NZD/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Wednesday, 30 September 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the NZD/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:47 UTC
Downtrend since NY, now flat · RSI 51 · price 0.56334
Lower highs off PCE spike, tight 0.5629–0.5636 range.
The soft-PCE spike to the 0.5665 pce spike hi was fully rejected as US growth beats lifted the USD. NY then printed lower highs into a 0.5629–0.5636 range with the range top near the old Asian low, and the move has faded since. Early Asia session is still inside that range, with RSI(14) flat near 51 and ATR(14) around 2 pips.
Support: 0.56291, 0.5625
Resistance: 0.56362, 0.5650, 0.56645
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5629 range low exposes Tuesday support at 0.5625
Close above the 0.5636 range top reopens the 38.2% of the PCE fade near 0.5643 and the 0.5650 ny swing hi
A break of the NY lower highs trendline would end the post-PCE fade structure
US jobless claims 12:30 UTC and ISM/Waller 14:00 UTC are the next catalysts that could break the range
23:32 UTC
Downtrend since PCE spike, now flat · RSI 53 · price 0.56339
Tight range 0.5629–0.5636 below NY lower high.
The soft PCE print spiked NZDUSD to the 0.56645 pce high at 12:30 UTC. Growth beats then rebuilt USD demand, and NY sold the pair through a lower high at 0.56499 into 0.5633. Since mid-NY it has held a flat 0.5629–0.5636 range into the Asia session, with the session low at 0.56291, ATR near 2.4 pips and no setup in play.
Support: 0.56291, 0.5625
Resistance: 0.56357, 0.56499, 0.56645
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5636 range top would open a retest of the 0.56499 lower high
Failure to hold the 0.56291 session low exposes the 0.5625 prior low
A reclaim of the 38.2% retracement of the PCE-high selloff would ease the lower-highs sequence
US Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and ISM with Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
23:17 UTC
Downtrend, momentum drained into a tight range · RSI 44 · price 0.56323
Lower highs from the 0.5665 PCE spike high; 7-pip consolidation 0.5629–0.5636 since late NY.
The soft-PCE spike to 0.5665 met rejection within the 12:30 UTC bar, as US growth beats kept USD bid. A lower high at 0.5650 during NY hours preceded a slide into a 0.5629–0.5636 consolidation now carrying into the Asia session, with the range top capping late-NY bounces. RSI(14) near 44 and ATR around 2.4 pips show momentum has drained.
Support: 0.5629, 0.5625
Resistance: 0.5636, 0.5650, 0.5665
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5636 range top would break the consolidation and bring the 0.5650 lower high and 50% fib into view
Loss of the 0.5629 session low exposes 0.5625, the Tuesday low cited as key support in the digest
Close back above the 0.5665 pce spike high would invalidate the lower-high sequence
US Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) and ISM Manufacturing with Waller (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs since the PCE spike, now a tight 7-pip box.
The soft-PCE spike to the 0.5664 pce high at 12:30 UTC was fully rejected as US growth beats lifted the USD. NY then printed lower highs, including a 0.5650 bounce high, and ground down to the 0.5629 session low. Early Asia is compressing in a 0.5629–0.5636 box, with RSI(14) flat near 44 and ATR at about 3 pips.
Support: 0.5629, 0.5625
Resistance: 0.5636, 0.5650, 0.5664
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5629 session low exposes the 0.5625 tue low flagged in the macro digest
Acceptance above the 0.5636 range top ends the Asian compression and puts the 0.5650 bounce high back in focus
Recovery beyond the 38.2% level of the pce spike fib (~0.5643) would break the lower-high sequence
US jobless claims (12:30 UTC) and ISM Manufacturing with Waller (14:00 UTC) Thursday could reset this read; NZ consumer confidence follows at 21:00 UTC
22:47 UTC
Downtrend, flattening into a tight grind · RSI 43 · price 0.56321
Lower highs since the PCE spike high; compressed range just above the session low.
The 12:30 UTC soft-PCE spike to the 0.56645 pce high was rejected as US growth beats revived the USD. That left a lower-high chain through NY, with the 14:45 UTC lower high at 0.56499 sitting at the 0.5650 pivot. Price is now grinding a roughly 6-pip band into early Asia, capped at the 0.56357 range top and pressing the 0.56291 session low. RSI is near 43 and ATR is under 3 pips.
Support: 0.56291, 0.5625
Resistance: 0.56357, 0.56499, 0.56645
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.56357 range top ends the grind and puts the 38.2% fib of the PCE spike drop near 0.5643 in play
Failure to hold the 0.56291 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward 0.5625 psych support
Recovery above the 0.56499 lower high would neutralise the post-PCE downtrend read
US Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) and ISM Manufacturing with Waller (14:00 UTC) on Thursday could reset this structure
22:32 UTC
Downtrend, stalling into a tight base · RSI 43 · price 0.56321
Lower highs since the PCE spike high; 3-pip drift range near lows.
London's push to 0.5662 and the spike to the pce high at 0.5664 on the soft PCE print both met rejection. Growth beats rebuilt the USD bid, and NY printed a lower high at 0.5650 before grinding to a 0.5629 session low. Early Asia is drifting inside a 3-pip base under the 0.5636 range top, with RSI(14) near 43 and ATR compressed around 2.7 pips.
Support: 0.56291, 0.5625
Resistance: 0.56357, 0.56499, 0.56645
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5629 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5625 cushion
Reclaim of the 0.5636 range top would signal the NY-afternoon base is holding
Only a move back above the 0.5650 lower high breaks the post-PCE descending trendline
US Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) and ISM Manufacturing with Waller (14:00 UTC) on Thursday are the next material USD risk
22:17 UTC
Down since PCE spike, now flat · RSI 44 · price 0.56332
Lower highs into a tight base above 0.5629.
Soft PCE spiked the pair to the 0.5665 pce high at 12:30 UTC, but US growth beats drew a rejection. NY then carved lower highs down to a 0.5629 session low. Since late NY, price has compressed into a 6-pip base under the 0.5636 range top, hugging EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral near 44 ahead of the Asia session.
Support: 0.56291, 0.5625
Resistance: 0.56357, 0.56405, 0.56645
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5629 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward 0.5625 psych support
Reclaim of the 0.5636 range top puts the 0.5640 breakdown shelf and the 38.2% fib of the PCE fade (~0.5643) in play
Thursday's US jobless claims, ISM Manufacturing and Waller/Williams remarks could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.5665, tight range above the session low.
The PCE miss produced a pce spike to 0.5665 at the NY open. The move was fully rejected as the GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI beats firmed the USD, and a chain of lower highs, led by the 0.5650 lower high, ground price down into a 0.5630–0.5636 range through late NY. A dip around the 21:45 UTC NZ permits release printed a fresh session low at 0.5629 as Asia opens, with RSI(14) near 37 and ATR(14) about 3 pips.
Support: 0.56291, 0.5625
Resistance: 0.56357, 0.56499, 0.56645
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5629 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5625 tue low
Reclaim of the 0.5636 range top opens a retest of the 0.5643–0.5650 zone (38.2% fib / lower high)
Kashkari at 22:00 UTC could shift USD tone during thin early-Asia liquidity
21:47 UTC
Downtrend since PCE spike, now basing · RSI 50 · price 0.5634
Lower highs off 0.5664, tight 0.5630–0.5636 range.
The soft PCE print spiked the pair to 0.5664 (pce high) at 12:30 UTC, but the move was fully rejected as US growth beats backed the USD, and NY hours ground lower to a 0.5630 session low. Price has since compressed in a 0.5630–0.5636 band into the Asia open. RSI(14) is neutral near 50 and ATR is under 3 pips; the 38.2% fib of the PCE high-low drop sits near 0.5643, below the 0.5650 pivot.
Support: 0.5630, 0.5625
Resistance: 0.5636, 0.5650, 0.5664
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5636 range top puts the 38.2% fib near 0.5643 and the 0.5650 pivot back in view
Failure to hold the 0.5630 session low exposes the 0.5625 Tuesday low
NZ Building Permits (21:45 UTC) and Kashkari (22:00 UTC) could break the compression in thin Asia trade
21:32 UTC
Downtrend, flattening into a tight base · RSI 46 · price 0.56334
Lower highs from the PCE spike high; 0.5630–0.5636 range since late NY.
The soft-PCE spike to the 0.5665 pce high was rejected within one bar as the US growth beats capped the dollar dip. Price then carved lower highs, with 0.5650 marking the latest lower high, down to a 0.5630 session low. Since late NY it has been ranging 0.5630–0.5636 with ATR near 3 pips, and no setup is in play into the Asia session.
Support: 0.56301, 0.5625
Resistance: 0.56357, 0.56499, 0.56645
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5636 range top, then 0.5650 lower high, breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the fib 50–61.8% zone in play
Failure to hold the 0.5630 session low exposes Tuesday's 0.5625 tue support
NZ Building Permits (21:45 UTC) and Fed's Kashkari (22:00 UTC) could break the tight range
Price back above the PCE-high trendline would negate the downtrend read
NY lower highs from the PCE spike, now a tight late-NY consolidation at the session low.
The 12:30 UTC US data spike set a PCE high at 0.5664, a false break of the London high, and reversed as strong GDP and Chicago PMI outweighed the soft PCE. NY then printed a lower high at 0.5650 and gave back the day's gains. Since mid-NY, price has held a ~5-pip consolidation between the 0.5630 session low and the 0.5636 range top, with RSI(14) neutral near 45 and ATR(14) around 3 pips.
