Lower highs since the post-PPI spike; late-NY slip under the tight 0.5522–0.5528 range.
The slightly soft headline US PPI lifted the pair to a 0.5545 post-PPI high, but the spike was sold through NY. That left lower highs under a falling trendline, with price below a declining ema20 and ema50. Late NY has edged to a fresh session low at 0.5521, just under the 0.5527 19-month low, with ATR compressed to 2.9 pips and RSI at 36.
Support: 0.55208, 0.5500
Resistance: 0.5525, 0.5528, 0.55447
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5528 range top negates the range break and brings ema50 at 0.5529 into play
Failure to hold the 0.5521 session low leaves 0.5500 psych as the next reference
A break of the falling trendline from the 0.5545 post-PPI high would interrupt the lower-high sequence
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC could jolt a thin post-NY tape
22:31 UTC
Downtrend, volatility compressing into weekly close · RSI 36 · price 0.55212
Lower highs from the post-PPI high; late-NY range broken to a fresh session low.
The soft-PPI pop to the 0.5545 ppi high faded through NY hours in a run of lower highs. Late NY then slipped out of the 0.5522–0.5529 range to a session low at 0.5521, below the 0.5527 19m low cited in the macro read. Price sits under the ema20 (0.5525) and ema50 (0.5529), with RSI(14) at 36 and ATR compressed to 2.9 pips from 4.6.
Support: 0.55208, 0.5520
Resistance: 0.5525, 0.5527, 0.55294
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above 0.5527 (19m low) and the ema20 would turn the break into a false break
Giving up the 0.5521 session low and the 0.5520 round number extends the lower-low chain
A break of the lower highs line plus the 38.2% fib near the ema50 at 0.5530 would challenge the downtrend read
Fed's Jefferson (00:00 UTC) and Warsh Monday land over the weekend; thin weekly-close liquidity and gap risk at the open
Lower highs below the 0.5527 YTD low, marginal new session low.
The post-PPI bounce to the 0.5545 NY high faded despite the soft headline print. Price slid back below the 0.5527 YTD low and both EMAs, then late NY ground lower under descending highs. The last bar edged a new session low at 0.5521, with ema20 capping just overhead at 0.5525, ATR(14) compressed to 2.9 pips and RSI(14) at 36, not oversold.
Support: 0.55208, 0.5520
Resistance: 0.5525, 0.5527, 0.55447
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5527 YTD low and the descending-highs line would turn the dip below it into a false break
Continued trade under the 0.5521 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5520 psych handle
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC lands into thin liquidity near the weekly close and could materially shift this read
A reclaim of the 0.5545 NY high would undo the post-PPI sell-off structure
Lower highs from the post-PPI spike; tight late-NY range below 0.5527 YTD low.
The softer US PPI print produced a whipsaw to the 0.5545 PPI high, which faded. Price slipped under the 0.5527 YTD low and has compressed in a 0.5522–0.5528 late-NY range, printing a fresh session low at 0.5521. Price sits below both EMAs. RSI(14) is 36 and ATR has shrunk to 2.9 pips as liquidity thins into the week close.
Support: 0.55208, 0.5520
Resistance: 0.55254, 0.5528, 0.55447
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 0.5528 range top, near the 0.5527 YTD low, would negate the break lower.
The 38.2% retrace of the post-PPI drop near 0.5530 aligns with ema50 (0.5530), so that confluence caps any bounce.
Failure to hold the 0.5521 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5520 round number.
The lower-highs trendline from the PPI high sits just above the ema20 at 0.5525.
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC could jolt a thin, compressed tape.
20:46 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into late NY · RSI 40 · price 0.55241
Lower highs since post-PPI high, tight 0.5522–0.5528 base.
The soft US PPI pop to the 0.5545 ppi high was rejected within the hour. NY then printed lower highs below the trendline and cut through the 0.5527 19-month low to a 0.5522 session low. Late NY is compressing just under the ema20 at 0.5526 and the ema50 at 0.5531, with ATR down to 3 pips and RSI at 39.8 off its lows.
Support: 0.55223, 0.5500
Resistance: 0.55264, 0.55308, 0.55447
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5522 session low extends the lower-low chain, with the 0.5500 psych handle next
Close back above the ema50 at 0.5531 and the trendline breaks the lower-high sequence
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC, into thin Friday-close liquidity, could shift this read
Lower highs since the post-PPI spike; tight 0.5522–0.5529 band below ema20.
The soft US PPI headline lifted the pair to a 0.5545 ppi high, but that bounce met rejection. NY session then sold through the 0.5527 YTD low to a 0.5522 session low. Since 16:45 UTC price has compressed in a 0.5522–0.5529 band, with closes capped below ema20 at 0.55266, RSI(14) at 41.7 and ATR(14) contracting to 3.1 pips.
Support: 0.55223
Resistance: 0.55266, 0.55287, 0.55447
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5529 range top, and back over ema20, breaks the compression and the lower-highs line
Failure to hold the 0.5522 session low extends the lower-low chain
Daily close relative to the 0.5527 YTD low frames the next session
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC could shift USD tone into the Asia session
20:29 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into late NY · RSI 41 · price 0.55245
Lower highs from the post-PPI high; tight 0.5522–0.5529 band below EMAs.
The soft PPI spike to the 0.5545 PPI high was rejected. NY then sold through the 0.5527 low to a session low at 0.5522, and late NY is now compressing between 0.5522 and the 0.5529 swing high, capped by the ema20 at 0.5527. RSI(14) sits flat near 41 and ATR(14) has shrunk from 5.1 to 3.2 pips, showing momentum draining into the Friday close.
Support: 0.55223, 0.5520
Resistance: 0.55269, 0.55287, 0.55313
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5522 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5520 round number
Close above the 0.5529 swing high and the ema50 at 0.5531 breaks the compression and the descending line from the PPI high
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC could jolt thin late-Friday liquidity
Fib 38.2% of the PPI high-to-session low drop sits near 0.5531, overlapping the ema50
20:03 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into the close · RSI 39 · price 0.55246
Lower highs since the post-PPI high; late-NY compression just under the ema20.
The soft headline US PPI at 13:30 UTC drove a two-way spike to the 0.5545 ppi high. That move faded through NY hours, and lower highs pushed price through the 0.5527 YTD low to a session low at 0.5522. Late NY has compressed into a 6-pip box under the ema20 (0.5527), with ATR(14) down to 3.3 pips and RSI(14) at 38.6, not oversold. Price sits near the bottom of the post-PPI drop fib.
Support: 0.55223, 0.5520
Resistance: 0.55271, 0.55287, 0.55447
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.5529 range top and the ema20 reclaims the 0.5527 YTD low and puts the downtrend read in question.
A break of the 0.5522 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5520 round number.
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC (~4h) could shift this read, with the thin Friday close adding to the risk.
A rebound toward the 38.2–50% zone of the post-PPI drop fib (0.5531–0.5534) would test supply below the 0.5545 ppi high.
Lower highs after the NY high, grinding along the session low below both EMAs.
The softer headline US PPI lifted the pair to a NY high at 0.55447. Supply took over in the post-PPI drop, which broke the 0.5527 YTD low and set a 0.55227 session low. Late NY is drifting along that low under a falling ema20 at 0.55275, with RSI(14) at 39 and ATR compressing to 3.4 pips.
Support: 0.55227, 0.5500
Resistance: 0.55275, 0.55319, 0.55447
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the ema20 at 0.55275 and the lower highs line would turn the 0.5527 break into a possible false break.
A clean break of the 0.55227 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5500 round number.
A recovery through the ema50 at 0.55319, near the 38.2% of the post-PPI drop, is needed to reopen the 0.55447 NY high.
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC (~4h), in thin Friday-close liquidity, could shift this read.
19:31 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into late NY · RSI 41 · price 0.55246
Lower highs from post-PPI high; tight base above 0.55227 session low.
The soft US PPI headline spiked NZDUSD to the 0.55447 ppi high, but the bounce was rejected below the Asian range top. NY then printed a 0.55227 session low, just under the 0.5527 YTD low. Late NY has compressed into a 5-pip base beneath the ema20 at 0.55279, with ATR(14) easing to 3.4 pips and RSI(14) flat near 40.
Support: 0.55227, 0.5520
Resistance: 0.55279, 0.55323, 0.55447
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema20 at 0.55279 and the 0.5529 base top would break the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 0.55227 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5520 round number
Reclaiming the ema50 at 0.55323 would put the move back inside the post-PPI fib retracement
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC, about 4.5h out, could shift this read in thin late-Friday trade
19:16 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into late NY · RSI 40 · price 0.55255
Lower highs from NY high, tight box above day low.
The soft PPI headline lifted price to the NY high at 0.5545 in the first hour of NY, but it was rejected. The reversal printed a fresh day low at 0.5523, just under the 0.5527 YTD low, extending London's lower-high sequence. Late NY is compressing in a ~5-pip box capped by the ema20, with the ema50 at 0.5533 above, RSI 40 and ATR easing to 3.6 pips.
