Higher lows since Wednesday, capped near 50% retrace.
The RBNZ drop came in Wednesday's Asia session, after the surprise hold took the pair from 0.5675 to 0.5583. Since then a flag-like recovery has printed higher lows at 0.5595, the 0.5607 thursday low and the 0.5619 friday low, helped by a softer USD. The rally hit a rejection at the 0.5652 friday high in London, near the 50% retracement, and the week closes at 0.5631, on the 38.2% level and just under ema20, with RSI(14) near 47.
Support: 0.5619, 0.5607, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5634, 0.5652, 0.5660
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5619 friday low breaks the higher lows line and exposes the 0.5607 thursday low and the 0.5600 round number
Reclaiming ema20 at 0.5634 and clearing the 0.5652 friday high opens the 61.8% fib at 0.5660
ISM Manufacturing Mon 15:00 UTC and NZ Q3 labour data Tue 21:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 0.5583, capped below 0.5652 friday high.
Wednesday's surprise RBNZ hold knocked NZDUSD from the 0.5700 pre-RBNZ cap to the 0.5583 rbnz low in a single Asia-session bar. Since then the pair has printed higher lows at 0.5595, the 0.5607 thursday low and the 0.5619 friday low along a rising higher-low trendline, helped by a softer USD as yields fell. Friday's London push stalled at the 0.5652 friday high, short of the 61.8% fib of the RBNZ drop. Price recovered from the NY dip after the Chicago PMI miss and now sits near the 38.2% level, just under EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) neutral near 48.
Support: 0.5619, 0.5607, 0.5583
Resistance: 0.5652, 0.5660, 0.5700
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 0.5619 friday low breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 0.5607 thursday low, then the 0.5583 rbnz low.
Acceptance above the 0.5652 friday high and the 0.5660 61.8% fib opens the path toward the 0.5700 pre-rbnz cap.
US ISM Manufacturing (Mon 15:00 UTC) and NZ Q3 labour data (Tue 21:45 UTC) could materially shift this read, given the ~90% December hike pricing.
Higher lows since Wednesday, capped below 0.5652 friday high.
Wednesday's surprise RBNZ hold drove a 92-pip Asia-session flush to 0.5583. Since then, price has carved higher lows at 0.5595, 0.5607 and 0.5619 as a softer USD lifted the pair. Friday's London push stalled at 0.5652, between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the week's drop, and the rejection into early NY hours has left price just under EMA(20) near 0.5635. Price now sits on the 38.2% fib at 0.5630, with RSI(14) slipping back below 50 and the EMAs flattening together.
Support: 0.56304, 0.56189, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5635, 0.56516, 0.56598
What it said to watch
H1 close back above ema20 at 0.5635 reopens the friday high at 0.5652, with the 61.8% fib at 0.5660 beyond
H1 close below the friday low at 0.5619 breaks the higher lows trendline and ends the recovery structure
Failure at 0.5600 psych exposes the 0.5583 post-RBNZ low
US ISM Mon 15:00 UTC and NZ Q3 labour data Tue 21:45 UTC could materially shift this read
18:04 UTC
Corrective recovery after the RBNZ drop, stalling under resistance · RSI 46 · price 0.56322
Higher lows since the 0.5583 rbnz low; price pinned just under the EMA20/EMA50 cluster.
Wednesday's surprise RBNZ hold knocked NZDUSD from 0.5675 to the 0.5583 rbnz low during the Asia session. Since then the pair has built higher lows at 0.5595, the 0.5607 higher low and the 0.5619 friday low, helped by a softer USD. Friday's London push stalled at the 0.5652 rebound high, between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the drop, and the NY pullback has left price just under the 0.5636 ema cluster with RSI(14) back below 50.
Support: 0.56189, 0.56067, 0.55827
Resistance: 0.5636, 0.56516, 0.56598
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.5636 ema cluster and the 0.5652 rebound high opens the 61.8% fib at 0.5660, then the 0.5675 breakdown level
Failure to hold the 0.5619 friday low, then the 0.5607 higher low, breaks the post-RBNZ higher-low sequence and puts 0.5600 and the 0.5583 rbnz low back in focus
US ISM Manufacturing Mon 15:00 UTC and NZ Q3 labour data Tue Nov 3 21:45 UTC could materially shift this read; the weekend gap risk applies at the open
Higher highs and higher lows since Wednesday's 0.5583 low, capped between the 50% and 61.8% fib.
