NZD/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Tuesday, 29 September 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the NZD/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:47 UTC
Downtrend, pausing after bounce · RSI 55 · price 0.56389
Lower-high consolidation above the NY low.
The post-RBA slide from the 0.5677 Asian high ran through London and NY to a 0.5626 NY low, with haven USD demand behind it, before an 18:00 UTC bounce to 0.5647 (bounce high). Early Asia is now compressing between the 0.5634 swing low and a 0.5644 lower high, holding near the 61.8% fib of the bounce. RSI(14) is neutral near 55, ATR(14) about 5 pips, and price sits just above EMA20 but below EMA50.
Support: 0.56335, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.5644, 0.56466, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5647 bounce high breaks the lower-high sequence and brings 0.5650 psych, the broken level, back into play
Failure to hold the 0.5634 swing low and 61.8% fib reopens the 0.5626 NY low
US ADP and core PCE (Wed 12:15–12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read later in the day
Lower highs from 0.5677; bounce capped at 61.8%, tight Asian range.
The post-RBA sell-off from the 0.5677 high ran through NY to a 0.5626 day low, keeping the pair under the 0.5650 round number on haven USD demand. The rebound stalled at 0.5647, the 61.8% fib of the NY leg. Early Asia is holding a 0.5634–0.5643 range around EMA20, with RSI(14) near 56 and ATR at about 4.6 pips.
Support: 0.56335, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.56435, 0.56466, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5643 asia high and the 0.5647 61.8% fib breaks the lower-high sequence and exposes the 0.5650 round number
Failure to hold the 0.5634 asia low reopens the 0.5626 day low
US ADP and Core PCE (Wed 12:15–12:30 UTC) plus month-end flows could materially shift this read
23:17 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in a tight range · RSI 48 · price 0.56376
Lower highs from 0.5677; 0.5633–0.5644 range above the 0.5626 NY low.
Kiwi fell about 50 pips from the 0.5677 Asia high to a 0.5626 NY low as the yield- and Hormuz-driven USD bid took out the 0.5650 floor, now a broken floor overhead. Since then price has held a 0.5633–0.5644 box into early Asia, with repeated rejection at the range top below the 38.2% fib (0.5645) and a lower highs line capping bounces. RSI(14) is neutral near 48 and price sits on EMA20, below EMA50.
Support: 0.56335, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.5644, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5644 range top and 38.2% fib breaks the lower highs line and exposes the 0.5650 broken floor
Loss of the 0.5633 swing low reopens the 0.5626 NY low
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and Core PCE (12:30 UTC) Wed could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lows through London and NY; post-NY bounce capped, 0.5630–0.5644 range.
The firm USD pushed NY hours through the 0.5650 prior floor to a 0.5626 day low. The late bounce was rejected at 0.5647, the 61.8% fib of the london high-to-day-low leg, just above the 0.5644 asian low. Early Asia is holding 0.5630–0.5644, with the rollover low at 0.5630 as first support and RSI(14) at 45.
Support: 0.5630, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.5644, 0.5650, 0.5660
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5644 asian low and the 61.8% fib reopens the 0.5650 prior floor and the 0.5660 london high
Loss of the 0.5630 rollover low exposes the 0.5626 day low; a break extends the lower-low chain
US ADP and core PCE at 12:15–12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.5677 Asian high; late-NY bounce capped below 0.5650.
NZD/USD gave up the 0.5650 area through London and NY as the USD stayed bid on Fed-hike pricing and Hormuz risk, printing a session low at 0.5626. The late-NY bounce stalled at the 61.8% retrace near 0.5647, and early Asia is fading from a lower high at 0.5644 toward the rollover low at 0.5630.
Support: 0.5630, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.5644, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 0.5650, the former floor, would break the descending trendline and neutralise the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold 0.5626 session low extends the lower-low chain; the digest flags 0.5600 as the next range floor
US ADP and core PCE (Wed 12:15–12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
22:40 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in early Asia · RSI 48 · price 0.56398
Lower highs at 0.5677, 0.5660 and 0.5647 after the 0.5626 low; tight 0.5638–0.5647 range.
London capped at the 0.5660 london high. NY hours then took NZD through the 0.5650 floor to a 0.5626 day low as the USD stayed bid on Fed-hike pricing. The post-NY bounce stalled at the 0.5647 swing high, the 61.8% retracement of the sell-off, and early Asia is holding just above the 0.5638 range base with RSI(14) near 48.
Support: 0.5638, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.5647, 0.5650, 0.5660
What it said to watch
A close back above the 0.5650 broken floor would break the lower-high chain from the 0.5660 london high
Failure at the 0.5638 range base reopens the 0.5626 day low
A close above the 0.5647 swing high would clear the 61.8% retracement of the NY sell-off
US ADP and core PCE (Wed 12:15/12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
22:18 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in a bounce · RSI 51 · price 0.56428
Lower high at 0.5660, NY low 0.5626, now ranging 0.5638–0.5647.
Firm USD on Hormuz tension and Fed-hike bets pushed NY through the 0.5650 floor to a session low at 0.5626. The late-NY rebound stalled at the 0.5647 swing high, near the 61.8% fib of the 0.5660–0.5626 drop. Early Asia is holding a tight 0.5638–0.5647 range above the late-ny base, and the spread-driven rollover dip to 0.5630 was quickly reclaimed.
Support: 0.5638, 0.5630, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.56466, 0.5650, 0.5660
What it said to watch
A close above the 0.5647 swing high puts the broken floor at 0.5650 back in play, with the london high at 0.5660 next
Loss of the 0.5638 late-ny base reopens the rollover low at 0.5630 and the 0.5626 session low
US ADP and core PCE Wed 12:15–12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
22:04 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in early Asia · RSI 47 · price 0.56402
Lower-high/lower-low chain; tight range under the 61.8% retrace.
NY hours broke the 0.5650 prior floor and printed a day low at 0.5626 as the USD bid held on Fed-hike pricing. The rebound was rejected at the 0.5647 bounce high, the 61.8% retrace of the 0.5660–0.5626 leg off the London high. Early Asia is holding a 0.5638–0.5647 range, and a thin-liquidity rollover spike to 0.5630 was quickly reclaimed above the range base.
Support: 0.5638, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.56466, 0.5650, 0.5660
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5647 bounce high and back over the 0.5650 prior floor breaks the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 0.5638 range base exposes the 0.5626 day low; a break there extends the lower-low chain
London high at 0.5660 caps the upside if the 61.8% gives way
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) Wednesday could materially shift this read
Lower highs; 61.8% retrace rejected, drifting back toward NY low.
NY session broke the 0.5650 prior floor as the 10Y above 5.2% kept USD bid, printing a session low at 0.5626. The late-NY rebound stalled at the 0.5647 rebound high, the 61.8% retrace of the NY selloff. Price has since slipped under the 0.5640 shelf after a thin rollover low at 0.5630.
Support: 0.5630, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.5640, 0.5647, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5647 rebound high breaks the lower-high chain and reopens the 0.5650 prior floor
Failure to hold the 0.5630 rollover low exposes the 0.5626 session low
Asia session holding below the 0.5640 shelf keeps the fib rejection intact
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) Wed could materially shift this read
LH/LL chain; bounce rejected at 61.8%, price back near NY low.
The 0.5650 floor gave way during NY hours as the USD stayed bid on 10Y yields above 5.2%, with the pair printing a session low at 0.5626. The late-NY bounce stalled at the 0.5647 swing high, near the 61.8% retracement of the NY selloff. The thin rollover bar knocked price back below the ema20 to 0.5631 as the Asia session opens.
Support: 0.5626, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5640, 0.5647, 0.5660
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5626 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5600 psych level
Reclaim of the ema20 near 0.5640 and then the 0.5647 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence; 0.5660 prior high sits above
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) Wednesday could materially shift this read
Rollover spreads distorted the 21:00 UTC bar; its 0.5630 low is less reliable than the NY low
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asia high; post-NY compression near 0.5640.
The Asia session high at 0.5677 faded into a London break of the Asian low. NY then extended to a day low at 0.5626 as the USD stayed bid on yields and Hormuz risk. The late-NY bounce was rejected at 0.5647, the bounce high and 61.8% of the 0.5660 lower high to day-low leg, and price is now compressing on the fib 38.2 at 0.5639 after NY close.
Support: 0.5639, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.56466, 0.5660
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the fib 38.2 at 0.5639 reopens the day low at 0.5626
M15 close above the 0.5647 bounce high breaks the lower-high sequence; the 0.5660 lower high and trendline sit above
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) Wed, plus Sep 30 month/quarter-end flows, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows; flat drift above micro base after rejection.