Support: 0.55227, 0.5500
Resistance: 0.55282, 0.55326, 0.55447
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema20 / 0.5529 box top ends the compression-below-the-low read; the ema50 at 0.5533 sits next.
Failure to hold the 0.5523 day low confirms another lower low, with the 0.5500 round number the next reference.
A move back above the ny high at 0.5545 would break the lower-highs trendline sequence.
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC (~4.7h) could materially shift this read in thin post-NY trade.
19:02 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into late NY · RSI 42 · price 0.55251
Lower highs since the PPI spike; tight 0.5523–0.5529 band below the 19m low.
London broke the Asian range low near 0.5536. The slightly soft PPI pop to the 0.5545 ppi high was sold, and price set a session low at 0.5523, just under the 0.5527 19m low. Late NY has compressed into a 0.5523–0.5529 band beneath the ema20 (0.5529), with falling highs capping, ATR easing to 3.7 pips and RSI flat at 42.3.
Support: 0.55227, 0.5520
Resistance: 0.5527, 0.55329, 0.55447
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 0.5527 (19m low) turns the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.5523 session low exposes the 0.5520 round number
Reclaiming the ema50 at 0.5533, near the fib 38.2%–50% zone, breaks the falling highs structure
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC; thin Friday late-NY liquidity can exaggerate moves
18:46 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into late NY · RSI 41 · price 0.55256
Lower highs and lows; tight 0.5523–0.5529 range under ema20.
The softer US PPI headline spiked the pair to a post-PPI high of 0.5545, but that move was sold in the NY session. Price then slid to a session low of 0.5523, a few pips below the 0.5527 19-month low. It has since compressed under the ema20 at 0.5529, with ATR easing from 5.1 to 3.9 pips and RSI(14) at 41.
Support: 0.55227
Resistance: 0.55289, 0.55332, 0.55447
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema20 at 0.5529 ends the late-NY compression and puts the ema50 at 0.5533 in play
Break below the 0.5523 session low extends the lower-low chain beyond the 19-month low
A move back above the 0.5545 post-PPI high would void the lower-high sequence
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC (~5h) could shift this read in thin Asia liquidity
18:31 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into late NY · RSI 45 · price 0.55268
Lower highs since post-PPI spike; tight base above session low.
The slightly soft US PPI spiked NZDUSD to a post-PPI high at 0.5545, which was rejected. Price then slid to a fresh session low at 0.5523 through the London-NY transition, testing the 0.5527 19-month low. Late NY is basing in a 5-pip band just under the ema20 (0.5529) with ATR compressing to 4 pips and RSI recovering to 45.
Support: 0.55227
Resistance: 0.55293, 0.55335, 0.55447
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5523 session low extends the lower-low sequence beneath the 19-month low
Close above the ema50 at 0.5534, near the fib 50% of the post-PPI drop, would neutralise the downtrend read
Holding under the ema20 at 0.5529 keeps the late-NY base capped
Fed's Jefferson speech at 00:00 UTC could shift this read in thin Asia trade
Lower highs from the post-PPI spike; tight base just under 0.5527.
The softer headline US PPI lifted the pair to 0.5545 early in NY. That spike was rejected, and the move has since fully unwound to a session low at 0.5523, below the 0.5527 19m low. Price is now compressing just under that level, with ATR(14) easing to 4 pips, RSI(14) flat around 40 and both the ema20 (0.5530) and ema50 (0.5534) capping from above.
Support: 0.55227, 0.5520
Resistance: 0.5527, 0.55295, 0.55337
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5527 19m low, then the ema20 at 0.5530, would break the lower-highs line and point to a failed breakdown
Failure to hold the 0.5523 session low exposes the 0.5520 round number
Reclaim of the ema50 at 0.5534 (near the 50% fib of the post-PPI drop) neutralises the NY selloff read
Fed's Jefferson speaks at 00:00 UTC, about 6h out, into thin late-Friday liquidity
18:03 UTC
Downtrend, fresh session lows late NY · RSI 39 · price 0.55239
Lower highs and lower lows after the post-PPI spike faded.
The NY session rallied on the slightly soft PPI headline to a 0.5545 PPI high. That move met rejection, and price has since slid to a 0.5523 session low, under the 0.5527 YTD low, as the dollar held its gains. Price sits below the ema20 (0.5530) and ema50 (0.5534), both sloping lower. RSI(14) at 38.5 is soft but not oversold, and late-NY ranges are compressing near the lows.
Support: 0.55227, 0.5520
Resistance: 0.5527, 0.55298, 0.55447
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5527 YTD low would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.5523 session low exposes the 0.5520 round number
Recovery through the ema20 and the 38.2% PPI high fib near 0.5530–0.5531 would break the lower-high sequence
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC could shift the read in thin post-NY trade
17:45 UTC
Downtrend, momentum easing late NY · RSI 40 · price 0.55253
Lower highs since post-PPI spike; fresh session low below London low.
The slightly soft US PPI headline sparked a spike to the 0.5545 PPI high that was rejected and fully faded. NY session has since printed lower highs and a session low at 0.5523, below the 0.5528 London low and the 0.5527 YTD low, with price under the ema20 (0.5530) and ema50 (0.5534). RSI(14) at 39.5 and ATR(14) contracting to 4.2 pips point to a slowing leg into the late-NY quiet.
Support: 0.55227, 0.5520
Resistance: 0.5528, 0.55303, 0.55447
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 0.5528 London low would mark the break of the 0.5527 YTD low as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.5523 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5520 round number
Recovery above the ema20 at 0.5530 and the NY lower highs trendline negates the post-PPI fade structure
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC (~6h) lands in thin Asia session liquidity and could shift this read
17:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs after PPI · RSI 40 · price 0.55254
Lower highs from the post-PPI high, fresh session low at 0.5523.
The soft headline PPI at 13:30 UTC lifted the pair to a 0.5545 post-PPI high that was rejected within the hour. The post-PPI drop has since printed lower highs through NY hours to a 0.5523 session low, briefly under the 0.5527 19-month low. Price sits below a falling ema20 (0.5531) and the ema50, with RSI(14) at 39.8, not stretched, and ATR(14) at 4.5 pips.
Support: 0.55227, 0.5520
Resistance: 0.55287, 0.55309, 0.55447
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5529 lower high and ema20 at 0.5531 breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.5523 session low exposes the 0.5520 round number
Reclaim of the 0.5545 post-PPI high negates the rejection read
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC (~6.5h) is the next scheduled risk; late-Friday NY liquidity is thinning
17:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through NY · RSI 42 · price 0.5527
Lower-high/lower-low chain below the Asian range; PPI spike rejected.
London broke below the 0.5536–0.5548 Asian range. Rallies on the softer US PPI headline were rejected at the 0.5545 post-PPI high, and late NY has printed a session low at 0.5523, just under the 0.5527 YTD low. Price is capped below a falling ema20 (0.5531) and ema50 (0.5535), with RSI(14) at 41.6, not oversold, and ATR 4.6 pips.
Support: 0.55227, 0.5520
Resistance: 0.55314, 0.55352, 0.55447
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5523 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5520 round number
Recovery above the ema20 at 0.5531 and the ema50 at 0.5535 would stall the downtrend read
Reclaim of the 0.5545 post-PPI high invalidates the intraday lower-high structure
Fed's Daly remarks in thin late-NY trade can whip price around the 0.5527 YTD low
17:01 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since London open · RSI 38 · price 0.55253
Post-PPI lower high at 0.5545, new session low below 0.5527 YTD low.
The slightly soft headline PPI drove a NY-session PPI swing up to the 0.5545 ppi high, which capped below the London open high. Price then slid back through the 0.5528 prior lows to a 0.5523 session low, beneath the 0.5527 YTD low, as hike bets held. Price is below both EMAs, RSI(14) is 38 and ATR is 4.6 pips.
Support: 0.55227, 0.5520
Resistance: 0.5528, 0.55319, 0.55447
What it said to watch
A close back above 0.5528 prior lows would turn the break of the 0.5527 YTD low into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.5523 session low exposes the 0.5520 round number
A recovery above the ema20 at 0.5532 would break the lower-high sequence
Fed's Daly is speaking now and Jefferson is due in ~7h; either could shift USD tone in thin late-NY trade
16:46 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through NY · RSI 38 · price 0.55245
Lower highs and lower lows since the post-PPI high; fresh session low below the ytd low.
The soft US PPI headline lifted the pair to 0.5543, and a second push stalled at the 0.5545 ppi high. NY has since printed lower highs into a fresh session low at 0.5524, below the 0.5527 ytd low. Price sits under a falling ema20 (0.5533) and ema50 (0.5536), ATR has expanded to 4.7 pips and RSI at 38 is not oversold.
Support: 0.55244, 0.5520
Resistance: 0.5527, 0.55326, 0.55447
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5527 ytd low would mark the break as a false break
Acceptance below the 0.5524 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5520 round number
Reclaim of the ema20 at 0.5533 breaks the NY lower-high sequence
Fed's Daly speaks in ~14 minutes and could materially shift this read
Lower highs since London, fresh day low late in NY session.
