib
Reclaim of the 1.3370 week open would unwind most of this week's decline
UK Budget at 10:00 UTC and the FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC today could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows below EMA20, at fresh week low.
GBPUSD has printed lower highs every session since the Monday high at 1.3387 and sits about 75 pips under the 1.3370 weekly open. London hours drove the Tuesday leg to 1.3307, and pre-FOMC Dollar short-covering kept bounces capped at the EMA20 and the 1.3334 Tuesday high. Asia has extended to a fresh week low at 1.3294 with RSI(14) near 30. The 1.3275 support zone sits just below.
Support: 1.3294, 1.3275
Resistance: 1.3307, 1.3334, 1.3370
What it said to watch
UK Autumn Budget at 10:00 UTC (~5h). A gilt sell-off could push price through the 1.3294 week low toward the 1.3275 support zone
Failure to hold 1.3294 confirms another lower low in the sequence
H1 close back above the ema20 near 1.3307 and the lower-high line breaks the sequence. Above 1.3334 (tuesday high), the 50% fib near 1.3341 comes into view
FOMC at 18:00 UTC could reverse the Dollar short-covering behind this week's slide
Recovery toward the 1.3370 weekly open would negate the week's lower-high structure
Lower highs and lower lows since Thursday's 1.3419 high.
GBPUSD has printed a clean lower-high sequence since Thursday's 1.3419 peak. Monday's Asia high at 1.3387 faded below the weekly open, and Tuesday's London and NY sessions pushed through 1.3327 to a 1.32975 week low in early Wednesday Asia, as pre-FOMC Dollar short-covering and firm US data drove the slide. Price is compressing just under EMA(20) near 1.3310 and the lower-high trendline. RSI(14) sits in the low-mid 30s without an oversold reading, and Asia ranges have tightened to under 10 pips.
Support: 1.32975
Resistance: 1.3310, 1.33342, 1.33697
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.32975 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3275-1.3290 area flagged in the digest
H1 close back above the lower-high trendline and the ema20 near 1.3310, then the 1.3334 tuesday high, would break the lower-high structure
UK Autumn Budget at 10:00 UTC (~6h) is the near-term swing factor, with gilt reaction key
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and 18:30 UTC presser could reverse or extend the Dollar bid
Recovery to the 1.3370 weekly open would put price back at the 61.8% retracement of the Thursday-Wednesday drop
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday, compressing at week low.
GBPUSD has stepped lower from the weekly open at 1.3370 as Dollar short-covering ahead of the FOMC offsets hawkish UK data. London sessions drove both legs down, Monday to 1.3327 and Tuesday to 1.3307, while the NY bounce to the Tue NY high at 1.3334 failed and the lower-highs line has capped every rally. Price is pinned below EMA(20) near 1.3311 and compressing above the week low at 1.32975, with ranges narrowing in the Asian range and RSI(14) holding in the mid-30s, not oversold.
Support: 1.32975, 1.3275
Resistance: 1.3311, 1.33342, 1.33697
What it said to watch
UK Budget at 10:00 UTC (~7h) could materially shift this read, especially via any gilt-yield reaction
Failure to hold the 1.32975 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3250-1.3275 dip zone
H1 close above the lower-highs line and EMA(20) near 1.3311 would be the first break in this week's structure
Recovery through the Tue NY high at 1.3334 would put the slide fib 38.2% (~1.3344) and the weekly open at 1.3370 in play
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and presser 18:30 UTC could reverse or extend the pre-Fed Dollar bid
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday, fresh low below Tuesday's base.
GBP/USD has printed lower highs and lower lows since Monday's 1.3370 open. London sessions drove both legs lower, and Tuesday's NY bounce to 1.3334 faded after firm US durables and confidence data. Price has slipped below Tuesday's low near 1.3303 to a new low at 1.3299 in the Asian session, under a falling EMA(20) near 1.3315 that capped Tuesday's rebounds, with RSI(14) near 31 and not yet oversold, as pre-Fed USD demand and Budget caution leave the 1.3290 range floor as the next reference.
Support: 1.32994, 1.3290, 1.3275
Resistance: 1.33027, 1.3315, 1.33342
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above Tuesday's low at 1.3303 would mark the push to a new low as a false break
Failure to hold the 1.3290 range floor exposes the 1.3250–1.3275 support zone flagged in the fiscal-risk scenario
Recovery through the EMA(20) and the lower-highs trendline, then above Tuesday's NY high at 1.3334 (near the 38.2% decline fib at 1.3345), would break the lower-high sequence
UK Budget around 10:00 UTC and the FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC Wednesday could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday; tight Asia compression above week low.
GBPUSD has printed lower highs and lower lows since Monday's 1.3387 high. The weekly open at 1.3370 gave way in Monday's London session, the NY open extended the slide to 1.3327, and firm US data plus pre-Fed USD buying drove Tuesday's grind to a 1.3302 week low. Price sits below EMA(20) near 1.3315, which capped Tuesday's NY high at 1.3334, while RSI(14) holds near 39 and ranges compress in Asia ahead of the UK Budget and FOMC.
Support: 1.33022, 1.3290
Resistance: 1.3315, 1.33342, 1.33697
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3302 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3290 range floor
Recovery above 1.3334 (Tuesday's NY high and the 38.2% fib) breaks the lower-high trendline
Reclaim of the 1.3370 weekly open would undo this week's downtrend read
UK Budget ~10:00 UTC and FOMC at 18:00 UTC today could materially shift this read