Higher lows from 0.5580, break above 0.5600 cap being retested.
After the safe-haven USD bid pushed NZD/USD to a 0.5580 Monday low, the 0.5600 handle capped price three times through London and NY. It gave way early in the Asia session, printing a 0.5604 Asian high, and the last hour has retested 0.5600 from above. Higher lows at 0.5580 and 0.5585 remain intact, the 0.5595 Asian low sits just below, and ATR(14) is near 3 pips in thin Asian trade.
Support: 0.55954, 0.55848, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.5604, 0.56188
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5595 asian low puts price back inside Monday's sub-0.5600 range
Clearance of the 0.5604 asian high opens the 0.5619 monday high
Break of the 0.5585 higher low and trendline unwinds the recovery from the 0.5580 monday low
US 10y yield moves and Fedspeak (Williams, Bowman) later Tuesday remain the main external drivers
23:32 UTC
Recovering off lows, higher lows since NY · RSI 61 · price 0.5602
Higher-low chain from 0.5580, early-Asia push through 0.5600.
USD safe-haven demand drove NZD into the 0.5580 NY low, then a higher low at 0.5585 formed. Early Asia lifted price through the 0.5600 round number that capped both the London and NY highs, printing a 0.5604 session high, and the level held on the retest. RSI(14) is near 61 and ATR is about 3 pips, typical of thin Asia trade.
Support: 0.5600, 0.5585, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5604, 0.5619
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5600 round number fails the breakout and returns price to the 0.5585–0.5600 range
Loss of the 0.5585 higher low exposes the 0.5580 NY low (Nov-2025 low)
Close above the 0.5604 session high opens the 0.5619 monday high
Tuesday's ADP (12:15 UTC) and Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) could shift USD demand and this read
23:17 UTC
Rebound off day low, stalling at 0.5600 · RSI 59 · price 0.56004
Higher low at 0.5585; capped at 0.5600–0.5604.
After the Asia-to-NY selloff hit a 0.5580 day low near the NY open, NZDUSD rebounded and printed a 0.5585 higher low, despite the firm USD backdrop. The post-rollover push after the NZIER 43% print tagged a 0.5604 session high, then slipped back to 0.5600, the fourth cap in the 0.5600–0.5604 band since London. Early Asia trade is thin, with ATR(14) near 3 pips.
Support: 0.55954, 0.55848, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.5604, 0.56188
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5604 session high exposes Monday's 0.5619 asian high
Loss of the 0.5595 rollover low (38.2% fib) puts the 0.5585 higher low and the higher low line back in play
A break of the 0.5580 day low negates the higher-low structure and reopens the selloff
US 10y yields near 5.34% and Fed's Williams/Bowman later Tuesday could materially shift this read
23:04 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since NY · RSI 57 · price 0.56002
Higher-low chain off 0.5580, retesting broken 0.5600 cap.
Demand absorbed the NY-hours dip to the 0.5580 day low, the Nov-2025 low flagged in the digest. Price has since printed higher lows at 0.5585 and 0.5595, and the post-NZIER pop to a 0.5604 session high cleared the 0.5600 cap that held three times. Early Asia is now retesting 0.5600 on a compressed 3-pip ATR, with the 0.5619 day high from Sunday's open still overhead.
Support: 0.55954, 0.55848, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.5604, 0.56188
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5595 session low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising lows line
Acceptance above the 0.5604 session high opens the path to the 0.5619 day high
Loss of the 0.5585 higher low exposes the 0.5580 day low; the fib 50% retrace sits near 0.5592
ADP and Fed's Williams/Bowman in Tuesday NY hours could materially shift this read
22:47 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows off day low · RSI 61 · price 0.56018
Higher-low chain from 0.5580; 0.5600 cap broken in thin early Asia.
Monday's safe-haven USD bid drove NZD to a 0.5580 day low at the NY open. The rebound since has built a higher low at 0.5585 along a rising trendline, and early Asia has pushed through the 0.5600 psych cap to a 0.5604 session high, though in thin post-rollover trade. RSI(14) is near 61 and ATR(14) about 3 pips, so moves are small.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55848, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.5604, 0.56191
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 0.5600 psych handle would turn the break into a false break
Loss of the 0.5585 higher low and the rising trendline reopens the 0.5580 day low (Nov-2025 low)
An M15 close above the 0.5604 session high exposes the 0.5619 prior high from Monday's open
A 61.8% fib pullback toward 0.5589 that holds keeps the higher-low read intact
Tue ADP 12:15 UTC and Fed's Williams/Bowman 13:05–14:45 UTC could materially shift this read
22:32 UTC
Intraday recovery, pressing range top · RSI 67 · price 0.56027
Higher lows off 0.5580 day low; thin early-Asia push above 0.5600 cap.
Monday's safe-haven USD bid drove a NY-session test of the 0.5580 day low, the Nov-2025 low. Buyers stepped in there, and the NY rally carved higher lows at the 0.5585 ny pullback. Early Asia has now pushed price above the 0.5600 range top, which capped London and NY, to a 0.5604 session high on thin liquidity, with RSI(14) near 67.
Support: 0.5600, 0.5585, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5604, 0.5612
What it said to watch
Acceptance back below the 0.5600 range top would turn the thin-liquidity push into a false break
Holding above the 0.5604 session high exposes Monday's Asia break area at 0.5612
A break of the rising support line and the 0.5585 ny pullback reopens the 0.5580 day low; the 50–61.8% NY rally fib sits at 0.5592–0.5589
Fed's Williams/Bowman and ADP later Tuesday could reset USD tone across the pair
22:17 UTC
Range with tentative upside break, higher lows · RSI 66 · price 0.56014
Higher lows off 0.5580 day low; probing above the 0.5601 London high.
Monday held a 0.5580–0.5601 range as haven-USD demand pushed the pair onto the 0.5580 Nov-2025 low, with the NY-session day low at 0.5580 followed by higher lows at 0.5585 and 0.5595. Early Asia is pressing just above the London high at 0.5601 to a 0.5604 session high in thin post-rollover liquidity, RSI(14) near 66.
Support: 0.5601, 0.5595, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5604, 0.5625
What it said to watch
M15 closes back below the 0.5601 london high would mark the push as a false break back inside the range
Loss of the 0.5595 higher low (fib 38.2%) breaks the rising higher-lows line and refocuses on the 0.5580 day low
Sustained trade above the 0.5604 session high opens the 0.5625 pivot flagged in the digest
Fed's Williams and Bowman in Tuesday's NY session could materially shift this read via haven USD
22:04 UTC
Sideways after NY low, higher lows forming · RSI 54 · price 0.55985
Higher lows from 0.5580 under a flat 0.5600–0.5601 cap.
Haven USD demand drove Monday's NY session to a 0.5580 day low at the Nov-2025 low. Price has since built a higher low at 0.5585, with the 0.5600 cap at the session high rejecting four times. In early Asia a thin rollover spike high at 0.5604 failed back under 0.5600. Price is holding just above the ema20, RSI(14) is neutral near 54 and ATR is about 3.4 pips.
Support: 0.5595, 0.5585, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5601, 0.5604, 0.5621
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.5601 session high breaks the 0.5600 cap and opens the 0.5621 asian high
Holding above the ema20 near 0.5595 keeps the higher-lows trendline intact
A loss of the 0.5585 higher low puts the 0.5580 day low back in play
A break of the 0.5580 day low exposes the 0.5580–0.5470 support zone named in the macro read
Asia reaction to the NZIER 43% confidence jump could test the 0.5604 spike high
21:47 UTC
Sideways after Asia selloff, higher low into NY close · RSI 60 · price 0.55973
0.5580–0.5601 range, higher low at 0.5585, price pressing range top.
The Asia selloff on a haven-USD bid set a 0.5580–0.5601 range. NY tested the 0.5580 day low, at the Nov-2025 low, then printed a higher low at 0.5585. Price sits just under the 0.5601 range top after three rejections there. ATR is about 3 pips in the thin post-NY, rollover hours.
Support: 0.55848, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.56014, 0.56208
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5601 range top breaks the range and opens the asia high at 0.5621
Failure to hold the 0.5585 higher low puts the 0.5580 day low and Nov-2025 low back in play
Rollover spike to 0.5590 at 21:00 UTC is spread noise, not structure
Tue Williams/Bowman Fedspeak and Wed Breman speech could materially shift this read
21:32 UTC
Range-bound after Asia sell-off, NY rebound stalling · RSI 60 · price 0.5596
0.5580–0.5601 range; higher low at 0.5585, range top capping.
Haven USD demand pushed the pair to a 0.5580 session low in NY, a false break of the Asian low that was quickly reclaimed. The 0.5600 range top has since capped four tests, while the 0.5585 higher low keeps the NY rebound intact. Post-NY rollover trade is thin, with RSI(14) neutral near 60 and ATR under 3 pips.
Support: 0.55848, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.56014, 0.56208
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5600 range top opens the 0.5621 asia high
A break of the 0.5585 higher low returns focus to the 0.5580 session low, also the Nov-2025 low
Fed's Williams and Bowman speak during Tuesday NY hours and could shift the USD tone
21:17 UTC
Recovering off session low, capped at 0.5600 · RSI 62 · price 0.55965
Higher lows from 0.5580, flat tops at 0.5600.
Asia sold from the 0.5621 Sunday high, and haven USD demand drove NY to a 0.5580 session low at the Nov-2025 low before a sharp reversal. A higher low at 0.5585 has followed, but the 0.5600 cap has rejected price three times (London, NY, late NY), and the pair is drifting just below it in quiet rollover trade.