The soft headline PPI miss squeezed NZDUSD to the 0.5545 PPI high in the first hour of NY. That bounce was rejected and the post-PPI drop has since printed a fresh day low at 0.5526, under the London low and probing the 0.5527 19-month low. Price sits below the ema20 (0.5533) and ema50 (0.5536), with RSI 41.9 and ATR expanding to 4.8 pips.
Support: 0.55262, 0.5520
Resistance: 0.55333, 0.55364, 0.55447
What it said to watch
Fed's Daly speaks in ~30 min and could shift this read
Close below the 0.5526 day low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5520 round number
Recovery back above the ema20 at 0.5533 and the ema50 at 0.5536 would neutralise the post-PPI drop; 0.5545 PPI high is the session cap
Post-PPI lower high at 0.5545, fresh lower low at 0.5527 below London low.
The slightly soft headline US PPI lifted price to a 0.5545 ppi high, but that level drew rejection and the PPI fade unwound the bounce through NY hours. It printed a session low at 0.5527, the 19-month low cited in the digest, beneath London's 0.5528 low. Price trades below ema20 (0.5534) and ema50 (0.5537), RSI(14) at 39.8 is not oversold, and ATR has expanded to 5 pips from 3.
Support: 0.55268
Resistance: 0.55338, 0.55367, 0.55447
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5527 session low extends the lower-low sequence through the 19-month low
Recovery back above ema20 at 0.5534 and ema50 at 0.5537 would neutralise the PPI fade
Close above the 0.5545 ppi high invalidates the downtrend read
Fed's Daly speaks at 17:00 UTC, in about 44 minutes, and could materially shift this read
Lower lows below the Asian range; post-PPI pop rejected, price back at the ytd low.
London broke below the 0.5536–0.5547 Asian range and ground into lower lows. The soft US PPI headline sparked a pop to the 0.55447 ppi high that was fully rejected, and price is back at the 0.5527 ytd low, below both ema20 (0.55345) and ema50 (0.55371). ATR(14) has expanded to 5.1 pips from 3.1, while RSI(14) at 42 sits well clear of oversold.
Support: 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55345, 0.55371, 0.55447
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5527 ytd low extends the lower-low sequence into fresh 19-month territory
Reclaim of ema20 at 0.55345, then ema50 at 0.55371, would mark the first lower-high break since the PPI rejection
Move back above the 0.55447 ppi high invalidates the intraday downtrend read
Recovery toward the 0.5536 area of the post-PPI drop fib would test the drop's midpoint
Fed's Daly speaks in ~1h and could shift this read
15:46 UTC
Downtrend, lower lows through London and NY · RSI 41 · price 0.55273
The slightly soft US PPI print lifted NZDUSD to a 0.5545 ppi high during the first hour of NY, but the move was rejected. The post-PPI drop has unwound the full rally to test the 0.5527 ytd low, below both ema20 (0.5535) and ema50 (0.5537). RSI(14) at 41.2 is not stretched, and ATR has expanded to 5.1 pips from 3.2.
Support: 0.5527, 0.5500
Resistance: 0.5535, 0.55374, 0.55447
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman in minutes and Daly at 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 0.5527 ytd low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5500 psych level
Recovery back above ema20/ema50 at 0.5535–0.5537 neutralises the breakdown; a close above the 0.5545 ppi high invalidates the downtrend read
Lower highs through London, NY range 0.5528–0.5545.
London extended the slide to a 0.5528 session low. The softer US PPI headline sparked two spikes that met rejection at 0.5543–0.5545, and the second has given back about three-quarters of the NY bounce, leaving price below the ema20 and ema50, a few pips above the 19m low at 0.5527, with ATR expanding to 5.1 pips.
Support: 0.5528, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55357, 0.55377, 0.55447
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5528 session low and 0.5527 19m low breaks the NY range to the downside
Reclaim of ema20 and ema50 (0.5536–0.5538) with a close above the 0.5545 NY high invalidates the lower-high sequence
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
15:16 UTC
London downtrend stalled, NY rebound off lows · RSI 55 · price 0.55388
Double bottom at 0.5528, rebound fading under post-PPI high.
The slightly soft US PPI produced a double bottom at 0.5528 during NY hours, just above the 0.5527 YTD low. The rebound faded from the 0.5545 post-PPI high and price now sits on the ema50 at 0.5538, with the ema20 at 0.5536 just below. RSI(14) 55 and ATR expanding to 4.8 pips from about 3.
Support: 0.5538, 0.55361, 0.5528
Resistance: 0.55447, 0.55475
What it said to watch
M15 close below the ema20 at 0.5536 puts the 0.5528 double bottom back in play
Break of the 0.5528 double bottom exposes the 0.5527 YTD low
Close above the 0.5545 post-PPI high opens the 0.5547 Asian high
Fed's Bowman in ~34 min and Daly at 17:00 UTC could shift this read
15:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend interrupted, rebounding off the lows · RSI 58 · price 0.55412
London lower highs broken; double bottom at 0.5528 with NY reclaiming both EMAs.
London ground lower to a 0.5528 session low near the 0.5527 multi-month floor, and the slightly soft US PPI headline produced a second test at 0.5528 that was rejected. That rejection completed a double bottom, and the NY rally broke the London downtrend line and lifted price above the ema20 and ema50. Price is now stalling under the 0.5545 ppi high with RSI(14) at 58 and ATR(14) expanded to 4.8 pips from 3.0.
Support: 0.55379, 0.55357, 0.5528
Resistance: 0.55447, 0.55489
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5545 ppi high opens the 0.5549 asian high
A slip back below the ema50 at 0.5538 and the ema20 at 0.5536 would undo the double bottom read
Failure to hold the 0.5528 session low confirms a lower low
Fed's Bowman at 15:50 UTC and Daly at 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Double bottom at 0.5528 session low, price testing the PPI spike high.
London broke below the Asian range and printed a 0.5528 session low near the 19-month low. The slightly soft US PPI headline then drew a spike to 0.55434 that faded, and the second test at 0.55284 held. The 14:30 UTC bar reclaimed the ema20 and ema50, breaking the London downtrend line. Price now presses the PPI high with RSI(14) at 60.5 and ATR(14) expanding to 4.9 pips, while the London high at 0.55455 and the Asian high at 0.55475 sit just above.
Support: 0.55377, 0.55351, 0.5528
Resistance: 0.55434, 0.55455, 0.55475
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.55434 PPI high confirms the double bottom; the london high at 0.55455 and asian high at 0.55475 are next
Slip back below the ema50 at 0.55377 and the ema20 at 0.55351 (rebound 50% zone) negates the breakout read
Loss of the 0.5528 session low reopens the downtrend toward the 0.5527 YTD low
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) could shift USD hike pricing and this read
14:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London and NY · RSI 43 · price 0.5532
Lower highs from 0.5546; PPI spike rejected, price retesting session low.
London broke below the 0.5538 Asian low and extended to a 0.5528 session low. The slightly soft US PPI headline spiked price to 0.5543, but that ppi spike was rejected and price is back retesting the session low, just above the 0.5527 19m low. Price is below the ema20 and ema50, RSI(14) is at 42.9 and ATR has expanded to 4.4 pips.
Support: 0.5528, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55343, 0.55375, 0.55434
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5527 19m low confirms a lower low beneath the session low
Recovery above the ema50 at 0.55375 would end the lower-high sequence; the ema20 at 0.55343 is the first cap
Retake of the 0.5543 ppi spike high negates the post-PPI rejection
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
14:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since London open · RSI 46 · price 0.55335
Lower highs below Asian range; PPI spike rejected.
London broke below the 0.5536 Asian range low and printed a session low at 0.5528, a pip above the 0.5527 YTD low. The slightly soft US PPI headline sparked a 10-pip spike to 0.5543 that was rejected inside the same bar, leaving price back under the ema20 (0.55346) and ema50 (0.55378). ATR has lifted to 4.1 pips from 3.0 on the release, and RSI at 45.7 is neutral.
Support: 0.5528, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55346, 0.55378, 0.55434
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5528 session low and 0.5527 YTD low extends the lower-low chain
M15 close above the 0.5543 PPI spike high negates the rejection and the downtrend read
Reclaim of the ema20 and ema50 at 0.5535–0.5538 would put price back near the Asian range low
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lows below the Asian range; PPI spike rejected.
London ground lower beneath the Asian range in a lower-high chain to a 0.5528 london low. The soft-headline US PPI spiked price to 0.5543, an 88% retrace of the London leg, but the bar faded back below ema20 and the ema50 at 0.5538. That rejection leaves the intraday downtrend intact early in NY hours, with ATR(14) lifting to 4.2 pips from 3.0 and RSI(14) at 46.4.
Support: 0.5528, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.5538, 0.55434
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5528 london low brings the 0.5527 19m low into play
M15 close above the 0.5543 ppi high breaks the lower-high sequence
Sustained trade back above ema50 at 0.5538 would signal the PPI rejection is being absorbed
Fed's Bowman 15:50 UTC and Daly 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
13:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, interrupted by PPI spike · RSI 55 · price 0.55383
London lower highs broken by PPI bar; price back at ema50.
