Tight early-Asia consolidation at 0.5600 after NY retraced part of the London slide.
London drove a slide from 0.5622 to a 0.5585 day low before a NY bounce reached the 0.5606 NY high around the hawkish FOMC minutes, which faded as yields eased. Early Asia is now compressing a few pips either side of 0.5600, holding above the 0.5593 late low (near the 61.8% fib of the NY bounce), with RSI(14) neutral near 51.
Support: 0.5593, 0.55854
Resistance: 0.56056, 0.56102
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5606 ny high opens the 0.5610 london high
Failure to hold the 0.5593 late low and 61.8% fib exposes the 0.5585 day low
RBNZ Governor Breman at 08:00 UTC and Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC could materially shift this read
23:32 UTC
Sideways after London sell-off, momentum flat · RSI 50 · price 0.55995
Higher lows off the 0.5585 day low, lower highs from the 0.5606 minutes high, compressing at 0.5600.
Early Asia session is compressing at 0.5595–0.5602 just under 0.5600, capped by lower highs after the FOMC-minutes spike to the 0.5606 minutes high was rejected as yields kept USD bid. Below, the rollover low at 0.5593 sits on the 61.8% of the NY recovery fib from the 0.5585 day low, and that recovery has not been retraced past 38.2%.
Support: 0.5593, 0.55854
Resistance: 0.56016, 0.56056, 0.56105
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5602 asian high and the lower highs line reopens the 0.5606 minutes high, then the 0.5610 london high
Failure to hold the 0.5593 rollover low (61.8% of the NY recovery fib) exposes the 0.5585 day low
RBNZ Governor Breman at 08:00 UTC and Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Tight range 0.5593–0.5606 above 0.5585 session low.
London sold off from the 0.5610 London high to a 0.5585 session low early in NY as the yield-driven USD bid held. NY recovered to the 0.5606 NY high, and price has since compressed around 0.5600 into the Asia session. The rollover low at 0.5593 held near the 61.8% fib of that recovery, and RSI(14) sits neutral near 49.
Support: 0.55928, 0.55854
Resistance: 0.56056, 0.56105
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5606 NY high opens the 0.5610 London high
Loss of the 0.5593 rollover low / 61.8% fib re-exposes the 0.5585 session low
RBNZ Governor Breman at 08:00 UTC and Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC could break the compression
Recovery from 0.5585 day low stalled; lower highs below 0.5606.
Late London tested the 0.5585 YTD-low area with a day low at 0.55854. NY then recovered to a minutes high at 0.56056 as yields eased after the hawkish FOMC minutes, but that bounce stalled well short of the 0.5610 london high. Since then lower highs into early Asia have pinned price at 0.5600 on flat EMAs, with RSI(14) near 48 and the swing low at 0.5593 sitting close to the 61.8% of the recovery fib.
Support: 0.55935, 0.55854
Resistance: 0.56056, 0.56105
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5606 minutes high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 0.5610 london high back in play
Failure to hold the 0.5593 swing low exposes a retest of the 0.5585 day low / YTD low
RBNZ Breman speech (Thu 08:00 UTC, ~9h) and Fed's Waller (08:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Asia-session digestion of the FOMC minutes via US yields is the near-term driver
London broke Asian low, NY rebuilt higher lows; now 0.5593–0.5606 range under descending highs.
London broke the Asian low at 0.5601 and the slide ran to a 0.5585 day low into the NY open as US yields surged. The NY rally carried to a 0.5606 minutes high, and the post-minutes drift found demand at the 61.8% fib near 0.5593 around rollover. Price is back at the old Asian low, pressing a line of descending highs inside a quiet late-session range.
Support: 0.5593, 0.55854
Resistance: 0.56056, 0.56105
What it said to watch
M15 close above the descending highs and 0.5606 minutes high reopens the 0.5610 london high
Loss of the 61.8% fib at 0.5593 exposes the 0.5585 day low
Asia-session digestion of hawkish FOMC minutes via US yields
RBNZ Breman speech Thu 08:00 UTC, with Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 0.5585 low, capped below 0.5606 since minutes.
Asia-London selling ran from the 0.5626 Asian high to the day low at 0.5585, the YTD low area, before NY built higher lows on the way up. The FOMC minutes spike was rejected at 0.5606, the minutes high and 50% retracement of the decline. Price is now compressing near 0.5600 at the 38.2% level as Asia opens, RSI(14) neutral near 47.
Support: 0.55975, 0.55935, 0.55854
Resistance: 0.56056, 0.56105, 0.56257
What it said to watch
M15 close below the late NY low at 0.5597 exposes the 0.5594 swing low, then the day low at 0.5585
A close above the minutes high at 0.5606 opens the London high at 0.5610 and the 61.8% retracement of the decline
Only a reclaim of the 0.5626 Asian high erases the full day's decline
RBNZ Breman 08:00 UTC and Fed's Waller 08:30 UTC (~10h) could materially shift this read
22:17 UTC
Recovering off NY low, stalling below session high · RSI 47 · price 0.56005
Higher lows from 0.5585 capped at 0.5606; tight 0.5594–0.5606 range into Asia open.
Yield-driven USD selling took the pair to 0.5585 in early NY, a test of the ytd low. Buyers stepped in there, and higher lows ran to a 0.5606 session high before stalling below the london high at 0.5610. Price is now pinned in a 0.5594–0.5606 range near the 23.6% retrace of the NY rebound as Asia opens, with ATR near 3 pips.
Support: 0.55937, 0.55854
Resistance: 0.56056, 0.56105
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5606 session high reopens the 0.5610 london high
Loss of the 0.5594 late low exposes the 0.5585 ytd low and the NY rebound fib
RBNZ Breman speech Thu 08:00 UTC and Fed's Waller 08:30 UTC could materially shift this read
US yields digesting FOMC minutes in Asia session remain the USD driver
22:04 UTC
Downtrend, NY rebound fading · RSI 36 · price 0.55949
Lower highs since 0.5606 NY high; NY trendline broken.
Asia-to-London bleed from 0.5626 broke the Asian range low near 0.5601. The slide bottomed at the 0.5585 YTD low early in NY as US yields firmed. The NY rebound met rejection at the 0.5606 NY high and has since broken the rising NY trendline, slipping past the 50% of the rebound fib into the late low at 0.5594, RSI(14) near 36.
Support: 0.55937, 0.55854
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56056, 0.56105
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5594 late low, near the 61.8% of the NY rebound fib, exposes the 0.5585 YTD low
Recovery above the 0.5600 round number and the 0.5606 NY high would negate the lower-high sequence; 0.5611 London high sits above
RBNZ Governor Breman speech Thu 08:00 UTC and Fed's Waller 08:30 UTC could materially shift this read
21:47 UTC
Down on the day, rebound from the NY low fading · RSI 38 · price 0.55972
Lower highs since the FOMC high; price sitting near the 38.2% of the NY rebound.
London broke the Asian range low at 0.5601, and the slide extended to a 0.5585 NY low in the first hour of NY. The rebound peaked at a 0.5606 fomc high into the hawkish-but-priced Minutes, then rejection set in, with lower highs taking price back under 0.5600 psych to the 38.2% retrace at 0.5598. The thin early Asia session is drifting with ATR near 2.7 pips.
Support: 0.55935, 0.55855
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56056, 0.56105
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 0.5600 psych and the descending lower-highs line negates the post-FOMC fade
Break of the 0.55935 swing low opens the 61.8% at 0.5593, then a retest of the 0.5585 ny low
Close above the 0.5606 fomc high exposes the 0.5610 london high
Breman 08:00 UTC and Waller 08:30 UTC Thursday could materially shift this read; rollover-spread wicks near 0.5593 are not structural
Lower highs off post-minutes high, holding above NY higher-low base.
London broke below its 0.5602–0.56105 range and the NY session extended that to a 0.55854 day low. Price then rebounded to the 0.56056 minutes high as yields faded after the FOMC minutes. Since then it has printed lower highs, slipped back under 0.5600 and is sitting on the 38.2% of the NY rebound near 0.5598 into the Asia session, with RSI(14) ~42 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 0.55971, 0.55931, 0.55854
Resistance: 0.56008, 0.56056, 0.56105
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.55971 swing low exposes the 61.8% fib at 0.5593, then the 0.55854 day low
Close above the 0.56008 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 0.56056 minutes high
Reclaiming the 0.56105 london high would put price back inside the London range
RBNZ's Breman at 08:00 UTC and Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC Thu could materially shift this read; US jobless claims follow at 12:30 UTC
21:17 UTC
Downtrend, NY bounce faded · RSI 41 · price 0.55976
Lower high at 0.5606 under Asian range low, drifting into rollover.