Support: 0.55848, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.56014, 0.56208
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5600 cap breaks the flat-top range and exposes the 0.5621 sunday high
Loss of the 0.5585 higher low puts the 0.5580 session low and Nov-2025 low back in play
Fed's Williams (Tue 13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) could materially shift this read via USD
21:07 UTC
Sideways after early-Asia selloff, pressing range top · RSI 66 · price 0.55985
0.5580–0.5601 range since Asia; higher low at 0.5585, highs capped near 0.5600.
Price has ranged 0.5580–0.5601 since the early-Asia slide from the 0.5621 Asia high. NY tagged the 0.5580 Nov-25 low as safe-haven USD demand peaked, rebounded, then set a higher low at 0.5585. The pair is now flat just under the 0.5601 range top, which has seen rejection three times since London.
Support: 0.55848, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.56013, 0.56208
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5601 range top opens the 0.5621 Asia high
Break of the 0.5585 higher low puts the 0.5580 Nov-25 low back in play
NZIER QSBO at 21:00 UTC could jolt the range in thin post-NY trade
20:47 UTC
Range after YTD low test, higher lows forming · RSI 59 · price 0.55981
0.5580–0.5601 range; higher low at 0.5585, session high capping.
Safe-haven USD demand pushed NZDUSD to the 0.5580 ytd low in early NY. Price recovered and set a higher low at 0.5585, but the 0.5601 session high capped rallies three times: in London, early NY and late NY. Price is coiling just under that cap in thin post-NY trade, with RSI(14) near 59 and ATR at roughly 2.6 pips.
Support: 0.55848, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.56014, 0.56208
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5601 session high breaks the three-touch cap and opens the 0.5621 open high from the Sunday open
Failure to hold the 0.5585 higher low exposes the 0.5580 ytd low again
NZIER business confidence at 21:00 UTC (no forecast) lands into a thin pre-Asia tape and could break the range either way
20:32 UTC
Sideways, rebounding inside a range · RSI 64 · price 0.55975
0.5580–0.5601 range, higher low at 0.5585, capped at 0.5600.
After the Asia high at 0.5621, NZD sold off on safe-haven USD demand. London stalled at 0.5601 (london high), and NY probed the 0.5580 ytd low before rebounding. Three rejections at 0.5600 define the range top, and late-NY price sits just under it after a higher low at 0.5585, with ATR compressed under 3 pips.
Support: 0.55848, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.56014, 0.56208
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5601 london high breaks the range top and puts the 0.5621 asia high in view
Loss of the 0.5585 higher low exposes the 0.5580 ytd low again; the rising lows trendline fails with it
NZIER business confidence at 21:00 UTC (~30 min) could materially shift this read at the Asia open
0.5580–0.5601 range, higher low at 0.5585, range top capped three times.
Asia sold off from the 0.5621 Asian high to 0.5584 on safe-haven USD demand. NY briefly undercut that at the 0.5580 session low before reclaiming it, then printed a higher low at 0.5585. Late in NY, price is back at the 0.5600–0.5601 range top for a third time, which rejected the London and early-NY tests, and RSI(14) sits at 68.
Support: 0.55848, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.56014, 0.56208
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5601 range top breaks the three-test cap and opens 0.5621, the Asian high
Loss of the 0.5585 higher low returns price to the range floor
Break below the 0.5580 session low, also the Nov-2025 low, would undo the false break
NZIER business confidence at 21:00 UTC (no forecast) could jolt the range in the next hour
20:04 UTC
Sideways after Asia sell-off, late-NY bounce · RSI 61 · price 0.55986
0.5580–0.5601 range since London, higher low at 0.5585.
The Asia sell-off from the 0.5621 Asia high bottomed near 0.5584. London and NY have since held a 0.5580–0.5601 range, with the NY low tagging the 0.5580 YTD low and a higher low at 0.5585 forming into late NY. Price is pressing the range top near 0.5600 for a fifth time, with safe-haven USD demand capping each rally so far; RSI(14) ~61 and the late-NY leg's 38.2% retracement sits near 0.5595.
Support: 0.55848, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.56014, 0.56208
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5601 range top would end the range read and open the 0.5621 Asia high
Failure to hold the 0.5585 higher low breaks the rising-lows trendline and puts the 0.5580 YTD low back in play
NZIER business confidence at 21:00 UTC, within the next hour, could materially shift this read
19:47 UTC
Intraday recovery from NY low, capped at 0.5600 · RSI 61 · price 0.55977
Higher lows since NY low, triple cap at 0.5600.
NY session swept to 0.5580, the YTD low, on broad safe-haven USD demand before buyers stepped in. A higher low printed at 0.5585, and price rose back into the 0.5600 cap, the 50% retrace of the Asian high–NY low drop, which has now rejected three times today. Late NY, RSI(14) near 61, ATR about 3 pips.
Support: 0.55848, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.56014, 0.56208
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5600 cap breaks the triple rejection and opens the 0.5621 Asian high
Break of the 0.5585 higher low leaves the 0.5580 NY low and YTD low exposed
NZIER QSBO at 21:00 UTC (no forecast) could materially shift this read
19:32 UTC
Recovering intraday after a NY low, capped below 0.5600 · RSI 61 · price 0.55979
Higher lows off 0.5580; 0.5600–0.5601 capped three times.
After the Asia high at 0.5621, Asia slid to 0.5584. NY then broke below that Asian low to 0.5580 (the NY low, at the Nov-2025 low) on the safe-haven USD bid and recovered, a false break now printing a higher low at 0.5585. Late in the NY session, price sits under the 0.5600–0.5601 London high cap, rejected there three times since London, with RSI(14) near 61 and ATR around 3 pips.
Support: 0.55848, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.56014, 0.56208
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5601 London high breaks the three-touch cap and opens 0.5621 Asia high
Loss of the 0.5585 higher low reopens the 0.5580 NY low; a close below it marks a fresh YTD low
NZIER QSBO at 21:00 UTC (no forecast) could reset the session range in thin late-NY trade
19:17 UTC
Sideways after an Asian-session drop, late-NY grind higher · RSI 57 · price 0.55975
0.5580–0.5601 range, higher low at 0.5585 after the ytd low.
NZDUSD has held a 0.5580–0.5601 range since the Asian-session drop. Safe-haven USD demand on bond-market stress took NY to the 0.5580 ytd low before a higher low formed at 0.5585. The late-NY grind to 0.5597 sits just under the range top, which rejected price twice today, with price above the ema20 near 0.5593 and RSI(14) neutral at 57.
Support: 0.5593, 0.5585, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5601, 0.5621
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5601 range top breaks the intraday range; the next reference is the 0.5621 week high
Failure to hold the 0.5585 higher low reopens the 0.5580 ytd low
Slip back below the ema20 at 0.5593 returns price to mid-range
NZIER business confidence at 21:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Range 0.5580–0.5601 since Asia, higher low at 0.5585.
NY tested the 0.5580 Nov-2025 low just before the ISM Services miss. The bounce stalled at the 0.5600–0.5601 range top, rejected for the second time today after London's triple tap, and a higher low at 0.5585 has since carried price back to 0.5595 after London close. Safe-haven USD demand keeps the pair pinned near the day low region, with the range fib's 61.8–78.6% zone now being tested.
Support: 0.55848, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.56014, 0.56208
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5601 range top breaks the day's range and exposes the 0.5621 Asia high
Failure to hold the 0.5585 higher low puts the 0.5580 day low and the YTD-low break back in play
NZIER business confidence at 21:00 UTC (no forecast) could shift this read during the Asian session
18:47 UTC
Range near YTD low, momentum flat · RSI 46 · price 0.55928
0.5580–0.5601 range; higher low at 0.5585 after early-NY false break.
Late NY session. Price is pinned mid-range after the 13:45 UTC dip to the 0.5580 ytd low turned into a false break, then the post-ISM bounce stalled at the 0.5600 round number. A higher low at 0.55848 (ny swing low) sits on rising support while supply caps the late ny high at 0.5594. Price is hugging the EMAs with RSI(14) near 46 and ATR around 3.4 pips, so action is quiet against a firm safe-haven USD backdrop.
Support: 0.55848, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.55939, 0.5600, 0.56208
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5594 late ny high puts the 0.5600 round number back in play; acceptance above it opens the asia high at 0.5621
Loss of the 0.55848 ny swing low breaks rising support and re-exposes the 0.5580 ytd low
A sustained break below the 0.5580 ytd low ends the false-break read
NZIER QSBO at 21:00 UTC tonight (no forecast) could jolt the range
18:32 UTC
Range after NY sweep, momentum neutral · RSI 46 · price 0.55928
0.5580–0.5601 day range, higher low at 0.5585 inside it.
The first hour of NY swept the 0.5580 ytd low before a 20-pip rebound stalled just under the 0.5601 day high. A pullback then held a higher low at 0.5585, above the 61.8% of the NY rally fib, and late NY trade sits mid-range near flat EMAs. Safe-haven USD demand on Eurozone bond stress has kept bounces shallow, and the 0.5621 asian high has not been retested since Asia.
Support: 0.55848, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.56014, 0.56208
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5585 higher low and the rising line from the NY low puts the 0.5580 ytd low back in play
M15 close above the 0.5601 day high opens the path to the 0.5621 asian high
NZIER QSBO at 21:00 UTC (no forecast) could materially shift this read in the Asian session
0.5580–0.5600 range; higher lows and lower highs compressing near 0.5590.
Safe-haven USD demand drove the NY session to a sweep of the 0.5580 YTD low, which was rejected and retraced to the 0.5600 range top. Since then, a 0.5585 swing low and a 0.5594 swing high are compressing price around 0.5590 between higher lows and lower highs, with price flat on EMA20 and RSI(14) at 48 late in NY hours.