Support: 0.56301, 0.5625
Resistance: 0.56357, 0.56499, 0.56645
What it said to watch
A break of the 0.5630 session low exposes the 0.5625 Tue low cited in the digest
A close above the 0.5636 range top and the 0.5643 38.2% PCE-spike fib would challenge the NY lower-high sequence toward the 0.5650 lower high
NZ Building Permits (21:45 UTC) and Kashkari (22:00 UTC) could break the late-NY consolidation
21:07 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 41 · price 0.56318
Lower highs since the PCE spike, tight range above 0.5630.
The NY spike to the 0.5664 pce high on the soft PCE print was rejected and fully faded as beats in GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI firmed the USD. The fade left a chain of lower highs back below the Asian range, 0.5637–0.5650. Late NY hours have compressed into a 3-pip ATR range capped by the 0.5636 range top, with the 0.5630 window low tested twice.
Support: 0.5630, 0.5625
Resistance: 0.56357, 0.5650, 0.56645
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5630 window low exposes the 0.5625 tuesday low
Close back above the 0.5636 range top and the 0.5637 Asian low breaks the lower-high sequence; the 50% fib of the PCE fade at 0.5647 and the 0.5650 asian high sit above
Kashkari at 22:00 UTC and NZ Building Permits at 21:45 UTC could jolt the thin post-NY tape
20:47 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near day low · RSI 42 · price 0.56321
Lower highs from the post-PCE spike; tight late-NY range at the prior-day low.
The 12:30 UTC spike to the 0.5665 pce high was rejected within a bar as strong GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI offset the soft PCE. NY hours then printed a lower high at 0.5650 and slid back to the 0.5630 day low. Late NY is compressing between that low and the 0.5636 range top, with ATR(14) near 3 pips and RSI(14) at 42.
Support: 0.56301, 0.5625
Resistance: 0.56362, 0.56499, 0.56645
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.5630 day low exposes the 0.5625 tue support area
A close above the 0.5636 range top, then the 0.5650 lower high near the 61.8% of the PCE spike fib, would break the NY lower-high sequence
NZ Building Permits at 21:45 UTC and Kashkari at 22:00 UTC could shift the read into the Asia session
20:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, flattening into range · RSI 41 · price 0.56323
Post-PCE lower highs, tight 0.5630–0.5636 band.
The 12:30 UTC PCE spike to 0.5664 was rejected as beats in GDP and the Chicago PMI backed the USD. The move erased the London gains and led to lower highs at the 0.5650 bounce high. Price has compressed in a 0.5630–0.5636 band since mid-NY, with the 0.5630 day low tested twice and RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 0.5630, 0.5625
Resistance: 0.5636, 0.5650, 0.56645
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.5630 day low opens Tuesday's 0.5625 support.
A close above the 0.5636 range top exposes the 38.2% fib at ~0.5643 and the 0.5650 bounce high.
Reclaiming the 0.5664 pce spike high would negate the post-PCE rejection.
NZ Building Permits at 21:45 UTC and Kashkari at 22:00 UTC could break the late-session range.
20:17 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 40 · price 0.56318
Lower highs since PCE spike rejection; tight late-NY range on window low.
The 12:30 UTC PCE print spiked NZD/USD to the 0.5665 pce spike high. Beats in GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI then drove a rejection and a lower-high sequence at 0.5650. Late NY has compressed into a 0.5630–0.5636 range capped by the range top, with price now sitting on the 0.5630 window low (RSI ~40, ATR under 3 pips).
Support: 0.5630, 0.5625
Resistance: 0.56355, 0.5650, 0.56645
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5630 window low extends the lower-low chain toward 0.5625 psych
Recovery above the 0.5636 range top back into the pce spike fib zone (0.5643–0.5651) neutralises the drift
Close above the 0.5650 lower high invalidates the post-PCE downtrend read
Fed's Kashkari at 22:00 UTC and NZ Building Permits at 21:45 UTC could break the compression
20:05 UTC
Intraday downtrend, flattening into a tight range · RSI 41 · price 0.56325
Lower highs since the 12:30 UTC spike; 4-pip range above the window low.
The 12:30 UTC PCE spike to the 0.5664 pce high was rejected as strong GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI offset the soft core print. NY then printed lower highs, including a 14:45 UTC swing high at 0.5650, into a 0.5632–0.5636 range below the Asian range, with the range top capping since 16:00 UTC. The 19:45 UTC probe held the 0.5630 window low, matching yesterday's 21:00 UTC low; RSI(14) is near 41 and ATR is under 3 pips.
Support: 0.5630, 0.5625
Resistance: 0.5636, 0.5650, 0.5664
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5630 window low exposes the tue low at 0.5625
Close above the 0.5636 range top ends the late-session compression
Reclaim of the 0.5650 swing high breaks the lower-highs sequence and the 50% of the PCE spike move
Kashkari at 22:00 UTC and NZ Building Permits at 21:45 UTC could break the thin late-NY range
Lower highs off the 0.5664 day high, now in a tight late-NY range pressing its floor.
The spike to the 0.5664 day high on the 12:30 UTC US data was rejected. Strong GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI outweighed the soft PCE, leaving a lower high at 0.5650 and a slide into a 0.5632–0.5636 late-NY range. Price is sitting on the 0.5632 session low with ATR compressed near 3 pips and RSI(14) around 40.
Support: 0.56317, 0.56302
Resistance: 0.56357, 0.56499, 0.56645
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5632 session low exposes the 0.5630 prior low, then the 0.5625 area
Close above the 0.5636 range top, then the 0.5650 lower high, breaks the lower-high sequence; the 50% fib of the NY selloff sits at 0.5648
Goolsbee (20:05 UTC), NZ Building Permits (21:45 UTC) and Kashkari (22:00 UTC) could break the thin late-NY range
19:32 UTC
Downtrend from US data spike, now flat · RSI 44 · price 0.56344
Lower highs into NY low, tight late-NY consolidation 0.5632–0.5636.
The 12:30 UTC spike to 0.5665 on the soft PCE miss was fully rejected as the GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI beats lifted USD. A lower-high sequence followed into the 0.5632 ny low. Late NY has compressed into a 0.5632–0.5636 range under the range top, with ATR near 3 pips and RSI(14) flat at 44.
Support: 0.56317, 0.56302
Resistance: 0.56357, 0.56406, 0.56442
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5632 ny low exposes the 0.5630 rollover low
Close above the 0.5636 range top would test the 0.5641 breakdown area; above that, the 38.2% fib at 0.5644 comes into view
Goolsbee (20:05 UTC) and Kashkari (22:00 UTC) on October vs December hike timing could break the range
NZ Building Permits at 21:45 UTC during thin Asia-open liquidity
19:17 UTC
Downtrend since NY data spike, momentum flattening · RSI 37 · price 0.56338
Lower highs from 0.5665; tight late-NY compression above session low.
The 12:30 UTC US data spike poked above the London high to 0.5665. It then reversed as the GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI beats outweighed the PCE miss, and the NY sell-off cut through the 0.5637 Asian low. Since 16:30 UTC, price has compressed in a 4-pip band between the 0.5632 session low and the 0.5636 range top, with RSI(14) near 37 and ATR(14) around 3 pips.
Support: 0.56317, 0.56302
Resistance: 0.56357, 0.56369, 0.56499
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5632 session low exposes the 0.5630 prior low from the rollover spike
Reclaim of the 0.5636 range top and 0.5637 asian low ends the compression; the 0.5650 lower high and the lower highs line sit above
Fedspeak from Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee (20:05) and Kashkari (22:00) could break the late-NY range
NZ Building Permits at 21:45 UTC, medium impact, no forecast
19:04 UTC
Downtrend since NY data spike, now stalling · RSI 41 · price 0.56352
Lower highs from 0.5665, tight late-NY range 0.5632–0.5636.
The NY data spike to 0.5665 met rejection and was fully reversed as USD recovered on the GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI beats. That left a chain of lower highs down to a 0.5632 session low. Late NY is now compressing in a 4-pip range between that low and the 0.5636 range top, below EMA20, with RSI(14) near 41 and ATR(14) around 3.4 pips.
Support: 0.56317, 0.56302
Resistance: 0.56357, 0.56404, 0.56499
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5632 session low exposes yesterday's 0.5630 prior low
Reclaim of the 0.5636 range top and then the 0.5640 breakdown level would stall the lower-high sequence
Holding under the 0.5650 lower high and the lower-highs trendline keeps the NY drop structure intact; the NY drop fib 38.2% sits near 0.5644
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee (20:05) and Kashkari (22:00) could break the late-NY range
NZ Building Permits at 21:45 UTC is a minor catalyst during thin Asia-open liquidity
18:47 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 38 · price 0.56343
Lower highs from the 0.5665 PCE spike high, tight range 0.5632–0.5636 after London close.
The soft core PCE print spiked NZDUSD to the 0.5665 PCE high at 12:30 UTC, but the move was rejected as the GDP and Chicago PMI beats restored USD. Lower highs at the 0.5650 swing high followed and price slid through the 0.5636 Asian low. Since London close it has compressed in a ~4-pip band just above the 0.5632 session low, with RSI(14) near 38 and ATR(14) around 4 pips.
Support: 0.56317, 0.56302, 0.5625
Resistance: 0.56363, 0.56499, 0.56645
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5632 session low exposes the 0.5630 rollover low and the 0.5625 tuesday low
Recovery back above the 0.5636 asian low reopens the 0.5644–0.5648 fib zone and the 0.5650 swing high on the lower-highs line
Fed Cook (19:25 UTC) and Goolsbee (20:05 UTC) could break the late NY session compression
NZ Building Permits at 21:45 UTC (medium impact) lands in thin Asia-open liquidity
Lower highs since 12:30 UTC spike; tight 3-pip base above the session low.
