London push to 0.5946 was faded through the afternoon, with NY hours grinding back down to retest the 0.5925 session low. RSI(14) at 36 reflects the slide but isn't oversold; price is pinned just above support with no decisive break yet.
Support: 0.59245, 0.5918, 0.59108
Resistance: 0.59345, 0.59457
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.59245 session low opens 0.59180 swing low
Reclaim of 0.59345 intraday LH would neutralise the lower-high sequence
Asia-session liquidity could thin moves around 0.5925
09:15 UTC
Downtrend, attempting base · RSI 41 · price 0.59284
Range after impulsive drop.
NZDUSD took an impulsive 45-pip leg lower during the London session yesterday from 0.5955, basing around 0.5915 before a corrective bounce stalled at 0.59457 during NY hours. Asia session has drifted lower again, pressing back toward 0.5928 with RSI(14) at 41 and price capped under both EMAs.
Support: 0.5918, 0.59108
Resistance: 0.59457
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.59457 NY high invalidates the lower-high read
Loss of 0.59180 session low opens a retest of 0.59108 swing low
ATR compressed to 4 pips — break of either side likely expands range
09:01 UTC
Downtrend, attempting base · RSI 41 · price 0.59284
Lower highs since early drop, basing around 0.5930.
Sharp drop during the Asia session took price from 0.5955 to a swing low at 0.59108, since recovered into a 0.5918–0.5945 consolidation. London session pushed up to 0.59457 and rejected, with price now drifting back toward the session low.
Support: 0.5918, 0.59108
Resistance: 0.59446
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.5918 reopens the swing low at 0.59108
Reclaim of 0.59446 swing high needed to break the lower-high sequence
RSI near 41 — neither extreme, momentum neutral on this TF
08:45 UTC
Downtrend, base building · RSI 43 · price 0.59334
Post-drop range 0.5918–0.5945.
Sharp Asia-session drop from 0.5955 to 0.5911 broke structure, with price now consolidating between 0.5933 and 0.5945 as London develops. Buyers defended 0.59328 on the latest pullback but momentum stays capped under the 0.59457 range high.
Support: 0.59328, 0.59245, 0.59108
Resistance: 0.59396, 0.59457
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.59457 invalidates the post-drop range
Loss of 0.59328 session low reopens 0.59245 swing low
RSI(14) near 43 leaves room either way before extremes
08:30 UTC
Downtrend, attempting to base · RSI 47 · price 0.5935
Lower high at 0.5946, holding above 0.5918 swing low.
Sharp London-session sell-off from 0.5955 down to 0.5910 set the day's tone, with price now coiling between 0.5934 and 0.5946 into NY hours. A lower high printed at 0.5946 and the bounce is stalling, RSI(14) flat around 47.
Support: 0.5934, 0.5918, 0.5910
Resistance: 0.5946
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5946 lower high invalidates the corrective read
Break of 0.5918 swing low resumes the leg lower toward 0.5910 session low
08:15 UTC
Downtrend stabilising, corrective bounce in play · RSI 48 · price 0.59359
Lower high at 0.5945, holding above 0.5918 swing low.
Sharp NY-session leg lower yesterday from 0.5955 down to 0.5918 set the tone, with a corrective bounce capping at the 0.59457 session high before fading back to 0.5936. Price now coiling in a tight 20-pip range with RSI(14) neutral near 48; bounce momentum is stalling under the session high.
Support: 0.59344, 0.59245, 0.5918
Resistance: 0.59457, 0.5956
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.59457 session high reopens the path to 0.5956
Break of 0.59344 session low brings 0.59245 intraday low back in focus
Loss of 0.59180 swing low confirms downtrend continuation
Sharp London-session sell-off dropped price from 0.5955 to 0.5910, followed by base-building between 0.5920 and 0.5945. NY session pushed a recovery to the prior high at 0.59446 before rejection back into the range, RSI(14) neutral near 47.
