Lower highs from 0.5749; tight base 0.5650–0.5677 since Thursday.
Tuesday's Asia-to-London push to the 0.5749 week high faded, and Wednesday's NY session broke 0.5700 on the strong US flash PMI, extending the lower-high sequence into Thursday. Since then the 0.5650 week low has held on three tests, and Friday has printed a higher low at 0.5655 against lower highs capped at the 0.5677 friday high, with USD easing on the oil drop. Price sits marginally above EMA(20) near 0.5664 but below EMA(50) near 0.5670, with RSI(14) flat around 50 and ATR compressed to ~8 pips.
Support: 0.56552, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.56774, 0.5686, 0.5700
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5650 week low confirms a lower-low and resumes the downtrend
Loss of the 0.5655 higher low breaks Friday's rising lows line
Close above the 0.5677 friday high and the lower highs line puts the 0.5686 thu high (38.2% fib) in play
Acceptance above 0.5686 opens the 0.5700 round number, the 50% fib of the Tuesday-to-Thursday drop
RBA decision Sep 29 and US ADP/PCE on Sep 30 could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Tuesday; flat floor at 0.5650 with Friday higher lows.
NZDUSD has printed lower highs since Tuesday's London-morning peak at 0.5749. The strong US flash PMI drove Wednesday's NY-session break below 0.5700, and a further NY leg on Thursday set the week low at 0.5650. That floor has held four tests into Friday's Asia session, and a London-led higher low at 0.5655 has lifted price back above EMA(20), though the Friday high at 0.5677 is capped just under the lower-highs trendline and the 23.6% fib near 0.5673, with RSI(14) around 55 and no momentum break yet.
Support: 0.5655, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5677, 0.5686, 0.5700
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5686 thu high breaks the lower-highs trendline and confirms the triple bottom, putting 0.5700 psych in play
Failure to hold the 0.5655 higher low returns price to the 0.5650 week low; a close below extends the downtrend toward 0.5626
Repeated stalls at the 0.5677 fri high and the 23.6% fib keep the consolidation intact
RBA decision Sep 29 and US ADP/PCE on Sep 30 could materially shift this read; Monday open gap risk
Wednesday's strong US flash PMI print drove the week's dominant leg, taking NZDUSD from the 0.5730s through 0.5700 and extending a lower-highs sequence off Tuesday's 0.5749 week high. Thursday's NY session and Friday's Asia session both found demand at the 0.5650 week low, forming a double bottom, but the Friday high at 0.5677 met the lower-highs trendline during NY hours and was rejected. Price is flat on EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 54, while EMA(50) still sits above and the 0.5686 lower high remains intact.
Support: 0.5650, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56774, 0.5686, 0.5700
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5686 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and confirms the double bottom, with the 0.5700 round number and 38.2% fib next
Failure to hold the 0.5650 week low resumes the downtrend and exposes the 0.5600 range floor
Fed's Hammack (18:00 UTC today) and a weekend gap risk could shift the read into Monday's open
RBA decision Sep 29 and US ADP Sep 30 are the next scheduled catalysts for this structure
Lower highs since Tuesday; 0.5650-0.5678 base Thu-Fri.
The slide from Tuesday's 0.5749 London high accelerated on Wednesday as the US flash PMI beat pushed price through the 0.5700 round number, and Thursday's NY session extended it to a 0.5650 week low. A second test of 0.5650 in Friday's Asian session held, and the London bounce stalled below the 23.6% fib of the weekly drop, leaving the friday high at 0.5677 under the lower-highs line. Price is now oscillating around a flattening EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 48, a pause inside the downtrend rather than a turn, as the USD eases with yields.
Support: 0.5650, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56774, 0.5686, 0.5700
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 0.5686 Thu high breaks the lower-highs sequence and brings the 0.5700 round number into view
Failure to hold the 0.5650 week low opens the way to the 0.5600 range floor in place since April
A close above the 0.5677 friday high would put price back above the 23.6% fib of the weekly drop
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC today could shift the USD tone into the weekend close
Lower highs from Tuesday's 0.5749; 0.5650–0.5686 range since Thursday.
Tuesday's Asia-session spike topped at 0.5749 in London and faded. The dominant leg came in NY hours: strong US flash PMIs drove Wednesday's break of the 0.5700 round number, and Thursday extended to the 0.5650 week low. Since then that low has held on three tests, and Friday's London recovery stalled at the fri high 0.5676, near the 23.6% of the Tue-Thu fib. The NY dip low at 0.5655 after the firm UoM print was bought back above the ema20 (~0.5664), and price now sits just under EMA(50) with RSI(14) back near neutral at 53.
