Lower lows into NY, tight post-rollover consolidation.
London broke the asian low at 0.5611. NY extended under 0.5600 after strong claims and ISM prices data, with the USD at a yearly high, printing a ny low at 0.5593 and a thin rollover low at 0.5592. Since then the pair has traded a 0.5600–0.5604 consolidation, capped by the late ny high at 0.5609 and pinned at the 0.5600 psych handle, with ATR compressed near 4 pips.
Support: 0.55933, 0.55922
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.5609, 0.5611
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5592 rollover low and 0.5593 ny low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery above the 0.5609 late ny high and the 0.5611 asian low breaks the consolidation and reclaims the 0.5600 psych handle
Asia session opening with thin NZD data; US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC is the main event risk for this read
Bounce failing in the lower part of the Asia high to day low fib keeps the downtrend structure intact
Lower highs since London; tight 0.5600–0.5607 compression in early Asia.
The 0.5618–0.5637 Asian range gave way into London, and NY extended the slide to 0.5593 as USD held 18-month highs, with a falling trendline of lower highs capping each bounce. The rollover dip to the 0.5592 day low was bought back above 0.5600 psych, and price is now compressing just under the 38.2% retrace at 0.5604 in thin early-Asia trade.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55922
Resistance: 0.5609, 0.56123, 0.56224
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5609 late-NY high breaks the falling trendline; the 0.5612 swing high and 0.5622 London high sit above
Loss of 0.5600 psych and the 0.5592 day low resumes the lower-low chain
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3%) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the Asian high; tight consolidation just above 0.5600 in early Asia.
The window shows lower highs from the 0.5637 Asian high. London broke below the Asian range, and NY extended the move to a 0.5593 ny low as USD pushed to 18-month highs after firm jobless claims. Price is now compressing just above the 0.5600 round number in early Asia, under a 0.5609 late high, and the thin-liquidity rollover dip to 0.5592 was quickly reclaimed.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55933
Resistance: 0.5609, 0.56224
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5593 ny low extends the lower-low sequence beneath the 0.5600 round number
Reclaim of the 0.5609 late high and a break of the lower-high line would stall the descending structure, with the 0.5622 ny high next
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
22:47 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 50 · price 0.56018
Lower highs from the Asian high; tight post-NY consolidation above the 0.5593 NY low.
London broke the Asian range low and NY extended the slide to the 0.5593 NY low as USD firmed on the claims beat and DXY's push through 102.00, leaving a clean lower-highs sequence from 0.5637. Early Asia has compressed around the 0.5600 round number beneath the 0.5609 late high and descending trendline. RSI(14) is flat at 50.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55933
Resistance: 0.5609, 0.56123, 0.56224
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5609 late high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the sequence; the 0.5612 lower high and 0.5622 london high sit above
Failure to hold the 0.5600 round number and a break of the 0.5593 ny low extends the lower-low chain; the 0.5592 rollover wick was a spread print
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) and AHE could materially shift this read
22:32 UTC
Downtrend, now coiling near lows · RSI 46 · price 0.56025
Lower highs and lower lows; tight 0.5593–0.5609 range into early Asia.
London broke below the Asian range low at 0.5611, and NY extended the lower-high chain from the 0.5622 swing high to a session low at 0.5593 as the dollar stayed bid on US data. Price is now pinned around the 0.5600 psych level in early Asia, just under EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral near 46. A descending trendline from 0.5622 capped the late NY high at 0.5609.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55933
Resistance: 0.5609, 0.56224
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5609 late ny high breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 0.5600 psych level exposes the 0.5593 session low; the 0.5592 rollover wick is spread-driven
Break below the 0.5593 session low extends the lower-low sequence
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC and moves in US yields could materially shift this read
Lower highs have stepped down from the London high at 0.5622, and NY selling after the ISM data printed a 0.5593 session low as USD strength dominated. The late-NY bounce saw rejection at 0.5609 (late NY high, near the 61.8% of the NY swing fib), with 0.5612 the prior lower high. Early Asia is now pivoting on the 0.5600 round number after a thin rollover spike to 0.5592; RSI(14) is neutral near 46.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55933
Resistance: 0.5609, 0.56123, 0.56224
What it said to watch
M15 close above the lower-highs trendline and the 0.5609 late NY high breaks the lower-high chain; 0.5612 lower high is next
Failure to hold the 0.5600 round number exposes the 0.5593 session low; a close below confirms a lower low
Clearance of the 0.5622 London high would invalidate the intraday downtrend read
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.5622; double base 0.5593–0.5595.
NZDUSD bled from the 0.5637 Asian high through London and NY as USD pushed to 18-month highs. The 14:00 UTC ISM release extended the slide to the 0.5593 session low, which held twice. Price now sits at 0.5605 in thin early-Asia trade, pressing the descending trendline off the 0.5622 london high and capped so far by the 0.5609 late high. A rollover dip to 0.5592 near the 21:00 UTC slot was fully retraced.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55933
Resistance: 0.5609, 0.56123, 0.56224
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5609 late high and the descending trendline opens the 0.5612 lower high, the fib 61.8% zone
Failure at the trendline and a loss of the 0.5600 round number puts the 0.5593 session low back in focus
A break of the 0.5593 session low resumes the lower-low sequence
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.5622; post-NY range 0.5600–0.5609.
A steady slide from the 0.5637 Asian high printed lower highs at the 0.5622 london high and the 0.5612 lower high. The NY low at 0.5593 was tested three times as the firm USD, rather than NZ data, set the tone. Late NY then held a tight 0.5600–0.5609 band above the 0.5600 round number, capped by the late ny high. The thin 21:00 UTC rollover dip to 0.5592 was reclaimed, and price now sits at the 38.2% of the london high to ny low fib, just under EMA50.
Support: 0.5600, 0.5593
Resistance: 0.5609, 0.5612, 0.5622
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.5593 ny low resumes the lower-low chain beneath the 0.5600 round number
Close above the 0.5609 late ny high and the 0.5612 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and targets the 0.5622 london high
Asia session open is thin; rollover spikes like the 21:00 UTC dip can distort the lows
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC is the next major USD risk for this read
Lower-high chain from Asian high; tight late-NY range 0.5600–0.5609.
Lower highs since the 0.5637 Asian high. The slide extended to a 0.5593 session low by 18:00 UTC as the USD firmed on the hot ISM prices paid, and the NY high at 0.5618 was capped on the descending trendline. Price has since based above the 0.5600 psych level, held under a late-NY cap at 0.5609 with the 0.5612 swing high just above, and the 0.5592 rollover dip was a spread spike that has been recovered.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55933
Resistance: 0.5609, 0.56123, 0.56183
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5609 late-NY cap and descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain, exposing the 0.5612 swing high and 0.5618 NY high
Loss of the 0.5600 psych level reopens the 0.5593 session low
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read; thin Asia session conditions until then
Lower highs from the 0.5637 Asian high; base at 0.5593-0.5600.
London and NY extended lower from the 0.5637 Asian high as USD firmed on the 197K claims print and hot ISM prices paid. That carved a lower-highs sequence into the 0.5593 NY low. The late-NY bounce stalled at 0.5609, below the 61.8% retracement of the drop, and the daily rollover gapped price back under 0.5600 psych in thin liquidity.
Support: 0.5593
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.5609, 0.5612
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5612 swing high breaks the lower-highs trendline
Failure to reclaim 0.5600 psych keeps the 0.5593 ny low under pressure; acceptance below it extends the lower-low sequence
Rollover-hour spreads distort the gap low; Asia session price action gives a cleaner read
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) is the main event risk to this read
Lower highs from London; double test of 0.5593 low, tight post-NY range 0.5600–0.5609.
Firm US claims and a hot ISM prices print kept USD bid. NZDUSD lost the Asian range low at 0.5611 into London, and NY tested the 0.5593 session low twice. The bounce has stalled under the 0.5609 late high in thin post-NY trade, with price sitting just under EMA20 and lower highs from the 0.5622 london high still intact.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55933
Resistance: 0.5609, 0.56123, 0.56224
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5612 neckline completes the double test of the session low and breaks the descending highs
Failure to hold the 0.5600 round number reopens the 0.5593 session low
Rejection at the 0.5609 late high keeps the range capped
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence at 21:00 UTC and Friday's NFP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.5622, equal lows at 0.5593-94, compressing into the Asia handover.
London broke the Asian range low near 0.5611, and NY extended to a 0.5593 day low after the hot ISM prices paid lifted the USD. Equal lows at 0.5594/0.5593 held. The late-NY drift has retraced to the 50% fib of the 0.5622–0.5593 leg and is capped at 0.5609, with ATR compressing to about 5 pips.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55933
Resistance: 0.5609, 0.56123, 0.56224
What it said to watch
A close above the 0.5609 late-NY cap and the 0.5612 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence, with the 0.5622 swing high next
Failure to hold the 0.5600 round number reopens the 0.5593 day low; a break there extends the lower-low chain
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence at 21:00 UTC and Friday's NFP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.5622; double test of 0.5593 held, higher lows since.
