0.5649–0.5687 range since Thursday, higher lows off Monday's week low.
Wednesday's strong US flash PMIs drove the pair from 0.5724 through 0.5700. Thursday and Friday then made repeated tests of 0.5650, and Monday's Asia gap lower to the 0.5649 week low was bought back on the US-China truce extension. Monday's NY-session push cleared the 0.5677 Friday high, which sits at the 38.2% retracement of the Wed–Mon drop, but was rejected at 0.5687, the Monday high near the 50% level. Price has rotated back to a flat EMA(20)/EMA(50) around 0.5666 with RSI(14) in the mid-50s, keeping the range intact above a line of higher lows.
Support: 0.5657, 0.5649
Resistance: 0.5677, 0.5687, 0.5700
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5657 higher low breaks the higher-lows line and puts the 0.5649 week low back in play
H1 close above the 0.5687 monday high clears the 50% retracement, with 0.5700 psych and the old range floor above
Failure to reclaim the 0.5677 friday high keeps the range contained below the 38.2% retracement
US JOLTS and Fedspeak from Tue 14:00 UTC, then ADP Wed 12:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
RBA decision Sep 29 may move the kiwi via AUD/NZD
22:04 UTC
Downtrend paused, basing in a tight range · RSI 52 · price 0.56656
Post-impulse range 0.5649–0.5687 since Thursday, flat EMAs.
Wednesday's NY-hours slide on strong US flash PMIs took the pair from the 0.5728 Wed high through the 0.5700 psych level, and since Thursday it has held a 0.5649–0.5687 range with three tests of the range floor near 0.5650. Monday bounced off the floor in the Asia session after the US-China truce extension, but the NY push stalled at the 0.5687 range top, just under the 50% fib of the week's drop, and faded back to a flat EMA(20)/EMA(50) cluster near 0.5666. RSI(14) sits near 52, consistent with the range.
Support: 0.5655, 0.5649, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.5687, 0.5700, 0.5728
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5687 range top clears the 50% fib and brings the 0.5700 psych level back into view
Failure to hold the 0.5655 weekly open and the 0.5649 range floor confirms a lower low and exposes the 0.5626 june swing
A return above 0.5700 would put the 0.5728 wed high, the origin of this week's breakdown, back in play
RBA decision on Sep 29, then Tuesday's JOLTS, Consumer Confidence and Fedspeak from 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read ahead of Wednesday's ADP
NZDUSD has held a 0.5650–0.5687 range since Wednesday's NY-session drop on the strong US flash PMI. The range floor has absorbed four tests, including Monday's Asia-session false break to 0.5649, and price sits about 10 pips above the weekly open at 0.5655. Monday's NY spike to the 0.5687 range top came on the US-China truce headlines but was rejected below the 50% retrace of the Wed–Mon selloff; price is back just under a flat EMA(20) near 0.5666, with RSI(14) at 50.
Support: 0.56546, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.56664, 0.56874, 0.5700
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5687 range top opens the 0.5700 psych level and the 50% retrace of the Wed–Mon selloff
Sustained trade back above EMA(20) at 0.5666 would shift price to the upper half of the range
Loss of the weekly open at 0.5655 puts the 0.5650 range floor back in focus; an H1 close below it breaks the range toward 0.5626
RBA decision Tue, then US JOLTS (14:00 UTC) and Waller (19:00 UTC); ADP Wed could materially shift this read
Range 0.5649–0.5687 since Wednesday's breakdown; higher lows today.
Wednesday's NY-session slide after the strong US flash PMI broke 0.5700. NZDUSD has since been boxed between the 0.5649 week low and the 0.5687 day high, with the 0.5650 area tested four times. Monday's higher lows off the week low fed a NY-hours push through the fib 38.2 of the week's drop at 0.5681 on US-China truce headlines, but supply capped it at 0.5687 and price has slipped back onto a converged EMA(20)/EMA(50) near 0.5667, with RSI(14) flat around 52.
