NZDUSD has been boxed between the 0.5582 week low and the 0.5626–0.5628 range cap. Tuesday's high and Friday's Asia-session high were both rejected at the cap, and Wednesday's London-NY selloff reached the week low on Thursday before NY-hours buying stepped in. Price closes the week at 0.5615, just above the ema20 at about 0.5612, as easing US yields and a softer Michigan print gave the Kiwi modest support. The early-NY dip on Friday held at the friday low, near the 50% retracement of the Thu-Fri rally, leaving a higher low inside the range.
Support: 0.5612, 0.5601, 0.5582
Resistance: 0.5627, 0.5630
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5627 range cap and the 0.5630 round number would break the week's range
Loss of the 0.5601 friday low breaks the higher lows line and exposes the 0.5582 week low
Sustained H1 trade below the ema20 at 0.5612 would flatten the Thu-Fri rally structure
US CPI Wed Oct 14 and RBNZ Breman Thu Oct 15 could materially shift this read; weekend gap risk from US yields and oil
0.5582–0.5628 range, higher low off Thursday's week low.
NZDUSD has spent the week boxed between Thursday's NY-session week low at 0.5582 and Tuesday's NY week high at 0.5628. Easing US yields after the 30-year auction and Waller's remarks drove the Thursday–Friday rally, but Friday's high at 0.5627 was rejected just under the range cap in the Asia session. The London-NY dip then held a higher low at 0.5601, between the 50% and 61.8% retracement, and price is back above ema20 near 0.5611 with RSI(14) in the mid-50s.
Support: 0.5611, 0.56012, 0.55815
Resistance: 0.56265, 0.56282
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5628 week high and Friday's high would break the range cap that has held three tests this week
Loss of the 0.5601 higher low and the higher-low trendline puts the 0.5582 week low back in play
Sustained trade back below ema20 at 0.5611 would show the Thursday–Friday rally stalling under the range cap
US CPI Wed Oct 14 and RBNZ Breman Thu Oct 15 could materially shift this range read next week
0.5582–0.5628 range; Friday higher low under a flat top.
NZDUSD has rotated inside a 0.5582–0.5628 range since Tuesday. Tuesday's NY-session rally stalled at the 0.5628 week high, and Thursday's dip to the 0.5582 thursday low reversed during NY hours as US yields pulled back after the strong 30-year auction. Friday's Asia push met rejection at 0.5627, just under the week high; the London-NY pullback held the 0.5601 swing low, between the 50% and 61.8% retracements of the Thursday-Friday leg, and price has since edged back above the ema20 at 0.5609 with RSI(14) near 54 and ATR(14) about 6–7 pips.
Support: 0.5609, 0.5601, 0.5582
Resistance: 0.5617, 0.5627, 0.5630
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5617 session high reopens the 0.5627 week high and the 0.5630 range cap
Failure to hold the 0.5601 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 0.5582 thursday low
Repeated H1 closes below the ema20 at 0.5609 would turn the Friday recovery back into range-middle chop
US CPI Wed Oct 14 12:30 UTC and RBNZ Breman Thu Oct 15 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read
0.5582–0.5628 weekly range; Friday lower high, higher low off Thursday.
NZDUSD has been boxed between the 0.5582 week low and the 0.5628 week high since Tuesday. Thursday's London-session lower low was reversed in NY, and Friday's Asia-session rally on softer US yields stalled just shy of the range top at 0.5627 before the USD recovered into the NY session. That fade left a lower high near 0.5617 and the Friday low at 0.5601, with price now flat on EMA(20), RSI(14) near 52, and holding roughly a 41% retrace of the Thu–Fri rally fib.
Support: 0.56012, 0.55815
Resistance: 0.5617, 0.56282
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5601 friday low breaks the higher-low line and reopens the 0.5582 week low
Close above the 0.5617 lower high puts the 0.5628 week high and range top back in play
A break of the 0.5582 week low would expose the 0.5580 18-month low cited in the digest
Wednesday's US CPI and Breman's speech next Thursday could materially shift this range read
0.5582–0.5628 range; higher low Friday, lower high below week high.
