NZD/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Friday, 2 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the NZD/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
20:47 UTC
Flat after the NFP spike round-tripped · RSI 58 · price 0.56151
Late-NY higher lows inside the 0.5606–0.5631 post-NFP range.
The 29K NFP miss spiked NZD to the 0.5643 nfp high at 12:30 UTC. Supply capped it straight away, and the full nfp spike was retraced to the 0.5606 nfp low by late NY. Price has since printed shallow higher lows along a rising support line, up to the 0.5618 late ny high, and sits at 0.5615 near flat EMAs into the Friday close with ATR compressed to about 3 pips.
Support: 0.56062, 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.56177, 0.5631, 0.56427
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5606 nfp low reopens the 0.5600 psych level and then the 0.5586 asia low
An M15 close above the 0.5618 late ny high puts the 0.5631 nfp range hi back in play
A break of rising support from the late-NY lows would end the higher-low sequence
Weekend gap risk into the Monday open; NZIER QSBO Mon 21:00 UTC and US ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC could shift this read
Rising lows off 0.5606 swing low, capped near 0.5618 below post-NFP range.
The 12:30 UTC NFP miss spiked NZDUSD to 0.5643 (nfp high), but the move was rejected and price slid back to the 0.5606 swing low, where buyers stepped in for a second time today. Late NY hours are printing rising lows into the 0.5618 late ny high, between the 23.6% and 38.2% of the nfp spike fib, with RSI(14) mid-range near 59.
Support: 0.5606, 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.5618, 0.5631, 0.5643
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5618 late ny high opens the 38.2% of the nfp spike fib near 0.5620 and the 0.5631 post-NFP range top
Break of the late-NY rising lows trendline and the 0.5606 swing low puts 0.5600 psych and the 0.5586 asia low back in focus
Friday close leaves weekend gap risk; NZIER QSBO (Mon 21:00 UTC) and US ISM Services (Mon 14:00 UTC) are the next catalysts
20:17 UTC
Range after rejected NFP spike, mild late-NY recovery · RSI 58 · price 0.56155
NFP spike high rejected; rising lows off 0.5606 base, capped near 0.5618.
Asia slipped through 0.5600 to a 0.5586 Asian low before recovering. The US payrolls miss spiked price to a 0.5643 NFP high in the NY session, but it was rejected and faded to a 0.5606 post-NFP low. Late NY has built rising lows back to the 0.5618 late NY high into the Friday close, with RSI(14) near 58 and price pinned just above both EMAs.
Support: 0.56062, 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.56177, 0.56237, 0.56427
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5618 late NY high opens the 0.5620 38.2% retrace of the NFP spike and the 0.5624 London high
Break of the rising lows trendline, then loss of the 0.5606 post-NFP low, exposes 0.5600 psych and the 0.5586 Asian low
Retest of the 0.5643 NFP high needed to negate the spike rejection read
Weekend gap risk; US ISM Services (Mon 14:00 UTC) and NZIER QSBO (Mon 21:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Post-NFP spike rejected; higher lows building off 0.5606 NY low.
The US payrolls miss (29K vs 90K) spiked NZDUSD to the 0.5643 nfp spike high. Supply capped it straight away, and NY faded the nfp range to the 0.5606 ny low, matching the London dip for a double bottom. Late-NY bars are now stacking higher lows along a rising trendline toward the 0.5624 london high, with about a third of the NFP spike fib retraced.
Support: 0.5606, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.5624, 0.5631, 0.5643
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5624 london high reopens the 0.5631 nfp range top
Break of the rising trendline and failure to hold the 0.5606 ny low exposes 0.5600 psych and the 0.5586 asia low
Friday close is near: Monday's NZIER QSBO (21:00 UTC) and US ISM Services (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 0.5606 NY low, capped below 0.5624 London high.
Asia swept below the 0.5600 psych level to the 0.5586 asia low, then recovered. The US payroll miss (29K vs 90K) spiked the pair to the 0.5643 nfp high, but that move met rejection and was fully retraced to the 0.5606 ny low, which matches the London-session floor. Late NY is printing higher lows along a rising trendline and is retesting the 38.2% fib of the NFP drop near 0.5620, just under the 0.5624 london high.
Support: 0.56062, 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.56237, 0.5631, 0.56427
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5624 london high clears the 38.2% fib and exposes the 0.5631 lower high
Loss of the rising trendline and the 0.5606 ny low puts the 0.5600 psych level and the 0.5586 asia low back in focus
Friday close with thin late-NY liquidity; NZIER QSBO (Mon 21:00 UTC) is the next NZD-specific risk and could set the open
19:17 UTC
Post-NFP spike fully faded, flat late NY · RSI 53 · price 0.56141
Back inside the 0.5606–0.5624 London range.
The US payrolls miss spiked the pair to 0.5643 at the 12:30 UTC release. Supply capped the 0.5631 NFP shelf, and the move unwound through NY, putting price back inside the pre-data range below the 0.5624 London high. Late NY is quiet near 0.5614 after the 0.5606 swing low held twice. RSI(14) is neutral near 53.
Support: 0.5606, 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.5624, 0.5631, 0.56427
What it said to watch
Break below the 0.5606 swing low exposes 0.5600 psych and the 0.5586 Asian low
M15 close above the 0.5624 London high (near the 50% fib of the NFP spike) reopens the 0.5631 NFP shelf
Friday close into thin liquidity; ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC and NZ QSBO Mon 21:00 UTC could reset this read
19:05 UTC
Post-NFP spike unwound, flat in late NY · RSI 46 · price 0.56115
Tight range 0.5606–0.5613 after lower highs from 0.5631.
The NFP-miss spike to 0.5643 failed above the London high, and the late-NY slide from 0.5631 has retraced roughly 85% of the NFP spike fib, putting price back near its pre-release level. Price is now compressing between the 0.5606 session low and the 0.5613 range top, with RSI(14) neutral near 46 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 0.5606, 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.5613, 0.5624, 0.5631
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5606 session low exposes 0.5600 psych, then the 0.5586 asian low
Close above the 0.5613 range top reopens the 0.5624 london high and the 0.5631 post-nfp hi
Full retrace of the NFP spike fib below 0.5606 would erase the payroll reaction
Weekend close in ~2h; NZIER QSBO and US ISM Services on Monday could reset this read
The US payrolls miss (29K vs 90K) spiked NZD to the 0.5643 NFP high, clearing the 0.5624 London high, but the post-NFP top at 0.5631 gave way after London close. Price is now back at 0.5612, near the pre-release level, and lower highs are capping each bounce. The 0.5606 swing low has held three times since mid-London, with RSI(14) near 42 and late NY trade quiet.
Support: 0.5606, 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.56237, 0.5631, 0.56427
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5606 swing low exposes 0.5600 psych and the 0.5586 asian low
Break of the lower-highs line and a close back above the 0.5624 london high negates the unwind read
Reclaiming the 0.5631 post-nfp top puts the 0.5643 nfp high back in focus
No scheduled data before the weekend close; NZIER QSBO Mon 21:00 UTC is the next NZD event risk
Lower highs off the NFP spike, compressing above the session low.
The US payrolls miss (29K vs 90K) spiked NZDUSD through the 0.5624 london high to 0.5643. NY hours then faded the whole move back to the 61.8% fib of the asian low to nfp high leg. Late NY is now compressing between the 0.5606 session low and the 0.5613 minor high, with 0.5600 psych and the 0.5586 asian low beneath.
Support: 0.5606, 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.5613, 0.5624, 0.5643
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5606 session low exposes 0.5600 psych and the 0.5586 asian low
Reclaim of the 0.5613 minor high, then the 0.5624 london high, would neutralise the NFP fade read
The nfp high at 0.5643 marks the post-data rejection ceiling
Friday close into the weekend; NZIER QSBO (Mon 21:00 UTC) and US ISM Services (Mon 14:00 UTC) could reset this read
Post-NFP rejection back to the pre-NFP base; tight 0.5606–0.5613 compression late in the NY session.
