NZD/USD AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Friday, 13 November 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the NZD/USD 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:13 UTC
Downtrend, closing on the week low · RSI 33 · price 0.55212
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's London high.
The pair has stepped lower each day since Tuesday's London high near 0.5650, with the hot US CPI in NY hours starting the slide, and price has stayed below a falling EMA(20) and EMA(50) throughout. The softer headline PPI only produced a brief spike to the ppi high at 0.5545, which met rejection just under the EMA(50) at 0.5547. The NY session then took price through the 0.5527 broken low to a Friday close on the week low at 0.5521. RSI(14) at 33 is holding above its earlier 28.7 trough even as price set a lower low, a mild bullish divergence, while ATR has eased back to 7.2 pips from 8.6 after the data.
Support: 0.55208, 0.5500, 0.5485
Resistance: 0.5527, 0.55328, 0.55447
What it said to watch
Hourly closes back above the 0.5527 broken low and the EMA(20) at 0.5533 would challenge the lower-high sequence
A move through the 0.5545 ppi high and the lower-highs trendline would break the week's structure
Continued trade below the 0.5521 week low exposes the 0.5500 round number, then the 0.5485 zone top
Fed's Jefferson tonight and Warsh on Monday 17:00 UTC carry risk for the weekly open
RBNZ Inflation Expectations Tue 02:00 UTC could shift NZD hike odds
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's CPI drop; fresh week low just under 0.5527.
NZDUSD has built a steady run of lower highs since the hot US CPI print broke Tuesday's 0.5650 area, with every bounce failing below a falling EMA(20) and price now under both EMAs. The softer US PPI headline gave only a brief NY-session pop to the 0.5545 ppi high, rejected just under EMA(50), and late NY slipped to a fresh week low at 0.5521, marginally through the 0.5527 ytd low. RSI(14) at 33 sits above Friday's 28.7 dip despite the lower close, a mild bullish divergence, while ATR eases back to 7.2 pips.
Support: 0.55208, 0.5500, 0.5485
Resistance: 0.5527, 0.55328, 0.55447
What it said to watch
Hourly closes back above the 0.5527 ytd low would turn the push to the week low into a false break
A break of the lower-highs trendline and the 0.5545 ppi high would end the sequence of lower highs since Wednesday
Acceptance below the 0.5500 round number opens the 0.5470–0.5485 lower zone flagged in the macro read
Any rebound that stalls below the 38.2% retracement of the Tue–Fri decline (~0.5570) keeps the lower-high structure intact
Fed's Jefferson in ~90 min, Warsh on Monday and RBNZ inflation expectations on Tuesday could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the CPI break; EMA(20) capping rebounds.
H1 has printed lower highs and lower lows since the hot US CPI print knocked the pair off the 0.5650 week high, with price below both EMAs and the falling EMA(20) capping each rebound. The softer US PPI headline lifted the pair only to the post-PPI high at 0.5545 before a rejection there. The slide then extended through the 19m low at 0.5527 to a week low of 0.5521, with the larger legs coming in NY hours. RSI(14) at 36.4 has made a higher low against the lower price low (28.7 earlier Friday), a mild bullish divergence, while ATR is compressing into the weekly close.
Support: 0.55208, 0.5485
Resistance: 0.5527, 0.55341, 0.55447
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 19m low at 0.5527 would mark the break as a false break
A close above the 0.5545 ppi high would break the lower-highs trendline and the EMA(20) cap
Sustained trade below the 0.5521 week low exposes the next zone at 0.5470–0.5485
Fed's Jefferson in ~2h and the weekend gap risk could shift this read before Monday's Warsh remarks
Stepped lower highs and lows from Tuesday's 0.5650 top, now below the YTD low.
Each session since Tuesday's 0.5650 top has printed a lower high. The hot US CPI print drove the main leg, and NY hours on Wednesday and Thursday extended it. Today's slightly soft PPI headline lifted price briefly over EMA(20) to the 0.5545 ppi high, but the spike met rejection. NY then pushed back through the 0.5527 ytd low to a week low of 0.5522. Price sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) at 33.4, above its 28.7 trough from this morning despite the lower low, a mild bullish divergence.
