21:08 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stalling near lows · RSI 30 · price 0.55991
Lower-high/lower-low chain from the 0.5988 August high, compressing above the 0.5580 YTD low.
Six-week downtrend from the 0.5988 late-August high has taken roughly 400 pips off the pair. The decline has printed lower highs and lower lows each week, with price below a falling EMA(50) and capped by the falling resistance line from the early-September high. A USD bid on US yields near 2002 highs and the slide in October RBNZ hike odds drove the move. The last six sessions have compressed between the 0.5580 YTD low and the 0.5628 june low, now resistance, to 0.5643 lower high. RSI near 30 marks a genuinely oversold daily reading.
Support: 0.5580, 0.5500
Resistance: 0.5628, 0.5643, 0.5736
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 0.5580 ytd low extends the lower-low chain and opens the 0.5500 round number
- Daily close above the 0.5643 lower high and the falling resistance line breaks the weekly lower-high sequence, exposing the 38.2% fib of the Aug–Oct decline at 0.5736
- Rejection at the 0.5628 june low keeps the six-session consolidation intact
- UMich sentiment and inflation expectations (Fri 14:00 UTC) and RBNZ Gov. Breman (Oct 15) could materially shift this read via US yields and Oct 28 hike pricing