Lower highs and lower lows from 0.5658; post-NFP false break below 0.5539 reclaimed.
The pair has carved lower highs since Thursday's Asia-session peak at 0.5658. It slid through 0.5600 in Thursday's NY session and broke 0.5560 in Friday's Asia session and London open, following Wednesday's weak NZ jobs data and USD demand. The blowout NFP (165K vs 65K) spiked price through the 0.5539 pre-NFP low to a 0.5527 NFP low, but that bar closed back above 0.5540. The bounce stalled at the 0.5556 NFP high, just shy of the 23.6% fib, and price has since drifted back under EMA(20) near 0.5550 and onto the lower-highs line through the late NY session. RSI(14) sits mid-30s, off oversold.
Support: 0.5539, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.5550, 0.5556, 0.5600
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5527 NFP low resumes the lower-low sequence and voids the false-break read
H1 close above the 0.5556 NFP high and the lower-highs line puts the 0.5600 pivot back in focus
Saturday NZ election with no clear majority: gap risk at Monday's open could reset this structure
Fed speakers Monday and US CPI Tuesday 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows from Thursday's 0.5658 high.
The week high at 0.5658, printed in Thursday's Asia session, marks the top of the move. Since then the pair has carved a clean sequence of lower highs, with the decline running through Thursday's NY hours and extending in Friday's Asian range and at the London open, as Wednesday's sweep of NZ labour misses met a firming USD. The 165K NFP beat spiked price to a 0.5527 NFP low and briefly broke the 0.5540 Asia low before a close back above it, but the bounce stalled at the 0.5556 NFP high, just under EMA(20) near 0.5559. Price now sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 31.
Support: 0.5540, 0.5527, 0.5500
Resistance: 0.5556, 0.5599, 0.5658
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5527 NFP low resumes the lower-low sequence and puts the 0.5500 round number in view
Failure to hold the 0.5540 Asia low turns the post-NFP false break back into continuation
H1 close above the lower-highs line and the 0.5556 NFP high, with EMA(20) reclaimed, would be the first break in this week's lower highs; the 38.2% fib sits at 0.5577
Reclaim of Friday's 0.5599 day high, near the 50% fib, would negate the downtrend read
Fed's Daly (18:00 UTC) and Saturday's NZ election carry gap risk into Monday's open
Lower highs from Thursday's 0.5658 peak; week low 0.5527 swept and reclaimed.
The week high printed at 0.5658 in early Thursday Asia after Wednesday's rebound from the NZ jobs-miss low at 0.5579. The Thursday–Friday decline has run as a series of lower highs, with Friday's Asia and London sessions carrying it to the 0.5540 prior low. The NFP beat (165K vs 65K) spiked the pair to a 0.5527 week low that was rejected inside the hour. Price has since held back above 0.5540 but sits capped under the 0.5556 nfp high and EMA(20) near 0.5561, with RSI(14) lifting to ~37 from oversold-adjacent readings.
Support: 0.5540, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.5556, 0.5561, 0.5600
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below the 0.5540 prior low turns the NFP spike from a false break into a fresh lower-low sequence toward the 0.5527 week low
Close above the 0.5556 nfp high and EMA(20) at 0.5561 breaks the lower-highs trendline and opens a retracement of the Thursday–Friday decline toward the 0.5600 round number
Fed's Bowman (17:15 UTC) and Daly (18:00 UTC) commentary on a December hike could extend or unwind the post-NFP move
Saturday's NZ election carries gap risk into Monday's open
Since Thursday's Asia-session peak at 0.5658, H1 has printed a clean run of lower highs as weak NZ jobs data and a firm USD unwound the midweek bounce. Friday's Asia session broke the 0.5560 prior support and London ground down to the 0.5540 pre-NFP low. The 165K payrolls beat spiked price to a 0.5527 week low, but the NY session closed back above 0.5540, and price is now pressing ema20 near 0.5556 and the lower-highs line with RSI(14) recovering from the low 30s.
Support: 0.5540, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.5556, 0.5560, 0.5600
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.5560 prior support (near the 23.6% fib) would break the lower-highs line sequence
Failure to hold 0.5540 pre-NFP low turns the spike into continuation and reopens the 0.5527 week low
0.5600 pivot (50% fib zone) is the next cap if the recovery extends
Fed's Bowman (17:15 UTC) and Daly (18:00 UTC) could shift the read; NZ election carries weekend gap risk
Thursday's Asia-session run to the 0.5658 week high fully unwound. Lower highs have capped every bounce since, and price stays pinned below EMA(20) as risk-off USD demand and Wednesday's NZ jobs miss weighed. The 165K NFP beat drove a NY-session spike to a 0.5527 week low, but the next bar closed back above the 0.5540 Friday base, a false break below that level. Price now sits under the lower-highs trendline with RSI(14) near 32.