Support: 0.55223, 0.5500
Resistance: 0.5527, 0.55349, 0.55447
What it said to watch
H1 closes back above the 0.5527 ytd low would mark today's break as a failed extension
A close above the 0.5545 ppi high breaks the lower highs sequence and opens a retest of the 38.2% fib near 0.5571
Failure to hold the 0.5522 week low exposes the 0.5500 round number
EMA(20) at 0.5535 has capped pullbacks since Wednesday; a sustained hold above it changes the read
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC and Chair Warsh on Monday could materially shift this read; weekend gap risk around the ytd low
Lower highs and lower lows since the CPI break; price below both EMAs.
NZDUSD has printed lower highs since the 0.5650 high early in the window, with the hot US CPI print driving the main leg lower during NY hours. Today's slightly soft PPI lifted the pair only briefly to 0.5545 (the ppi high), where it met rejection under the descending trendline. NY-session selling then took it below the 0.5527 19-month low to a 0.5523 week low, with price capped beneath a falling EMA(20) at 0.5536. RSI(14) at 35.1 made a higher low against that lower price low, a mild bullish divergence, and ATR(14) has expanded to 8 pips from 6.7 into the release.
Support: 0.55227, 0.5500
Resistance: 0.5527, 0.55361, 0.55447
What it said to watch
H1 closes back above the 0.5527 19m low would mark the break below it as a failed extension
A close above the ema20 at 0.5536 and the descending trendline near 0.5539 would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.5523 week low exposes the 0.5500 round number
Fed's Jefferson speech in ~5h, then the weekend into Warsh on Monday, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's peak, now probing below the ytd low.
The pair topped at 0.5650 in Tuesday's London session. The hot US CPI print flipped it lower, and it has since built a clean lower-high sequence below a falling EMA(20). The slightly soft US PPI produced a spike to the 0.5545 ppi high during NY hours, but supply capped it just above the EMA(20) and the pair slid to a fresh week low at 0.5523, below the 0.5527 ytd low. RSI(14) at 33.6 printed a higher trough than this morning's 28.7 on the lower price low, a mild bullish divergence, while ATR expanded to around 8.5 pips on the data.
Support: 0.55227, 0.5500
Resistance: 0.5527, 0.55372, 0.55447
What it said to watch
H1 closes back above the 0.5527 ytd low would mark the break below it as a false break
An H1 close above the 0.5545 ppi high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the lower-high sequence
Sustained trade below the 0.5523 week low exposes the 0.5500 round number
The RSI divergence is negated if the next lower low comes with RSI below 28.7
Fed's Jefferson in ~6h and Warsh on Monday could materially shift this read
Stair-step lower highs and lower lows from Tuesday's 0.5650 high; soft-PPI bounce faded below ema20.
The pair has carved lower highs since Tuesday's London-open peak near 0.5650. The hot US CPI print drove the main NY-session leg lower, and each subsequent bounce stalled beneath a falling ema20. Friday's soft-PPI pop to the 0.5545 ppi high was rejected at the ema20 (0.5539), and NY hours then pressed a new week low at 0.5523, slipping under the 0.5527 ytd low. RSI(14) at 33.9 sits above its 28.7 morning trough despite the lower price, a tentative bullish divergence, while ATR has expanded from 6.7 to 8.6 pips.
Support: 0.55227, 0.5500
Resistance: 0.5527, 0.55386, 0.55447
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.5527 ytd low would mark the break as a false break
Reclaim of ema20 (0.5539) and the 0.5545 ppi high breaks the lower-highs trendline and the week's sequence
Failure to hold the 0.5523 week low exposes the 0.5500 round number, then the 0.5470–0.5485 zone
38.2% of the week decline fib sits at 0.5571; a bounce stalling below it keeps the lower-high structure
Fed's Daly now and Jefferson in ~7h, then Warsh on Monday, could materially shift this read
16:02 UTC
Downtrend, ATR expanding at the lows · RSI 37 · price 0.55285
Lower highs each session since Tuesday's London high, fresh week low at 0.5527.
The pair has set lower highs every session since Tuesday's 0.5650 London high. The hot US CPI print started the slide, and NY hours drove the follow-through legs on Wednesday and Thursday as the Fed-RBNZ divergence kept the USD bid. Price sits below a falling EMA(20) at 0.5540 and EMA(50) at 0.5553. The softer PPI headline lifted it only to the 0.5545 PPI high before supply returned, and a fresh week low printed at the 0.5527 YTD low. RSI(14) at 36.8 holds above its 28.7 trough from earlier in the session despite the lower low, a mild bullish divergence, with ATR expanding to 8.6 pips.
