NZD/USD AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Thursday, 8 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the NZD/USD 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:05 UTC
Range-bound, sitting in the lower half of the weekly range · RSI 57 · price 0.56027
0.5580–0.5628 range with lower highs since Tuesday; demand repeatedly near week low.
NZDUSD has held a 0.5580–0.5628 range since Monday's bond-rout week low. Tuesday's rally to the 0.5628 week high gave way to lower highs as oil-driven US yields lifted the dollar. Thursday's London dip stalled at 0.5582, and the bounce into the NY open met rejection at the 0.5613 Thursday high, just above the 61.8% retracement of the week's decline, as crude eased on Iran de-escalation. Price now sits marginally above the ema20 and EMA(50) near 0.5600, with RSI(14) at 57 and mid-range.
Support: 0.5599, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5613, 0.5628
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5613 thu high breaks the lower-highs trendline and opens the 0.5628 week high
Failure to hold the ema20 near 0.5599 returns focus to the 0.5580 week low; a break there confirms a lower-low
US UoM sentiment and inflation expectations (Fri 14:00 UTC) plus Fed's Collins could materially shift this read
0.5580–0.5628 weekly range, floor tested three times.
NZDUSD has chopped inside a 0.5580–0.5628 range since Monday's Asia drop from the 0.5619 weekly open. Tuesday's London-NY rally to the 0.5628 week high was fully unwound by Wednesday as oil-driven yield gains lifted USD. Thursday's London dip held the 0.5582 week low for a third time, and the NY bounce on Trump's Iran de-escalation was rejected at the 0.5613 lower high, just past the 61.8% fib of the Tue-Thu decline. Price now sits on EMA(20) near 0.5598, below a flat EMA(50) around 0.5601, with RSI(14) flat near 52.
Support: 0.5598, 0.5582
Resistance: 0.5613, 0.5619, 0.5628
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5582 week low, near the 18-month low, would break the range floor
Close above the 0.5613 lower high and the lower-highs trendline reopens the 0.5619 weekly open and 0.5628 week high
Holding the ema20 near 0.5598 keeps the mid-range chop intact; failure there shifts focus back to the week low
US UoM sentiment and inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC could materially shift USD and this read
NZDUSD has rotated inside a 0.5580–0.5628 range since Monday's open. Tuesday's NY-session push to the week high faded through Wednesday's London-NY selloff, leaving lower highs at 0.5626 and then the 0.5613 thu high. Demand held twice near the 0.5580 week low, Monday and again in Thursday's London session, and USD softness on Iran de-escalation lifted the pair back above the ema20 into NY, though the spike to 0.5613 was rejected. Price now sits just under the weekly open at 0.5607 and the 50% retrace of the Tue–Thu drop, with RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 0.55985, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.56074, 0.56133, 0.56282
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5580 week low breaks the range floor and confirms a fresh lower-low
Close above the 0.5613 thu high breaks the lower-highs line; week high at 0.5628 is the next cap
Failure to hold the ema20 near 0.5598 returns price to the lower half of the range
UMich sentiment and inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
0.5580–0.5628 range, highs compressing toward a flat base.
NZDUSD has rotated inside a 0.5580–0.5628 range since Monday's open. Tuesday's London-led rally set the week high at 0.5628, and Wednesday and Thursday printed lower highs, while the week low at 0.5580 absorbed three tests. Thursday's NY session spiked to the Thu high at 0.5613 as Iran de-escalation knocked oil and USD lower, but the move was rejected. Price now sits just above EMA(20) near 0.5598, at the 50% retracement of the week high-low swing and a few pips under the weekly open at 0.5607, with RSI(14) mid-cycle near 57.
Support: 0.5598, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.56074, 0.56133, 0.56282
What it said to watch
H1 close above the weekly open at 0.5607 and the Thu high at 0.5613 breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the week high cluster at 0.5622–0.5628 back in play
Loss of EMA(20) near 0.5598 returns price to the range floor, and an H1 close below the 0.5580 week low confirms a range break to fresh lows
US UMich sentiment and inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC, plus Collins, could materially shift this read via yields
Renewed Middle East or oil headlines lifting US yields would pressure the range base
0.5580-0.5628 weekly range, floor tested three times, lower high on Thursday.
