21:07 UTC
Downtrend, oversold but no reversal structure · RSI 25 · price 0.55966
Lower highs and lower lows since the Aug 21 high at 0.5988.
NZDUSD has posted a clean lower-high, lower-low sequence since the Aug 21 peak at 0.5988, down roughly 400 pips over six straight weekly losses. Price sits below both a falling EMA(20) and EMA(50) and is pressing the ytd low at 0.5580, with the 0.5500 psych level the next round figure below. Friday's soft US payrolls lifted the pair only to a lower high at 0.5643, which faded as yield-driven USD demand returned. Each rally since mid-September has stalled at the falling trendline, including the Sep 28 swing high at 0.5687.
Support: 0.5580, 0.5500
Resistance: 0.5643, 0.5687, 0.5704
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 0.5580 ytd low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5500 psych area
- Daily close above the 0.5643 lower high and the falling trendline would be the first break in the sequence of lower highs
- Recovery above the 0.5687 swing high and the 0.5704 sep low would reach the 38.2% retrace of the aug-oct drop near 0.5736
- RSI near 25 is deeply oversold, but there is no bullish divergence yet
- FOMC Minutes (Wed 18:00 UTC) and RBNZ Governor Breman (Thu 08:00 UTC) could materially shift this read