Lower highs from the 0.5677 Asian high kept NZD pressed as the USD bid on Hormuz risk and Fed repricing pushed it through the 0.5650 floor to a 0.5626 day low in NY. The late-NY bounce stalled at the 0.5646 bounce high, where the broken Asian low meets the 61.8% fib of the NY leg. Price is now drifting after NY close just above a 0.5638 micro base, with ATR(14) at about 3.7 pips.
Support: 0.5638, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.5646, 0.5660
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5646 bounce high breaks the lower-highs trendline; 0.5660 ny-open high is the next reference
Failure to hold the 0.5638 micro base reopens the 0.5626 day low
US ADP and PCE on Wed 12:15–12:30 UTC, plus quarter-end flows, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.5660; bounce capped below 0.5650.
NZD/USD broke the London low near 0.5642 during NY hours as the USD stayed bid on Fed repricing and Hormuz risk. It bottomed at the 0.5626 session low. The after-NY bounce stalled at the 61.8% fib of the 0.5660 london high to 0.5626 drop, just under 0.5650 psych, and price is drifting back to the 0.5638 pullback low with RSI(14) near 55.
Support: 0.5638, 0.5630, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.5647, 0.5650, 0.5660
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5647 61.8% fib and 0.5650 psych breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 0.5660 london high in view
Loss of the 0.5638 pullback low exposes the 0.5630 ny base and the 0.5626 session low
Break of 0.5626 session low confirms a fresh lower-low into the Asia session
US ADP and core PCE Wed 12:15/12:30 UTC, plus quarter-end flows, could materially shift this read
Lower highs under the broken London low; post-bounce drift toward ema20.
London broke below the Asian range, and NY extended the slide to a 0.5626 session low. The USD bid on Hormuz risk and Fed repricing held through the JOLTS miss. The late-NY bounce stalled at the 0.5647 bounce high, near the 61.8% fib of the NY sell-off, and is printing lower highs back under the 0.5642 London low with price sitting on ema20 around 0.5637.
Support: 0.5637, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.5642, 0.5647, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5647 bounce high and 0.5650 round number would negate the pullback line and the rejection read
Loss of ema20 near 0.5637 exposes the 0.5626 session low; a break there extends the lower-low chain
US ADP and core PCE Wed 12:15–12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs intact; bounce retesting broken london low from below.
NZD slid from the 0.5677 Asian high after the in-line RBA hike. It broke the 0.5642 london low during NY hours on the yield-driven USD bid and bottomed at the 0.5626 session low. The late-NY bounce stalled at the 0.5647 bounce high, the 61.8% fib of the 0.5660–0.5626 leg, just under the lower-highs trendline. Price now sits at 0.5640, below the broken london low, with RSI(14) neutral near 50.
Support: 0.5638, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.5642, 0.5647, 0.5660
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5647 bounce high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the sequence and exposes the 0.5660 ny open high
Failure to hold the 0.5638 pullback low re-exposes the 0.5626 session low
Acceptance back above the 0.5642 london low turns the retest into a reclaim
Thin Asia session open next; US ADP and core PCE Wed 12:15–12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the 0.5677 Asian high to the 0.5660 london high. The NY session then extended to a 0.5626 session low as the USD bid held on yields and Hormuz risk. The late-NY bounce stalled at the 0.5647 bounce high, the 61.8% retrace of that leg, and price is drifting back toward the ema20 near 0.5639.
Support: 0.5639, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.5647, 0.5660
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5647 bounce high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 0.5660 london high
Loss of the ema20 near 0.5639 puts the 0.5626 session low back in play
US ADP and core PCE Wed 12:15–12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.5660; bounce capped below 61.8% retrace.
NY broke below the Asian range and the London low near 0.5642, extending to a 0.5626 session low as the Hormuz and yields-driven USD bid held. The late-NY bounce hit a 0.56466 bounce high, just shy of the 61.8% fib of the NY sell-off, and price now sits at EMA50 near 0.5642 with RSI(14) around 58.
Support: 0.5639, 0.5630, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.56466, 0.5650, 0.5660
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5647 bounce high and the 0.5650 prior floor breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 0.5660 london high back in view
Loss of ema20 near 0.5639 returns focus to the 0.5630 ny base and the 0.5626 session low
NY close and thin Asia liquidity ahead; US ADP and core PCE Wed 12:15–12:30 UTC are the next scheduled catalyst
Lower highs/lower lows since Asia; late-NY bounce capped at 61.8% retracement.
The RBA hike at 04:30 UTC knocked the kiwi off the 0.5677 Asian high. London and NY then extended the lower-high chain through the 0.5650 round number, reaching a 0.5626 session low at 16:45 UTC as the USD bid held. The 18:00 UTC bounce stalled at a 0.5647 bounce high, where the 61.8% fib and the falling trendline converge, and price is now back on the 0.5642 london lows.
Support: 0.5642, 0.5639, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.5647, 0.5650, 0.5660
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.5650 round number clears the falling trendline and breaks the lower-high sequence; 0.5660 lower high next
A break below the 0.5639 bounce base reopens the 0.5626 session low
Waller remarks from 19:00 UTC are still filtering through; any pushback on an October hike could shift this read
Wed ADP 12:15 UTC and core PCE 12:30 UTC are the next scheduled USD catalysts
Lower lows through NY; retest of broken London low from above.
NZD/USD broke the Asian range floor and the 0.5642 london low during NY hours as the USD bid shrugged off the JOLTS miss, printing a 0.5626 session low. The late-NY bounce capped at the 0.5647 bounce high, the 61.8% fib of the london high–session low leg, and price is now pinned at the 0.5642–0.5644 zone with EMA50 overhead and ema20 at 0.5637 below.
Support: 0.5642, 0.5637, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.5647, 0.5660
What it said to watch
Fed's Waller at 19:00 UTC, underway now, could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.5647 bounce high opens the path back toward the 0.5660 london high
Failure to hold the 0.5642 london low and ema20 at 0.5637 puts the 0.5626 session low back in play
US ADP and core PCE Wed 12:15–12:30 UTC are the next scheduled USD risk
Lower highs from 0.5677 Asia peak; 0.5642 prior lows broken, now retested from below.
Lower highs have held since the 0.5677 Asia peak. The RBA hike and a firm USD pushed price through the 0.5642 prior lows during NY hours to a 0.5626 session low. A 12-pip late-NY bounce is now retesting 0.5642 from below, near the 50% fib of the 0.5660–0.5626 drop, with RSI(14) near 57.
Support: 0.5632, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.5642, 0.5651, 0.5660
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5642 prior lows opens the 0.5651 lower high and the falling highs trendline near 0.5648
Rejection at 0.5642 keeps the downtrend read intact, with the 0.5632 base high and then the 0.5626 session low back in play
Only a reclaim of the 0.5660 london high breaks the lower-high sequence
Fed's Waller at 19:00 UTC could materially shift this read
18:32 UTC
Downtrend, late NY bounce · RSI 56 · price 0.56402
Lower highs and lower lows; bounce retesting broken lows.
Kiwi lost the 0.5650 floor through London and NY as the firm USD held, printing a session low at 0.5626 after a series of lower highs from the 0.5660 NY high. A late-NY burst off the 0.5631 NY base has retraced about 50% of the NY drop and is now capped at the 0.5642 broken lows, just below EMA50.
Support: 0.5631, 0.5626, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5642, 0.5651, 0.5660
What it said to watch
Fed's Waller at 19:00 UTC, roughly 30 min out, could materially shift this read
M15 close back above 0.5642 broken lows puts the 0.5651 lower high and 0.5660 NY high in play
Rejection at 0.5642 and a slip under the 0.5631 NY base re-exposes the 0.5626 session low
Loss of 0.5626 extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5600 range floor
US ADP and Core PCE Wed 12:15–12:30 UTC are the next scheduled USD risk
Lower highs from 0.5660; London low broken, retesting from below.
NY broke the 0.5642 london low and the 0.5650 prior floor from the digest, with a session low at 0.5626 as the USD stayed bid on 5.2%+ 10Y yields. A 12-pip bounce in the 18:00 UTC bar has price at 0.5639, the 38.2% level of the NY leg fib, just under the broken London low.
Support: 0.5626, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5642, 0.5650, 0.5660
What it said to watch
Fed's Waller at 19:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the 0.5642 london low reclaims the level and puts the 0.5650 prior floor in view
Rejection at 0.5642 and a break of the 0.5626 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5600 round number
A move through the 0.5660 ny high would break the lower-high sequence
Lower highs and lower lows from the Asian high; late-NY base between 0.5626 and 0.5636.
Lower highs from the 0.5677 Asian high held through London and NY. The NY session broke the 0.5642 London low and the ~0.5650 floor as record yields bid the USD. Price has based above the 0.5626 session low for about three hours, with RSI(14) near 39 and the 0.5636 lower high capping the late-NY bounce.