London broke the Asian range low at 0.5601 and ran to a 0.5585 session low as US yields rose. NY recovered to the 0.5606 minutes high once yields faded after the FOMC minutes, stalling at the 50% fib of the 0.5626–0.5585 drop. Price has since slipped back under the 0.5600 round number and the NY rising line, with RSI(14) near 41 into the thin rollover.
Support: 0.5593, 0.5585
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.5606, 0.5626
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5606 minutes high clears the 50% fib and negates the lower-high read
Failure to hold the 0.5593 swing low reopens the 0.5585 session low
Reclaiming the Asian range above 0.5601 puts the 0.5626 asia high back in view
RBNZ's Breman (Thu 08:00 UTC) and Fed's Waller (08:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Higher lows from 0.5585 day low under test; lower highs since the minutes bar.
London's slide to the 0.5585 day low on firm US yields was retraced into NY, but the FOMC minutes spike to the 0.5606 minutes high was rejected. Lower highs have followed, and price sits back below the 0.5600 psych level at 0.5598, on the 38.2% fib of the rebound in thin late-NY trade.
Support: 0.55967, 0.55935, 0.55854
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56056, 0.56105
What it said to watch
Close below the 0.5597 minutes low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 0.5594 swing low near the 61.8% fib
Recovery above 0.5600 psych and the descending trendline from the minutes high reopens the 0.5610 london high
Loss of the 0.5594 swing low puts the 0.5585 day low back in play
RBNZ's Breman (Thu 08:00 UTC) and Fed's Waller (08:30 UTC) could reset this range after the Asia session
Lower highs since FOMC minutes; rising NY trendline lost.
London broke below the Asian range low near 0.5601 and NY extended to a 0.5585 day low before a higher-low recovery ran into the FOMC minutes, where the 0.5606 minutes high marked a rejection. Since then price has slipped under the NY low trendline and back below the 0.5600 round number. It now sits on the 0.5598 late low, the 38.2% fib of the 0.5585–0.5606 leg, with USD firm on 24-year-high yields.
Support: 0.55978, 0.55935, 0.55854
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56056, 0.56264
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5594 swing low exposes the 61.8% fib and the 0.5585 day low
Reclaim of 0.5600 round number and the 0.5606 minutes high would restore the NY higher-low sequence
Asian high at 0.5626 is the session-range ceiling, in line with the 0.5626–0.5628 resistance cited in the digest
RBNZ Governor Breman Thu 08:00 UTC and Fed's Waller 08:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Compressing under lower highs after NY rebound; tight 0.5599–0.5606 band.
Asia faded from the 0.5626 asian high, and London broke the 0.5601 floor to a 0.5585 london low as US yields hit 24-year highs. NY rebounded to a 0.5606 ny high, but price has drifted lower since the FOMC minutes under a lower-highs line. It is now retesting the 0.5600 handle near the 0.5599 late ny low after the NY close, with ATR compressed to about 3 pips.
Support: 0.55986, 0.55935, 0.55854
Resistance: 0.56056, 0.56105, 0.56264
What it said to watch
Break below the 0.5599 late ny low exposes the 38.2% fib of the NY rebound near 0.5598 and the 0.5594 ny pullback low
Loss of 0.5594 puts the 0.5585 london low back in focus
M15 close above the lower-highs line and the 0.5606 ny high reopens 0.5610 london high
US yields after the post-minutes reversal remain the main driver into the Asia session
RBNZ Breman speech Thu 08:00 UTC and Waller 08:30 UTC could materially shift this read
NY higher-low chain from 0.5585, now retesting its rising trendline below the Asian low.
London broke the Asian low at 0.5601 and ran to a 0.5585 session low as US yields hit 24-year highs. NY then built higher lows into the FOMC Minutes swing high at 0.5606. Late-NY drift has slipped back under the Asian low and EMA20, sitting on EMA50, holding above the 38.2% of the NY rebound fib and pressing the rising trendline. RSI(14) is neutral at 53.
Support: 0.55967, 0.55935, 0.55854
Resistance: 0.56012, 0.56056, 0.56105
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5597 swing low breaks the rising trendline and the NY higher-low chain
Loss of the 0.5594 higher low exposes the 0.5585 session low
Reclaim of the 0.5601 asian low, then the 0.5606 swing high, reopens the 0.5610 london high
Breman Thu 08:00 UTC and Waller 08:30 UTC could materially shift this read
20:04 UTC
Intraday recovery from day low, stalling at 0.5600 · RSI 56 · price 0.56004
Higher lows since London low, capped below NY high.
London sold off from the Asia high at 0.5626 to a day low of 0.5585 as US yields hit 24-year highs. NY rebuilt off a chain of higher lows, but the FOMC-minutes spike was rejected at the 0.5606 NY high, almost exactly the 50% retrace of that drop. Late NY price is pinned at the 0.5600 psych level, just under EMA20, with ATR near 3 pips.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55935, 0.55854
Resistance: 0.56056, 0.56105, 0.56264
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5594 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline and puts the 0.5585 day low back in play
Close above the 0.5606 NY high and 50% fib reopens the 0.5610 london high, with the 0.5626 asia high above
Loss of the 0.5600 psych level during the Asia session would mark the NY recovery as exhausted
RBNZ Governor Breman (Thu 08:00 UTC) and Waller (08:30 UTC) could materially shift this read at the next London open
19:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, NY recovery stalling at 0.5600 · RSI 53 · price 0.56001
Higher lows off 0.5585 session low, now retesting broken Asian range low near 0.5600.
London broke the Asian range low at 0.5601 and ran to a 0.5585 session low as US yields climbed. The NY recovery then built a higher-low chain to the 0.5606 minutes high on a two-way FOMC minutes spike. Price is back at 0.5600, sitting on the rising trendline just under ema20, with the 0.5597 higher low directly below.
Support: 0.55967, 0.55854
Resistance: 0.56056, 0.56102, 0.56264
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5597 higher low breaks the rising trendline and exposes the 0.5585 session low
Close above the 0.5606 minutes high reopens the 0.5610 london high; the 0.5626 asian high sits beyond
RBNZ Governor Breman (Thu 08:00 UTC) and Fed's Waller (Thu 08:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
19:33 UTC
Intraday recovery off day low, stalling at 0.5600 · RSI 56 · price 0.56021
Higher lows since NY low, tight range above 0.5600.
NZD/USD broke below the London range in early NY and hit a 0.5585 day low as US yields spiked. It has since built rising lows back above the 0.5600 round number. The FOMC minutes spike capped at 0.5606, and late-NY price is compressing near 0.5602, around the 61.8% of the London high-to-day low drop fib. RSI(14) is neutral at 56.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55935, 0.55854
Resistance: 0.56056, 0.56105, 0.5626
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5600 round number and the NY rising lows line puts the 0.5585 day low back in play
Break above the 0.5606 FOMC high exposes the 0.5610 London high, with the 0.5626 prior high above
Breman (Thu 08:00 UTC) and Waller (Thu 08:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
19:18 UTC
Recovering from NY low, momentum flattening · RSI 56 · price 0.56014
Higher lows off 0.5585 NY low, capped at 0.5606 minutes high.
Selling from the 0.5624 asian high broke the Asian low near 0.5601 in London and ran to a 0.5585 NY low as US yields hit 24-year highs. Since then the pair has printed higher lows along a rising trendline, and the FOMC minutes bar wicked both ways between the 0.5597 minutes low and the 0.5606 minutes high. Price is back retesting the broken Asian low around 0.5601, with RSI(14) neutral.
Support: 0.55967, 0.55935, 0.55854
Resistance: 0.56056, 0.56105, 0.56245
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5606 minutes high exposes the 0.5610 london high
Break of the rising trendline and the 0.5597 minutes low turns focus to the 0.5594 swing low
Loss of the 0.5585 ny low resumes the lower-low sequence
RBNZ Breman (Thu 08:00 UTC) and Waller (08:30 UTC) could reset the read overnight
19:04 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since 12:15 UTC · RSI 61 · price 0.56032
Higher-low chain off 0.5585 day low, stalling below minutes high.
London broke below the Asian range and ran to a 0.5585 day low at 12:15 UTC. NY has since printed a higher-low chain along the rising trendline, and the FOMC minutes bar spiked to 0.5606 before price compressed in a 3-pip band just under that minutes high. Price has retraced about 70% of the drop from the 0.5611 London high despite the yield-driven USD bid.
