Every read JAFX AI made on the NZD/USD 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
21:45 UTC
Post-RBNZ recovery within a lower range, momentum fading · RSI 47 · price 0.56311
Higher lows off the RBNZ low, capped below the 50-61.8% retracement.
Wednesday's surprise RBNZ hold took the pair from 0.5675 to the 0.5583 rbnz low during the Asia session. The recovery since has formed a flag-like sequence of higher lows along a rising trendline, but stalled at the 0.5652 rebound high in Friday's London session, just above the 50% fib of the drop. That high faded into the NY session to a 0.5619 friday low on the US data before demand returned, and the week closes at 0.5631, just under a flattening ema20 near 0.5634, with RSI(14) near 47.
Support: 0.5619, 0.5600, 0.5583
Resistance: 0.5634, 0.5652, 0.5708
What it said to watch
- Hourly close below the rising trendline and the 0.5619 friday low would break the higher-low sequence from the RBNZ low
- Close above the ema20 and the 0.5652 rebound high reopens the fib 61.8 near 0.5660, then the 0.5708 week high
- Failure at the 0.5600 round number exposes the 0.5583 rbnz low
- US ISM Mon 15:00 UTC and NZ Q3 jobs data Tue 21:45 UTC could materially shift this read
17:40 UTC
Rebound off RBNZ low, stalling under EMAs · RSI 48 · price 0.56311
Higher lows since Wednesday's low; capped at 0.5652.
The RBNZ's surprise hold drove a 90-pip Asia-session drop to the 0.5583 RBNZ low on Wednesday. Since then the recovery has printed higher lows each day along a rising trendline, helped by a softer USD. Friday's London push met rejection at the 0.5652 Friday high, and the NY-session dip to the 0.5619 Friday low held near the 50% level of the rebound fib. The week closed at 0.5631, just under the EMA20/EMA50 cluster near 0.5634, with RSI(14) flat around 48.
Support: 0.5619, 0.5600, 0.5583
Resistance: 0.5634, 0.5652, 0.5708
What it said to watch
- H1 close back above the ema20 cluster and the 0.5652 Friday high opens the path toward the 0.5708 week high
- Break of the rising trendline and the 0.5619 Friday low ends the higher-low sequence and exposes the 0.5600 round number
- Failure to hold 0.5600 re-opens the 0.5583 RBNZ low
- US ISM Mon 2 Nov 15:00 UTC and NZ Q3 jobs Tue 3 Nov 21:45 UTC could materially shift this read