Early Asia range 0.5603–0.5621 after weekend gap fill.
Friday's spike on the US payrolls miss to the 0.5643 nfp high was rejected, with NY then capped at 0.5631 (post-nfp cap) and sliding to the 0.5606 ny low. Early Asia opened with a ~5-pip gap down to the 0.5603 open low, filled it to the 0.5621 session high, and now sits on flat EMA20/50 just above the 50% retrace of that rally at 0.5612.
Support: 0.56119, 0.5606, 0.56029
Resistance: 0.56208, 0.5631, 0.56427
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 50% retrace at 0.5612 exposes the ny low at 0.5606
M15 close above the 0.5621 session high opens the post-nfp cap at 0.5631
Break below the 0.5603 open low would reverse the gap fill and print a lower low toward 0.5600
US ISM Services PMI (Mon 14:00 UTC, f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
Weekend gap filled; false break of Friday low, pausing under 0.5621.
The week opened with a gap below Friday's 0.5613 close, and a dip to the 0.5603 Sunday low briefly broke Friday's 0.5606 NY low before reversing. The early Asia session leg then filled the gap to the 0.5621 Asia high, and the pullback low at 0.5615 is holding at roughly a 30% retracement of that Asia leg. Overhead, Friday's post-NFP fade from the 0.5643 spike left the 0.5624 pre-NFP high and the 0.5631 post-NFP top as supply.
Support: 0.56152, 0.56129, 0.56029
Resistance: 0.56208, 0.56237, 0.5631
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5613 Friday close reopens the gap and turns the focus to the 0.5603 Sunday low
Close above the 0.5621 Asia high exposes the 0.5624 pre-NFP high, then the 0.5631 post-NFP top
Failure to hold the 0.5615 pullback low puts the 50–61.8% Asia leg fib at 0.5612–0.5610 in play
Liquidity is thin in early Asia, and US ISM Services (Mon 14:00 UTC) sits beyond this window but could reprice the post-NFP USD move
23:17 UTC
Sideways after post-NFP fade · RSI 51 · price 0.56161
Sunday gap filled, capped below Friday london high.
Thin early-Asia open gapped NZDUSD down to a 0.5603 sunday low, then filled the gap to a 0.5621 sunday high. That high stalled near the 38.2% fib of Friday's post-NFP fade from 0.5643, which came after the weak US payrolls print. Price sits at 0.5616, just above EMA20/50, with RSI(14) near 51 and ATR about 3.5 pips, mid-range between the friday low at 0.5606 and Friday's london high at 0.5624.
Support: 0.56062, 0.56029, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56208, 0.56237, 0.5631
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5624 london high exposes the 0.5631 nfp range top
Failure to hold the 0.5606 friday low and 0.5603 sunday low brings the 0.5600 round number into play
Low Sunday liquidity: the sunday high may not hold as a reference once Asia session volume builds
US ISM Services (Mon 14:00 UTC) and NZIER QSBO (Mon 21:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
23:04 UTC
Short-term rebound, stalling under session high · RSI 55 · price 0.5618
Monday gap below Friday close filled; higher low at 0.5603, pausing under 0.5621.
Early Asia session: Monday opened about 5 pips below Friday's 0.5613 close, held the 0.5603 open low and reversed to a 0.5621 session high. Price is now pausing just under that level with RSI(14) near 55. Friday's NFP-miss spike to 0.5643 was rejected and faded to the 0.5606 NY low, leaving the London high at 0.5624 and the post-NFP high near 0.5631 as the caps above.
Support: 0.56129, 0.56029, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.56208, 0.56237, 0.5631
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5621 session high exposes the 0.5624 London high, then the 0.5631 post-NFP high
A slip back below the 0.5613 Friday close, near the 50% retrace of the open leg, reopens the 0.5603 open low; failure there brings the 0.5586 Friday low back into view
US ISM Services (Mon 14:00 UTC) and NZIER QSBO (Mon 21:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Weekly open gap down filled; open low swept and reclaimed.
Early Asia session: the weekly open gapped below the Friday close at 0.5613, swept under the Friday NY low to an open low of 0.5603, then reversed through the gap to a 0.5621 session high. Price now sits on the 38.2% retrace of the drop from the 0.5643 NFP-miss spike high to the open low, in thin liquidity. Friday's payroll spike faded from the 0.5631 NFP range top back to the NY low.
Support: 0.56129, 0.56057, 0.56029
Resistance: 0.56208, 0.56237, 0.5631
What it said to watch
Hold above the 0.5613 Friday close keeps the gap fill intact; slipping back below it reopens the 0.5606 NY low
Break of the 0.5603 open low would turn the sweep into a lower-low
M15 close above the 0.5624 Friday London high exposes the 0.5631 NFP range top
Failure at the 0.5621 session high and 38.2% fib would leave the bounce as a gap-fill only
US ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read as the first test of the NFP miss
Weekly open gap down to 0.5603 reversed, Friday close reclaimed.
Friday's NFP miss (29K vs 90K) spiked the pair to the 0.5643 nfp spike high before a full fade into the 0.5606 fri low. The weekly open gapped down to the 0.5603 sunday low, then a second gap higher reclaimed the 0.5613 fri close. Early Asia session is now pressing 0.5620, near the 38.2% of that move, with ATR under 4 pips on thin liquidity.
