Range break lower on RBNZ, higher lows since 0.5583.
Three tests of the 0.5705-0.5710 range top failed. The surprise RBNZ hold then broke the 0.5670 range floor in a single 90-pip bar to the 0.5583 rbnz low, and EMA20 has crossed below EMA50. The rebound since, helped by a softer USD and hawkish hike pricing, has printed higher lows above the 0.5600 round number but stalled at the 0.5652 rebound high, between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of the rbnz drop fib. ATR(14) has settled back to about 19 pips from the decision spike, and price is compressing near the 38.2% level around 0.5630.
Support: 0.5600, 0.5583, 0.5565
Resistance: 0.5652, 0.5670, 0.5710
What it said to watch
NZ Q3 labour data Tue Nov 3 21:45 UTC is the key test for December hike pricing and could materially shift this read
An H4 close below the 0.5600 round number breaks the higher lows trendline and exposes the 0.5583 rbnz low, then the 0.5565 oct low
A close above the 0.5652 rebound high opens the path back to the 0.5670 range floor, with the 0.5710 range top above
US ISM Manufacturing on Mon Nov 2 and the midterms on Tue can drive USD-led swings through the 0.5600-0.5700 band
Triple cap at 0.5707-0.5710 broken; higher lows since the RBNZ low.
The mid-October rally from the 0.5565 oct low stalled three times at the 0.5707-0.5710 range top. Wednesday's surprise RBNZ hold then broke the range and printed the 0.5583 rbnz low, with EMA20 crossing below EMA50. Higher lows at 0.5595 and the 0.5607 higher low have lifted price back into the fib 38.2-50% band, but the rebound high at 0.5652 has so far capped it, and the digest attributes much of the bounce to a softer USD. ATR(14) near 21 pips has eased back from the RBNZ spike.
Support: 0.5607, 0.5583, 0.5565
Resistance: 0.5652, 0.5660, 0.5708
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.5652 rebound high and the fib 61.8 at 0.5660 reopens the 0.5707-0.5710 range top
A break of the rising trendline and the 0.5607 higher low puts the 0.5583 rbnz low back in play, with the 0.5565 oct low below
NZ Q3 labour data (Nov 3, 21:45 UTC) is the key test for December hike pricing and could materially shift this read
US ISM Manufacturing (Nov 2) and Tuesday's midterms could drive USD-led swings through the 0.5600-0.5700 band
Higher lows off the RBNZ low, still under the broken range floor.
The 0.5670-0.5710 range that held for over a week, with a triple top at 0.5710, broke lower on Wednesday's surprise RBNZ hold and fell to the rbnz low at 0.5583. Since then, higher lows at 0.5595 and 0.5607 have carried price back to the 50% retracement near 0.5645. Price is pressing the ema20 after it crossed below the ema50 overhead, a softer USD is helping the bounce, and ATR(14) has settled near 19 pips after the RBNZ spike. The fib 61.8 at 0.5660 and the prior floor at 0.5670 are the next areas to watch for rejection or break.
Support: 0.5630, 0.56067, 0.55827
Resistance: 0.5660, 0.5670, 0.5710
What it said to watch
H4 close back below the fib 38.2 at 0.5630, then the higher low at 0.5607, would break the rebound structure and put the rbnz low at 0.5583 back in focus
H4 close above the prior floor at 0.5670 would reclaim the old range and bring the triple top at 0.5710 back into play
US ECI today and NZ Q3 labour data on Tue Nov 3 (21:45 UTC) could materially shift this read
Triple top at 0.5710 broken; higher lows inside post-drop bounce.
Three tests of the 0.5710 triple top capped the mid-October advance, and the surprise RBNZ hold broke the 0.5670 neckline in a single 90-pip bar to the 0.5583 rbnz low. The bounce since then has built higher lows at 0.5595 and the 0.5607 higher low. It has retraced about 38-50% of the drop to the 0.5644 bounce high, where the flattening EMA20 near 0.5641 sits. EMA20 has crossed below EMA50, and ATR(14) has settled back to about 22 pips after the spike, so the bounce is compressing below resistance.
Support: 0.5607, 0.5583, 0.5565
Resistance: 0.5644, 0.5670, 0.5710
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.5644 bounce high and 50% fib opens a retest of the 0.5670 neckline
Failure to hold the 0.5607 higher low breaks the bounce structure and exposes the 0.5583 rbnz low, then the 0.5565 oct low
US ECI at 12:30 UTC today could shift USD tone against the current bounce
NZ Q3 jobs and Labour Cost Index on Nov 3, 21:45 UTC could materially reprice December RBNZ hike odds
Lower high at 0.5708 triple top; post-drop higher lows from 0.5583.
Three failures at the 0.5708 triple top preceded the surprise RBNZ hold. That decision broke the pair through the 0.5670 range floor to a 0.5583 rbnz low in a single bar, and EMA20 has since crossed below EMA50. The bounce since then has printed higher lows at 0.5595 and 0.5607 and is now pressing the 50% fib of the drop near 0.5645, where EMA20 also sits. A softer USD is the main cushion, and ATR(14) near 20 pips has eased back from the shock-bar expansion.
Support: 0.56067, 0.55827, 0.55652
Resistance: 0.56451, 0.56598, 0.57085
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 61.8% fib at 0.5660, with EMA50 nearby, would retrace most of the RBNZ drop and weaken the lower-high read
Failure to hold the 0.5607 higher low breaks the bounce structure and re-exposes the 0.5583 rbnz low, then the 0.5565 oct low
US Employment Cost Index today 12:30 UTC could shift the USD leg of this bounce
NZ Q3 employment and Labour Cost Index Tue Nov 3 21:45 UTC is the key test of December RBNZ hike pricing