The 12:30 UTC US data spike made a false break above the London high to a 0.5665 day high. It then fully reversed as USD recovered on the ADP/GDP/Chicago PMI beats, printing lower highs and breaking below the Asian low at 0.5637. Late NY is compressing just above the 0.5632 session low, with RSI(14) near 32 and ATR around 4 pips.
Support: 0.56317, 0.5625
Resistance: 0.56366, 0.56499, 0.56645
What it said to watch
Close back above the 0.5637 asian low would turn the range break into a failed breakdown
Loss of the 0.5632 session low exposes Tuesday's 0.5625 low
Recovery through the 0.5644 fib 38.2% toward the 0.5650 asian high would neutralise the lower-high sequence
Fed Cook 19:25 UTC and Goolsbee 20:05 UTC could shift this read
NZ Building Permits 21:45 UTC is a medium-impact risk to the current range
Lower highs and lower lows since the PCE spike high; tight compression at the session low.
NZDUSD saw a rejection at the 0.5664 PCE high during NY hours as USD recovered on the ADP/GDP/Chicago PMI beats. Price has since printed a lower high below the 0.5650 pivot and slipped under the 0.5637 broken low. It is now compressing in a 3-pip band just above the 0.5632 session low after London close, with RSI(14) near 31.
Support: 0.56317, 0.5630, 0.5625
Resistance: 0.56369, 0.5650, 0.56645
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5637 broken low negates the lower-low sequence and puts the 0.5644–0.5648 fib zone in play
A break of the 0.5632 session low exposes the 0.5630 round number, then Tuesday's 0.5625 support
Holding below the 0.5650 pivot keeps the PCE fade trendline of lower highs intact; a reclaim reopens the 0.5664 PCE high
Fed Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee (20:05) and Kashkari (22:00) could break the current compression
NZ Building Permits at 21:45 UTC fall inside the thin rollover window
Lower highs from the NY data spike; tight late-NY consolidation just above the session low.
The 12:30 UTC spike to the 0.5665 data high was rejected as GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI beats outweighed the soft core PCE and restored the USD bid. A lower high at 0.5650 and a break of the Asian low near 0.5637 followed. Price is now compressing at 0.5632–0.5636 just above the 0.5632 session low, with RSI(14) near 32 and ATR at roughly 4 pips.
Support: 0.56317, 0.56302
Resistance: 0.56369, 0.56499, 0.56645
What it said to watch
A close back above the asian low at 0.5637 negates the breakdown and returns price to the Asian range
Failure at the 0.5632 session low exposes the 0.5630 rollover low and extends the lower-low chain
A move through the 0.5650 lower high breaks the NY downtrend line; the fib 50% sits near 0.5648
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee (20:05) and Kashkari (22:00) could shift October-hike pricing and this read
NZ Building Permits at 21:45 UTC fall inside a thin post-NY tape
Lower highs since 0.5664 NY high; compressing at 0.5632-0.5635 lows.
The post-PCE spike to the 0.5664 day high was rejected within the NY hour after the US growth beats restored the USD bid. Price then carved lower highs through 0.5650 and cut through the 0.5637 broken low. Late in NY it is compressing just above the 0.5632 session low, on the Asian low, with RSI(14) near 37 and bar ranges shrinking.
Support: 0.56317, 0.56302
Resistance: 0.56369, 0.56499, 0.56645
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5632 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5630 prior low
Recovery above the 0.5637 broken low negates the breakdown; the 0.5644-0.5652 fib zone and 0.5650 lower high sit above
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC) and Goolsbee (20:05 UTC) could materially shift this read
NZ Building Permits at 21:45 UTC may add volatility into the Asia session
Lower highs since NY data spike; basing at session low.
The soft core PCE print at 12:30 UTC briefly broke the London high, but the move was rejected at the 0.5665 data spike as GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI beats restored the USD bid. NY then printed lower highs, the latest at the 0.5650 lower high, down to a 0.5632 session low at the Asian range floor. Price is now basing at 0.5632–0.5636 after London close, capped by the 0.5639 breakdown level, with RSI(14) near 35 and not oversold.
Support: 0.56317, 0.56276
Resistance: 0.56388, 0.56499, 0.56645
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5632 session low exposes the 0.5628 prior low and the 0.5625 area
Reclaim of the 0.5639 breakdown level, then 0.5644 (38.2% of the NY selloff), would stall the lower-high sequence
Close above the 0.5650 lower high negates the NY downtrend read; the 0.5665 data spike caps above that
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee (20:05) and Kashkari (22:00) could shift USD pricing into Asia
Lower highs since NY spike high, trading below Asian range.
The US data burst at the NY open spiked NZDUSD to the 0.5665 NY high. The move fully reversed as ADP, GDP and Chicago PMI beats outweighed the soft core PCE, and lower highs since then have pushed price through the Asian low at 0.5636 to a 0.5632 session low. Late in NY, bars are compressing just above that low with RSI(14) near 36, not oversold.
Support: 0.56317, 0.56276
Resistance: 0.56363, 0.56499, 0.56645
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5636 Asian low negates the range-break read and puts the 0.5644–0.5648 fib zone in view
Failure to hold the 0.5632 session low exposes the 0.5628 prior low from yesterday's NY session
A close above the 0.5650 lower high breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high chain
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee (20:05) and Kashkari (22:00) could shift October-hike pricing and this read
NZ Building Permits at 21:45 UTC is medium impact and lands in thin post-NY liquidity
17:05 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since NY open · RSI 32 · price 0.56338
LH/LL chain after failed 0.5665 spike; price below broken Asian low.
The soft core PCE print lifted the pair in the first hour of NY. It spiked above the London high to 0.5665, then reversed fully as the ADP, GDP and Chicago PMI beats restored the USD bid. Since then a lower-high sequence at 0.5650 and 0.5643 has pushed price through the Asian low at 0.5637 to a session low of 0.5632 after London close, with RSI(14) near 32, soft but not oversold.
Support: 0.56317, 0.56263
Resistance: 0.56367, 0.56442, 0.56499
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5637 Asian low turns the break below it into a false break
A move up to the 38.2 fib of the NY selloff near 0.5644 is where the lower-high chain gets tested; a close above the 0.5650 lower high invalidates the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 0.5632 session low exposes the 0.5626 prior low, near the 0.5625 cushion flagged in the market digest
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC) and Goolsbee (20:05 UTC) could shift this read, as could NZ Building Permits at 21:45 UTC
Lower highs since the PCE spike, Asian range broken below.
The soft core PCE spike to the 0.5665 pce high, a false break above the London high, fully reversed as strong ADP, GDP and Chicago PMI data restored the USD bid. NY hours then printed a lower high at 0.5650 and a break below the 0.5637 asian low. Price is now pressing the 0.5632 session low after London close, with RSI(14) near 31.
Support: 0.56317, 0.56263
Resistance: 0.56367, 0.56499, 0.56645
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5637 asian low would turn the break below the Asian range into a failed move
Failure to hold the 0.5632 session low exposes the prior low at 0.5626, just above the 0.5625 area in the digest
Reclaiming the 0.5650 lower high breaks the post-PCE lower-high sequence and the trendline off the pce high
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee (20:05) and Kashkari (22:00) could shift October-hike pricing and this read
NZ Building Permits at 21:45 UTC is a medium-impact risk in thin late-session liquidity
PCE spike rejected, LH/LL chain back to the session low.
The soft core PCE print at 12:30 UTC spiked NZDUSD to the 0.5664 PCE high. The move was fully rejected as US activity beats restored the USD bid, and a chain of lower highs has since broken the 0.5640 lows during NY hours. Price now sits on the 0.5633 session low with the Asian and London gains erased; RSI(14) is near 33, soft but not oversold.
Support: 0.5633, 0.5630, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.5640, 0.5650, 0.5664
What it said to watch
A close back above the 0.5640 broken lows and the lower-highs trendline negates the intraday downtrend read
Failure to hold the 0.5633 session low exposes the 0.5630 rollover low, then the 0.5626 prior low (digest's 0.5625 cushion)
The 0.5650 lower high caps rebounds; only a break there reopens the 0.5664 PCE high
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC) and Goolsbee (20:05 UTC) could shift the USD tone; NZ Building Permits follow at 21:45 UTC
PCE spike faded in a lower-high/lower-low chain, price back at the Asian low.
The 12:30 UTC core PCE miss spiked the pair through the London high to the 0.5665 pce high. The move was rejected almost at once and faded through NY hours in a chain of lower highs, bringing price back to the 0.5633 asian low and erasing the day's gains. RSI(14) near 34 is soft but not oversold, and price sits below the 0.5637 broken low from the 14:15 swing.
Support: 0.56331, 0.56302, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.56369, 0.56499, 0.56645
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5637 broken low eases the immediate pressure; a reclaim of the 0.5650 lower high breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 0.5633 asian low exposes the 0.5630 rollover low, then the 0.5626 prior ny low
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC) and Goolsbee (20:05 UTC) could shift the post-PCE read; NZ Building Permits land at 21:45 UTC
16:04 UTC
Down since the post-PCE spike, lower highs · RSI 36 · price 0.56372
Lower highs capping above a flat 0.5637 NY low.
The 12:30 UTC core-PCE miss spiked NZD to a 0.5665 pce spike, just above the London high near 0.5662. The move was fully reversed. NY hours since have printed a descending sequence of lower highs, the last at 0.5650, and price sits back on the 0.5637 NY low around London close, with RSI(14) near 36 and not yet oversold.