London broke the Asian low near 0.5618, and NY extended through the 0.5600 psych level after firm US claims and hot ISM prices lifted the USD. The day low at 0.5593 held on two tests (15:45 and 18:00 UTC), and price has built higher lows into late NY, capped at the 0.5609 late ny high. Price is around 46% back into the 0.5622 swing high to day low move.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55933
Resistance: 0.5609, 0.56123, 0.56224
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5612 neckline completes the double bottom and opens 0.5622 swing high
Rejection at the 0.5609 late ny high keeps the downtrend read intact
Loss of 0.5600 psych, then the 0.5593 day low, resumes the lower-low chain
Break of the late NY rising support line shifts the read back to the downtrend
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence at 21:00 UTC, early Asia session; NFP Fri 12:30 UTC
Lower highs from 0.5637 Asian high; double base at 0.5593.
NZD/USD has stepped lower all day from the 0.5637 Asian high. The firm US claims print and hot ISM prices paid drove a slide to a 0.5593 day low, which held twice during NY hours. A quiet late-NY grind has retraced half of the 0.5622 london high-to-low leg and is now pressing the falling trendline and EMA50 near 0.5608.
Support: 0.5600, 0.5593
Resistance: 0.5608, 0.5612, 0.5622
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5612 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and confirms the double bottom off 0.5593
Rejection at the 0.5608 trendline keeps the downtrend intact; failure to hold the 0.5600 round number reopens the 0.5593 day low
Recovery through 0.5622 london high would take price back toward the Asian range
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence at 21:00 UTC during thin Asia-open liquidity; Friday NFP is the larger risk for this read
Lower highs from London high; double bottom at NY low.
London broke below the Asian range lows near 0.5618, and NY extended the slide to the 0.5593 NY low as USD firmed on the claims beat and hot ISM prices paid; two tests there formed a double bottom. The late-NY recovery is pressing 0.5608, where the falling trendline and the 50% retrace of the 0.5622–0.5593 leg converge. RSI(14) is near 59 and price sits on the EMA50.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55933
Resistance: 0.56085, 0.56123, 0.56224
What it said to watch
M15 close above the trendline near 0.5608 opens the 0.5612 spike high, then the 0.5622 London high
Failure back under the 0.5600 round number puts the 0.5593 NY low double bottom back in play
Fedspeak (Williams, Cook) and ANZ-Roy Morgan confidence at 21:00 UTC could shift this read; NFP Fri 12:30 UTC is the larger risk
Lower highs from 0.5622; twin day lows at 0.5593, 0.5600 reclaimed.
Kiwi sold off from the 0.5637 Asian high through London and NY. Firm US claims and the 77.9 ISM prices-paid print kept the dollar bid, and the pair tested the 0.5593 day low twice before a late-NY bounce reclaimed the 0.5600 psych level. Price now sits near the 50% fib of the 0.5622–0.5593 drop, under the 0.5612 lower high and the falling trendline. The double bottom stays unconfirmed below that neckline, and RSI(14) is neutral near 54.
Support: 0.5600, 0.5593
Resistance: 0.5612, 0.5618, 0.5622
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5612 lower high and trendline confirms the double bottom and exposes the 0.5618 ny high, then the 0.5622 london high
Slip back below 0.5600 psych puts the 0.5593 day low back in play; a break there resumes the lower-low sequence
Bowman, Williams and Cook Fedspeak (19:00–19:30 UTC) is landing on the current bars and could shift the read
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence at 21:00 UTC; US NFP Friday 12:30 UTC is the larger risk
Lower highs since 11:45 UTC, flat floor 0.5593-0.5595.
The Asian range of 0.5611-0.5637 gave way at London open. NY then pressed the slide to a 0.5593 session low as firm claims and hot ISM prices paid lifted the USD, with three tests holding the 0.5593-0.5595 floor. The late-NY bounce is now retesting the falling line and the 50% fib of the 0.5622-0.5593 drop near 0.5609, with EMA50 overhead and RSI(14) neutral at 54.
Support: 0.5603, 0.5593
Resistance: 0.5609, 0.5612, 0.5618
What it said to watch
M15 close above the falling line and the 17:30 high at 0.5612 breaks the NY lower-high sequence, exposing the 0.5618 ny high
Rejection at 0.5609 followed by loss of the ema20 near 0.5603 returns focus to the 0.5593 session low; a break there extends the lower-low chain
Williams and Cook Fedspeak (19:30 UTC) and ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (21:00 UTC) could shift this read
London cut through the Asian range low near 0.5611 and the 0.5600 round number, capped by a 0.5622 london high. After firm claims and hot ISM prices paid lifted the dollar, NY printed lower highs at 0.5618 and 0.5612 and twice held the 0.5593 day low. Late NY now sits at the 38.2% fib of that leg, near 0.5604.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55933
Resistance: 0.56044, 0.56123, 0.56224
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5612 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline and confirms the double bottom
Failure at the 38.2% fib and a return under the 0.5600 round number re-exposes the day low
Break of the 0.5593 day low extends the lower-low sequence
Fed speakers Williams and Cook at 19:30 UTC could materially shift this read
NZ ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence at 21:00 UTC
19:04 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near 0.5600 · RSI 49 · price 0.56028
London broke the 0.5618–0.5637 Asian range lower. NY extended the slide to a 0.5593 day low as the claims beat and hot ISM prices-paid kept US yields in charge. Late in the NY session price is consolidating around the 0.5600 round number, pinned at EMA20 and capped by the lower-highs line from the 0.5622 london high, with RSI(14) neutral near 49.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55933
Resistance: 0.56123, 0.56224
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5593 day low resumes the lower-low sequence beneath the 0.5600 round number
Close above the 0.5612 lower high clears the lower-highs line and opens a path back toward the 0.5622 london high
Bowman (19:00 UTC), Williams and Cook (19:30 UTC) could move US yields and shift this read; NZ ANZ-Roy Morgan confidence at 21:00 UTC
NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) is the next major volatility event for the pair
Lower highs off 0.5622, lows flattening at 0.5593.
Asian range broke lower in London, and NY extended the slide after firm US claims and hot ISM prices, printing a session low at 0.5593. Lower highs at the 0.5622 London high and the 0.5612 lower high cap rebounds. Price is chopping around the 0.5600 psych handle and EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral near 45.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55933
Resistance: 0.56123, 0.56224
What it said to watch
Fed Bowman (19:00 UTC) and Williams/Cook (19:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 0.5593 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the 0.5612 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline, exposing the 0.5622 London high
Lower highs from 0.5622; session low 0.5593 tested twice.
NZD slid out of the 0.5611–0.5637 Asian range at the London open. In NY, the jobless claims beat and hot ISM prices paid lifted USD and broke the London low at 0.5599, with lower highs at the 0.5622 swing high, 0.5618 and the 0.5612 lower high marking the descending trendline. Late in the NY session, price sits just under the 0.5600 round number, with the session low at 0.5593 holding on two tests and ATR(14) near 7 pips.
Support: 0.55933, 0.5590
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56123, 0.56224
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5600 round number and the 0.5612 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline
Failure to hold the 0.5593 session low exposes the 0.5590 round number
Fed Bowman (19:00 UTC) and Williams/Cook (19:30 UTC) could materially shift this read via US yields
NZ ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence at 21:00 UTC adds NZ-specific risk
A retrace toward the 50–61.8% fib of the 0.5622 swing high to 0.5593 leg meets the lower-highs trendline
Lower highs since 14:30 UTC; NY afternoon range 0.5593–0.5612 below 0.5600.
NZD lost the 0.5600 round number during NY hours after the hot ISM prices paid print and firm jobless claims lifted the USD, setting a session low at 0.5593. Since then it has held a 0.5593–0.5612 range under lower highs, with the 17:30 UTC spike rejected at the range top. RSI(14) near 39, not stretched.
Support: 0.55933
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56075, 0.56123
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5600 round number and the 0.5607 swing high breaks the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 0.5593 session low extends the downtrend to fresh lows
Fed Bowman (19:00 UTC) and Williams/Cook (19:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence at 21:00 UTC adds NZ-specific risk
Asian range broken lower, LH/LL chain through NY, price at day low.
The 0.5618–0.5637 Asian range gave way in early London. Firm US claims and the ISM prices-paid jump then pushed the slide through the 0.5600 round number to a 0.5594 day low in NY. Bounces have stalled at successively lower highs (0.5622 swing high, then 0.5612), the latter near the 38.2% of the day decline, and price is back at the day low late in the NY session with RSI(14) near 33.