Support: 0.55848, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.55935, 0.56014
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5585 swing low exposes the 0.5580 YTD low again; a break there extends the downtrend leg
M15 close above the 0.5594 swing high breaks the lower highs line, with the 0.5600 session high as range top
NZIER QSBO at 21:00 UTC (00:00 broker) could break the compression
0.5580–0.5601 range since the Asian drop, lower highs inside it.
NY session tagged the 0.5580 YTD low before a bounce around ISM that stalled at 0.5600, just under the London high at 0.5601. Price is now at the 61.8% of that NY rebound near 0.5588, with a lower high at 0.5593 and the 0.5585 swing low just below. Safe-haven USD demand from bond-market stress keeps supply capping each bounce.
Support: 0.55848, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.55925, 0.56014
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5585 swing low exposes the 0.5580 ytd low again
A break below the 0.5580 ytd low extends the downtrend out of the range
M15 close above the 0.5593 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline
Reclaim of the 0.5601 london high invalidates the range-top rejection read
NZIER business confidence at 21:00 UTC (~3h, no forecast) could shift this read
0.5580–0.5600 range since the Asia drop, highs stepping lower.
NZD/USD tagged the 0.5580 ytd low around the NY open as safe-haven USD demand persisted. The bounce was rejected at the 0.5600 session high, a lower high under London's 0.5601 and the 0.5621 asia high. Price is back near the 61.8% of the NY bounce at 0.5588, after the late-NY dip held the 0.5584 asia low, with a minor high at 0.5592 capping.
Support: 0.55842, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.55925, 0.5600, 0.56208
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5584 asia low puts the 0.5580 ytd low back in play; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the 0.5592 minor high and then the 0.5600 session high breaks the lower-highs trendline and the range-top rejection
NZIER business confidence at 21:00 UTC tonight could shift this read near the ytd low
Lower highs at 0.5601/0.5600, price back near the day's lows.
The post-ISM bounce off the 0.5580 day low stalled with a rejection at the 0.5600 NY high, a lower high under the 0.5601 London high, as safe-haven USD demand held. Price has slipped back below the 0.5590 breakdown and EMA20. It sits on the 61.8% retrace of the NY rebound, just above the 0.5584 Asian low.
Support: 0.55842, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.5590, 0.5600, 0.56014
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5584 Asian low exposes the 0.5580 day low (Nov-2025 low)
M15 close back above the 0.5590 breakdown reopens the 0.5600 NY high
Close above the 0.5601 London high breaks the lower highs sequence
NZIER business confidence at 21:00 UTC could shift this read
17:06 UTC
Sideways within a broader down day, below EMAs · RSI 47 · price 0.55898
0.5580–0.5601 range since Asia drop, lower high at 0.5600.
NZDUSD has ranged between 0.5580 and 0.5601 since the Asian-session drop. During NY hours price swept the 0.5584 asian low into the 0.5580 day low, which is the Nov-2025 low tested on the risk-off USD bid. The rebound was capped again at the 0.5600 session high. Late in NY, price sits at the 50% fib of that rebound, just above the 0.5588 pullback low, with RSI(14) neutral near 47 and below both EMAs.
Support: 0.5588, 0.5584, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.5621
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5588 pullback low puts the 0.5584 asian low and 0.5580 day low back in play
Break of the 0.5580 day low (Nov-2025 low) would end the range read
Close above the 0.5600 session high opens the 0.5621 asian high
NZIER business confidence at 21:00 UTC (no forecast) could materially shift this read
16:47 UTC
Post-selloff, ranging at lows · RSI 54 · price 0.55907
0.5580–0.5600 intraday range after the Asia selloff; flat highs at the range top.
NY swept below the Asian low (0.5584) to 0.5580, the Nov-2025 low, before a bounce through the ISM release stalled at 0.5600, matching the London high. Price is now back mid-range near 0.5591 after London close, holding above the 0.5588 pullback low, with safe-haven USD demand keeping the pair pinned near the lows.
Support: 0.55883, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56208
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5580 ny low breaks the Nov-2025 low and ends the range read
Acceptance above the 0.5600 range top breaks the lower highs and exposes the 0.5621 asia high
Loss of the 0.5588 pullback low puts the 0.5580 ny low back in focus
NZIER business confidence at 21:00 UTC tonight could shift the read in the Asia session
16:32 UTC
Range near YTD lows, intraday lower highs · RSI 55 · price 0.5590
0.5580–0.5601 range; third cap at 0.5600 today, price at mid-range.
Safe-haven USD demand drove an NY-session flush to 0.5580, the YTD low. Price swept the Asian low and rebounded to the 0.5600 range top. That level capped price for a third time today (London highs at 0.5601). Price has slipped back to 0.5590, the 50% retracement of the bounce, with the 0.5588 swing low just below and the 0.5621 Asian high well overhead.
Support: 0.5588, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.5621
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5580 ytd low confirms a lower low and range break
Close above the 0.5600 range top invalidates the capped-range read and exposes the 0.5621 asian high
Loss of the 0.5588 swing low puts 0.5580 back in focus
NZIER Business Confidence at 21:00 UTC tonight could shift this read near the lows
0.5580–0.5600 range since Asia selloff, lower highs from 0.5621.
Risk-off USD demand drove the Asia-session drop from the 0.5621 sunday high. NY then tagged the 0.5580 session low (Nov 2025 low) and bounced 20 pips, but stalled at the 0.5600 round number, a second rejection after the London high. Late in NY after London close, price sits on the 50% fib of that bounce and the 0.5588 london low.
Support: 0.5588, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.5621
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.5580 session low breaks the range and the Nov 2025 low
Close above the 0.5600 round number reopens the 0.5621 sunday high
Loss of the 0.5588 london low and the 50% fib exposes 0.5580 again
NZIER QSBO at 21:00 UTC (no forecast) could shift the range read
15:47 UTC
Rebound off session low, stalling under 0.5600 · RSI 58 · price 0.5596
London range 0.5587–0.5601; NY break below then reclaim.
NY pushed through the London range floor at 0.5587 to a 0.5580 session low on safe-haven USD demand, testing the Nov-2025 low. Price then reversed after the in-line ISM and has retraced about 75% of the drop from the London high. It is now stalling just under 0.5600–0.5601, with RSI(14) at 58 and the Sunday-open Asia high at 0.5621 untouched.
Support: 0.5587, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5601, 0.5621
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5601 london high exposes the 0.5621 asia high
Slip back below the 0.5587 range floor reopens the 0.5580 session low and the false-break read fails
NZIER business confidence at 21:00 UTC (no forecast) could shift the read into the Asia session
15:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend paused, NY rebound into 0.5600 · RSI 62 · price 0.55974
0.5580–0.5601 range since Asia, higher low attempt off ytd low.
NY session probed the 0.5580 ytd low (0.55801) amid the safe-haven USD bid, then rebounded after the in-line ISM Services print. Price is now retesting 0.5600, where the london high and the 50% fib of the asian high–ytd low drop sit together. The 0.5584 asian low and the 0.5580 NY low form a double bottom with RSI(14) at ~62.
Support: 0.5588, 0.5584, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5601, 0.5621
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5601 london high completes the double bottom and opens 0.5621 asian high
Rejection at the 50% fib / 0.5600 keeps the 0.5580–0.5601 range intact
Failure to hold 0.5588 london low returns focus to the 0.5584 asian low and 0.5580 ytd low
NZIER business confidence at 21:00 UTC tonight could shift this read
15:18 UTC
Downtrend, NY rebound off YTD low · RSI 64 · price 0.55974
Lower highs from Asia high; rebound testing London high.
NZDUSD printed a fresh YTD low at 0.5580 in the first hour of NY, then a rejection of about 20 pips ran through the ISM print as the safe-haven USD bid paused. Price is now pressing the London high at 0.5600–0.5601. The lower-high sequence from the 0.5621 Asia high stays intact below that level. RSI(14) is near 63 and ATR(14) is about 4.3 pips.
Support: 0.55924, 0.55842, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.56014, 0.56208
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5601 london high breaks the lower-high sequence and exposes the 0.5621 asia high
Slip back below the 38.2% fib of the NY rebound at 0.5592 returns focus to the asia low at 0.5584 and the ytd low at 0.5580
NZIER QSBO at 21:00 UTC (no forecast) could reset the read with price sitting near the ytd low
Lower highs from 0.5601 London high; NY false break below Asian low reclaimed, rebound testing 0.5593 lower high.
NY session broke the 0.5584 Asian low and printed a 0.5580 session low at the Nov-2025 low. Price then reclaimed the Asian low into the ISM release. The rebound is now pressing the 0.5593 lower high, which sits at the 61.8% fib of the London high-to-low drop and on the lower-high line, with RSI(14) neutral at 53 and price just under EMA50.
Support: 0.55842, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.5593, 0.55974, 0.56014
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5593 and the lower-high line breaks the sequence of lower highs and opens the 0.5597 swing high, then the 0.5601 London high
Failure back below the 0.5584 Asian low turns the reclaim into a retest of the 0.5580 session low (Nov-2025 low)
NZIER QSBO business confidence at 21:00 UTC (no forecast) could reshape the read near the 0.5580 low
Fed's Williams and Bowman on Tuesday are the next USD risk after today's hot ISM prices-paid print
Lower highs from London high; Asian low swept in NY, rebound to mid-range.
The Asian-session drop set a 0.5584 Asian low. London capped at the 0.5601 London high and NY printed a lower high at 0.5597, then swept the Asian low to a fresh 0.5580 session low as the risk-off USD bid tied to bond-market stress persisted. The rebound through the 14:00 UTC ISM window has price back near the 50% of the London fib, pressing the 0.5593 bounce high with RSI(14) neutral.
