Every read JAFX AI made on the NZD/USD daily chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
22:08 UTC
Downtrend, rebound capped below 0.5710 · RSI 40 · price 0.56269
Lower-high chain; 0.5565–0.5710 range since mid-Oct.
The pair has been in a quarter-long downtrend since the 0.5929 high in early September, printing lower highs and lower lows into the 0.5565 oct low on 14 October. The mid-October rebound stalled at the 0.5710 oct high, close to the 38.2% fib of the Sept–Oct decline and below the 0.5749 sept high, so the lower-high sequence is intact. The RBNZ's surprise hold on 28 October drove a 100-pip daily drop to the 0.5583 rbnz low, which still held above October's low. The last three sessions have compressed beneath the ema20 near 0.5654, and the EMA(50) is still falling overhead.
Support: 0.5583, 0.5565
Resistance: 0.5654, 0.5710, 0.5749
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 0.5565 oct low resumes the lower-low chain and breaks the multi-month floor
- Failure to hold the 0.5583 rbnz low exposes the 0.5565 oct low
- Daily close above the ema20 near 0.5654 and the 0.5710 oct high breaks the lower-highs sequence, with the 0.5749 sept high next
- NZ Q3 labour data (Tue 3 Nov 21:45 UTC) could reprice December RBNZ hike odds and shift this read
- US ISM Manufacturing (Mon) and the US mid-term elections add USD event risk to the range
21:07 UTC
Downtrend, basing above the 0.5565 oct low · RSI 40 · price 0.56311
Lower highs from the 0.5929 early-September peak; 0.5565–0.5583 base being tested, rebound capped at 0.5710.
NZDUSD has carried a lower-high, lower-low chain since the 0.5929 early-September peak. The October rebound from the 0.5565 oct low stalled under 0.5710, the oct high. The surprise RBNZ hold on Wednesday then produced a 100-pip daily range, the widest in the window, to the 0.5583 rbnz low. Price has spent the last two sessions near 0.5630, back below the ema20 near 0.5645 and well under a falling EMA(50), with RSI at 40 and the 0.5600 psych level directly underneath.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55827, 0.55652
Resistance: 0.5645, 0.57102, 0.5749
What it said to watch
- NZ Q3 jobs data Tue 21:45 UTC: a soft print vs 5.5% unemployment f/c could pressure the 0.5600 psych level and the rbnz low
- A daily close below the 0.5565 oct low would extend the lower-low sequence and break the multi-week base
- A daily close back above the ema20 near 0.5645 would put the 0.5710 oct high back in focus
- Only a close above the 0.5749 sep pivot breaks the lower-highs trendline from September
- US ISM Monday and the mid-term elections Tuesday add USD event risk to the read