Support: 0.55967, 0.55935, 0.55854
Resistance: 0.56056, 0.56105
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5606 minutes high exposes the 0.5611 london high
Break of the rising trendline and the 0.5597 minutes low turns the recovery back toward the 0.5594 swing low and 0.5585 day low
Breman (Thu 08:00 UTC) and Waller (08:30 UTC) could reset the read if Oct 28 hike odds or US yields move
18:47 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows through NY · RSI 63 · price 0.56037
London break of Asian low reversed; NY higher-low chain retesting 0.5601.
London broke the Asian low at 0.5601 and ran to a 0.5585 day low as US 10y yields hit 5.35%. NY has carved a rising trendline of higher lows off that low and is back above the Asian low. The FOMC minutes bar spiked to 0.5606 (minutes high) and was capped below the 0.5610 London high.
Support: 0.56012, 0.55967, 0.55854
Resistance: 0.56056, 0.56105
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5601 asian low turns the reclaim into a failed retest
Break of the rising trendline near the 0.5597 minutes low ends the NY higher-low chain
Close above the 0.5606 minutes high exposes the 0.5610 london high
Loss of the 0.5585 day low resumes the London downleg
Ongoing FOMC minutes reaction and Fed's Waller (Thu 08:30 UTC) could materially shift this read via US yields
18:32 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since day low · RSI 58 · price 0.56026
HH/HL chain through NY hours off 0.5585, back above 0.5600.
US yields at 24-year highs drove NZD/USD through 0.5600 to a 0.5585 day low at the London-NY transition. Since then a rising trendline of higher lows has held through NY hours. The FOMC minutes bar whipsawed between 0.5597 and the 0.5606 minutes high before closing firm, and price now sits above the 61.8% fib of the london high to day low drop.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55935, 0.55854
Resistance: 0.56056, 0.56105, 0.56264
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5600 round number and the rising trendline breaks the NY higher-low chain
Loss of the 0.5594 swing low reopens the 0.5585 day low
Close above the 0.5606 minutes high exposes the 0.5610 london high, with the 0.5626 asian high beyond
Post-minutes yield follow-through, Breman at 08:00 UTC and Waller at 08:30 UTC Thu could materially shift this read
London sold NZDUSD from the 0.5610 London high to a session low at 0.5585 as US yields pushed to 24-year highs. NY has since built rising lows, and the FOMC minutes bar spiked to a 0.5606 minutes high before settling near 0.5603, above the 61.8% fib of the London drop.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55935, 0.55854
Resistance: 0.56056, 0.56105
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5606 minutes high opens the 0.5610 London high
Break of the rising lows line and the 0.5593 swing low returns focus to the 0.5585 session low
Loss of 0.5600 psych puts the price back below the 61.8% fib
Breman Thu 08:00 UTC and Waller 08:30 UTC could materially shift this read
18:04 UTC
Intraday recovery off day low, stalling at 0.5600 · RSI 58 · price 0.56005
NY higher-low sequence off 0.5585, capped at 0.5604.
London broke below the Asian low near 0.5601 as yields lifted the dollar, bottoming at the 0.5585 day low. NY built higher lows along a rising tl, retraced about 76% of the London drop fib and printed a rejection at the 0.5604 ny high. Price is now retesting 0.5600 as the FOMC minutes land, with RSI(14) at 58.
Support: 0.55965, 0.55935, 0.55854
Resistance: 0.56042, 0.56102, 0.56264
What it said to watch
FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.5604 ny high opens the 0.5610 london high, then the 0.5626 asian high
Close below the rising tl near 0.5596 and the 0.5594 swing low breaks the NY higher-low chain
Loss of the 0.5585 day low resumes the London downside leg
17:47 UTC
Intraday rebound within a 24h decline · RSI 58 · price 0.56012
Higher lows off session low, capped at NY high.
London sold off from the 0.5610 london high to a 0.5585 session low as US yields climbed. NY has since printed a chain of higher lows along a rising trendline and is now retesting the 0.5600 round number, near the 61.8% fib of the London leg. The 0.5604 ny high is capping, with RSI(14) near 58.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55935, 0.55854
Resistance: 0.56042, 0.56105
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5604 ny high opens the 0.5610 london high
Break of the rising trendline and the 0.5594 higher low ends the NY recovery structure
Loss of the 0.5600 round number puts the 0.5585 session low back in focus
FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
17:32 UTC
Recovering off day low, higher lows into late NY · RSI 60 · price 0.56001
HH/HL chain from 0.5585, capped under Asian low.
A yield-driven USD bid took NZDUSD from the 0.5610 London high to a 0.5585 day low early in NY. A chain of higher lows has since lifted price back to the 0.5600 area, near the 61.8% of the London drop. The late-NY spike to the 0.5604 session high was rejected back under the Asian low at 0.5601, with RSI(14) near 60 and price sitting just above EMA50.
Support: 0.55935, 0.55854
Resistance: 0.56012, 0.56042, 0.56105
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5604 session high opens the London high at 0.5610
Break of the 0.5594 swing low and the higher-low line ends the recovery structure, with the 0.5585 day low next
FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
RBNZ Governor Breman speaks Thu 08:00 UTC, a risk for the Asian range
17:17 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since London low · RSI 62 · price 0.56024
Asian low broken in London, reclaimed during NY hours.
London broke the 0.5601 Asian low and ran to a 0.5585 session low as US yields surged. NY has since built a higher-low chain and reclaimed 0.5600, retracing past the 61.8% of the London selloff with RSI(14) near 62. The 0.5604 swing high caps for now, with the 0.5610 London high above.
Support: 0.56012, 0.55935, 0.55854
Resistance: 0.56039, 0.56105, 0.56278
What it said to watch
FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC, about 45 minutes out, could materially shift this read
M15 close back below the 0.5601 Asian low negates the reclaim
Break of the 0.5594 higher low ends the NY higher-low chain and exposes the 0.5585 session low
Close above the 0.5610 London high opens the 0.5628 prior high
17:04 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in late NY · RSI 55 · price 0.55967
Lower highs from 0.5626 into a 0.5585 session low; NY building higher lows under 0.5601.
The Asia-to-London slide broke the 0.5600 handle at 10:45 UTC and set a session low at 0.5585 as US yields pushed to fresh highs. NY has printed higher lows along a rising trendline but stalled at the 0.5601 NY high, which sits on the 38.2% fib of the 0.5626–0.5585 leg. Price is coiling in a 0.5594–0.5601 band late in the NY session.
Support: 0.55935, 0.55854
Resistance: 0.56012, 0.56105
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5601 NY high and 38.2% fib opens the London top at 0.5610
Break of the 0.5594 higher low and the NY trendline ends the bounce structure
Loss of the 0.5585 session low resumes the downtrend
FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC (~1h) could materially shift this read
16:47 UTC
Downtrend, NY bounce stalling · RSI 52 · price 0.55948
Asian low broken in London, NY retest from below with higher lows.
Firm US yields carried London through the 0.5601 asian low, extending the drop from the 0.5626 asian high to a 0.5585 day low in the first hour of NY. The NY bounce has built higher lows but was rejected at 0.5601 on the retest, a level matching the 38.2% fib of the 0.5626–0.5585 drop. RSI(14) is neutral near 52 and ATR(14) is about 4.5 pips.
Support: 0.55935, 0.55899, 0.55854
Resistance: 0.56012, 0.56105, 0.56264
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5601 asian low and 38.2% fib reopens the 0.5610 london high
Loss of the 0.5594 higher low and the 0.5590 swing low breaks the higher-lows line and puts the 0.5585 day low back in play
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (~75 min) could materially shift this read
Lower highs through Asia/London; rising lows since 12:15 UTC session low.
NZD lost the 0.5601 Asia-London prior floor late in London as US yields climbed, printing a 0.5585 session low at 12:15 UTC. NY has rebuilt with rising lows and is now retesting 0.5600-0.5601 from below, where the 61.8% fib of the London-high drop and a flattening EMA50 converge.
Support: 0.5594, 0.55915, 0.55854
Resistance: 0.5601, 0.56102, 0.56264
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5601 prior floor and 61.8% fib opens the path to the 0.5610 London high; above that the 0.5626 Asia high is the next cap
Rejection at 0.5601 plus a break of the rising lows trendline and 0.5592 swing low re-exposes the 0.5585 session low
FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; Breman speaks Thu 08:00 UTC
15:47 UTC
Downtrend, NY bounce stalling · RSI 60 · price 0.55967
Asian range broken lower; NY higher lows capped below 0.5600.
London broke below the Asian range low at 0.5601 and extended to a 0.5585 session low, near the YTD low, as US yields rebounded. NY has since built a higher-low chain off that low, but the bounce met rejection at the 0.5600 psych level, which lines up with the 38.2% fib of the drop from 0.5626.