The US payrolls miss (29K vs 90K) spiked the pair to 0.5643 at 12:30 UTC. The move was fully rejected, and price has slid back to the pre-NFP base near 0.5610, under ema20. Late NY session is compressing just above the 0.5606 session low, which has been tested three times and sits at the 61.8% of the Asia-to-NFP fib.
Support: 0.5606, 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.5613, 0.5618, 0.5631
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5606 session low exposes the 0.5600 psych level, then the 0.5586 Asian low
Reclaim of ema20 at 0.5613 and the 0.5618 pre-NFP high would ease the fade read; the 0.5631 post-NFP top sits above
Friday close in ~3h brings thin liquidity and weekend gap risk; US ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC is the next major USD driver
Lower highs from 0.5631 into a double low at 0.5606, late NY.
The US payrolls miss (29K vs 90K) spiked NZDUSD to a 0.5643 spike high, but the push through the 0.5624 london high did not hold. Price held a 0.5619–0.5631 nfp range until mid-NY, then slid along a descending line of lower highs back to the pre-NFP base. That base is a double low at 0.5606, matching the late-London trough, and price is pinned there late in NY after London close.
Support: 0.5606, 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.5624, 0.5631, 0.5643
What it said to watch
A close above the descending line near 0.5613 and back over the 0.5624 london high eases the lower-high sequence
A break of the 0.5606 double low exposes the 0.5600 round number and the 0.5586 asian low
Reclaiming the 0.5631 nfp range top would revive a test of the 0.5643 spike high
Friday close; weekend headline gap risk, then US ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could reprice the post-NFP USD move
Lower highs through NY session, back at London lows.
The NFP spike to the 0.5643 nfp high on the US jobs miss could not hold above the 0.5624 london high and has been fully unwound, consistent with the digest's read of muted, USD-driven relief. NY hours have printed lower highs along a descending line back to the 0.5606 london low after London close, with RSI(14) near 37 and the 0.5600 psych level just below.
Support: 0.5606, 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.5613, 0.5624, 0.5643
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5606 london low exposes 0.5600 psych and the 0.5586 asian low
Close above the 0.5613 lower high and the descending line breaks the NY lower-high sequence
Thin Friday close into the weekend; ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC is the next major USD risk
Lower highs from 0.5631, holding above London low and 61.8% fib.
The US payrolls miss spiked NZDUSD to 0.5643, but the move was rejected and the pair has given back the whole gain, slipping from the 0.5631 NFP range high on a chain of lower highs. Late NY, after London close, price sits at 0.5611. The London low at 0.5606, which lines up with the 61.8% fib of the 0.5586–0.5643 leg, has held twice this afternoon.
Support: 0.56065, 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.5624, 0.5631
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5606 London low and 61.8% fib exposes 0.5600 psych, then the 0.5586 Asia low
Break above the lower-highs trendline and the 0.5624 London high would neutralise the post-NFP fade
US ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) and NZ QSBO Mon 21:00 UTC could materially shift this read after the weekend gap
17:05 UTC
Intraday downswing after a failed NFP spike · RSI 41 · price 0.56106
Lower highs since the 0.5631 NY high, now testing the pre-NFP low.
The Asian dip to the 0.5586 asian low reversed. The NFP miss then spiked price to the 0.5643 nfp high, but that move was fully faded through a lower-high trendline from the 0.5631 ny high. Price now sits on the 0.5606 pre-nfp low, in line with the 61.8% fib of the Asia-to-NFP rally, with RSI(14) near 41 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 0.56058, 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.5619, 0.5631, 0.56427
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5606 pre-nfp low exposes 0.5600 psych and then the 0.5586 asian low
Close above the lower-high trendline and back over the 0.5619 ny range low would neutralise the post-NFP fade
Late-Friday NY liquidity is thin; NZIER QSBO (Mon 21:00 UTC) and US ISM Services (Mon 14:00 UTC) are the next catalysts
16:32 UTC
Post-NFP fade, short-term down · RSI 39 · price 0.56084
Lower highs from 0.5631, back at pre-NFP base.
The 29K NFP miss spiked the pair to the 0.5643 nfp spike high, but the break above the 0.5624 London high failed. Lower highs from the 0.5631 post-NFP high have since faded the whole move back to the 0.5606 London low in late NY. Price now sits on the 61.8% fib of the Asian low-to-NFP rally, with RSI(14) near 39 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 0.5606, 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.5624, 0.5631, 0.5643
What it said to watch
A close below the 0.5606 London low exposes the 0.5600 psych handle and then the 0.5586 Asian low
A recovery above the 0.5624 London high reopens the 0.5631 post-NFP high and negates the fade read
Thin liquidity into the Friday weekly close; ISM Services on Mon Oct 5 is the next major USD risk
Lower highs since the 0.5631 post-NFP top, back at the pre-release base.
The 29K NFP miss spiked NZD to the 0.5643 nfp high, but sellers capped the post-NFP top at 0.5631. The gain bled out after London close, and price is back at the 0.5610 pre-release base, between the 50% and 61.8% of the Asian low-to-NFP fib leg. RSI(14) is near 36 with price under both EMAs. The London low at 0.5606 sits just below, and the London high at 0.5624 is now overhead.
Support: 0.5606, 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.5624, 0.5631, 0.5643
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5606 london low exposes the 0.5600 psych and the 0.5586 asian low
Recovery above the 0.5624 london high puts the 0.5631 post-nfp top back in play; the 0.5643 nfp high marks the false break
Friday late NY into the weekly close; liquidity thins and no scheduled data in the next 8h
A daily close relative to the 0.5600 psych handle frames whether the post-NFP rebound attempt has failed
Post-NFP range broken lower, back at pre-release levels.
The NFP miss (29K vs 90K) spiked NZD to the nfp high at 0.5643, a false break above the 0.5624 London high that was rejected on the same bar. The pair then held a 0.5619–0.5631 range before the range floor gave way into London close. Price at 0.5611 has retraced about 85% of the nfp spike, with the London low at 0.5606 next below.
Support: 0.56057, 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.56193, 0.5631, 0.56427
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5606 london low completes a full unwind of the nfp spike and exposes the 0.5600 psych handle
Loss of 0.5600 puts the 0.5586 asia low back in play into the Friday weekly close
Reclaim of the 0.5619 range floor revives the post-NFP range read toward the 0.5631 range top
ISM Services PMI Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) is the next scheduled USD driver
15:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend from Asia low, fading post-NFP · RSI 46 · price 0.5615
NFP spike rejected; lower highs through NY, retracing into the 50–61.8% zone.
The 29K NFP miss spiked NZDUSD to an nfp high at 0.5643, but the move was rejected within the bar. NY then held a 0.5619–0.5631 range before slipping back under the 0.5624 london high, a false break of the London high. Price at 0.5615 sits on the 50% of the Asia-NFP fib, with the 61.8% near 0.5610 aligning with the 0.5611 session low.
Support: 0.5611, 0.5606, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5624, 0.5631, 0.5643
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5611 session low and 61.8% fib exposes the 0.5606 pre-nfp low and the 0.5600 psych level
Recovery above the 0.5624 london high puts the 0.5631 range top back in play; the 0.5643 nfp high marks the spike extreme
Weekly close: holding vs losing the 0.5600 psych handle into Friday's close frames the next leg
ISM Services Mon (f/c 55.7) is the next USD event risk after the NFP repricing
15:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend from Asian low, NFP gains fading · RSI 48 · price 0.56166
Post-NFP range broken lower; higher-low chain from 0.5586 intact.
The 29K NFP miss spiked NZDUSD to an nfp high at 0.5643 that was rejected within the bar. NY has since slipped out of the 0.5619–0.5631 post-NFP range, losing the nfp floor and the 38.2% fib, and price now sits on rising support from the 0.5586 asian low with the london low at 0.5606 near the 61.8% retracement.