Support: 0.5932, 0.5918, 0.59108
Resistance: 0.59446, 0.5956
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.59446 prior high opens room toward 0.5956 pre-drop base
Loss of 0.59320 session low reopens 0.5918 swing low
Failure at 0.5918 confirms continuation toward 0.59108 range low
Sharp drop from 0.5955 to 0.5911 during the London session left price grinding sideways with a series of higher lows into the NY session. Latest push tagged 0.59457 then rejected back to 0.5937; range between 0.5924 session low and 0.5946 session high still defines the picture.
Support: 0.59245, 0.5918, 0.59108
Resistance: 0.59457, 0.5955
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.59457 opens path back toward 0.5955
Loss of 0.59245 reopens the 0.5918 swing low and 0.5911 Asia low
RSI flat near 50 — no momentum signal until range breaks
07:30 UTC
Downtrend, base building · RSI 55 · price 0.59393
Lower high carved at 0.5945, holding above session low 0.5908.
Sharp NY-session sell-off into 0.59108 swing low yesterday, followed by a slow grind back up through London with a fresh session high at 0.59457. Price now consolidating around 0.5939 after rejection of that high; RSI cooled from the push, structure holds above the 0.59320 micro pivot.
Support: 0.5932, 0.5918, 0.59108
Resistance: 0.59457, 0.5955
What it said to watch
Reclaim and M15 close above 0.59457 session high opens path back toward 0.59550 prior shelf
Loss of 0.59320 micro pivot exposes 0.59180 session low
Iran deal headlines remain a live tape risk for USD legs
M15 dropped sharply into London with a flush from 0.5955 down to 0.59108, then carved a base and is grinding back into a lower-high recovery, now testing the recent high at 0.59457. Price holds above EMA20/50 with RSI at 60 — momentum constructive but capped by the prior shelf at 0.59550.
Support: 0.5932, 0.5918, 0.59108
Resistance: 0.59457, 0.5955
What it said to watch
Sustained acceptance above 0.59457 opens the path back to the prior shelf at 0.59550
Rejection here and a close back below the intraday pivot at 0.59320 reopens 0.59180 session low
Loss of 0.59108 swing low confirms continuation of the downtrend
Asia session sold off sharply from 0.5955 to a session low at 0.59108 during the London-NY handover yesterday, then base-built through NY and overnight. Early London today is grinding back toward the 0.59446 prior swing high with RSI(14) at 63, price now above EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 0.5918, 0.59245
Resistance: 0.59446, 0.59457, 0.5955
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.59457 NY high opens path back to 0.59550 pre-drop shelf
Loss of 0.59245 swing low re-exposes the 0.59180 session low
London session still early — range may yet extend either direction
06:45 UTC
Downtrend, base building · RSI 56 · price 0.59399
Sharp London drop, sideways recovery into NY close.
Sharp London-session drop from 0.5955 to 0.5911 set the day's tone, with price since grinding sideways in a 0.5918–0.5944 range through NY hours. Current bar at 0.59399 is mid-range, RSI recovered to neutral, ATR has compressed to 4 pips signalling exhaustion of the impulse.
Support: 0.5918, 0.59108
Resistance: 0.59446, 0.5955
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.59446 post-drop high opens room back to 0.5955 pre-drop base
Loss of 0.59180 session low reopens the 0.59108 spike low
Iran-US deal headlines remain a binary risk that could override structure
06:30 UTC
Downtrend from London, basing · RSI 51 · price 0.59381
Range after London drop, lower-high intact.
Sharp London-session break from 0.5955 down to 0.5910 wiped out the Asian range, with the bounce stalling at 0.5944 then drifting. Price has spent the NY-into-Asia handover chopping between 0.5918 and 0.5938, RSI(14) flat near 51 with no momentum either way.
Support: 0.5918, 0.59108
Resistance: 0.59446, 0.5955
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.59446 post-drop hi would invalidate the lower-high read
Break of 0.59180 session low reopens 0.59108 London low
ATR compressed to 4 pips — expansion likely on London open
06:15 UTC
Downtrend, basing · RSI 47 · price 0.59345
Post-drop range 0.5918-0.5944.
NZDUSD sold off sharply through London hours from 0.5955 down to a swing low at 0.5910, then rebounded to 0.5944 before settling in a 0.5918-0.5944 range. Price is hovering mid-range at 0.5934 with RSI(14) flat near 47 — directionless after the impulse.