Support: 0.55938, 0.5590
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56123, 0.56224
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5594 day low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5590 psych level
Reclaim of the 0.5600 round number and a break of the lower-highs trendline near the 0.5612 lower high would stall the downtrend read
Close above the 0.5622 swing high (61.8% of the day decline) invalidates the intraday lower-high structure
Fed's Bowman (19:00 UTC) and Williams/Cook (19:30 UTC) could materially shift this read; ANZ-Roy Morgan confidence follows at 21:00 UTC
Lower highs from 0.5622, late bounce capped at 61.8%.
The NY session extended the London slide to a 0.5594 session low as the ISM prices-paid beat and firm claims lifted the USD, leaving the lower-highs chain from the 0.5622 London high intact. The late bounce stalled at 0.5612, where the broken Asian low meets the 61.8% retrace, and price is back hovering above the 0.5600 psych handle.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55938
Resistance: 0.5612, 0.56224
What it said to watch
An M15 close above 0.5612 (asian low / 61.8% retrace) breaks the lower-highs trendline and neutralises the downtrend read
A break below the 0.5594 session low confirms a fresh lower-low under the 0.5600 psych handle
Fed's Bowman (19:00 UTC) and Williams/Cook (19:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from London; double bottom at 0.5594–0.5595 with a rebound into the 61.8% retrace.
Late NY: the post-ISM slide set a day low at 0.5594 and a near-equal low at 0.5595, forming a double bottom, with USD firm on hot ISM prices paid and 197K claims. The rebound is now retesting the 61.8% retrace of the 0.5622 london high to 0.5594 leg near 0.5612. It sits just under the lower highs trendline and the 0.5618 ny high.
Support: 0.56081, 0.5600, 0.55938
Resistance: 0.56183, 0.56224
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5618 ny high breaks the lower highs chain and opens the 0.5622 london high
Rejection at the 61.8% fib and trendline near 0.5612–0.5614 keeps the intraday downtrend intact; a slip back below the fib 50% at 0.5608 points to 0.5600 psych
Break of the 0.5594 day low invalidates the double bottom and resumes the downtrend
Fed speakers Bowman 19:00 and Williams/Cook 19:30 UTC could shift US yields and this read
17:17 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through NY · RSI 36 · price 0.55995
Lower highs from 0.5622; London low broken, holding near 0.5600.
Firm US claims and hot ISM prices lifted the dollar during NY hours. NZDUSD broke the 0.5599 London low and printed a session low at 0.5594. Late-NY bounces stalled at the 0.5608 lower high, keeping the lower-highs sequence from 0.5622 intact, with price pinned at the 0.5600 psych handle and RSI(14) near 36, not oversold.
Support: 0.55938
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56075, 0.56183
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5608 lower high and the 0.5600 psych handle would break the lower-highs trendline
Loss of the 0.5594 session low extends the downtrend sequence
Recovery through the 0.5618 ny high invalidates the intraday downtrend read
Fed speakers (Jefferson 17:30, Bowman 19:00, Williams/Cook 19:30 UTC) could materially shift this read via US yields
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence at 21:00 UTC adds NZ-specific event risk into the Asia session
LH/LL chain; London broke the Asian range low, NY extended below 0.5600.
London open broke the 0.5618 Asian range low. NY then capped twice near the 0.5618 ny high before the hot ISM prices paid (77.9 vs 72.3) and a 197K claims print dragged the pair through the 0.5600 psych handle to a 0.55938 session low. The rebound stalled at a 0.56075 lower high near the 50% fib, and price is now holding just above the session low late in the NY session with RSI(14) near 37, not oversold.
Support: 0.55938
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56075, 0.56183
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.56075 lower high breaks the descending trendline and challenges the LH sequence
Failure to hold the 0.55938 session low extends the lower-low chain
Acceptance back above 0.5600 psych shifts the read toward a range under the 0.56183 ny high
Fedspeak (Bowman 19:00, Williams/Cook 19:30 UTC) and ANZ-Roy Morgan confidence at 21:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower-high/lower-low chain since London open, price back on 0.5600 handle.
Lower highs at the 0.5622 London high and the 0.5618 NY lower high, plus firm claims and hot ISM prices lifting USD, pushed NZD/USD through 0.5600 to a 0.5594 day low. The bounce high at 0.5608 met rejection near the 50% retrace and price is back on 0.5600, with RSI(14) near 40 and ATR(14) about 7 pips.
Support: 0.55938
Resistance: 0.56075, 0.56183, 0.56224
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5594 day low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery through the 0.5608 bounce high and the 0.5618 lower high breaks the lower-high chain. The 0.5622 London high caps the session
Fed's Jefferson at 17:30 UTC, then Bowman and Williams/Cook, could shift this read via US yields
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence at 21:00 UTC adds NZ-specific risk into the Asia session
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asian range broke lower.
NZDUSD broke the 0.5618–0.5637 Asian range lower ahead of London and kept printing lower lows. During NY hours, after the hot ISM prices paid print, it dipped through the 0.5600 psych to a 0.5594 session low. The current bounce is stalling at the 0.5608 bounce high, near the 38.2% fib, with the lower-high trendline from the 0.5622 london high and 0.5618 ny high still capping price.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55938
Resistance: 0.56075, 0.56183, 0.56224
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5600 psych puts the 0.5594 session low back in play for another lower low
Break above the 0.5618 ny high and the lower-high trendline would invalidate the intraday downtrend read
Acceptance above the 0.5608 bounce high would extend the retracement toward the 50–61.8% fib zone at 0.5608–0.5612
Fed speakers (Jefferson 17:30, Bowman 19:00, Williams/Cook 19:30 UTC) could shift this read via US yields
16:17 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs intact since Asia · RSI 38 · price 0.56017
LH/LL chain; NY broke the London low, now pausing above 0.5600.
The pair broke below the Asian range and has printed lower highs all day. The ISM prices-paid beat capped NY at the 0.5618 ny high, and the push through the 0.5599 London low reached a 0.5594 session low. Late NY price is pinned just above 0.5600 psych, with RSI(14) near 38 and well clear of oversold.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55938
Resistance: 0.56081, 0.56183, 0.56224
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 0.5600 psych opens a retest of the 0.5594 session low
Recovery through the fib 50% at 0.5608 and the lower highs trendline challenges the LH chain
Close above the 0.5618 ny high, then the 0.5622 london high, invalidates the intraday downtrend read
Fed's Jefferson (17:30 UTC), Bowman (19:00) and Williams/Cook (19:30) could materially shift this read
ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence at 21:00 UTC is NZD-specific event risk
London range 0.5600–0.5622 broken lower in NY, fresh session low.
After the Asia slide from 0.5637, London held a 0.5600–0.5622 range. Firm US claims and hot ISM prices then drove NY through the 0.5600 psych level to a 0.5594 session low. Lower highs at 0.5622 and 0.5618 cap the trendline, and RSI(14) near 32 is soft but not stretched.
Support: 0.55938
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56105, 0.56183
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 0.5600 psych turns the break into a false break
Acceptance below the 0.5594 session low extends the lower-low chain
Rebound into the 38.2% fib at 0.5610 is the first test of supply
Close above the 0.5618 lower high breaks the trendline and the sequence
Fedspeak (Jefferson 17:30, Bowman 19:00, Williams/Cook 19:30 UTC) and ANZ-Roy Morgan confidence at 21:00 UTC could shift this read
Price broke the 0.5618–0.5637 Asian range at the London open. NY hours added a lower high at 0.5618 (ny high) under the 0.5622 london high, then a fresh session low at 0.5597 after the claims beat firmed USD. Price is now pinned at the 0.5600 psych level with RSI(14) near 38, and the 0.5611 swing high caps the latest bounce.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55968
Resistance: 0.56109, 0.56183, 0.56224
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5597 session low extends the lower-low chain
Reclaim of the 0.5611 swing high and the lower-highs trendline near 0.5618 (ny high) would neutralise the downtrend read
Close above the 0.5622 london high invalidates the intraday LH structure
Fed's Jefferson (17:30 UTC), Bowman and Williams/Cook later in NY hours could materially shift this read
ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence at 21:00 UTC is a late-session NZD risk
15:32 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through NY · RSI 38 · price 0.56043
Lower highs from 0.5622; price pressing NY low above the 0.5599 day low.
London broke the asia low at 0.5611 and set the day low at 0.5599. NY rebounds after the claims beat and the hot ISM prices-paid print were rejected at the 0.5618 lower high, below the 0.5622 london high. Price sits at 0.5604 on the ny low, with RSI(14) near 38 and ATR around 6 pips.