The week's dominant move came in Wednesday's Asia session, when the surprise RBNZ hold took NZDUSD from the 0.5675 pre-rbnz low area down to 0.5583. Since then a softer USD has helped H1 print higher lows at 0.5595, the 0.5607 thursday low and the 0.5619 friday low, though Friday's London push to the 0.5652 friday high stalled short of the 61.8% fib of the drop. The first hour of NY unwound that leg, leaving price pinned to converging EMA(20) and EMA(50) near 0.5635, with RSI(14) back at 51 from 67.
Support: 0.56189, 0.56067, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56516, 0.56598, 0.56745
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5619 friday low breaks the rising lows trendline and exposes the 0.5607 thursday low, then the 0.5600 round number
A close above the 0.5652 friday high opens the 61.8% fib at 0.5660, with the 0.5675 pre-rbnz low as the next cap
US ISM Manufacturing (Mon 15:00 UTC) and NZ Q3 labour data (Tue 21:45 UTC) could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Wednesday along a rising trendline, capped in the 50–61.8% fib zone of the week's drop.
The recovery from Wednesday's post-RBNZ hold low at 0.5583 has built a series of higher lows along a rising trendline. Friday's London session rebound high at 0.5652 stalled between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the week's drop from 0.5708. A reversal in the first hour of NY found today's low at 0.5619 above the trendline, and price has since settled back on the 38.2% fib near 0.5630. That leaves it just under a flattening EMA(20), with RSI(14) near 49. A USD softened by falling yields has carried much of the bounce, and the digest notes little fresh Kiwi-specific demand.
Support: 0.56304, 0.56189, 0.56067
Resistance: 0.56451, 0.56516, 0.56598
What it said to watch
Hourly close below today's low at 0.5619 breaks the rising trendline from the RBNZ low and exposes the thursday low at 0.5607
A further rejection at the 50% fib near 0.5645 would confirm a lower-high under the rebound high
Close above the rebound high at 0.5652 opens the path to the 61.8% fib at 0.5660
Fed's Daly and Musalem today could shift the USD tone into the weekly close
NZ Q3 labour data on Tue Nov 3 could materially reprice December RBNZ hike odds
Higher lows since Wednesday's RBNZ low; capped at 0.5652 Friday high.
NZDUSD is retracing Wednesday's slide on the surprise RBNZ hold, which ran from Tuesday's 0.5708 high to the 0.5583 rbnz low. Since then it has printed higher lows at 0.5595, the 0.5607 thursday low and the 0.5619 friday low, helped by a softer USD. Friday's London push stalled at the 0.5652 friday high, between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the drop, and the NY-open dip recovered after the Chicago PMI miss, leaving price on the converged EMA20/EMA50 near 0.5635 with RSI(14) mid-range at 54.
Support: 0.56189, 0.56067, 0.55827
Resistance: 0.56516, 0.56598, 0.5675
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 0.5619 friday low breaks the higher-lows trendline and puts the 0.5607 thursday low back in play
Loss of 0.5607 leaves the 0.5583 rbnz low as the next structural reference
Close above the 0.5652 friday high exposes the 61.8% fib near 0.5660, then the 0.5675 pre-rbnz breakdown area
Fed's Daly (16:00 UTC) and Musalem (16:30 UTC) could shift USD tone into the weekly close
NZ Q3 labour data Tue Nov 3 21:45 UTC is the next major test of December RBNZ hike pricing
14:03 UTC
Post-RBNZ recovery, stalling below the Friday high · RSI 45 · price 0.56225
Higher lows since Wednesday's RBNZ low; Friday high rejected, testing the trendline.
Wednesday's surprise RBNZ hold knocked NZDUSD about 90 pips off the pre-rbnz 0.5675 base, down to the 0.5583 rbnz low. Price has since printed higher lows, including Thursday's US-data dip to 0.5607, and a softer USD helped it extend to a 0.5652 Friday high in London. That high met rejection, and the drop around the US ECI release took price back below EMA(20) near 0.5634. It is now testing the 50% fib of the recovery at 0.5617, where the higher-lows trendline also sits, with RSI(14) down to about 45 from the low 60s.