London extended below the Asian range to a 0.5528 session low, just above the 0.5527 19-month low, before the soft headline US PPI drove a spike through the descending trendline to a 0.5543 ppi high. The long upper wick marks rejection there. Price now sits on the ema50 at 0.5538, near the 61.8% fib, above the ema20, with ATR(14) expanding to 4 pips from 3.
Support: 0.55382, 0.55348, 0.5528
Resistance: 0.55434, 0.55475
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5543 ppi high clears the rejection wick and exposes the 0.5547 asian high
Slip back below the ema20 at 0.5535 returns focus to the 0.5528 session low and the 0.5527 19-month low
Fed's Bowman at 15:50 UTC and Daly at 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
13:31 UTC
Downtrend, PPI bounce off session low · RSI 45 · price 0.5538
Lower highs and lows through London; PPI bar pressing the falling trendline.
London pushed below the Asian range to a 0.5528 session low, a pip above the 0.5527 19-month low. The slightly soft headline US PPI then sparked an 8-pip pop to 0.5541, piercing the lower-highs trendline and the 61.8% of the London drop fib. The last closed bar still sits below the ema20 and ema50, with RSI 45.1 and ATR 3.5 pips, so the forming PPI bar is pressing the ema50 at 0.5538 from below.
Support: 0.55345, 0.5528, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55381, 0.5541, 0.55475
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5541 ppi high breaks the lower-highs trendline and opens the 0.5548 asian high
Slip back under the ema20 at 0.5535 puts the 0.5528 session low and the 0.5527 19-month low back in play
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) could shift USD after the in-line core PPI
13:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 42 · price 0.55318
Lower highs and lower lows since London open, pinned at the session low ahead of PPI.
London capped at the 0.5546 London high, broke below the Asian range low near 0.5536 and stepped down in lower highs to a 0.5528 session low, a pip above the 0.5527 19-month low, as USD stayed firm on Fed-hike repricing. Price sits below the ema20 (0.5535) and ema50 (0.5538), with RSI(14) at 42 after a 33 trough and ATR compressed to 3.5 pips into the US PPI release.
Support: 0.5528
Resistance: 0.55346, 0.55373, 0.55455
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~14 min) could materially shift this read; a 3.5-pip ATR understates the likely range
M15 close below the 0.5528 session low takes out the 0.5527 19-month low and extends the lower-low chain
Close above the 0.5537 swing high and the descending trendline breaks the London lower-high sequence, exposing the 0.5546 London high and the upper part of the London leg fib
Failure to reclaim the ema20 at 0.5535 keeps the descending structure intact
London lower-high sequence below the broken Asian range, pinned at the session low.
The Asian low near 0.5538 gave way before London, and the session has stepped down in a lower-high sequence to a 0.5528 session low. That low sits just above the 0.5527 19-month low, and the last bar's long lower wick shows a rejection there. Price is below the EMA20 (0.5535) and EMA50 (0.5539), with RSI at 40.7 and ATR compressed at 3.5 pips about 28 minutes before US PPI, as Fed-RBNZ divergence keeps NZD heavy.
Support: 0.55281, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55348, 0.55373, 0.5538
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read; the 3.5-pip ATR understates the event range
An M15 close below the 0.5527 19-month low extends the lower-low chain
An M15 close above the 0.5537 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the London sequence, with the asian low at 0.5538 next
Holding below the ema20 at 0.5535 keeps the lower-high structure intact
12:47 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 41 · price 0.55307
Lower-high sequence below the broken Asian range, pressing the session low.
London broke below the Asian range low near 0.5538 and printed a session low at 0.5530. The late-London bounce stalled at 0.5537, another lower high, and price is back under the ema20 (0.5535) and ema50 (0.5539), pinned just above the 0.5527 19-month low as the dollar holds firm into US PPI. RSI(14) sits at 40.5 with no extreme, and ATR is 3.5 pips, ticking up from 3.0.
Support: 0.55295, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55352, 0.55373, 0.55455
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (in 43 min) could materially shift this read; a hot core print vs a soft one is the swing factor
M15 close below the 0.5530 session low exposes the 0.5527 19m low; failure there extends the lower-low chain
M15 close above the 0.5537 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence, with the 0.5546 london high next overhead
Price reclaiming the ema20 at 0.5535 would mark the first shift in the intraday read
12:32 UTC
Downtrend, pausing ahead of US PPI · RSI 46 · price 0.55344
Lower highs through London; session low 0.55295, bounce capped at 0.55373.
London broke the Asian low near 0.5538 and stepped down through lower highs to a 0.55295 session low, with firm USD on Fed-hike pricing keeping the Kiwi heavy. The midday bounce stalled at 0.55373, about 64% of the London leg fib, and price sits just under the ema20 with the ema50 at 0.5539 above. ATR of 3.3 pips shows a compressed tape ahead of US PPI.
Support: 0.55295, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55356, 0.55373, 0.55417
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, under an hour away, could materially shift this read; a hot core print fits a push through the session low.
Failure to hold the 0.55295 session low exposes the 0.5527 ytd low.
An M15 close above the 0.55373 bounce high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 0.55417 london high back in play.
Holding below the ema20 at 0.55356 keeps the London sequence of lower highs intact.
12:17 UTC
Downtrend, compressed ahead of US PPI · RSI 45 · price 0.5535
Lower highs and lower lows since the prior NY high; Asian range broken lower in London.
London broke below the 0.5538 Asian low and extended to a 0.55295 session low, keeping the lower-low chain from yesterday's 0.5566 NY high intact as a firm USD kept the Kiwi heavy. The late-London bounce stalled at 0.55373, near the 50% of the London leg and under the Asian low, with price back below the ema20 at 0.55357 and ATR(14) compressed at 3.2 pips.
Support: 0.55295, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55357, 0.5538, 0.55394
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (in about 73 min) could materially shift this read. Compressed ATR leaves room for range expansion on the release.
An M15 close above the 0.5538 Asian low and the ema50 at 0.55394 breaks the lower highs line and neutralises the downtrend read.
Failure to hold the 0.55295 session low exposes the 0.5527 ytd low.
Lower highs and lows through London; Asian low broken, now being retested.
London broke the asia low near 0.5538 and stepped down from the 0.55455 london high to a 0.55295 session low, extending the lower-low chain as USD holds firm ahead of PPI. The latest bar bounced back above the ema20 (0.55359) into the London trendline and the broken asia low, with RSI(14) back to 49 from 33. The ema50 at 0.55396 sits near the 61.8% fib of the London leg.
Support: 0.55359, 0.55295, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.5538, 0.55396, 0.55455
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema50 at 0.55396 and the London trendline breaks the lower-high chain
Rejection at the asia low of 0.5538 keeps the London downtrend intact
A close back below the ema20 at 0.55359 reopens the 0.55295 session low, then the 0.5527 ytd low
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (88 min) can materially shift this read. ATR is only 3.2 pips, so a data spike would dwarf the current range
11:46 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 36 · price 0.55313
Asian range low broken, LH/LL chain into session low.
London broke below the Asian low at 0.5536 and has stepped down in lower highs from the 0.55455 London high to a 0.5530 session low. Price sits under both EMAs with RSI(14) at 35.9, not oversold. ATR has compressed to 3 pips ahead of US PPI, with the dollar firm and the 0.5527 YTD low just beneath.
Support: 0.55295, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55359, 0.55397, 0.55455
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~1h45m) could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 0.5527 YTD low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery back above the 0.5536 Asian low, near ema20 at 0.55358, would mark a false break
Close above the falling trendline and the ema50 at 0.55397 breaks the lower-high chain
11:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 38 · price 0.55312
Asian range broken lower; descending highs capping, session low 0.5530.
London broke below the 0.5538 Asian low and printed a chain of descending highs (0.5546, then the 0.5542 lower high) into a 0.5530 session low. Price sits under both EMAs, RSI(14) is 37.6 after a 32.9 dip, and ATR(14) is compressing to 3.1 pips. The firm USD tone ahead of US PPI has the pair drifting toward the 0.5527 YTD low.
Support: 0.55295, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55363, 0.5538, 0.55417
What it said to watch
A close back above the ema20 at 0.5536 and the 0.5538 asian low would mark the range break as false
A break of the 0.5530 session low puts the 0.5527 YTD low, 3 pips below it, in play
A close above the 0.5542 lower high breaks the descending highs line
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~2h) could materially shift this read
11:16 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower through London · RSI 33 · price 0.55314
Lower highs since London open, Asian range low broken.
London faded the 0.55455 London high and broke the 0.5536 Asian low after the 0.55417 lower high, extending to a 0.55295 session low a few pips above the 0.5527 YTD low as USD stays firm into PPI. Price is below both EMAs with RSI(14) at 32.9, not yet oversold, and ATR at 3.1 pips shows a compressed pre-data grind rather than a flush.