Support: 0.55268, 0.5485
Resistance: 0.5540, 0.55447, 0.55529
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5527 YTD low extends the lower-low sequence and opens the 0.5470–0.5485 next zone
Reclaim of EMA(20) at 0.5540 and the 0.5545 PPI high breaks the lower-highs trendline and tests EMA(50) at 0.5553
Reclaim of the 38.2% retracement of the Tuesday-to-Friday drop near 0.5574 would negate the downtrend read
Fed's Daly at 17:00 UTC and Jefferson at 00:00 UTC could shift USD pricing into the weekly close
15:32 UTC
Downtrend, momentum easing at the lows · RSI 47 · price 0.55415
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's CPI break; first bounce off 0.5528.
The week's dominant move came in Tuesday's NY session, when the hot US CPI print broke the pair down from the 0.5650 high. It then ground lower through Wednesday, Thursday and Friday's Asian range, with each bounce capped below a falling EMA(50), as Fed–RBNZ divergence kept the USD bid. Friday's slightly soft US PPI headline (6.5% vs 6.6%) produced a wick to a fresh week low at 0.5528, just above the 0.5527 YTD low, and a close back above EMA(20) and the lower-highs line. RSI(14) recovered to 47.1 from 28.7 and printed a higher low against the lower price low, a bullish divergence, while ATR expanded from 6.7 to 8.1 pips.
Support: 0.55411, 0.5528
Resistance: 0.55475, 0.55539, 0.5570
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5528 week low (0.5527 YTD low) would confirm a fresh lower-low and void the divergence
Holding above ema20 and the lower-highs line keeps the bounce intact; Friday's asian high at 0.5547 is the first cap
H1 close above the ema50 at 0.5554 would break the lower-high sequence and bring the thu high at 0.5570 and the 38.2% fib of the CPI-led decline near 0.5574 into view
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) could materially shift this read if they lean toward a 50bp December hike
14:02 UTC
Downtrend, pace slowing near the lows · RSI 36 · price 0.55344
Lower highs and lower lows since the post-CPI break, compressing above the ytd low.
Lower highs have held since the hot US CPI print broke the pair off the 0.5650 week high. Every bounce has stalled below a falling ema20, with ema50 at 0.5554 also sloping down. The slightly soft headline PPI lifted price to 0.5543 in the first hour of NY, but the move met rejection at the ema20 and the lower-high line, and price fell back to 0.5533, just above the 0.5528 week low and the 0.5527 ytd low. RSI(14) has cycled in a 29–41 band without a sustained oversold reading, and ATR(14) has picked up to 7.5 pips off the PPI bar.
Support: 0.5527, 0.5485
Resistance: 0.5541, 0.5549, 0.5554
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5527 ytd low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5470–0.5485 next zone
H1 close above the 0.5549 lower high breaks the lower-high line and puts the ema50 at 0.5554 in play
Recovery through the 38.2% retracement of the week decline near 0.5574 would shift the read to a deeper correction
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) today could materially shift this read
13:02 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs each day · RSI 33 · price 0.5531
Lower-high sequence below EMA(20), pressing the 19-month low.
The week's dominant move came in Tuesday's NY session, when the hot US CPI print broke price from the 0.5650 high to 0.5586. Since then each day has printed a lower high: Wednesday near 0.5614, the Thu high at 0.5568, then Friday's sub-0.5550 caps. Price sits below a falling EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) pinned in the 29–41 band and ATR compressing from 8.4 to 7 pips as it presses the 19m low at 0.5527 ahead of US PPI.
Support: 0.5527, 0.5500, 0.5485
Resistance: 0.55418, 0.55552, 0.55678
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (28 min) could materially shift this read; the market_context digest frames a soft core print as the trigger for a relief bounce from the 19m low
H1 close below the 0.5527 19m low extends the lower-low sequence, with the round number at 0.5500 and the 0.5470–0.5485 next zone below
H1 close above ema20 at 0.5542 and the lower-high line breaks the Friday sequence
Reclaim of ema50 at 0.5555 and the Thu high at 0.5568 would put the Tue–Fri leg's 38.2% retracement near 0.5574 in play
Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) remarks after PPI add further USD risk into the NY session
12:02 UTC
Downtrend, pace slowing into week low · RSI 37 · price 0.55361
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's 0.5650 rejection; EMAs capping bounces.