Support: 0.55842, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.55926, 0.55974, 0.56014
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5584 Asian low reopens the 0.5580 session low
Close above the 0.5597 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and exposes the 0.5601 London high
Rejection at the 0.5593 bounce high keeps the rebound a 50% London fib retracement within the downtrend
ISM Services follow-through and NZIER Business Confidence at 21:00 UTC could shift this read
Lower highs from London high; NY swept Asian low then rebounded.
NY session pushed under the 0.5584 asian low to a session low at 0.5580, a fresh YTD low on the risk-off USD bid. The ISM bar lifted price back to the 38.2% retracement near 0.5588, just under EMA20. The fib 50% at 0.5591 and the 0.5593 lower high cap the bounce, with the lower-high chain from the 0.5601 london high and its trendline still intact.
Support: 0.55842, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.55908, 0.5593, 0.56014
What it said to watch
ISM Services (14:00 UTC) just printed and was not in the data; follow-through on the reaction could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.5593 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and the trendline from the london high
Failure back below the 0.5584 asian low puts the 0.5580 session low back in play
NZIER Business Confidence at 21:00 UTC, during the Asia session
13:47 UTC
Downtrend, fresh session lows into NY open · RSI 31 · price 0.55815
Lower highs from London high, Asian low broken.
The NY open extended the London fade, breaking the 0.5584 Asian low and the 0.5589–0.5597 midday range to a session low at 0.5581. Risk-off USD demand is keeping the Kiwi below the 0.5585 YTD low. Lower highs from the 0.5601 London high (0.5597 rejection) remain intact, with RSI(14) near 31 and the 50% of the London drop at 0.5591 overhead.
Support: 0.55812, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.55842, 0.55974, 0.56014
What it said to watch
ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55) could materially shift this read within the next bar
Break below the 0.5580 round number extends the downtrend into fresh YTD lows
M15 close back above the 0.5584 Asian low would turn the break into a false break
Recovery through the 0.5597 rejection high breaks the lower-highs sequence
NZIER Business Confidence at 21:00 UTC adds late-session risk
13:32 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since London · RSI 30 · price 0.55821
Asia-low break into NY pre-open, lower-high chain.
London's rebound stalled at a double top at 0.5601 under the 0.5600 handle. Price has now broken the 0.5584 Asia low to a fresh session low at 0.5582 ahead of NY, with risk-off USD demand still the driver. RSI(14) near 30 and ATR around 4.4 pips.
Support: 0.55816, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.55842, 0.55974, 0.56014
What it said to watch
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (S&P PMI 13:45) could materially shift this read
Reclaim of the 0.5584 asia low back inside the range would mark a false break
M15 close below 0.5580 psych extends the lower-low sequence
Break above the 0.5597 lower high and descending trendline invalidates the downtrend read
13:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London · RSI 35 · price 0.55854
Asian-range retest at session low after a capped London rebound.
Early NY has pushed NZDUSD back onto the 0.5584 Asian low, near the fresh YTD low, as the safe-haven USD bid and bond-market stress weigh on the Kiwi. London's rebound stalled twice at the 0.5601 London high, and the lower-high trendline since then has capped every bounce, most recently at 0.5593.
Support: 0.55842, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5593, 0.56014
What it said to watch
ISM Services 14:00 UTC (S&P PMI 13:45) could materially shift this read
M15 close below 0.5584 Asian low extends to fresh YTD lows, with the 0.5580 round number next
Close above the 0.5593 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline and reopens the 0.5601 London high
Asia sold off from 0.5621 to a 0.5584 Asian low. London's bounce was rejected at 0.5601, the London high near the 50% fib of that drop. Lower highs since, with the latest at 0.5593, have taken price back to retest the Asian low near the YTD low as haven USD demand holds. RSI(14) ~39, not stretched.
Support: 0.55842, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5593, 0.56014
What it said to watch
S&P Global PMI 13:45 UTC and ISM Services 14:00 UTC (f/c 55) in the first hour of NY could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 0.5584 Asian low prints a fresh YTD low and exposes the 0.5580 round number
M15 close above the 0.5593 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline sequence
Recovery through the 0.5601 London high would negate the rejection at the 50% fib
NZIER Business Confidence 21:00 UTC is a later risk for the Asia session
12:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs off London peak · RSI 37 · price 0.55878
Lower-high sequence pressing toward the Asia low.
Asia sold off from the 0.5621 Asia high to a fresh YTD low at 0.5584 (asia low) as the risk-off USD bid weighed on NZD. London's rebound was rejected at 0.5601 (london high), a double top just under the 50% fib of the Asia drop. Lower highs since then, most recently 0.5593, have pushed price back to 0.5588 into the London-NY transition, below both EMAs.
Support: 0.55842
Resistance: 0.5593, 0.56014, 0.56208
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5584 asia low extends the move to a fresh YTD low
Close above the 0.5593 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence
Recovery through the 0.5601 london high and the 50% fib of the Asia drop invalidates the downtrend read
S&P Global PMI 13:45 UTC and ISM Services 14:00 UTC (f/c 55) could materially shift this read
0.5621 asia high is the upper boundary if the London double top fails
Lower highs inside a 0.5588–0.5601 range above the YTD low.
The Asia session sold off from 0.5621 to a fresh YTD low at 0.5584 as risk-off USD demand drove the pair. London's rebound met rejection at the 0.5601 London high, just under the 0.5600 handle and short of the 50% level of the Asia sell-off fib. Price has since rotated into a 0.5588–0.5597 range with a lower high at 0.5597, holding below both EMAs into the London-NY transition.
Support: 0.55882, 0.55842
Resistance: 0.55974, 0.56014
What it said to watch
A close below the 0.5588 London low exposes the 0.5584 YTD low.
A close above the 0.5597 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 0.5601 London high back in play.
US S&P PMI at 13:45 UTC and ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55) could break the session range in the first hour of NY.
12:17 UTC
Downtrend, flattening into range · RSI 42 · price 0.55913
0.5588–0.5601 range below the 0.5600 handle, lower highs.
Risk-off USD demand drove a 0.5621 asian high to 0.5584 slide in Asia, a fresh YTD low. London's bounce hit a double top at 0.5601, near the 50% retrace of the asian drop, and failed under the 0.5600 handle. Since then price has carved lower highs in a 0.5588–0.5601 range, with the range floor tested four times and RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 0.55885, 0.55842
Resistance: 0.56014, 0.56062, 0.56208
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5588 range floor exposes the 0.5584 YTD low
Break of the lower highs line and the 0.5601 double top reopens the 0.5606 friday low
US S&P PMI 13:45 UTC and ISM Services 14:00 UTC (f/c 55) could materially shift this read early in NY hours
Asia breakdown, capped London rebound, lower highs into NY open.
NZDUSD broke below 0.5600 during the Asia session as risk-off flows lifted USD, printing a session low at 0.5584. The London rebound was rejected twice at the 0.5601 London high, just under the 50% of the Asia sell-off fib. Price has since compressed into a 0.5589–0.5597 range under lower highs as NY opens, with RSI(14) at 43 and ATR around 4.6 pips.
Support: 0.55888, 0.55842
Resistance: 0.55974, 0.56014, 0.56208
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5589 range floor exposes the 0.5584 session low, near the YTD low
Close above the 0.5597 range top and the 0.5601 London high breaks the lower-highs sequence; the 0.5621 Asia high is the next level above
US S&P Global PMI (13:45 UTC) and ISM Services (14:00 UTC) inside 2h could materially shift this read
NZIER Business Confidence at 21:00 UTC is a late-session risk for NZD
11:47 UTC
Downtrend, London rebound fading · RSI 39 · price 0.55893
Lower highs below 0.5601 London high, pressing session low inside Asian range.
Asia slid 37 pips from the 0.5621 asia high to the 0.5584 asian low near the YTD low, with risk-off USD demand doing the work. London's rebound stalled twice at the 0.5601 london high, near the 50% fib of that drop, and has since printed a lower high at 0.5597. Price is now back at the 0.5589 session low. RSI(14) is near 39 and ATR runs about 4.6 pips.
Support: 0.55885, 0.55842
Resistance: 0.55974, 0.56014, 0.56208
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5584 asian low (YTD low area) extends the downtrend leg
Close back above the 0.5597 lower high and 0.5601 london high voids the double top and lower-high read
S&P Global PMI 13:45 UTC and ISM Services 14:00 UTC into NY open could reset the session range
A move back toward the 0.5621 asia high needs the descending trendline from 0.5601 to give way first
11:32 UTC
Flat after Asia sell-off, London ranging · RSI 46 · price 0.55955
0.5588–0.5601 range above the YTD low.
Asia faded from the 0.5621 Asian high to a fresh YTD low at 0.5584 as haven USD demand dominated. London has ranged between the 0.5588 London low and the 0.5601 session high, capped twice at 0.5600. The 11:00 UTC bar showed a rejection off the London low, closing near its high, with price now sitting around EMA20 and ATR just over 4 pips.
Support: 0.55885, 0.55842
Resistance: 0.56014, 0.56208
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5588 London low exposes the 0.5584 YTD low; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the 0.5601 session high and 0.5600 round number breaks the London range toward the Monday open gap near 0.5607
US S&P Global PMI 13:45 UTC and ISM Services 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read; a soft ISM print hits an overbought USD
NZIER QSBO at 21:00 UTC adds NZD event risk into the Asia session, with the 0.5621 Asian high the upper reference
11:17 UTC
Downtrend, London bounce failing · RSI 43 · price 0.55904
Lower highs below 0.5601 after double-top rejection, pressing London low.