NZDUSD has held a 48-pip range all week. Monday's Asia-session drop set the week low at 0.5580, and Tuesday's London rally capped at the 0.5628 week high. Demand stepped in again near 0.5585 on Wednesday and at the 0.5582 Thursday low. Thursday's NY bounce came as the USD eased after Trump's Iran comments; it spiked to the 0.5613 Thursday high, beyond the 61.8% of the Tue–Thu fib, but met rejection. That leaves a lower high under the lower-highs line, with price back just below the weekly open, above a flattening EMA(20) at 0.5598 and RSI(14) near 54.
Support: 0.55977, 0.55815, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.56074, 0.56133, 0.56282
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5580 week low, after a third test via the Thursday low, would mark a range break to the downside
H1 close above the 0.5613 Thursday high and the lower-highs line reopens the 0.5628 week high
Failure to hold the EMA(20) near 0.5598 returns focus to the range floor
Acceptance above the weekly open at 0.5607 would put price back in the upper half of the Tue–Thu fib
Fri 14:00 UTC UoM sentiment and inflation expectations, plus US long-end yields, could materially shift this read
0.5580–0.5628 range, double low holding at range floor.
NZDUSD has ranged 0.5580–0.5628 since Monday's open. Tuesday's NY rally to the week high fully unwound into Wednesday as higher yields and oil lifted the USD. Thursday's London dip held 0.5582, just above Monday's 0.5580 week low, and the NY-session bounce reclaimed EMA(20) near 0.5598 but was rejected at the 0.5613 thu high, extending the run of lower highs. Price now sits at the 50% fib of the Tue–Thu drop, just under the 0.5607 weekly open, with RSI(14) flat near 51.
Support: 0.55977, 0.55854, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.56074, 0.56133, 0.56282
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 0.5613 thu high and the lower-highs line opens the 0.5628 week high
Failure to hold the 0.5598 ema20 puts the 0.5585 wed low and the 0.5580 range floor back in focus
A break below the 0.5580 week low turns the double low into a range break lower
Fri 14:00 UTC Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations, plus oil and Iran headlines, could materially shift this read
0.5580–0.5628 weekly range with lower highs pressing toward a flat floor.
NZDUSD has held a 0.5580–0.5628 range since the 0.56074 weekly open. Tuesday's NY-session rally to the 0.5628 week high unwound through London on Wednesday as oil and US yields climbed and USD stayed bid. Thursday's London dip held just above Monday's 0.5580 week low. The NY bounce to 0.5613 (thu high) was rejected just above the 61.8% retracement of the Tue–Thu drop, leaving another lower high. Price is hovering at the ema20 near 0.5596, beneath a flat EMA50 and the weekly open, with RSI(14) neutral around 46.
Support: 0.5596, 0.5581
Resistance: 0.5607, 0.5613, 0.5628
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5580 week low breaks the range floor and confirms a lower-low
Close above the 0.5613 thu high and the descending lower-highs line reopens the weekly open and 0.5628 week high
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC and Friday's Michigan sentiment/inflation expectations could shift USD via yields
Loss of the ema20 at 0.5596 keeps price pinned toward the range floor
16:04 UTC
Range-bound, lower highs pressing on support · RSI 43 · price 0.55927
0.5580–0.5628 weekly range, lower highs since Tuesday.
NZD/USD has held a 0.5580–0.5628 range all week. Lower highs have followed Tuesday's 0.5628 week high as rising US yields, firmer oil and hawkish FOMC minutes kept USD supported. Today's NY-session spike to the 0.5613 ny high stalled at the lower-highs trendline and just above the 61.8% retracement of the week's drop, and price is back under the ema20 near 0.5595 with RSI(14) around 43. Demand has held the week low near 0.5580, the Nov-2025 low, on Monday and again during London hours today.
Support: 0.5582
Resistance: 0.5595, 0.5613, 0.5628
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5580–0.5582 week low breaks the range and confirms a fresh lower-low
Sustained trade back above the ema20 at 0.5595 eases near-term pressure on the range floor
Close above the 0.5613 ny high and the lower-highs trendline exposes the 0.5628 week high
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC and Friday's Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations could materially shift the USD side of this read
0.5580–0.5628 range with lower highs pressing a flat floor.