Support: 0.55915, 0.55854, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.56004, 0.56105
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5600 psych and the 38.2% fib opens the path to the 0.5610 london high
Break of the 0.55915 higher low breaks the NY trendline and puts the 0.5585 session low back in play
Loss of the session low exposes the 0.5580 nov-25 low
FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Late-London break below 0.5600 to the YTD low; NY higher lows capped at 0.5600.
A late-London break below 0.5600 ran to 0.5585, tagging the YTD low as rising US yields kept USD bid. NY recovered on a chain of higher lows, but the bounce was rejected at the 0.5600 round number, which also sits near the 61.8% of the London high–NY low fib. Price is pinned to EMA20 and RSI(14) is neutral near 52.
Support: 0.55915, 0.55854, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56105
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5600 round number reclaims the broken range and puts the 0.5610 London high in play
A break of the 0.5592 higher low unwinds the NY higher lows structure
Loss of the 0.5585 YTD low exposes the 0.5580 Nov-25 low
FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC, about 2.5h out, could materially shift this read
15:18 UTC
Downtrend, NY rebound in progress · RSI 52 · price 0.55973
Higher lows off 0.5585 into a retest of broken 0.5600 support.
London broke the 0.5601 Asian low and ran to a session low at 0.5585, near the YTD low, as US yields pressed higher. NY has since built a rising lows chain, but the bounce printed a rejection wick at the 0.5600 round number, close to the 61.8% level of the London leg fib, with RSI(14) neutral near 52.
Support: 0.55915, 0.55854
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56102
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5600 round number opens the path to the london high at 0.5610
Break below the 0.5592 higher low and the rising lows line puts the 0.5585 session low back in play
FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
15:04 UTC
Intraday downtrend, NY bounce off lows · RSI 51 · price 0.55957
Higher lows off 0.5585, capped below 0.5600.
NZD slid through Asia from 0.5626, then lost the 0.5600 round number late in London as US yields firmed. Price printed a swing low at 0.55854 on the YTD low. NY has since built higher lows along a short trendline, but the bounce stalled at the 0.55986 NY high, on the 50% fib of the London-NY drop, with price hugging EMA20.
Support: 0.55875, 0.55854, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.55986, 0.5600, 0.56102
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5600 round number reclaims the breakdown level and opens the 0.5610 london high
Loss of the 0.55875 higher low breaks the NY trendline; a break of the 0.5585 ytd low exposes the 0.5580 nov-25 low
FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read
London range break lower; higher lows since session low.
Asia pushed from 0.5625 to the 0.5601 Asian low. London held a 0.5601–0.5610 range before breaking lower to a 0.5585 session low as US yields rebounded. NY has printed a higher low near 0.5590 and is retesting the broken 0.5600 area from below, with the NY high at 0.5599 capping and price pinned at EMA20, RSI(14) neutral near 48.
Support: 0.5590, 0.55854, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.55986, 0.56012, 0.56102
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5601 Asian low negates the retest read and puts the 0.5610 London high in play
Loss of the 0.5590 higher low breaks the NY bounce structure; below the 0.5585 session low, the 0.5580 nov-25 low is next
NY high at 0.5599 sits between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the London drop; rejection there keeps the downtrend sequence intact
FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read
Downtrend, NY bounce off day low · RSI 44 · price 0.55943
Lower highs from London high, higher lows forming above 0.5585.
London broke the Asian range low near 0.5601 and the slide reached the 0.5585 day low, the YTD low area, before the NY open as US yields rebounded into the FOMC minutes. NY has since printed higher lows off that day low, with the bounce high at 0.5597 capped at the 50% fib of the London drop and the falling London trendline.
Support: 0.5590, 0.55854, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.55974, 0.5600, 0.56102
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5600 psych and the London trendline would put the 0.5610 London high in play
Loss of the 0.5590 higher low and a break of the 0.5585 day low exposes the 0.5580 nov-25 low
FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC (~3.5h) could materially shift this read
14:17 UTC
Downtrend, NY bounce stalling · RSI 41 · price 0.55925
Lower highs/lows through Asia and London; NY holding a tight 0.5585–0.5595 base.
Yield-led USD strength pushed NZD through the 0.5600 round number late in London, and the move extended to a session low at 0.5585, in line with the YTD low cited in the digest. The NY bounce stalled three times at the 0.5595 ny high, the fib 38.2 of the london high-to-low leg, and price is pinned below EMA20.
Support: 0.55854, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.55949, 0.5600, 0.56102
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5595 ny high / fib 38.2 opens the 0.5600 round number, then the 0.5610 london high
Close below the 0.5585 session low exposes the 0.5580 nov-2025 low
FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC (21:00 broker, ~4h) could materially shift this read
RBNZ Governor Breman Thu 08:00 UTC is the next NZD-specific risk
14:03 UTC
Downtrend, early NY bounce off lows · RSI 41 · price 0.5594
Lower highs from London high, higher low forming above 0.5585.
NZD broke below the Asian range and the 0.5600 round number late in London as US yields rebounded, printing a session low at 0.5585 on the YTD-low area. NY has carved a higher low at 0.5588, but the bounce is capped at 0.5595 twice (the double cap), right at the 38.2% retrace of the move from the 0.5610 London high.
Support: 0.55875, 0.55854, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.55945, 0.5600, 0.56102
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.5595 double cap and 0.5600 round number reclaims the 50–61.8% retrace zone of the London-high drop
Loss of the 0.5588 higher low and the 0.5585 session low exposes the 0.5580 nov-25 low
FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
0.5610 london high remains the intraday lower-high reference
13:47 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London and NY · RSI 33 · price 0.55902
London broke below the Asian range low and 0.5600. NY made a new session low, followed by a shallow bounce..
London capped below the 0.56105 london high, then lost the Asian range low and the 0.5600 round number. Firmer US yields into the FOMC minutes pushed NY down to a 0.55854 session low, at the YTD-low area. The rebound stalled at the 0.55945 bounce high, near the 38.2% fib, and RSI(14) is around 33 with no oversold extreme.
Support: 0.55854, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.55945, 0.5600, 0.56105
What it said to watch
Break of the 0.55854 session low exposes the 0.5580 nov-25 low
M15 close back above the 0.5600 round number (61.8% fib) undercuts the range-break read
Rejection again at the 0.55945 bounce high keeps the lower-high sequence intact
FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.5610, Asian range low broken in London.
London broke the 0.5601 Asian low and extended the lower-high chain to a 0.5585 session low, testing the YTD low as US yields firmed into the FOMC minutes. The early-NY bounce is stalling at 0.5595, near the fib 38.2 of the 0.5610–0.5585 drop.
Support: 0.55854, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.55945, 0.56012, 0.56102
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5601 asian low would mark the London break as a false break
Loss of the 0.5585 session low opens the 0.5580 nov-25 low
A recovery through the 0.5610 london high would end the lower-high sequence
FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
13:18 UTC
Downtrend, early NY bounce off lows · RSI 39 · price 0.55922
London range broken lower, lower highs intact, retesting breakdown from below.
A late-London break of the 0.5600 round number and the London range floor ran to a 0.5585 session low, at the YTD low flagged in the digest, as USD firmed on rebounding yields. The first-hour-of-NY bounce is now testing the 0.5593 prior shelf and the lower-high line from below, short of the 38.2% drop retrace near 0.5595.
Support: 0.55854, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5593, 0.5600, 0.56105
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5600 round number negates the range break and puts the 0.5610 london high back in play
Rejection at the prior shelf / lower-high line keeps the lower-high sequence intact; a break of the 0.5585 session low exposes the 0.5580 nov-25 low
FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
13:05 UTC
Downtrend, early NY bounce off lows · RSI 29 · price 0.55899
Lower highs since London; Asian low and 0.5600 broken.
London broke the 0.5602–0.5610 range and the Asian low near 0.5601. It extended a lower-high trendline down to a 0.5585 session low at the YTD low, as US yields rebounded into FOMC minutes. RSI(14) is near 29, and the first-hour-of-NY bounce is holding below the 0.5593 shelf.
Support: 0.55854, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.55926, 0.5600, 0.56105
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5600 round number negates the London range break
Failure to hold the 0.5585 session low exposes the 0.5580 nov-25 low
Close above the lower-high trendline and 0.5610 london high breaks the intraday downtrend structure
Reclaim of the 0.5593 shelf would mark the first higher low since London
FOMC minutes at 18:00 GMT and the 10y auction could materially shift this read
12:47 UTC
Downtrend, oversold at lows · RSI 28 · price 0.5587
Lower highs and lower lows; London range broken below 0.5600.