NZDUSD has rotated inside a 0.5582–0.5628 range since Monday. Tuesday's 0.5628 week high marks the range top, and Thursday's London-session dip to the 0.5582 week low drew a rebound along a rising support line. Friday's Asia-session rally on easing US yields after the 30-year auction stalled at the 0.5627 asia high, a rejection just under the week high. The London-NY fade then held the 0.5601 session low, between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of the Thu-Fri rally. Price now sits on EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 53, and the soft Michigan print (46.3 vs 47.6) added little follow-through.
Support: 0.56085, 0.56012, 0.55815
Resistance: 0.56171, 0.56265, 0.56282
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.5617 london high reopens the 0.5627 asia high and the 0.5628 week high (range top)
A break of the range top would expose the 0.5630 weekly cap flagged in the macro backdrop
Failure to hold the 0.5601 session low breaks the rising support from Thursday and the 61.8% retracement of the Thu-Fri rally
A slide back to the 0.5582 week low would retest the 18-month low area
US CPI Wed Oct 14 12:30 UTC and RBNZ Breman Oct 15 could materially shift this read; lead-in Fedspeak and yield moves remain the near-term driver
0.5582–0.5628 range; Friday rally rejected below range top.
NZDUSD has held a 0.5582–0.5628 range all week. Tuesday's London-NY rally set the range top, and Thursday's London dip printed the week low at 0.5582 before an NY recovery. Friday's Asia session push to 0.5627, helped by the easing bond rout, was rejected just under the range top, and London plus the first hour of NY unwound about half of the Thursday–Friday rally to its 50% retracement near 0.5604. Price now sits just below the ema20 at 0.5608 and flat on EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 44 and little reaction to the Michigan sentiment miss.
Support: 0.5601, 0.5582
Resistance: 0.5608, 0.5617, 0.5627
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5601 friday low breaks the rising lows from Thursday and exposes the 0.5582 week low
H1 close back above the ema20 and the 0.5617 london high reopens a test of the 0.5627 range top
A sustained close above the 0.5627 range top invalidates the range read
Weekend gap risk; US CPI (Oct 14) and RBNZ Breman (Oct 15) could materially shift this read next week
0.5582–0.5628 range since Tuesday; Friday printed a lower high under the range top.
NZDUSD has rotated inside a 0.5582–0.5628 range since Tuesday. The range top capped Tuesday's NY rally and Friday's Asia push, which came after the strong US 30-year auction and Waller's remarks softened the USD. London faded that bounce, and the NY open set a lower high at 0.5617 before a drop to a 0.5601 session low, leaving price just under EMA(20) at 0.5609 and resting on EMA(50) with RSI(14) neutral near 52.
Support: 0.5601, 0.5596, 0.5582
Resistance: 0.5609, 0.5617, 0.5627
What it said to watch
US Michigan sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 0.5627 range top (digest cap 0.5630) invalidates the range read
H1 close below the 0.5582 week low breaks the range floor and exposes 0.5555
Loss of the 0.5601 session low and 0.5596 day low takes price past the 61.8% of the Thursday-to-Friday leg
Reclaim of EMA(20) at 0.5609 brings the 0.5617 lower high back into focus
12:05 UTC
Sideways, recovering from range base · RSI 61 · price 0.56163
0.5580–0.5628 range; Friday higher low off Thursday's base.
The pair has held a 0.5580–0.5628 range all week. Monday's low at 0.5580 was defended again Thursday at 0.5582 during London hours. Tuesday's London-NY push and Friday's Asia session bounce both stalled at the range top near 0.5627–0.5628. Friday's lift came as the strong 30-year auction and Trump's Iran pledge eased yields and softened USD. The London pullback found the pullback low at 0.5608, the 38.2% retracement of the Thursday–Friday leg. Price is back above EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 61.
Support: 0.56079, 0.55958, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.56265, 0.5630
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5627–0.5628 range top, then the 0.5630 round number, breaks the weekly range read
Loss of the 0.5608 pullback low and the rising support line puts the daily open at 0.5596 back in play
A return below the daily open re-exposes the 0.5580 week low and range base
US UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC today could materially shift this read
11:05 UTC
Range-bound, Friday rebound fading below range top · RSI 54 · price 0.56092
0.5580–0.5628 range; Friday higher low at 0.5596, second rejection under 0.5628.