Haven USD demand and the bond-market selloff drove an Asia session slide to a ytd low at 0.5584. The London rebound stalled twice at 0.5601, forming a double top under 0.5600. A lower high at 0.5597 followed, and price is now sitting on the london low at 0.5588 mid-session with RSI(14) near 43.
Support: 0.55884, 0.55842
Resistance: 0.55968, 0.56014
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5588 london low exposes the 0.5584 ytd low; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 0.5597 lower high and the 0.5601 double top invalidates the rejection read
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (S&P PMI 13:45) could materially shift this read in the first hour of NY
NZIER QSBO at 21:00 UTC is a secondary risk for the Asia session
11:05 UTC
Rebound stalled, price below both EMAs · RSI 44 · price 0.55924
0.5591–0.5601 London range above the Asia-session YTD low.
NZD/USD bounced from the Asia-session YTD low at 0.5584, set as the bond-market rout drove haven USD demand. London then capped twice at 0.5601 (london high), just above 0.5600, in a small double top. Price has slipped back below EMA20/EMA50 and is sitting on the 61.8% fib retrace near the 0.5591 london low, with RSI(14) at 44 and ATR around 4 pips.
Support: 0.55908, 0.55884, 0.55842
Resistance: 0.56014, 0.56208
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5591 london low exposes the 0.5588 london open dip, then the 0.5584 ytd low
Break of the 0.5584 ytd low confirms a fresh lower low for the day
M15 close back above the 0.5601 london high invalidates the double top and reopens the 0.5621 asia high
US S&P PMI 13:45 UTC and ISM Services 14:00 UTC, early in NY hours, could materially shift this read
NZIER QSBO at 21:00 UTC is the next NZD-specific risk after NY close
Lower high at 0.5601 after the Asia-session YTD low; drifting mid-range.
Asia session slid from the 0.5621 Asia high to a fresh YTD low at 0.5584 on haven USD demand. London's bounce stalled twice at the 0.5601 London high, a double top at the round number and the 50% retrace of the Asia drop. Price is back at 0.5593 below EMA20/50, with RSI(14) near 45 and ATR around 4 pips.
Support: 0.55908, 0.55884, 0.55842
Resistance: 0.56014, 0.56208
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5591 swing low exposes the 0.5588 London low and the 0.5584 YTD low
An M15 close above the 0.5601 London high negates the double top and opens the 0.5621 Asia high
US S&P PMI at 13:45 UTC and ISM Services at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia breakdown to 0.5584, London lower high capped at 0.5600.
NZD broke below 0.5600 during the Asia session to the 0.5584 YTD low as bond-market turmoil kept haven USD demand firm. The London rebound stalled at the 0.5600 round number, close to the fib 50% of the slide from the 0.5621 Asian high. Price has slipped back to 0.5592 with RSI(14) neutral near 48 and ATR(14) around 4.5 pips.
Support: 0.55885, 0.55842
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56208
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.5588 london low exposes the 0.5584 ytd low
Acceptance above the 0.5600 round number and the fib 50% near 0.5603 opens the 0.5621 asian high
ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55) could materially shift this read during NY hours
NZIER QSBO at 21:00 UTC is a late-session NZD risk
Lower high at 0.5601 after Asia breakdown to YTD low.
The Asia session sold off from the 0.5621 asia high to a fresh ytd low at 0.5584 as haven USD demand built on the bond-market rout. The London bounce saw rejection three times at the 0.5601 session high, near the 50% fib of the Asia drop. Price has slipped back to 0.5593, below both EMAs, with ATR near 4.5 pips.
Support: 0.55884, 0.55842
Resistance: 0.56014, 0.56208
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5601 session high opens the path back toward the 0.5621 asia high
Failure to hold the 0.5588 london low exposes the 0.5584 ytd low
US S&P PMI 13:45 UTC and ISM Services 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read; NZIER QSBO follows at 21:00 UTC
10:04 UTC
Bounce off Asian low stalling below 0.5600 · RSI 47 · price 0.55929
Higher low from Asian low, capped at 0.5601 session high.
Asia sold off from the 0.5621 Asian high to 0.5584 on haven USD demand. The London session rebounded to a 0.5601 session high, met rejection three times there, and has slipped back to the 50% retrace near 0.5593 with RSI(14) mid-range. The rising lows line from 0.5584 to the 0.5588 London low sits just below price.
Support: 0.55884, 0.55842
Resistance: 0.56014, 0.56208
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5588 london low breaks the rising lows line and puts the 0.5584 asian low in play
Break of the 0.5584 asian low would print a fresh YTD low
Close above the 0.5601 session high voids the rejection and opens the 0.5621 asian high
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
NZIER QSBO at 21:00 UTC is a second-tier risk late in the window
09:47 UTC
Downtrend, London bounce faded · RSI 47 · price 0.55923
Lower high at 0.5601 below the 0.5621 asia high; 0.5584–0.5601 range in play.
NZD slid from the 0.5621 asia high to a fresh ytd low at 0.5584 during the Asia session as haven USD demand and the bond-market rout dominated. London's bounce retested 0.5600 three times and stalled at the 0.5601 london high, between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the asia selloff. Price has slipped back to 0.5592, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) neutral near 47.
Support: 0.55884, 0.55842
Resistance: 0.56014, 0.56208
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5601 london high and the 50% fib of the asia selloff near 0.5603 opens the path back toward the 0.5621 asia high
Failure to hold the 0.5588 london low exposes the 0.5584 ytd low; a break there confirms a lower-low
US S&P PMI (13:45 UTC) and ISM Services (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
NZIER QSBO at 21:00 UTC adds NZD event risk late in NY hours
09:32 UTC
Downtrend, corrective London bounce · RSI 58 · price 0.5599
Higher lows off the 0.5584 YTD low, capped at 0.5600.
The Asian session slid from the 0.5621 Asian high to a 0.5584 YTD low on haven USD demand tied to the bond rout. Since then the London session has built higher lows (London low 0.5588, pullback low 0.5595) back into 0.5600. There it is retesting the broken round number, with a session high of 0.5601 and the EMA50 capping two upper-wick rejections inside the 38.2–50% fib of the Asia drop.
Support: 0.55955, 0.55884, 0.55842
Resistance: 0.56014, 0.5608, 0.56208
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5601 session high and 50% fib opens the 0.5608 breakdown area, then the 0.5621 Asian high
Loss of the 0.5595 pullback low and the rising trendline puts the 0.5588 London low back in play
Break of the 0.5584 YTD low resumes the Asia-session downtrend
US S&P PMI 13:45 UTC and ISM Services 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
09:18 UTC
Recovering from Asia low, testing 0.5600 · RSI 61 · price 0.56002
Higher lows off YTD low, capped at session high.
Asia session sold off from the 0.5621 asian high to a 0.5584 ytd low as the bond rout drove haven USD demand. London open held a higher low at 0.5588, and price is now retesting the 0.5600 round number. The 0.5601 session high caps it just below the 50% retrace, with price above ema20 and pinned at EMA50.
Support: 0.5597, 0.55884, 0.55842
Resistance: 0.56014, 0.56074, 0.56208
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5601 session high and 50% retrace (0.5603) opens the 0.5607 weekly open, then the 0.5621 asian high
Loss of ema20 near 0.5597 returns price to the 0.5588–0.5596 morning range
Break of the higher lows line and the 0.5588 london low exposes the 0.5584 ytd low
US S&P PMI (13:45 UTC) and ISM Services (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Haven USD demand flushed the pair from the 0.5621 drop origin to a YTD low at 0.5584 in the Asia session. London broke the 0.5596 asian high and was rejected at a 0.5601 session high, on the 0.5600 round number and 38.2% fib, with higher lows from 0.5584 and the 0.5588 london low intact. Price is retesting the asian high, holding above EMA20 but just under EMA50 near 0.5600.
Support: 0.55957, 0.55884, 0.55842
Resistance: 0.56013, 0.56208
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5601 session high clears the 38.2% fib and opens the 50% near 0.5603, then the 0.5621 drop origin
Loss of the 0.5596 asian high returns price to the Asian range, with the 0.5588 london low and 0.5584 ytd low below
Break of the higher-lows trendline would undo the bounce structure
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
NZIER QSBO at 21:00 UTC is the next NZD-specific risk
Asia sell-off low 0.5584, higher low 0.5588 in London; capped at 0.5600 psych.
Asia slid from the asia high at 0.5621 to an asia low of 0.5584 as safe-haven USD demand returned. London printed a higher low at 0.5588 and bounced into the 0.5600 psych and the 38.2% of the asia fib, where the london high at 0.5601 drew a rejection with EMA50 overhead.
Support: 0.55884, 0.55842
Resistance: 0.56013, 0.56057, 0.56208
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5601 london high and the 0.5606 friday low invalidates the rejection read and puts the 0.5621 asia high in view
Failure to hold the 0.5588 london low breaks the higher-low trendline and reopens the 0.5584 asia low
US S&P Global PMI 13:45 UTC and ISM Services 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) during NY hours could materially shift this read
NZIER Q3 Business Confidence at 21:00 UTC adds NZD event risk into the Asia session
Higher lows off 0.55842 asia low, testing 0.5600 psych from below.
Asia session broke below Friday's lows and the 0.5600 psych to a 0.55842 asia low as safe-haven USD demand held. London has built higher lows off 0.55884 to a 0.56013 session high, stalling at the 38.2% retrace of the Asian drop and just under EMA50, with RSI(14) near 61.