Support: 0.5606, 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.5619, 0.5631, 0.5643
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5619 nfp floor puts price back inside the post-NFP range, with the 0.5631 range top as the cap
Close below the 0.5606 london low and 61.8% fib breaks the higher-low chain on rising support; the 0.5600 round number is next
Reclaim of the 0.5643 nfp high would negate the spike rejection
Liquidity thins after London close into the Friday NY afternoon, with no scheduled data in the next 8h
Post-NFP range 0.5619–0.5631 above a rising higher-low trendline.
The NFP miss (29K vs 90K) spiked NZDUSD to the 0.5643 nfp high at 12:30 GMT. The spike was rejected inside the bar, and price has since held a 0.5619–0.5631 range in NY hours. The range floor sits at the 61.8% fib of the 0.5606–0.5643 leg, and the latest bar is drifting back toward it.
Support: 0.5619, 0.56057, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.5631, 0.56427
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5619 range floor and 61.8% fib exposes the 0.5606 london low and the rising trendline
Close above the 0.5631 range top reopens the 0.5643 nfp high
Loss of the higher-low trendline would bring the 0.5586 asian low back into view
Friday weekly close around the 0.5600 handle could add late-session swings
Higher lows from Asian low; tight post-NFP band 0.5619–0.5631.
The US payrolls miss (29K vs 90K) spiked the pair to 0.5643 on the release, but the move was rejected almost immediately. Trade has since compressed into a 0.5619–0.5631 band, with the post-NFP low sitting on the 38.2% retracement of the Asia low-to-spike move. The higher-low sequence from the 0.5586 Asia low through the 0.5606 London low remains intact.
Support: 0.5619, 0.5606, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.5631, 0.5643, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5619 post-NFP low exposes the 0.5606 London low and the rising trendline from the Asia low
Close above the 0.5631 post-NFP high reopens the 0.5643 NFP spike, with the 0.5650 former floor above
Break of the trendline from the Asia low would end the session's higher-low chain
Thinning liquidity after London close into the Friday weekly close may extend wicks around range edges
14:32 UTC
Uptrend off Asian low, consolidating post-NFP · RSI 64 · price 0.56269
Higher lows since 0.5586; tight NY range above London high.
The soft NFP print (29K vs 90K) spiked the pair to the 0.5643 nfp spike high at 12:30 UTC. The wick faded, but the NY session has held a 0.5619–0.5631 band. That band sits above the 0.5624 London high and the 0.5615 asian high. The higher-low chain from the 0.5586 Asian low, through the 0.5606 london low and the 0.5619 post-nfp low, remains intact along the rising trendline. RSI(14) is near 64.
Support: 0.56188, 0.56149, 0.56058
Resistance: 0.5631, 0.56427, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5619 post-nfp low and back under the 0.5615 asian high returns the 0.5606 london low to focus
Close above the 0.5631 range top reopens the 0.5643 nfp spike high, with the 0.5650 former floor just beyond
Break of the rising trendline from 0.5586 ends the higher-low sequence
Friday weekly close into thinning NY liquidity could distort the late-session range
HH/HL chain from Asia low; post-NFP range 0.5619–0.5630.
The NFP miss (29K vs 90K) lifted NZD/USD through the 0.5624 london high to a 0.5643 nfp spike hi that was rejected within the bar. NY trade has since compressed between the 0.5619 nfp range lo, which sits on the 61.8% of the NFP leg fib, and the 0.5630 nfp range hi. The higher-low chain from the 0.5586 Asia low holds along the rising trendline.
Support: 0.5624, 0.5619, 0.5606
Resistance: 0.5630, 0.5643, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5630 nfp range hi reopens the 0.5643 nfp spike hi, with the 0.5650 former floor above
Close below 0.5619 nfp range lo breaks the 61.8% hold and exposes the 0.5606 pre-nfp low and the rising trendline
Loss of the 0.5624 london high as a pivot puts price back inside the pre-NFP range
US yield moves into the Friday close remain the driver after the NFP miss
14:04 UTC
Uptrend from Asian low, post-NFP spike faded · RSI 59 · price 0.56231
Higher lows since 0.5586, NFP spike rejected, compressing 0.5619–0.5630.
The NFP miss (29K vs 90K) sent price through the London high to the 0.5643 nfp spike high, which was rejected inside the same bar. Since then price has rotated between the 0.5619 post-NFP low and the 0.5630 post-NFP high, holding the 38.2% of the Asian low–NFP high fib. The trendline from the Asian low and its higher-low chain through the 0.5606 swing low remain intact, with RSI(14) near 59.
Support: 0.56188, 0.56057
Resistance: 0.56303, 0.56427
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5619 post-NFP low breaks the 38.2% fib hold and exposes the 0.5606 swing low
Close above the 0.5630 post-NFP high reopens the 0.5643 NFP spike high
Break of the Asian-low trendline would end the higher-low chain
US Factory Orders at 14:00 GMT and the Friday weekly close could shift this read
Higher lows from 0.5586 Asia low; 0.5619–0.5630 post-NFP band.
The NFP miss (29K vs 90K) pushed NZDUSD through the 0.5624 London high to a 0.5643 spike high, which was quickly rejected. Since then NY has held a 0.5619–0.5630 band, just above the 38.2% fib of the Asia low–spike high move. The higher-low chain from the 0.5586 Asia low and the 0.5606 London low is intact.
Support: 0.56188, 0.56057, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.56303, 0.56427
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.5630 post-NFP high reopens the 0.5643 spike high
A break of the 0.5619 NFP low exposes the 0.5606 London low and the rising trendline
Losing the 0.5586 Asia low would unwind the day's recovery structure
US Factory Orders at 14:00 GMT could extend post-NFP volatility
13:32 UTC
Uptrend from Asian low, post-NFP spike faded · RSI 66 · price 0.56273
Higher lows since Asia; NFP breakout above London high, holding retest.
The NFP miss (29K vs 90K, wages 0.1%) spiked NZDUSD from 0.5618 to a 0.5643 spike high in the first NY bar, clearing the 0.5624 London high before most of the move faded. Buyers held the 0.5619 post-nfp low, near the 61.8% of the swing low-to-spike move. Price is back at 0.5627, between the London high and a 0.5630 lower high, with the Asia-session higher-low chain from 0.5586 intact.
Support: 0.56237, 0.56188, 0.56057
Resistance: 0.56303, 0.56427
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5619 post-nfp low drops price back inside the pre-NFP range toward the 0.5606 swing low
Close above the 0.5630 lower high reopens the 0.5643 spike high
US Factory Orders at 14:00 UTC could extend post-NFP volatility (ATR ~7 pips, spike bar 25 pips)
Break of the rising trendline from the Asian low ends the higher-low sequence
Higher lows from Asian low; NFP high rejected, price back at London high.
The broad US jobs miss (29K vs 90K) spiked NZDUSD to a 0.5643 nfp spike high, but the bar closed near 0.5622 and the next swing stalled at a lower high of 0.5630. In the first hour of NY, price sits at the London high around 0.5624. The post-nfp low at 0.5619 is holding, with the higher-low chain from the 0.5586 Asian low to the 0.5606 London low intact.
Support: 0.56188, 0.56149, 0.56057
Resistance: 0.56237, 0.56303, 0.56427
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5619 post-nfp low puts the Asian high at 0.5615 back in play
Break of the higher-low trendline and the 0.5606 London low ends the intraday uptrend read
Close above the 0.5630 lower high reopens the 0.5643 nfp spike high
US Factory Orders at 14:00 UTC could add volatility to post-NFP price action
Higher lows from Asia low; London range broken upward, spike partly rejected.