Support: 0.5626, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5636, 0.5642, 0.5651
What it said to watch
Fed's Williams (18:00 UTC) and Waller (19:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
An M15 close back above the 0.5642 London low, inside the 38.2–50% decline fib zone, would reclaim the broken floor
Failure to hold the 0.5626 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5600 range floor
The lower-highs trendline near 0.5649 and the 0.5651 retest high cap the structure while intact
17:47 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 34 · price 0.56314
Lower highs and lower lows; tight base above session low.
NY session broke the london low at 0.5642 and the 0.5650 broken floor, printing a 0.5626 session low as the yield-driven USD bid extended. Lower highs at 0.5660 and the 0.5636 lower high define the descending trendline, and price has been compressing in a 0.5626–0.5636 band since London close, with RSI(14) near 34.
Support: 0.5626
Resistance: 0.5636, 0.5642, 0.5650
What it said to watch
Fed's Williams (18:00 UTC) and Waller (19:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 0.5626 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the 0.5636 lower high and the trendline puts the london low at 0.5642 and the 0.5650 broken floor in play as retest levels
US ADP and core PCE tomorrow at 12:15–12:30 UTC are the next scheduled volatility risk
Lower highs from 0.5660; Asian and London lows broken, tight base 0.5626–0.5636.
NY session extended the lower-high chain from the 0.5660 midday high. It broke the Asian low at 0.5644 and the london low at 0.5642, then printed a session low at 0.5626 as 5.2%+ US yields kept the USD bid, and the former 0.5650 psych floor now sits overhead. Price is basing in a narrow 0.5626–0.5636 band under the 0.5636 lower high, with RSI(14) near 29.
Support: 0.5626, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5636, 0.5642, 0.5650
What it said to watch
Break of the 0.5626 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5600 round number
M15 close above the 0.5636 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence
Reclaim of the 0.5642 london low puts price back inside the day's range, with 0.5650 psych above
Fed's Williams (18:00) and Waller (19:00 UTC) could materially shift this read; US Core PCE Wed 12:30 UTC
16:47 UTC
Downtrend, NY extending lows · RSI 24 · price 0.56263
Lower highs and lower lows since 11:15 UTC; London low broken.
NY session broke the 0.5642 london low and the 0.5650 floor, printing a new session low at 0.5626 as 5.2%+ US yields kept the USD bid. The descending trendline from the 0.5660 london high has capped every bounce, most recently the 0.5636 bounce high. RSI(14) is near 24, oversold with no divergence.
Support: 0.56262, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5636, 0.56418, 0.5660
What it said to watch
Close back above the 0.5636 bounce high breaks the lower-high chain
Reclaim of the 0.5642 london low would mark the NY break as a false break
Acceptance below the 0.5626 session low exposes the 0.5600 round number and range floor
Goolsbee 17:00, Williams 18:00 and Waller 19:00 UTC could shift this read
NY broke Asian and London lows; small base at 0.5628.
The NY sell-off from 0.5660 broke the London low at 0.5642 and the Asian range low. It printed a session low at 0.5628 as a firm USD on 5.2%+ yields outweighed the soft JOLTS miss. Two tests of 0.5628 have held for now, with RSI(14) near 27 and a lower high capping at 0.5636 below the 0.5651 NY high.
Support: 0.5628, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5636, 0.5642, 0.5651
What it said to watch
Fed speakers Williams (18:00 UTC) and Waller (19:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.5636 lower high and back over the 0.5642 london low breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 0.5628 session low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 0.5600 round number
50% retrace of the NY sell-off near 0.5644 aligns with the broken Asian low
Lower highs since the NY high, below broken London low.
A brief pop to the 0.5660 NY high on the JOLTS miss faded into a NY sell-off that cut through the 0.5650 floor and the London low at 0.5642, printing a session low at 0.5628 as the USD bid held. Bounces are capped at the 0.5636 bounce high, RSI(14) in the mid-20s.
Support: 0.56282, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5636, 0.56416, 0.5660
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the London low at 0.5642 negates the breakdown read
Failure to hold the 0.5628 session low exposes the 0.5600 round number
Break of the descending trendline from the 0.5660 NY high would end the lower-high sequence; 38.2–50% of the NY sell-off fib sits at 0.5640–0.5644
Fed speakers Barr, Goolsbee, Williams and Waller (16:40–19:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
16:03 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London and NY · RSI 36 · price 0.56325
Asian range broken below; NY extended to a fresh session low at 0.5628.
Mid-NY session, NZDUSD is holding just above the 0.5628 session low after breaking the 0.5642 London low and the Asian range floor. The move has cleared the 0.5650 floor flagged in the digest as rate-hike-driven USD strength outweighs RBNZ hike pricing. Highs keep stepping down from 0.5677 to the 0.5660 NY open high and the 0.5651 lower high; RSI(14) near 36 is soft but not stretched.
Support: 0.56282
Resistance: 0.56416, 0.56509, 0.5660
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5642 london low turns the Asian range break into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.5628 session low extends the lower-low chain
A reclaim of the 0.5651 lower high and the lower-high line breaks the NY downswing structure
Fed speakers Barr (16:40Z), Goolsbee (17:00Z), Williams (18:00Z) and Waller (19:00Z) could materially shift this read
ADP, GDP and PCE on Sep 30 are the next USD catalysts
Retracement into the 50–61.8% of the ny sell-off fib (0.5644–0.5648) would test the london low from below
Lower highs since Asia, London floor at 0.5642 broken in NY.
Kiwi has printed lower highs since the RBA decision in Asia, with the 0.5660 swing high and the 0.5651 lower high capping London-NY bounces. NY broke the twice-tested 0.5642 London low after soft JOLTS failed to dent the USD, setting a 0.5628 session low. RSI(14) is recovering from ~24 to ~30.
Support: 0.56282, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56416, 0.56509, 0.5660
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5642 london low reclaims the broken floor and neutralises the range break
Failure to hold the 0.5628 session low exposes the 0.5600 range floor
Close above the 0.5651 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence off the 0.5660 swing high
Fedspeak from 16:40 UTC (Williams, Waller on an October hike) could materially shift this read
Lower-high chain; London low at 0.5642 broken in early NY.
Lower highs from the 0.5677 Asia high (0.5665, 0.5660 london high, 0.5651 lower high) led to a break of the 0.5642 london low in the first hour of NY. The session low printed at 0.5631 as Fedspeak got under way, with USD still bid on 10Y yields near 5.25%. RSI(14) near 23 is stretched but not extreme, and 0.5642 now sits overhead as resistance.
Support: 0.56314, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56416, 0.56509, 0.5660
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5642 london low would turn the break into a false break
Price holding below the 0.5651 lower high keeps the lower-highs trendline intact
Loss of the 0.5631 session low exposes the 0.5600 range floor
Fed speakers through 19:00 UTC (Barr, Goolsbee, Williams, Waller) could materially shift this read
A retrace toward the 38.2% fib of the Asia high drop (~0.5649) would overlap the lower high
Lower-high chain since Asia high, pressing session low.
NZD/USD has printed lower highs under a descending trendline from the 0.5677 Asia high. After the 14:00 UTC soft JOLTS print failed to lift the pair, it is now nudging the 0.5642 London low double to a 0.5640 session low. RSI(14) sits near 32, soft but not stretched, and the ~0.5650 floor from recent sessions has already given way.
Support: 0.56403, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56418, 0.56509, 0.5660
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5640 session low confirms a break of the london low zone and exposes the 0.5600 range floor
Recovery above the 0.5651 lower high breaks the lower-high chain; the 0.5660 swing high and descending trendline sit above
Fed speakers from 15:00 UTC (Bowman, then Barr, Goolsbee, Williams, Waller) could materially shift this read
US ADP 12:15 UTC and PCE/GDP 12:30 UTC tomorrow, plus quarter-end flows, are the next event risk
14:33 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stalling at day low · RSI 39 · price 0.56447
Lower highs pressing a flat 0.5642 floor.
Kiwi slid from the 0.5677 Asian high after the RBA decision lifted AUD/NZD. It has since printed a chain of lower highs under a descending trendline, most recently the 0.5651 lower high, while the 0.5642 day low has absorbed three tests through London and early NY. The soft JOLTS miss gave no lift to the pair. RSI(14) sits at 39 and price is below both EMAs, so the market is heavy but not stretched.