NZDUSD has held a 0.5580–0.5628 range all week, but the highs are falling: the week high came in Tuesday's NY session, Wednesday's high sat just below it, and the slide since then tracks firmer US yields and a supported USD after the FOMC minutes. Thursday's London leg, which continued after Breman's speech with little reaction, retested the week low near 0.5580 and found demand again. The NY-session bounce reached the thu high at 0.5613, roughly the 70% retracement of the wed-thu drop, before fading back below the weekly open; price is now just above ema20, with RSI(14) near 54.
Support: 0.55969, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.56074, 0.56133, 0.56282
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5580 week low breaks the range floor and exposes 0.5555
H1 close above the 0.5613 thu high breaks the lower highs line and reopens the 0.5628 week high
Failure to hold ema20 near 0.5597 returns focus to the range floor
Repeated rejection at the weekly open around 0.5607 keeps the lower-highs sequence intact
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC and Friday's UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could shift USD and yields
14:04 UTC
Sideways inside a weekly range, lower highs since Tuesday · RSI 50 · price 0.55978
Range 0.5580–0.5628 with lower highs and a flat floor.
From the 0.5607 weekly open, NZDUSD dropped to the 0.5580 week low during Monday's Asia session. Tuesday's London-NY rally to the 0.5628 week high was sold through Wednesday and again in this morning's London session as US yields pushed back toward 2002 highs, oil rose and the FOMC minutes kept USD bid. That leaves lower highs at 0.5626 and 0.5609 against a flat floor, and Thursday's 0.5582 low held one pip above Monday's. The bounce into NY has stalled at the ema cluster near 0.5599, where EMA20 and EMA50 sit with the 38.2% retracement of the decline, while RSI(14) is neutral at about 50.
Support: 0.55815, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.5599, 0.56074, 0.56282
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 0.5580 week low breaks the range floor and confirms a lower-low
Rejection at the ema cluster near 0.5599, or at the lower highs line near 0.5602, keeps the descending-highs read intact
An H1 close above the 0.5607 weekly open invalidates the lower highs line and reopens 0.5622–0.5628 toward the week high
Fed's Kashkari (14:40 UTC) and Musalem (17:40 UTC) could shift this read through US yields
0.5580–0.5628 range, lower highs compressing toward the floor.
NZDUSD has rotated inside a 0.5580–0.5628 range all week. Tuesday's London rally to the 0.5628 week high met rejection and gave way to lower highs at 0.5626 and 0.5609, as rising US yields and oil-driven risk aversion kept the USD bid. Thursday's London slide printed a 0.55815 thu low just above Monday's 0.5580 week low, with price now below EMA(20) near 0.5594, RSI(14) around 38, and the 0.5609 thu high sitting on both the 61.8% retracement of the Tuesday–Thursday drop and the lower-highs trendline.
Support: 0.55815, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.5594, 0.56093, 0.56282
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5580 week low breaks the range floor and confirms a fresh lower-low
Recovery above EMA(20) at 0.5594 and the 0.5609 thu high would break the lower-highs trendline and reopen the 0.5628 week high
Pending jobless claims print, then Kashkari at 14:40 UTC and Musalem at 17:40 UTC, could shift USD via yields
Friday's 14:00 UTC Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations are the next high-impact USD risk
12:03 UTC
Sideways to heavy, lower highs since Tuesday · RSI 35 · price 0.55859
Range 0.5580–0.5628, lower highs onto flat lows.
NZD/USD has held a 0.5580–0.5628 range all week. Tuesday's NY-session week high at 0.5628 gave way to lower highs on Wednesday and Thursday as oil-driven gains in US yields and hawkish FOMC minutes kept USD bid. Thursday's Asia bounce stalled at the 0.5609 Thu high, near the 61.8% fib of the week-high-to-session-low drop, and the London session faded it to a 0.5582 session low. That puts price back on Monday's 0.5580 week low, below the ema20 and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 35.
Support: 0.55815, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.5596, 0.56093, 0.56282
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 0.5580 week low and 0.5582 session low breaks the range floor and the flat lows line.
Recovery above the ema20 near 0.5596 and the lower-highs line toward the 0.5609 Thu high would ease the lower-highs read.
Only a close above the 0.5628 week high reopens the top of the range.
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, then Kashkari at 14:40 UTC, could materially shift this read at the range low.