NZD/USD broke the 0.5600 round number and the London range floor late in London, then extended to a 0.5585 session low in the first hour of NY as US yields firmed into the FOMC minutes. That low sits at the YTD-low area. Lower highs have held since the 0.5610 London high, and RSI(14) near 28 is oversold.
Support: 0.55854, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.55925, 0.5600, 0.56102
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5593 breakdown shelf and the lower-highs line would signal the leg is stalling
Failure to hold the 0.5585 session low exposes the 0.5580 nov-25 low
Reclaim of the 0.5600 round number and the 0.5610 London high would invalidate the intraday downtrend read
FOMC minutes at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
12:17 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 33 · price 0.55916
Asian range low broken; LH/LL chain below 0.5600.
NZD/USD broke the 0.5601 asian low and the 0.5600 handle during London, carving lower highs off the 0.5610 london high as US yields firmed into FOMC minutes. Price is pressing the 0.5592 session low into the London-NY transition with RSI(14) near 33, not yet oversold, and the 0.5585 ytd low just below.
Support: 0.55916, 0.5585, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.55982, 0.56012, 0.56102
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5598 bounce high and 0.5601 asian low breaks the lower-highs trendline and neutralises the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 0.5592 session low exposes the 0.5585 ytd low and 0.5580 nov-25 low
A London high to session low fib pullback stalling at the 0.5603 61.8% level keeps the LH chain intact
FOMC minutes at 18:00 GMT and the US 10y auction could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the London high; Asian low and 0.5600 broken, early NY retest.
London extended the Asia slide through the 0.5601 Asian low and the 0.5600 psych handle to a 0.5593 session low as US yields firmed ahead of the FOMC minutes. The early NY bounce is retesting 0.5600 from below, near the 38.2% fib of the drop from the 0.5610 London high, with the lower-highs line still capping; RSI(14) is around 35.
Support: 0.55926, 0.5585
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56102
What it said to watch
Repeated rejection at the 0.5600 psych level keeps the lower-highs sequence intact
A break of the 0.5593 session low exposes the 0.5585 ytd low
An M15 close above the lower-highs line and the 0.5610 London high invalidates the intraday downtrend read
FOMC minutes at 18:00 GMT and today's 10-year auction could materially shift this read
11:47 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 27 · price 0.55934
Asian low broken, fresh session low at 0.5593.
Late London extended the Asia selloff, breaking the asian low and 0.5600 psych to a session low at 0.5593 as firmer US yields weighed into the FOMC minutes. Lower highs from the 0.5610 london high cap the move. RSI(14) near 27 is stretched but not extreme, and the 0.5585 ytd low is the next reference.
Support: 0.55926, 0.5585, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56102, 0.56245
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 0.5600 (asian low, ~50% of the London leg fib) would mark the break as a false break
Loss of the 0.5593 session low exposes the 0.5585 ytd low and 0.5580 nov-25 low
Close above the 0.5610 london high breaks the lower-highs sequence; 0.5625 asian high sits beyond
FOMC minutes at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read via US yields
Lower highs since Asia; London range broken to the downside.
The Asia session selloff from 0.5626 stalled at the 0.5601 asian low. London then held a 0.5602–0.5610 range, with the lower high capping twice, before late London broke the asian low and the 0.5600 round number to a 0.5598 session low. Firmer US yields into today's FOMC minutes are weighing; RSI(14) sits near 31, and the next cited floor is the 0.5585 ytd low.
Support: 0.55975, 0.5585
Resistance: 0.56012, 0.56105
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5601 asian low would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.5598 session low exposes the 0.5585 ytd low
Close above the 0.5610 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain
FOMC minutes at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
Lower highs through London, floor at 0.5601 giving way.
Asia session faded from 0.5626 after a small gap lower at the daily open. Mid-London, price is pressing the 0.5600 psych level after a run of lower highs below the 0.5610 London high, as US yields climb back above 5.30%. The 0.5601-0.5602 London floor has just given way. RSI(14) near 34 is not oversold, and ATR(14) is about 3.3 pips.
Support: 0.5600, 0.5585
Resistance: 0.5602, 0.5610, 0.5628
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5602 london floor turns the break into a false break
A close above the lower highs line and the 0.5610 london high breaks the intraday down sequence
Acceptance below 0.5600 psych exposes the 0.5585 ytd low
Prior high at 0.5626-0.5628 caps the wider intraday structure
FOMC minutes at 18:00 GMT, during NY hours, could materially shift this read
After the 0.5628 prior high capped yesterday's NY session, Asia ground lower to 0.5601 as US yields firmed into FOMC minutes. Mid-London, price is in a tight 0.5601–0.5610 band, with the 0.5610 session high and the 0.56075 lower high sloping down into a fourth test of the session low, just above the 0.5600 round number. RSI(14) is 38 and ATR(14) about 3.4 pips, so moves are compressed.
Support: 0.5601, 0.5600, 0.5585
Resistance: 0.56075, 0.5610, 0.5628
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5600 round number breaks the session low floor and opens the 0.5585 ytd low
Close above the 0.56075 lower high, then the 0.5610 session high, ends the lower-highs sequence
Intraday downtrend stays intact unless the 0.5628 prior high is reclaimed
FOMC minutes at 18:00 GMT and the 10y auction could materially shift this read
10:17 UTC
Downtrend from Asian high, stalling · RSI 42 · price 0.56046
Asia lower-high chain into a tight London range 0.5602–0.5610.
NZD bled from the 0.5626 Asian high to the 0.5601 asian low as US yields recovered into today's FOMC minutes. Mid-London, price is compressing in a 0.5602–0.5610 band, with bounces capped at the london high near the 38.2% asia decline fib.
Support: 0.56012, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56105, 0.5614, 0.56282
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5600 round number breaks the asian low and the London range floor
Acceptance above the 0.5610 london high and asia decline fib reopens the 0.5614 breakdown pt, then the 0.5628 prior high
FOMC minutes at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
10:04 UTC
Downtrend, stalling in a tight London range · RSI 46 · price 0.5606
Lower highs from 0.5628; London compressing 0.5602–0.5610 above the Asian low.
The Asia session extended the slide from the 0.5628 prior high to a 0.5601 low as US yields rebounded. Mid-London, price is compressed between the 0.5602 london low and the 0.5610 london high, below the fib 38.2% retracement at 0.5612. RSI(14) sits near 46 and ATR runs about 3.5 pips, with no directional setup in play.
Support: 0.5602, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5610, 0.5612, 0.5628
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.5602 london low and the 0.5600 round number confirms a fresh lower-low
An M15 close above the 0.5610 london high opens the fib 38.2% at 0.5612, then the 0.5628 prior high
FOMC minutes at 18:00 GMT and the US 10y auction could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.5628; tight London range 0.5602–0.5610 sitting on the Asian low.
NZD bled through the Asia session from the 0.5625 Asian high to a 0.5601 Asian low as US yields rebounded into FOMC minutes, extending the drop from the 0.5628 prior high. London has since compressed into a 0.5602–0.5610 range with RSI(14) flat near 48 and ATR(14) at ~3.6 pips, holding just above the 0.5600 psych level.
Support: 0.56012, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56105, 0.56245, 0.5628
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5601 asian low exposes 0.5600 psych and confirms a lower-low
M15 close above the 0.5610 london high breaks the range and brings the 0.5625 asian high back into view
0.5628 prior high remains the cap on the drop from 0.5628; the 50% retrace sits near 0.5615
FOMC minutes at 18:00 GMT and the US 10-year auction could materially shift this read
09:17 UTC
Downtrend from Asia, stalling in early London · RSI 51 · price 0.56065
Lower highs through Asia, now a tight 0.5602–0.5610 range above the Asian low.
Asia session extended the slide from 0.5626 to a 0.5601 asian low as US yields rebounded and USD firmed into the FOMC minutes. Early London is holding a tight range above that low and is capped at the 0.5610 london high, near the 38.2% of the Asia decline fib, with RSI(14) neutral near 51.
Support: 0.56012, 0.5585
Resistance: 0.56105, 0.56138
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5601 asian low breaks the London range and exposes the 0.5585 ytd low
M15 close above the 0.5610 london high opens the fib 50% at 0.5614
FOMC minutes and US 10y auction at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
09:05 UTC
Intraday downtrend stalling above the Asia low · RSI 50 · price 0.5607
London range 0.5602–0.5610 at the base of the Asia sell-off; twin lows, lower-high chain broken.
Asia session sold off from the 0.5625 Asia high to a 0.5601 Asia low as US yields rebounded. London printed a higher low at 0.5602 and is boxed below the 0.5610 neckline, which coincides with the 38.2% fib of the Asia drop. RSI(14) is neutral near 50 and price is pinned at a flat EMA20.