The broad NFP miss (29K vs 90K, wages 0.1%) lifted NZDUSD out of the 0.5606–0.5624 London range in the first hour of NY. Price spiked to the 0.5643 nfp spike high before a sharp rejection, and now holds just above the london high near 0.5627. Higher lows since the 0.5586 Asia low define rising support. RSI(14) at 66 is firm but not stretched, and ATR has expanded to about 6 pips.
Support: 0.56237, 0.56186, 0.56057
Resistance: 0.56297, 0.56427, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the london high at 0.5624 returns price to the prior range and exposes the nfp bar low at 0.5618
Close above the post-nfp hi at 0.5630 reopens the 0.5643 nfp spike high and the 0.5650 former floor
Break of the london low at 0.5606 and the rising support line undercuts the higher-low sequence and the 50–61.8% retrace of the Asia low–NFP spike leg
US Factory Orders at 14:00 UTC is secondary risk after NFP but can extend post-release volatility
12:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend from Asian low, payrolls spike faded · RSI 58 · price 0.56216
Higher lows since 0.5586; false break above London high.
The 12:30 GMT payrolls release spiked NZDUSD to the 0.5643 nfp high, but the move was faded within the bar. The long upper wick closed back under the 0.5624 london high, and price now sits near the 38.2% fib of the rally from the Asian low. Below sit the higher-low chain from the 0.5586 Asian low, the rising trendline, the 0.5615 asian high and the 0.5606 london low.
Support: 0.56149, 0.56057, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56237, 0.56427
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5624 london high reopens the 0.5643 nfp high
Break below the 0.5615 asian high (50% fib) brings the 0.5606 london low and the rising trendline into play
Loss of the 0.5600 psych handle on a closing basis breaks the higher-low sequence
US Factory Orders at 14:00 GMT and post-payrolls yield moves could extend first-hour NY volatility
12:32 UTC
Uptrend from Asia low, NFP spike faded off highs · RSI 63 · price 0.56276
Higher lows since 0.5586; NFP bar broke the London high, upper wick ~15 pips.
The US payrolls release at the NY open drove a 24-pip spike through the London high at 0.5624 and the prior high near 0.5618, with the nfp high printing at 0.5643 before price gave back about 15 pips. The higher-low chain from the 0.5586 Asia low stays intact above the London low at 0.5606, which also sits near the 61.8% fib of the move.
Support: 0.56237, 0.56183, 0.56057
Resistance: 0.56427, 0.5650
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the London high at 0.5624 would turn the NFP breakout into a failed break toward the prior high at 0.5618
A close below the London low at 0.5606 breaks the Asia-low trendline and the higher-low structure
Acceptance above the nfp high at 0.5643 brings the 0.5650 round number, the digest's former floor, into play
US Factory Orders at 14:00 GMT and the follow-through in US yields after payrolls could reshape this bar's range
12:17 UTC
Intraday range after Asia rebound, momentum fading · RSI 41 · price 0.56099
Lower highs from London high 0.5624, double low at 0.5606.
The Asia session rebound from the 0.5586 asian low met rejection at the 0.5624 london high. Since then lower highs (latest 0.5616) and a double london low at 0.5606 have pinned price near the 38.2% retrace of that leg. ATR is about 4 pips, the range is compressed and price sits just under both EMAs ahead of US payrolls at 12:30 GMT.
Support: 0.56057, 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.5616, 0.56237
What it said to watch
US September NFP at 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3%) is likely to break the 0.5606–0.5624 range and reset this read
An M15 close below the 0.5606 london low exposes the 0.5600 psych handle and the 50–61.8% fib zone at 0.5605–0.5600
Failure to hold 0.5600 on a closing basis reopens the 0.5586 asian low
An M15 close above the 0.5616 lower high puts the 0.5624 london high back in play
12:03 UTC
Recovering intraday, higher lows from Asia low · RSI 53 · price 0.56145
Higher low at 0.5606 after rejection at 0.5624; mid-range consolidation.
Asia dipped to the 0.5586 session low under the 0.5600 psych before recovering. London briefly cleared the 0.5620 asian high and was rejected at the 0.5624 london high. The pullback held the 0.5606 swing low near the 50% fib, extending the higher lows, and price sits mid-range at 0.5614 into US payrolls with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 0.56058, 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.5620, 0.56237
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3%) is likely to break the 0.5606–0.5624 consolidation
M15 close above the 0.5624 london high clears the asian high cap and the 0.5625 former support
Failure to hold the 0.5606 swing low breaks the higher lows and exposes the 0.5600 psych, then the 0.5586 session low
11:47 UTC
Range after Asia rally, momentum flat · RSI 47 · price 0.56127
London false break above Asian high, holding a higher low at 0.5606.
London briefly broke the 0.5620 asian high to 0.5624, then slipped back inside. That false break returned price to the 0.5606 london low, which held twice near the 50% retrace of the 0.5586–0.5624 asia rally. Price is now mid-range at 0.5613, sitting on the EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral near 47, as the market waits on US payrolls after USD eased from its yearly high.
Support: 0.56058, 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.5620, 0.56237
What it said to watch
US September payrolls at 12:30 GMT (~45 min) could materially shift this read; ATR(14) of ~4 pips understates the likely move
M15 close above 0.5624 london high invalidates the false-break read and clears the session range
Failure to hold 0.5606 london low breaks the rising support from the asia low and exposes 0.5600 psych
A move back through 0.5586 asia low would erase the entire Asia-to-London rally
11:32 UTC
Range after Asia rally, momentum fading · RSI 41 · price 0.56101
False break of Asian high, lower highs since London open.
The Asia rebound from the 0.5586 low carried into London, which briefly lifted price through the 0.5615 Asian high to 0.5624 before fading back inside the range. Lower highs since then have pulled price onto the 38.2% retrace of the Asia rally, with a double low at 0.5606 holding into US payrolls. RSI(14) sits near 41 and ATR is about 4 pips.
Support: 0.56057, 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.56149, 0.56237
What it said to watch
US payrolls at 12:30 GMT (~1h) could materially shift this read and expand the ~4-pip ATR
M15 close below the 0.5606 double low would extend the retrace toward the 0.5600 psych handle and the 0.5586 asian low
Recovery above the 0.5615 asian high breaks the lower-highs sequence and reopens the 0.5624 london high
Lower highs off 0.5624 session high, base at 0.5606.
London's session high at 0.5624 briefly cleared yesterday's 0.5622 peak and was rejected. A lower-high trendline has since pulled price back to the 38.2% retrace of the Asia-London rally near 0.5609, with the london low at 0.5606 holding twice ahead of US payrolls. Below sit the 0.5600 psych level and the asian low at 0.5586.
Support: 0.56057, 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.56149, 0.56237
What it said to watch
US September NFP at 12:30 GMT (~75 min) could materially shift this read; f/c 90K, AHE 0.3%
M15 close below the london low at 0.5606 exposes the 0.5600 psych level and the 50% retrace near 0.5605
Failure to hold 0.5600 reopens the asian low at 0.5586
M15 close above the asian high at 0.5615 breaks the lower-high trendline and invalidates the fade read
11:03 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since London open · RSI 43 · price 0.56077
Failed break above 0.5620, lower-high sequence into mid-London.
After the Asia rally from the 0.5586 asian low, London pushed briefly through 0.5620 to a 0.56237 london high and reversed. Lower highs have since pulled price back to the 0.5606 intraday low, between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the Asia rally, with RSI(14) near 43 and price below EMA20 and EMA50 ahead of US payrolls.
Support: 0.56058, 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.56147, 0.56237
What it said to watch
US September payrolls at 12:30 GMT (~90 min) could materially shift this read; NFP f/c 90K
M15 close below the 0.56058 intraday low exposes the 0.5600 psych handle and the 50% fib
Loss of 0.5600 on a closing basis reopens the 0.5586 asian low
Close above the 0.56147 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline; the 0.56237 london high is the next cap
10:47 UTC
Asia rebound fading, lower highs through London · RSI 44 · price 0.56097
LH/LL sequence below 0.56237, back inside Asian range.