Support: 0.5664, 0.5655, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5676, 0.5686, 0.5700
What it said to watch
H1 close above the thu high at 0.5686 breaks the lower-highs trendline sequence and completes a base off 0.5650
Loss of the ny dip low at 0.5655, then the 0.5650 week low, resumes the downtrend toward the 0.5626/0.5600 floor
Rejection at the fri high 0.5676 keeps the 0.5650–0.5686 range intact below the 0.5700 round number
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC today and weekend headlines into Tuesday's RBA decision could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Tuesday's week high; tight 0.5650–0.5676 consolidation since Thursday.
The pair has faded roughly 100 pips from Tuesday's London week high at 0.5749, with the dominant leg arriving at Wednesday's NY open as strong US flash PMIs and rising yields lifted the USD. Since Thursday's NY session the week low at 0.5650 has absorbed three tests while the range top at 0.5676 capped Friday's London bounce, keeping a lower-highs sequence intact. Price is now hovering just under a flattening EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 49, well short of the 38.2% fib of the week's decline near 0.5688 and the 0.5700 psych level.
Support: 0.5650, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56756, 0.5700, 0.5749
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5650 week low extends the downtrend and exposes the 0.5600 range floor
H1 close above the 0.5676 range top and the lower-highs line puts the 0.5688 fib and 0.5700 psych level in play
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could shift USD yields and this read into the weekly close
Further closes around EMA(20) with RSI holding near 50 keep the consolidation read intact
Lower highs from Tuesday's 0.5749 peak; flat base at 0.5650 since Thursday.
NZD/USD has printed lower highs since Tuesday's London-session peak at 0.5749. The heaviest leg came during NY hours Wednesday after the US PMI beats, and a second drop into Thursday's NY session reached the 0.5650 week low. That low has since held on three probes. Friday's London bounce stalled at the 0.5676 fri high, near the 23.6% fib and under the lower-highs trendline, leaving price hovering at the ema20 with RSI(14) back near 51 as the decline pauses.
Support: 0.5663, 0.5650, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5676, 0.5686, 0.5700
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5650 week low resumes the lower-low sequence and exposes the 0.5600 range floor
H1 close above the 0.5676 fri high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the sequence, opening the 0.5686 thu high and the 0.5700 round number
Failure to hold the ema20 near 0.5663 keeps the 0.5650 base under pressure
UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Tuesday's rally to 0.5749 has fully unwound. The main leg lower came during NY hours on Wednesday after the US PMI beats, and a second NY-session push on Thursday reached the 0.5650 week low. That week low has since held on four tests. Friday's London bounce stalled at the 0.5675 friday high, near the 23.6% retracement of the Tue–Thu drop, and price is now flat around EMA(20) with EMA(50) overhead and RSI(14) back near 50.
Support: 0.5650, 0.5626, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5675, 0.5686, 0.5700
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5650 week low resumes the downtrend toward the 0.5626 prior swing and the 0.5600 range floor
H1 close above the 0.5686 thursday high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens 0.5700 and the 38.2% fib
UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Repeated stalls at the 0.5675 friday high keep the bounce inside the 0.5650–0.5686 consolidation
12:04 UTC
Downtrend, stalling at 0.5650 · RSI 57 · price 0.56707
Lower highs from 0.5749; double-bottom base at 0.5650.
The Tuesday-to-Thursday sell-off ran from Tuesday's 0.5749 London high, and the heaviest legs came in NY hours. Wednesday's slide followed the US flash PMI beats, and Thursday's drop came as US yields hit new highs. The 0.5650 week low held on Thursday and again in Friday's Asia session. A London bounce as the USD eased has lifted price back above EMA(20) toward the 0.5676 neckline of a tentative double bottom, with RSI(14) recovering from oversold into the high 50s.
Support: 0.5664, 0.5650, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5676, 0.5686, 0.5700
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5676 neckline confirms the double bottom and exposes the 0.5686 Thu high and the 0.5700 round number
Failure to hold the ema20 near 0.5664 puts the 0.5650 week low back in play
Break of the 0.5650 week low resumes the downtrend toward the 0.5600 range floor
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
A break of Friday's higher lows from 0.5650 undercuts the rebound structure
Lower highs from 0.5749; 0.5650 floor tested three times.
NZDUSD has carved lower highs from Tuesday's 0.5749 week high. The heaviest selling came in NY hours on Wednesday after the US flash PMI beat, and again on Thursday as US yields pushed to new highs. The 0.5650 week low has held three tests since Thursday's NY session, and Friday's London bounce stalled at the 0.5672 session high near the 23.6% fib, with price hovering just above EMA(20) and RSI(14) back near 52.