NZDUSD has erased Monday's election bounce since the 0.5650 rejection early Tuesday. The hot US CPI print drove the impulse lower in Tuesday's NY session, and every session since has printed lower highs under a falling EMA(20) and EMA(50). Price is grinding into the week low at 0.5530, just above the 0.5527 YTD low, while ATR has compressed from 8.6 to 6.9 pips and RSI(14) has twice bottomed near 29 without extending, so the slide is losing pace into US PPI.
Support: 0.55295, 0.5527, 0.5500
Resistance: 0.55429, 0.5548, 0.55562
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (in ~90 min, headline f/c 6.6% y/y) could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 0.5527 ytd low extends the lower-low sequence; next reference is the 0.5500 round number
H1 close back above the ema20 and Friday's asian high near 0.5548 breaks the lower highs line
Reclaim of the ema50 at 0.5556 opens the 38.2% retracement of the weekly decline near 0.5575
Lower highs since Tuesday's 0.5650 peak; Thursday's 0.5538-0.5549 range giving way.
The pair has been sold steadily since the hot US CPI hit during Tuesday's NY session, which broke the post-election rally at 0.5650. A descending lower-high trendline has capped every bounce since, most recently the 0.5568 lower high on Thursday. Price sits below a falling EMA(20) at 0.5544 and EMA(50) at 0.5557. London has now pushed out of Thursday's tight 0.5538-0.5549 range to a fresh session low at 0.5531, just 4 pips above the 0.5527 YTD low, with RSI(14) oversold at 28.7 and ATR compressed to 6.9 pips.
Support: 0.55307, 0.5527, 0.5500
Resistance: 0.55436, 0.5557, 0.55678
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core y/y f/c 5%) could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 0.5527 ytd low extends the downtrend toward the 0.5500 psych level
Reclaim of the ema20 near 0.5544 and the 0.5548 range top would signal the session low is holding
Close above the 0.5568 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline sequence; ema50 at 0.5557 sits just below it
RSI(14) at 28.7 matches Thursday's low reading at a lower price, so a bullish divergence would only show if the 0.5531 session low holds into NY
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's CPI break; price below both EMAs.
The hot US CPI print in Tuesday's NY session broke the pair off the 0.5650 week high. That CPI leg has since built lower highs at 0.5614 and 0.5568, with price below both EMAs and EMA(20) capping every bounce since Thursday's NY session. London pressed a fresh week low at 0.5534 this morning, just above the 0.5527 YTD low, while RSI(14) at 33.2 holds above Thursday's 28.7 trough, a mild bullish divergence as ATR compresses to 6.8 pips.
Support: 0.55335, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55448, 0.55581, 0.55678
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~3.5h) could materially shift this read; core YoY f/c 5%, headline 6.6%
An H1 close below the 0.5527 YTD low extends the downtrend and voids the RSI divergence
H1 closes back above ema20 at 0.5545 would mark the first break of the bounce cap since Thursday
Recovery through ema50 at 0.5558 and the 0.5568 lower high would break the lower-high sequence and reach the 38.2% CPI leg fib near 0.5578
09:02 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into the lows · RSI 35 · price 0.55405
Lower highs since Tuesday, now a tight 0.5536–0.5549 base above the YTD low.
The hot US CPI print broke Tuesday's 0.5650 high during NY hours. Each NY session since has carved a lower high, at 0.5614 Wednesday and 0.5568 Thursday, with the lower-high sequence keeping price below a declining EMA(20) and EMA(50). Since Thursday's NY close the pair has compressed into a 13-pip band between the 0.5536 week low and the 0.5549 range top. ATR has eased from 8.6 to 6.7 pips, and RSI(14) shows a shallow bullish divergence: Friday's lower close came with RSI near 32.5 versus 28.7 on Thursday night.
Support: 0.55359, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55457, 0.55489, 0.55678
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~4.5h) could break the Asian range either way; core YoY f/c 5%
H1 close below the 0.5536 week low puts the 0.5527 YTD low in play
H1 close above the 0.5549 range top and ema20 ends the compression and tests the RSI divergence
Recovery through the 0.5568 lower high breaks this week's lower-high sequence
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's 0.5650 high; range compressing near week low.
The week's dominant leg came in Tuesday's NY session, when the hot US CPI print knocked the pair off the 0.5650 high. Thursday's NY hours then extended it through 0.5550, with every bounce since capped below a falling ema50. Friday's Asia session printed a fresh week low at 0.5536, but RSI(14) held 32.5 against Thursday's 28.7, a mild bullish divergence. ATR has also compressed from 8.6 to 6.9 pips as price grinds just under the ema20 at 0.5546 and the 0.5549 lower high.