Support: 0.56369, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.56499, 0.56645
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5637 ny low breaks the Asian range base and exposes yesterday's 0.5626 prior low
A reclaim of the 0.5650 lower high breaks the NY lower-high trendline and neutralises the post-spike rejection
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC) and Goolsbee (20:05 UTC) could materially shift this read after the soft PCE
NZ Building Permits at 21:45 UTC is a secondary risk into the Asia session
15:47 UTC
Intraday pullback after a failed spike, drifting lower · RSI 44 · price 0.56409
The 12:30 UTC US core PCE miss spiked NZDUSD through the London high at 0.5662 to a 0.5665 PCE spike high. The GDP and Chicago PMI beats then reversed the move to a 0.5637 session low. The rebound stalled at the 0.5650 bounce high, just under the 50% fib of that drop, leaving price near 0.5641 below both EMAs with RSI(14) ~44.
Support: 0.56369, 0.56335, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.56499, 0.56619, 0.56645
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5637 session low exposes the 0.5634 Asia low, then the 0.5626 prior low
Reclaim of the 0.5650 bounce high and the falling trendline reopens the 0.5662 london high
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC) and Goolsbee (20:05 UTC), then NZ Building Permits at 21:45 UTC, could shift this read
Soft US core PCE (3.0% vs 3.3%) spiked the pair to a 0.5664 pce high above the London high at 12:30 UTC. The break failed within a bar, and price slid back through the Asian range to a 0.5637 ny low. Mid-NY, price is pivoting near 0.5646 beneath the 0.5650 asian high, with lower highs off the spike and RSI(14) neutral near 48.
Support: 0.5637, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.5650, 0.5664
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5650 asian high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 0.5664 pce high
Failure to hold 0.5637 ny low exposes the 0.5626 prior low near the 0.5625 cushion
Fed's Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari (19:25–22:00 UTC) could shift the post-PCE read; NZ Building Permits at 21:45 UTC
15:17 UTC
Sideways after rejected NY spike · RSI 50 · price 0.56464
NY spike above london high failed, price back inside Asian range.
The soft PCE print spiked NZDUSD to a day high at 0.5664, just past the london high, in the first hour of NY. The break failed and price faded to the ny low at 0.5637, the Asian range floor. The rebound is stalling at the asian high near 0.5650, which is also the 50% level of the NY fade fib, with RSI(14) flat around 50.
Support: 0.5637, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.5650, 0.5662, 0.56645
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5650 asian high and the NY fade fib 50% reopens the 0.5662 london high and 0.5664 day high
Failure to hold the 0.5637 ny low exposes the 0.5626 swing low from yesterday's session
Fed speakers Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari from 19:25 UTC could shift the USD read after the PCE miss
NZ Building Permits at 21:45 UTC is a secondary risk into the Asia session
Lower highs through London, PCE spike above London high rejected, NY low holding above the Asian low.
The soft core PCE miss spiked NZDUSD to a pce high of 0.56645, just through the 0.56619 london high, but the stronger GDP/ADP/Chicago PMI prints drew supply and the move unwound to a ny low at 0.56369, just above the Asian low. Price is now mid-range near 0.5645, about a third of the way into the pce spike retracement, with the 50% retrace at 0.56507 overhead and RSI(14) neutral at 47.
Support: 0.56369, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.56507, 0.56619, 0.56645
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 50% retrace at 0.56507 reopens the london high at 0.56619 and the pce high at 0.56645
Failure to hold the ny low at 0.56369, which also marks the Asian low, exposes the prior low at 0.5626
Fed speakers Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee and Kashkari could materially shift this read
14:47 UTC
Intraday down since data spike, bouncing · RSI 47 · price 0.56453
Lower highs from 0.5664 pce high, basing at 0.5637 ny low.
The soft core PCE print at 12:30 UTC spiked the pair to a 0.5664 pce high, just above the London high, but hot GDP and Chicago PMI saw it sold back in a false break. A string of lower highs followed down to the 0.5637 ny low, which matches the London-session low. The bounce is now testing 0.5647, where the fib 38.2 of the spike-to-low move sits and the Asian range high caps.
Support: 0.56369, 0.5630
Resistance: 0.56474, 0.56529, 0.56645
What it said to watch
A close above the 0.5653 lower high breaks the post-data lower-high sequence and puts the 0.5664 pce high back in view
Failure to hold the 0.5637 ny low exposes the 0.5630 asia low
Rejection at the fib 38.2 near 0.5647 keeps the reversal from the pce high intact
Fed Cook (19:25 UTC) and Goolsbee (20:05 UTC) on the PCE miss could materially shift this read
14:32 UTC
Intraday down since data spike · RSI 39 · price 0.56394
Lower highs and lower lows after failed break of London high.
The 12:30 UTC US data release (soft core PCE, hot GDP and Chicago PMI) pushed NZDUSD to a spike high at 0.5664, just above the London high, but the break failed. The NY session has since printed a string of lower highs under a falling trendline and returned to the session low at 0.5637, below the pre-data low at 0.5642. The post-data gain has fully unwound, with price below both EMAs and RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 0.5637, 0.5633, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.5642, 0.5664
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5637 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5633 asian low, then the 0.5626 prior low
A reclaim of the 0.5642 pre-data low and a close above the falling trendline would stall the post-data selloff
Only a move back through the 0.5664 spike high would negate the false-break read
Fed Cook (19:25 UTC) and Goolsbee (20:05 UTC) could shift USD after the split data; NZ Building Permits follow at 21:45 UTC
Lower highs and lower lows since the 12:30 UTC spike; testing pre-data low.
The soft PCE print lifted the 12:30 UTC bar to a spike high at 0.5665, briefly clearing the London high at 0.5662, but the move was fully retraced. That leaves a false break, with a lower high at 0.5654 and a lower-high trendline capping price. NY session is now pressing the pre-data low at 0.5641, below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 0.5641, 0.5634, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.5654, 0.5662, 0.5665
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5641 pre-data low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5634 Asian low, then the 0.5626 prior low
Reclaim of the 0.5654 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline and neutralises the post-data fade
Only a move back above the 0.5662 London high and 0.5665 spike high would undo the false-break read
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC) and Goolsbee (20:05 UTC) remarks could shift USD tone late in the NY session
NZ Building Permits at 21:45 UTC could move the pair after the NY close
14:03 UTC
Intraday upleg fading, deep pullback in play · RSI 44 · price 0.56445
Lower highs since the 0.5664 spike, back inside Asian range.
The soft US PCE print at 12:30 UTC spiked NZDUSD to a 0.5664 spike high, a brief false break above the 0.5662 London high that was rejected within the bar despite the dovish USD read. Price has since slipped back inside the Asian range and below EMA20/50. It is now pressing the 0.5642 swing low near the 78.6% level of the 0.5637–0.5664 upleg, with RSI(14) at 44 and ATR around 6 pips.
Support: 0.5642, 0.5633
Resistance: 0.5650, 0.5664
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5642 swing low and rising support exposes the asian low at 0.5633
Reclaim of the 0.5650 asian high puts the 0.5664 spike high back in focus
Fedspeak from Cook (19:25 UTC) and Goolsbee (20:05 UTC), then NZ Building Permits at 21:45 UTC, could shift this read
Lower highs since London open; NY false break above session high faded.
The core PCE miss at the NY open spiked price through the London high to a 0.5664 spike high, but the move fully reversed within an hour. Price is now pressing the 0.5642 London low below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 41, and the London-trendline sequence of lower highs is intact.
Support: 0.56417, 0.56367, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.5653, 0.56645
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5642 london low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5637 asian low, then the 0.5626 prior low
Reclaim of the 0.5653 lower high and the London trendline negates the post-PCE rejection read; 0.5664 spike high caps above
Chicago PMI (13:45 UTC) and Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC) could materially shift this read
Range 0.5642–0.5662, failed push above London high.
The soft core PCE print at 12:30 UTC spiked NZD/USD to a 0.5665 spike high, briefly sweeping the 0.5662 London high before being rejected. Price has since retraced to the 0.5650 round number, near the 61.8% of the PCE spike fib. The post-PCE low at 0.5647 is holding, and the pair sits mid-range above the 0.5642 pre-PCE low, with RSI(14) neutral around 51.
Support: 0.5650, 0.56466, 0.56417
Resistance: 0.56619, 0.56645
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 0.5662 London high negates the rejection read and puts the 0.5665 spike high back in play
Loss of the 0.5650 round number and the 0.5647 post-PCE low exposes the 0.5642 pre-PCE low, which would unwind the PCE spike fib
Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC and Fed speakers (Cook, Goolsbee) later in the NY session could shift this read
London range 0.5642–0.5662; false break above range top on data.
The soft US core PCE print at 12:30 UTC lifted the pair through the London high at 0.5662 to a pce spike of 0.5665. The move was fully rejected within two bars, and price is back at 0.5650 inside the 0.5642–0.5662 London range, with RSI(14) neutral near 48. The post-pce low at 0.5648 and the pre-pce low at 0.5642 are the nearby floors, and the rising lows off the Asian low at 0.5637 remain intact.
Support: 0.56476, 0.56417, 0.56367
Resistance: 0.56619, 0.56645
What it said to watch
Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC could extend or reverse the post-PCE fade
An M15 close below the pre-pce low at 0.5642 breaks the rising lows line and exposes the asian low at 0.5637
A reclaim of the london high at 0.5662 and the pce spike at 0.5665 negates the false break read
Price holding below the 61.8% of the pce spike fib keeps the rejection read intact
Fed speakers during NY hours (Cook 19:25, Goolsbee 20:05 UTC) could materially shift this read
13:05 UTC
Recovery from 0.5626 low, stalling into NY · RSI 55 · price 0.56532
London range 0.5642–0.5662, false break higher on US data.