Support: 0.56569, 0.56489, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56805, 0.56874, 0.5700
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5687 day high opens the 0.5700 psych level and the 50% retrace of the week's drop near 0.5690
Break of the higher-low trendline near 0.5657 returns focus to the 0.5649 week low
Close below the 0.5649 week low ends the range read and exposes 0.5626 and the 0.5600 april floor
RBA decision Tue, then JOLTS 14:00 UTC and Waller 19:00 UTC Tue, could materially shift this read; ADP follows Wed 12:15 UTC
19:04 UTC
Downtrend stalled, basing in a range · RSI 54 · price 0.56686
0.5649–0.5687 range after Wednesday's selloff; Monday higher lows capped at range top.
The week's dominant move came during NY hours on Wednesday. The US flash PMI beat drove a ~70-pip slide from 0.5730 toward 0.5650. Since Thursday the pair has held a 0.5649–0.5687 range, with the floor tested three times and Sunday's gap-down open printing the week low. Monday's recovery built higher lows from the Asia session, but a NY-session spike to the range top on Iran sanctions-relief headlines faded back below the ema50 near 0.5679, stalling between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the week's drop, while price holds just above the ema20 with RSI(14) near 54.
Support: 0.5667, 0.5655, 0.5649
Resistance: 0.5679, 0.5687, 0.5700
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5687 range top opens the 50% fib near 0.5690 and the 0.5700 psych level
Loss of the higher-low trendline and the weekly open at 0.5655 puts the 0.5649 week low back in play; a break resumes the downtrend toward 0.5626
Repeated rejection below the ema50 at 0.5679 keeps the range read intact
RBA decision Tuesday, then JOLTS and the Williams/Waller Fedspeak slate, could materially shift this read
ADP on Wednesday at 12:15 UTC and US PCE later in the week are the larger range-break risks
Triple-tested floor at 0.5649-0.5650; Monday higher lows under 0.5687 neckline.
The week's dominant move came in Wednesday's NY session, when the US flash PMI beat pushed the pair from above 0.5720 to 0.5660. Since then the 0.5649-0.5650 week low has held on three tests, on Thursday, on Friday and after Monday's gap-lower Asian open. Monday has printed a run of higher lows along a rising trendline and reclaimed the ema20. The NY session then spiked to a 0.5687 week high just under the 50% fib of the week's decline before fading to 0.5675. RSI(14) near 56 is mid-range, consistent with a base forming rather than a confirmed turn.
Support: 0.5667, 0.5653, 0.5649
Resistance: 0.5687, 0.5700
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5687 week high clears the triple bottom neckline and brings the 0.5700 round number into play
Loss of the ema20 and the rising trendline puts the 0.5653 higher low back in focus
Break below the 0.5649 week low negates the triple bottom and resumes the downtrend
RBA decision Tue Sep 29, plus JOLTS (14:00 UTC) and Williams/Waller Fedspeak on Tuesday, could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 0.5649 inside a 0.5650–0.5687 range.
The week's dominant leg came in Wednesday's NY session, when the strong US flash PMI took the pair from 0.5733 toward 0.5650. That week low has held through Thursday and Friday, and again after Monday's Asia-session sweep to 0.5649. Monday's rebound on the US-China truce extension printed a higher low at 0.5653 during London and lifted price back above EMA(20). The NY-session spike to 0.5687 then met rejection at the prior highs, just shy of the 50% fib of the week's decline.
Support: 0.5666, 0.5653, 0.5649
Resistance: 0.5687, 0.5700
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5687 prior highs opens the 0.5700 round number and breaks the range read
A drop back below ema20 and the 0.5653 higher low puts the 0.5649 week low back in play; a break there resumes the downtrend toward 0.5626
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC, then Tuesday's JOLTS and heavy Fedspeak, could materially shift this read
RBA decision Tuesday adds cross-driven volatility to NZD
Range 0.5649-0.5686 with lower highs pressing a flat base.
Wednesday's beat in the US flash PMI drove the NY-session break below 0.5700. Since Thursday the pair has held a 0.5649-0.5686 range, with lows near 0.5650 tested three times and a descending line of lower highs pressing from above. Monday gapped lower at the weekly open of 0.5655 and printed a week low of 0.5649 in the Asia session. The rebound, helped by the US-China truce extension, stalled at the Monday high of 0.5674 twice, near the 23.6% fib of the drop, and price is sitting on flat EMA(20)/EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 50.
