21:07 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stalling near lows · RSI 29 · price 0.56027
LH/LL chain from the Aug 21 peak, now basing in a tight range.
Seven-week downtrend from the 0.5988 Aug 21 peak. The lower high at 0.5902 in early September confirmed the turn, and price has held below a falling EMA(50) since. The last eight sessions have compressed into a 0.5580–0.5643 range just above the ytd low, with EMA(20) converging on the range cap, as US yields near 2002 highs outweigh firmer RBNZ hike pricing. RSI near 29 marks the leg as oversold, and the Sep 22 swing high at 0.5749 sits next to the 38.2% retracement of the Aug–Oct leg.
Support: 0.5580, 0.5500
Resistance: 0.5643, 0.5749, 0.5902
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 0.5580 ytd low extends the lower-low chain and puts the 0.5500 psych level in view
- Daily close above the 0.5643 range cap and EMA(20) opens a retracement toward the 0.5736–0.5749 swing high / fib 38.2% zone
- Only a recovery above the 0.5902 lower high would break the downtrend structure
- US CPI Wed Oct 14 and RBNZ Governor Breman Thu Oct 15 could materially shift this read
- Fresh US yield spikes have been capping every rally inside the range