The core PCE miss spiked NZDUSD to a 0.5665 spike high in the first NY bar, clearing the 0.5662 London high, but the GDP and ADP beats reversed it straight back to the 0.5650 data low. Price is back inside the London session range, holding most of the rally from Tuesday's 0.5626 low. RSI(14) is neutral near 55.
Support: 0.5650, 0.5642, 0.5636
Resistance: 0.5662, 0.5665
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5650 data low reopens the 0.5642 London low, near the 50% retracement of the rally fib
A break under the 0.5636 Asian low shifts the read to a deeper retracement of the rally
An M15 close above the 0.5665 spike high negates the false break read
Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC and Fed speakers from 19:25 UTC (Cook, Goolsbee, Kashkari) could shift the post-PCE reaction
12:47 UTC
Intraday range, spiking higher on the PCE release · RSI 62 · price 0.56585
London lower highs and lower lows reversed by the 12:30 GMT spike; wick above the London high, close back below it.
London ground lower from the 0.56619 London high to a 0.56417 ADP low as the beat briefly lifted USD. The 12:30 GMT PCE release bar then ripped the pair to a 0.56645 PCE high, tagging above the London high before closing back at 0.5659, with RSI(14) near 62 and early NY holding above the 0.5650 round number.
Support: 0.5650, 0.56417, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.56619, 0.56645
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.56645 PCE high confirms the break of the London high and extends the NY-session range
Slip back below the 0.5650 round number, near the 61.8% of the PCE spike fib, returns price to the London range
Loss of the 0.56417 ADP low reopens the 0.5626 prior low from yesterday's NY session
PCE follow-through and Fedspeak during NY hours, then NZ Building Permits at 21:45 UTC, could shift this read
12:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, broken on the PCE bar · RSI 61 · price 0.56557
Lower highs from London high, trendline broken on the release.
London broke the Asian range top near 0.5650 and set the london high at 0.5662, then faded in a lower-high/lower-low grind to the 0.5642 swing low into the NY open. The core PCE release bar jumped about 10 pips, back above the descending trendline and the 0.5650 psych level, and is now pressing the 0.5657 lower high.
Support: 0.5650, 0.56417
Resistance: 0.56573, 0.56619
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5657 lower high confirms the descending trendline break and brings the 0.5662 london high into view
Slip back below the 0.5650 psych turns the release spike into a false break, with the 0.5642 swing low next
The PCE reaction is still forming. ATR near 4.6 pips understates release-bar range, so the first closes after the data carry the signal.
12:17 UTC
Intraday pullback after Asia rally · RSI 37 · price 0.56449
Lower highs and lower lows since London open.
The Asia rally, helped by Williams' 'no urgency' remarks and the China PMI beat, ran from the 0.5637 swing low to a session high at 0.5662 at London open, then was rejected. London printed lower highs at 0.5657 and 0.5655 and a London low at 0.5643, taking price back below the 0.5650 round number and into the 61.8–78.6% zone of the Asia rally fib ahead of ADP/PCE.
Support: 0.56432, 0.56367, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.5650, 0.56545, 0.56619
What it said to watch
Core PCE at 12:30 UTC, with ADP landing in the current bar, could materially shift this read; ATR near 4.5 pips will likely expand
M15 close below the 0.5643 London low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5637 swing low, then Tuesday's prior low near 0.5626
Close back above the 0.5650 round number and the 0.5655 lower high breaks the London trendline resistance and the lower-high sequence
Retest of the 0.5662 session high on a soft PCE would put the London rejection in question
12:03 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since London open · RSI 39 · price 0.56459
Lower highs from 0.5662, back below Asian range top.
London open took NZD through the 0.5650 Asian high to a 0.5662 london high as USD softened on Williams' remarks. The rejection there has since produced lower highs at 0.5657 and 0.5655, and price is testing the 0.5644 session low at the 50% retracement of the NY low–London high leg, back under the asian high.
Support: 0.5644, 0.5640, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.5650, 0.5657, 0.5662
What it said to watch
ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read within the next two bars
M15 close below the 0.5644 session low opens the fib 61.8 at 0.5640, then the 0.5626 ny low
Reclaim of the 0.5650 asian high and a close above the 0.5657 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence and puts the 0.5662 london high back in play
11:47 UTC
Intraday up leg stalling, lower highs since London high · RSI 42 · price 0.56484
Asian range break higher, now compressing between lower highs and a flat 0.5644-0.5647 floor.
London broke the Asian high at 0.5650 as USD softened on Williams' no-urgency remarks, printing a 0.5662 london high. Since then lower highs at 0.5657 and 0.5655 have pressed price back to the asian high and the 50% fib of the Asia-London leg, with the london low at 0.5644 holding. RSI(14) sits near 42, ATR about 4 pips, into US data.
Support: 0.56443, 0.56367, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.56499, 0.56545, 0.56619
What it said to watch
ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC, both inside the next hour, could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 0.5644 london low negates the Asian range break and puts the 0.5637 asian low back in play
Loss of the asian low exposes the prior-day low at 0.5626
M15 close above the lower-high trendline near 0.5655 reopens the 0.5662 london high
11:32 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since London open · RSI 49 · price 0.56483
Lower highs and lower lows off the 0.5662 session high, back inside the Asian range.
The kiwi's rebound on Williams' dovish tilt carried the Asian rally from 0.5637 into a false break above the Asian high at London open, with a rejection at the 0.5662 session high. Since then London has printed lower highs at 0.5657 and 0.5655 and dipped to a 0.5644 london low near the 61.8% retrace, with RSI(14) neutral around 49 and price below EMA20.
Support: 0.56443, 0.56367, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.56545, 0.56619
What it said to watch
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) land within the hour and could materially shift this read
An M15 close below the 0.5644 london low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5637 asian low
A close above the 0.5655 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 0.5662 session high back in play
Loss of the 0.5637 asian low reopens yesterday's prior low at 0.5626
11:17 UTC
Intraday up-leg stalling, lower highs in London · RSI 45 · price 0.56473
London range 0.5646–0.5662 with lower highs; back below Asian high.
London broke the 0.5650 Asian high to a 0.5662 session high as USD eased on Williams' dovish tilt. It has since printed lower highs at 0.5657 and 0.5654, and price is back below the Asian high, sitting on the 0.5646 London low near the 38.2% fib of the rally from Tuesday's 0.5626 low. RSI(14) is neutral at 45 and price sits just under both EMAs.
Support: 0.56457, 0.56335, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.5650, 0.56545, 0.56619
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5646 London low opens the 50% fib near 0.5644 and the 0.5634 Asian low, with the 0.5626 Tuesday low below
A close back above the 0.5650 Asian high and the lower-highs trendline near 0.5654 would neutralise the fading London structure
The 0.5662 session high caps the range; a break above it would extend the rally from the Tuesday low
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC, about an hour out, could materially shift this read
Lower highs inside 0.5646–0.5662 after HH/HL rally from 0.5626.
The Williams-driven rebound from the 0.5626 swing low broke the Asian range and ran to a 0.5662 session high at London open, where it met rejection. Since then the pair has printed lower highs into 0.5655 while the 0.5646 London low holds, leaving price pinned at 0.5650 just under EMA20 late in London ahead of US data.
Support: 0.56457, 0.56367, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.56545, 0.56619
What it said to watch
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.5655 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence and reopens the 0.5662 session high
Failure to hold the 0.5646 London low exposes the 0.5637 Asian low, with the 0.5626 swing low below
10:47 UTC
Rebound off 0.5626, stalling below London high · RSI 45 · price 0.56492
London range 0.5646–0.5662 above the Asian range.
London open broke above the Asian high near 0.5650 on the Williams-led USD pullback, but supply capped the move twice at the 0.5662 London high. Price has since printed a lower high near 0.5655 and is back at 0.5649, sitting on the 38.2% of the rebound fib from the 0.5626 swing low. The London low at 0.5646 has held twice.
Support: 0.5646, 0.5637, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.5655, 0.5662
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5646 london low exposes the 0.5637 asian low and the rising support line
Close above the 0.5655 lower high reopens the 0.5662 london high; a break there ends the range read
US ADP (12:15 GMT) and core PCE (12:30 GMT) during the first hours of NY could materially shift this read
Loss of the 50% rebound fib near 0.5644 would put the 0.5626 swing low back in play
10:33 UTC
Intraday up-leg, now pausing · RSI 49 · price 0.56527
Asian range break higher, then 0.5646–0.5662 consolidation with a lower high.
The pre-London rally, tracking Williams' 'no urgency' remark and the China PMI beat, broke the asian high at 0.5650 and set a session high at 0.5662 in the first hour of London. Pullbacks since have held the london low at 0.5646, near the 61.8% fib of the leg, but a lower high at 0.5657 leaves price mid-range at 0.5653 with RSI(14) neutral near 49.
Support: 0.56499, 0.56457, 0.56367
Resistance: 0.56573, 0.56619
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5646 london low and the rising support line puts price back inside the Asian range, toward the 0.5637 asian low
Close above the 0.5657 lower high, then the 0.5662 session high, extends the London breakout
US ADP (12:15 GMT) and core PCE (12:30 GMT) could materially shift this read; ATR is only ~4.7 pips going in
Compressing between 0.5646 and 0.5662 after an Asian range break.
Late in the Asia session, NZDUSD broke above the Asian range top near 0.5650 and ran to a 0.5662 session high at the London open. The move extends the rebound from yesterday's 0.5626 NY low, after Williams' 'no urgency' remarks on an October Fed hike. Mid-London, price is compressing between the 0.5646 London low, near the 50–61.8% fib of the Asia-London leg, and a lower high at 0.5657, with RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 0.5646, 0.5634, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.5657, 0.5662
What it said to watch
US ADP (12:15 GMT) and core PCE (12:30 GMT) in ~2h could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 0.5646 London low reopens the Asian low at 0.5634
M15 close above the 0.5662 session high breaks the lower-high trendline sequence
Loss of 0.5634 would put yesterday's 0.5626 NY low back in view
10:03 UTC
Range after London rejection, momentum neutral · RSI 50 · price 0.56512
Lower highs from 0.5662 pressing on flat london lows near 0.5646.