Support: 0.56546, 0.56489, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.56739, 0.56774, 0.5700
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the week low of 0.5649 breaks the flat base and opens the June low at 0.5626
A close above the Monday high of 0.5674 and the lower-highs line, then the Friday high of 0.5677, would expose the 0.5700 round number
Loss of the weekly open at 0.5655 puts the range floor back in play
Fed's Cook today 17:15 UTC, plus Tuesday's JOLTS 14:00 UTC and heavy Fedspeak, could materially shift this read
RBA decision Tuesday may move NZD crosses and spill into this pair
0.5649–0.5677 range since Thursday, lower highs meeting higher lows.
The week's dominant move came during NY hours on Wednesday, after the US flash PMI beat, and took the pair from 0.5733 into the 0.5650 range base, where it has been held in a 0.5649–0.5677 consolidation since Thursday. Monday's gap lower briefly broke under 0.5650 in the Asia session before recovering to 0.5674. A London dip then held the 0.5653 London low, but the NY-open push was rejected at the range top, leaving price back under EMA(20) near 0.5664 with RSI(14) at 46. Lower highs from Friday's 0.5677 and higher lows since Monday's 0.5649 are tightening the range, with the move still capped below the 23.6% level of the downtrend fib at 0.5669.
Support: 0.5653, 0.5649
Resistance: 0.5664, 0.5675, 0.5700
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5649 range base resumes the downtrend and turns Monday's false break into a lower low
Failure to hold the 0.5653 London low breaks the higher-lows line
A close above the 0.5675 range top clears the lower-highs line and opens the 0.5700 round number, near the 38.2% level of the downtrend fib
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC today, then JOLTS (Tue 14:00 UTC) and the RBA decision, could materially shift this read
14:04 UTC
Range after mid-week sell-off, momentum neutral · RSI 53 · price 0.5668
0.5650–0.5677 range since Thursday; Monday higher low at 0.5653.
Wednesday's US flash PMI beat drove the NY-session sell-off from 0.5733 through 0.5700. Since Thursday the pair has held a 0.5650–0.5677 range. The range floor was tested four times, including Monday's Asia low at 0.5649, and Monday's London dip held a higher low at 0.5653 as the US-China truce extension lent modest support. Price is back above a flattening EMA(20) near 0.5665 and sits on the 23.6% retracement of the sell-off, while RSI(14) at 53 shows no directional pressure and the range top keeps capping each push.
Support: 0.5665, 0.5653, 0.5649
Resistance: 0.5676, 0.5700
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5676 range top opens the path to the 0.5700 round number and the 38.2% sell-off retracement near 0.5681
Break below the 0.5653 higher low and the Monday rising trendline returns focus to the 0.5649 range floor
Failure to hold the 0.5649 range floor confirms a lower-low below the Thursday–Monday base toward 0.5626
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC today, then JOLTS 14:00 UTC and the RBA decision on Tuesday, could materially shift this read
13:04 UTC
Downtrend, stalled in a tightening range · RSI 49 · price 0.56634
Lower highs pressing a flat 0.5650 base since Wednesday's breakdown.
NZDUSD has been boxed in 0.5649–0.5686 since Wednesday's NY-session breakdown on the strong US flash PMI beat. Lower highs run from the 0.5686 thu high through Friday's 0.5677 to today's 0.5674 monday high, pressing against a flat base at the 0.5649 week low. Monday's Asia-session dip below 0.5650 was reclaimed, but London faded the bounce to the 0.5653 london low. Price now sits on EMA(20) at 0.5663 and just under EMA(50) near 0.5667, with RSI(14) flat at 49 and the rebound still short of the 23.6% retracement of the Tuesday-to-Monday decline, in line with a firm USD on >70% Fed October hike odds.