11:04 UTC
Range-bound, sliding to the floor · RSI 38 · price 0.55875
Lower highs since Tuesday into a flat 0.5580-0.5586 floor.
NZD/USD has traded a 0.5580–0.5628 range since Monday's open. Tuesday's NY-session push to the 0.5628 week high has given way to lower highs: 0.5626 early Wednesday, then 0.5609 in Thursday's Asia session (thu high), with London selling taking price back below the EMA(20) near 0.5595 and nearly fully retracing the Mon-Tue rally. Hawkish FOMC minutes, 2002-high US yields and firmer oil keep USD bid, and price now sits just above the 0.5585 wed low and the 0.5580 week low (the Nov-2025 low), with RSI(14) near 38 and not yet oversold.
Support: 0.55854, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.5595, 0.56093, 0.56282
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5580 week low breaks the range floor and confirms a lower-low
Failure to hold the 0.5585 wed low leaves only the week low as the remaining floor
Recovery above the EMA(20) near 0.5595 and the 0.5609 thu high breaks the lower-high trendline
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could materially shift this read via yields
10:03 UTC
Sideways at the range floor, below both EMAs · RSI 40 · price 0.55896
0.5580–0.5628 range; lower high at 0.5609 against rising lows.
Monday's Asia-session drop set the week low at 0.5580. Tuesday's London-NY rally to the 0.5628 week high has since given back almost 80% on hawkish FOMC minutes and US yields near 2002 highs, with Wednesday's NY-hours slide stopping at the 0.5585 wed low. Thursday's Asia push stalled at 0.5609, a lower high, and Breman at 08:00 UTC drew only a muted reaction. Price has drifted back under the ema20 near 0.5596 with RSI(14) near 40, pressing the rising-lows line from Monday.
Support: 0.55854, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.5596, 0.56093, 0.56282
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5585 wed low breaks the rising-lows line and puts the 0.5580 week low (Nov-2025 low) in play
Recovery back above the ema20 at 0.5596 and through the 0.5609 lower high would undo Thursday's failed push and point back toward the 0.5628 week high
Lower-highs line from Tuesday's peak converging with the rising lows: a range break is likely to resolve it
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and Kashkari at 14:40 UTC today could materially shift this read via yields
Tue rally fib: price sits near the 78.6% retracement at ~0.5590, and a loss of it leaves little of the Tuesday move intact
0.5580–0.5628 weekly range, compressing between lower highs and higher lows.
Tuesday's London-NY rally to the 0.5628 week high was fully reversed on Wednesday as oil and US yields climbed. The slide held at the 0.5585 wed low, above Monday's 0.5580 week low. Rebounds since have printed lower highs at 0.5606 and 0.5609, stalling at the 50–61.8% retracement of the Wednesday slide and around the 0.5607 weekly open. Price is below EMA(20) near 0.5598 and below EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 41, and is holding the 0.5591 thu low into London open along a line of higher lows.
Support: 0.5591, 0.5585, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5598, 0.5607, 0.5628
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5580 week low breaks the range floor and the higher lows line
Loss of the 0.5591 thu low exposes the 0.5585 wed low
Close back above the ema20 and the 0.5607 weekly open, through the lower highs trendline, negates the lower-high sequence and puts the 0.5628 week high back in view
Breman (08:00 UTC) and Waller (08:30 UTC) speak now, and US claims are due at 12:30 UTC; any of these could materially shift this read
NZDUSD has held a 0.5580–0.5628 band since Monday. The week low printed at 0.5580 in Monday's NY session, and Tuesday's London-NY rally to the 0.5628 week high was fully unwound Wednesday as US yields pushed back toward 2002 highs and FOMC minutes kept the USD firm. Thursday's Asia bounce stalled at the 0.5609 thu high, inside the 50–61.8% retrace of the tue-wed decline, and early London has pushed price back below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 41, leaving lower highs pressing against higher lows above the wed low.
Support: 0.55854, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.55985, 0.56093, 0.56282
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5585 wed low breaks the higher-lows line; failure at the 0.5580 week low puts the YTD-low area in play
Recovery above the ema20 near 0.5598 and the 0.5609 thu high would break the lower-highs line and the tue-wed decline retrace cap
0.5628 week high is the range top; a close above ends the lower-highs sequence
RBNZ Breman at 08:00 UTC and Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC, then US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
0.5580–0.5628 weekly range with descending highs and a flat floor.