Support: 0.56012, 0.5585
Resistance: 0.56105, 0.56245, 0.56282
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5610 neckline confirms the double bottom and opens the 50% fib near 0.5613
Break below the 0.5601 Asia low resumes the downtrend and exposes the 0.5585 YTD low
Asia high 0.5625 and prior high 0.5628 cap any rebound
FOMC minutes at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.5628; twin lows 0.5601/0.5602 under a 0.5610 cap.
Asia sold off from the 0.5625 asian high to a 0.5601 asian low as US yields firmed into FOMC minutes, extending the slide from Monday's 0.5628 prior high. The first two hours of London have held a 0.5602 retest at 08:00 UTC, while the 0.5610 session high, near the 38.2% selloff retrace, has capped every bounce.
Support: 0.56012, 0.5585
Resistance: 0.56105, 0.56245, 0.56282
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5610 session high clears the 38.2% selloff retrace and opens the 0.5625 asian high and the 0.5628 prior high
Failure to hold the 0.5601 asian low exposes the 0.5585 ytd low
FOMC minutes at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows; early London capped at 0.5610, price resting on the Asian low.
NZD has printed lower highs since yesterday's 0.5628 double top, driven by a USD rebound on hawkish Fed remarks and firmer yields. The Asian slide stalled at the 0.5601 asia low, and early London was rejected at the 0.5610 london high under the falling lower-highs trendline. The prior low at 0.5600 sits just beneath, with RSI(14) near 36.
Support: 0.5601, 0.5600, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5610, 0.5618, 0.5628
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5600 prior low extends the lower-low chain, with the 0.5580 nov-25 low the next reference
M15 close above the 0.5610 london high and the lower-highs trendline neutralises the intraday downtrend; the 0.5618 breakdown shelf sits above
Recovery through the 0.5618 breakdown shelf brings the double top retrace and 0.5628 back into view
FOMC minutes at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
07:17 UTC
Downtrend, compressed near lows · RSI 40 · price 0.56044
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia, early-London bounce capped.
After a double top at the 0.5628 prior high, Asia stepped lower from the 0.5626 asian high to a 0.5601 asian low as the USD firmed into FOMC minutes. The early-London bounce stalled at the 0.5610 swing high, near the 38.2% of the Asia decline and the lower-highs trendline, and price is back at 0.5604 in the first half-hour of London with RSI(14) near 40 and ATR(14) under 3 pips.
Support: 0.56012, 0.55934
Resistance: 0.56105, 0.56264, 0.56282
What it said to watch
Break below the 0.5601 asian low extends the lower-low chain toward yesterday's 0.5593 london low
Close above the 0.5610 swing high and the lower-highs trendline neutralises the Asia sequence
0.5626 asian high to 0.5628 prior high is the double-top cap above
FOMC minutes at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
07:04 UTC
Downtrend, bounce stalling into London open · RSI 46 · price 0.56077
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia, 9-pip bounce off 0.5601 capped at 38.2%.
NZDUSD slid through the Asia session from 0.5624 to a 0.5601 Asian low as the USD reclaimed ground on firmer yields. This extended the fade from yesterday's 0.5628 prior high. Into London open, the rebound has met rejection at the 38.2% fib of the Asian decline near 0.5610, with RSI(14) neutral at 46 and price sitting just under EMA20.
Support: 0.56012, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56105, 0.56204, 0.56282
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 38.2% fib at 0.5610 opens a deeper retracement toward the 0.5620 swing high
Break of the 0.5601 Asian low and 0.5600 psych level resumes the Asia lower-low sequence
Recovery above the 0.5628 prior high invalidates the intraday downtrend read
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
Asia lower-high chain from 0.5625 into 0.5601 low; minor trendline poke.
After a second failure at the 0.5628 prior high yesterday, the Asia session ground lower in a lower-high chain to a 0.5601 Asian low as the USD firmed on yields, stalling just above 0.5600 psych. Ahead of London open, the bounce to a 0.5610 high poked through the Asia downtrend line. Price is back near EMA20, RSI(14) is around 46 and ATR is about 2.5 pips.
Support: 0.56012, 0.55906
Resistance: 0.56095, 0.56127, 0.56282
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.5613 lower high, near the 38.2% of the Asia decline fib, breaks the lower-high chain
Losing the 0.5601 Asian low exposes 0.5600 psych and the 0.5591 prior low
A slip back under the Asia downtrend line after the 0.5610 bounce high resumes the lower-low sequence
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
06:32 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 37 · price 0.56053
Asia lower-high/lower-low chain from 0.5626 into 0.5601.
Asia session sold off steadily from the 0.5626 session high in a clean lower-high/lower-low sequence, tagging a 0.5601 session low as USD firmed on hawkish Fed remarks. Price is now compressing just above the 0.5600 psych level into the London open, capped by the 0.5607 lower high, with RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 0.56012, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5607, 0.56108, 0.56264
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5607 lower high ends the Asia lower-high chain and opens the fib 38.2 retracement at 0.5611
Break below the 0.5601 session low and the 0.5600 psych level extends the downtrend
Recovery through 0.5611 brings the 0.5626 session high back into view
FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia lower-high/lower-low chain off 0.5626, pressing the 0.5600 handle.
Asia session unwound the overnight bounce in a steady lower-high sequence from 0.5626, as USD firmed on hawkish Fed remarks. Price printed a session low at 0.5601, just above the 0.5600 psych handle, with RSI(14) near 33. It sits capped under the 0.5607 swing high into London open, 27 pips beneath yesterday's failed high at 0.5628.
Support: 0.56012, 0.5600, 0.55897
Resistance: 0.5607, 0.56115, 0.56282
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5607 swing high and the Asia lower-highs trendline breaks the lower-high chain; fib 38.2 at 0.5612 is next
Acceptance below the 0.5600 psych handle exposes yesterday's prior low at 0.5590
0.5628 failed high remains the ceiling of the window; only a recovery there would negate the selloff structure
FOMC minutes at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
Lower highs through Asia, tight drift above 0.5603.
The Asia session extended the slide from yesterday's 0.5628 prior high as the USD rebounded on firmer yields. Each bounce has been capped by a descending trendline, and the 0.5612 lower high was the last test. Price is pinned just above the 0.5603 session low and below the ema20 near 0.5607 into London open, with RSI(14) near 31, soft but not oversold.
Support: 0.5603, 0.5600, 0.5589
Resistance: 0.5607, 0.5612, 0.5628
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5603 session low exposes the 0.5600 round number, then the 0.5589 swing low
M15 close above the 0.5612 lower high breaks the descending trendline read
Reclaim of the ema20 at 0.5607 would mark the first stall in the Asia slide
FOMC minutes at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read; RBNZ's Breman speaks Thu 08:00 UTC
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia off the 0.5628 failed high; compressing above the Asian low.
After rejection at the 0.5628 failed high in NY hours, Asia printed a lower-high sequence (0.5626, 0.5620, 0.5613) down to the 0.5603 Asian low as the USD rebounded on firmer yields. Late Asia is now coiling just above the Asian low with the 0.5600 round number beneath, and RSI(14) near 42 is not stretched.
Support: 0.56034, 0.5600, 0.5589
Resistance: 0.56127, 0.56282
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5613 lower high breaks the Asian lower-high chain and opens the 38.2–50% fib zone near 0.5613–0.5616
Failure to hold the 0.5603 Asian low exposes the 0.5600 round number, then the 0.5589 prior low from the start of the window
London open is the first test of the Asian range; the Asia downtrend line near 0.5612 caps the bounce while it holds
FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via USD and yields
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia, pressing session low.
The Asia session has ground about 21 pips lower from 0.5625 in a clean lower-high chain. Price is now sitting on the 0.5604 session low with London open about 90 minutes out, as the USD rebound unwinds the failed run to the 0.5628 bounce high. RSI(14) near 30 and ATR of only 2.4 pips point to compressed, orderly selling rather than a flush. Each bounce has been capped under the descending lower-highs line from the 0.5620 swing high.
Support: 0.56038, 0.5600, 0.5589
Resistance: 0.56115, 0.56204, 0.56282
What it said to watch
Break of the 0.5604 session low exposes the 0.5600 round number, then the 0.5589 prior low from Monday's London open
An M15 close above the lower-highs trendline and the 0.5611 shelf high breaks the Asia downtrend chain
Recovery through the 0.5620 swing high would put the 0.5628 bounce high back in focus
London open range expansion from a 2.4-pip ATR base could reset the session structure
FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC during NY hours could materially shift this read
05:17 UTC
Downtrend, oversold but no turn yet · RSI 27 · price 0.56039
Lower highs through Asia after double top at 0.5628.