NZDUSD has held a 0.5580–0.5628 range all week. Thursday's London dip to 0.5582 stopped just above Monday's 0.5580 week low, and the Asia-session run to 0.5627 came as easing yields after the 30Y auction took some heat out of the USD. That rally stalled just under Tuesday's 0.5628 range top, the second rejection there this week. London has since faded the move back to 0.5609, where price sits on EMA(20) and the 38.2% fib of the Thursday–Friday leg, with RSI(14) back near 54 and EMA(50) at 0.5605 just below.
Support: 0.5609, 0.5596, 0.5581
Resistance: 0.5627, 0.5630
What it said to watch
UoM Consumer Sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC (f/c 47.6) could materially shift this read via US yields
H1 close above the 0.5627 range top and the 0.5630 round number invalidates the range read
Loss of the 0.5596 friday low and the 61.8% fib near 0.5599 breaks the higher-low sequence and puts the 0.5581 week low back in play
Sustained trade below EMA(20) at 0.5609 turns the Friday leg into a full retracement within the range
0.5581–0.5628 range with equal lows and equal highs.
NZDUSD has been boxed all week between the 0.5581 range floor, set Monday and retested Thursday during London, and the 0.5627 range top. That top capped Tuesday's London-NY rally and again rejected Friday's Asia-session push. The bounce off Thursday's low came as US yields eased after the 30-year auction and the USD softened. The pullback since stalls near the 38.2% level of the Thursday low–Friday high fib and the ema20 around 0.5609, with RSI(14) holding near 58.
Support: 0.5609, 0.5600, 0.5581
Resistance: 0.5627, 0.5630
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5627 range top and 0.5630 psych level breaks the week's equal highs and invalidates the range read
Loss of ema20 and the 0.5600 round number opens a return toward the 0.5581 range floor
A close below the 0.5581 range floor marks a fresh lower low at 18-month lows
US UoM Consumer Sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read via yields
0.5580–0.5628 weekly range; lower high under range top.
NZDUSD has held a 0.5580–0.5628 range all week. Thursday's London dip to 0.5582 held above Monday's week low, and Friday's Asia-session rally on easing US yields after the strong 30-year auction stalled at 0.5627, just under Tuesday's range top. The pullback through the London open has brought price back to 0.5609, where EMA(20) (~0.5609) and the 38.2% level of the Thu–Fri fib sit together; RSI(14) has eased to ~52 from the high 60s, and Thursday's NY high at 0.5613 now caps price.
Support: 0.56088, 0.5600, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.56133, 0.56282
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the thu high at 0.5613 reopens the range top at 0.5628
H1 close above 0.5628 range top would break the weekly range, with 0.5630 the next cap
Failure to hold ema20 and the 38.2% of the Thu–Fri fib exposes the 50% at 0.5604 and the 0.5600 round number
Loss of 0.5600 round number shifts focus to the 0.5580 week low (range floor)
US Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC today could materially shift this read
08:04 UTC
Range-bound, Friday up-leg stalling below range top · RSI 59 · price 0.56133
0.5580–0.5628 range since Monday; floor held Mon, Wed and Thu.
NZDUSD has held a 0.5580–0.5628 range all week. Monday's week low at 0.5580 was revisited during Thursday's London session, when oil and yields rose on Middle East tension, and the range floor held again at 0.5582. Easing Treasury yields and Waller's no-rush message lifted the pair through Friday's Asia session to the friday high at 0.5627, just under Tuesday's NY week high at 0.5628. Price met rejection there and has slipped back toward ema20 near 0.5609, which sits on the 38.2% retracement of the thu-fri leg.
Support: 0.5609, 0.5600, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.56265, 0.56282
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5628 week high breaks the range top and invalidates the range read
Failure to hold ema20 / 38.2% of the thu-fri leg near 0.5609 exposes the 0.5600 round number
A break of the 0.5580 week low along the range floor would mark a fresh cycle low
US UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC today could materially shift this read
0.5580–0.5628 weekly range; Friday Asia push rejected at range top.