NZD extended its Williams-driven rebound out of the Asian range into London, but the london high at 0.5662 marked a false break of the prior-day top and was rejected. Price has since held the london lows at 0.5646 twice, near the 61.8% retrace of the asian low-to-london high leg, while a lower high at 0.5657 compresses the box. RSI(14) sits at 50 and the pair is just above EMA20, mid-London.
Support: 0.5646, 0.5637, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.5657, 0.5662
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5646 london lows breaks the 61.8% retrace and exposes the 0.5637 asian low
Close above the 0.5657 lower high and the london highs trendline reopens the 0.5662 london high
US ADP at 12:15 GMT and core PCE at 12:30 GMT, about 2h out, could materially shift this read
Loss of the asian low puts the 0.5626 prior low from Tuesday's NY session back in play
London rotation 0.5646–0.5662 after Asian range break; lower highs against a flat floor.
Williams' no-urgency Fed remarks lifted NZD out of the 0.5637–0.5650 Asian range, and London pushed to a session high of 0.5662, just above yesterday's 0.5660 top, before rejection. Mid-London, price is back retesting the Asian high near 0.5650, with a lower high at 0.5657 capping and the London low at 0.5646 aligned with the 61.8% retracement of the Asian low–session high leg.
Support: 0.5646, 0.56367
Resistance: 0.56573, 0.56619
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5646 London low (61.8%) exposes the 0.5637 Asian low
Close above the 0.5657 lower high breaks the descending trendline and reopens the 0.5662 session high
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC, f/c 3.3%) could materially shift this read
Asian range break higher, then lower highs into a flat 0.5646 floor.
Early London broke the Asian range high at 0.5650 as USD eased on Williams' no-urgency remarks. The move was rejected at the 0.5662 session high, near yesterday's top. Since then a lower high at 0.5657 and a falling trendline have pressed price back onto the Asian high, while the 0.5646 London low holds at the 61.8% retracement of the asian low–session high leg. RSI(14) is neutral at 51.
Support: 0.5646, 0.5637, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.5657, 0.5662
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.5646 london low breaks the post-breakout floor and exposes the 0.5637 asian low
A close above the 0.5657 lower high and the falling trendline reopens the 0.5662 session high
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) in ~3h could materially shift this read
Loss of the 0.5637 asian low puts the 0.5626 prior low from Tuesday's NY session in view
09:17 UTC
Intraday bounce stalling, lower highs in London · RSI 50 · price 0.56485
London range 0.5646–0.5662 after Asian range break; lower high at 0.5657.
The Williams-driven rebound broke the Asian high near 0.5650 into London, but supply capped the move at the 0.5662 session high, level with yesterday's peak, and produced a lower high at 0.5657. Mid-London, price is back at the Asian high and the 38.2% retracement of the 0.5626–0.5662 leg, with the london low at 0.5646 just below. RSI(14) is neutral at 50.
Support: 0.5646, 0.5644, 0.5637
Resistance: 0.5650, 0.5657, 0.5662
What it said to watch
M15 close below the london low at 0.5646 exposes the 50% fib at 0.5644 and the asian low at 0.5637
Close back above the 0.5657 lower high reopens the 0.5662 session high
US ADP (12:15 GMT) and core PCE (12:30 GMT) in ~3h could materially shift this read
NZDUSD broke above the Asian range just before London as Williams' 'no urgency' remarks softened USD, briefly clearing yesterday's 0.5660 high to a 0.5662 session high before rejection. The London low at 0.5647, near the 61.8% fib of the rally, held twice, while a lower high at 0.5657 caps the rebound. RSI(14) is neutral at 57.
Support: 0.5647, 0.5634, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.5657, 0.5662
What it said to watch
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 0.5647 london low returns price to the Asian range, with the asian low at 0.5634 and yesterday's prior low at 0.5626 beneath
Close above the 0.5657 lower high puts the 0.5662 session high back in play; acceptance above it extends the breakout
Loss of rising support from the late-Asia 0.5637 low would break the higher-low chain
Higher lows since Asia; London range 0.5647–0.5662.
London broke above the 0.5636–0.5650 Asian range, helped by a softer USD after Williams' 'no urgency' remark on an October Fed hike. The move was rejected twice at the 0.5662 session high, just above yesterday's 0.5660 peak. The 0.5647 London low held twice, near the 61.8% fib of the Asia-to-London leg, and price has rotated back to 0.5656 with RSI(14) near 60.
Support: 0.5650, 0.5647, 0.5636
Resistance: 0.5662
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5662 session high breaks the London range to the upside
Loss of the 0.5650 round number and the 0.5647 London low puts price back inside the Asian range toward the 0.5636 Asian low
A break of the rising trendline from the Asian low weakens the higher-low sequence
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Asian range break, now holding a 0.5647–0.5662 session range.
The European open broke the Asian high near 0.5650 on the Williams-driven USD dip, but the London push to the 0.5662 session high, just through yesterday's 0.5660 peak, was rejected. Twin lows at 0.5647, near the 61.8% of the London leg, have held twice since. Price is now capped by a lower high at 0.5655.
Support: 0.5650, 0.5647, 0.5634
Resistance: 0.5655, 0.5662
What it said to watch
M15 close below the twin lows at 0.5647 puts price back inside the Asian range and exposes the asian low at 0.5634
Close above the 0.5655 lower high and the 0.5662 session high extends the London breakout
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and Core PCE (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs after 0.5662 London top, price back at Asian high.
Early London pushed through the 0.5650 Asian high to a 0.5662 session high, briefly clearing yesterday's 0.5660 top before a double top formed and price faded back to the 0.5647 london low, between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the 0.5637–0.5662 rally. The dollar stays firm near YTD highs ahead of US data, and RSI(14) around 55 is neutral.
Support: 0.56468, 0.56367, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.56499, 0.56619
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5647 london low (61.8% fib) exposes the 0.5637 swing low
Reclaim of the 0.5650 asian high reopens a test of the 0.5662 session high / double top
Break of the 0.5637 swing low puts the 0.5626 prior low (0.5625 support) in play
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Asia; false break above prior high.
The Asia-to-London rally, helped by the China PMI beat and a softer DXY in Asia, lifted NZDUSD from the 0.5637 Asian low through Tuesday's 0.5660 prior high. The 0.5662 session high was rejected in the first hour of London as USD firmed, and price has slipped back to 0.5650, near the 50% fib of the leg with the rising trendline still intact.
Support: 0.56468, 0.56367, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.5660, 0.56619
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5647 swing low breaks the rising trendline and exposes the 0.5637 Asian low
M15 close back above the 0.5660 prior high negates the false-break read and puts the 0.5662 session high back in play
A move below the Asian low would bring Tuesday's 0.5626 NY low back into view
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and Core PCE (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Rising lows since 04:30 UTC, capped at 0.5660–0.5662.
A pre-London rally, helped by the China PMI beat and an easing DXY, took price out of the Asian range high near 0.5650. The London open then stalled at the 0.5662 session high, just above yesterday's 0.5660 prior high, and price is drifting back toward the Asian high on the rising lows line with RSI(14) near 58.
Support: 0.56499, 0.56468, 0.56363
Resistance: 0.5660, 0.56619
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5662 session high clears the prior high cap at 0.5660
M15 close below the rising lows line and the 0.5647 swing low puts price back inside the Asian range
Loss of the 0.5636 Asian low reopens yesterday's 0.5626 low, near the 0.5625 support cited in the news
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and Core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
07:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at prior high · RSI 62 · price 0.56545
Higher lows off 0.5626; Asian range broken higher, London open rejected at 0.5662.
Early Europe broke the Asian range top near 0.5650, extending the short-covering bounce off yesterday's 0.5626 prior low after the China PMI beat. The first hour of London poked just above yesterday's 0.5660 high to a 0.5662 session high and was rejected back to 0.5654. Higher lows at the 0.5637 asian low and the 0.5647 swing low keep the micro uptrend intact.
Support: 0.56468, 0.56367, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.56619
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5662 session high negates the rejection and extends the higher-high chain
Break of the 0.5647 swing low ends the higher-low sequence and exposes the 0.5637 asian low
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and Core PCE (12:30 UTC, f/c 3.3%) could materially shift this read; loss of the 0.5626 prior low reopens the slide
07:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend off Asia lows, testing prior high · RSI 66 · price 0.56593
Asian range broken higher, higher lows since 05:15 UTC, capped at prior-day high.
The pre-London rally broke the Asian high at 0.5650 and tagged 0.5661, matching yesterday's prior high at 0.5660. A pullback to the 0.5647 swing low held on a retest of the old range top, and price is back pressing 0.5660 at London open. The bounce tracks the China PMI beat and an easing DXY; RSI(14) at 66 is firm but not stretched, and rising lows off the Asian low are intact.
Support: 0.5650, 0.56468, 0.56367
Resistance: 0.56609
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5661 prior high opens the 0.5665–0.5680 area, the last wk high zone
Failure to hold the 0.5647 swing low and the 0.5650 asian high puts price back inside the Asian range toward the 0.5637 asian low
A break of the rising lows line from the 05:15 UTC asian low weakens the intraday uptrend read
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and Core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
07:03 UTC
Intraday recovery, stalled at prior high · RSI 54 · price 0.56506
Higher lows since Asian low; rejection at 0.5661.