Support: 0.56416, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56509, 0.5660, 0.56769
What it said to watch
Fed speakers from 15:00 UTC, Bowman first, could materially shift this read in the NY session
An M15 close below the 0.5642 day low confirms a fresh lower low and exposes the 0.5600 range floor
A close above the 0.5651 lower high and the descending trendline (~0.5655) breaks the lower-high sequence; the 0.5660 london high is the next reference
The RBA hike lifted AUD/NZD and knocked kiwi off the 0.5677 Asian high. London and NY have since printed lower highs at 0.5660 and 0.5651 under a falling trendline, while the 0.5642 session low was tested again in early NY. The soft JOLTS print failed to reclaim the 38.2% fib near 0.5655, and price is compressing at the lows with RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 0.5642, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5651, 0.5660, 0.5677
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.5642 session low exposes the 0.5600 range floor
Close above 0.5660 london high breaks the falling trendline and the lower-high sequence
Reclaiming the 0.5651 ny high and the 38.2% fib at 0.5655 would ease pressure on the lows
Fed speakers from 15:00 UTC (Bowman first) could materially shift this read
Lower highs since the 0.5677 Asian high, with the post-RBA slide and a firm USD holding the kiwi near three-month lows. The Asian low was swept, but demand stepped in twice at the 0.5642 double low, in London and again in the first hours of NY. Price sits in a tight box below the 0.5651 lower high, under EMA20/50, with RSI(14) neutral around 45.
Support: 0.56416, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56509, 0.5660, 0.56768
What it said to watch
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence printing now (14:00 UTC), with Fedspeak 15:00-19:00 UTC, could break the box either way
M15 close below the 0.5642 double low extends the lower-low sequence and exposes the 0.5600 range floor
Close above the 0.5651 lower high and the lower-highs trendline puts the 0.5660 london high back in play
Recovery through the 0.5677 asian high would negate the session downtrend read
Lower-high chain from Asia high; NY retesting day low.
Highs have stepped lower since the 0.5677 Asia high, and the only London bounce stalled at 0.5660. Early NY has retraced about 78.6% of that bounce and is retesting the 0.5642 day low, with the USD bid keeping the kiwi at three-month lows. RSI(14) is ~42 and ATR is ~5 pips, so there is no extreme in play.
Support: 0.56416, 0.5640
Resistance: 0.56576, 0.5660
What it said to watch
A close below the 0.5642 day low and the 0.5640 psych level extends the lower-low sequence
A recovery above the 0.5658 swing high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain, with the London high at 0.5660 next
US JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, then Fedspeak from 15:00 to 19:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows below the broken Asian range.
London broke the 0.5644–0.5677 Asian range lower and set a session low at 0.5642. The drop came on a firm USD after the RBA lifted AUD/NZD. The bounce met rejection at the 0.5660 lower high, near the 50% fib of the Asia high–London low drop. Early NY has faded back below 0.5650 psych, with price sitting just above the Asian low and RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 0.56441, 0.56416
Resistance: 0.5650, 0.5660, 0.56769
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5642 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery back above 0.5650 psych and the 0.5660 lower high breaks the descending lower-highs line
A move through the 0.5677 Asian high would negate the range-break read
US JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 GMT (~30 min), then Fedspeak into 19:00 GMT, could materially shift this read
13:17 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs into the lows · RSI 41 · price 0.56463
Lower highs pressing a 0.5642–0.5644 floor.
The RBA-driven AUD/NZD bid knocked kiwi off the 0.5677 Asian high. London then broke the 0.5644 Asian low to 0.5642, and the bounce was rejected at the 0.5660 London high near the 50% fib, keeping the lower-highs sequence intact. Early NY sits at 0.5646, back on the Asian low with RSI(14) near 41 and price below both EMAs as the USD bid holds.
Support: 0.56441, 0.56416
Resistance: 0.5660, 0.56769
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5642 london low extends the downtrend with a fresh lower low
Close above the 0.5660 london high breaks the lower-highs sequence and reopens the 0.5677 asian high
US JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 GMT (~45m), plus Fedspeak into the NY afternoon, could materially shift this read
13:05 UTC
Downtrend, bounce fading · RSI 43 · price 0.56497
Lower highs from the Asian high; London bounce capped at 0.56600.
The post-RBA slide from the 0.56769 asian high carried into London, printing a 0.56416 session low just under the 0.56441 asian low as the geopolitics-bid USD pinned NZD at the 0.5650 floor. The London bounce drew a rejection at the 0.56600 bounce high near the 50% fib, extending the lower highs chain. In the London-NY transition, price is back below the ema20 at 0.56526 with RSI(14) near 43.
Support: 0.56441, 0.56416
Resistance: 0.56526, 0.5660, 0.56769
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.56416 session low confirms a fresh lower-low in the downtrend
Recovery above the 0.56600 bounce high breaks the lower highs chain and brings the 0.56769 asian high back into view
Holding back above the ema20 at 0.56526 would neutralise the latest rejection
US JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 GMT, then Fedspeak into 19:00, could materially shift this read
12:47 UTC
Down through Asia/London, basing above low · RSI 52 · price 0.56525
Lower lows to 0.5642, bounce compressing 0.5650–0.5660.
Kiwi slid from the 0.5677 Asian high after the RBA hike lifted AUD/NZD, printing a London low at 0.5642. The bounce was rejected at 0.5660, the 50% of the Asian high–London low fib, and price is now compressing on EMA20 between that bounce high and a 0.5650 range floor, with higher lows intact into the London-NY transition.
Support: 0.5650, 0.56416
Resistance: 0.5660, 0.56769
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5650 range floor breaks the higher lows and puts the 0.5642 London low back in play
Close above the 0.5660 bounce high opens the path back toward the 0.5677 Asian high
US JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, then Fedspeak 15:00–19:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
12:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, early NY rebound stalling · RSI 56 · price 0.56561
False break of Asian low, higher lows under 0.5660.
London pushed below the Asian low to 0.5642 and then recovered. Early NY is capped at the 0.5660 recent high, the 50% retrace of the 0.5677–0.5642 drop, with a higher low at 0.5652 on rising support. USD remains bid on hawkish Fed repricing, keeping the 0.5650 area under pressure.
Support: 0.56525, 0.56416
Resistance: 0.5660, 0.56769
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5660 recent high opens a move back toward the 0.5677 Asian high
Loss of the 0.5652 higher low and rising support re-exposes the 0.5642 London low
US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC and Fedspeak 15:00–19:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the Asian high; bounce off the session low capped under 0.5659.
Sellers took NZDUSD from the 0.5677 Asian high down through the 0.5650 psych floor. London then extended to a 0.5642 session low as USD demand stayed firm on Iran tensions and 10Y yields at 2007 highs. The late-London bounce has reclaimed 0.5650 but stalled twice at the 0.5658–0.5659 london cap, which sits at the 38.2% fib of the Asian-high drop.
Support: 0.5650, 0.56416
Resistance: 0.56588, 0.56769
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5659 london cap opens the 50% fib near 0.5659–0.5665
Failure to hold the 0.5650 psych floor re-exposes the 0.5642 session low
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC plus Fedspeak through NY hours could materially shift this read
Asian high at 0.5677 caps the corrective structure; only a move back through it breaks the lower-high sequence
Lower highs since Asian high, false break of Asian low.
The RBA hike at 04:30 UTC hit the Kiwi via AUD/NZD, and the lower-high sequence from the 0.5677 Asian high carried London to a 0.5642 session low. That was a brief false break under the 0.5644 Asian low, and the rebound stalled at the 0.5658 swing high between the 38.2% and 50% fib levels. Price is back near the 0.5650 round number and RSI(14) sits flat near 49 in the second half of London.
Support: 0.5650, 0.56416
Resistance: 0.56576, 0.56648, 0.56769
What it said to watch
A close below the 0.5642 session low resumes the downtrend and exposes the 0.5600 range bottom flagged in the macro backdrop.
Loss of the 0.5650 round number, which has held for three sessions, confirms the bounce has failed.
A close above the 0.5658 swing high clears the 38.2% fib and opens the 0.5665 post-RBA high. Only a return to the 0.5677 Asian high negates the lower-high sequence.
US JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, plus Fedspeak through NY hours, could materially shift this read.
Lower highs from Asia high 0.5677; double low at 0.5642 held, Asia trendline broken.
The RBA-driven AUD/NZD bid dragged the kiwi from the 0.5677 Asia high. London set a 0.5642 session low twice, briefly under the Asian low, before bouncing to 0.5658. Price is stalling at the 38.2% fib of that leg, just under the 0.5659 London high, with the Asia downtrend line already broken.
Support: 0.5650, 0.56416
Resistance: 0.56588, 0.5665
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5659 london high and 50% fib opens a test of the 0.5665 old floor
Loss of 0.5650 psych, then a close below the 0.5642 session low, resumes the lower-low sequence
Musalem Fedspeak now (11:30 UTC) and JOLTS/Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the asian high; London false break below Asian low reclaimed.
Kiwi bled lower through Asia after the in-line RBA hike lifted AUD/NZD. Late London pushed under the Asian low to a 0.5642 session low, then snapped back above the 0.5650 psych level. The bounce is stalling at the 0.5658 bounce high, right at the ema50 and the 38.2% retrace of the asian high–session low leg, with RSI(14) neutral near 56.