Support: 0.59245, 0.5918, 0.59108
Resistance: 0.59396, 0.59446
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.5918 confirms continuation of the downtrend
Reclaim of 0.5944 with follow-through opens the path back to 0.5955 pre-drop
06:01 UTC
Downtrend, basing · RSI 48 · price 0.59345
Post-drop consolidation above 0.5915.
Sharp London-session leg down from 0.5955 to 0.5911 was followed by a corrective bounce to 0.5944 then a fade back into a tight 0.5918–0.5937 range through NY and Asia. Price is coiling mid-range with RSI near neutral; no fresh direction in the last 8 hours.
Support: 0.5918, 0.59108
Resistance: 0.59446, 0.5955
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.59180 reopens the swing low at 0.59108
M15 close above 0.59446 challenges the pre-drop base at 0.59550
Range stays intact between 0.5918 and 0.5937, no setup in play
Sharp London-session drop from 0.5955 to 0.5911 set the day's tone; price has since carved a base and ground back toward 0.5937 into Asia. M15 now consolidating in a tight 0.5920–0.5937 band with higher lows, RSI(14) near 58 after recovering from oversold.
Support: 0.59245, 0.59108, 0.5918
Resistance: 0.59446, 0.5937
What it said to watch
Close above 0.5937 near-term opens a retest of London high at 0.59446
Loss of 0.59245 session low reopens the 0.59108 swing low
ATR has compressed — break of the 0.5920–0.5937 range likely sets next leg
05:30 UTC
Downtrend, stabilising near lows · RSI 47 · price 0.59338
Broke down from 0.5970 range, basing near 0.5920-0.5935.
NZDUSD broke sharply lower during the London session, dropping from 0.5955 to 0.5910 in a single impulse before basing. Price has since coiled in a tight 0.5920-0.5935 range through the Asia session, with RSI(14) recovering to neutral and ATR cooling — consolidation rather than continuation, no setup in play.
Support: 0.5918, 0.59108, 0.59245
Resistance: 0.59446, 0.59551, 0.5937
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.5918 session low reopens the leg lower toward 0.5910
Reclaim of 0.5946 post-drop high would invalidate the bearish structural read
Asia liquidity thin — London open could re-expand the range
05:15 UTC
Downtrend, stabilising · RSI 47 · price 0.59339
Post-drop consolidation above 0.5915.
London session delivered a sharp impulsive drop from 0.5955 to 0.5911 on heavy volume, with price stabilising in a 0.5918-0.5934 range through the NY-Asia handover. RSI has reverted to neutral near 47 and the bounce high at 0.59446 capped the recovery; current price coiling at the upper end of the consolidation.
Support: 0.5918, 0.59108
Resistance: 0.59446, 0.5934, 0.5955
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.5918 swing low reopens 0.5911 session low
Reclaim of 0.59446 bounce high would invalidate the lower-high structure
Thin Asia-session liquidity may exaggerate moves
05:01 UTC
Downtrend, basing · RSI 46 · price 0.59339
Lower-low printed, sideways recovery.
Sharp London-session breakdown from the 0.5955 shelf dragged price to a 0.59108 swing low before a corrective bounce stalled at 0.59446. NY-into-Asia has settled into a tight 0.5918–0.5935 consolidation with RSI(14) flat near 46, no momentum either way.
Support: 0.5918, 0.59108
Resistance: 0.59446
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.59180 session low reopens 0.59108 swing low
Reclaim of 0.59446 bounce high would neutralise the downtrend read
ATR has compressed to 26 pips — expect expansion on London open
04:46 UTC
Downtrend, basing after flush · RSI 45 · price 0.59327
Lower low at 0.5910, consolidating below 0.5935.
Sharp drop during the London session sliced from 0.5955 to 0.5910 in four bars, establishing a fresh lower low. Price has since consolidated in a tight 0.5918–0.5935 range through the Asia hours, RSI(14) recovering to mid-40s but capped under the micro high at 0.5935.