Support: 0.5603, 0.5599
Resistance: 0.5611, 0.5618, 0.5622
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.5599 day low and 0.5600 round number confirms a fresh lower low
A reclaim of the 0.5611 asia low and the 0.5618 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence
Fed's Jefferson (17:30 UTC), Bowman (19:00), and Williams and Cook (19:30) could shift USD tone late in NY
ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence at 21:00 UTC is NZD headline risk after the NY close
Asian range broken lower at London open; lower highs into a 0.5599–0.5622 consolidation.
London opened with a break of the 0.5611–0.5637 Asian range low and extended to a 0.5599 day low through the 0.5600 round number. Firm US jobless claims and hot ISM prices kept the USD bid, and NY rallies have stalled at lower highs near 0.5618 under the 0.5622 swing high. Price is now chopping just above the 0.5603 NY low, below the broken Asian low at 0.5611, with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 0.5603, 0.5599
Resistance: 0.5611, 0.5618, 0.5622
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5599 day low confirms a lower-low and clears the 0.5600 round number
Reclaim of the 0.5611 Asian low, then a close above the 0.5618 lower highs and 0.5622 swing high, breaks the descending sequence
Repeated holds at the 0.5603 NY low keep the consolidation read intact into London close
Fedspeak from Jefferson (17:30 UTC), Bowman (19:00), and Williams/Cook (19:30) could materially shift this read
ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence at 21:00 UTC is an NZD-specific risk during Asia
Lower highs inside 0.5605–0.5622 band after London broke below the Asian range.
London broke below the Asian range and set the session low at 0.5599 as USD firmed on yields. The NY bounce stalled at the 0.5618 ny highs, the 50% fib, with a rejection after the ISM prices-paid beat; price is back at 0.5607 near the 0.5605 ny low. Lower highs from the 0.5622 london high are capping, and price sits below both EMAs.
Support: 0.56049, 0.55989
Resistance: 0.5618, 0.56224, 0.5625
What it said to watch
Break of the 0.5605 ny low exposes the 0.5599 session low and the 0.5600 round number
M15 close above the 0.5622 london high breaks the lower-highs line and brings the 0.5625 pivot into view
Fed's Jefferson (17:30 UTC), Bowman (19:00), Williams and Cook (19:30) could materially shift this read
ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence at 21:00 UTC is a late-session NZD risk
Post-selloff compression: rising lows from 0.5599, lower highs below 0.5622.
London took out the Asian low and extended the slide to a 0.5599 day low, a brief false break of 0.5600 that was reclaimed within the bar. Mid-NY session, price is compressing between rising lows near 0.5608 and lower highs under the 0.5622 london high. Firm US claims and hot ISM prices paid did not break the floor, and price is sitting just under EMA50 with RSI(14) neutral near 56.
Support: 0.56077, 0.55989
Resistance: 0.56224, 0.5625
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5622 london high breaks the lower-highs sequence and exposes the 0.5625 pivot from the broken floor zone
Loss of the 0.5608 rising lows reopens the 0.5599 day low and the 0.5600 round number
Fed speakers from 17:30 UTC (Jefferson, Bowman, Williams, Cook) could resolve the compression either way
Lower highs inside a 0.5599–0.5622 range after London broke the Asian low.
London cut through the Asian low near 0.5618 on the firm-USD, high-yield backdrop. It printed a session low at 0.5599, a brief false break of the 0.5600 psych level. NY has since compressed, with a lower high at 0.5618 under the 0.5622 NY high, both capping near the 50–61.8% fib retrace of the Asian-high-to-session-low move, while RSI(14) sits flat around 51.
Support: 0.56047, 0.55989
Resistance: 0.56179, 0.56224, 0.56374
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5605 ny swing low exposes the 0.5599 session low and 0.5600 psych
Close above the 0.5622 ny high breaks the lower-high trendline and turns focus to the 0.5637 asian high
Fed speakers from 17:30 UTC (Jefferson, Bowman, Williams, Cook) could materially shift this read
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence at 21:00 UTC is NZD event risk late in the window
14:17 UTC
Downtrend, compressing after London low · RSI 46 · price 0.56106
Lower highs from 0.5622 against higher lows from 0.5599; NY range 0.5608–0.5622.
London broke the asian low at 0.5618 and printed a london low at 0.5599. The bounce stalled at the 0.5622 swing high, near the 61.8% retrace of the overnight decline. In NY, firm claims and hot ISM prices paid fed a USD bid that capped the 13:45 pop at the former asian low, leaving price coiled between lower highs and higher lows above the 0.5608 ny low.
Support: 0.56077, 0.55989
Resistance: 0.56179, 0.56224
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5622 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and the 61.8% cap
Loss of the 0.5608 ny low breaks the higher-lows line and reopens the 0.5599 london low and the 0.5600 round number
Fedspeak from 17:30 UTC (Jefferson, Bowman, Williams, Cook) could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 0.5599 day low, capped below 0.5622 session high.
Asia broke lower from the 0.5637 asia high and London extended the slide to a 0.5599 day low, with USD bid on firm yields. Since then the day low has held and price has printed higher lows at 0.5605 and 0.5608, the latter after the strong claims print. The bounce has stalled below the 0.5622 session high near the 61.8% fib, leaving RSI(14) neutral around 50 at the ISM bar.
Support: 0.56077, 0.55989
Resistance: 0.56224, 0.56374
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read in the current bar
Break below the 0.5608 higher low and trendline exposes the 0.5599 day low and 0.5600 round number
M15 close above the 0.5622 session high and 61.8% fib reopens the 0.5625 pivot, with the 0.5637 asia high above
Fedspeak from Jefferson, Bowman, Williams and Cook at 17:30–19:30 UTC adds NY-session risk
Lower highs from the Asian high; tight range after a London low at 0.5599.
London broke below the Asian range and set a session low at 0.5599. That extended the lower-highs sequence while USD stayed bid on firm yields and the claims beat. The bounce was rejected at the 0.5622 swing high, right at the 61.8% fib, and early NY is now coiling around 0.5610, above the 0.5605 swing low and below EMA20, with RSI(14) near 46.
Support: 0.56047, 0.55989
Resistance: 0.56224, 0.56374
What it said to watch
US ISM Manufacturing plus Waller at 14:00 UTC, about 15 min out, could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 0.5599 session low confirms a fresh lower low under 0.5600
Close above the 0.5622 swing high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 0.5637 Asian high back in view
Failure to hold the 0.5605 swing low exposes the session low
13:32 UTC
Downtrend, bounce faded · RSI 48 · price 0.56091
Lower highs below the broken Asian range; holding a higher low at 0.5605.
London broke below the Asian low at 0.5618 and swept under 0.5600 to a session low at 0.5599. The rebound stalled at the 0.5622 swing high, just above the broken Asian low and under the descending trendline, and the US jobless claims beat at 12:30 UTC pushed price back to about 0.5609. That is near the 61.8% level of the bounce fib, with a higher low at 0.5605 still intact.
Support: 0.56047, 0.55989
Resistance: 0.56181, 0.56224, 0.56374
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid plus Waller at 14:00 UTC, about 30 min out, could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 0.5605 higher low exposes the 0.5599 session low and the 0.5600 round number
M15 close above the 0.5622 swing high and descending trendline reopens the asian low-to-asian high band, 0.5618–0.5637
Lower high at 0.5622 under broken Asian low; 0.5599–0.5622 range since 10:00 UTC.
London broke the Asian range low near 0.5618 and printed a 0.5599 session low. The bounce was rejected at 0.5622, a lower high at the 61.8% fib of the 0.5637 asian high to session low leg. The beat on US jobless claims (197K vs 200K f/c) left the pair drifting back toward the 0.5605 swing low, in line with the firm-USD, heavy-NZD backdrop.
Support: 0.56047, 0.55989
Resistance: 0.56224, 0.56374
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 0.5605 swing low puts the 0.5599 session low and the 0.5600 handle back in play
M15 close above the 0.5622 lower high breaks the descending trendline and challenges the downtrend read
Recovery toward the 0.5637 asian high would reverse the London breakdown
Lower low at 0.5599 in London, then higher low at 0.5605; NY trading below the 0.5622 bounce high.
London extended the slide from the 0.5620s range and briefly broke 0.5600, setting a session low at 0.5599, before a false break and rebound to the 0.5622 bounce high. Since the claims beat at the NY open (197K vs 200K f/c), price has faded to 0.5613, near the 38.2% of the rebound fib and above the 0.5605 higher low.
Support: 0.56047, 0.55989
Resistance: 0.56224, 0.56285
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing (f/c 55) and Prices Paid at 14:00 UTC, plus Waller, could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 0.5605 higher low reopens the session low at 0.5599 and the 0.5600 round number
M15 close above the 0.5622 bounce high puts the 0.5628 range top back in play
Break of the higher lows trendline below the 61.8% rebound fib (~0.5608) negates the rebound structure
Asian range broken lower; higher low at 0.5605, rebound capped at the 61.8% retrace.