Support: 0.5540, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.5560, 0.5578, 0.5658
What it said to watch
H1 close above the lower-highs trendline and EMA(20) near 0.5560 would mark the first break of this week's lower-high sequence
Recovery toward the 38.2 fib at 0.5578 tests the area where Wednesday's jobs-miss low sits
Failure to hold the 0.5540 Friday base reopens the 0.5527 week low; a close below extends the downtrend
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations (15:00 UTC), plus Fed's Bowman and Daly, could materially shift this read
Saturday's NZ election carries gap risk into the next open
Lower highs and lower lows since Thursday's 0.5658 high.
Thursday's Asia-session high at 0.5658 marked the turn. The Wednesday rally off the 0.5579 wed low, set on the NZ employment miss, has since fully unwound, with lower highs through Thursday's NY session and Friday's Asia and London open as safe-haven USD demand built. The NFP hour extended the slide to the 0.5529 nfp low, and bounces are stalling well beneath EMA(20) near 0.5564. RSI(14) is pinned near 21, oversold with no bullish divergence yet.
Support: 0.55291, 0.5500
Resistance: 0.55503, 0.5564, 0.55789
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5550 pre-nfp high breaks Friday's lower-highs trendline
Reclaim of the 0.5579 wed low, aligned with the 38.2% retracement, would mark the first structural recovery
Acceptance below the 0.5529 nfp low leaves the 0.5500 round number as the next reference
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 15:00 GMT and Fed's Bowman at 17:15 GMT could materially shift this read
Saturday's NZ election adds gap risk to Monday's open
13:03 UTC
Downtrend, stalling at the lows · RSI 22 · price 0.55463
Lower highs and lows since Thursday's 0.5658 peak; tight base above 0.5540.
The bounce to Thursday's high at 0.5658 fully unwound as haven USD demand from the AI equity rout layered onto Wednesday's sweep of NZ labour misses, with a clean lower-high line capping every recovery since. Asia gave way below the Tuesday low at 0.5579, and the London session added the breakdown through 0.5556 to a 19-month week low at 0.5540. Price has compressed in a 10-pip band since, sitting under a falling EMA(20) near 0.5568, with RSI(14) oversold at about 22.
Support: 0.55395, 0.5500
Resistance: 0.5556, 0.5568, 0.55789
What it said to watch
US NFP in about 30 minutes is likely to decide whether the 0.5540 week low holds or gives way
An H1 close back above the 0.5556 breakdown and the ema20 near 0.5568 would signal the first pause in the lower-high sequence
Sustained trade below 0.5540 leaves the 0.5500 round number as the next reference
A move back above the Tue low at 0.5579 would put the 38.2% retracement near 0.5585 and the lower-high line in play
Saturday's NZ election adds gap risk into Monday's open
12:04 UTC
Downtrend, extended and oversold · RSI 18 · price 0.55425
Lower highs since Thursday's 0.5658 top; Tuesday low broken.
The week high at 0.5658 printed in Thursday's Asia session, and a steady run of lower highs has followed. Friday's Asia session broke the Tuesday low at 0.5579 (set after the weak NZ Q3 jobs miss), and the London open extended the drop to a Friday low near 0.5540, with a safe-haven USD bid behind the move. Price sits roughly 15 pips under the EMA20 with RSI(14) near 18. The lower high at 0.5599 lines up with the 50% retracement of the drop from the week high.
Support: 0.5540, 0.5500
Resistance: 0.5571, 0.5579, 0.5599
What it said to watch
US NFP at 13:30 UTC today could materially shift this read; a soft print is the larger risk to the current leg
An H1 close back above the Tuesday low at 0.5579 would turn the range break into a false break
Holding below the EMA20 at 0.5571 keeps the lower-highs sequence intact
Failure to hold the Friday low at 0.5540 leaves the 0.5500 round number as the next reference
Saturday's NZ election adds weekend gap risk to Monday's open
11:03 UTC
Downtrend, oversold at the week low · RSI 22 · price 0.55439
Lower highs and lower lows since Thursday's 0.5658 high; Friday Asian range broken lower.
NZD/USD has given back the whole midweek rebound. It is down about 119 pips from Thursday's Asia-session high at 0.5658 to a fresh week low at 0.5540, printing lower highs through Thursday's London and NY sessions and again in Friday's Asia and London legs as the USD haven bid held into NFP. The Friday Asian range floor at 0.5553 gave way in the first hour of London. Price sits below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) oversold near 22, while Tuesday's post-NZ-jobs-miss low (the tue low at 0.5579) now sits overhead next to the 38.2% fib of the Thu–Fri decline.