Support: 0.5918, 0.59108
Resistance: 0.59347, 0.59446, 0.5955
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5935 micro high opens room back to 0.5945
Loss of 0.5918 session low exposes the 0.5910 swing low
Range remains intact between session low and micro high — no setup in play
04:30 UTC
Downtrend, stabilising near lows · RSI 45 · price 0.59332
Post-drop consolidation above 0.5918 swing low.
Sharp Asian-session drop from 0.5955 to 0.5910 cleared the prior London-NY range, then buyers stepped in twice around 0.5918 to build a base. Price has since coiled in a tight 0.5928–0.5935 band with RSI mid-range, no clean direction post-flush.
Support: 0.5918, 0.59108
Resistance: 0.59396, 0.59446, 0.5955
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.5918 swing low reopens 0.5910 session low
Reclaim of 0.5940 recent high would neutralise the downtrend read
Liquidity thin in late Asia, NY hours session may bring expansion
04:15 UTC
Downtrend, base building · RSI 49 · price 0.59333
Lower-high then sideways consolidation above 0.5918.
Sharp downside break mid-window dragged price from 0.5955 to 0.5910 in under two hours, after which buyers stepped in around the 0.5918 swing low and price has consolidated in a tight 0.5918–0.5934 band. RSI(14) has recovered to mid-range with a mild bullish divergence on the retest of the session low; intraday pivot at 0.59333 currently capping.
Support: 0.5918, 0.59108
Resistance: 0.59446, 0.59333, 0.59568
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.59446 post-drop high opens path back toward 0.5957 pre-drop base
Loss of 0.59180 session low confirms a lower-low and reopens 0.59108 swing low
Sustained rejection at 0.59333 intraday pivot keeps the consolidation intact
04:01 UTC
Downtrend, stabilising · RSI 45 · price 0.59333
Post-drop consolidation above 0.5918 low.
Sharp London-session drop from 0.5955 sliced through to a 0.5910 spike low, with the bounce capping at 0.5944 before fading back to mid-range. Asia is grinding sideways around 0.5930, holding above the session low but unable to reclaim the 0.5946 bounce high.
Support: 0.5918, 0.59108
Resistance: 0.59446, 0.59568
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5946 bounce high opens path back to the 0.5957 pre-drop base
Break of 0.5918 session low confirms continuation toward the 0.5911 spike low
Range-bound between 0.5918–0.5946, no structural shift while contained
03:46 UTC
Downtrend, basing near lows · RSI 42 · price 0.5929
Lower high then drift, range forming above 0.5918.
Sharp London-session breakdown from 0.5955 swept ~50 pips into 0.5910 before buyers stepped in, with NZDUSD now drifting sideways around 0.5929 in early Asia. RSI(14) recovered from oversold to mid-40s; price capped at the 0.5934 micro pivot with the 0.5944 lower high still intact.
Support: 0.5918, 0.5910
Resistance: 0.5934, 0.5944, 0.5955
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5944 invalidates the lower-high sequence
loss of 0.5918 reopens the 0.5910 psych level
thin Asia liquidity can produce false breaks either side of the range
Sharp London-session leg lower from 0.5955 down to the 0.59108 swing low, followed by a corrective bounce to 0.59446 that has since faded. NY hours have ranged 0.5918–0.5934 with price now mid-range at 0.59303, RSI(14) neutral near 45 and ATR around 5 pips reflecting cooling volatility.
Support: 0.5918, 0.59108
Resistance: 0.59446
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.59180 session low reopens 0.59108 swing low
Reclaim of 0.59446 bounce high invalidates the lower-high read
Asia liquidity thin — moves into the session can be exaggerated
Lower high at 0.5944, holding above 0.5918 swing low.
Sharp Asia-session sell-off drove price from 0.5955 to 0.5910 in a single impulsive leg, with a corrective bounce capped at the 0.5944 lower high before fading back. Currently grinding sideways around 0.5929 between the session low at 0.5918 and the intra swing at 0.5934, RSI(14) neutral near 44.