London broke the Asian high at 0.56149 and printed a session high at 0.56237, then slipped back inside the Asian range on a run of lower highs and lower lows. Price sits on the 38.2% fib of the 0.5586–0.56237 rebound near 0.5609, just under both EMAs, with the london low at 0.56058 below. USD is holding firm into US payrolls.
Support: 0.56058, 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.56149, 0.56237
What it said to watch
US jobs report at 12:30 UTC (~1h45) could materially shift this read; ATR near 5 pips will not hold through the release
Failure to hold the london low at 0.56058 exposes the 50% fib and the 0.5600 psych handle
An M15 close back above the asian high at 0.56149 neutralises the lower-high sequence and reopens the session high at 0.56237
Loss of 0.5600 on a closing basis brings the asian low at 0.5586 back into play
10:32 UTC
Intraday pullback after London false break · RSI 42 · price 0.56102
Lower highs since London high, back inside Asian range.
Early-Europe bounce from the 0.5586 asia low carried London through the 0.5615 asian high to a 0.5624 london high, just above the prior-day high, but it failed to hold. Price has since printed lower highs, with a lower high at 0.5619, and is now holding near the 38.2% of the asia-london rally above a 0.5606 london low (near the 50% level), with RSI(14) ~42 and price below EMA20 ahead of US payrolls.
Support: 0.56058, 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.56149, 0.56188, 0.56237
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (~2h, f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.5615 asian high and the 0.5619 lower high negates the lower-highs fade
Break of the 0.5606 london low exposes 0.5600 psych and the 61.8% fib of the asia-london rally
Failure to hold 0.5600 psych reopens the 0.5586 asia low
10:17 UTC
Intraday pullback after Asia recovery · RSI 42 · price 0.56079
Lower highs from 0.5624 London high, sliding back inside the Asian range.
Asia dipped through 0.5600 to the 0.5586 Asia low before a V-recovery. London then stalled at the 0.5624 London high, level with yesterday's high, and has printed lower highs back below the 0.5615 Asia high. Price is now testing the 38.2% fib of the Asia-London leg near 0.5609, with RSI(14) at 42 into US payrolls.
Support: 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.5615, 0.5624
What it said to watch
US jobs report at 12:30 GMT (~2h, NFP f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the 0.5615 asia high breaks the lower-highs trendline from the 0.5624 London high
Failure to hold the 0.5600 psych level, also the 61.8% fib, exposes the 0.5586 asia low
Asia rebounded from the 0.5586 low to the 0.5615 asian high as US yields eased off their peak. London cleared that level and the prior-day high at 0.5622, but the 0.5624 session high was a false break and price slipped back. It now sits just under the asian high mid-London, back below EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral near 47 ahead of US payrolls.
Support: 0.5610, 0.56049, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5615, 0.56237
What it said to watch
US jobs report at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read; ATR near 4.6 pips understates the likely move
M15 close below the 0.5610 london low exposes the fib 50% at 0.5605 and the 0.5600 round number
M15 close back above the 0.5615 asian high reopens the 0.5624 session high and prior-day high
Asia higher lows into a London high, now lower highs above the London low.
After the rollover gap lower, Asia rebounded from the 0.5586 low. London then pushed through the Asian range to a 0.5624 session high, only briefly above yesterday's 0.5622 high, in line with the digest's relief bounce as US yields eased. Since then a lower high at 0.5619 and a slip back under the 0.5615 Asia high leave price consolidating above the 0.5610 London low, with RSI(14) neutral near 46.
Support: 0.56103, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56149, 0.56188, 0.56237
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5610 london low exposes the 38.2% fib near 0.5609 and the 0.5600 round number
Reclaim of the 0.5619 lower high and the 0.5624 session high would put the 0.5625 former support area back in play
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from Asian low; Asian range high broken, rising London lows.
NZD/USD has climbed in a higher-low chain from the 0.5586 Asian low. It broke the 0.5615 Asian high at 06:00 GMT and London printed a 0.5624 session high, just above the prior-day high, before a rejection under the 0.5625 former support. The pullback held the 0.5612 swing low with London lows rising, as NZD's early-Europe rebound from sub-0.5600 extends into US payrolls.
Support: 0.56149, 0.56123, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56237, 0.5625
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K, prev 162K) lands at the NY open, with USD near 1-yr highs; it could materially shift this read.
M15 close above the 0.5624 session high and the 0.5625 former supp extends the HH chain; another rejection there keeps price capped.
A close below the 0.5612 swing low breaks the London lows trendline and the rising-low sequence.
Slipping back below the 0.5615 asian high, then the 0.5600 psych handle, would retrace most of the Asian rally (fib 38.2% near 0.5609).
09:05 UTC
Uptrend off Asian low, stalling at session high · RSI 55 · price 0.56155
Higher lows since 01:30 UTC; pullback from double test of 0.5622–0.5624.
With the USD easing off its yearly high, NZDUSD rebounded from the 0.5586 Asian low back through the 0.5600 psych handle, and London lifted it to a 0.5624 session high that matched yesterday's 0.5622 peak. That test met rejection and price is back near 0.5615, holding above the 0.5610 London low and the Asian-low trendline with RSI(14) neutral at 55.
Support: 0.5610, 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.5624, 0.5650
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT can override this structure; ATR(14) near 5 pips is likely to expand sharply
M15 close above the 0.5624 session high clears yesterday's peak and opens the 0.5650 former floor
Loss of the 0.5610 London low breaks the higher-low chain and the Asian-low trendline
Failure to hold the 0.5600 psych handle exposes the 0.5586 Asian low, with the fib 50% at 0.5605 en route
08:48 UTC
Intraday recovery off Asian low, momentum stalling · RSI 51 · price 0.56134
Higher lows from 0.5586, false break above prior-day high at 0.5624, lower highs forming early London.
NZD/USD climbed from the 0.5586 Asian low as the USD squared positions before NFP. In early London it poked above the prior-day high to a 0.5624 session high, then faded back to 0.5613. Price is hugging ema20 with RSI(14) near 51; the 0.5610 London base is the nearest shelf, and the 0.5600 round number sits at the 61.8% fib of the Asian-low move.
Support: 0.5610, 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.5620, 0.56237
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K) and AHE (f/c 0.3%) could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 0.5610 London base opens the 50% fib near 0.5605 and the 0.5600 round number
Reclaim of the 0.5620 lower high and a close above the 0.5624 session high negates the false break
Failure to hold 0.5600 exposes the 0.5586 Asian low
Higher highs and higher lows off the Asian low; Asian range broken higher in London.
NZD/USD has built a higher-high, higher-low chain off the 0.5586 Asian low. Early London broke above the Asian high at 0.5615 and printed a 0.5624 session high, just clearing Thursday's 0.5622 peak as the dollar eased into payrolls. Price is holding just under that high with RSI(14) near 62, not stretched, and the 0.5625 psych level sits directly overhead.
Support: 0.56149, 0.56103, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.56237, 0.5625
What it said to watch
US September NFP at 12:30 GMT, about 4h out, could materially shift this read
M15 close above 0.5625 psych extends the breakout beyond the session high
Close back below the asian high at 0.5615 turns the London breakout into a false break
Failure to hold the london low at 0.5610, near the 38.2% retracement of the rally from the Asian low, breaks the higher-low chain
A drop back toward the asian low at 0.5586 would reopen the 0.5600 area
08:03 UTC
Intraday uptrend off Asian low, stalling at prior high · RSI 59 · price 0.56174
Higher-low chain from 0.5586; early London capped twice at 0.5620–0.5622.
Asia printed a 0.5586 low, then climbed in a steady higher-low chain along rising support as the dollar eased off its yearly high. About an hour into London, price has pressed 0.5620 twice and stalled just under yesterday's 0.5622 prior high. ATR is about 4.6 pips, a tight tape ahead of NFP.
