21:08 UTC
Downtrend, oversold near YTD low · RSI 28 · price 0.56166
Lower highs / lower lows since the Aug 21 high.
NZDUSD has printed six straight weekly declines from the Aug 21 high at 0.5988, a clean lower-high/lower-low sequence with price below a falling EMA(50) and the EMA20 near 0.5700. USD safe-haven demand and last week's RBA hike pushed the pair through 0.5650 and the June low at 0.5626 to a YTD low of 0.5586. Friday's weak NFP produced only a one-day bounce that stalled under the June low and the falling trendline. RSI near 28 is a genuine D1 oversold reading, but there is no reversal structure yet.
Support: 0.5586, 0.5470
Resistance: 0.5626, 0.5700, 0.5749
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 0.5586 ytd low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5470 next support zone
- Reclaim of the 0.5626 june low and the falling trendline (~0.5635) would mark the first sign the slide is stalling
- A close above the 0.5749 swing high, beyond the ema20 near 0.5700, breaks the lower-high sequence
- FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC and RBNZ Breman Thu 08:00 UTC could materially shift this read