Yesterday's London-NY rally stalled at a 0.5628 double top. Late Asia has unwound it on a USD rebound, with a descending chain of lower highs pressing price into a 0.5604 session low just above the 0.5600 round number. RSI(14) near 27 is stretched, but no reversal structure has formed ahead of London open.
Support: 0.5604, 0.5600, 0.5589
Resistance: 0.5607, 0.5613, 0.5628
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.5607 lower high and the descending trendline would break the Asia lower-high chain
0.5613 rollover low aligns with the 38.2% retrace of the drop from 0.5628, a test there is the first rejection-or-break area
Failure to hold the 0.5600 round number exposes yesterday's 0.5589 prior low
FOMC minutes (Wed 18:00 UTC) and Breman Thu 08:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower-high chain from 0.5620, price pinned at Asia session low.
Tuesday's 39-pip rally from 0.5589 met rejection twice at the 0.5628 prior high during NY hours. The Asia session has since printed a chain of lower highs down to the 0.5604 asia low as the USD firmed on hawkish Fed remarks. Price sits on the 61.8% fib of that rally with RSI(14) near 28, just above the 0.5600 round number.
Support: 0.5604, 0.5600, 0.5589
Resistance: 0.5613, 0.5628
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5604 asia low exposes the 0.5600 round number and the 0.5589 prior low
M15 close above the 0.5613 lower high breaks the Asia trendline and the lower-high sequence
London open in ~2h may extend or reject the Asian range low
FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
04:47 UTC
Downtrend through Asia, RSI near oversold · RSI 26 · price 0.56054
Lower highs and lower lows since 0.5626; Tuesday's rally mostly unwound.
Tuesday's London-NY rally from 0.5589 stalled in a double top at 0.5628. Late in the Asia session, the dollar's rebound on firmer yields has driven a steady chain of lower highs from 0.5626. Price now sits at the session low of 0.5605, on the 61.8% retracement of the rally, with RSI(14) near 26 and ATR around 3 pips.
Support: 0.56046, 0.5600, 0.55982
Resistance: 0.5611, 0.56135, 0.5628
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5600 round number extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5598 swing low
Recovery above the 0.5611 asia shelf and the 0.5614 gap low would break the Asian lower-high sequence
London open is the first test of whether the session low and 61.8% retracement hold
FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
04:33 UTC
Downtrend, extended into late Asia · RSI 24 · price 0.56046
Lower highs from 0.5626, fresh session low below the 0.5608 shelf.
Late in the Asia session, NZDUSD has given back most of Tuesday's London-NY rally. A chain of lower highs from 0.5626 has pressed price through the 0.5608 shelf and onto the 61.8% fib of the 0.5589–0.5628 move. A USD rebound on firmer yields and hawkish Fed remarks is driving the slide. RSI(14) near 24 marks the move as oversold, with the 0.5600 psych level just below.
Support: 0.56041, 0.5600, 0.55892
Resistance: 0.56084, 0.56204, 0.56282
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 0.5600 psych exposes Tuesday's 0.5589 swing low
M15 close back above the 0.5608 broken shelf would ease the downtrend read
Lower high at 0.5620 caps the structure; the 0.5628 bounce high marks full invalidation
FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
RBNZ Breman speech Thu 08:00 UTC is the next NZD-specific risk
04:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 29 · price 0.56078
Lower-high chain since rollover, pressing fresh Asia low.
After the rejection at the 0.5628 prior high, the Asia session has printed steady lower highs and sliced through the 0.5613 gap low to a fresh asia low near 0.5608 as the USD firmed on higher yields. RSI(14) near 29 is stretched, with the 0.5600 psych level and 0.5589 prior low the next reference points below.
Support: 0.56075, 0.5600, 0.55892
Resistance: 0.56135, 0.56204, 0.56282
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5613 gap low and the Asia lower highs trendline negates the lower-high sequence
Reclaim of the 0.5620 swing high reopens the 0.5628 prior high
Break of 0.5600 psych exposes the 0.5589 prior low
London open in ~3h may extend or reverse the Asia move
FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian lower highs and lower lows, now coiling above the Asia low.
Yesterday's London-NY rally topped at the 0.5628 ny high. Asia has since unwound most of it on a firmer USD, breaking the 0.5614 rollover low and carving a 0.5608 asia low. Price is compressing just above that low late in the Asia session, with RSI(14) near 32 and ATR(14) about 3 pips.
Support: 0.56079, 0.5600, 0.55892
Resistance: 0.56135, 0.56204, 0.56282
What it said to watch
A close below the 0.5608 asia low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5600 round number
Below 0.5600, the 0.5589 prior low from early London yesterday is the next swing reference
Recovery above the 0.5614 rollover low and the asia lower highs trendline neutralises the Asian sell-off; the 0.5620 lower high and the 50% of the ny high–asia low fib sit just above
London open in ~3h typically expands a 3-pip ATR Asian range; FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia lower highs and lower lows from 0.5626; tight base at 0.5608-0.5612.
Tuesday's London/NY advance from the 0.5589 prior-day low stalled twice at the 0.5628 prior high. Asia has since retraced most of it as DXY reclaimed 102.00, printing a chain of lower highs to a 0.5608 Asian low. Price has been basing there for seven bars in late Asia, RSI(14) near 31 and ATR around 3 pips.
Support: 0.56079, 0.5600, 0.55892
Resistance: 0.56135, 0.56204, 0.56282
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5608 Asian low exposes the 0.5600 round number and the 0.5589 prior-day low
A close back above the 0.5613 gap low and the 0.5620 swing high breaks the Asia lower-high sequence and the trendline
The 38.2-50% retrace of the Asia decline (0.5615-0.5617) is the first area to watch for rejection or break
London open could break the tight Asian range; FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia below the 0.5628 double top.
Late Asia session: Tuesday's double top at 0.5628 capped the NY rally, and Asia has printed a chain of lower highs from the 0.5626 asia high down to the 0.5608 asia low as USD dip-buying returned on firmer yields and Iran headlines. Price sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 27 and ATR around 3 pips, about 9 pips above the 0.5600 psych handle.
Support: 0.56079, 0.5600, 0.5589
Resistance: 0.56127, 0.56264, 0.56278
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5613 lower high and the Asia lower-highs trendline breaks the intraday downtrend read
Failure to hold the 0.5608 asia low exposes 0.5600 psych, then the 0.5589 prior low
A recovery through the 0.5626 asia high and 0.5628 double top would negate the Asia selloff
Retracement of the 0.5626–0.5608 Asia leg stalling below the 50% level keeps the lower-high sequence intact
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows from 0.5626, holding just above session low.
The Asia session has reversed the post-rollover bounce from 0.5626. It printed a lower high at 0.5620 and slipped through the 0.5614 gap low to a session low at 0.5608 as dollar dip-buying returned on firmer yields. RSI(14) sits near 31 with price below both EMAs, and the 0.5600 psych level lies about a pip-ATR cluster below.
Support: 0.56079, 0.5600, 0.55892
Resistance: 0.56135, 0.56204, 0.56282
What it said to watch
A break below the 0.5608 session low opens the 0.5600 psych level, then yesterday's prior low at 0.5589
A recovery above the 0.5614 gap low and the 0.5620 lower high would break the Asia lower-highs sequence
A move back to the 0.5628 prior high would mark a full retrace of the Asia leg (fib 100%)
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields
03:03 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 29 · price 0.56092
Lower-high chain from 0.5626, trading at session low.
Asia session has unwound the late-NY rebound. A chain of lower highs from 0.5626 cut through the 0.5614 gap low to a new session low at 0.5608, below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 29. The double top at the 0.5628 prior high capped the day, and NZD is soft into the FOMC Minutes and Breman. The 0.5600 psych level is the next floor.
Support: 0.56079, 0.5600, 0.55892
Resistance: 0.56137, 0.56204, 0.56278
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5614 gap low puts the 50% of the asia decline fib (0.5617) and the lower-highs trendline back in play
Failure to hold the 0.5608 session low exposes 0.5600 psych, then the 0.5589 swing low from the London open
A close above the 0.5620 lower high breaks the lower-high chain; the 0.5628 prior high sits above
FOMC Minutes (18:00 UTC) and RBNZ's Breman (Thu 08:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
02:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend through Asia · RSI 33 · price 0.56108
Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.5626 Asian high; trading below the rollover gap low.
Asia session has given back Tuesday's US-yield-driven gains, with a lower high at 0.5620 under the 0.5626 Asian high and a session low at 0.5608, below the rollover gap low at 0.5614. Price sits under both EMAs with RSI(14) near 33. The 0.5600 round number is the next reference below.