Support: 0.55884, 0.55842
Resistance: 0.56013, 0.56058
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.56013 session high opens the 50% retrace near 0.5603 and the friday low at 0.56058
Break of the higher-lows trendline and the 0.55884 london low puts the 0.55842 asia low back in play
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) and S&P PMI at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
08:17 UTC
London recovery after Asia sell-off · RSI 67 · price 0.56004
HH/HL chain off the 0.5584 Asia low, pressing 0.5600.
Asia sold off from 0.5621 to a 0.5584 Asia low on safe-haven USD demand. London has since printed higher lows from the 0.5588 london low and broken the 0.5590–0.5596 range, retesting 0.5600 at the london high. That level is the 38.2% fib, where price is sitting right on EMA50 with RSI(14) near 67; the 50% fib at 0.5603 and the friday low near 0.5607 sit overhead.
Support: 0.55963, 0.55884, 0.55842
Resistance: 0.56004, 0.56025, 0.56068
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5596 prior high puts the range break in doubt
Failure to hold the 0.5588 london low breaks the higher-low chain and reopens the 0.5584 asia low
Acceptance above 0.5600 opens the 50% fib at 0.5603, then the friday low at 0.5607
US S&P Composite PMI (13:45 UTC) and ISM Services (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
NZIER Q3 Business Confidence at 21:00 UTC is a late-session risk for NZD
Asia sell-off to 0.5584, then higher lows below 0.5600.
Monday opened on a gap below Friday's 0.5613 close. The Asia high at 0.5621 then gave way to a slide to the 0.5584 asia low as haven USD demand returned. Early London is holding a higher-low chain above the 0.5588 london low, but the bounce stalled at the 0.5599 session high, the 38.2% retrace of the Asia drop, just under 0.5600 psych.
Support: 0.55884, 0.55842
Resistance: 0.55988, 0.5600, 0.56208
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5600 psych and the 38.2% retrace reopens the Asia range toward the 0.5621 asia high
Break of the 0.5588 london low ends the higher-low chain and exposes the 0.5584 asia low
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (S&P PMI 13:45) could materially shift this read; NZIER confidence follows at 21:00 UTC
07:47 UTC
Downtrend from Asia high, intraday rebound · RSI 64 · price 0.55962
Higher lows off 0.5584 Asia low, pressing rebound high.
Monday opened with a gap below Friday's close. Asia then sold off from 0.5621 to the 0.5584 Asia low as haven USD demand pushed the pair through 0.5600. Price has since built higher lows, and early London is retesting the 0.5597 rebound high, with the psych 0.5600 level just overhead. Price sits above EMA20 but still below EMA50.
Support: 0.55884, 0.55842
Resistance: 0.55968, 0.5600, 0.56044
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5600 psych opens the 0.5604 breakdown zone and the 38.2% fib near 0.5598
Loss of the 0.5588 london low breaks the higher-low trendline; below the 0.5584 asia low the downtrend resumes
US S&P Global PMI 13:45 UTC and ISM Services 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
NZIER Q3 Business Confidence at 21:00 UTC is a late-session NZD risk
Asia break below 0.5600, tight consolidation 0.5584–0.5596 into London.
Monday Asia faded from 0.5621 and broke the 0.5600 round number on haven USD demand, setting a session low at 0.5584 before stalling into a range with a floor near 0.5587. The first hour of London produced a rejection at 0.5596, below the 38.2% fib of the Asia drop and the lower highs trendline, and price is back mid-range with RSI(14) neutral and ATR near 3.5 pips.
Support: 0.55871, 0.55842
Resistance: 0.55963, 0.5600, 0.56062
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5596 London high and the 0.5600 round number breaks the lower highs sequence and points toward the Friday low at 0.5606
A break of the range floor at 0.5587 exposes the 0.5584 session low and extends the downtrend
US S&P PMI 13:45 UTC and ISM Services 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read during the NY session
NZIER Q3 Business Confidence at 21:00 UTC could move NZD at the Asia open
07:17 UTC
Downtrend, compressing after Asia sell-off · RSI 56 · price 0.55927
Tight 0.5587–0.5596 range with rising lows beneath 0.5600.
Monday opened with a gap below Friday's 0.5613 close. Supply capped the Asian high at 0.5621, then a haven USD bid drove the pair through the 0.5600 psych level to a 0.5584 session low. Since then price has held a 0.5587 range floor to 0.5596 range high with rising lows into London open, sitting near the 23.6% retrace of the Asia sell-off on ATR of about 3.4 pips.
Support: 0.5587, 0.55842
Resistance: 0.55963, 0.5600, 0.56057
What it said to watch
Break of the 0.5587 range floor and the rising lows puts the 0.5584 session low back in play
M15 close above the 0.5596 range high and 0.5600 psych exposes the 38.2% retrace near 0.5598 and Friday low at 0.5606
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
NZIER Q3 Business Confidence at 21:00 UTC is a late-session risk for NZD
A late-Asia slide on safe-haven USD demand took out the 0.5603 Asian low and the 0.5600 round number. Price printed a 0.5584 session low, then settled into a 0.5587–0.5596 range. At London open price is pressing the range top, with rising lows off the range floor, RSI(14) near 43, above EMA20 but still capped below EMA50.
Support: 0.5590, 0.5587, 0.55842
Resistance: 0.55963, 0.5600, 0.56029
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5596 range top exposes the 0.5600 round number and the 0.5603 asian low near the 50% fib of the late-Asia slide
Break of the rising lows near 0.5590 returns focus to the 0.5587 range floor
Loss of the 0.5584 session low resumes the downtrend leg
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) during NY hours could materially shift this read
06:47 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in a post-drop base · RSI 52 · price 0.55935
Asia breakdown through 0.5600 to 0.5584, then tight 0.5587–0.5596 base with shallow higher lows.
Asia session faded the Sunday-open push to 0.5621. Price then broke the friday low at 0.5606 and the 0.5600 psych level, printing an asia low at 0.5584 as safe-haven USD demand returned. Since 03:00 UTC it has held a narrow base, with the base low at 0.5587 and the session high at 0.5596. That leaves it just above the 23.6% fib of the Asia drop heading into London open.
Support: 0.5587, 0.55842
Resistance: 0.55963, 0.5600, 0.56058
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5600 psych level and the 0.5606 friday low would neutralise the Asia breakdown
Loss of the 0.5587 base low and the higher-lows line exposes the 0.5584 asia low
Session high at 0.5596 capping London open keeps the base below the 38.2% fib at 0.5598
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
06:33 UTC
Intraday downtrend, pausing in a slow rebound · RSI 40 · price 0.55927
Post-drop consolidation with rising lows below 0.5600.
Asia rolled over from the 0.5621 session high and broke Friday's low at 0.5606 and the 0.5600 round number on renewed safe-haven USD demand. The move bottomed at the 0.5584 session low. Since then, rising lows have lifted price off the 0.5587 range base, but the 0.5596 bounce high stalled near EMA20 heading into the London open.
Support: 0.55871, 0.55842
Resistance: 0.55963, 0.5600, 0.56057
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5600 round number would reclaim the break level; 38.2% of the Asia drop sits at 0.5598 and the Friday low at 0.5606 is next
Loss of the rising lows line near 0.5591 returns focus to the 0.5587 range base
Break below the 0.5584 session low resumes the Asia decline
London open within the hour may expand the narrow ~3.6-pip ATR
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
Lower high at 0.5621 then range break below 0.5600; tight base 0.5587–0.5595 since.
Asia faded the Sunday-open lift at 0.5621 and broke the 0.5600 psych and Friday low at 0.5606 on safe-haven USD demand, printing a session low at 0.5584. Since then price has built a tight base with higher lows off the range floor at 0.5587, now pressing the micro high at 0.5595 into London open. The 0.5600–0.5602 zone, near the 38.2% retrace of the Asia drop, is the first test above.
Support: 0.55872, 0.55842
Resistance: 0.55948, 0.5600, 0.5606
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5600 psych and the 38.2% retrace near 0.5598 would challenge the range break
Close below the 0.5587 range floor breaks the higher lows and exposes the 0.5584 session low
Friday low at 0.5606 caps any recovery unless reclaimed
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower high at 0.5621 then Asia range break below 0.5600; tight 0.5587–0.5593 box since.
Asia session broke Friday's low at 0.5606 and the 0.5600 psych level, printing a 0.5584 session low as haven USD demand returned. Price has since compressed between the 0.5587 range low and a 0.5593 range top, sitting at the 23.6% fib of the 0.5621–0.5584 drop. RSI(14) is near 46 and price is below EMA20 and EMA50 ahead of London open.
Support: 0.5590, 0.55871, 0.55842
Resistance: 0.55934, 0.5600, 0.56057
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5593 range top opens a retest of the 0.5600 psych level and Friday low at 0.5606
Loss of the 0.5587 range low and 0.5584 session low resumes the lower-low sequence
Higher lows near 0.5590 have pressed price into the top of the box; a break of those higher lows returns focus to the base
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
05:47 UTC
Downtrend, pausing after Asia breakdown · RSI 41 · price 0.55921
Lower highs from 0.5621 Asia high; tight range just above session low.
Haven USD demand returned in Asia. NZD/USD broke the 0.5600 round number and Friday's low at 0.5606, then printed a session low at 0.5584 before stalling. Late in the Asia session, price is compressing between the range base at 0.5587 and the range top at 0.5593, just under the 23.6% retracement of the Asia drop and below EMA20.
Support: 0.5587, 0.5584
Resistance: 0.5593, 0.5600, 0.5606
What it said to watch
M15 close above the range top at 0.5593 and back over the 0.5600 round number would test the breakdown, with Friday low 0.5606 next overhead
Failure to hold the range base at 0.5587 exposes the session low at 0.5584; a break extends the lower-low chain
London open in about 75 min typically expands the range beyond the current ~4-pip ATR
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) is the next USD catalyst for this read
05:32 UTC
Downtrend, compressing after Asia sell-off · RSI 35 · price 0.55916
Lower highs from 0.5621; tight 0.5587–0.5593 base below 0.5600.