Support: 0.5617, 0.5607, 0.5583
Resistance: 0.5634, 0.5652, 0.5675
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 0.5607 Thursday low breaks the higher-lows sequence and exposes the 0.5600 psych level and the 0.5583 rbnz low
Holding the 50% fib and higher-lows trendline near 0.5617, then reclaiming EMA(20) at 0.5634, keeps the recovery structure intact
A close above the 0.5652 Friday high reopens the pre-rbnz 0.5675 area
Chicago PMI, followed by Fed's Daly (16:00 UTC) and Musalem (16:30 UTC), could swing USD and shift this read
13:05 UTC
Recovery from RBNZ low, below week high · RSI 54 · price 0.56366
Higher lows since Wednesday; 50% retrace reclaimed, capped below 61.8%.
Wednesday's surprise RBNZ hold knocked the pair from the 0.5708 week high to the 0.5583 RBNZ low during the Asia session. The recovery since has printed higher lows off the 0.5607 Thursday low, helped by a USD softening after the FOMC. London lifted price through the 50% retracement to a Friday high at 0.5652, short of the 61.8% fib at 0.5660, before a pullback into the US data window left price sitting on EMA(20) and rising support near 0.5637, with RSI(14) back in the mid-50s.
Support: 0.56304, 0.56067, 0.55827
Resistance: 0.56516, 0.56598, 0.57075
What it said to watch
H1 close below rising support and the 38.2% fib at 0.5630 would break the higher-low sequence and expose the Thursday low at 0.5607
H1 close above the Friday high at 0.5652 brings the 61.8% fib at 0.5660 back into view; the week high at 0.5708 sits inside the 0.5700-0.5710 cap
Failure to hold 0.5600 reopens the RBNZ low at 0.5583
Chicago PMI (13:45 UTC) and Fed's Daly and Musalem (16:00/16:30 UTC) could shift USD tone into the weekly close
Higher lows since Wednesday's 0.5583 RBNZ low, stalling at 50% of the week's drop.
Wednesday's surprise RBNZ hold took the pair from the 0.5675 pre-RBNZ range to a 0.5583 RBNZ low. Since then it has printed higher lows, from 0.5607 on Thursday's NY session as USD softened, to the 0.5629 Friday low. London cleared the 0.5640 cap Friday and set a 0.5652 Friday high near the 50% retracement of the week's 0.5708–0.5583 drop, with price holding above EMA(20) and RSI(14) near 58.
Support: 0.5629, 0.5607, 0.5583
Resistance: 0.5652, 0.5675, 0.5708
What it said to watch
US ECI at 12:30 UTC today could materially shift this read; a hot print tests the higher-low trendline
Rejection at the 0.5652 Friday high and the 50% fib keeps the recovery read as a retracement; an H1 close above it exposes the 0.5675 pre-RBNZ level
Failure to hold the 0.5629 Friday low breaks the higher-low sequence and opens the 0.5607 Thu low
A break back below the 0.5583 RBNZ low would resume the week's downtrend toward the 0.5564 area
Reclaiming the 0.5708 week high would negate the post-RBNZ downtrend structure
Higher-low sequence since Wednesday's low, now testing the 50–61.8% retracement.
Wednesday's surprise RBNZ hold knocked NZDUSD from the 0.5675 pre-RBNZ low area to 0.5583 in the Asia session. Since then the pair has built higher lows at the 0.5607 Thursday low and the 0.5629 Friday swing low as the USD softened after the FOMC. The London open pushed price through the 0.5644 Asian high to 0.5650, back above the 50% retracement of the week's drop, with a rising EMA(20) near 0.5637 underneath and RSI(14) near 70 stretched but not diverging.
Support: 0.5644, 0.5629, 0.5607
Resistance: 0.5660, 0.5675, 0.5708
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 61.8% fib at 0.5660 opens the pre-RBNZ low area near 0.5675
Slip back below the 0.5644 Asian high would turn the London breakout into a false break
Break of the 0.5629 swing low snaps the higher-lows trendline
US ECI at 12:30 UTC, then Daly and Musalem: a hot wage print reviving the USD could stall the rebound below 0.5660
Week high at 0.5708 marks the top of this week's range and the broader rebound cap
10:03 UTC
Corrective recovery after sharp RBNZ-led drop · RSI 61 · price 0.56435
Higher lows since Wednesday's low, rising flag testing the 50% retracement.