Support: 0.5650, 0.56416
Resistance: 0.56576, 0.56648, 0.56769
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5665 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence from the 0.5677 asian high
Slip back below 0.5650 psych and the 0.5642 session low turns the false break into a fresh lower low
Fedspeak (Musalem 11:30 UTC) and JOLTS (14:00 UTC) during NY hours could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.5677 Asian high intact; London false break below the Asian low reclaimed.
The RBA-driven slide from the 0.5677 Asian high dipped under the 0.5644 Asian low to a 0.5642 session low in London, then reclaimed it. The 10:45 UTC bar pushed back to 0.5658, which is both the lower high cap and the 38.2% fib of the Asian high to session low drop. RSI(14) has lifted to around 56, and the 0.5665 swing high still defines the lower-high sequence.
Support: 0.5650, 0.56441, 0.56416
Resistance: 0.56588, 0.56648, 0.56769
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.5665 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 0.5677 Asian high
A slip back below 0.5650 psych and the 0.5644 Asian low voids the false break and exposes the 0.5642 session low
Fed's Musalem at 11:30 UTC and JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since the 06:00 UTC swing high; London broke the Asian low, now retesting 0.5650.
The RBA hike at 04:30 UTC lifted AUD/NZD and knocked the kiwi from the 0.5677 Asian high to a 0.5644 Asian low. London extended the lower-high sequence and printed a 0.5642 session low. The bounce since 10:00 UTC is testing the 38.2% fib at 0.5650, where the ema20 also sits.
Support: 0.56441, 0.56416
Resistance: 0.56505, 0.56547, 0.56648
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 38.2% fib and ema20 near 0.5650 keeps the lower-high chain intact
M15 close above the 0.5655 lower high would open the 50–61.8% zone toward the 0.5665 swing high
Break back below the 0.5644 asian low and 0.5642 session low extends the downtrend
JOLTS at 14:00 UTC and Fedspeak (Williams 18:00, Waller 19:00 UTC) during NY hours could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Asia; London broke Asian low, now back near 0.5650.
NZD slid from the 0.5677 Asian high after the RBA hike lifted AUD/NZD. London swept the 0.5644 asian low to a session low at 0.5642 before bouncing to the 0.5650 psych level, which is testing the lower-high line from the 0.5665 swing high. RSI(14) is neutral at 44 and ATR runs near 5 pips, with the 0.5659 lower high still capping.
Support: 0.56441, 0.56416
Resistance: 0.5650, 0.56588, 0.56648
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 0.5644 asian low and loss of the 0.5642 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the 0.5659 lower high breaks the intraday downtrend read; 0.5665 swing high above
US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC and Fedspeak (Williams 18:00, Waller 19:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
10:17 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 31 · price 0.56438
London broke the Asia low; lower-high chain under a descending trendline.
The post-RBA slide extended into mid-London. Price took out the 0.5644 Asia low to a fresh session low at 0.5642, and a descending trendline off the 0.5665 rba bounce high has capped every rally. Firmer AUD/NZD after the RBA hike and a bid USD are weighing. RSI(14) near 31 is soft but not stretched.
Support: 0.56416, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56441, 0.5650, 0.56648
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5644 Asia low and the trendline near 0.5647 would mark the break as a false break
Price capped below the 0.5650 round number keeps the lower-high sequence intact; a push through the 0.5665 rba bounce high negates it
38.2% retrace of the 0.5677–0.5642 drop sits near 0.5655, an area to watch for rejection on any bounce
Failure to hold the 0.5642 session low opens the path toward the 0.5600 range floor
US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC and Fedspeak (Williams 18:00, Waller 19:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
NZD slid from the 0.5677 Asian high after the in-line RBA hike lifted AUD/NZD, and London has kept a descending highs chain capped below the 0.5659 London high. Price has pushed marginally through the 0.5644 Asian low to a 0.5642 session low, under the digest's 0.5650 floor, with RSI(14) near 29.
Support: 0.5642, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5644, 0.5659, 0.5677
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5644 Asian low would mark the break as a false break
Break of the descending highs trendline and a close above the 0.5659 London high invalidates the lower-high sequence
Holding below the 0.5642 session low leaves the 0.5600 round number as the next reference
Musalem 11:30 UTC, then JOLTS and Consumer Confidence 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs under falling trendline; Asian low broken in London.
The post-RBA slide from the 0.56769 Asian high carried into London. A chain of lower highs under a falling trendline broke the 0.56441 asian low and printed a 0.56418 session low, with AUD/NZD strength and a firm USD keeping the kiwi below 0.5650. RSI(14) is near 36, soft but not oversold; ATR is about 5 pips.
Support: 0.56441, 0.56418, 0.5640
Resistance: 0.56493, 0.56588
What it said to watch
M15 close above the falling trendline and the 0.56493 lower high breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 0.56418 session low exposes the 0.5640 round number
Reclaim of the 0.56588 london high puts the fib 50% near 0.5659 back in play
Fed's Musalem at 11:30 UTC and JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
09:32 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 34 · price 0.56449
Lower-high sequence pressing the Asian low.
The RBA hike at 04:30 UTC lifted AUD/NZD, and a firm USD on 5%+ yields pushed the kiwi through 0.5650 to the 0.56441 Asian low. The 06:00 post-RBA high at 0.56648 was sold, and mid-London has since printed lower highs from 0.56588 (London high) down to 0.56513 (lower high). Price is now retesting the Asian low, with RSI(14) near 34, weak but not oversold.
Support: 0.56441
Resistance: 0.56513, 0.56588, 0.56648
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.56441 Asian low extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the 0.56513 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the London lower-high chain; 0.56588 London high next
Recovery through the 0.56648 post-RBA high negates the intraday downtrend read
Musalem 11:30 UTC, JOLTS 14:00 UTC and afternoon Fedspeak could materially shift this read
09:17 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower through London · RSI 38 · price 0.56454
Lower highs since the post-RBA bounce, retesting session low.
Kiwi slid through the Asia session after the RBA hike lifted AUD/NZD, and a firm USD on 5.27% 10Y yields kept pressure on it into a 0.5644 session low. The bounce was rejected at the fib 61.8 near 0.5665. London has since carved lower highs under a descending trendline and pushed back below the 0.5650 psych level. Price is now retesting the session low with RSI(14) near 38 and no oversold reading.
Support: 0.56441, 0.5640
Resistance: 0.5650, 0.5659, 0.56648
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5644 session low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 0.5640 round number
Reclaim of 0.5650 psych and a break of the descending trendline near 0.5659 lower high would neutralise the London sell-off read
Musalem 11:30 UTC, JOLTS 14:00 UTC and Waller 19:00 UTC could materially shift this read
09:04 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 46 · price 0.56511
Lower highs under a descending trendline; tight London range above the session low.
The RBA hike at 04:30 UTC lifted AUD/NZD and knocked the kiwi from the 0.5677 Asian high to a 0.5644 session low. The bounce met rejection at the 61.8% fib near 0.5665. London has since compressed into a 6-pip ATR range under a descending trendline, with the london low at 0.5647 sitting just above the 0.5650 floor flagged in the macro digest.
Support: 0.56474, 0.56441
Resistance: 0.56588, 0.56648, 0.56769
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5659 lower high breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.5644 session low opens the 0.5650 floor breakdown toward 0.5600
Musalem at 11:30 UTC and JOLTS at 14:00 UTC (f/c 7.23M) could materially shift this read
Reclaim of the 61.8% fib at 0.5665 puts the 0.5677 asian high back in play
08:47 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 41 · price 0.56489
Lower-high sequence since the Asian high, pressing session lows.
The kiwi slid after the RBA hike lifted AUD/NZD and printed a 0.5644 Asian low. London has put in successive lower highs along a descending trendline from the 0.5665 rebound high, with a 0.5655 lower high, and is now pressing the 0.5647 London low just under the 0.5650 floor. RSI(14) sits near 41, so the pair is soft but not stretched.
Support: 0.56474, 0.56441
Resistance: 0.56547, 0.56648
What it said to watch
A close below the 0.5644 Asian low extends the lower-low sequence, with the 0.5600 range floor in view
A close above the 0.5655 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the London lower-high chain; the 0.5665 rebound high comes next
Fedspeak from 11:30 UTC and JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
08:31 UTC
Downtrend, compressing into the floor · RSI 41 · price 0.56509
Lower highs from the Asia high, London holding a tight 0.5647–0.5659 box.
