21:04 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stalling near lows · RSI 37 · price 0.56623
Lower highs and lower lows since early-Sep, now basing in a tight 0.5650-0.5686 box.
The lower-high sequence from 0.5902 through 0.5835 and the 0.5749 lower high remains intact. Wednesday's strong US flash PMI broke the pair below the 0.5700 round number. Since then price has held a triple low at 0.5650, and bounces have stalled at 0.5686, near the 38.2% fib of the 0.5749-0.5650 leg. ATR(14) has compressed to roughly 18 pips, with price below both EMAs, so the pair is coiling rather than extending.
Support: 0.5650, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5686, 0.5700, 0.5749
What it said to watch
- H4 close below the 0.5650 triple low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5600 range floor
- Reclaim of the 38.2% fib at 0.5686 and the 0.5700 round number would break the compression box to the upside
- A move through the 0.5749 lower high and the lower highs trendline invalidates the downtrend read
- US ADP, GDP and PCE on Wed 30 Sep could materially shift this read, as could the RBA decision on Sep 29 through AUD/NZD