Support: 0.56129, 0.5606, 0.56029
Resistance: 0.56237, 0.5631, 0.56427
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5624 london high and 50% retrace opens the 0.5631 post-nfp top
Slip back below the 0.5613 fri close fills the gap-up and puts the 0.5606 fri low and 0.5603 sunday low back in play
Thin Asia-open liquidity; gap risk distorts early bars
US ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
22:17 UTC
Recovering from Sunday gap, capped below London high · RSI 61 · price 0.56188
Gap-down open reclaimed, testing Sunday high inside Friday's post-NFP range.
Sunday's open gapped below the 0.5613 Friday close to a 0.5603 Sunday low. Thin early-Asia bids then lifted price back to the 0.5619 Sunday high, near the 38.2% of the NFP fade fib. Friday's spike to 0.5643 on the payrolls miss was rejected and fully unwound into a double low near 0.5606, leaving the 0.5624 London high and the 0.5631 post-NFP top overhead.
Support: 0.5613, 0.5606, 0.5603
Resistance: 0.5619, 0.5624, 0.5631
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5624 london high reclaims the 50% of the nfp fade fib and exposes the 0.5631 post-nfp top
Failure to hold the 0.5613 friday close puts the 0.5606 double low and 0.5603 sunday low back in play, with 0.5600 psych below
Early-Asia liquidity is thin; moves off the Sunday gap can reverse quickly
US ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC is the next major USD risk to this read
22:05 UTC
Post-NFP fade, now ranging · RSI 54 · price 0.56145
0.5606–0.5618 range under lower highs; Sunday gap down reclaimed.
The soft US payrolls print drove a spike to 0.5643, but the move faded into a 0.5606–0.5618 NY range by Friday's close. The Sunday open gapped down and dipped through the 0.5607 NY floor to a 0.5603 Sunday low, then reclaimed Friday's 0.5613 close in thin early Asia trade. Price sits just above EMA20/EMA50 with RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 0.56065, 0.56029, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56177, 0.5631, 0.56427
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.5618 Fri NY high opens the 38.2–50% fib zone at 0.5618–0.5623, then the 0.5631 NFP range top
Slip back under the 0.5607 NY floor puts the 0.5603 Sunday low and 0.5600 psych back in play
Thin Asia session liquidity after the Sunday open; US ISM Services, Mon 14:00 UTC, could reset the range read
Lower highs since 0.5631; weekend gap below Friday close, thin early-Asia trade.
The weak US payrolls print spiked NZDUSD to 0.5643, but the spike was rejected and the post-NFP high at 0.5631 capped NY. Price then slid to 0.5606 and the late-Friday swing high at 0.5618 held just under the 50% fib. Sunday's open gapped below the 0.5613 Friday close and printed a 0.5603 Sunday low in thin trade, with RSI(14) near 40 and price under both EMAs.
Support: 0.56029, 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.56129, 0.56177, 0.5631
What it said to watch
Gap fill to the 0.5613 Friday close is the first test; a close above the 0.5618 swing high breaks the lower highs trendline
Failure to hold the 0.5603 Sunday low exposes the 0.5600 psych level, then the 0.5586 Friday low
Reclaiming the 0.5631 post-NFP high would invalidate the intraday downtrend read
Sunday liquidity is thin. US ISM Services (Mon 14:00 UTC) and NZIER QSBO (Mon 21:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs since NFP spike; weekly open gapped below Friday close.
Friday's NFP miss spiked the pair to 0.5643, but the move was rejected within the bar. Price then made lower highs at the 0.5631 NFP range high and 0.5618 before the Sunday open gapped 6 pips below the 0.5613 Friday close. In thin early-Asia trade it has slipped to 0.5604, below the 61.8% retrace of the Friday-low-to-NFP leg (0.5608) and just above the 0.5600 psych level.
Support: 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.56129, 0.56177, 0.5631
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.5600 psych exposes the 0.5586 friday low
Gap fill back to 0.5613 would neutralise the weekend-open weakness
Break above the 0.5618 lower high and lower-highs line invalidates the post-NFP fade read
Thin Sunday liquidity makes early-Asia moves unreliable until the Asia session fills in
US ISM Services (Mon 14:00 UTC) and NZIER QSBO (Mon 21:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Sunday's open gapped about 6 pips below the 0.5613 Friday close. That put price straight onto the 0.5606 swing low, which held three times during Friday's NY hours. The payroll-miss spike to the 0.5643 NFP high was fully faded, leaving a lower-high sequence capped by the 0.5618 NY high. Early Asia liquidity is thin, with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 0.5606, 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.5613, 0.5618, 0.5643
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5613 Friday close fills the weekend gap and neutralises the lower-high read
Failure to hold the 0.5606 swing low exposes the 0.5600 round number and Friday's 0.5586 Asian low
Break above the 0.5618 NY high clears the lower-highs trendline from the NFP fade
US ISM Services (Mon 14:00 UTC) and NZIER QSBO (Mon 21:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
NFP spike rejected, 0.5606–0.5631 range, weekend gap down.
Weekly open gapped down 5 pips to 0.5607, below the 0.5613 fri close and on the 61.8% fib of the asia low to nfp high move. Friday's weak-payrolls spike to the 0.5643 nfp high was rejected inside the bar. The pair then held a 0.5631 nfp shelf before NY faded it back to the 0.5606 ny low; the late bounce stalled at 0.5618.
Support: 0.5606, 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.5613, 0.5631, 0.5643
What it said to watch
Gap fill back above the 0.5613 fri close would neutralise the soft open
M15 close below the 0.5606 ny low exposes the 0.5600 psych level and the 0.5586 asia low
Recovery through the 0.5631 nfp shelf reopens a test of the 0.5643 nfp high
Thin early-Asia liquidity after the gap; US ISM Services (Mon 14:00 UTC) is the next scheduled driver