22:48 UTC
Downtrend, basing near lows · RSI 47 · price 0.56309
Lower highs since Aug 21 peak; 0.5565–0.5710 range since early October.
NZDUSD has printed two months of lower highs since the Aug 21 peak at 0.5988, and price sits below a falling EMA(50). Since early October the pair has carved a 0.5565–0.5710 range. The mid-October bounce stalled at the 0.5710 swing high, short of the fib 38.2 at 0.5727. Wednesday's surprise RBNZ hold at 2.75% knocked price to the 0.5583 rbnz low. It has since steadied just above the 0.5600 psych level into Friday's close, helped by a softer USD.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55827, 0.55652
Resistance: 0.57102, 0.57267, 0.57766
What it said to watch
- NZ Q3 employment and labour cost data (Nov 3, 21:45 UTC) could materially shift this read via December hike pricing
- Daily close below the 0.5565 swing low extends the lower-low sequence out of the October range
- Failure to hold 0.5600 psych exposes the 0.5583 rbnz low
- Daily close above the 0.5710 swing high and the fib 38.2 at 0.5727 would break the descending trendline and challenge the downtrend read; fib 50 at 0.5777 sits beyond
- US ISM Manufacturing (Nov 2) and the midterms (Nov 3) may drive the pair through broad USD swings