At the London open the pair sits at 0.5650. A pre-London push, helped by the China PMI beat, broke the Asian range higher and briefly took out the prior high at 0.5661 before being rejected. The pullback low at 0.5647 held near the 61.8% retracement of the 0.5637–0.5661 leg, and RSI(14) is neutral at ~54.
Support: 0.56468, 0.56367, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.56609
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5661 prior high negates the false break read
Close below the 0.5647 pullback low breaks the rising lows trendline and exposes the asian low at 0.5637
Failure to hold the 0.5626 prior low (Tuesday's 0.5625 cushion) confirms a lower-low
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range broken higher, stalling at session high.
A late-Asia push cleared the Asian range, with the 0.5650 asia high giving way. Price tagged a 0.5661 session high, a marginal break of yesterday's 0.5660 London high, then printed a quick rejection back to 0.5655. The China PMI beat and a softer DXY supported the bid, and the 0.5637 swing low extends the higher-low sequence off yesterday's 0.5626 prior low.
Support: 0.5650, 0.5637, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.5661
What it said to watch
Hold above the 0.5650 asia high, near the fib 50% at 0.5649, keeps the breakout intact into London open
M15 close back below the 0.5637 swing low and the higher-low trendline invalidates the recovery read
Sustained close above the 0.5661 session high clears yesterday's high and opens the 0.5665–0.5680 area
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC, f/c 3.3%) could materially shift this read
Loss of the 0.5626 prior low puts the 0.5600 area in focus
06:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend off NY low, RSI hot · RSI 72 · price 0.56565
Late-Asia break above Asian range, rising lows.
A late-Asia push cleared the 0.5650 Asian high as DXY eased and China's PMI beat, lifting price to 0.5656 ahead of the London open with RSI(14) at 72. The rally from the NY low at 0.5626 has retraced most of yesterday's NY-session drop from the 0.5660 prior high, and the rising lows from 0.5626 through the 0.5637 swing low are intact.
Support: 0.5650, 0.56367, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.5660
What it said to watch
A retest that holds the 0.5650 asian high keeps the range break valid. A drop back inside the Asian range reopens 0.5637.
An M15 close above the 0.5660 prior high clears the origin of yesterday's NY sell-off.
A break of the 0.5637 swing low breaks the rising lows line from the 0.5626 NY low.
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read.
Retesting Asian range top at 0.5650, higher lows off 0.5626.
Late Asia, about an hour before London open. NZD/USD is making a second test of the 0.5650 asian high, lifted by a softer DXY and the China PMI beat off yesterday's 0.5626 prior low. The trendline of higher lows from 0.5626 through the 0.5637 asian low is intact, with RSI(14) near 61 and ATR around 4 pips.
Support: 0.56367, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.56503, 0.5660
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5650 asian high breaks the Asian range and exposes the 0.5660 prior high
Failure to hold the 0.5637 asian low breaks the trendline and reopens the 0.5626 prior low
Stalling at 0.5650 again leaves a flat range top and keeps price inside the Asian range
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
05:32 UTC
Recovering off NY low, higher lows · RSI 56 · price 0.56443
Higher-low sequence inside 0.5637–0.5650 Asian range.
Late Asia session, about 1.5h before London open. Price has built higher lows off the 0.5626 NY low and just bounced from the 0.5637 swing low back to 0.5644, inside a 0.5637–0.5650 Asian range. The China PMI beat and a softer DXY lifted the Asia bid, but supply capped the move at the 0.5650 asia high; RSI(14) near 56, ATR about 4 pips.
Support: 0.56367, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.56499, 0.56648
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5650 asia high breaks the Asian range and puts the 0.5665 prior high in view
Loss of the 0.5637 swing low breaks the higher-lows line and reopens the 0.5626 ny low (0.5625 cushion)
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and Core PCE (12:30 UTC, f/c 3.3%) could materially shift this read
London open typically sets the first test of the Asian range edges
05:17 UTC
Flat after NY sell-off, momentum soft · RSI 44 · price 0.56394
Asian range 0.5637–0.5650 above the 0.5626 NY low.
After the NY sell-off stalled at the 0.5626 NY low, NZDUSD built an Asian range of 0.5637–0.5650 as DXY eased and China's PMI beat. The 0.5650 asia high rejected price, which has slipped back to the 50% retracement of the NY low to asia high move near 0.5638. RSI(14) is 44, price sits just below both EMAs, and it is late Asia with London yet to open.
Support: 0.5637, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.5650, 0.5660
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5637 asia low breaks the range floor and exposes the 0.5626 ny low
Close above the 0.5650 asia high reopens the 0.5660 london high from yesterday
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC, f/c 3.3%) could materially shift this read
Asian range 0.5637–0.5650, price back in lower half.
NZDUSD rebounded off the 0.5626 NY low as DXY eased and China's PMI beat, but the Asian high at 0.5650 drew a rejection and price slipped back to 0.5640, between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the bounce. Late Asia session, RSI(14) at 45 and price under EMA20, still inside the 0.5637–0.5650 range.
Support: 0.56365, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.56499, 0.5660
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5637 asian low exposes the 61.8% fib near 0.5635 and the 0.5626 ny low
Break above the 0.5650 asian high puts the 0.5660 prior high back in view
London open in ~2h is likely to test the Asian range edges
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and Core PCE (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
04:32 UTC
Intraday recovery off NY low, stalling below 0.5650 · RSI 51 · price 0.56403
Asia higher-low chain intact; rejection at 0.5650 now retesting the rising trendline.
Late Asia session. NZD/USD built higher lows off the 0.5626 NY low (the 0.5625 floor) as DXY eased and China's PMI beat, but it was rejected at the 0.5650 asia high and has slipped back to the 38.2% fib near 0.5640. Price is sitting on the rising trendline just below EMA20/EMA50, with RSI(14) neutral near 51.
Support: 0.5639, 0.5636, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.5645, 0.5650, 0.5665
What it said to watch
M15 close below the trendline and 0.5636 asian low breaks the Asia higher-low chain, exposing the 0.5626 ny low
Recovery through the 0.5645 asia shelf and 0.5650 asia high reopens the 0.5665 day high
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and Core PCE (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read; quarter-end flows at the London fix add noise
04:17 UTC
Recovering off NY low, momentum flat · RSI 55 · price 0.5644
Higher lows through Asia, capped at 0.5650 Asian high.
NZD/USD is grinding higher off the 0.5626 NY low, which held near the 0.5625 support flagged in the news digest. The bounce came as DXY eased and China's PMI beat. Late in the Asia session the pair was rejected at the 0.5650 Asian high and is now holding just above EMA20 at 0.5644, with higher lows intact along the rising trendline and price near the 23.6% fib of the NY-low-to-Asian-high move.
Support: 0.5637, 0.5630, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.5650, 0.5660, 0.5665
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5650 Asian high opens the 0.5660 London high and 0.5665 prior high
Break of the 0.5637 swing low and rising trendline exposes the 0.5630 rollover low
Loss of the 0.5626 NY low would put the pair back below 0.5625 support
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
London open and quarter-end flows may test the Asian range
Asia session has built higher lows off the 0.5634 asian low on a mild DXY pullback and the China PMI beat, clawing back yesterday's NY slide to the 0.5626 ny low. The push met a rejection at the 0.5650 round number, and price now sits just above the 0.5643 pullback low with RSI(14) near 57.
Support: 0.56432, 0.56335, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.5650, 0.5666
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5650 round number exposes the 0.5660–0.5666 prior high from yesterday's London session
Loss of the 0.5643 pullback low and the Asia rising trendline puts the 0.5634 asian low back in play
Failure to hold the 0.5626 ny low reopens the 0.5600 range floor
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read; quarter-end fix flows add noise
03:32 UTC
Asia recovery, below 0.5650 · RSI 58 · price 0.56461
Asia higher highs and higher lows testing 61.8% of NY drop.
Late in the Asia session, price has put in higher highs and higher lows off the 0.5634 asia low. It is now retesting the 0.5647 session high, the 61.8% retrace of the NY drop from the 0.5660 prior high to the 0.5626 day low. The soft ANZ survey barely registered, and the 0.5650 psych level just overhead is the break level after yesterday's close below it. RSI(14) sits near 58 and ATR is about 4 pips.
Support: 0.5642, 0.5634, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.5647, 0.5650, 0.5660
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.5650 psych level opens the 0.5660 prior high
Rejection at the 0.5647 session high keeps the NY drop fib retrace capped at 61.8%
A break of the 0.5642 higher low and the Asia rising lows line exposes the 0.5634 asia low, then the 0.5626 day low
US ADP and PCE (12:15/12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
03:17 UTC
Intraday recovery within a broader intraday decline · RSI 57 · price 0.56447
Asian higher-low chain pressing the late NY high and 61.8% retrace.
Late Asia session is grinding higher off the 0.5634 Asian low in a chain of higher lows. Price is now pressing the 0.5647 late NY high, which lines up with the 61.8% fib of the 0.5660–0.5626 NY sell-off. The bounce sits under the 0.5650 broken floor against a firm USD backdrop, with RSI(14) at 57 and ATR near 4 pips.
Support: 0.5640, 0.56335, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.56466, 0.5650, 0.5660
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5647 late NY high opens a test of the 0.5650 broken floor, with the 0.5660 swing high above
Loss of the 0.5640 higher low and the higher-lows trendline ends the Asian recovery and exposes the 0.5634 Asian low, then the 0.5626 NY low
London open is the first test of whether the Asian range top holds
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and PCE (12:30 UTC) later today could materially shift this read
The Asia session has built higher lows off the 0.5634 asian low. Price is at 0.5645, having retraced about half of yesterday's NY drop from 0.5660 to the 0.5626 day low as the USD bid held and the soft ANZ surveys weighed on NZD. The 0.5647 swing high (near the 61.8% fib) and the 0.5650 broken floor sit directly overhead, with RSI(14) near 61 and no extremes.