Support: 0.56103, 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.56224, 0.5625
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5622 prior high clears yesterday's range top, with the 0.5625 round number next
Break of the 0.5610 higher low and the rising support line from the Asian low ends the higher-low chain
Loss of 0.5600 psych, near the 61.8% of the Asian-low rally fib, exposes the 0.5586 asian low
US September NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
07:48 UTC
Rebound off Asia low, stalling below 0.5620 · RSI 55 · price 0.56126
Higher lows from 0.5586; capped at 0.5615–0.5620 early London.
Asia flushed to 0.5586, the lowest since Nov 2025, then rebuilt a higher-low chain back above the 0.5600 psych level as the dollar eased off its yearly high. The push through the Asian high at 0.5615 into London open topped at the 0.5620 session high and slipped back inside, a false break, with the higher low near 0.5610 still holding and RSI(14) neutral at 55.
Support: 0.5610, 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.56149, 0.5620, 0.56224
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5620 session high and 0.5622 prior high negates the false-break read
Loss of the 0.5610 higher low exposes the 38.2% fib near 0.5607 and the 0.5600 psych level
Break below the 0.5586 asian low resumes the downside leg
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read; pre-data ATR(14) only ~4 pips
Higher lows off Asian low, London-open false break of Asian range high.
NZD/USD climbed from the 0.5586 Asian low back above 0.5600 psych as the USD eased off its yearly high. At the London open it pushed through the 0.5615 Asian range top to a 0.5620 London high, but sellers rejected it just under the 0.5622 prior high. Price is now holding the 0.5610 asian shelf, with ATR(14) near 4 pips ahead of NFP.
Support: 0.5610, 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.5620, 0.5622
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5622 prior high negates the London high rejection
Loss of the 0.5610 asian shelf exposes 0.5607 (38.2% of the asia rally fib) and 0.5600 psych
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read; a break back below the 0.5586 asian low would erase the Asia rally
Higher-low chain off 0.5586 Asian low, capped at 0.5620 early high.
After the rollover, NZD dipped through the 0.5600 psych handle to a 0.5586 Asian low, then rebounded in a steady higher-lows sequence as the USD eased off its yearly high. A push above the Asian range just before London open met rejection at 0.5620, the early high, just under the 0.5622 prior high, and price is holding near 0.5615 into US payrolls.
Support: 0.5610, 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.5620, 0.56224
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K) can override the intraday structure.
An M15 close above the 0.5622 prior high would clear the early high rejection.
A break below 0.5610 higher lows exposes the rebound's 38.2% fib at 0.5607 and the 0.5600 psych level.
Failure at the 0.5586 asian low would reverse the Asian rebound.
07:04 UTC
Intraday rebound, stalling at London open · RSI 57 · price 0.56124
Higher lows from 0.5586 Asia low; early-London push above Asian high faded.
Asia rebounded from the 0.5586 asian low back over the 0.5600 psych handle as USD eased off its yearly high, building higher lows into the 0.5615 asian high. The pre-London spike to 0.5620 stalled under yesterday's 0.5622 prior high and slipped back inside the Asian range, a false break. Price now sits on ema20 near the 0.5610 swing low, RSI(14) ~57.
Support: 0.5610, 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.56149, 0.56224
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 UTC today could materially shift this read
M15 close above 0.5622 prior high invalidates the false-break read
Loss of the 0.5610 swing low exposes the 38.2% Asia rally fib near 0.5607 and the 0.5600 psych
Break back under the 0.5586 asian low returns the session to fresh lows
Higher lows off 0.5586 Asian low; failed push through Asian range high near 0.5620.
NZD/USD rebounded from the 0.5586 Asian low as the USD paused into NFP, building higher lows back above the 0.5600 round number. The pre-London push to a 0.5620 session high stalled just under the 0.5622 prior high and slipped back inside the Asian range. Price is now sitting on the 23.6% level of the Asian rebound fib, just above the ema20 at 0.5610.
Support: 0.5610, 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.5620, 0.56224
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~6h) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.5622 prior high clears the window high and negates the false break
Failure to hold the ema20 at 0.5610 exposes the 0.5600 round number and the 50% fib near 0.5603
A break of the 0.5586 asian low would resume the lower-low sequence
06:33 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the Asia low, stalling under prior high · RSI 68 · price 0.56169
Higher-low chain since 0.5586, pressing Thursday's 0.5620–0.5622 highs.
Asia broke the 0.5600 round number to a 0.5586 asia low, then reversed in a steady higher-low Asia rally as the USD paused into payrolls. A 06:00 UTC spike printed a 0.5620 spike high just under Thursday's 0.5622 prior high; price is holding 0.5617 ahead of London open with RSI(14) near 68.
Support: 0.5610, 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.5620, 0.56224
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5610 spike base breaks the Asia trendline and the higher-low chain
Close above the 0.5622 prior high clears Thursday's session high, with 0.5625 old support turned resistance next
Loss of the 0.5600 round number (61.8% of the Asia rally) puts the 0.5586 asia low back in play
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) can materially shift this read
06:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the Asian low, RSI warm · RSI 69 · price 0.56162
Higher-low chain since 0.5586; late-Asia breakout from a 0.5610–0.5615 range testing the prior high.
Asia reversed the post-rollover slide from the 0.5586 Asian low, printing steady higher lows before a late-Asia push to the 0.5620 Asian high, just under yesterday's 0.5622 London prior high. RSI(14) sits near 69 as the kiwi rebounds into NFP on firm-but-pausing USD.
Support: 0.5610, 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.5620, 0.56224
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5622 prior high clears yesterday's session top
Loss of the 0.5610 range base breaks the higher-lows chain and puts the 0.5600 psych handle back in play
London open in ~45m may test the Asian high/low extremes
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
06:03 UTC
Short-term recovery, stalling under Asia high · RSI 67 · price 0.56129
False break of NY low, V-reversal, tight consolidation late Asia.
Asia briefly broke below yesterday's NY low (0.5593) to 0.5586, then reversed back above the 0.5600 psych level as USD eased ahead of NFP. Into the London open, price is compressing in a 3-4 pip band just under the 0.5615 Asia high, above EMA20, with RSI(14) near 67. The 38.2% rally fib sits near 0.5604.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55933, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.56149, 0.56224
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5615 asia high exposes the 0.5622 london high
Loss of 0.5600 psych and the 50% rally fib reopens the 0.5593 ny low and the 0.5586 asia low
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~6.5h) could materially shift this read
05:47 UTC
Rebounding from Asia low, momentum flattening · RSI 59 · price 0.56117
V-recovery off 0.5586, now compressing under the Asian high.
Early Asia pushed below the prior NY lows near 0.5593 to a session low at 0.5586, then reversed. The 29-pip rebound back through the 0.5600 round number came as the USD eased and the market squared up before NFP. Price is now holding a tight 0.5610–0.5615 band between the range low and the Asian high into the London open, with RSI(14) cooled to ~59.
Support: 0.56099, 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.56149, 0.56243
What it said to watch
London close above the 0.5615 Asian high puts the 0.5622–0.5625 prior high and digest pivot in play
Loss of the 0.5610 range low exposes the 0.5600 round number, which aligns with the 50% level of the Asia rebound fib
Break back under the 0.5586 session low resumes the lower-low sequence
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
05:32 UTC
Intraday recovery, stalling under Asian high · RSI 60 · price 0.56115
V-shaped rebound from Asian low, tight compression below 0.5615.
Asia broke below the 0.5600 round number to an Asian low at 0.5586, then fully recovered as USD eased off its yearly high. Price has been capped at the 0.5615 Asian high for the last hour and is holding a 0.5608 higher low into the London open. RSI(14) has cooled to ~60 and ATR(14) is near 3 pips.