Support: 0.59245, 0.5918, 0.59108
Resistance: 0.59345, 0.59446
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.5918 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5910 spike low
Reclaim of 0.5944 lower high would invalidate the downtrend continuation read
Thin pre-Tokyo liquidity — moves on low volume bars unreliable
03:01 UTC
Downtrend, bouncing · RSI 45 · price 0.59294
Lower highs after impulsive drop, basing.
Kiwi took a sharp leg down during London hours from 0.5955 to 0.5910, then carved out a corrective bounce to 0.5946 before fading back into the 0.5920s as Asia opened. Price is now consolidating just above the session low at 0.5918, with RSI(14) showing mild bullish divergence against the lower price.
Support: 0.5918, 0.59108
Resistance: 0.59345, 0.59446, 0.5955
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.59180 session low reopens the 0.59108 swing low
Reclaim of 0.59345 recent high would neutralise the lower-high sequence
Asia session liquidity thin — moves into the London handover may extend
Lower high posted at 0.5944, holding above 0.5918 swing low.
Sharp Asia-session leg lower from 0.5955 to 0.5910 set the tone, with a corrective bounce capped at 0.5944 forming a lower high. Price is now grinding sideways around 0.5925-0.5930 after a second test of the 0.5918 swing low held, RSI(14) recovering off the mid-30s.
Support: 0.5918, 0.59108
Resistance: 0.5936, 0.59446, 0.5955
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.5918 confirms continuation toward 0.5910 session low
Reclaim of 0.5944 lower high would neutralise the intraday downtrend
Lower highs after impulsive drop, bouncing then fading.
Sharp London-session breakdown from 0.5955 took price to 0.5910 swing low, followed by a corrective bounce to 0.5944 that has since faded back toward the session low. NY hours are now retesting 0.5918 with RSI(14) at 38, no clear reversal signal yet — sellers reasserting after the bounce stalled at the rejection high near 0.5934.
Support: 0.5918, 0.59108
Resistance: 0.59345, 0.59446
What it said to watch
Loss of 0.59108 swing low confirms continuation of the downtrend
M15 close back above 0.59345 rejection high would neutralise the lower-high sequence
Lower highs after impulsive drop, basing near range low.
Sharp impulsive drop during London hours took NZDUSD from 0.5955 down to 0.5910, followed by a corrective bounce to 0.5944 that stalled and rolled over. Price is now retesting the session low at 0.5918 with RSI near 38; consolidation between 0.5918 and 0.5934 in the last hours.
Support: 0.5918, 0.59108
Resistance: 0.59345, 0.59446
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.59180 opens path to the 0.59108 swing low
Reclaim of 0.59345 rejection would neutralise the intraday downtrend
ATR ~32 pips — sizing context for the current range
02:01 UTC
Downtrend, attempting base · RSI 39 · price 0.59247
Lower highs after sharp NY-session drop, basing near session low.
NZDUSD broke down sharply from 0.5955 during London hours, losing ~45 pips in three bars before basing at 0.59108 swing low. NY session retraced to 0.59446 bounce high then rolled over again, with the latest leg printing a fresh lower high at 0.59345 and pressing back into the session low near 0.59180.
Support: 0.5918, 0.59108
Resistance: 0.59345, 0.59446
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.59180 session low opens path to 0.59108 swing low retest
Reclaim of 0.59345 intraday LH would neutralise the bearish micro-structure
Downtrend, attempting base · RSI 38 · price 0.5923
Lower highs after sharp drop, basing near session low.
Sharp impulsive sell-off mid-window drove price from 0.5955 to 0.5910, with the rebound stalling at 0.5946 before lower highs resumed into the Asia session. Current bars are basing near the session low at 0.5918, RSI(14) at 38 with no divergence yet.
Support: 0.5918, 0.59108
Resistance: 0.5934, 0.59446
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5934 micro pivot would break the lower-high chain
Loss of 0.5918 session low exposes the 0.5910 prior low
RBA hawkish commentary spillover could keep antipodean tone heavy
Lower high formed after relief bounce, fresh lower low printed.
Sharp NY-session sell-off broke the 0.5955 base and printed a swing low at 0.59108, followed by a corrective bounce that capped at 0.59446 and rolled over into a fresh lower low at 0.59180. Price now sits just above session low with RSI(14) at 38 and both EMAs overhead — sellers still in control on the M15.