The surprise RBNZ hold in Wednesday's Asia session drove a 90-pip hourly drop to 0.5583. Since then price has printed higher lows into each session, helped by the softer post-FOMC USD, and now sits above EMA(20) and EMA(50). The London open push to the 0.5649 Friday high tagged the 50% retracement of the 0.5708–0.5583 RBNZ drop and stalled there. RSI(14) near 61 is mid-range, consistent with a corrective flag rather than a fresh impulse.
Support: 0.5636, 0.5629, 0.5607
Resistance: 0.5649, 0.5660, 0.5675
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the rising trendline and the 0.5629 higher low breaks the flag structure, putting the 0.5607 Thursday low back in focus
A close above the 0.5649 Friday high and the 61.8% fib at 0.5660 opens the 0.5675 pre-RBNZ breakdown area
Repeated failure at the 50% level with price slipping under ema20 at 0.5636 would mark the bounce as exhausted
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC, then Daly and Musalem, could materially shift this read
Wednesday's surprise RBNZ hold knocked NZDUSD from the 0.5675 breakdown area to a 0.5583 RBNZ low in a single Asia-session bar. Price has since printed a run of higher lows. Thursday's NY session, after the soft US price deflators, and today's London open drove most of the recovery, lifting price to a 0.5649 session high. That puts price at the 50% retracement of the week's 0.5708–0.5583 drop, with price above EMA(20) near 0.5634 (EMA(20) and EMA(50) now converging there) and RSI(14) near 64.
Support: 0.5634, 0.56291, 0.55827
Resistance: 0.56488, 0.56598, 0.56754
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 61.8% fib at 0.5660 extends the retracement toward the 0.5675 breakdown level
Rejection at the 0.5649 session high, near the 50% retracement, would leave the bounce capped
Loss of EMA(20) at 0.5634 and then the 0.5629 higher low breaks the rising higher-lows trendline
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC today could materially shift this read
Post-RBNZ higher lows beneath the 50% retrace of the drop.
Wednesday's surprise RBNZ hold broke the 0.5670–0.5708 range in a single bar to the 0.5583 rbnz low. Since then the pair has climbed in a shallow flag of higher lows (0.5595, then 0.5607 into Thursday's NY session), helped by softer USD. Today's Asia high at 0.5644 stalled just shy of the 50% retrace, and price has eased in early London trade but still holds above EMA(20) near 0.5633.
Support: 0.5633, 0.5607, 0.5583
Resistance: 0.5644, 0.5660, 0.5675
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5644 asia high and the 50% retrace opens the 61.8% fib near 0.5660, then the pre-rbnz breakdown area at 0.5675
Loss of EMA(20) and a break of the higher-lows trendline toward the 0.5607 higher low would end the flag read
Failure to hold the 0.5583 rbnz low confirms a lower-low on this window
US ECI at 12:30 UTC, then Daly and Musalem later, could materially shift USD tone in NY hours
NZ Q3 jobs data on Tue Nov 3 is the next major NZD risk
NZD/USD has been in a downtrend since Tuesday's 0.5708 week high. The RBNZ's surprise 4-3 hold in Wednesday's Asia session drove a ~90-pip flush to the 0.5583 RBNZ low, and the pair has since printed higher lows at 0.5595 and 0.5607, with the rebound off Thursday's NY session low helped by a softer USD on US-Iran de-escalation hopes. Friday's Asia session stalled at 0.5644, close to the 50% fib of the week's drop, and price has slipped back onto EMA(20) at 0.5631 with RSI(14) flat near 52.
Support: 0.5631, 0.5607, 0.5583
Resistance: 0.5644, 0.5685, 0.5708
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5644 session high and 50% fib of the week's drop opens the 0.5685 pre-RBNZ area
Failure to hold 0.5607 higher low and the rising trendline exposes the 0.5583 RBNZ low
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC today could materially shift this read
06:04 UTC
Corrective recovery after RBNZ-driven drop · RSI 57 · price 0.56355
Higher lows since Wednesday's low, flag-like rise below fib 50%.
Wednesday's surprise RBNZ hold knocked the pair out of the Monday–Tuesday 0.5670–0.5708 range to a 0.5583 low in a single Asia-session hour, and the H1 has since carved higher lows along a rising trendline from 0.5595. Softer USD through Thursday's NY session and Friday's Asia extended the bounce to 0.5644, just shy of the fib 50% of the week's drop, with Friday's Asia low at 0.5624 marking the latest higher low. Price is now retesting the 0.5638 post-RBNZ cap at 0.5636, holding above EMA(20) near 0.5631 and sitting on EMA(50), with RSI(14) in the mid-50s.