Support: 0.5608, 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.5615, 0.5618, 0.5624
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5615 asian high exposes the 0.5618 NY high and the 0.5624 prior high
Loss of the 0.5608 higher low and a slip back under the 0.5600 round number (50% fib) reopens the 0.5586 asian low
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~7h) could materially shift this read
05:17 UTC
Intraday recovery, stalling at the Asian high · RSI 66 · price 0.56129
Higher lows off 0.5586 after a false break of the prior-day low; tight consolidation 0.5612–0.5615.
Early Asia session pushed below yesterday's NY low at 0.5593 to an Asian low of 0.5586. The pair then retraced the whole drop as US yields eased, reclaiming the 0.5600 round number. Late in Asia the rally is flattening in a 3-pip band just under the 0.5615 Asian high, with the higher low at 0.5608 underneath and RSI(14) cooling to ~66.
Support: 0.56079, 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.56149, 0.56183, 0.56243
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5608 higher low exposes the 0.5600 round number, which sits near the 50% retrace of the Asian rally
A close above the 0.5615 Asian high brings the 0.5618 NY high and 0.5624 prior high into play
A return below the 0.5586 Asian low negates the false-break read
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~7h, f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
Asia sweep to 0.5586, then higher lows; compressing under asia high.
Early Asia swept under the NY-session lows near 0.5593 to the asia low at 0.5586, then rebounded about 29 pips. That rebound reclaimed the 0.5600 psych level on a chain of higher lows, in step with the slight Asian dip in US yields. Late in Asia, price is compressing just under the asia high at 0.5615, with RSI(14) near 73 and a quiet 3.8-pip ATR.
Support: 0.56079, 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.56149, 0.56183, 0.56243
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5618 ny high opens the path to the 0.5624 prior high
Loss of the 0.5608 pullback low puts 0.5600 psych (fib 50% of the Asia rebound) back in play
Failure to hold 0.5600 psych exposes the 0.5586 asia low
London open in ~2h is the first test of the Asian range
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~7.5h, f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain off asia low, capped near 0.5615.
Asia session undercut yesterday's 0.5593 lows to an asia low at 0.5586, then the Asia rally reclaimed the 0.5600 round number on a steady higher-low chain into a session high at 0.56145, just under yesterday's 0.5615 London highs. RSI(14) near 66 with the last three bars stalling there, while USD holds its 18-month high into NFP.
Support: 0.56079, 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.56145, 0.56224
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.56145 session high clears yesterday's 0.5615 highs and opens the 0.5622 london high
Loss of the 0.56079 swing low breaks the higher-low chain; 0.5600 round number aligns with the Asia rally fib 50%
Return below the 0.5586 asia low negates the false break
London open in ~2h; US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
04:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend off Asia low, momentum hot · RSI 72 · price 0.56124
HH/HL chain from 0.5586 session low, pressing into prior high zone.
Late Asia session: after a dip to the 0.5586 session low, a steady HH/HL recovery reclaimed the 0.5600 round number and is now retesting the 0.5615 prior high from yesterday's London session. RSI(14) is near 72 and price is sitting on the rally trendline, while a firm USD into payrolls keeps the bounce in relief territory.
Support: 0.56079, 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.5615, 0.56224
What it said to watch
US NFP, unemployment and AHE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above 0.5615 prior high opens the path to the 0.5622 day high
Break below the 0.5608 swing low ends the HL chain and loses the rally trendline
Failure to hold the 0.5600 round number puts the 0.5586 session low back in focus
04:17 UTC
Intraday rebound, steady higher highs and higher lows off the Asia low · RSI 71 · price 0.56123
False break below the prior-day low, recovered above 0.5600, now testing the range top.
Late in the Asia session, the pair broke below yesterday's 0.5593 low to a 0.5586 session low, then reversed. A clean higher-high, higher-low chain has since reclaimed the 0.5600 round number and is now pressing the 0.5615 range top, with RSI(14) near 71. The bounce runs against the USD-led slide in the digest, and the prior high at 0.5624 lines up with the 0.5625 pivot flagged there.
Support: 0.56079, 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.5615, 0.56243
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5615 range top opens the prior high at 0.5624
Loss of the 0.5608 micro hl and rising trendline breaks the rebound structure
Failure back below the 0.5600 round number puts the 0.5586 session low back in focus
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
London open in about 3h can redraw the session range
V-shaped rebound from the Asia low, higher-low chain into the session high.
With the USD at yearly highs, the Asia session swept the prior NY low at 0.5593 and set a fresh low at 0.5586. Price then reversed in a steady higher-low chain back above the 0.5600 round number. It is now pressing the Asia high at 0.5612 with RSI(14) near 71, and yesterday's swing high at 0.5622 is the next cap above.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55933, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.5612, 0.56224
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5612 asia high extends the recovery toward the 0.5622 swing high
Loss of the 0.5600 round number (near the 50% of the asia recovery) and the rising lows line returns focus to the 0.5593 ny low and the 0.5586 asia low
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3%) could materially shift this read
London open in about 3h is the first test of whether the Asia range holds
03:47 UTC
Intraday rebound, HH/HL chain off the Asian low · RSI 68 · price 0.56088
False break of the prior-day low, steady higher lows since.
Asia session pushed through Thursday's 0.5593 low to 0.5586 with USD at a yearly high, then recovered 26 pips to the 0.5612 Asian high. That makes the drop a false break, followed by a clean higher-low chain. Price is pausing just under the Asian high, RSI(14) near 68 and price still resting on the rising trendline from the swing low.
Support: 0.5604, 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.5612, 0.5615, 0.5622
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5604 higher low and the rising trendline breaks the HH/HL chain
M15 close above the 0.5612 Asian high opens the 0.5615 prior high and the 0.5622 NY high
Loss of the 0.5600 round number reopens the 0.5586 Asian low
London open is the next test of the Asian range
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3%) could materially shift this read
Asian low false break below 0.5593, higher lows since 0.5586.
Asia session dipped below yesterday's 0.5593 NY low to 0.5586, then recovered 26 pips back above the 0.5600 round number. Price is now pressing the 0.5612 session high beneath the 0.5618 NY highs, with RSI(14) near 67 and ATR about 4 pips, even as the USD holds 18-month highs.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55935, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.5612, 0.5618, 0.56224
What it said to watch
Holding above the 0.5600 round number, also the 50% of the asian low rebound fib, keeps the false-break read intact; a slip back below re-exposes the 0.5593 ny low
M15 close above the 0.5618 ny highs exposes the 0.5622 swing high from the London session
A break of the rebound trendline from the 0.5586 asian low ends the current higher-low sequence
London open in ~3.5h is the first test of whether the 0.5612 session high caps the bounce
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.5622 NY high; Asia sweep of NY low reversed into a 22-pip recovery.
The Asia session broke below yesterday's NY low at 0.5593 to an asia low of 0.5586, then reversed back above the 0.5600 round number. Price is pressing the 0.5608–0.5609 session high, capped by the late-NY high. RSI(14) is near 62, and the move is retracing within a lower-high sequence from the 0.5622 NY high as the USD holds yearly highs.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55933, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.5609, 0.56123, 0.56224
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5609 session high exposes the 0.5612 swing high, then the 0.5622 ny high
Slip back below the 0.5600 round number puts the asia rally fib 50–61.8% zone and the 0.5593 ny low back in play
Loss of the 0.5586 asia low resumes the lower-low sequence
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read once London hands over to NY
03:04 UTC
Downtrend, Asia rebound testing lower-high zone · RSI 58 · price 0.56042
Lower highs from 0.5628; Asia false break below 0.5593 reclaimed.
Lower highs capped Oct 1 London and NY. Early Asia extended the slide through the 0.5593 prior low to a 0.5586 session low as USD held yearly highs. A V-shaped rebound has since reclaimed the 0.5600 psych and sits at the 78.6% of the decline fib, just under the 0.5607 session high.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55933, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.56067, 0.56123, 0.56224
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5607 session high breaks the lower-high chain; 0.5612 swing high and 0.5622 london high sit above
Loss of the 0.5600 psych and the rebound line puts the 0.5593 prior low and 0.5586 session low back in focus
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
Lower highs since London; Asia swept prior low and reclaimed.
