21:07 UTC
Downtrend, oversold at June low · RSI 26 · price 0.56334
Lower highs and lower lows since the Aug 21 high; testing June low.
Five straight down weeks from the 0.5988 Aug 21 high have formed a chain of lower highs under a falling trendline. The slide has erased nearly all of the late-June to August rally and is now testing the 0.5626 June low, below a falling EMA(20) and EMA(50). The September leg tracked US yields and the hawkish-Fed dollar bid rather than NZ data, and RSI near 26 is oversold for the first time since June; the 0.5687 swing high and 0.5750 lower high are the nearer pivots, with the 50% fib and EMA(50) converging near 0.5805.
Support: 0.5626, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5687, 0.5750, 0.5805
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 0.5626 June low confirms a lower low and exposes the 0.5600 round number
- A hold of the June low followed by a close above the 0.5687 swing high would mark the first higher-low attempt since August
- Close above the 0.5750 lower high clears the falling trendline and shifts focus to the 0.5805 ema50/50% fib zone
- US NFP Fri Oct 2 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read via yields and Fed hike pricing
- NZIER QSBO Oct 5 and any repricing of RBNZ Oct 28 hike odds from ~80%