Support: 0.55295, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55359, 0.55417, 0.55455
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~2h) could materially shift this read
Break of the 0.55295 session low exposes the 0.5527 YTD low
M15 close back above the 0.5536 Asian low and ema20 (0.55367) weakens the breakdown
Lower-high trendline from the 0.55455 London high caps rebounds while it holds; the London leg fib 50% sits near 0.5538
11:02 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower in London · RSI 35 · price 0.55314
Asian range broken lower; lower highs from the London high.
London broke the 0.5536 Asian low and has stacked lower highs from the 0.55455 London high, printing a session low at 0.55307 with price below a falling ema20 (0.55374) and ema50 (0.55408). RSI(14) at 34.9 is soft but not oversold, and a compressed 3.2-pip ATR shows a slow grind toward the 0.5527 YTD low as USD stays firm on hawkish Fed repricing into US PPI.
Support: 0.55307, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55359, 0.55374, 0.55455
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core y/y f/c 5%) could materially shift this read
A break of the 0.55307 session low exposes the 0.5527 YTD low
An M15 close back above the 0.5536 Asian low and ema20 breaks the London lower-high sequence
A recovery through the 0.55455 London high negates the Asian range break
Lower highs and lower lows since London open, below Asian range.
London broke the 0.5538 Asian range floor and has since stepped down from the 0.5546 London high through a 0.5542 lower high, printing a fresh session low near 0.5533 as firm USD keeps the Kiwi heavy. Price sits below a falling ema20 (0.5538) and ema50, RSI 37 is soft but not stretched, and ATR of 3.2 pips shows a slow grind toward the 0.5527 YTD low.
Support: 0.55325, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.5538, 0.55417, 0.55455
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read
Break below the 0.5527 ytd low extends the lower-low sequence into fresh lows
M15 close back above the ema20 and Asian floor near 0.5538 stalls the descent
A move above the 0.5542 lower high and the lower-high trendline breaks the London downtrend structure
Lower highs below Asian range, London session low at 0.55335.
The Asian range (0.5538–0.55475 asian high) broke lower just before London. The London leg has since printed lower highs along a descending trendline below the ema50 at 0.55415, with the session low at 0.55335 now about 6 pips above the 0.5527 YTD low. RSI(14) at 40 and ATR at 3.3 pips show a low-energy slide as the USD holds firm ahead of US PPI.
Support: 0.55335, 0.5530, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.5538, 0.55415, 0.55475
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5538 asian low (ema20 at 0.55385) would stall the lower-high sequence
Close above the descending trendline and ema50 near 0.55415 invalidates the London downtrend read
Break of the 0.55335 session low exposes the 0.5530 round number and the 0.5527 ytd low
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core f/c 5% y/y) could materially shift this read; Bowman follows at 15:50 UTC
Lower highs since Asia; London broke below the Asian range low.
London slipped below the Asian range low near 0.5536 to a session low at 0.55335. That extends the lower-high chain from the 0.55475 Asian high, with price capped under the ema20 (0.55389) and ema50 (0.55418) as USD holds firm on the hot CPI. ATR(14) at 3.3 pips points to a compressed pre-PPI tape, with the 0.5527 YTD low about 6 pips below.
Support: 0.55335, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55389, 0.55417, 0.55475
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.55417 lower high and ema50 breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 0.55335 session low exposes the 0.5527 YTD low
A recovery into the 38.2% fib of yesterday's NY drop (~0.5546) would meet the Asian high at 0.55475
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs through London after a break below the Asian range low.
The Asian range low near 0.5538 gave way before London. London has since stepped down in lower highs from 0.55455 to 0.55417 and printed a session low at 0.55335, with price below a falling EMA20 and EMA50 as the USD holds firm ahead of US PPI. RSI(14) at 43.6 is neutral and ATR of 3.4 pips points to compressed intraday ranges.
Support: 0.55335, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55392, 0.55417, 0.55475
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.55417 lower high and the ema50 at 0.5542 would break the lower-high chain.
Reclaiming the ema20 at 0.55392 would be the first sign the London grind is stalling.
Failure to hold the 0.55335 session low exposes the 0.5527 ytd low.
The 0.55475 asian high caps the range above.
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, about 3.5h away, could materially shift this read.
09:46 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower in London · RSI 39 · price 0.55341
Lower highs below falling EMAs; Asian range low broken.
London broke below the Asian range low near 0.5538 and printed a new session low at 0.5534. Lower highs at the 0.5546 London high and the 0.5542 lower high sit beneath a falling ema20 (0.5539) and ema50 (0.5542). RSI(14) is 38.7, short of oversold, and ATR is compressed at 3.4 pips as the firm USD keeps the pair heavy above the 0.5527 YTD low ahead of US PPI.
Support: 0.55341, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55394, 0.55417, 0.55455
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (15:30 broker) could materially shift this read; ATR at 3.4 pips is likely to expand on the release
An M15 close back above the 0.5542 lower high and ema50 breaks the lower-high sequence and the descending trendline
Holding below the ema20 at 0.5539 keeps the Asian range low as a capping level
Extension through the session low at 0.5534 brings the 0.5527 YTD low into play
09:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 40 · price 0.55355
Lower-high sequence pressing the Asian range low.
London has printed lower highs at 0.5546, 0.5544 and 0.5542 and is now pressing the 0.5536 Asian low. Price sits below the ema20 (0.5540) and ema50 (0.5543), with RSI(14) at 40 and ATR(14) expanding to 3.5 pips. USD firmness on hawkish Fed repricing into US PPI keeps the pair heavy near the 0.5527 YTD low.
Support: 0.55359, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55399, 0.55417, 0.55475
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5536 asian low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 0.5527 ytd low
Close back above the 0.5542 lower high and the lower highs trendline negates the London sell-off read
Reclaim of the ema20 and the 0.5547 asian high returns price to the full Asian range
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~4h) could materially shift this read
09:16 UTC
Downtrend, momentum flat into PPI · RSI 47 · price 0.55395
Lower highs capping a tight 0.5536–0.5542 London range.
Price is compressed in a tight range in early London, still below a falling ema20 and ema50 as the USD holds firm into US PPI. The London open spike to the 0.5545 london high met rejection, and the london low at 0.5537 has held three times since, just above the 0.5536 swing low.
Support: 0.5537, 0.55359, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55403, 0.55428, 0.55455
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5536 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5527 ytd low
Reclaim of ema20/ema50 (0.5540/0.5543) and a break of the lower highs line would neutralise the downtrend read
Close above the 0.5545 london high breaks the range to the upside
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~4h) is the likely range-break catalyst; ATR at 3.4 pips points to compressed conditions ahead of it
09:02 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 45 · price 0.55401
Lower highs over a flat 0.5536–0.5537 base.
Pre-London selling took out Thursday's low to a 0.55359 session low. Early London is now holding a tight 0.5536–0.5541 band, with lower highs from the 0.55475 Asian high and the 0.55455 London high keeping price capped under the ema20 (0.55404) and ema50 (0.55429). NZD stays heavy on Fed-RBNZ divergence into US PPI; RSI(14) at 45 and ATR(14) at 3.4 pips show compressed ranges.
Support: 0.55359, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55404, 0.55455, 0.55475
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.55455 London high breaks the lower-high sequence and the trendline
Failure to hold the 0.55359 session low exposes the 0.5527 YTD low
Repeated rejection at the ema20 near 0.55404 keeps the downtrend read intact
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core y/y f/c 5%) could materially shift this read and expand ATR from 3.4 pips
Lower highs since Asia, flat floor at the Asian low.
Early London faded from the 0.5546 London high and price is again pressing the 0.5536 Asian low beneath a falling ema20 and ema50. Lower highs since 01:30 UTC sit over that flat floor, and the bounce after yesterday's NY rejection at 0.5566 has stalled near the 38.2% of the NY swing fib. USD stays firm into PPI; RSI(14) is 42 and ATR is 3.4 pips.
Support: 0.55359, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55406, 0.55431, 0.55455
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5536 Asian low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5527 ytd low
Reclaim of ema20 at 0.5541 and ema50 at 0.5543 eases the lower-highs pressure
Close above the 0.5546 london high breaks the lower-highs line and neutralises the read
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read
08:31 UTC
Drifting lower, below both EMAs · RSI 44 · price 0.5538
Lower highs off Asian high, lows holding 0.5536–0.5538.
Asia held a 0.5538–0.5548 range. Early London swept the Asian low to a 0.5536 session low, and the London-open bounce stalled at 0.5546 (london high) beneath the ema50 before slipping back to 0.5538. Lower highs from the 0.5548 asian high define a descending trendline, with USD firm and NZD on a four-day slide into US PPI; ATR(14) is a tight 3.4 pips and RSI(14) is neutral at 43.6.
