21:07 UTC
Downtrend, oversold but intact · RSI 31 · price 0.56237
Lower highs and lower lows since the Aug 21 high; testing broken June low from below.
NZDUSD has been in a seven-week downtrend since the Aug 21 high at 0.5988, with a clean lower-high, lower-low sequence and price below a falling EMA(50) since early September. Late September's slide broke the June low at 0.5627 and printed a fresh swing low at 0.5580 on Oct 5, as firm US yields outweighed the RBNZ hike cycle. This week's two-session bounce is stalling at the old june low from below, with RSI only just lifting off oversold.
Support: 0.5580, 0.5550
Resistance: 0.5627, 0.5700, 0.5736
What it said to watch
- Daily close back above the 0.5627 june low and the falling trendline would mark the first break in the lower-high chain
- Failure to hold the 0.5580 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5550 psych level
- Recovery through the 0.5700 sep pivot brings the 0.5736 fib 38.2 retracement of the Aug–Oct decline into play
- RBNZ Governor Breman Thu 08:00 UTC: a reset of Oct 28 hike odds from ~58% could materially shift this read
- US Initial Jobless Claims and Fed's Waller on Thu: a renewed US yield push keeps supply capping the june low