London broke the 0.5618–0.5637 Asian range lower and ran to a 0.5599 session low as 24-year-high US yields kept NZD heavy, then put in a higher low at 0.5605. The bounce stalled at the 0.5622 swing high, the 61.8% fib of the Asian high-to-low drop, and price is back under the Asian low and EMA50 in the first hour of NY.
Support: 0.56123, 0.56047, 0.55989
Resistance: 0.56181, 0.56224, 0.56374
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5622 swing high reclaims the Asian low and 61.8% fib, opening a path toward the 0.5637 Asian high
Failure at the 0.5612 swing low and the 0.5605 higher low exposes the 0.5599 session low and the 0.5600 round number
US ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower lows into London; higher low at 0.5605, bounce capped near 0.5622.
London broke below the 0.5618 asian low and printed a 0.5599 session low under the 0.5600 round number. USD stayed bid on 24-year-high yields. The bounce off the 0.5605 higher low saw rejection at 0.5622, the bounce high at the 61.8% fib of the Asia-to-low drop, and price is back near 0.5614 into US jobless claims.
Support: 0.56047, 0.55989
Resistance: 0.56181, 0.56224, 0.56374
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5622 bounce high puts price back over the asian low and exposes the 0.5637 asian high
Failure to hold the 0.5605 higher low reopens the 0.5599 session low and the sub-0.5600 area
US Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC, current bar), ISM Manufacturing and Waller (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower; higher low at 0.5605, rejection at 0.5622.
London broke the asian low at 0.5611 and swept 0.5600 to a session low at 0.5599, then printed a higher low at 0.5605 before NY hours. The pre-NY spike to 0.5622 stalled at the 61.8% fib and faded to 0.5616. USD stays firm on 24-year-high Treasury yields, so the 0.5600 handle remains in play.
Support: 0.5611, 0.56047, 0.55989
Resistance: 0.56224, 0.56374
What it said to watch
Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC lands on the next bar and could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.5622 spike high clears the 61.8% fib and puts the 0.5637 asian high in view
Failure to hold the 0.5605 higher low re-exposes the 0.5599 session low
ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC are the second volatility window of the NY session
London false break below 0.5600, then a higher low and rally into the 61.8% retrace.
London stretched the slide from the 0.5637 Asia high to a 0.5599 London low, a brief false break of 0.5600. Price then printed a 0.5605 higher low and rallied into the first hour before NY. The 0.5622 session high sits on the 61.8% of the Asia high–London low fib, and price is holding just above ema50 near 0.5618 despite a firm USD on record long-end yields.
Support: 0.5618, 0.56047, 0.55989
Resistance: 0.56224, 0.56285, 0.56374
What it said to watch
US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.5622 session high / 61.8% fib opens the 0.5628 lower high and the 0.5637 Asia high
Failure to hold ema50 near 0.5618, then the 0.5605 higher low, reopens the 0.5599 London low
11:47 UTC
Downtrend, stalling into a London range · RSI 52 · price 0.56151
Lower highs from Asia into London; London range 0.5599–0.5617 with a higher low at 0.5605.
London broke the Asian low near 0.5618 and swept the 0.5600 round number to a 0.5599 session low as firm US yields kept NZD heavy. Price has since held a 0.5605 higher low and is pressing the 0.5617 london high, which coincides with the 61.8% of the London leg fib. RSI(14) is neutral near 52 and ATR(14) is about 5.5 pips.
Support: 0.5605, 0.5599
Resistance: 0.5617, 0.5625
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.5617 london high reclaims the Asian low and opens the 0.5625 pivot.
A break of the 0.5605 higher low re-exposes the 0.5599 session low and the 0.5600 round number.
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM at 14:00 UTC in the first hours of NY could materially shift this read.
LH/LL chain since Asia; London bounce off 0.5599 capped at 0.5615 lower high.
Late London: NZD has slid from the 0.5637 Asia high on firm US yields and election risk premium. A dip to a 0.5599 session low briefly broke the 0.5600 handle and was reclaimed, but the bounce stalled at a 0.5615 lower high near the 38.2% fib. Price is now back at the 0.5604 swing low, below EMA20/50, with ATR(14) about 5 pips.
Support: 0.56044, 0.55989
Resistance: 0.56151, 0.5625, 0.56374
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.5599 session low makes the 0.5600 break a lower-low rather than a false break
Close above the 0.5615 lower high and descending trendline would break the LH chain, with 0.5625 pivot next
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (first hour of NY) and ISM/Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia high at 0.5637 marks the top of today's selloff and the fib anchor
LH/LL sequence since the Asian-session break; bounce off 0.5600 sweep capped at 0.5615.
The Asian-session break below 0.5618 extended through London, which swept 0.5600 to a day low at 0.5599 before reclaiming the round number. The bounce stalled at the 0.5615 lower high, near the 38.2% retracement of the drop. NZD is tracking firm US yields and price sits below both EMAs.
Support: 0.56044, 0.55989
Resistance: 0.56151, 0.56172, 0.5625
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5615 lower high and the 0.5617 london high breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 0.5604 london low exposes the 0.5599 day low and the 0.5600 round number
A reclaim of the 0.5625 pivot would put price back inside the earlier Asian range
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Asia; London false break under 0.5600 reclaimed.
London extended the Asia-session slide and dipped below 0.5600 to the 0.55989 swing low. Price then reclaimed the level and broke the falling trendline, with NZD still heavy on firm US yields despite the China PMI beats. Price is now stalling at the 61.8% selloff fib, at the 0.5615 rebound high, with the 0.56172 London high just above.
Support: 0.5605, 0.55989
Resistance: 0.56151, 0.56172, 0.5625
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.56172 london high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 0.5625 pivot
Slip back under the 0.5605 london shelf puts the 0.55989 swing low and 0.5600 back in play
US jobless claims 12:30 UTC and ISM/Waller 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read into the NY open
10:47 UTC
Downtrend, bounce off 0.5600 · RSI 51 · price 0.56117
Lower highs since 0.5664; London break below 0.5600 reclaimed.
London extended the late-Asia breakdown below the Asian range, dipping under 0.5600 psych to a session low at 0.55989 before a sharp reclaim. The bounce stalled at the fib 61.8 retracement of the London drop near 0.5615, just under the london high at 0.5617. Price is pinned at EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral near 51, as NZD tracks firm US yields.
Support: 0.56044, 0.55989
Resistance: 0.56147, 0.56172, 0.56243
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.5617 london high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 0.5624 swing high in play
Failure at the 0.5604 prior low re-exposes the 0.5599 session low and 0.5600 psych
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Asia; London swept below 0.5600 and snapped back.
London took out the Asian low at 0.5618 and printed a 0.5599 session low just under the 0.5600 round number. Price then bounced sharply to 0.5613, near the 50% retrace of the Asia-London decline, with NZD still tracking firm US yields. The 0.5605 swing low is the nearest support, while the broken Asian low and the 0.5625 pivot sit overhead.
Support: 0.56054, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56181, 0.5625
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5618 asian low turns the 0.5600 dip into a confirmed false break
Failure to hold the 0.5605 swing low and a close under the 0.5600 round number confirms a lower low
US Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and ISM 14:00 UTC (NY session) could materially shift this read
0.5625 pivot is the zone to watch for rejection if the bounce extends
LH/LL chain from Asian high; Asian range low broken, London extending lower.
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asian high at 0.5628. The Asian range low near 0.5618 gave way ahead of London open, and London has stretched to a session low of 0.5599, with yield-led USD strength and NZ election risk outweighing the China PMI beats. The 0.5600 psych handle drew a rejection, leaving price sitting on the prior low at 0.5604, under trendline resistance and the 0.5612 lower high.
Support: 0.56044, 0.55989
Resistance: 0.56121, 0.56172, 0.56285
What it said to watch
Close below the 0.5599 session low extends the lower-low chain beneath 0.5600
Close above the 0.5612 lower high, clearing trendline resistance and the 50% fib (~0.5614), breaks the LH sequence
London high at 0.5617 and asian high at 0.5628 cap any retracement toward the fib 61.8%
US Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
09:47 UTC
Downtrend, pressing the London low · RSI 33 · price 0.56068
Lower highs below the broken Asian range.
Early London broke the Asian low at 0.5618 and printed a session low at 0.5604. The bounce stalled at 0.5617, the 38.2% retracement of the Asia-London decline, and the lower-high line has since capped price at 0.5612 as NZD tracks firm US yields and the election risk premium.
Support: 0.56044, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56121, 0.56181
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5604 session low exposes the 0.5600 round number
M15 close above the 0.5612 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence; the 0.5618 asian low is the next cap
US Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC), ISM Manufacturing and Waller (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower in London; lower highs since, low tested twice.