NZD/USD has held a 0.5580–0.5628 range since Monday's open. Monday's NY low printed the 0.5580 YTD low, and Wednesday's NY selloff stalled at the 0.5585 wed low as surging US yields kept the USD bid. Highs keep stepping lower, from Friday's NFP spike at 0.5643 to Tuesday's 0.5628 week high and Thursday's 0.5609 Asia high, and Thursday's bounce faded between the 50% and 61.8% of the Tue–Wed drop, just above the 0.5607 weekly open. Price now sits under EMA(20) at 0.5601 with RSI(14) near 46 and hourly ranges compressed to roughly 6–7 pips.
Support: 0.55854, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.56008, 0.56074, 0.56282
What it said to watch
RBNZ Governor Breman at 08:00 UTC could reset October hike odds (~58% priced) and materially shift this read
H1 close below the 0.5585 wed low and the 0.5580 YTD low breaks the range floor
Reclaim of EMA(20) and the 0.5607 weekly open breaks the lower highs sequence; the 0.5628 week high is the range top
Waller at 08:30 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC tie direction back to US yields during NY hours
0.5580–0.5628 weekly range, lower highs and marginal higher lows contracting.
The week opened at 0.5607 and has rotated inside a 0.5580–0.5628 range. Monday's Asia-session drop set the week low, Tuesday's London-NY rally set the week high, and both moves were fully reversed. Wednesday's London-into-NY slide, on firmer US yields and hawkish Fed signals, retraced Tuesday's leg to 0.5585 for a marginal higher low. Thursday's Asia bounce then stalled at 0.5609, just under the 61.8% level of the tue-wed fib. Price is pinned between EMA(20) and EMA(50) near 0.5603, with RSI(14) at 48 and ATR(14) compressed to about 6 pips. That coiling sits beneath a line of lower highs from Friday's NFP spike and above a line of higher lows from Monday's week low.
Support: 0.55928, 0.55854, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.56074, 0.56093, 0.56282
What it said to watch
RBNZ Governor Breman at 08:00 UTC is the swing factor for October hike odds and could break the range either way
An H1 close above the 0.5609 asia high and the weekly open reopens the 0.5628 week high and the lower highs trendline
Failure to hold the 0.5593 asia low exposes the 0.5585 wed low, then the 0.5580 week low and a YTD-low test
A break of the higher lows line from the week low would end the contraction read
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC can reprice USD into NY hours
Lower highs since Tuesday and higher lows since Monday, contracting 0.5580–0.5628 range.
NZDUSD has held a 0.5580–0.5628 range since Monday's Asia-session drop toward the week low. Tuesday's London-led rally stalled at the tue high, and Wednesday's slide into the NY open stopped at the wed low as US yields pushed to 2002 highs around the FOMC minutes. Lower highs and higher lows are now compressing price around ema20 (0.5602) and the 38.2% fib of the nfp high-to-week low leg, just under the weekly open at 0.5607, with RSI(14) near 54 showing little momentum either way.
Support: 0.5602, 0.5585, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5607, 0.5628, 0.5643
What it said to watch
H1 close above the lower-highs trendline and weekly open (0.5607–0.5609) opens the tue high at 0.5628
Failure to hold the wed low and week low (0.5585–0.5580) confirms a range break to fresh YTD lows
Higher-lows trendline from Monday's week low, near 0.5587, marks the base of the compression
RBNZ Governor Breman at 08:00 UTC (~4h) could materially shift this read; a hawkish October steer brings 0.5628 and the nfp high at 0.5643 into play
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC are the USD-side risks into the NY session
NZD/USD has held a 0.5580–0.5628 range since Monday's weekly open at 0.5607. Tuesday's London-NY rally to the tuesday high at 0.5628 was fully unwound in Wednesday's London session as US yields rebounded around the FOMC minutes, with lower highs now running down from the Friday nfp high at 0.5643 against higher lows from the week low at 0.5580 to the wed low at 0.5585. Price is back above the 0.5600 round number and EMA(20) but just under EMA(50), and the Asia push stalled at 0.5609 near the 50% retracement of the wed decline fib.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55854, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.56074, 0.56282, 0.56427
What it said to watch
RBNZ Governor Breman at 08:00 UTC, then Waller 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims 12:30 UTC, could break the range in either direction
H1 close back above the 0.5607 weekly open and the 50% of the wed decline fib shifts focus to the 0.5628 tuesday high
H1 close above the 0.5628 tuesday high breaks the lower-highs line from the nfp high
Loss of the 0.5600 round number exposes the 0.5585 wed low and the higher-lows line
H1 close below the 0.5580 week low ends the range read and prints a fresh weekly low
0.5580-0.5628 range; Wed low held above Mon low, lower highs since Fri.
