19:05 UTC
Range-bound, five-week decline from Aug high · RSI 41 · price 0.56923
Contracting range: lower highs since Jan, rising lows since Nov.
NZDUSD has been range-bound between roughly 0.5576 and 0.6120 since Q2 2025. The range is narrowing, with lower highs from the Jan high at 0.6093 through the Aug high at 0.5988 and rising lows from the Nov low at 0.5576 to the June low at 0.5626. Price has fallen for five straight weeks, rejected below the lower-highs line, and now sits beneath a flattening W1 EMA(50) near 0.5820 and past the 61.8% retracement of the 2025 range fib. Fed-hike bets and US yields above 5% have outweighed an RBNZ October hike that is already largely priced.
Support: 0.5626, 0.5600, 0.5576
Resistance: 0.5820, 0.5988, 0.6093
What it said to watch
- A weekly close below the june low at 0.5626 breaks the rising-lows line and exposes the 0.5600 psych level and the nov low at 0.5576
- Recovering the ema50 near 0.5820 would return price to the middle of the range
- A move through the lower-highs line near 0.5970 and the aug high at 0.5988 would break the contraction; the jan high at 0.6093 caps above that
- US ADP, PCE and GDP on Sep 30, followed by NFP and the RBNZ decision on Oct 28, could materially shift this read