Lost 0.5670-0.5710 range; higher lows off 0.5583, capped at 0.5652.
NZDUSD spent most of the window in a 0.5670-0.5710 range before the RBNZ's surprise hold on Wednesday broke the range floor and drove a slide to the 0.5583 RBNZ low. The rebound has printed higher lows along a rising trendline but stalled at the 0.5652 rebound high, just above the 50% fib of the drop. Price is back below EMA20 and EMA50 following the bearish ema cross, and ATR(14) has compressed to about 18 pips as the recovery loses pace.
Support: 0.5607, 0.5600, 0.5583
Resistance: 0.5652, 0.5670, 0.5710
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.5652 rebound high and the 61.8% fib near 0.5660 reopens a test of the 0.5670 range floor
Failure to hold the 0.5607 higher low breaks the rising trendline and exposes 0.5600 psych, then the 0.5583 RBNZ low
The 0.5700/0.5710 range top remains the broader cap; it has been tested four times in the window
NZ Q3 jobs data (Tue 3 Nov 21:45 UTC), US ISM on Mon and the US mid-terms on Tue could materially shift this read
17:39 UTC
Corrective rebound after RBNZ-driven drop · RSI 48 · price 0.56311
Higher lows off 0.5583, rebound stalling below 61.8% fib.
The mid-month rally from 0.5565 stalled into a week-long range capped four times at the 0.5700/0.5710 range top. The RBNZ's surprise hold then broke the range lower to the 0.5583 rbnz low. The rebound since has printed higher lows along a recovery trendline but has stalled at the 0.5652 rebound high, between the 50% and 61.8% fib retracement of the drop. Price sits back at the 38.2% level near 0.5630, below EMA20, which has crossed under EMA50, while ATR(14) has eased back toward 19 pips from the RBNZ spike.
Support: 0.5619, 0.5600, 0.5583
Resistance: 0.5652, 0.5660, 0.5710
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 0.5619 higher low breaks the recovery trendline
Loss of the 0.5600 round number exposes the 0.5583 rbnz low and the 0.5560/0.5550 zone
Close above the 0.5652 rebound high and 61.8% fib at 0.5660 reopens the 0.5700/0.5710 range top
US ISM Manufacturing Mon 2 Nov 15:00 UTC and NZ Q3 jobs data Tue 3 Nov 21:45 UTC could materially shift this read