Lower highs from 0.5749; 0.5650–0.5677 range since Thursday.
The week's dominant move came in NY hours. The strong US flash PMI broke the pair below the 0.5700 round number on Wednesday, and Thursday's NY session extended the slide to the 0.5650 week low. Friday's bounce stalled at the 0.5677 range top, near the 23.6% fib of the 0.5749–0.5650 decline, which leaves a 0.5650–0.5677 range with the lower highs intact. Sunday's open gapped below the 0.5662 friday close, and price is back on the week low under EMA(20), with RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 0.5650, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5662, 0.5677, 0.5700
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5650 week low confirms a lower-low and opens the path to the 0.5600 psych level
Recovery above the 0.5662 friday close fills the weekend gap and puts price back inside the range
Close above the 0.5677 range top breaks the lower-highs sequence; 0.5700 round number is the next cap
RBA decision Tue and US ADP/PCE Wed could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.5749, base at 0.5650 tested repeatedly.
Lower highs have formed since Tuesday's London peak at 0.5749. The dominant leg came in Wednesday's NY session, when strong US flash PMIs knocked the pair through the 0.5700 round number, and Thursday's NY hours extended it to the 0.5650 week low. Friday's bounce stalled at the 0.5677 fri high, near the 23.6% fib of the week's drop, and the new week opened with a gap under the 0.5662 fri close. That leaves price below ema20 and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 39 as the week low is probed again.
Support: 0.5650, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56623, 0.56774, 0.5700
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5650 week low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 0.5600 range floor
Gap fill back above the 0.5662 fri close and ema20 would ease the downside structure
A break of the 0.5677 fri high clears the lower highs trendline; reclaiming the 0.5700 round number would take out the week drop fib 38.2% area
RBA decision Sep 29 and US ADP/PCE on Sep 30 from 12:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Tuesday, 0.5650–0.5686 range since Wednesday.
Lower highs since Tuesday's London high at 0.5749 define the week's decline. The break below 0.5700 came in Wednesday's NY session as strong US flash PMIs lifted the dollar. Price has since compressed between 0.5650 and 0.5686: the week low at 0.5650 held four tests across Thursday NY and Friday Asia, and Friday's NY bounce stalled at 0.5677, under the lower-high trendline and near the 23.6% retracement of the week's decline, leaving price just below EMA(20) at 0.5664 with RSI(14) near 45.
Support: 0.5650, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56641, 0.56774, 0.5700
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5650 week low resumes the lower-low sequence and exposes the 0.5600 range floor
A close above the 0.5677 Friday high and the lower-high trendline, then 0.5686, breaks the range top and opens a retest of the 0.5700 break level
Holding under EMA(20) keeps the 0.5650–0.5686 range capped from above
RBA decision Sep 29 and US ADP/GDP/PCE on Sep 30 could materially shift this read