London broke below the 0.5618–0.5628 Asian range (asian high 0.5628) to a session low near 0.5605. The bounce stalled at the 0.5617 bounce high, just past the 50% of the London drop, and the lower highs line is capping price back near the lows. NZD stays heavy on election risk premium and firm US yields, with RSI(14) near 35 and no oversold reading.
Support: 0.5605, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5617, 0.5628
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5605 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5600 round number
Close above the 0.5617 bounce high breaks the lower highs trendline and puts the 0.5628 asian high back in view
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, then ISM Mfg and Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Asia, London consolidating 0.5604–0.5617.
London open broke the Asian low at 0.5618 and printed a session low of 0.5604. The bounce stalled at 0.5617, just under the broken Asian low and the 38.2% retrace of the Asia-London drop, and the lower-highs sequence from 0.5637 remains intact. Kiwi weakness tracks firm US yields and NZ election risk despite the China PMI beats.
Support: 0.56044, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56181, 0.56285
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5604 session low exposes the 0.5600 round number
Close back above the 0.5618 asian low breaks the lower-highs trendline and invalidates the range-break read
A move through the 0.5628 lower high would reopen the Asian range
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM at 14:00 UTC with Fedspeak could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows; Asian range broken lower, London low 0.5604 holding.
NZD/USD broke the 0.5618 Asian low just before London open and slid to a 0.5604 London low. The early-London bounce stalled at 0.5617 for another lower high, and price now sits on the London low with RSI(14) at 34, not oversold. Firm US yields keep the kiwi heavy despite the China PMI beats; the lower-highs line from the 0.5637 Asian high caps the move.
Support: 0.56044, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56172, 0.56181, 0.56374
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5604 london low exposes the 0.5600 round number
M15 close back above the 0.5618 asian low negates the range-break read
A break of the lower-highs line through 0.5637 asian high retracement levels would end the downtrend sequence
US Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and ISM Mfg 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
London broke below Asian range low, lower high at 0.56172.
London extended the slide that began after yesterday's failed PCE spike to 0.5665. It broke the Asian range low near 0.5618 and printed a 0.56044 session low. The bounce stalled at a 0.56172 lower high, roughly a 50% retrace on the London leg fib, and price is back pressing the lows with RSI(14) near 33, as NZD tracks firmer US yields and NZ election risk.
Support: 0.56044, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56172, 0.56374
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.56044 session low opens the 0.5600 round number
Close back above the 0.56172 lower high breaks the falling trendline and neutralises the lower-high sequence
Reclaiming the 0.56374 asian high would invalidate the intraday downtrend read
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, ISM Mfg at 14:00 UTC and Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs/lower lows; Asian low broken, retest from below.
Pre-London selling broke the Asian low at 0.5618, and London extended to a 0.5604 session low just above the 0.5600 round number. The lower-high chain from the post-PCE 0.5665 spike is intact, with US yields keeping the Kiwi heavy. The early-London bounce is stalling near the 38.2% retrace, retesting the broken Asian low and falling lower-highs trendline from below.
Support: 0.56044, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5618, 0.5625, 0.56374
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5618 (asian low / lower highs trendline) negates the retest read; fib 61.8% at 0.5625 next
Break of the 0.5604 london low exposes the 0.5600 round number
Reclaim of the 0.5637 asian high would break the lower-high chain
US jobless claims 12:30 UTC, ISM Mfg and Waller 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
07:47 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since the Asian session · RSI 33 · price 0.5612
Asian range broken to the downside into London open, bouncing off a fresh session low.
NZD/USD slipped through the Asian low at 0.5618 into the London open and printed a session low at 0.5604, just above the 0.5600 round number. Lower highs along the descending trendline from the 0.5637 Asian high are intact, with RSI(14) near 33. The slide tracks firm US yields after yesterday's strong US growth data.
Support: 0.56044, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5618, 0.56291, 0.56374
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5618 Asian low turns the break into a false break; the 0.5621–0.5625 fib zone sits just above
Clean break of 0.5600 round number extends the lower-low sequence below the 0.5604 session low
Descending trendline from the Asian high near 0.5624 caps rebounds; prior day low at 0.5629 is the next shelf above
US Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) and ISM Manufacturing (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read; ATR ~5 pips sets the baseline for normal bar size
07:32 UTC
Downtrend, extending into London · RSI 28 · price 0.56083
Lower highs from 0.5637 Asia high; Asian range low broken.
Early London broke the 0.5618 Asian low and printed a session low at 0.5607. That extends the lower-high chain from the 0.5637 Asia high as firm US yields keep NZD heavy despite the China PMI beats. RSI(14) is near 28 and ATR is about 4.4 pips; the 38.2% retrace of the Asia-London drop sits on the broken asian low.
Support: 0.56065, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5618, 0.56285
What it said to watch
Recovery back above the 0.5618 asian low would mark the break as a false break
Loss of the 0.5607 session low exposes the 0.5600 round number
Close above the 0.5629 swing high breaks the lower-high chain
US Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC, then ISM and Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower-high chain since 01:00 UTC; early London printed a fresh session low.
NZDUSD slipped below the 0.5625 cushion during Asia as US yields outweighed the China PMI beats. Each bounce has topped out lower, from the 0.5637 asian high to the 0.5629 swing high and then 0.5624. Early London set a session low at 0.5611 and price sits under the descending trendline near 0.5621, with RSI(14) near 35 and not yet oversold.
Support: 0.5611, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5621, 0.56285, 0.56374
What it said to watch
M15 close above the trendline at 0.5621 breaks the lower-high chain; 0.5624 (fib 50%) and the 0.5629 swing high come next
Acceptance below the 0.5611 session low exposes the 0.5600 round number
Reclaiming the 0.5637 asian high would invalidate the intraday downtrend read
US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
06:47 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 38 · price 0.56174
Lower highs from 0.5637 into a fresh 0.5611 session low, late Asia.
Asia extended the post-NY slide as USD firmed on Kashkari's hawkish guidance. Price fell from the 0.5637 Asian high through 0.5629 and the 0.5618 prior lows, then wicked to a 0.5611 session low just before London open. The close back at 0.5617 leaves that sweep unconfirmed, with RSI(14) near 38 and ATR(14) about 3.6 pips.
Support: 0.5611, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5618, 0.5629, 0.5637
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5618 prior lows turns the dip into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.5611 session low exposes the 0.5600 round number
Close above the 0.5629 lower high breaks the falling-highs sequence
US jobless claims at 12:30 GMT, then ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 GMT, could materially shift this read
06:32 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stalling in a tight range · RSI 41 · price 0.56206
Lower highs since the 0.5665 spike; Asian range 0.5618–0.5629 below the broken overnight range.
Yesterday's US-data spike to 0.5665 reversed into a steady NY sell-off. Asia then broke the 0.5631 range floor as USD firmed despite China PMI beats. Price is now pinned in a 0.5618–0.5629 Asian range under EMA20 and the lower-highs trendline, with RSI(14) near 41 heading into the London open.
Support: 0.56181, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56285, 0.5631, 0.56374
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5618 asian low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5600 round number
Reclaim of the 0.5629 asian high and the lower-highs trendline opens a retest of the 0.5631 range floor, then the 0.5637 swing high near the 38.2% of the NY sell-off
US jobless claims at 12:30 GMT, then ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 GMT, could materially shift this read
Lower highs capping a 0.5618–0.5629 Asian range after breaking the NY floor.
Asia broke the 0.5630 NY floor around the China PMI window and printed a twin Asian low at 0.5618. The bounce stalled at the 50% fib and Asian high near 0.5628, leaving lower highs. Price sits at 0.5622 into London open, below EMA20 and EMA50, with RSI(14) near 43, as USD stays firm on hawkish Fed talk.
Support: 0.56181, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56285, 0.5630, 0.56374
What it said to watch
Break of the 0.5618 asian low extends the downtrend toward 0.5600 psych
M15 close above the 0.5629 asian high and the 0.5630 ny floor breaks the lower highs
Reclaim of the 0.5637 swing high unwinds the Asian leg lower
US jobless claims 12:30 GMT, then ISM Manufacturing and Waller 14:00 GMT, could materially shift this read
05:47 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near asian low · RSI 39 · price 0.56212
The post-PCE spike to 0.5665 faded through NY. Asia then broke the 0.5629 prior-day low after the China PMI beats failed to lift the Kiwi, and the bounce was rejected under that broken low. Price is now pinned against a twice-tested 0.5618 asian low under a descending trendline, with RSI(14) near 39 and ATR around 3 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 0.56181, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5629, 0.56374
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5618 asian low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5600 round number
Reclaim of the 0.5629 broken low and the descending trendline neutralises the Asian downtrend read
Close above the 0.5637 asian high invalidates the lower-high structure
London open in ~1h15 likely sets the session range from this compressed base
US ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC, after jobless claims at 12:30, could materially shift this read
05:32 UTC
Downtrend, basing near lows · RSI 46 · price 0.56205
Lower highs since the 0.5665 spike; late-Asia base at 0.5618.