The week opened at 0.5607. Monday's Asia selloff and NY extension printed the week low at 0.5580, then Tuesday's London-led bounce stalled at 0.5628. Yield-driven USD strength pushed price back down to 0.5585 into NY on Wednesday, holding just above Monday's low and tracing a potential double bottom against a series of lower highs from the 0.5643 NFP high. Price has now recovered to the 50% retracement of the Tue-Wed drop near the weekly open. It sits marginally above a flat EMA(20) around 0.5600, and RSI(14) is recovering into the high 50s.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55854, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.56074, 0.56282, 0.56427
What it said to watch
RBNZ Governor Breman speech at 08:00 UTC (~6h) could materially shift this read and the range edges
Waller at 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC; NZD has tracked US yields all week
H1 acceptance above the weekly open at 0.5607 and the 50% of the Tue-Wed drop keeps the bounce structure intact
H1 close above 0.5628, the week high, confirms the double bottom and breaks the lower highs sequence
Failure to hold the ema20 near 0.5600 exposes the wed low at 0.5585; a break of the 0.5580 week low ends the range floor read
Contracting range 0.5580–0.5628, lower highs vs higher lows.
NZD/USD has chopped inside a 0.5580–0.5628 range since Monday's open. Tuesday's NY-session push to the week high was rejected and fully unwound on Wednesday through the London-NY transition as US yields rebounded. The swings are compressing: the Wednesday low at 0.5585 held above the 0.5580 week low along a higher-low line, while a lower-high line from 0.5626 now caps near 0.5598. Price sits below EMA20 at 0.5601 and the 0.5607 week open, with RSI(14) at 44 and ATR down to about 6 pips in Asia ahead of Breman.
Support: 0.55854, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.56007, 0.56074, 0.56282
What it said to watch
H1 close above the lower-high line and EMA20 near 0.5601, holding the 61.8% of the Monday low–Tuesday high leg, puts the 0.5607 week open back in play
Failure to hold the 0.5585 Wednesday low and the higher-low line exposes the 0.5580 week low near YTD lows
RBNZ Governor Breman at 08:00 UTC (~7h), Fed's Waller at 08:30 and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could break the compression
Sustained trade back above the 0.5628 week high invalidates the range read
00:04 UTC
Range-bound, pinned under EMA(20) · RSI 47 · price 0.55998
0.5580–0.5628 range, lower highs vs marginal higher low.
Since the 0.5607 weekly open the pair has rotated inside a 0.5580–0.5628 range: Monday's Asia-session drop set the week low at 0.5580, and Tuesday's NY bounce stalled at the 0.5628 Tuesday high, a lower high under Friday's faded NFP spike to 0.5643. Wednesday's slide into the London-NY transition, on rebounding US yields and hawkish FOMC minutes, held at the 0.5585 Wednesday low for a marginal higher low. The recovery has since stalled near the 50% retracement of the Tue-Wed fib around 0.5606, with price pinned just under EMA(20) at 0.5601 and RSI(14) flat near 47.
Support: 0.55854, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.56012, 0.56074, 0.56282
What it said to watch
RBNZ Governor Breman speaks at 08:00 UTC (~8h): a shift in Oct-28 hike odds could break either edge of the range
H1 close below the 0.5580 week low breaks the higher-lows line and the range floor
H1 hold above EMA(20) and the 0.5607 weekly open would point to a retest of the Tuesday high at 0.5628
A break above the 0.5628 Tuesday high clears the lower-highs trendline from Friday's spike
Fed's Waller (08:30 UTC) and US jobless claims (12:30 UTC) feed the US yields driver