Early Asia session swept the prior low at 0.5593 down to a session low of 0.5586, then rebounded 16 pips to the gap fill at 0.5603, which also marks the 78.6% retrace of the Asia drop fib. The lower-high chain from London (0.5622, the ny high at 0.5612, the asia high at 0.5607) remains intact, with the USD at yearly highs into NFP.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55933, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.56035, 0.56067, 0.56123
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5607 asia high breaks the lower-high chain; the 0.5612 ny high sits next
Rejection at the 0.5603 gap fill keeps the rebound a pause within the intraday downtrend
Slip back below 0.5600 psych reopens the 0.5593 prior low and 0.5586 session low
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~10h) could materially shift this read
02:32 UTC
Downtrend, early-Asia bounce under way · RSI 51 · price 0.56003
Lower-high chain intact; V-recovery from 0.5586 retesting 0.5600.
Asia session broke below the ny lows at 0.5593 to a 0.5586 asia low as USD held at its yearly high, then recovered roughly 70% of the drop back to the 0.5600 psych level. Price now sits just under the fib 78.6 at 0.5602 and the falling lower-highs trendline, with the 0.5607 rollover hi and the 0.5612 lower high capping the session.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55935, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.56023, 0.56067, 0.56123
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5607 rollover hi breaks the lower-highs trendline and the downtrend read
Failure to hold 0.5600 psych puts the 0.5593 ny lows and 0.5586 asia low back in focus
Rejection at the 0.5602 fib 78.6 would keep the Asia bounce corrective
US jobs report at 12:30 UTC (~10h) could materially shift this read
02:03 UTC
Downtrend, Asia bounce off fresh low · RSI 46 · price 0.55975
Lower highs intact; Asia swept below NY lows then reclaimed.
The Asia session broke below yesterday's NY lows at 0.5593 to a 0.5586 Asian low. A sharp bounce in the last bar returned price to 0.5597, where it is testing the falling trendline off the 0.5622 lower high and the 38.2% fib of the drop from the 0.5612 NY high. The USD is still bid at an 18-month high into NFP, and the 0.5600 psych level sits just overhead.
Support: 0.5593, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56123
What it said to watch
An M15 close above 0.5600 psych and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high chain and opens the 0.5612 NY high
Failure to hold back above the 0.5593 NY lows puts the 0.5586 Asian low back in play
US NFP at 12:30 UTC today (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3%) could materially shift this read
01:47 UTC
Downtrend, fresh low in Asia · RSI 32 · price 0.55909
Lower highs since rollover; broke below yesterday's late-NY range.
The Asia session broke yesterday's NY prior low at 0.5593 and printed a session low at 0.5586, with USD holding its yearly high. Lower highs since the rollover remain intact, and RSI(14) near 32 is soft but not oversold.
Support: 0.5586, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5593, 0.5600, 0.5609
What it said to watch
Recovery above the 0.5593 prior low puts price back inside yesterday's late-NY range, capped by the 0.5609 range top
M15 close back above the 0.5600 round number and the 38.2% fib of the drop near 0.5596 breaks the lower-high chain
Break of the 0.5586 session low leaves 0.5580 psych as the next reference
US NFP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
01:32 UTC
Downtrend, fresh lows in Asia · RSI 26 · price 0.55875
Lower highs and lower lows, NY low broken.
The early Asia session broke the NY low at 0.5593 on the 00:00 UTC drop and is printing a new session low at 0.55875 as USD holds its yearly high. Rallies stall under the descending trendline from 0.5612, with the Asian high at 0.5607 capping. RSI(14) near 26 is oversold but not extreme.
Support: 0.55875, 0.5585
Resistance: 0.55933, 0.5600, 0.56067
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5593 ny low turns the break into a false break
Recovery of the 0.5600 round number and the descending trendline would break the lower-high sequence
Asian high 0.5607 caps the session range; a move above it ends the intraday downtrend read
Failure to hold the session low opens the 0.5585 psych level
US NFP at 12:30 UTC today could materially shift this read
01:04 UTC
Downtrend, fresh lows in early Asia · RSI 29 · price 0.55913
Lower highs from 0.5622; Asian range floor at 0.5600 broken.
Early Asia session broke the Asian range floor at the 0.5600 psych level and slipped through the NY low at 0.5593, printing a session low at 0.5590 as the USD holds at yearly highs. Lower highs since 0.5622 keep the downtrend line intact, and the 50% fib of the latest leg sits at 0.5600. RSI(14) is near 29 and ATR(14) is about 4 pips, so the breakdown is stretched but not extreme.
Support: 0.55902
Resistance: 0.55933, 0.5600, 0.56067
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 0.5600 psych level (50% fib) would mark the Asian range break as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.5590 session low extends the lower-low sequence
A move through the 0.5607 Asian high would break the downtrend line from 0.5622
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
Asia break below the post-rollover range, fresh window low.
Early Asia session broke the post-rollover 0.5600–0.5607 range lower. Price printed a session low at 0.5590, below yesterday's ny low at 0.5593, with the USD holding its yearly high. The lower-high chain from the 0.5622 NY high sits under the descending trendline. RSI(14) near 30 is soft but not stretched, and ATR runs about 34 pips.
Support: 0.55902
Resistance: 0.55933, 0.5600, 0.56067
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5593 ny low would turn the break into a false break
Reclaim of the 0.5600 round number and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain; the session high at 0.5607 (near the fib 50%) caps above
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
00:32 UTC
Downtrend, fresh lows in early Asia · RSI 33 · price 0.55916
Lower highs below descending trendline; Asian range broken lower.
Early Asia session broke below the 0.5598–0.5607 Asian range and the 0.5593 NY low, printing a fresh session low at 0.5591 as USD holds yearly highs. The decline from 0.5622 keeps printing lower highs under a descending trendline. RSI(14) is near 33, soft but not oversold.
Support: 0.55911
Resistance: 0.55933, 0.5600, 0.56067
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 0.5600 psych puts price back inside the Asian range and undoes the range break
Acceptance back above the 0.5593 ny low would mark the break as a false break
Close above the descending trendline near 0.5603 breaks the lower-high sequence; 0.5607 asian high sits just above
Holding below the 0.5591 session low keeps the decline-fib retracement shallow
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Early Asia sees NZD/USD back on the 0.5592–0.5594 day low for a third test, after the NY session low and the rollover gap, with the dollar's yearly high keeping the pair heavy below 0.5600 psych. Lower highs from the 0.5612 lower high through the 0.5607 Asian high form a descending trendline. RSI(14) is near 37 and ATR is about 5 pips.
Support: 0.55922, 0.5590
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56067, 0.56123
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5592 day low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5590 round number
Reclaim of 0.5600 psych and the descending trendline near 0.5604 neutralises the breakdown read; the 0.5607 Asian high and 0.5612 lower high sit above
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since 0.5622; tight early-Asia compression just above 0.5600.
NZD/USD sold off from the 0.5622 swing high to a 0.5594 day low during NY hours as the USD pushed to a yearly high on firm jobless claims. Buyers stepped in at 0.5593–0.5594 twice, and early Asia is compressing just above the 0.5600 psych handle, with ATR(14) near 4 pips and RSI(14) at 43.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55935
Resistance: 0.5609, 0.56123, 0.56224
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5594 day low resumes the lower-low sequence; the rollover spike to 0.5592 was a thin-liquidity print
Reclaim of the 0.5609 late NY high, then the 0.5612 lower high, would break the lower-high chain within the swing high–day low fib
Loss of the 0.5600 psych level on a closing basis shifts the compression lower
US NFP at 12:30 UTC Friday could materially shift this read