The RBNZ's surprise hold on Wednesday drove a ~90-pip hourly drop to the rbnz low at 0.5583. Since then price has retraced in a rising, flag-like sequence of higher lows, helped by bank commentary framing the hold as a pause and a softer USD. Friday's London push stalled at 0.5652, between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of the RBNZ drop, and the NY-session rejection sent price back toward the higher-lows trendline; the week opened ~6 pips below Friday's close at 0.5627, just under the flattening EMA cluster near 0.5634 with RSI(14) near 46.
Support: 0.56189, 0.56067, 0.55827
Resistance: 0.5634, 0.56516, 0.57075
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the higher-lows trendline and Friday's low at 0.5619 breaks the recovery structure, putting Thursday's low at 0.5607 and the 0.5600 handle in focus
Reclaiming the EMA cluster at 0.5634 and closing above Friday's high at 0.5652 opens the path toward Tuesday's high at 0.5708 and the 0.5700/0.5710 cap
US ISM Manufacturing (Mon 15:00 UTC) and NZ Q3 jobs data (Tue 21:45 UTC) could materially shift this read
Higher lows since RBNZ low; capped below 61.8% fib.
Wednesday's surprise RBNZ hold drove a 93-pip Asia-session flush to 0.5583. Since then price has carved higher lows at 0.5595, the 0.5607 thu low and the 0.5619 fri low, as bank commentary recast the hold as a pause and the USD softened. Friday's London push stalled at the 0.5652 fri high, short of the 61.8% fib near 0.5660 on Tuesday's 0.5708-to-0.5583 drop, and the NY-session reversal left price at 0.5631, just under the ema20 and on the 38.2% retracement, with RSI(14) near 48.
Support: 0.5619, 0.5607, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5635, 0.5652, 0.5660
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5619 fri low breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 0.5607 thu low, then the 0.5600 round number
H1 close back above the ema20 and the 0.5652 fri high opens the 61.8% fib near 0.5660
US ISM Manufacturing Mon 15:00 UTC and NZ Q3 jobs Tue 21:45 UTC could materially shift this read