The in-line RBA hike lifted AUD/NZD and knocked the kiwi from the 0.5677 Asia high to a 0.5644 session low. The pair recovered 0.5650 and bounced to the 61.8% fib at 0.5665. London has since printed lower highs at the 0.5659 London high and 0.5655, pressing the psych 0.5650 floor and the 0.5647 London low with RSI(14) near 41 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 0.5650, 0.56474, 0.56441
Resistance: 0.56588, 0.56648, 0.56769
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5644 session low confirms a lower-low through the 0.5650 psych floor
Close above the 0.5659 London high breaks the lower-highs line; the 0.5665 61.8% fib and the 0.5677 Asia high sit above
Fedspeak from 11:30 UTC and JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Asian high; London compressing 0.5647–0.5659.
The kiwi slid from the 0.56769 Asian high to a 0.56441 session low after the RBA hike lifted AUD/NZD, with USD firm on yields. The 0.56648 swing high sits at the 61.8% fib of that drop, and London has capped at 0.56588 while holding above the 0.56474 London low. RSI(14) is neutral near 44 and ATR is about 7 pips, pointing to compression rather than extension.
Support: 0.56474, 0.56441
Resistance: 0.56588, 0.56648, 0.56769
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.56588 London high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 0.56648 swing high in play
Failure to hold the 0.56474 London low exposes the 0.56441 session low and the 0.5640 area below
A reclaim of the 0.56769 Asian high would invalidate the downtrend read
Fedspeak from 11:30 UTC and JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
08:03 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 44 · price 0.56535
Lower highs above a 0.5650 range floor after the Asia low.
The Asia session faded from the 0.5677 Asia high after the in-line RBA hike lifted AUD/NZD. Price broke yesterday's 0.5653 low and printed the 0.5644 Asia low. The rebound met rejection at the 61.8% fib, and the 0.5665 bounce high now caps. Early London is compressing between a 0.5650 range floor and lower highs near 0.5659, below the descending trendline and both EMAs, with a firm USD on 5%+ yields.
Support: 0.5650, 0.5644
Resistance: 0.5659, 0.5665, 0.5677
What it said to watch
Sustained break of the 0.5650 range floor exposes the 0.5644 Asia low
M15 close above the 0.5665 bounce high breaks the lower-highs sequence and the descending trendline
Fedspeak from 11:30 UTC and US JOLTS/Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.5677 Asian high; early London boxed 0.5650–0.5659.
The in-line RBA hike at 04:30 UTC lifted AUD/NZD and knocked the pair through Monday's 0.5653 low to a 0.5644 session low, with the firm USD bid adding pressure. The rebound stalled at the 0.5665 lower high, right at the 61.8% of the Asian high-low fib. Early London is compressing between the 0.5650 london low and the 0.5659 range top, with the lower-highs trendline capping and RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 0.5650, 0.5644
Resistance: 0.5659, 0.5665
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5650 london low exposes the 0.5644 session low
M15 close above the 0.5659 range top breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 0.5665 lower high back in play
Fed speakers from 11:30 UTC and JOLTS/Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Asian high, tight range above Asian low.
Kiwi slid from the 0.5677 Asian high as the RBA hike lifted AUD/NZD. The pair briefly broke the 0.5650 floor to a 0.5644 Asian low, then bounced into the 61.8% fib at 0.5665, where the rally was rejected. In the first hour of London the pair is compressing between 0.5650 and a 0.5659 range top, below EMA20, with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 0.5650, 0.5644
Resistance: 0.5659, 0.5665, 0.5677
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5644 Asian low confirms a lower-low below the 0.5650 floor
Close above the 0.5659 range top, then the 0.5665 61.8% fib, breaks the lower-high sequence toward the 0.5677 Asian high
Fed's Musalem at 11:30 UTC and JOLTS/Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could shift the USD leg
Lower highs from the Asian high; tight 0.5650–0.5658 box above the session low.
The Asian rally stalled at the 0.5677 Asian high. After the in-line RBA hike lifted AUD/NZD, the kiwi slid to a 0.5644 session low in late Asia. The rebound stalled at the 0.5665 bounce high, near the 61.8% retrace, and price has since compressed above the 0.5650 range floor into the London open, with RSI(14) near 44 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 0.5650, 0.56441
Resistance: 0.56648, 0.56768
What it said to watch
A close below the 0.5650 range floor and the 0.5644 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery above the 0.5665 bounce high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 0.5677 Asian high
Fed's Musalem at 11:30 UTC and JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
US-Iran or oil headlines have been driving sharp USD swings
07:03 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 40 · price 0.56532
Lower highs below 0.5665 after a break of Monday's low.
The RBA hike lifted AUD/NZD and dragged the kiwi through Monday's 0.5653 low to a session low at 0.5644. The rebound met rejection at 0.5665, the 61.8% fib of the drop from the 0.5677 Asian high, and London open finds price capped by lower highs near 0.5658 with the post-RBA low at 0.5650 still intact.
Support: 0.5650, 0.56441
Resistance: 0.5658, 0.56648, 0.56769
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5650 post-rba low reopens the 0.5644 session low
Close above the 0.5665 61.8% fib breaks the lower-highs sequence and the trendline
Musalem 11:30 UTC and JOLTS 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read via the USD leg
False break below 0.5650, then lower high at 0.56648 and higher low at 0.56504.
The RBA's in-line 25bp hike at 04:30 UTC set off a slide from the 0.56769 Asian high through the 0.5650 floor to a 0.56441 session low. That break failed and price reclaimed 0.5650, but the rebound was rejected at 0.56648, the post-RBA high near the 61.8% fib, leaving a lower high. Heading into London open, price holds a 0.56504 higher low while trading below EMA20/50.
Support: 0.56504, 0.56441
Resistance: 0.56648, 0.56769
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.56504 higher low re-exposes the 0.56441 session low and undoes the false-break read
M15 close above the 0.56648 post-RBA high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 0.56769 Asian high
ATR near 6 pips after the RBA spike; volatility may compress into London open
US JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, with Fedspeak from 11:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
06:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend since 02:45 UTC · RSI 37 · price 0.56511
Lower highs and lower lows; 0.5650 floor under retest.
The in-line RBA hike at 04:30 UTC lifted AUD/NZD and pushed NZDUSD through the 0.5650 psych floor to a session low at 0.5644. The 06:00 UTC bounce stalled at 0.5665 for a fresh lower high. Price is back at 0.5651 into London open, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 0.5650, 0.56441
Resistance: 0.56648, 0.56769
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 0.5650 psych reopens the 0.5644 session low
M15 close above the 0.5665 lower high breaks the lower-high chain; the asian high at 0.5677 sits above
Fedspeak from 11:30 UTC and US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the asian high; false break below 0.5650 reclaimed.
Late in the Asia session, the RBA hike lifted AUD/NZD and pushed the kiwi through the 0.5650 psych floor to a 0.5644 session low. Price snapped back quickly, so for now it reads as a false break. The rebound stalled at the fib 61.8 near 0.5665, leaving lower highs intact below the 0.5677 asian high, with price under both EMAs.
Support: 0.5650, 0.5644
Resistance: 0.5665, 0.5677, 0.5687
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 0.5650 psych floor turns the false break into a breakdown and exposes the 0.5644 session low
A close above the 0.5665 fib 61.8 opens the 0.5677 asian high, with the 0.5687 prior high capping the 24h range
London open in about 45 minutes, Fedspeak from 11:30 UTC and JOLTS plus Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs off 0.5677 Asia high, 0.5650 floor pierced.
The RBA's in-line 25bp hike at 04:30 UTC broke price out of the 0.5662 pre-RBA base, with AUD/NZD bid. That extended the slide off the 0.5677 Asia high to a 0.5644 session low, piercing the multi-session 0.5650 floor. Price is now back just above the round number, capped by the 0.5658 rebound high, with London open about an hour out and RSI(14) near 31.
Support: 0.5650, 0.56441
Resistance: 0.56584, 0.5662, 0.56768
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5658 rebound high reopens the 0.5662 pre-rba base, near the 61.8% of the asia high–rba low leg
Failure to hold the 0.5650 round number exposes the 0.5644 session low
Fedspeak from 11:30 UTC and JOLTS/Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
05:46 UTC
Downtrend, fresh lows late Asia · RSI 24 · price 0.56472
Lower highs from 0.5677, 0.5650 floor broken.
The early-Asia bounce to the 0.5677 session high faded into lower highs. The RBA's 04:30 UTC hike lifted AUD/NZD and knocked NZD through the asian low at 0.5656 and the 0.5650 floor, printing a 0.5644 session low. RSI(14) near 24 is stretched but not extreme, with the London open about an hour away.
Support: 0.56441, 0.5640
Resistance: 0.5650, 0.5656, 0.56769
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5650 floor turns the range break into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.5644 session low exposes the 0.5640 round number
Descending trendline from the session high near 0.5660 caps rebounds; the fib 50% sits at 0.5661
RBA press conference now, US JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
05:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia peak · RSI 34 · price 0.56534
Asian range broken to the downside, fresh session low ahead of London open.