Support: 0.55359, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55464, 0.5549, 0.55597
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hot core print fits a test of the 0.5527 ytd low
H1 close below the 0.5536 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the ytd low
H1 close above the 0.5549 lower high and ema20 breaks the lower-highs trendline and strengthens the RSI divergence read
Recovery through the ema50 at 0.5560 would put the 23.6% retracement of the week's decline near 0.5563 in play
Lower highs since Tuesday, tight Asian range under ema20.
NZDUSD has printed lower highs since Tuesday's 0.5650 peak. The hotter US CPI print at Tuesday's NY open triggered the slide, and Thursday's NY session pushed it on to 0.5540, with the lower-highs line from 0.5614 and 0.5568 tracking the descent. Friday's Asia session has compressed into a 0.5536–0.5548 range just under the ema20, with ATR easing to 6.8 pips. RSI(14) at 36.5 holds above Thursday's 28.7 trough despite the new week low at 0.5536, a bullish divergence, while the ema50 at 0.5561 and the 0.5568 Thursday high cap the sequence.
Support: 0.55359, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55473, 0.55606, 0.55678
What it said to watch
US October PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read
H1 close back above the ema20 at 0.5547 breaks the Asian range to the upside; a hold above the ema50 at 0.5561 would challenge the lower-highs structure
A break of the 0.5536 week low exposes the 0.5527 ytd low and voids the RSI divergence
Fed speakers Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) during NY hours
NZDUSD has printed lower highs since the 0.5650 week high on Tuesday. The hotter US CPI in Tuesday's NY session triggered the break, and Thursday's NY session pressed the pair to the 0.5538 week low after the London bounce stalled at the 0.5568 Thursday high. Price sits below a falling EMA(20) at 0.5548 and EMA(50) at 0.5561, while Friday's Asian range has compressed to about 10 pips above the week low and ATR has eased to 6.8 pips. RSI(14) bottomed at 28.7 on Thursday and held higher on the retests of 0.5538, a mild bullish divergence.
Support: 0.5538, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55479, 0.55678, 0.5600
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5538 week low resumes the lower-low sequence, with the 0.5527 ytd low next
Recovery above the ema20 at 0.5548 breaks the Asian range cap; the 0.5568 thu high is the last lower high in the downtrend
US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a soft print brings the 38.2% fib of the Tue high–Fri low drop (0.5581) and the 0.5600 psych level into view
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) after PPI add USD event risk into the NY session
Lower highs from Tuesday peak, compressing above week low.
Lower highs have stacked up since Tuesday's 0.5650 London-open peak. Tuesday's hot US CPI print drove a 60-pip NY-session drop, and Thursday's NY session extended the slide toward a 0.5538 week low printed in Asia, with Fed-RBNZ divergence keeping NZD heavy. Price sits below a falling EMA(20) at 0.5549 and EMA(50) at 0.5562, while RSI(14) at 38.6 has lifted off a 28.7 trough even as price printed the lower low, a mild bullish divergence, and ATR has compressed to 6.9 pips just above the 0.5527 YTD low.
Support: 0.5538, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55486, 0.55622, 0.55678
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~8.5h), then Bowman and Daly, could materially shift this read
H1 close above the ema20 near 0.5549 and the lower highs line breaks the descending sequence
Recovery through ema50 at 0.5562 puts the 0.5568 Thursday high (thu high) back in focus
Failure to hold the 0.5538 week low exposes the 0.5527 ytd low; a break there confirms a fresh lower low
Fib of the week drop: 38.2% near 0.5581 is the first retracement marker if the divergence plays out
The hot US CPI print reversed Monday's election bounce from the 0.5650 week high, and the pair has printed lower highs at 0.5614 Wednesday and 0.5568 Thursday as Fed-RBNZ divergence and a firm USD drove the decline. Thursday's NY session pushed to a 0.5538 week low early in Asia, just above the 0.5527 ytd low. Price is basing below a falling EMA(20) at 0.5549 and EMA(50) at 0.5563 while ATR(14) compresses to 7 pips, and RSI(14) has lifted to 41 from 28.7, a shallow bullish divergence against the marginal lower low.