NZDUSD has held a 0.5581–0.5628 range all week. Monday's week low was retested near 0.5582 during Thursday's London session on the oil and yields spike, then reversed in NY hours. The Asia session rally on Friday, helped by easing Treasury yields and Waller's no-rush tone, carried price back to the range top at 0.5627, where it was rejected. Price sits above EMA(20) near 0.5609 and a rising trendline off Thursday's low, with the 50% retracement of the Thursday–Friday leg near 0.5604 and the 0.5600 round number below.
Support: 0.5609, 0.5600, 0.5581
Resistance: 0.5627
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5627 range top (Tuesday/Friday highs) breaks the weekly range
H1 close below EMA(20) at 0.5609 and the rising trendline returns price to the range middle
Loss of the 0.5600 round number exposes the 0.5581 week low
US UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
06:04 UTC
Range-bound, rebounding into range top · RSI 68 · price 0.56203
0.5580–0.5628 weekly range; higher lows since Thursday's London low.
NZD/USD has held a 0.5580–0.5628 range all week. Lows at Monday's 0.5580 week low and Thursday's 0.5582 London-session low form a double bottom, while Tuesday's London-to-NY rally set the 0.5628 week high. Friday's Asia session extended the rebound to a 0.56265 Asia high as softer US yields, Waller's 'no immediate hike' remarks and the Iran pause weighed on the USD. Price sits above a rising EMA(20) near 0.5609 with RSI(14) near 68, pressing the range top without a close through it.
Support: 0.5609, 0.5600, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.56265, 0.56282
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5628 week high confirms the double-bottom neckline break and ends the range read
Rejection at the 0.56265 Asia high and a slip back below the ema20 near 0.5609 (38.2% of the thu-fri leg) keeps the range intact
Loss of the 0.5600 round number and the higher-lows trendline puts the 0.5580 week low back in focus
US UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC, plus Fed's Collins, could materially shift this read via yields
05:05 UTC
Range-bound, short-term rebound toward range top · RSI 67 · price 0.56215
0.5580–0.5628 weekly range, higher lows since Thursday's low.
NZDUSD has held a 0.5580–0.5628 range all week. Monday, Wednesday and Thursday each printed a low near 0.5580–0.5585 during London hours, and the week high at 0.5628 came on Tuesday's NY session. Thursday's oil-driven slide to 0.5582 reversed in NY, and softer US yields after Waller's comments carried a Thursday-Friday rally of higher lows through the Asia session to 0.5621. That puts price above EMA(20), with RSI(14) near 67, and back under the 0.5628 week high, which is the neckline of a possible triple bottom.
Support: 0.5607, 0.5600, 0.5582
Resistance: 0.5628
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 0.5628 week high breaks the range top and confirms the triple bottom neckline
A break of the higher lows line and ema20 near 0.5607 exposes the 0.5600 psych level, near the 61.8% retracement of the Thu-Fri rally
Failure to hold the 0.5580 week low ends the range read and puts a lower-low in place
US UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC today could materially shift this read via US yields
04:04 UTC
Range-bound, rebounding from range lows · RSI 64 · price 0.56182
0.5580–0.5628 weekly range; higher lows off Thursday's 0.55815 low.
NZD/USD has held a roughly 48-pip range all week, from Monday's 0.55801 week low to Tuesday's 0.56282 week high. Thursday's London-session drop to 0.55815 came as higher oil lifted yields. The pair then reversed through NY hours and into Friday's Asia session as Iran de-escalation and Waller's softer tone weighed on the USD, building a sequence of higher lows that leaves Monday and Thursday as a potential double bottom. Price now sits at the 78.6% retracement of the Tuesday–Thursday decline, above EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 64, and just under the 0.5622–0.5628 res cluster.
Support: 0.56104, 0.56045, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.5622, 0.56282
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5622–0.5628 res cluster and the 0.56282 week high breaks the range top and completes the double bottom
Loss of the 61.8% fib at 0.5610 and ema20 near 0.5604 would break Thursday's higher lows and return price to mid-range rotation
Failure to hold the 0.55801 week low would put the range-bottom read under pressure
US Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC (~10h) could materially shift this read via yields
03:04 UTC
Range-bound, short-term recovery off the lows · RSI 64 · price 0.5616
0.5580–0.5628 weekly range; double bottom with rising lows since Thursday.