Support: 0.56236, 0.56067, 0.55827
Resistance: 0.56451, 0.56696, 0.57075
What it said to watch
H1 close below the higher-low line and Friday's Asia low at 0.5624 breaks the recovery sequence; Thursday's low at 0.5607 then exposes the 0.5583 RBNZ low
Acceptance above the 0.5645 fib 50% opens the path to the 0.5670 range floor from Monday–Tuesday, with the 0.5708 week high above
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Fed's Daly/Musalem later today could materially shift this read via the USD leg
NZ Q3 employment and Labour Cost Index on Tue Nov 3 21:45 UTC is the next major test for the post-RBNZ structure
05:04 UTC
Downtrend from the RBNZ gap, corrective recovery underway · RSI 61 · price 0.5641
Post-RBNZ higher lows; testing the 50% retracement of the week's drop.
Wednesday's surprise RBNZ hold took the pair from near the 0.5700 week open to a 0.5583 RBNZ low in a single hour, and price has since printed higher lows at 0.5595 and the 0.5607 swing low from Thursday's NY session. A softer USD has carried the bounce through the 0.5637 prior high in Asia today, with price above both EMAs and RSI(14) near 61. The move now sits against the fib 50% of the week's drop at 0.5645, with the 0.5675 breakdown level overhead.
Support: 0.5637, 0.5607, 0.5583
Resistance: 0.5645, 0.5675, 0.5700
What it said to watch
H1 close above the fib 50% at 0.5645 opens the 0.5675 breakdown level
Slip back below the 0.5637 prior high and the higher-lows trendline puts the 0.5607 swing low back in focus
Loss of 0.5607 exposes the 0.5583 RBNZ low
US ECI at 12:30 UTC today could materially shift this read via the USD
NZ Q3 jobs data on Tue Nov 3 is the next domestic test of RBNZ hike pricing
Higher lows since Wednesday's low, testing the 50% retracement of the RBNZ drop.
The week opened near 0.5700 and held a 0.5670–0.5707 range through Tuesday. Wednesday's surprise RBNZ hold then knocked the pair to the rbnz low at 0.5583 in a single Asia-session bar. Since then the H1 has carved higher lows at 0.5595, the 0.5607 thu low on the NY-open dip around US GDP/PCE, and 0.5624 today, with a softer USD lifting today's Asia session to 0.5643. That Asia high sits just under the 50% retracement of the RBNZ drop (0.5645), with price holding above ema20 (~0.5630) and RSI(14) near 66, not yet overbought.
Support: 0.5630, 0.5607, 0.5583
Resistance: 0.5643, 0.5660, 0.5670
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5643 asia high / 50% fib opens the 61.8% fib at 0.5660 and the 0.5670 monday low, where Monday's selling was based
Failure to hold ema20 at 0.5630 (also the 38.2% fib) puts the higher-lows trendline near 0.5615 under test
Break below the 0.5607 thu low ends the higher-low sequence and reopens the 0.5583 rbnz low
US Employment Cost Index at 12:30 UTC today (f/c 0.8%) could materially shift this read; a hot print removes the soft-USD prop
NZ Q3 jobs data on Nov 3 at 21:45 UTC is the next NZD-specific risk
Higher lows off 0.5583, pressing the 0.5638 base top.
Wednesday's surprise RBNZ hold knocked the pair roughly 90 pips lower in Asia, from 0.5675 to a 0.5583 week low, after Monday and Tuesday had chopped below the 0.5701 week open. Since then, a softer USD has helped price carve higher lows at 0.5595 and the 0.5607 thu low within a 0.5595–0.5638 base. Friday's Asian session pushed to a 0.5643 fri high, close to the 50% retrace of the week's drop. Price now holds above EMA(20) near 0.5628 and above EMA(50), with RSI(14) around 63 but not stretched.