Support: 0.5653, 0.5649, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5674, 0.5686, 0.5700
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5649 week low turns the false break into a range break, with 0.5626 and the 0.5600 april floor next
H1 close above the lower-highs trendline and the 0.5674 monday high opens the 0.5686 thu high and 0.5700 psych
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC today and US JOLTS Tue 14:00 UTC (f/c 7.23M) could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 0.5653 london low keeps the lower-highs sequence intact into the NY session
The week's dominant move came in NY hours on Wednesday. Strong US flash PMIs broke 0.5700 and extended the slide from 0.5736 toward 0.5650. Since Thursday the pair has compressed into a 0.5649–0.5677 range, with lower highs at 0.5686, 0.5684, the 0.5677 friday high and the 0.5674 monday high pressing on a flat floor; Monday's Asia session printed only a marginal false break to a new week low at 0.5649 before demand stepped back in. Price is pinned to a flat EMA(20)/EMA(50) with RSI(14) in the mid-50s, and the London low at 0.5653 is holding as the US-China truce tempers the Fed-driven USD bid.
Support: 0.5653, 0.5649, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5674, 0.5677, 0.5700
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5649 week low breaks the range floor and exposes the 0.5600 psych level
Failure to hold the 0.5653 london low keeps pressure on the week low
Close above the lower highs trendline and the 0.5674 monday high / 0.5677 friday high invalidates the compression read; 0.5700 round number and the fib 38.2% near 0.5682 sit above
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC and Cook at 17:15 UTC today could shift October hike pricing and this read
JOLTS and the RBA decision on Tuesday, then US PCE and NFP on Friday, are the week's larger structural risks
Lower highs capping a 0.5650–0.5677 range since Thursday.
The strong US flash PMIs drove Wednesday's NY-session break below 0.5700, and the decline from Tuesday's 0.5736 high has since flattened into a range above 0.5650. Buyers absorbed three tests there: Thursday, Friday and Monday's gap-lower open to a fresh week low at 0.5649. The Asia session bounce stalled at the asia high of 0.5674, just above the 23.6% retracement of the decline and beneath the lower highs trendline. Price has faded from late Asia into London, back below the ema20 near 0.5663. It now sits just above the london low at 0.5653, with RSI(14) slipping under 50.
Support: 0.5653, 0.5649, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5663, 0.5674, 0.5700
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5649 week low breaks the range base and exposes the 0.5600 range floor.
Close above the 0.5674 asia high and the lower highs trendline shifts focus to the 0.5700 psych level.
Failure to reclaim the ema20 at 0.5663 keeps the range capped by lower highs.
Fed's Bowman (12:15 UTC) and Cook (17:15 UTC) today, then RBA and US JOLTS on Tuesday, could materially shift this read.
10:03 UTC
Downtrend, stalled into a range · RSI 46 · price 0.56593
Flat 0.5650 floor under slightly lower highs since Thursday.
Wednesday's NY-session drop on the strong US flash PMIs took the pair from above 0.5700 to 0.5660. Since Thursday it has held a 0.5650-0.5677 range, with a flat range floor tested four times and lower highs forming beneath the decline fib 23.6% near 0.5670. Monday opened with a gap below Friday's 0.5662 prior close, bounced in the Asia session from 0.5649 to a 0.5674 week high, then faded into London back under EMA(20), with RSI(14) near 46 as the USD bid on Fed-hike pricing persists.
Support: 0.56546, 0.5649, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56623, 0.56739, 0.5700
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5650 range floor confirms a lower-low and opens the path to the 0.5600 psych level
Failure to hold the 0.5655 week open keeps pressure on the range floor
Recovery above the 0.5662 prior close and 0.5674 week high breaks the lower-highs trendline; 0.5700 round number sits above
Fed's Bowman (12:15 UTC) and Cook (17:15 UTC) today, then the RBA decision Tuesday, could materially shift this read
0.5650–0.5686 range after Wednesday breakdown, lower highs intact.
Wednesday's NY-session leg lower followed the US flash PMI beat and hawkish Fedspeak. It took the pair through 0.5700 psych, and price has since been boxed between 0.5650 and the 0.5686 range top, with a series of lower highs capping each bounce. Monday's Asia session pushed briefly below the Thursday–Friday floor to a 0.5649 week low. That move reversed, helped by the US-China truce extension, and price reclaimed the weekly open and ema20 into London. The bounce stalled at the 0.5674 monday high, near the 23.6% fib of the Tue–Mon drop, with RSI(14) flat around 51.