Support: 0.55359, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55409, 0.55455, 0.55475
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5536 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5527 ytd low
Reclaim of the ema20 at 0.5541 and a break of the descending trendline above the 0.5546 london high would neutralise the drift; the 0.5548 asian high caps the range above
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) in ~5h could materially shift this read and expand ATR well beyond 3.4 pips
After NY's slide from 0.5566, the pair has compressed in a 0.5536–0.5548 band. Early London swept the Asian low to a 0.5536 session low and bounced, but the rebound stalled at the 0.5546 London high, extending lower highs from the 0.5548 Asian high. Price sits just under the ema20 at 0.5541 and the ema50, with ATR at 3.4 pips, as Kiwi weakness into US PPI keeps the 0.5527 YTD low close.
Support: 0.55359, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55412, 0.55455, 0.55475
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5536 session low exposes the 0.5527 YTD low
Close above the 0.5546 London high breaks the lower-highs trendline from the Asian high
Repeated failure at the ema20 near 0.5541 keeps the compression pointed lower
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~5h) could materially shift this read
08:02 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower below both EMAs · RSI 40 · price 0.55378
Lower highs from the Asian high; London open bounce faded back to the session low.
The London open bounce from the 0.5536 session low stalled at 0.5546 (london high), under the asian high at 0.5548, and has faded back to 0.5537. Price sits below a declining ema20 (0.5541) and ema50 (0.5544) with RSI(14) at 40 and ATR at a compressed 3.3 pips, as USD firmness after hot CPI keeps NZD heavy ahead of US PPI.
Support: 0.55359, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55412, 0.55455, 0.55475
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5536 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5527 ytd low
Recovery above the ema20 and the 0.5546 london high breaks the lower-highs line
US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; ATR compression suggests a range expansion on the release
A move toward 0.5548 (asian high) would neutralise the intraday downtrend
07:46 UTC
Heavy, price below both EMAs · RSI 44 · price 0.55395
Asian range 0.5538–0.5548, early-London false break below, lower highs.
The Asian range of 0.5538–0.5548 broke briefly at the London open, which swept to a london low at 0.5536 before snapping back to a 0.5546 bounce high. Price has since slipped back under the ema20 at 0.5542 with RSI(14) at 43.9 and ATR at 3.3 pips. Lower highs off the asian high keep the tape heavy after hot US CPI and Fed-RBNZ divergence pressure.
Support: 0.55361, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55416, 0.55455, 0.55475
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5536 london low voids the false-break read and exposes the 0.5527 ytd low
Close above the 0.5548 asian high breaks the lower-highs line and the range cap
Rejection at the ema20 near 0.5542 or the 0.5546 bounce high keeps lower highs intact
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~5.7h) could materially shift this read
07:31 UTC
Sideways after NY selloff, ema50 sloping lower · RSI 49 · price 0.55398
0.5536–0.5548 range, lower highs from the Asian high.
NZDUSD has held a 0.5536–0.5548 range since the NY-session drop from 0.5566. The pre-London dip to a 0.5536 session low swept the 0.5538 Asian low before snapping back, and lower highs have capped price since the 0.5548 Asian high. Price sits at the flat ema20 below a declining ema50 at 0.5544, with RSI(14) 49 and ATR 3.2 pips showing compression as hawkish Fed repricing keeps NZD heavy.
Support: 0.5538, 0.55359, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55441, 0.55475, 0.55678
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5536 session low breaks the overnight range and brings the 0.5527 YTD low into view
Close above the ema50 at 0.5544 and the 0.5548 Asian high negates the lower-highs line from Asia; 0.5568 prior high is the next reference
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~6h) could materially shift this read
Shallow lower lows inside 0.5536–0.5552 band since the NY sell-off.
Asia ground out marginal lower lows past the 0.5538 swing lows to a 0.5536 session low. A pre-London bounce to 0.5545 then cleared the Asian lower-high line and reclaimed ema20, but stalled at ema50 (0.5544), with RSI back to 50.8 from 37. USD stays bid on 50bp December Fed hike talk after the hot CPI, and ATR at 3.3 pips shows a compressed tape below the 0.5552 NY range top.
Support: 0.55359, 0.5538, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55442, 0.55475, 0.55516
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5547 asian high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 0.5552 ny range top in play
Failure at the 0.5536 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5527 ytd low
Slip back below ema20 (0.5542) returns the pre-London bounce to a rejection at ema50
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read; Fed speakers follow during NY hours
Lower highs since the NY high; Asian low swept and reclaimed.
NZDUSD has ground lower under a lower-highs line since the 0.5566 NY high faded, with hot-CPI Fed-hike repricing keeping USD bid. The pre-London dip swept the 0.5538 Asian low to the 0.5536 swing low and snapped back. The last closed bar sat just below ema20 and ema50, RSI(14) recovered to 48.2 from 37.3, and the forming bar is pressing ema50 and the trendline near 0.5545. ATR at 3.3 pips points to tight conditions.
Support: 0.5538, 0.55359, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55442, 0.55475
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5548 asian high breaks the lower-highs line and opens the 0.5566 ny high
Slip back below the 0.5538 asian low reopens the 0.5536 swing low, with the 0.5527 ytd low beneath
Rejection at ema50 near 0.5544 keeps the lower-highs sequence intact
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read
Late Asia has slipped through the Asian low at 0.5538 to a new session low at 0.5536. Price is below a falling ema20 and ema50, and lower highs have run since the 0.55475 Asian high. RSI(14) at 37.3 is soft but not oversold, and ATR(14) has compressed to 3 pips ahead of London open, with Fed-hike bets after the hot US CPI keeping NZD heavy.
Support: 0.5536, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.5538, 0.55418, 0.55475
What it said to watch
Failure to recover the asian low at 0.5538 keeps the 0.5527 ytd low in range
An M15 close back above the ema20 at 0.55418 and the lower-highs line weakens the downtrend read
A move back above the 0.55475 asian high reverses the Asian structure
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read
Lower highs through Asia, now probing below the Asian low.
Thursday's NY selloff from 0.5566 to 0.5540 came amid hawkish Fed commentary and set the tone. Asia has printed a chain of lower highs off the 0.5548 asian high, capped below ema20 and ema50. The current bar is probing under the 0.5538 asian low ahead of London open, with RSI(14) at 39 and ATR at 3 pips pointing to a slow grind rather than a flush.
Support: 0.5538, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55423, 0.55446, 0.55475
What it said to watch
Sustained trade below the 0.5538 asian low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5527 ytd low
An M15 close back above ema50 at 0.5545 and the Asia lower-high trendline breaks the downtrend read; the 0.5548 asian high sits just above
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~7h) could materially shift this read, with Bowman and Daly speaking later in NY
06:16 UTC
Downtrend paused, ranging below both EMAs · RSI 44 · price 0.55403
Asia range 0.5538–0.5548 after NY lower high and selloff.
NY's lower high at 0.5566 gave way to a selloff into 0.5540 on a firm USD after hot CPI and hawkish Fed talk. Asia has since held a tight 0.5538–0.5548 range, with the range low tested four times, price capped under the ema20 and ATR(14) compressed to 3 pips.
Support: 0.5538, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55427, 0.55475
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5538 range low exposes the 0.5527 ytd low
Close above the 0.5548 range top and ema20 breaks the Asia range to the upside
Selloff fib 38.2% near 0.5549 coincides with the range top
US PPI at 13:30 UTC could break the range in either direction
06:02 UTC
Heavy, drifting below both EMAs · RSI 45 · price 0.55415
Tight Asian range after NY sell-off.
Late Asia session, with NZDUSD compressed in a 0.5538–0.5548 Asian range after the firm USD drove the NY sell-off from the 0.5566 ny high. The asian low at 0.5538 has held three times overnight. Price sits below the ema20 (0.5543) and the ema50 (0.5545), RSI(14) is at 45 and ATR has compressed from 4 to 3 pips.
Support: 0.5538, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.5545, 0.55475
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5538 asian low opens the 0.5527 ytd low, about 11 pips lower
Reclaim of the 0.5545 ema50 and the 0.5548 asian high breaks the overnight cap and points back toward the 0.5566 ny high
London open in about 2h is the first test of the Asian range after ATR compression
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read
Tight Asian range 0.5538–0.5548 under a falling EMA pair, highs fading into the floor.
The NY drop from London's 0.5568 high bottomed near 0.5540, and Asia has since held a tight range above the 0.5538 asian low. Rebounds have stalled below the 0.5548 asian high, and price is back at the floor under both ema20 and ema50, with RSI(14) at 41.8. ATR(14) has compressed to 3 pips as DXY holds above 103 into US PPI, with the 0.5527 ytd low the next reference below.
Support: 0.5538, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55431, 0.55452, 0.55475
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5538 asian low breaks the Asian range floor and exposes the 0.5527 ytd low
Recovery through ema20 at 0.5543 and ema50 at 0.5545, then the 0.5548 asian high, invalidates the fading-highs read
London open is the first test of the compressed Asian range
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read
05:16 UTC
Mild downtrend, flattening into range · RSI 45 · price 0.55414
Lower highs since NY, inside a tight Asian range.
Late Asia session: price sits at 0.5541 in the lower half of the 0.5538–0.5548 Asian range. That follows NY's USD-driven slide from the 0.5566 NY high as the Fed repriced. It holds below the ema20 at 0.5544 and the ema50 at 0.5546, with ATR compressed to 3 pips and RSI 44.6. Lower highs since NY keep the Asian high capped, while the 0.5540 recent low and the 0.5538 Asian low have held so far.