Support: 0.5538, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55491, 0.5563, 0.55678
What it said to watch
US October PPI at 13:30 UTC today could materially shift this read; Fed's Bowman and Daly follow later in the NY session
H1 close below the 0.5538 week low exposes the 0.5527 ytd low, and failure to hold there confirms a fresh lower-low
Sustained H1 closes above the ema20 at 0.5549 would mark the first reclaim since Thursday's NY session
A break of the 0.5568 lower high, through the ema50 and the 23.6% retracement of the week's decline near 0.5564, invalidates the lower-high sequence
Lower highs since the 0.5650 peak; basing 0.5538-0.5548.
The early-week rally topped near 0.5650 before the hot US CPI print turned it into a post-CPI selloff of lower highs, which yesterday's NY session extended to a 0.5538 week low on broad USD strength. Price sits below both the EMA(20) at 0.5550 and the EMA(50) at 0.5564, though RSI(14) has made a higher low near 31 against that lower price low. That bullish divergence comes with ATR(14) compressing to 7.3 pips through the Asia session, and the 0.5527 YTD low sits just beneath.
Support: 0.5538, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55495, 0.55637, 0.5600
What it said to watch
H1 close above the ema20 and the lower-highs trendline near 0.5548 would challenge the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 0.5538 week low puts the 0.5527 ytd low in play
US PPI at 13:30 UTC today (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read
Any rebound toward the ema50 at 0.5564 or the 0.5600 round number would test the post-CPI selloff structure
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's 0.5650 top.
The hot US CPI print reversed the post-election rally from Tuesday's 0.5650 high. Lower highs followed at 0.5614 and 0.5568, with NY sessions driving each leg lower, and price stays below a steadily falling EMA(20) at 0.5550. A fresh week low at 0.5538 in today's Asian session sits 11 pips above the 0.5527 ytd low, yet RSI(14) at 37.4 has held above Thursday's 25.8 trough despite the lower price low, a bullish divergence while ATR eases back to 7.6 pips.
Support: 0.5538, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55499, 0.55678, 0.5600
What it said to watch
H1 close above the ema20 at 0.5550 and then the 0.5568 lower high would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.5538 week low exposes the 0.5527 ytd low
A move through the 23.6% level of the CPI selloff fib near 0.5564 shifts focus to the 0.5600 round number
US PPI at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers Bowman and Daly later today could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Tuesday's 0.5650 top, pressing week low.
NZDUSD has been in a downtrend since Tuesday's 0.5650 week high. The hot US CPI print in that NY session started the selloff, and each rebound since has been capped below a falling line of lower highs: 0.5614 on Wednesday, 0.5568 in Thursday's London session and 0.5566 into Thursday's NY session. Price sits below a declining ema20 (0.5551) and ema50 (0.5565) and is pressing a fresh week low at 0.5538 in the Asia session, about 11 pips above the 0.5527 ytd low. Closes have edged lower while RSI(14) at 30.6 holds above Thursday's 25.8 reading, and ATR has eased to 7.4 pips, which points to slowing downside momentum rather than a confirmed turn.
Support: 0.5538, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55506, 0.55653, 0.5600
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5527 ytd low extends the lower-low sequence into fresh 18-month lows
Close back above the ema20 and the lower-highs line near 0.5550 would mark the first break in the selloff structure
Recovery through the ema50 and Thursday's 0.5568 high exposes the 38.2% selloff fib near 0.5581 and the 0.5600 round number
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, followed by Bowman and Daly, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's 0.5650 week high.
The week's drop from Tuesday's 0.5650 London high turned on the hot US CPI print in NY hours, and each rebound since has stalled at a lower high (0.5614, then 0.5568) as Fed hike pricing kept USD firm. Price trades below a falling EMA(20) at 0.5552 and EMA(50) at 0.5566, with Thursday's NY session printing a fresh week low near 0.5539, 12 pips above the 0.5527 YTD low. RSI(14) lows have risen from about 26 to 31 while closes slipped lower, a bullish divergence, and ATR has eased to 7.4 pips from 8.6.
Support: 0.55386, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55517, 0.55678, 0.5600
What it said to watch
H1 close above the ema20 at 0.5552 and the lower-highs trendline breaks the sequence of lower highs
Reclaim of the 0.5568 lower high would retrace roughly a quarter of the week's drop and put the 0.5600 round number in view
Failure to hold the 0.5539 week low exposes the 0.5527 ytd low
US PPI at 13:30 UTC today, followed by Bowman and Daly, could materially shift this read