NZD/USD has printed lower highs since the rejection at 0.5665 during NY hours, as strong US growth data outweighed soft PCE. Asia extended the slide to the 0.5618 asia low after China PMI beats failed to lift the Kiwi. Late in the Asia session, price is holding just above that low twice, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 46 and ATR around 3 pips. The 0.5629 lower high caps the bounce.
Support: 0.56181, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56285, 0.56374, 0.5650
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5618 asia low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5600 round number
Close above the 0.5629 lower high and the lower-highs line shifts focus to the 0.5637 asia high, near the 38.2% retracement of the 0.5665–0.5618 drop
Recovery toward 0.5650 psych would need a break of the lower-highs line first
US jobless claims 12:30 UTC, ISM Manufacturing and Waller 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
05:17 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 37 · price 0.56193
Lower highs from the 0.5637 Asian high, price retesting the 0.5618 session low.
The soft-PCE spike to the 0.5665 pce high was fully reversed on US growth beats, leaving a flat 0.5630–0.5635 range into late NY hours. Asia broke that range lower despite China PMI beats. Price is now retesting the 0.5618 session low under a descending trendline from the 0.5637 Asian high, with the 0.5628 bounce high capping and ATR(14) near 3 pips.
Support: 0.56181, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56285, 0.56374, 0.56645
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5618 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5600 round number
Close above the 0.5628 bounce high breaks the descending trendline and neutralises the Asia downtrend read
Reclaim of the 0.5637 Asian high puts the 38.2% fib of the PCE spike decline back in play
US ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC, plus claims at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs since 0.5664 NY spike; late-Asia base 0.5618–0.5629.
Asia broke below its 0.5631–0.5637 opening range, with the asian high at 0.56374, as firm US yields outweighed China PMI beats. Price printed a 0.56182 session low at 02:00 UTC, and the 04:00 bounce rejected at 0.56285, a lower high about 54% into the asia drop fib. Price is pinned near 0.5621 heading into London, RSI(14) ~38 and below both EMAs.
Support: 0.56182, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56285, 0.56374
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.56285 lower high breaks the descending trendline and opens a move to the 0.56374 asian high
Failure to hold the 0.56182 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5600 round number
US jobless claims 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields
Lower highs since NY spike; Asian range broken lower.
The tight 0.5632–0.5637 Asian range, capped at the asian high of 0.5637, broke lower around 01:30 UTC. The move extended the slide from yesterday's NY spike high at 0.5665 to a 0.5618 session low, below Tuesday's 0.5625 cushion, as firm US yields kept NZD heavy. The rebound stalled at the 0.5629 bounce high, under the lower-high line from the NY highs. RSI(14) is near 34 and ATR(14) is about 3.5 pips, typical late-Asia compression ahead of the London open.
Support: 0.56182, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56285, 0.56374
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5629 bounce high and the lower-high line reopens the asian high at 0.5637
Failure to hold the 0.5618 session low exposes the 0.5600 round number
US Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC), ISM Manufacturing and Waller (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read via US yields
Asia session broke below the overnight range floor; the bounce off the session low formed a lower high and has faded back toward the lows.
Asia session broke the overnight 0.5630–0.5636 range floor and slid to a 0.56182 Asia low. USD stayed firm on Kashkari's hawkish guidance, and China PMI beats gave NZD no lift. The rebound stalled at a 0.56285 lower high, between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the drop from the 0.56374 Asia high, and price is back at 0.5621 with RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 0.56182, 0.5620
Resistance: 0.56285, 0.5630, 0.56374
What it said to watch
Loss of the 0.56182 Asia low and 0.5620 round number extends the lower-low sequence
M15 close above the 0.56285 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the intraday down-sequence, putting the 0.5630 range floor back in play
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55), alongside Waller, could materially shift this read
Lower highs since the NY spike; Asian range broken lower.
The 12:30 UTC US data spike to 0.5665 was fully reversed, and NY ground lower into a 0.5629–0.5630 ny low. Asia then broke its 0.5632–0.5637 range lower to an asia low at 0.5618 as firm US yields kept the pair heavy. The bounce stalled at a 0.5628 rebound high near the 50% fib, with price back under the old 0.5625 cushion.
Support: 0.56182, 0.5620
Resistance: 0.56285, 0.5630, 0.56374
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5628 rebound high and 0.5630 ny low reopens the asia high at 0.5637 and the falling trendline
Break of the 0.5618 asia low exposes the 0.5620 round number zone and extends the lower-low chain
US Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the 0.5665 PCE spike high; tight hold above the 0.5618 session low.
Around the Tokyo open, price broke the 0.5630 broken floor of the post-NY range and Tuesday's 0.5625 cushion, putting in a 0.5618 session low before holding a 0.5621–0.5626 box with a minor base at 0.5621. RSI(14) is near 37. The move extends the lower-high sequence and descending resistance off the 0.5665 PCE spike high, with a firm USD keeping NZD pinned despite the China PMI beats.
Support: 0.56212, 0.56182
Resistance: 0.56258, 0.5630, 0.56374
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5626 bounce high and back over the 0.5630 broken floor would turn the Asia break into a false break
Loss of the 0.5621 minor base and the 0.5618 session low extends the lower-low chain
Descending resistance near 0.5634 and the 0.5637 swing high cap the structure; a clearance there neutralises the downtrend read
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM/Waller at 14:00 UTC today could materially shift this read
Asia broke the overnight range lower; lower highs since the 0.5664 NY spike.
The Asia session broke the 0.5629–0.5637 overnight range lower and printed a session low at 0.56182. The bounce stalled at 0.56258, the 38.2% fib of the drop. The move fits the firm USD/yields backdrop, with price now below Tuesday's 0.5625 cushion and RSI(14) near 33.
Support: 0.56182, 0.5615
Resistance: 0.56258, 0.5629, 0.56374
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5629 range floor would turn the Asia break into a false break
Rejection at the 38.2% fib (0.56258) keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Loss of the 0.56182 session low exposes the 0.5615 round number
Reclaim of the 0.56374 asian high would negate the session's downtrend structure
US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift the read during NY hours
03:17 UTC
Downtrend, pausing after Asia drop · RSI 36 · price 0.56247
Lower highs from 0.5664; overnight range floor broken, basing above 0.5618.
The Asia session broke the 0.5629–0.5635 overnight range floor and printed a 0.5618 session low. That extends the lower-highs sequence from the 0.5664 NY spike on the PCE/GDP data, with firm US yields keeping NZD heavy. Price is basing just under the 38.2% retrace near 0.5626 and RSI(14) is around 36, soft but not stretched.
Support: 0.56182
Resistance: 0.5629, 0.56374, 0.5650
What it said to watch
Recovery and hold back above the 0.5629 range floor negates the Asia breakdown
Loss of the 0.5618 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Asian high at 0.5637 and the lower highs trendline cap any bounce; 0.5650 psych is the wider cap
US ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC, plus jobless claims at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Asian range break lower, lower highs since post-PCE spike.
Mid-Asia session, price broke the 0.5630 range floor and printed a 0.5618 session low. The bounce is stalling under the 38.2% fib near 0.5626, with the 0.5632–0.5637 Asian high zone overhead. The move extends the fade from the post-PCE spike to 0.5665, with firm US yields keeping NZD heavy despite the soft core PCE.
Support: 0.56182, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5630, 0.56374, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5630 range floor would mark the break lower as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.5618 session low opens the 0.5600 psych level
Lower-high sequence holds while price stays below the 0.5637 Asian high; 0.5650 round number caps the broader swing
US Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and ISM Mfg with Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
02:47 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since NY spike · RSI 34 · price 0.5624
Asia broke below late-NY shelf; basing just above 0.5618 session low.
Lower highs since the 0.5664 spike on yesterday's US data. In Asia, price gave up the 0.5629 ny low and the 0.5637 asian high shelf, then printed a 0.5618 session low as firm US yields kept NZD heavy. Price now sits just under the broken 0.5625 tue low. RSI(14) is 34, not oversold, and ATR is about 3.6 pips.
Support: 0.5618, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5625, 0.5629, 0.5637
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above 0.5629 ny low would put price back inside the late-NY range
A break above 0.5637 asian high, near the 38.2% of the selloff fib, would also clear the lower highs trendline
Failure to hold the 0.5618 session low exposes the 0.5600 round number
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
02:32 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since NY spike · RSI 31 · price 0.56214
Asia range break lower, session low at 0.5618.