Support: 0.5628, 0.5607, 0.5583
Resistance: 0.5643, 0.5675, 0.5701
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5643 fri high / 50% retrace opens the path to 0.5675 pre-RBNZ level
Slip back below ema20 at 0.5628 returns price to the 0.5595–0.5638 base
Break of the 0.5607 thu low breaks the higher-lows trendline and puts the 0.5583 week low back in focus
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Daly/Musalem later today could materially shift this read via the USD
NZ Q3 jobs and labour costs on Nov 3 at 21:45 UTC are the next NZD-specific risk
Base above 0.5583 RBNZ low, pressing post-RBNZ high.
Wednesday's surprise RBNZ hold hit during the Asia session and knocked the pair from 0.5675 to a 0.5583 RBNZ low. A higher-low sequence followed at 0.5595 and at 0.5607, the Thu low set during NY hours around the US data dump. A softer USD has carried price back above EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 67, and Friday's Asia session is now pressing the 0.5640 post-RBNZ high, just under the 50% fib of the RBNZ drop at 0.5645.
Support: 0.5628, 0.5607, 0.5583
Resistance: 0.5640, 0.5645, 0.5675
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5640 post-RBNZ high and the 0.5645 50% fib opens the 0.5675 pre-RBNZ low congestion
Rejection at 0.5640 and a loss of the 0.5628 ema20 keeps price inside the post-RBNZ range
Break of the higher-low trendline and the 0.5607 Thu low puts the 0.5600 psych level and the 0.5583 RBNZ low back in focus
US ECI at 12:30 UTC today, plus Daly and Musalem from 16:00 UTC, could shift this read via the USD leg
NZ Q3 jobs and Labour Cost Index on Nov 3 at 21:45 UTC is the next NZD-specific risk
01:04 UTC
Downtrend after RBNZ gap-down, recovering in a tight base · RSI 57 · price 0.56297
Higher lows since Wednesday's low under a flat 0.5635-0.5638 cap.
Wednesday's surprise RBNZ hold at 2.75% produced a 90-pip collapse in a single Asia-session bar, from the 0.5675 breakdown area to a 0.5583 rbnz low, flipping the week's 0.5700 opening structure. Since then, H1 has built higher lows at 0.5595 and the 0.5607 thursday low, the latter marking the dip after the US GDP beat in NY, while the 0.5638 range cap has rejected three tests across Wednesday NY, Thursday London and today's Asia session. Price sits just above ema20 near 0.5626, with RSI(14) in the mid-50s, and is pinned against the 38.2% retracement and EMA(50) around 0.5630-0.5632, below the 50% fib at 0.5645.
Support: 0.5626, 0.5607, 0.5583
Resistance: 0.5638, 0.5645, 0.5675
What it said to watch
US ECI at 12:30 UTC, followed by Fed's Daly and Musalem, could materially shift this read via the USD leg
H1 close above the 0.5638 range cap breaks the flag top and opens the 50% fib at 0.5645, then the 0.5675 breakdown
Failure to hold the 0.5607 thursday low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 0.5583 rbnz low
Sustained trade back under ema20 at 0.5626 keeps price inside the flag's lower half
NZ Q3 labour data on Tue Nov 3 is the next domestic catalyst for this structure
00:04 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating after RBNZ drop · RSI 58 · price 0.56323
Post-RBNZ range 0.5607–0.5638 with higher lows, below broken 0.5670–0.5708 weekly range.
Wednesday's surprise RBNZ hold knocked NZDUSD about 92 pips lower in the Asia session to the 0.5583 week low. That move broke the Monday–Tuesday 0.5670–0.5708 range, leaving price well below the 0.5702 weekly open. Since then the pair has built a tight band between the 0.5607 range low and the 0.5638 range top on higher lows, recovering in Thursday's NY session after a dip around the US GDP/PCE data. It now sits above the ema20 near 0.5626 and only marginally above EMA(50), right at the 38.2% retrace of the week's drop with RSI(14) near 58.
Support: 0.5626, 0.5607, 0.5583
Resistance: 0.5638, 0.5645, 0.5702
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5638 range top opens the 50% fib at 0.5645, then the 0.5670–0.5675 pre-RBNZ breakdown area
Break of the 0.5607 range low and the higher-lows line exposes 0.5600 psych and the 0.5583 week low
Losing the ema20 at 0.5626 would put price back into the lower half of the post-RBNZ range
US ECI Q3 at 12:30 UTC Friday (f/c 0.8%) could materially shift this read via the USD leg
0.5702 weekly open aligns with the 0.5700/0.5710 rebound cap flagged in the macro digest