Price broke below the 0.5656 Asia low after the RBA's 25bp hike at 04:30 UTC lifted AUD/NZD. It printed a session low at 0.5650 in late Asia, testing the digest's 0.5650 floor. Lower highs off the 0.5677 Asia high form a descending sequence, with RSI(14) near 34 and price below EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 0.5650, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5656, 0.5662, 0.5677
What it said to watch
Close back above the 0.5656 asia low would turn the range break into a false break
Sustained trade below the 0.5650 session low exposes the 0.5600 range base
Break of the lower highs line and ema20 near 0.5662 undoes the descending sequence
RBA press conference, then US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Asia high 0.5677; RBA drop testing prior low 0.5653.
The Asia session rally to 0.5677 met rejection at the Asia high. The RBA's in-line 25bp hike then lifted AUD/NZD and knocked the kiwi through the 0.5664 pre-RBA base. The drop swept the overnight 0.5656 lows into 0.5653, matching yesterday's prior low; price is bouncing off it but holds below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 0.56532, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5664, 0.56769, 0.56874
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5653 prior low exposes the 0.5650 psych floor
M15 close back above the 0.5664 pre-RBA base negates the RBA break and reopens the 0.5677 Asia high
0.5687 prior high from yesterday's NY spike caps any extended recovery
RBA press conference shortly could extend AUD/NZD-driven kiwi weakness
US JOLTS 14:00 UTC and heavy Fedspeak during NY hours could shift this read
05:04 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asian high · RSI 40 · price 0.56561
Asian range broken to the downside after RBA; price testing window low.
The Asian session rally to the 0.5677 Asian high has fully unwound. The in-line RBA hike to 4.60% at 04:30 UTC broke the pair below the 0.5662 rba shelf and the 0.5656 Asian low, printing 0.5653, level with Monday's London window low. Price is pinned just above the 0.5650 floor that has held for three sessions, with the firm USD backdrop capping bounces and RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 0.56531, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5662, 0.56769
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5653 window low exposes the 0.5650 floor
Reclaiming the 0.5662 rba shelf and the lower-highs trendline would negate the post-RBA break
A retrace toward the 50% asia high fib (~0.5665) that fails keeps the lower-highs sequence intact
RBA press conference and the London open could extend or reverse the break
US JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC plus heavy Fedspeak could materially shift this read
24h range 0.5653–0.5687, price at the base after Asia rally unwound.
The Asia session rally was rejected at the 0.5677 asian high. A descending lower-highs trendline then pulled price back to the 0.5655 session low, with the 04:30 UTC bar breaking lower in the RBA decision window. Price now sits just above yesterday's 0.5653 london low and the 0.5650 floor, inside a 24h range capped by the 0.5687 ny high; RSI(14) is near 39.
Support: 0.56555, 0.5653, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5664, 0.5677, 0.5687
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5653 london low breaks the 24h range floor and exposes the 0.5650 floor
Recovery above the 0.5664 minor high breaks the lower-highs trendline and reopens the 0.5677 asian high
RBA decision fallout on the AUD/NZD cross could extend the move from the session low
US JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, plus Fedspeak from Musalem at 11:30 UTC, could shift the read during NY hours
A move back through the 0.5687 ny high invalidates the range-floor read
04:31 UTC
Short-term down, lower highs since Asia peak · RSI 43 · price 0.56593
Asia rally fully retraced, retesting Asian low.
The Asia rally from the 0.5656 Asian low was rejected at the 0.5677 Asian high around 02:45 UTC. It has since unwound on a chain of lower highs, leaving price retesting the Asian low with RSI(14) near 43. Firm USD on 10y yields at 2007 highs keeps bounces capped, with the prior low at 0.5653 just beneath.
Support: 0.5656, 0.5653, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5664, 0.5671, 0.5677
What it said to watch
RBA decision due around 04:30 UTC, with a hike to 4.60% expected. It lands on the current bar and could materially shift this read.
An M15 close below the 0.5653 prior low breaks the prior-day floor and exposes the 0.5650 psych level.
A recovery above the 0.5664 lower high and the 0.5671 swing high invalidates the lower-high sequence, with the 0.5677 Asian high above.
US JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, plus Fedspeak, are the next USD-side risk.
04:16 UTC
Sideways, lower high printed in Asia · RSI 49 · price 0.56633
24h range 0.5653–0.5687; Asia rally faded, lower highs.
The Asia session bounce from the 0.5656 asian low was rejected at the 0.5677 session high, a lower high under yesterday's NY spike high at 0.5687. Price has since given back about 65% of that move and sits just above the 0.5662 pullback low, below EMA20/EMA50 with RSI(14) near 49. The 24h structure remains a 0.5653–0.5687 range, with the london low marking the floor.
Support: 0.56616, 0.5656, 0.56531
Resistance: 0.56769, 0.56874
What it said to watch
The RBA decision today (expected hike to 4.60%) could materially shift this read through AUD/NZD.
An M15 close below the 0.5662 pullback low exposes the 0.5656 asian low. Failure to hold the 0.5653 london low breaks the 24h range floor.
A recovery above the 0.5677 session high breaks the lower highs line and puts the 0.5687 spike high back in play.
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, plus Fedspeak, could reprice the USD side during NY hours.
04:03 UTC
Intraday pullback inside a 24h range · RSI 44 · price 0.56623
Asia rally rejected at 0.5677, lower highs since.
The Asia session rallied from the 0.5656 asia low to a 0.5677 asia high, then met rejection. A lower high at 0.5671 has pulled price back to 0.5662, below the 61.8% of that rally and EMA20, with RSI at 44. The 24h range of 0.5653–0.5687 is intact, and firm US yields keep the kiwi pinned near the 0.5650 psych floor.
Support: 0.5656, 0.5653, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5671, 0.5677
What it said to watch
RBA decision at 04:30 UTC; the AUD/NZD spillover could materially shift this read within the next few bars
Break of the 0.5656 asia low exposes the 0.5653 prior low and the 0.5650 psych floor
M15 close above the 0.5671 lower high breaks the descending line from the asia high and reopens 0.5677
US JOLTS and Fedspeak during NY hours are the next USD-side risk to the range
03:46 UTC
Sideways, Asia rally fading · RSI 51 · price 0.56649
Inside 24h range; Asia bounce rejected at 0.5677, pulling back to 61.8% fib.
Asia session lifted from the 0.5656 session low to 0.5677, then met a sharp rejection. Price has since given back over half that move and sits on the 61.8% fib near 0.5664. Yesterday's NY spike to the 0.5687 prior high, around the Iran sanctions-relief report, has fully faded, and the 0.5653–0.5687 range from the prior day still holds.
Support: 0.5664, 0.5656, 0.5653
Resistance: 0.5677, 0.5687
What it said to watch
RBA decision at 04:30 UTC (under an hour away) could materially shift this read via AUD/NZD
M15 close below the 0.5656 session low exposes the 0.5653 prior low and the 0.5650 floor
Recovery above the 0.5677 session high reopens the 0.5687 prior high
Holding the 61.8% fib keeps the Asia bounce structure intact
03:32 UTC
Sideways, mid Asian range · RSI 53 · price 0.56693
Asian range 0.5656–0.5677, rejection off high, pullback low at 0.5666.
Asia dipped to the 0.5656 asian low after the Tokyo open, then rallied to 0.5677 and was rejected. The pullback low at 0.5666 sits on EMA20 and about the 50% level of the asian rally fib. Price is mid-range with RSI(14) near 53, still inside yesterday's span from the 0.5653 swing low to the 0.5687 ny high, where the spike faded as hawkish Fed pricing kept USD bid.
Support: 0.56663, 0.5656, 0.56531
Resistance: 0.56769, 0.56874
What it said to watch
RBA decision at 04:30 UTC (~1h) could materially shift this read through AUD/NZD spillover
M15 close above the 0.5677 asian high opens the 0.5687 ny high
Failure to hold the 0.5666 pullback low exposes the 0.5656 asian low and the 0.5653 swing low, just above the 0.5650 floor
US JOLTS and Fed speakers later in NY hours could reprice USD
Asia rally from 0.5656 rejected at 0.5677, pullback holding mid-range.
Asia session lifted from the 0.5656 asia low to 0.5677 before a sharp rejection, and the pullback low at 0.5666 sits on the 50% retrace of the Asia rally. Yesterday's NY spike high at 0.5687 and the 0.5685 double top were fully faded as USD firmed on oil and yields, leaving price rotating inside a 0.5653–0.5687 band.