Support: 0.5540, 0.5538, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55436, 0.55475
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5538 asian low breaks the range and exposes the 0.5527 ytd low
Close above the 0.5548 asian high breaks the lower highs line and invalidates the range-bottom read
London open is the first test of this 3-pip ATR compression
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, then Bowman and Daly, could materially shift this read
05:02 UTC
Flat after NY sell-off, below both EMAs · RSI 49 · price 0.55438
Tight 0.5538–0.5548 Asian range, lower highs pressing on flat lows.
The NY session reversed from 0.5566 to 0.5540 as Fed hike repricing lifted the USD. Price has since compressed into a late-Asia range of 0.5538–0.5548, with flat lows at the asian low and a descending highs line from the 0.5552 ny high. Price sits fractionally below ema20 and below ema50, with RSI(14) at 49 and ATR(14) contracting to 3.1 pips.
Support: 0.5538, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55457, 0.55475, 0.55516
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5538 asian low exposes the 0.5527 ytd low, about 11 pips lower
M15 close above the 0.5548 asian high and the descending highs line breaks the compression read; the 0.5552 ny high sits above
ema50 at 0.5546 has capped every Asian bounce
US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read, with Fed's Bowman and Daly speaking later in the NY session
04:46 UTC
Downtrend, compressing in a tight range · RSI 45 · price 0.55424
12h range 0.5538–0.5548 after the NY selloff, lower highs.
Firm USD on Fed-hike pricing drove a 27-pip slide from the 0.5568 London high to 0.5540 in NY. Since then price has ranged 0.5538–0.5548 through Asia, under the ema20 (0.55438) and EMA50, with a swing low at 0.5540 and the asian low at 0.5538. ATR is down to 3.1 pips and lower highs are capping each bounce below the 0.5552 ny bounce hi.
Support: 0.5540, 0.5538, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55438, 0.5547, 0.5552
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5538 asian low breaks the range and puts the 0.5527 ytd low in view
M15 close above the 0.5547 range top and the lower-highs line invalidates the compression-lower read
US PPI at 13:30 UTC could break the 0.5538–0.5548 range; ATR at 3.1 pips leaves room for expansion
London open in about 2h is the first test of the Asian range
04:31 UTC
Heavy below flat EMAs, range-bound · RSI 43 · price 0.55424
Tight Asian range under NY lower highs.
Late Asia session, price is boxed in a 0.5538–0.5548 range after the NY sell-off from the 0.5566 ny high. That drop came as the dollar firmed on Fed hike bets. Price sits below the flat ema20 (0.5544) and ema50 (0.5546), RSI(14) is at 42.6, and ATR has compressed to 3.2 pips. The asia low at 0.5538 has been tested four times and has held each time.
Support: 0.5538, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.5544, 0.55475
What it said to watch
A break below the 0.5538 asia low exposes the 0.5527 ytd low.
A close above the 0.5548 asia high breaks the lower highs line from the ny high and clears both EMAs.
US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read.
London open is the first test of the compressed Asian range.
04:16 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 45 · price 0.55409
Lower highs since NY high, tight range above Asian low.
Late Asia session is drifting back toward the 0.5538 Asian low after the bounce stalled at the 0.5547 Asian high. Price sits below the ema20 (0.55443) and ema50 (0.55462), with lower highs intact since the 0.55655 NY high and the NY sell-off that followed it, as hawkish Fed repricing keeps the Kiwi heavy. ATR(14) has compressed to 3.3 pips and RSI(14) at 45 is neutral.
Support: 0.5538, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55443, 0.55475, 0.55655
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5538 Asian low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5527 ytd low
Close above the 0.5547 Asian high breaks the lower highs trendline and neutralises the downtrend read
Reclaim of the ema20 at 0.55443 shifts the read back to a flat range
London open is the first test of the Asian range; US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from NY high; Asia basing above 0.5538, tight 0.5542–0.5548 box.
The NY sell-off took price from 0.5566 to 0.5540 as USD firmed on hawkish Fed commentary. Asia has held the 0.5538 asian low three times and is now boxed between the 0.5542 micro low and the 0.5548 session high, sitting above ema20 and just under the ema50 at 0.55463. RSI(14) is neutral at 53 and ATR(14) has compressed to 3.2 pips, so no setup is in play.
Support: 0.55422, 0.5538
Resistance: 0.55463, 0.55475, 0.5550
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.55475 session high clears the ema50 and the lower-highs line, opening the 0.5550 round number
Failure to hold the 0.5542 micro low exposes the 0.5538 asian low; a break there resumes the lower-low sequence of the NY sell-off
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, followed by Fed's Bowman, could materially shift this read; a hot print would put the 0.5527 YTD low in focus
03:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, stalling in Asia · RSI 54 · price 0.55461
Lower highs since NY; tight Asian range 0.5538–0.5548.
The firm-USD NY sell-off ran from the 0.5566 high at 13:45 UTC to the 0.5540 area. Asia has since held a 0.5538–0.5548 range, with the asian low tested three times. Price sits at the range top, above the ema20 at 0.5544 but capped just under the ema50 at 0.5546, with ATR compressing to 3.3 pips.
Support: 0.55443, 0.5538, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55463, 0.55475, 0.55516
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5548 asian high and the lower highs trendline breaks the NY lower-high sequence. That opens the 0.5552 ny swing hi, near the 50% retrace of the NY sell-off.
Failure to hold the 0.5538 asian low resumes the NY sell-off, with the 0.5527 ytd low next.
Loss of the ema20 at 0.5544 returns price to the middle of the Asian range.
US Oct PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read.
03:31 UTC
Downtrend stalling into a tight Asia range · RSI 53 · price 0.55458
Lower highs from NY high 0.5566; Asia base 0.5538–0.5548.
Rejection at the 0.5566 NY high after the claims print extended the sell-off on firm USD. Three probes of the 0.5538 Asia low held overnight, and price is now boxed in the Asia range under the 0.5548 Asia high. It sits between ema20 (0.5544) and ema50 (0.5546), with RSI 52.5 neutral and ATR(14) compressing to 3.4 pips.
Support: 0.55442, 0.5538, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55463, 0.55475
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5548 Asia high and the 38.2% fib of the NY sell-off (~0.5549) breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure at the 0.5538 Asia low exposes the 0.5527 ytd low
Loss of ema20 at 0.5544 returns price to the bottom of the Asia range
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (15:30 broker) could materially shift this read
03:16 UTC
Down from NY high, basing in Asia · RSI 52 · price 0.55458
Asian range 0.5538–0.55475 after NY selloff; triple test of low.
The NY selloff from 0.5566 on firm USD and hawkish Fed talk ran into an Asian low at 0.5538, which held on three tests. Price at 0.5546 sits in the upper half of the Asian range, above the ema20 (0.5544) but just under the ema50 (0.55464). RSI(14) is neutral at 52 and ATR of 3.6 pips points to a compressed session.
Support: 0.5544, 0.5538, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55475, 0.55516
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.55475 asian high, and then the 0.5552 swing high, breaks the Asian range and extends the NY selloff fib retracement
Failure to hold the 0.5538 asian low exposes the 0.5527 ytd low
Slip back below the ema20 at 0.5544 returns price to the lower half of the range
US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) follow
03:02 UTC
Flat after NY sell-off, compressing · RSI 53 · price 0.55452
Tight Asian range, higher lows off 0.5538.
Mid-Asia session, price is boxed in a 0.5538–0.55475 Asian range below the late-NY high at 0.55516. That NY high capped the bounce after yesterday's NY sell-off to 0.5540, with USD still firm on Williams' hawkish remarks. The asian low has held three tests and a higher low printed at 0.55422; price sits between the ema20 and ema50 with RSI 52.7 neutral and ATR 3.7 pips.
Support: 0.55438, 0.55422, 0.5538
Resistance: 0.55464, 0.55475, 0.55516
What it said to watch
M15 close above the asian high at 0.55475 (just over the ema50) breaks the range to the upside toward the ny high at 0.55516
Loss of the 0.55422 higher low and the ema20 puts the 0.5538 asian low back in play; a break there sets a fresh window low
London open is the next liquidity test of the Asian range
US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
02:46 UTC
Downtrend, compressing in Asia · RSI 47 · price 0.55424
Asian range 0.5538–0.5548 below a lower-highs line from the NY bounce.
NZDUSD fell from the 0.5568 London high to around 0.5540 during NY hours as USD firmed on hawkish Fedspeak, and the Asia session has since held a tight 0.5538–0.5548 range with the asian low holding three tests. Price sits below the ema20 at 0.55437 and the EMA50, with RSI(14) at 46.5 and ATR at 3.7 pips. Lower highs from the ny bounce at 0.5552 are still capping the range.