Support: 0.5918, 0.59108
Resistance: 0.59345, 0.59446, 0.5955
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.59345 lower high would neutralise the downtrend read
Break and hold below 0.59108 swing low extends the leg
Asia session thin liquidity may exaggerate moves on PBOC fix follow-through
Lower highs after impulsive London-NY drop, holding above 0.5918.
NZDUSD broke down sharply during NY hours, slicing through 0.5955 in a single 15m candle and extending to 0.5910 swing low before a corrective bounce stalled at the 0.59446 post-drop high. Price has since drifted back lower into a fresh session low at 0.5918, RSI(14) at 38 with no divergence yet.
Support: 0.5918, 0.59108
Resistance: 0.5935, 0.59446
What it said to watch
Loss of 0.5918 session low opens path to the 0.59108 swing low
Reclaim of 0.59350 micro pivot would relieve immediate downside pressure
Asia session is thin, lower-tier data only — limited catalyst risk near term
01:01 UTC
Downtrend, attempting base · RSI 38 · price 0.59198
Lower high at 0.5944, retest of 0.5918 lows.
Asia session leg lower retesting the 0.5918 swing area after a clean break of the 0.5955 base earlier in NY. Price reclaimed 0.5944 as a lower high then rolled over; momentum stays heavy with RSI at 38 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 0.5918, 0.59108
Resistance: 0.59446
What it said to watch
Loss of 0.5918 session low opens path back to the 0.5910 swing low
M15 close back above 0.5944 lower high invalidates the continuation read
00:45 UTC
Downtrend, stabilising near lows · RSI 38 · price 0.59296
Lower high at 0.5944, base around 0.5930.
NZDUSD sold off sharply during the London session from 0.5955 down to 0.5910, then chopped sideways into NY before a fresh leg lower toward the session low at 0.59245. Price is now consolidating just above the lows with RSI(14) near 38, sellers capping rallies at the 0.5940 prior high.
Support: 0.59245, 0.59142
Resistance: 0.59396, 0.59446
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.59245 session low opens path to 0.59142 swing low
Reclaim of 0.59396 prior high would neutralise the intraday downtrend
Asia session thin liquidity may produce false breaks at the range edges
00:30 UTC
Downtrend, base building · RSI 41 · price 0.59322
Post-drop range.
NZDUSD took a sharp leg down during the London session, slicing from 0.5955 to 0.5914 in under two hours. Price has since stair-stepped back to 0.5934 and gone flat into the Asia open, consolidating below the bounce high at 0.59446.
Support: 0.59245, 0.59142
Resistance: 0.59446, 0.59551
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.59446 invalidates the lower-high read
Break of 0.59245 reopens the 0.59142 drop low
00:15 UTC
Downtrend, stabilising · RSI 44 · price 0.59343
Post-drop range, lower high intact.
Sharp London-session breakdown from 0.5955 took price to 0.5910 before a bounce reclaimed 0.5944. NY session has drifted into a tight consolidation around 0.5934, well below the pre-drop base at 0.5955, with RSI flat in the mid-40s.
Support: 0.59245, 0.59108
Resistance: 0.59446, 0.5955
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 0.5955 pre-drop base would neutralise the downtrend
Loss of 0.59245 session low reopens the 0.59108 drop low
Volume has dried up into Asia open — expect compression until Tokyo flows
00:01 UTC
Downtrend, stabilising · RSI 41 · price 0.59343
Post-drop consolidation under 0.5940.
Sharp London-session breakdown drove NZDUSD from 0.5955 to 0.5910 in four bars, followed by a rebound to 0.5944 and a slow drift lower into Asia. Price has since coiled in a tight 0.5932–0.5936 band with RSI flat near 41, no fresh direction off the session low.
Support: 0.5932, 0.59215, 0.59108
Resistance: 0.59396, 0.59446
What it said to watch
Break above 0.59446 rebound high reopens 0.5955 pre-drop area
Loss of 0.59215 swing low extends the downtrend leg
Iran/Hormuz headline flow remains a risk-sensitive driver for NZD