Support: 0.56084, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56135, 0.56204, 0.56264
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5614 gap low returns price to the overnight range
Break of the 0.5608 session low exposes the 0.5600 round number
Close above the lower-high line and 0.5620 breaks the Asia lower-high sequence; the 0.5626 Asian high sits above
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia lower highs and lower lows; range floor broken.
Asia session is giving back Tuesday's USD-softness rally, with a lower-highs chain from 0.5626 off the 0.56282 day high. Price slipped through the 0.5615 range floor to a 0.56084 session low, the 50% retrace of the 0.5589–0.5628 move. RSI(14) near 27 is oversold, and ATR is under 3 pips in thin Asian trade.
Support: 0.56084, 0.5604, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5615, 0.5626, 0.56282
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5615 range floor negates the Asia breakdown
Break below the 0.56084 session low exposes the 0.5604 fib 61.8, then the 0.5600 round number
Reclaim of the lower highs trendline near 0.5626 reopens the 0.56282 day high
London open liquidity could extend or reverse the thin Asian move
NY Fed inflation expectations and Fed Logan in the NY session, ahead of FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC
Lower highs and lower lows off 0.5625, testing 50% of the London-NY rally.
The Asia session has unwound much of Tuesday's USD-driven London-NY rally from 0.5589 to 0.5628. A lower-high chain off 0.5625 broke the 0.5614 gap low and printed a 0.5608 session low, right at the 50% rally fib, with RSI(14) at 25 and price below both EMAs. The fade fits the soft NZD backdrop as RBNZ hike odds bleed.
Support: 0.56084, 0.5600, 0.5589
Resistance: 0.56135, 0.56204, 0.56282
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5608 session low breaks the 50% rally fib and exposes the 0.5600 round number
Recovery through the 0.5614 gap low and the 0.5620 lower high would break the Asia lower-highs trendline and neutralise the Asia downtrend
0.5589 prior low and 0.5628 prior high bound the 24h range
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC today could reset the USD leg of this read
Asia session lower highs and lower lows, retesting the rollover gap low.
Tuesday's USD-led rally from 0.5589 topped at the 0.5628 day high as yields eased. The Asia session has since built lower highs off the 0.5626 rebound high, and price is now retesting the 0.5613 gap low, which sits on the 38.2% fib, with RSI(14) near 29.
Support: 0.56135, 0.56086, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56204, 0.56264, 0.56282
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5613 gap low exposes the 50% fib at 0.5609, then 0.5600 psych
Recovery above the 0.5620 lower high breaks the Asia lower-high trendline; the rebound high at 0.5626 sits above
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC and Breman Thu 08:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Double top at 0.5628, Asia lower highs below neckline.
The rally from the 0.5589 early-European low, helped by a softer USD, stalled in a double top at 0.5628 through NY. Asia has since printed lower highs, slipping through the 0.5620 neckline to an asia low at 0.56153, with RSI(14) near 37 and price below both EMAs. The rollover gap low at 0.56135 sits on the 38.2% fib of the rally, with ATR only 2.5 pips.
Support: 0.56153, 0.56135, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56205, 0.5628
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5620 neckline and the asia lower highs trendline negates the double top read
Break of the 0.56135 gap low and 38.2% fib exposes the 0.5600 round number
FOMC Minutes (Wed 18:00 UTC) and Breman (Thu 08:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia below 0.5626, holding above 0.5615.
The London-to-NY rally from 0.5589 topped at the 0.5628 session high as the USD slipped on softer yields. NY then consolidated below it. Asia was rejected at the 0.5626 asian high and has drifted to the 23.6% fib of the rally near 0.5619, with the 0.5615 asian low holding so far.
Support: 0.56153, 0.56135
Resistance: 0.56264, 0.56282
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5615 asian low exposes the 0.56135 rollover gap low, which sits at the 38.2% fib of the rally
Reclaim of the 0.5626 asian high puts the 0.5628 session high back in play
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC and RBNZ Governor Breman Thu 08:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs below 0.5628 NY high; Asia drifting toward rollover gap low.
The London-to-NY leg from 0.5589 to the 0.5628 NY high came as USD slipped on softer Treasury yields. Since then supply has capped each bounce with a lower high at 0.5626. Early Asia session is drifting from the 0.5621 asia high to a 0.5615 asia low, just above the rollover gap low that sits on the 38.2% fib at 0.5614. RSI(14) is near 42 and price is below both EMAs.
Support: 0.56153, 0.56135, 0.5610
Resistance: 0.56212, 0.56264, 0.56282
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.5614 38.2% fib / gap low exposes the 0.5610 prior high and 50% retracement
A recovery through the 0.5621 asia high and the 0.5626 lower high would reopen the 0.5628 ny high
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC and RBNZ Breman on Thu 08:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower high at 0.5626 under 0.5628 session high; Asia drifting toward gap low.
London and NY lifted the pair from 0.5589 to a 0.5628 session high as the USD slipped on easing yields. Price then ranged below that high, and the rebound after the daily-open gap stalled at a 0.5626 lower high. Early Asia is sliding back toward the 0.5614 gap low, which lines up with the 38.2% fib of the rally.
Support: 0.56135, 0.56086
Resistance: 0.56245, 0.56264, 0.56282
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5614 gap low / 38.2% fib exposes the 0.5609 fib 50% area
Reclaiming the 0.5625 asia high and the 0.5626 lower high reopens the 0.5628 session high
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields
Double top at 0.5628, neckline 0.5621 lost; testing gap low.
Twin highs at the 0.5628 double top capped the USD-softness rally off 0.5589. Asia set a lower high at 0.5626 and slipped back below the 0.5621 neckline, RSI(14) near 42. Price now sits just above the 0.5614 gap low from the rollover, which lines up with the 38.2% fib of the 0.5589–0.5628 leg.
Support: 0.56135, 0.56087, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56207, 0.56264, 0.56282
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5614 gap low exposes the fib 50% at 0.5609, then 0.5600 psych
Recovery above the 0.5621 neckline and the 0.5626 lower high voids the double top read
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could reset the USD leg that drove the London rally
Lower highs under 0.5628 after the 0.5589–0.5628 London-NY rally.
The London-NY rally from 0.5589 to the 0.5628 prior high on a softer USD has stalled, with the rollover dip to the 0.5613 gap low quickly filled. The Asia session was capped at the 0.5626 session high, and price is now pressing the asia low near 0.5619, which lines up with the 23.6% fib. Price is back under ema20 and flat on EMA50. RSI(14) is 42 and ATR is 2.4 pips, a quiet tape.
Support: 0.56185, 0.56135, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56222, 0.56264, 0.56282
What it said to watch
Break of the asia low at 0.5618 exposes the gap low and 38.2% fib confluence at 0.5613
Failure at 0.5613 puts the 0.5600 round number back in view
Recovery through ema20 at 0.5622 and a close above the 0.5626 session high and 0.5628 prior high would end the lower-high sequence
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC and the US yield direction could materially shift this read
Tight range 0.5620–0.5628 after London-NY breakout above the Asian range.
Yesterday's London-NY leg from the 0.5589 Asian low topped at the 0.5628 session high as the USD slipped with Treasury yields. Since then price has held a 0.5620–0.5628 band, with the rollover dip to the 0.5614 gap low (near the 38.2% fib) bought back to the 0.5626 post-gap high. Early Asia session is now pressing the band's lower edge at the 0.5620 swing low.
Support: 0.56199, 0.56135, 0.5610
Resistance: 0.56264, 0.56282
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5620 swing low opens the 0.5614 gap low / 38.2% fib, then the 0.5610 london high
Close above the 0.5626 post-gap high and the 0.5628 session high breaks the range to the upside
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields
0.5621–0.5628 range under day high; rollover gap filled.
The London-NY leg lifted NZDUSD from 0.5589 to a 0.5628 day high as the USD slipped on softer Treasury yields, and the 0.5626–0.5628 area has capped price four times since. The rollover gap to the 0.5614 gap low, also the 38.2% retracement, filled within the hour. Early Asia has topped at the 0.5626 asia high and is now drifting back onto the 0.5621 ny low, just under EMA20.
Support: 0.56207, 0.56135, 0.56087
Resistance: 0.56264, 0.56282
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5621 ny low reopens the 0.5614 gap low and 38.2% retracement
Loss of 0.5614 exposes the 50% fib near 0.5609 and turns the London-NY leg into a deeper retracement
Close above the 0.5628 day high breaks the range cap and the repeated rejection there
FOMC Minutes (Wed 18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read via US yields