NZDUSD has held a 0.5580–0.5628 range all week. Thursday's London-session dip to 0.5582 stalled at Monday's 0.5580 week low, leaving a double bottom. The NY-session rebound came as the USD softened on easing yields and Waller's remarks, and it extended in the Asia session to the 0.5618 asia high, the 78.6% retrace of the Tuesday–Thursday drop. Price is back above EMA(20) near 0.5604 with RSI(14) at 64, and rising lows since Thursday frame the bounce beneath the 0.5628 week high.
Support: 0.5610, 0.5604, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5618, 0.5628
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5628 week high completes the double bottom and breaks the range top
Repeated stalls at the 0.5618 asia high keep the rebound contained inside the range
Loss of the 61.8% fib at 0.5610 and the rising lows line brings EMA(20) at 0.5604 back into play
Failure to hold the 0.5580 week low invalidates the double bottom read
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC today could materially shift this read via US yields
0.5580–0.5628 weekly range, rising lows since Thursday.
NZDUSD has held a 0.5580–0.5628 range all week. Tuesday's NY-session push to the week high was unwound through Wednesday as oil-driven US yield spikes revived USD demand. Thursday's London dip stalled at 0.5582, just above Monday's 0.5580 week low, and rising lows since then have lifted price back above ema20 near 0.5602 into a 0.5618 Asia high. RSI(14) at 62 sits in the upper half, and price has reclaimed the 61.8% fib of the 0.5628–0.5582 drop at 0.5610.
Support: 0.5602, 0.5590, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5618, 0.5628
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5628 week high completes the double bottom and breaks the range top
Rejection at the 0.5618 Asia high keeps the range intact; a slide back below ema20 at 0.5602 and the 0.5590 swing low breaks the rising lows
Failure at the 0.5580 week low, also the 18-month low, negates the double bottom
Prelim UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC today, plus Iran strike headlines, could materially shift this read
01:05 UTC
Sideways, mild recovery off range floor · RSI 60 · price 0.56075
0.5580–0.5628 range, lower highs since Tuesday.
NZDUSD has held a 0.5580–0.5628 range all week. Monday's week low near 0.5580 was defended again on Wednesday and Thursday during London hours, while each rebound since Tuesday's NY-session week high has printed a lower high, with US yield pressure and oil capping the kiwi. Price has recovered above the ema20 near 0.5600 and sits between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of the Tuesday–Thursday drop, just under the thu high at 0.5613 set in the first hour of NY yesterday.
Support: 0.5600, 0.5581
Resistance: 0.56133, 0.56282
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5613 thu high breaks the lower-high trendline and puts the 0.5628 week high back in play
Loss of the ema20 at 0.5600 returns price to the lower half of the range
Close below the 0.5580 week low ends the range read and marks a fresh 18-month low
US Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations (Fri 14:00 UTC) and Iran/oil headlines could materially shift this read
0.5580–0.5628 week range; double low at 0.5580–0.5582 under a lower-highs line.
NZD/USD has held a 0.5580–0.5628 range all week. Tuesday's London-to-NY push set the 0.5628 week high, then faded through Wednesday, while Thursday's London dip to 0.5582 held just above Monday's week low before the NY session lifted price as oil eased on Trump's Iran comments. Price now sits at the 50% fib of the Tuesday–Thursday decline near 0.5605 and just above EMA(20) around 0.5600, with RSI(14) near 58; a lower-highs line from the week high runs near 0.5610 and rejected the Thu high at 0.5613.
Support: 0.5600, 0.5581
Resistance: 0.5613, 0.5628
What it said to watch
H1 close above the lower-highs line and the Thu high at 0.5613 opens the path back to the 0.5628 week high
Failure to hold EMA(20) at 0.5600 returns focus to the 0.5580–0.5582 week low
An H1 close below the 0.5580 week low invalidates the double bottom and marks a range break
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations plus Fed's Collins (Fri 14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read