Support: 0.5663, 0.5650, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5672, 0.5686, 0.5700
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5650 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5600 range floor
Failure to hold EMA(20) near 0.5663 returns price to the Friday base
H1 close above the 0.5686 lower high and 38.2% fib breaks the lower-highs trendline; 0.5700 round number sits just above
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM sentiment/inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC today could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Tuesday's 0.5749 peak; tentative double bottom at 0.5650.
The week's dominant move has been lower. Price fell from Tuesday's 0.5749 week high in two NY-session legs: Wednesday's slide after the strong US PMIs, then Thursday's drop to the 0.5650 week low as US yields hit new highs. Friday's Asia session held that same low for a tentative double bottom, and a late-Asia-into-London bounce has lifted price back above the ema20 with RSI(14) recovering to the mid-50s. The rebound is stalling at the ema50 near 0.5673, just under the 23.6% fib of the week's drop.
Support: 0.5663, 0.5650, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5673, 0.5686, 0.5700
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5686 thu high breaks the lower-high sequence and exposes the 0.5700 round number, also the 50% fib of the week's drop
Failure to hold the 0.5650 week low negates the double bottom and confirms a lower-low toward 0.5626 and the 0.5600 range floor
Slip back below the ema20 near 0.5663 would signal the bounce is fading beneath the ema50
US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs daily since Tuesday; 0.5650-0.5686 consolidation since Thursday.
NZDUSD has printed a lower high each day since Tuesday's 0.5749 peak. The dominant leg came in Wednesday's NY session, when the strong US flash PMIs pushed the pair through 0.5700. Since Thursday the slide has stalled in a 0.5650-0.5686 band: the week low at 0.5650 has held twice, and early London today lifted price back above EMA(20) at 0.5662, with RSI(14) around 54 and EMA(50) near 0.5674 plus the fib 23.6% capping the rebound so far.
Support: 0.5662, 0.5650, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5674, 0.5686, 0.5700
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5686 thu high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the fib 50% at 0.5700, the break-down pivot
Failure to hold the 0.5650 week low exposes the 0.5600 range floor in place since April
Rejection at EMA(50) near 0.5674 keeps the consolidation nested inside the downtrend
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC), US durables (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
07:04 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading at the lows · RSI 56 · price 0.5668
Lower highs from Tuesday's 0.5749 peak, flat triple low at 0.5650.
Lower highs have formed since Tuesday's 0.5749 peak. The dominant legs came in the NY session: Wednesday's strong US PMIs and hawkish Fed repricing pushed price through the 0.5700 old support, and Thursday's NY selling extended the move to a 0.5650 triple low that held through Asia. Into the London open price reclaimed EMA(20) at 0.5662, and RSI(14) has lifted to ~56 against flat lows, a mild bullish divergence, while EMA(50) near 0.5675 (also Thursday's NY bounce high) and Thursday's high at 0.5686 cap the rebound.
Support: 0.5662, 0.5650, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5675, 0.5686, 0.5700
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.5686 thu high, which also sits near the 38.2% retracement of the Tuesday peak to triple low move, breaks the lower-high sequence and puts 0.5700 old support in focus as resistance
Rejection at the ema50 near 0.5675 keeps the rebound corrective inside the 0.5650-0.5686 box
Failure to hold the 0.5650 triple low confirms a lower low and opens the path toward the 0.5600 range floor
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC, US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields
Lower highs since Tuesday, lows flattening at 0.5650.
Rising US yields kept USD bid all week. Strong US flash PMIs drove the NY-session slide on Wednesday, extending lower highs from Tuesday's 0.5749 London peak through 0.5732, 0.5686 and 0.5675. Since Thursday's NY session the week low at 0.5650 has held on two tests, including one in Friday's Asia session. Price is now hugging EMA(20) near 0.5660 with RSI(14) flat in the low 40s, while the lower highs line and Friday's high at 0.5669 cap a tightening range.
Support: 0.5650, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56685, 0.5686, 0.5700
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5650 week low exposes the 0.5600 range floor in place since April
Close above the 0.5669 fri high breaks the lower highs line; 0.5686 thu high, near the 38.2% fib of the week's drop, sits next
Reclaiming 0.5700, the round number and 50% fib, would negate the lower-high sequence
US Durables at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Tuesday, compressing into flat 0.5650 base.