Support: 0.5665, 0.56546, 0.56489
Resistance: 0.56739, 0.5686, 0.5700
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5686 range top (38.2% fib) and the lower highs trendline would break the sequence of lower highs and open 0.5700 psych
Failure back below the weekly open and a close under the 0.5649 week low would turn Monday's false break into a fresh lower-low
Rejection at the 0.5674 monday high keeps price pinned inside the range with ema20 at 0.5665 as first support
RBA decision Tue and US JOLTS/Fedspeak Tue, then ADP, GDP and PCE Wed 12:15–12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs pressing into a flat 0.5649–0.5650 floor.
NZDUSD has held a 0.5650–0.5686 range since the NY-session slide on Wednesday's strong US flash PMIs. Lows on Thursday, Friday and Monday all stalled at the 0.5649–0.5650 range floor, while each rally has printed a lower high. Monday's Asia session lifted price back above the weekly open and EMA(20) on the US-China truce extension, into the friday high at 0.5677, the lower-highs line and the 23.6% retracement of the week decline, with RSI(14) recovering to ~58 from 36.
Support: 0.5665, 0.5655, 0.5649
Resistance: 0.5677, 0.5686, 0.5700
What it said to watch
H1 close above the friday high 0.5677 and the lower-highs line puts the 0.5686 range top (38.2% of the week decline) in play, with 0.5700 psych and the 50% level just above
Rejection at 0.5677 and a slip back below EMA(20) and the 0.5655 weekly open returns price to the 0.5649 range floor; a close below it ends the base and resumes the lower-low sequence
RBA decision Tuesday, JOLTS and Fed speakers Tuesday, then ADP and PCE Wednesday could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.5749, basing in 0.5650–0.5677 range.
The week's decline from Tuesday's 0.5749 peak was driven by NY hours, first by Wednesday's slide through 0.5700 on strong US flash PMIs and hawkish Fed repricing, then by Thursday's extension to 0.5650. Since then price has held a 0.5650–0.5677 range under a lower-highs line from the thu high at 0.5686 to the friday high at 0.5677. Sunday's open gapped below Friday's 0.5662 close and briefly printed a new week low at 0.5649 before the Asia session reclaimed 0.5661, sitting on a flat EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 0.5649, 0.5626, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5677, 0.5686, 0.5700
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5649 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5626 june low and the 0.5600 range floor
H1 close above the 0.5677 friday high breaks the lower-highs line and exposes the 0.5686 thu high and 0.5700 round number
RBA decision Tue Sep 29 could shift the read via AUD/NZD cross flows
US ADP and PCE on Wed (12:15/12:30 UTC) are the main risk to the 0.5650–0.5677 range
Lower highs from 0.5749 over a flat 0.5650 base, Monday low marginally through it.
The dominant move came in Wednesday's NY session, when strong US flash PMIs and hawkish Fed repricing broke 0.5700 and pushed the pair to 0.5660. Since then the pair has printed lower highs at 0.5684 and the 0.5677 friday high. Demand has absorbed four tests of the 0.5650 base since Thursday's NY session, and Monday's gap-down open below the 0.5662 prior close has printed a marginal new low at 0.5649. Price sits under EMA(20) near 0.5660, and RSI(14) is near 36 without reaching oversold.
Support: 0.5649, 0.5626, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5662, 0.5677, 0.5700
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 0.5650 base confirms the range break and exposes the 0.5626 june low, then the 0.5600 range floor
Recovery above the 0.5662 prior close and EMA(20) would neutralise Monday's gap-down, with the 0.5677 friday high and the lower highs line as the next caps
Only a move back above 0.5700 psych would retrace the week-drop fib beyond the 38.2% (~0.5687)
RBA decision Tue (expected +25bp) could weigh on NZD via AUD/NZD
US JOLTS Tue, then ADP and PCE Wed 12:15–12:30 UTC could materially shift this read