Asia session faded the Sunday bounce from 0.5621 and broke Friday's low and the 0.5600 psych level as Yemen headlines revived safe-haven USD demand, printing a session low at 0.5584. Since 03:00 UTC price has compressed between the 0.5587 range floor and the 0.5593 range top, still under the ema20 near 0.5596, with RSI(14) at about 35 ahead of London open.
Support: 0.55871, 0.55842
Resistance: 0.55933, 0.5600, 0.56057
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5593 range top and the 38.2% Asia-leg fib near 0.5598 puts 0.5600 psych and Friday's low at 0.5606 back in play
Break of the 0.5587 range floor and session low at 0.5584 extends the lower-low sequence
London open in about 1.5h is the first test of the Asian range
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
05:17 UTC
Downtrend, pausing after Asia sell-off · RSI 35 · price 0.55918
Lower highs from the 0.5621 session high; tight range above the 0.5584 session low.
Monday Asia gapped lower and faded from the 0.5621 session high, then broke through the 0.5606 friday low and the 0.5600 psych level to a 0.5584 session low as safe-haven USD demand on Yemen headlines returned. Since then price has compressed in a 0.5587–0.5593 range below EMA20/50. The range top sits at the 23.6% fib of the Asia drop, with RSI(14) near 35 and ATR around 4.6 pips.
Support: 0.55871, 0.55842
Resistance: 0.5593, 0.5600, 0.56057
What it said to watch
Break of the 0.5584 session low extends the lower-low sequence; failure at the 0.5587 range base is the first sign
M15 close above the 0.5593 range top and the 0.5600 psych, near the descending line, challenges the downtrend read
Reclaiming the 0.5606 friday low would mark the break below 0.5600 as a false break
London open in roughly 2h may break the current Asian range
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift USD and this read
NZIER Q3 Business Confidence at 21:00 UTC is an NZD risk into the next Asia session
Lower highs from 0.5621; range break below 0.5600; tight consolidation.
Asia session faded the 0.5621 open high and broke through the Friday low and the 0.5600 psych level, printing a 0.5584 swing low as the Yemen-driven safe-haven bid lifted USD. The bounce stalled at 0.5593, the 23.6% fib, and price has since compressed between the 0.5587 range floor and that bounce high into the late-Asia hours, RSI(14) near 36.
Support: 0.55871, 0.55842
Resistance: 0.5593, 0.5600, 0.56057
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5600 psych level negates the range break and puts the 0.5606 Friday low back in play
Failure to hold the 0.5587 range floor and the 0.5584 swing low extends the lower-low sequence
Break above the 0.5593 bounce high opens the 38.2% fib near 0.5598
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
04:47 UTC
Downtrend, stalling near lows · RSI 31 · price 0.55895
Lower highs from Asian open; tight post-drop consolidation.
Monday Asia gapped below Friday's 0.5613 close, popped to 0.5621, then slid through the Friday low at 0.5606 and the 0.5600 psych level to a 0.5584 session low on safe-haven USD demand. Since 03:00 UTC price has compressed between a 0.5587 micro base and the 0.5593 bounce high, below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 31.
Support: 0.5587, 0.55842
Resistance: 0.5593, 0.5600, 0.56057
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5584 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 0.5593 bounce high and then 0.5600 psych (near the fib 38.2%) would mark the drop as a false break
Friday low at 0.5606 caps any recovery attempt into London open
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs through Asia, range break below Friday low, tight consolidation.
Asia session faded the 0.5621 early-week high, then broke below the 0.5606 friday low and the 0.5600 psych level. The slide reached a 0.5584 session low as safe-haven USD demand returned on US-Iran headlines. Price is now consolidating in a 0.5587–0.5593 band under the bounce high, with RSI(14) recovered to ~34 from oversold territory and still beneath the Asia downtrend line.
Support: 0.55842
Resistance: 0.5593, 0.5600, 0.56057
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 0.5600 psych, near the 38.2% of the Asia drop, would neutralise the breakdown read
Failure to hold the 0.5584 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Break of the 0.5593 bounce high and the Asia downtrend line shifts the read to a broader retracement toward the 0.5606 friday low
London open could test the Asian range extremes
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs through Asia; broke Friday low and 0.5600, now tight consolidation 0.5584–0.5593.
Monday Asia faded the 0.5621 open high and broke through the Friday low and the 0.5600 round number on safe-haven USD demand, printing an Asian low at 0.5584 with RSI(14) dipping into the low 20s. Since then the bounce has stalled at 0.5593, about a quarter of the Asia selloff fib, and a higher low at 0.5587 has formed in a tight consolidation mid-Tokyo.
Support: 0.55872, 0.55842
Resistance: 0.5593, 0.5600, 0.56057
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5600 round number (near the 38.2% of the Asia selloff fib) would turn the break into a false break
Failure at the 0.5584 Asian low extends the lower-low chain; loss of the 0.5587 higher low comes first
Bounce high at 0.5593 is the first cap; Friday low at 0.5606 now overhead as broken support
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (S&P PMI 13:45) could materially shift this read during NY hours
NZIER Q3 Business Confidence at 21:00 UTC is the next NZD-side catalyst
Lower highs from 0.5621; 0.5600 broken, weak bounce.
Monday's Asia session faded from the 0.5621 high and broke through 0.5600 psych and the 0.5606 Friday low, as safe-haven USD demand returned. Price set a session low at 0.5584 before stalling at the 0.5593 bounce high, near the 23.6% fib of the drop. RSI(14) has recovered to about 31 from 22.
Support: 0.55842, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5593, 0.5600, 0.56057
What it said to watch
A break of the 0.5584 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5580 round number.
A recovery above the 0.5593 bounce high and back over 0.5600 psych would turn the move into a false break of the figure, with the Friday low at 0.5606 above that.
The London open in about 3h could break the Asian range.
US ISM Services (14:00 UTC, f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read.
Lower highs from 0.5621, range break below 0.5600 and Friday low.
The Asia session faded from the 0.5621 session high through the 0.5600 psych level and the 0.5606 Friday low, printing a 0.5584 session low as safe-haven USD demand returned after Friday's NFP miss. RSI(14) near 32. The bounce is stalling around 0.5592, below the 38.2–50% fib zone at 0.5598–0.5603, where supply previously broke the level.
Support: 0.55842
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56057, 0.56208
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5600 psych and 0.5603 fib 50% would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.5584 session low extends the lower-low chain
Reclaiming the 0.5606 Friday low would put the 0.5621 session high back in view
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
Lower highs through Asia; Friday low and 0.5600 broken.
Asia session extended Friday's post-NFP fade. The Asia drop from the 0.5621 session high cut through the Friday low near 0.5606 and the 0.5600 round number, printing a session low at 0.5584 before an 8-pip bounce off oversold RSI. That fits the digest's read of NZD-specific heaviness despite the soft US jobs data, with 0.5600 now overhead.
Support: 0.55842
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.5606, 0.56208
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5584 session low extends the lower-low sequence
M15 close back above the 0.5600 round number and the 38.2% of the Asia drop fib reopens the Friday low at 0.5606 (61.8% zone)
Recovery through the 0.5621 session high would negate the Asia downtrend read
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC and NZIER QSBO at 21:00 UTC could materially shift this read
03:17 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after Asia flush · RSI 19 · price 0.55889
Lower highs from Asian high, range break below 0.5600.
Monday's Asia session opened with a small weekend gap lower, then faded steadily from the 0.5621 Asian high. Price broke through Friday's low at 0.5606 and the 0.5600 psych handle to a 0.5584 session low as haven USD demand returned. RSI(14) near 19 is deeply oversold after the ~37-pip slide, and the first bounce is stalling under 0.5590 ahead of London open.
Support: 0.55842, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56057, 0.56208
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 0.5600 psych, then 0.5606 friday low, would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.5584 session low exposes the 0.5580 round number
Asian drop fib 38.2–50% (0.5598–0.5603) sits at the broken 0.5600 level, a zone to watch for rejection
London open is the first test of whether the Asian range break extends
US ISM Services 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
A move back to the 0.5621 asian high would erase the session's lower-high sequence
03:03 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating into Asia · RSI 17 · price 0.55864
Lower highs from 0.5621 session high; 0.5600 handle broken.
The Asia session faded the Sunday open bid from the 0.5621 session high. Lower highs then gave way to a range break through the Friday low near 0.5606 and the 0.5600 psych handle, taking price to fresh lows at 0.5585 as haven USD demand returned. RSI(14) near 17 is deeply oversold after a roughly 35-pip drop in an hour, against a typical bar range of about 4 pips.
Support: 0.55845, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56057, 0.56208
What it said to watch
Holding back above the 0.5600 psych handle would mark the break as a false break; 0.5598–0.5603 (38.2–50% of the session move) is first overhead
Failure to hold the 0.5585 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5580 round number
Oversold RSI below 20 leaves room for a snap-back toward the descending lower highs line
US ISM Services 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) and NZIER QSBO 21:00 UTC could materially shift this read
02:47 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating into Asia · RSI 17 · price 0.55919
Lower highs from the 0.5621 Asia high; range break below Friday low and the 0.5600 psych handle.
The Asia session sold off steadily from the 0.5621 Asia high. Price cut through Friday low at 0.5606 and the 0.5600 psych handle to a session low at 0.5591, as haven USD demand unwinds the post-NFP bounce. RSI(14) near 17 is deeply oversold after an 8-pip and a 6-pip bar, about double the 4.1-pip ATR.
