19:06 UTC
Range-bound, lower highs since January · RSI 41 · price 0.56517
Lower highs pressing into a flat 0.5600–0.5630 base.
NZD/USD has been range-bound between the Nov low at 0.5576 and the 2025 high at 0.6120 since Q3 2025. Each rally since January has stalled at a lower high, compressing price into the 0.5600–0.5630 base. Six straight weekly losses from the 0.5990 lower high have taken price back below a flattening W1 EMA(50) near 0.5815, a level that lines up with the 38.2% retracement of the Jan–Sep decline. The sharp US payrolls miss has produced only a muted bounce off the 2026 low at 0.5626, with the 0.5600 psych level directly beneath.
Support: 0.5626, 0.5600, 0.5576
Resistance: 0.5815, 0.5990, 0.6120
What it said to watch
- Weekly close below the Nov low at 0.5576 breaks the base and the range floor in place since Q4 2025
- Holding the 2026 low at 0.5626 and the 0.5600 psych level keeps the range read intact
- Weekly close back above the EMA(50) near 0.5815 (38.2% of the Jan–Sep decline) restores mid-range structure
- A break of the lower highs trendline and the 0.5990 lower high is needed to end the descending-highs sequence; the 2025 high at 0.6120 caps the range above
- RBNZ decision Oct 28 (hike to 3% ~80% priced) and the NZ election Nov 7 could materially shift this read