Support: 0.5538, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55437, 0.5548, 0.5552
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5538 asian low breaks the Asian range and opens the 0.5527 ytd low
Close above the 0.5548 asian high and the lower-highs line challenges the downtrend read, with the 0.5552 ny bounce next
Repeated failure at the ema20 near 0.5544 keeps the range top capped
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, plus Bowman and Daly later, could materially shift this read
02:31 UTC
Downtrend, stalling in Asia · RSI 46 · price 0.55434
Lower highs since NY peak; tight Asian range above 0.5538.
Lower highs since the 0.5566 NY-session peak, with USD firm after Williams' hawkish remarks. Asia has held 0.5538–0.5548: three tests of the Asian low held, and the 0.5548 Asian high capped the bounce just above the ema50 (0.5547). Price is now back under the ema20 at 0.5544, RSI(14) 46 and ATR 3.8 pips, so this is mid-range with no break in play.
Support: 0.5538, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55438, 0.55475, 0.55516
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5538 asian low exposes the 0.5527 ytd low
Close above the 0.5548 asian high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the sequence and opens the 0.5552 swing high
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, then Bowman and Daly, could materially shift this read
The NY sell-off from 0.5566 left a chain of lower highs. That chain has compressed into a 0.5538–0.5548 Asian range, and the latest bounce stalled at the asian high, just under the 38.2% retrace of the drop, with ema50 at 0.5547 sitting alongside. Price is flat on ema20 with RSI 49 and ATR 3.9 pips, while USD firmness after Williams' hawkish remarks keeps the asian low and the ytd low at 0.5527 close by.
Support: 0.5538, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55475, 0.55516
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5538 asian low exposes the 0.5527 ytd low
Close above the 0.5547 asian high and the lower-highs line breaks the descending sequence, with the 0.5552 lower high next
US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
02:03 UTC
Downtrend, compressing into Asian range · RSI 48 · price 0.55444
Lower highs since NY high, flat base at 0.5538.
NZDUSD has printed lower highs since the 0.5566 NY high, with USD firmness on hawkish Fedspeak from Williams pressing price into a 0.5538–0.5549 Asian range. The Asia low was tested three times without a close below. Price sits below both EMAs, with the ema50 at 0.5547 capping, RSI(14) neutral at 48 and ATR(14) up to 4 pips from 2.7.
Support: 0.5538, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55469, 0.55489, 0.55516
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5538 Asia low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5527 YTD low
Close above the 0.5549 Asia high and the 38.2% fib of the NY selloff breaks the lower-highs line, with the 0.5552 lower high next
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, then Bowman (15:50) and Daly (17:00), could materially shift this read
01:46 UTC
Downtrend, basing in Asia · RSI 53 · price 0.55464
Lower highs from 0.5566 NY high; Asia range 0.5538–0.5548.
NZDUSD broke down from the 0.5566 NY high in early NY hours as hawkish Fedspeak kept USD firm, and held under a 0.5552 lower high into Asia. The Asia session has seen three rejections of the 0.5538 asia low and a bounce into the ema50 at 0.5547. Price sits above the ema20 (0.5544) with RSI 52.7 neutral and ATR expanding to 4.1 pips.
Support: 0.5544, 0.5538
Resistance: 0.5547, 0.5552, 0.5566
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema50 at 0.5547 breaks the Asian range top and puts the 0.5552 lower high in play
Failure to hold 0.5538 asia low resumes the downtrend sequence
Slip back below the ema20 at 0.5544 returns price to the middle of the Asian range
Descending highs line from 0.5566 caps price unless 0.5552 gives way
US PPI at 13:30 UTC today, followed by Bowman and Daly, could materially shift this read
01:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, basing in Asia · RSI 54 · price 0.55469
Lower highs from the London high, Asia range 0.5538–0.5549 under ema50.
USD strength through the NY session pushed NZDUSD from the 0.5566 area to 0.5540, and early Asia has since printed a 0.5538 asia low three times, each met by buying. The latest bar lifted price above ema20 (0.55438) and into ema50 (0.55471), just under the 0.55489 asia high and the lower-highs trendline. RSI 53.9 is neutral, and ATR has expanded to 4.2 pips.
Support: 0.55438, 0.5538, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55471, 0.55489, 0.55516
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.55489 asia high breaks the lower-highs trendline and opens the 0.55516 ny swing hi, near the 38.2–50% fib of the drop from the London high
Rejection at ema50 0.55471 keeps the Asia range intact, with ema20 at 0.55438 the first test below
Failure to hold the 0.5538 asia low exposes the 0.5527 ytd low
US PPI today at 13:30 UTC, followed by Bowman and Daly, could materially shift this read
Tight Asian range 0.5538–0.5549 under a lower-high sequence.
After NY rejected 0.5566 and sold to the 0.5540 ny low on firm USD, Asia has held a 0.5538–0.5549 range. The asia low has been defended three times. The 01:00 close sat below both EMAs, with RSI(14) at 44.5 and ATR(14) up to 4 pips from 2.7. Highs keep stepping down from the 0.5552 lower high to the 0.5549 asia high, and the ema50 at 0.5547 sits just under that range top.
Support: 0.5538, 0.55404
Resistance: 0.55471, 0.55489, 0.55516
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5538 asia low extends the lower-low chain beyond the ny low at 0.5540
Close above the 0.5549 asia high, clearing the ema50, breaks the lower-high trendline and the range read
US PPI at 13:30 UTC is the next scheduled USD catalyst and could materially shift this read
Lower highs since NY 0.5566 top; marginal lower lows compressing above 0.5538.
NY rejected 0.5566 and slid 25 pips to 0.5540 as firm USD (hot CPI, Williams' hawkish tone) weighed; the 0.5552 NY bounce high capped, and Asia has printed shallow lower lows into the 0.5538 session low. Price sits below the ema20 (0.5544) and ema50 (0.5547), RSI(14) 40.4 and ATR(14) 4 pips, so the grind lower is slow rather than impulsive.
Support: 0.5538, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55437, 0.55473, 0.55516
What it said to watch
Break below the 0.5538 session low leaves the 0.5527 ytd low as the next reference
M15 close back above the ema50 near 0.5547 breaks the lower-highs chain
Recovery through the 0.5552 ny bounce hi opens a deeper retracement of the NY sell-off
US PPI at 13:30 UTC today, then Bowman and Daly, could materially shift this read
Tight 0.5538–0.5552 range since NY sell-off; floor probed repeatedly.
The NY sell-off from 0.5566 as USD firmed on Fed-hike pricing has given way to a 0.5538–0.5552 range, with price below a declining ema20 and ema50. The Asia session has probed the range floor at 0.5538 three times without a close below. RSI(14) is 42.8 and ATR is a compressed 3.9 pips, so moves remain small.
Support: 0.55384, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55441, 0.55476, 0.55516
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5538 range floor opens the 0.5527 ytd low
Close back above the ema20 at 0.5544 and the ema50 at 0.5548 would ease downside pressure
Break above the 0.5552 range top invalidates the range read and puts the NY sell-off 50% retracement near 0.5552 in focus
US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Post-NY range 0.5538–0.5552 with lower highs, floor swept in Asia.
Firm USD after the hot CPI repricing drove a NY session drop from the 0.5566 NY high to 0.5540. Since then the pair has ranged above the 0.5538 range floor, under a run of lower highs from the 0.5552 range top. Early Asia session swept the floor and closed back above ema20, with price still capped below ema50 at 0.5548. RSI(14) neutral at 50.6, ATR 3.9 pips.
Support: 0.55384, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55479, 0.55516
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5538 range floor exposes the 0.5527 ytd low
Close above ema50 and the 0.5552 range top breaks the lower-highs line
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC, then Fed's Bowman and Daly, could materially shift this read
Lower highs into a 0.5539–0.5549 range after the NY selloff.
NY sold off from 0.5566 to 0.5540 as USD firmed on hawkish Fed repricing. Since then price has compressed in a 0.5539–0.5549 range with lower highs below ema20 and ema50, and the early Asia session is leaning on the 0.5539 range low with RSI(14) at 37.7 and ATR(14) at 3.6 pips.
Support: 0.55386, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55444, 0.55489, 0.55516
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5539 range low exposes the 0.5527 YTD low
Close above the 0.5549 range top and the lower-highs trendline breaks the selloff sequence; NY bounce high at 0.5552 sits above
Price holding below ema20 at 0.5544 keeps the lower-highs structure intact
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:02 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 45 · price 0.55397
Lower highs since the 0.55655 NY high; base at 0.5539-0.5540 being retested in early Asia.
Lower highs have stacked since the 0.55655 NY high as firm USD on Fed hike pricing drove the afternoon sell-off. The 22:45 UTC sweep below the 0.55396 ny low to 0.55386 recovered only to a 0.55474 lower high under the descending trendline. Early Asia is pressing that base again with price below ema20 at 0.55448 and the EMA50, RSI 45 and ATR a quiet 3.6 pips.
Support: 0.55396, 0.55386, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55448, 0.55474, 0.55516
What it said to watch
Break below the 0.55386 sweep low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5527 ytd low
Close above the 0.55474 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the sequence; the 0.55516 ny bounce high sits above
US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read