Support: 0.55909
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56057, 0.56208
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 0.5600 psych would turn the break into a false break
Recovery through Friday low 0.5606 (50% of the Asia high-low fib) neutralises the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold 0.5591 session low extends the lower-low chain
US ISM Services 14:00 UTC and NZIER QSBO 21:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.5621 session high, break below 0.5600.
Asia session has printed a chain of lower highs from the 0.5621 session high. Price has broken the 0.5600 psych level and the prior lows near 0.5602 to a fresh session low at 0.5597, with RSI(14) near 26 after an 8-pip 02:15 UTC bar. Friday's NFP spike to 0.5643 is fully unwound as haven USD demand returns.
Support: 0.5597
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.5602, 0.5621
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 0.5600 psych and 0.5602 prior lows would turn the break into a false break
A move through the lower highs line and the 0.5621 session high invalidates the intraday downtrend read
Continued trade below the 0.5597 session low extends the lower-low chain
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC and the NZIER QSBO at 21:00 UTC could materially shift this read
02:17 UTC
Downtrend, extending into Asia · RSI 31 · price 0.56064
Lower highs from 0.5621 session high; Friday London lows broken.
Monday opened about 5 pips below Friday's close and briefly rallied to a 0.5621 session high. Asia then sold off in a lower-high chain to a 0.5603 Asia low, under Friday's London lows, as haven USD demand pares the post-NFP slide; Kiwi sits just above the 0.5600 round number with RSI(14) near 31.
Support: 0.56033, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56129, 0.56208
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 0.5613 fills the weekend gap and breaks the Asia lower-high trendline
Sustained trade under the 0.5600 round number confirms a fresh lower-low leg; it also sits at the Nov 2025 lows
Reclaiming the 0.5621 session high would neutralise the Asia sell-off
London open in ~5h is the next test of the Asia low; US ISM Services 14:00 UTC and NZIER QSBO 21:00 UTC could materially shift this read
02:04 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 31 · price 0.56057
Lower-high sequence from 0.5621 Asian high, price testing Asian low.
Asia session's early pop to the 0.5621 Asian high faded into a steady chain of lower highs, and price is back near 0.5603 with the 0.5600 cycle low just below. The USD is recovering part of Friday's post-NFP losses on safe-haven demand. The whole Asian drop has unfolded under a lower-high trendline, now capping near the 0.5613 lower high.
Support: 0.56029, 0.5600, 0.55974
Resistance: 0.56129, 0.56208, 0.5625
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5603 Asian low exposes the 0.5600 cycle low and the 0.5597 Friday low
Close above the lower-high trendline and 0.5613 breaks the lower-high sequence
Reclaim of the 0.5621 Asian high reopens the 0.5625 pivot
Price holding below the 50% retrace of the Asian drop keeps the lower-high read intact
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
Lower-high/lower-low chain off the Sunday-open bounce, pressing Friday low.
In the Asia session, price has faded the Sunday-open bounce off the 0.5621 asian high in a chain of lower highs. It has retraced over 70% of the asia rally fib and is pressing the 0.5606 friday low as USD claws back part of its post-NFP slide. The 0.5643 nfp spike was fully faded on Friday, and the 0.5603 gap low and 0.5600 cycle low sit just beneath.
Support: 0.5606, 0.5603, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5613, 0.5621, 0.5643
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5613 lower high breaks the asia trendline and the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 0.5606 friday low exposes the 0.5603 gap low and the 0.5600 cycle low
US ISM Services (14:00 UTC) and NZIER QSBO (21:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
01:32 UTC
Early-Asia pullback after gap-fill pop · RSI 37 · price 0.56117
Lower highs from 0.5621 Monday high, testing 61.8% retrace.
NZD opened Monday Asia with a weekend gap down to 0.5603, then filled it and ran to a 0.5621 Monday high as post-NFP USD softness carried over. The Asia session has since printed lower highs along a descending trendline and is sitting on the fib 61.8 at 0.5610, tested twice in the last hour; ATR near 3 pips reflects thin Asia conditions.
Support: 0.56098, 0.56062, 0.56029
Resistance: 0.5616, 0.56208, 0.56237
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the fib 61.8 at 0.5610 exposes the Friday low at 0.5606 and the Monday low at 0.5603
A close above the 0.5616 lower high breaks the descending trendline and reopens the Monday high at 0.5621
Clearing 0.5621 puts the pre-nfp high at 0.5624 back in play
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC, in NY hours, could materially shift this read
01:17 UTC
Intraday drift lower within Asian range · RSI 37 · price 0.56105
Lower highs from 0.5621 session high, testing 61.8% of Asia rally.
Monday Asia session gapped about 5 pips below Friday's close, set a 0.5603 session low, then ran to a 0.5621 session high on the lingering post-NFP soft-USD tone before fading in a lower-high chain. Price now sits on the 61.8% retracement of that Asia rally near 0.5610, just above Friday's NY low at 0.5606, with RSI(14) near 37 and ATR around 3 pips.
Support: 0.56062, 0.56029, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56147, 0.56208, 0.5631
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5606 NY low exposes the 0.5603 session low and the 0.5600 psych cycle low
M15 close above the 0.5615 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 0.5621 session high back in play
Friday's 0.5631 NY range top marks where the post-NFP rally previously stalled
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
01:05 UTC
Short-term downtrend, lower highs since Monday open · RSI 42 · price 0.5610
Weekend gap filled, then lower highs and lower lows into early Asia session.
The Asia session opened about 5 pips below Friday's 0.5613 close (fri close). Price swung from the 0.5603 Monday low to the 0.5621 Monday high to fill the gap, then faded on lower highs under a descending trendline back to the 61.8% fib near 0.5610. Friday's soft-NFP spike to 0.5643 (nfp spike) has been fully retraced, and price is sitting just above the 0.5607 post-nfp low with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 0.5607, 0.5603, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5613, 0.5621, 0.5643
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5607 post-nfp low and 0.5603 Monday low exposes the 0.5600 cycle low
Close back above the descending trendline and 0.5613 fri close negates the lower-high sequence; 0.5621 Monday high is the next cap
ISM Services (14:00 UTC) and NZIER QSBO (21:00 UTC) could materially shift this read later today
Lower highs off Asia session high, testing Friday close.
Monday Asia opened on a small gap lower to a 0.5603 session low. It then reversed to a 0.5621 session high, and has since faded on lower highs back to the Friday close at 0.5613, between the 38.2% and 50% fib of that bounce. Friday's NFP-miss spike to 0.5643 was fully rejected, leaving post-NFP highs near 0.5631 overhead. RSI(14) is near 44 and ATR is about 3.4 pips in thin early-Asia trade.
Support: 0.56129, 0.5606, 0.56029
Resistance: 0.56208, 0.5631
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5612 Friday close / 50% fib exposes the 0.5606 Friday NY low and the 0.5603 session low
M15 close above the 0.5621 session high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the post-NFP high near 0.5631
ISM Services (14:00 UTC, f/c 55.7) later today could materially shift this read
00:32 UTC
Flat, mild downside drift off Asia high · RSI 49 · price 0.56143
Gap-down open, false break of Friday low, lower highs since.
Monday's Asia session opened with a gap below Friday's 0.5613 close. Price dipped under the friday low to a gap low at 0.5603, then reversed to an asia high at 0.5621 as the post-NFP soft-USD drift carried over. Lower highs since then have pulled price back to the 38.2% fib near 0.5614, with RSI(14) neutral around 49 and price sitting just under EMA20/50.
Support: 0.56131, 0.56058, 0.56029
Resistance: 0.56208, 0.5631, 0.56427
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 38.2% fib at 0.5613 exposes the friday low at 0.5606 and the gap low at 0.5603
Close above the asia high at 0.5621 breaks the lower-highs line and opens the nfp highs at 0.5631, then the 0.5643 nfp spike
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
00:17 UTC
Flat, range-bound in early Asia · RSI 52 · price 0.56148
Asian range 0.5603–0.5621 after weekend gap fill, capped below post-NFP highs.
Monday Asia gapped down to the 0.5603 asian low. The gap filled within the hour, but the rally stalled at the 0.5621 asian high, and price now sits on the EMA20/EMA50 cluster near 0.5615, at the 38.2% of the Asian rally. Friday's NFP miss sent the pair to a 0.5643 nfp spike that was rejected, leaving the 0.5631 post-nfp hi overhead, while the fri close at 0.5613 is the nearest support.
Support: 0.56129, 0.56029
Resistance: 0.56208, 0.5631, 0.56427
What it said to watch
Break below the 0.5613 fri close puts the 0.5603 asian low and the 0.5600 area back in play
Close above the 0.5621 asian high breaks the range top and exposes the 0.5631 post-nfp hi
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read later in the day
00:04 UTC
Short-term recovery, stalling below Asia high · RSI 53 · price 0.56166
False break below Friday floor, tight range 0.5614–0.5621.
Early Asia session: the weekend gap lower dipped through the 0.5606 Friday floor to a 0.5603 open low, then reversed to a 0.5621 Asia high. Price is holding the 0.5614 pullback low near the 38.2% of that rally, with flat EMAs and RSI near 53. Friday's soft-NFP spike to 0.5643 was fully faded, and post-NFP highs near 0.5631 remain overhead.
Support: 0.56139, 0.5606, 0.56029
Resistance: 0.56208, 0.5631, 0.56427
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5614 pullback low exposes the 0.5606 Friday floor
Break of the 0.5621 Asia high opens the 0.5631 NFP highs
Loss of the 0.5603 open low negates the false break
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC during NY hours could materially shift this read