Support: 0.56663, 0.5656, 0.56531
Resistance: 0.56769, 0.56847, 0.56874
What it said to watch
RBA decision around 04:30 UTC (hike to 4.60% expected) could materially shift this read via AUD/NZD
M15 close above the 0.5677 asia high reopens the 0.5685 double top and 0.5687 spike high
Failure to hold the 0.5666 pullback low and 50% retrace exposes the 0.5656 asia low and 0.5653 prior low
03:03 UTC
Sideways, Asia bounce rejected · RSI 57 · price 0.56696
0.5653–0.5687 range, lower highs since Monday NY spike.
The Asia bounce from 0.5656, just above the 0.5653 Monday low from London, stalled at 0.5677 and reversed sharply on the late-Asia bar. Price now sits on the 38.2% of that rally near 0.5669. Monday's 0.5687 NY high came on the Iran sanctions-relief headline and has since capped a lower-highs sequence, while the kiwi keeps holding the 0.5650 area on trade-truce support.
Support: 0.56665, 0.5656, 0.56531
Resistance: 0.56769, 0.56874, 0.5700
What it said to watch
RBA decision at 04:30 UTC, inside this Asia session, could materially shift NZD and this read
M15 close back above the 0.5677 asia high clears the lower-highs trendline and puts the 0.5687 monday high in view
Only a break of the monday high brings the 0.5700 round number into play
Loss of the 0.5666 fib 50% exposes the 0.5656 asia low; a break of the 0.5653 monday low breaks the range floor
02:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, extended into session high · RSI 68 · price 0.56754
HH/HL chain off 0.5656 Asian low, breakout above 0.5670.
Asia session rallied about 20 pips off the 0.5656 Asian low through a higher low at 0.5662, with a breakout above 0.5670 carrying price to a 0.5677 session high as USD eased after the Iran sanctions headlines. RSI(14) near 68 is firm but not stretched. Monday's 0.5684 NY cap and the 0.5687 prior day high sit overhead.
Support: 0.5670, 0.56622, 0.5656
Resistance: 0.56768, 0.56845, 0.56874
What it said to watch
RBA decision at 04:30 UTC, roughly 1h45 out, could materially shift this read via AUD/NZD spillover
Close back below the 0.5670 breakout level turns the move into a false break
Loss of the 0.5662 higher low breaks the Asian-session HH/HL chain and the trendline
Close above the 0.5684 NY cap exposes the 0.5687 prior day high
Tuesday Fedspeak cluster from 11:30 UTC is a USD risk later in the day
Asia session climbed about 19 pips off the 0.5656 asian low in a clean higher-low sequence along the asia trendline. It broke the 0.5669 range top and tagged the 0.5675 asia high, which sits on the 61.8% fib of the fall from the 0.5687 ny spike (set as USD gains were trimmed on the Iran sanctions-relief reports). RSI(14) at 66 is warm, not stretched.
Support: 0.5669, 0.5656, 0.5653
Resistance: 0.56755, 0.56845, 0.56874
What it said to watch
RBA decision around 04:30 UTC could materially shift this read. A hike is largely priced.
M15 close above the 0.5675 asia high / 61.8% fib exposes the 0.5684-0.5685 ny highs, then the 0.5687 ny spike.
Slipping back below the 0.5669 range top turns the breakout into a false break and puts the 0.5656 asian low back in play.
A break of the asia trendline and 0.5656 exposes the 0.5653 london low.
Fedspeak from 11:30 UTC and JOLTS at 14:00 UTC into London-NY hours.
02:04 UTC
Flat, recovering inside Asian range · RSI 52 · price 0.56645
Asian range 0.5656–0.5669, higher lows off 0.5656.
The NY session faded the 0.5687 prior high spike, set on Iran sanctions-relief headlines. The Asia session has since held a 0.5656–0.5669 range: a double bottom at the 0.5656 asian low produced a higher-low chain to 0.5662, with the ema50 near 0.5665 capping the rebound, RSI(14) neutral at 52 and ATR(14) at ~3.4 pips.
Support: 0.56622, 0.5656, 0.56531
Resistance: 0.5665, 0.56687, 0.56874
What it said to watch
RBA decision due later this Asia session (hike to 4.60% expected) could break the asian range either way
M15 close above the 0.5669 asian high breaks the range and exposes the 0.5687 prior high
Loss of the 0.5662 higher low stalls the rebound; a break of the 0.5656 asian low voids the double bottom and brings the 0.5653 prior low / 0.5650 floor into play
01:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, stalling in Asia · RSI 48 · price 0.56624
Lower highs from 0.5687 spike, Asian range 0.5656–0.5669.
Monday's NY spike high at 0.5687 came as Iran sanctions-easing reports trimmed the USD, and it was fully rejected; the Asia session then gapped lower into a 0.5656–0.5669 range. Price is pressing the ema20 near 0.5663 after two holds at the asian low, only about 20% into the spike retrace, with the monday low 0.5653 and the 0.5650 psych floor just below. RSI(14) is neutral at 48.
Support: 0.5656, 0.5653, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5663, 0.5669, 0.5687
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5656 asian low exposes the 0.5653 monday low and the 0.5650 psych floor
A close above the 0.5669 asian high puts the 50% spike retrace near 0.5672 and the 0.5687 spike high back in view
Repeated failure at the ema20 near 0.5663 keeps the lower-high sequence intact
RBA decision later this Asia session (hike to 4.60% expected) could jolt NZD and break the range
01:32 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · price 0.56597
Lower highs since NY spike, tight Asian range above London low.
No narrative produced.
Support: 0.5656, 0.5653, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5662, 0.5668, 0.5687
01:04 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since NY spike · RSI 46 · price 0.56596
Lower highs from 0.5687; Asia compressing above 0.5656.
Monday's NY spike to 0.5687 on the Iran sanctions-relief reports was rejected and fully unwound. Lower highs followed into Tuesday's Asia session, with the 0.5669 Asia high capping and the latest bounce high at 0.5661. Price is now pinned just above the 0.5656 Asia low and Monday's 0.5653 London low, with EMA20 and EMA50 both overhead.
Support: 0.5656, 0.56531, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.56611, 0.56687, 0.56874
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5653 London low exposes the 0.5650 psych floor, the multi-session base
M15 close above the 0.5669 Asia high breaks the lower-high sequence and the downtrend line
Holding the 0.5656 Asia low keeps the Asia session range intact; a reclaim of the 0.5661 bounce high is the first sign of that
RBA decision later in the Asia session could jolt NZD crosses and widen the range beyond the ~3 pip ATR
00:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since NY spike · RSI 46 · price 0.56592
Lower highs from 0.5687 pressing a flat 0.5656 base.
Monday's NY spike high at 0.5687, which coincided with Iran sanctions-relief reports trimming the USD, has been fully faded. Early Tuesday Asia trade was capped at the 0.5669 asia high, below the 0.5674 prior highs, and is pressing the 0.5656 session low. The 0.5653 monday low and the 0.5650 psych floor sit just beneath, with ATR near 3 pips as Asian trade stays compressed.
Support: 0.5656, 0.56531, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.56687, 0.56736, 0.56874
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5653 monday low exposes the 0.5650 psych floor
M15 close above the 0.5669 asia high breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens the 0.5674 prior highs
RBA decision in the Asia session Tue could jolt kiwi via AUD/NZD flows
US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC Tue could reset the read; the 0.5687 spike high caps the upside
00:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia open · RSI 37 · price 0.56581
Lower-high sequence from 0.5669, pressing the 0.5656 Asia low.
Monday's NY high at 0.5687, a spike on the Iran sanctions-relief report, was rejected and fully retraced. Tuesday's Asia session has printed a string of lower highs from the 0.5669 Asia high and is testing the 0.5656 Asia low, with RSI(14) near 37 and the prior 0.5662 shelf now overhead.
Support: 0.5656, 0.5653, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5662, 0.5669, 0.5687
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5653 London low exposes the 0.5650 floor held for three sessions
Recovery through the 0.5662 shelf and the 0.5669 Asia high, near the 38.2% fib of the NY high drop, breaks the lower-high sequence
RBA decision later in the Asia session is largely priced but could jolt NZD via crosses
Iran/Hormuz headlines drove the NY high and could again spike USD
Lower-high sequence from 0.5687 spike; Asia holding above 0.5657.
The NY spike to the 0.5687 spike high, tied to the Iran sanctions-relief report, was rejected twice and fully unwound after the denial, leaving a double top and a chain of lower highs. The rollover dip found a swing low at 0.5657, and the bounce stalled at 0.5669, a lower high at the 38.2% retracement. Early Asia is drifting at 0.5661 below both EMAs, with ATR near 4 pips.
Support: 0.56567, 0.56531, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.56687, 0.56739, 0.56874
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5669 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and brings the 0.5674 Asian high back into view
Loss of the 0.5657 swing low exposes the 0.5653 London low, then the 0.5650 psych floor
A reclaim of the 0.5687 spike high would negate the double top
RBA decision later today and US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read