The week's dominant move came in Wednesday's NY session, when the flash PMI beats and firmer US yields broke the pair below 0.5700. Thursday's NY session extended the slide to the 0.5650 week low. That low has since held on three tests, while the Asia high at 0.56685 sits on a descending line of lower highs from Thursday's high at 0.5686. Price is capped below EMA(20) near 0.5659 with RSI(14) flat in the low 40s. The pullback structure retraces the 0.5749–0.5650 leg, and the fib 50% lines up with 0.5700.
Support: 0.5650, 0.5626, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56685, 0.5686, 0.5700
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 0.5650 week low exposes the 0.5626 intermediate level and then the 0.5600 range floor
An H1 close above the descending line and the 0.56685 Asia high puts the 0.5686 Thu high back in play
Reclaiming 0.5700 at the fib 50% would negate the lower-high sequence
US UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC and Fed speakers Williams and Hammack could materially shift this read
03:03 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs each day since Tuesday · RSI 39 · price 0.5652
Lower highs from 0.5749; basing just above the 0.5650 week low.
The pair has printed a lower high every day since Tuesday's 0.5749 London peak. Wednesday's NY-session drop on the strong US flash PMIs broke the 0.5700 area, and Thursday's London bounce to 0.5684 (lower high) faded in NY to a 0.5650 week low. Price is capped below the H1 ema20 near 0.5659 and today's 0.5668 Asia high, with RSI(14) near 39, soft but not oversold, as rising US yields keep the USD bid.
Support: 0.5650, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5659, 0.56685, 0.56842
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5650 week low extends the lower-low sequence and exposes the 0.5600 range floor
Recovery through the 0.5668 Asia high and the 0.5684 lower high would break the falling trendline from 0.5749
US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read via October Fed hike odds
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC) and Hammack (18:00 UTC) remarks on further tightening
Lower highs since Tuesday; tight 0.5650–0.5675 base.
NZDUSD has printed lower highs since Tuesday's London-session peak at 0.5749. The bulk of the ~100-pip slide came in Wednesday's NY session, when the blowout US flash PMIs broke 0.5700 as US yields climbed to new highs. Since the Thursday high at 0.5686, price has compressed between the 0.5650 week low (tested twice during NY hours) and a descending lower-high line near 0.5670. EMA(20) at 0.5663 is capping bounces, RSI(14) is flat in the low 40s, and the rebound has not reached the 23.6% fib of the weekly decline.
Support: 0.5650, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5663, 0.5675, 0.5686
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5650 week low extends the downtrend toward the 0.5600 range floor
Close above the 0.5675 lower high and the Thursday high at 0.5686 breaks the lower-high sequence
US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC) and Hammack (18:00 UTC) remarks via US yields
Lower highs from 0.5749; basing at 0.5650 under EMA20.
NZDUSD has printed a sequence of lower highs since Tuesday's 0.5749 London-session peak. Most of the week's damage came in Wednesday's NY session, when the strong US flash PMIs broke the 0.5700 psych level. Thursday's NY session tested the 0.5650 week low twice as US yields climbed, and price has since compressed in a 10-pip band just below EMA(20) near 0.5663 and the lower-highs trendline, with RSI(14) stuck in the low 40s.
Support: 0.5650, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5663, 0.5675, 0.5700
What it said to watch
H1 close above the lower-highs trendline and Thursday's 0.5675 lower high breaks the sequence of lower highs; the 38.2% fib near 0.5688 and the 0.5700 psych level sit above
Failure to hold the 0.5650 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward 0.5626 and the 0.5600 range floor
US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read in the NY session
Williams (09:15 UTC) and Hammack (18:00 UTC) remarks on October hike pricing, plus Trump-Xi headlines, are the other US-yield catalysts
The week high printed at 0.5749 in Tuesday's London session. Wednesday's sharp US PMI beats then broke 0.5700 during NY hours, and that level now acts as a broken floor. Thursday's NY session extended the leg to a 0.5650 week low as Treasury yields climbed on hawkish Fed speakers and the 7-year auction. Price holds below EMA(20) near 0.5662 and EMA(50) with RSI(14) around 39, while the Thursday high at 0.5686 sits on the lower-high trendline, which has capped every bounce since Tuesday.
Support: 0.5650, 0.5626, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5662, 0.5686, 0.5700
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 0.5650 week low opens the 0.5626 prior low and the ~0.5600 range floor
An H1 close back above the 0.5686 Thu high (near the 38.2% fib) breaks the lower-high trendline
Repeated closes below the ema20 at 0.5662 keep the downtrend sequence intact
US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC Friday could materially shift this read
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC) and Hammack (18:00 UTC) on hike odds, alongside the US yield trend