Asia broke the overnight 0.5630–0.5637 range, which had held since the post-PCE fade from 0.5664. The move printed a session low at 0.5618, with RSI(14) near 31, while firm US growth data and yields kept the USD supported. Price is stalling just above 0.5620, with the 0.5629 broken low now capping and the lower highs trendline intact.
Support: 0.56182, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56291, 0.56374, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5629 broken low turns the range break into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.5618 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5600 round number
A reclaim of the 0.5637 asian high would breach the lower highs trendline
0.5650 psych is the ceiling the digest flags for any USD-softening recovery
US Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing with Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
02:17 UTC
Downtrend, fresh lows in Asia · RSI 31 · price 0.5621
Overnight range broken lower, lower highs since NY spike.
The PCE-driven spike to 0.5665 in the NY session faded on firm US growth data. A run of descending highs then capped price, and the overnight 0.5629–0.5637 box gave way early in the Asia session. The drop printed a session low at 0.5618, under the 0.5625 cushion, with RSI(14) near 31 and not yet at an extreme.
Support: 0.5618, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5629, 0.5637
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5629 range floor turns the break into a false break
Rebound into the 38.2–50% asia drop fib (0.5626–0.5628) meeting supply keeps lower highs intact
Loss of the 0.5618 session low exposes the 0.5600 round number
Reclaiming the 0.5637 asia high and the descending highs line invalidates the downtrend read
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM/Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
01:47 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 44 · price 0.5630
Lower highs from the NY spike high; tight 0.5629–0.5637 Asian range.
The NY-open spike to the 0.5664 spike high on the PCE miss fully reversed as USD recovered on the GDP/ADP beats. Lower highs followed into a 0.5629–0.5637 band through late NY and the Asia session. An early-Asia probe printed a marginal new swing low at 0.5629, with RSI(14) near 44 and ATR around 3 pips.
Support: 0.56286, 0.5625
Resistance: 0.56374, 0.56499, 0.56645
What it said to watch
A close below the 0.5629 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5625 cushion
A reclaim of the 0.5637 asian high and the descending trendline neutralises the downtrend read; 0.5650 lower high sits above
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM/Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
01:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, stalling in Asia · RSI 51 · price 0.56338
Lower highs since 0.5664 spike; tight Asian range 0.5629–0.5637.
The 12:30 UTC PCE miss spiked NZDUSD to 0.5664. GDP and ADP beats reversed the move, and NY carved lower highs down to the 0.5629 asian low. Asia session is compressing in a 0.5629–0.5637 range under a falling trendline, with price hugging a flat EMA20, RSI(14) neutral near 51 and ATR(14) just 2.5 pips.
Support: 0.56319, 0.56291, 0.5625
Resistance: 0.56374, 0.56428, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5637 asian high and the falling trendline opens the 0.5643 lower high, near the 38.2% of the NY drop fib
Break of the 0.5632 session low, then the 0.5629 asian low, extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5625 tue low
0.5650 psych has capped rallies all week; a reclaim would negate the intraday downtrend read
Jobless claims at 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC, are likely to resolve the Asian compression
01:17 UTC
Downtrend stalled, flat basing near day low · RSI 58 · price 0.5635
Tight Asian range 0.5631–0.5637 above the 0.5629 swing low, minor higher lows.
The 12:30 UTC US data spike to the 0.5665 spike high fully reversed as GDP and ADP beats lifted the dollar. NY hours ground lower into a 0.5629 swing low, with the 0.5650 bounce high capping. The Asia session is compressing in a 6-pip band capped by the 0.5637 asian high. ATR sub-3 pips shows a dead tape early in Asia.
Support: 0.5629, 0.5625
Resistance: 0.5637, 0.5650, 0.5665
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5637 asian high puts the 0.5650 bounce high and the 38.2% NY spike fib near 0.5643 in play
Failure to hold the 0.5629 swing low exposes the 0.5625 cushion
A break of the asia higher lows line at ~0.5632 negates the basing read
Challenger cuts 09:30 UTC, then jobless claims 12:30 and ISM/Waller 14:00 UTC, could reset the range
01:05 UTC
Flat, after intraday decline from 0.5665 · RSI 51 · price 0.56338
Lower highs from 0.5665 spike; tight Asian base 0.5629–0.5637.
The soft-PCE spike to 0.5665 faded as US growth beats lifted USD. Price has since printed a lower high at 0.5650 and a swing high at 0.5643, then flattened into a 0.5629–0.5637 Asian range, where the 00:45 UTC probe of the Asian high was rejected at the lower-high line. RSI(14) sits near 51 and ATR is just 2.6 pips, reflecting thin early Asia conditions.
Support: 0.56291, 0.5625
Resistance: 0.56372, 0.56428, 0.56499
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5637 Asian high and the lower-high line opens the 0.5643 swing high (fib 38.2%)
Failure to hold the 0.5629 Asian low exposes the 0.5625 Tuesday low cited in the macro digest
A reclaim of the 0.5650 lower high would break the sequence of lower highs since the spike
US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM/Waller at 14:00 UTC are the next scheduled risk to this read
00:47 UTC
Downtrend, basing in Asia · RSI 57 · price 0.56362
Lower highs from 0.5665, tight 0.5629–0.5637 range.
The 0.5665 spike high on the US data around 12:15 UTC was sold, and the pair slid to a 0.5629 range low after NY close as US growth beats outweighed soft PCE. Early Asia is pressing the 0.5637 range top, where EMA50 and the 23.6% retrace of that decline converge. Price holds just above ema20.
Support: 0.5634, 0.5629, 0.5625
Resistance: 0.5637, 0.5650, 0.5665
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5637 range top opens the 38.2% retrace near 0.5643, then the 0.5650 round number
Loss of ema20 (~0.5634) returns price to the range floor; a break of the 0.5629 range low exposes the 0.5625 tuesday low
Only a recovery through 0.5650 toward the 0.5665 spike high would break the lower-high sequence
US jobless claims, ISM Manufacturing and Fedspeak later Thursday could reset this range
00:32 UTC
Downtrend, compressing at lows · RSI 53 · price 0.56337
Lower highs from the 0.5664 spike; tight range 0.5629–0.5636 since late NY.
The soft US PCE print spiked NZD/USD to 0.5664 at the NY open, a false break of the London high. US growth beats pulled it back, and a lower-high sequence carried price down to 0.5629. Since late NY the pair has been coiling between 0.5629 and 0.5636 into the Asia session. The 0.5643 breakdown sits overhead, with RSI(14) neutral near 53 and ATR at about 2 pips.
Support: 0.56291, 0.5625
Resistance: 0.56357, 0.56428, 0.5650
What it said to watch
A close below the 0.5629 range low exposes the 0.5625 tue cushion flagged in the digest.
A close above the 0.5636 range top ends the Asian compression and puts the 0.5643 breakdown level in play.
Lower-high trendline from the 0.5664 spike stays intact while the 0.5650 psych level and the 0.5650 bounce high cap rallies.
US Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) and ISM Mfg with Waller (14:00 UTC) later today could shift the US-yield driver behind this read.
00:17 UTC
Flat, basing after NY sell-off · RSI 57 · price 0.56348
Tight 7-pip range under lower highs from the PCE spike.
The NY-open PCE spike to the 0.5664 pce high was rejected as US growth beats lifted USD. Lower highs at the 0.5650 bounce high led to a late-NY slide, and price has since compressed between the 0.5629 range low and 0.5636 range top into early Asia. RSI(14) is neutral near 57 and ATR is about 2.4 pips.
Support: 0.5629, 0.5625
Resistance: 0.5636, 0.5650, 0.5664
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5636 range top opens a retest of the 0.5650 bounce high and the descending trendline
Break of the 0.5629 range low exposes the 0.5625 tuesday low
Reclaiming the 50% fib near 0.5647 of the pce high to range low drop would invalidate the lower-high read
ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence (21:00 UTC) could test the range edges
Claims, ISM and Waller later today could test the range edges
Lower highs from 0.5664 PCE spike, flat base above 0.5629.
The soft-PCE spike to the 0.5664 pce high in the first NY bar was fully rejected as US growth beats lifted the USD. Price then ground through the 0.5637 prior low, the Asian-range floor, to a 0.5629 session low. Early Asia is now flat in a roughly 5-pip band just under that broken level, with ATR(14) compressed near 2 pips.
Support: 0.5629, 0.5625
Resistance: 0.5637, 0.5651, 0.5664
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5637 prior low would reclaim the broken Asian floor and open the 0.5643 fib 38.2
Failure to hold the 0.5629 session low exposes the 0.5625 tue low, the digest's support cushion
Any rebound that stalls below the 0.5651 fib 61.8 keeps the lower-high sequence from the 0.5664 pce high intact
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing alongside Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read