Support: 0.5640, 0.56335, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.56466, 0.5650
What it said to watch
A break below the 0.5640 session hl ends the Asian higher-low chain and trendline
An M15 close above the 0.5650 broken floor invalidates the retracement read
A rejection at the 0.5647 swing high keeps the NY drop structure intact toward the 0.5626 day low
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
02:32 UTC
Recovering from NY low, stalling in Asia · RSI 58 · price 0.56428
Asian range 0.5634–0.5645, higher lows off 0.5626.
Mid-Asia session, price is pinned under the asian high at 0.5645. That cap has rejected four bars in a row, right at the 50% retrace of the 0.5660–0.5626 London-to-NY drop, while asian lows near 0.5637 keep printing higher lows off yesterday's 0.5626 ny low. Soft ANZ surveys drew little reaction, and the USD bid keeps the 0.5650 broken floor overhead.
Support: 0.5637, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.56452, 0.5650, 0.5660
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5645 asian high and 61.8% retrace opens a test of the 0.5650 broken floor
Break below 0.5637 asian lows and the higher-low trendline puts the 0.5626 ny low back in play
Reclaim of 0.5650 targets the 0.5660 london high
US ADP 12:15 UTC and PCE 12:30 UTC later today could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 0.5626, highs capped 0.5645–0.5647.
The Fed-hike USD bid drove NZD down to the 0.5626 swing low during NY hours. Since then, Asia has printed higher lows at the 0.5634 asian low, while supply caps at 0.5645–0.5647, the NY bounce high and 38.2% retrace of yesterday's drop. Mid-Asia, price sits near the range top with RSI(14) near 58 and ATR a quiet ~4 pips.
Support: 0.56335, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.56466, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5647 bounce high clears the 38.2% retrace and puts the 0.5650 broken floor in play
Break of the 0.5634 asian low snaps the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 0.5626 swing low
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) today could materially shift this read
02:03 UTC
Sideways after NY sell-off, lows rising · RSI 60 · price 0.56429
Asian range 0.5633–0.5647, testing range top.
Firm USD dragged NZDUSD from the 0.5660 NY high to a 0.5626 session low. It has since held a 0.5633–0.5647 Asian range with rising lows, and the soft ANZ surveys barely registered. Mid-Asia, price sits just above the ema20 near 0.5640 and presses the swing high at 0.5647, the 61.8% of the NY sell-off fib, still capped below the 0.5650 broken floor.
Support: 0.5640, 0.56335, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.56466, 0.5650, 0.5660
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5647 swing high puts the 0.5650 broken floor, then the 0.5660 ny high, in play
Break of the rising lows trendline and the 0.5633 asian low exposes the 0.5626 session low
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE/GDP (12:30 UTC) today could materially shift this read
Asian range 0.5634–0.5645 with higher lows, capped by 0.5647 bounce high.
Asia session is pressing the top of its range into the 0.5647 bounce high, which sits at the 61.8% retrace of yesterday's 0.5660 ny high to 0.5626 swing low drop. That slide followed the RBA-driven break of the 0.5650 broken floor. Higher lows at 0.5637 through Asia point to a corrective rebound, with supply still capping below 0.5650.
Support: 0.5637, 0.56335, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.56466, 0.5650, 0.5660
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5647 bounce high and 61.8% retrace opens a retest of the 0.5650 broken floor
Loss of the 0.5637 higher lows and the 0.56335 asian low returns focus to the 0.5626 swing low
Month-end flows, then US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) later today, could materially shift this read
NZ Building Permits at 21:45 UTC is secondary event risk for NZD
Tight Asian range 0.56335–0.56417 inside lower-high sequence.
After the post-RBA slide into a 0.56260 swing low during NY hours, the rebound stalled at 0.56466, the NY swing high, and highs have stepped lower since. Asia is compressing in an 8-pip band between the Asian low at 0.56335, near the 61.8% retrace of that bounce, and the Asian high at 0.56417. Price is testing the top of the band with RSI(14) near 49 and ATR(14) around 4 pips.
Support: 0.56335, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.56417, 0.56466, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.56417 Asian high tests the lower-high trendline toward the 0.56466 NY swing high
Break of the 0.56335 Asian low exposes the 0.56260 swing low
Reclaim of 0.5650 psych, the broken floor, would invalidate the lower-high read
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and Core PCE (12:30 UTC) today could materially shift this read
Month- and quarter-end flows on Sep 30 may distort intraday ranges
01:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, pausing in Asia · RSI 47 · price 0.5638
Lower highs from 0.5677; tight Asian range 0.5634–0.5644 above the NY low.
The Asia session is holding a 10-pip band between the asian high at 0.5644 and the asian low at 0.5634. This follows NY's USD-driven slide to the 0.5626 ny low, where the rebound stalled at the 61.8% of the NY leg fib (swing high 0.5647). RSI(14) sits near 47, price is pinned to flat EMAs and ATR is roughly 4 pips, so no directional setup is in play.
Support: 0.5634, 0.5626, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5644, 0.5647, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close below the asian low at 0.5634 exposes the ny low at 0.5626. A break there extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5600 range floor.
Close above the swing high at 0.5647 (the 61.8% of the NY leg) breaks the lower-high chain and brings the 0.5650 broken floor back into view.
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) later today could materially shift this read.
01:04 UTC
Downtrend, paused in a tight Asian range · RSI 53 · price 0.56399
Lower highs from 0.5660; bounce off the 0.5626 NY low capped at the 61.8% fib, now a 0.5634–0.5644 Asian range.
The NY bounce off the 0.5626 NY low met rejection at the 61.8% fib of the 0.5660–0.5626 leg (0.5647), and the Asia session is now holding a 0.5634–0.5644 range with ATR near 4 pips. Price sits below the 0.5650 broken floor after the soft RBA guidance and USD bid, and the softer ANZ surveys drew little reaction.
Support: 0.5634, 0.5626, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5644, 0.5650, 0.5660
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5634 asian low exposes the 0.5626 ny low; a break there extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5600 range floor
A close above the 0.5644 asian high and the 0.5647 fib level puts the 0.5650 broken floor back in play; acceptance above it opens the path to the 0.5660 london high
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) later today could materially shift this read
00:47 UTC
Downtrend, pausing above the NY low · RSI 56 · price 0.56397
Lower highs from 0.5677; tight Asian range 0.5633–0.5644 above the 0.5626 NY low.
The RBA-driven slide broke 0.5650 psych and extended in NY to the 0.5626 NY low on firm USD and yields. The pair is now boxed in a 0.5633 asian low to 0.5644 session high Asia session range, stalling at the 38.2–50% zone of the NY sell-off fib, below the lower highs line and the 0.5647 swing high.
Support: 0.56335, 0.56302, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.56439, 0.56466, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5644 session high and 0.5647 swing high breaks the lower highs sequence and brings 0.5650 psych into play
Failure to hold the 0.5633 asian low exposes the 0.5630 rollover low and the 0.5626 NY low
Month-end flows and US ADP / Core PCE at 12:15–12:30 UTC today could materially shift this read
Lower highs capping, higher lows forming; early Asia compression 0.5636–0.5644.
The kiwi slid from its 0.5677 Asia high after the RBA hike came with softer guidance. It extended to the 0.5626 NY low as USD tracked yields higher, and that low has held since. Early Asia is compressing between the 0.5636 higher low and the 0.5644 session high, which sits at the 50% retrace of the NY decline, with price pinned at EMA20/EMA50 and RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 0.56363, 0.56335, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.56439, 0.56466, 0.5650
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.5644 session high and the lower-highs trendline opens the 0.5647 swing high and the 0.5650 psych level
Failure to hold the 0.5636 higher low and the 0.5633 asia low exposes the 0.5626 ny low
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) later today could materially shift this read, and month-end flows add noise
Lower highs after NY low; tight early-Asia range under prior lows.
The post-RBA slide broke the Asian and London lows and bottomed at the 0.5626 NY low. The bounce was rejected at the 0.5647 bounce high, the 61.8% fib of the leg from the 0.5660 london high. Early Asia is holding 0.5634–0.5644, sitting on a flat EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral near 48, as USD haven and yield demand keep the kiwi heavy.
Support: 0.56335, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.5644, 0.56466, 0.5660
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5647 bounce high clears the 61.8% fib and breaks the lower-high sequence toward the 0.5660 london high
0.5644 prior lows (old Asian/London floor) capping for a third time reinforces the rejection read
Loss of the 0.5634 swing low exposes the 0.5626 ny low
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) later Wed are the next USD catalysts that could reset this range
00:03 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in range · RSI 49 · price 0.56389
Lower highs intact; tight Asian range above the NY low.
Tuesday's slide through 0.5650 came on the RBA's softer guidance and a firm USD, and it bottomed at the NY low of 0.5626. The bounce stalled at the 0.5647 bounce high, near the 61.8% fib of the NY leg. Early Asia is holding a narrow 0.5634–0.5644 range with price at the 38.2% retrace and RSI(14) near 49, no expansion yet.
Support: 0.56335, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.5644, 0.56466, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5647 bounce high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 0.5650 round number
Break of the 0.5634 asian low exposes the 0.5626 ny low
Asian high at 0.5644 aligns with the 50% fib; rejection there keeps the range read
US ADP and core PCE Wed 12:15–12:30 UTC could materially shift this read