Support: 0.5540, 0.5500
Resistance: 0.5553, 0.5579, 0.5599
What it said to watch
US NFP at 13:30 UTC (~2.5h) could materially shift this read; a soft print reviving USD weakness is the main squeeze risk
H1 close back above the 0.5553 range floor would mark the London breakdown as failing
Reclaim of the 0.5579 tue low and the lower-highs trendline breaks the sequence of lower highs; the 50% fib near 0.5599 is the next reference
Failure to hold the 0.5540 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5500 round number
Saturday NZ election adds weekend gap risk to Monday's open
Lower highs since Thursday's peak; Tuesday's post-jobs low broken.
The week high came in Thursday's Asia session at 0.5658. Since then a run of lower highs has fully unwound the week's bounce: Friday's Asia session broke Tuesday's post-jobs low at 0.5579, and London extended the slide to a week low at 0.5542. Weak NZ Q3 labour data and a haven USD bid frame the move, with price trading below EMA(20) near 0.5568 and EMA(50), and RSI(14) at about 21, oversold.
Support: 0.55416, 0.5500
Resistance: 0.5560, 0.5568, 0.55789
What it said to watch
US NFP at 13:30 GMT (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read in either direction
H1 close back above the 0.5560 asian range floor would mark the break below it as stretched
A reclaim of the ema20 and the lower-highs trendline near 0.5570 would end the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the week low at 0.5542 exposes the 0.5500 round number
A close back above the tuesday low at 0.5579, near the 38.2% of the week-high-to-low move, would retrace the Asia-session break
NZ election Saturday adds gap risk to Monday's open
09:04 UTC
Downtrend, extended and oversold · RSI 18 · price 0.55443
Lower highs from Thursday's 0.5658 peak; week range broken to the downside.
The weak NZ Q3 jobs print on Tuesday night sent the pair to 0.5579. Broad USD selling after the Democratic sweep lifted it to 0.5646 in Wednesday's London session and 0.5658 in Thursday's Asia session, and every gain has since been unwound. A lower-highs sequence has capped price since Thursday, and haven USD demand drove a Friday Asia-to-London open break below the 0.5560 broken low to a 0.5544 session low. Price sits roughly 36 pips under EMA(20) near 0.5580, which also lines up with Tuesday's post-jobs low, with RSI(14) near 18 and no bullish divergence yet.
Support: 0.5544
Resistance: 0.5560, 0.5580, 0.5600
What it said to watch
US NFP at 13:30 GMT (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read in either direction
An H1 close back above the 0.5560 broken low would mark the Friday breakdown as a false break
A move through the lower-highs trendline near 0.5570 and EMA(20) at 0.5580 would break the sequence from Thursday's high
0.5600 round number aligns with the 50% retracement of the Thu-Fri decline; a reclaim would neutralise the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 0.5544 session low extends the lower-low sequence; Saturday's NZ election adds Monday gap risk
Lower highs since Thursday's 0.5658 peak; Tuesday low broken.
Thursday's Asia-session spike to the 0.5658 week high fully reversed, with lower highs through London and NY as the USD firmed and the weak NZ jobs backdrop weighed. Friday's Asia session broke below the 0.5579 Tue low set on the NZ labour miss, extending the Thursday-Friday decline to a fresh week low at 0.5553. Price sits below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 18, deeply oversold, and the 0.5550 Oct 14 low is just beneath.
Support: 0.55533, 0.5550
Resistance: 0.55789, 0.56027, 0.56581
What it said to watch
US NFP at 13:30 GMT (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 0.5550 Oct 14 low extends the lower-low sequence beyond the week low
Recovery above the 0.5579 Tue low and the lower-highs trendline would turn the Asia break into a false break
0.5603 Thu low sits near the 50% retracement of the Thursday-Friday decline; the 0.5658 week high is the structural cap
NZ election on Saturday adds weekend gap risk to the read
NZDUSD has printed lower highs since Thursday's Asia-session peak at 0.5658. The drop ran through London and NY as the USD recovered on Fed-hike bets and the weak NZ jobs data weighed, then broke Wednesday's 0.5579 post-midterm low in Friday's Asia session. Price sits below EMA(20) near 0.5588 with RSI(14) oversold around 22, basing for four bars just above the 0.5557 week low after a ~101-pip Thursday–Friday decline, with the broken wed low and the 0.5600 round number overhead.
Support: 0.55569, 0.5550
Resistance: 0.55789, 0.55884, 0.5600
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 0.5579 wed low would mark a false break of this week's base
Failure to hold the 0.5557 week low exposes the oct 14 low near 0.5550
US jobs report at 13:30 UTC (NFP f/c 65K) could materially shift this read; a soft print would bring the lower-highs trendline and ema20 near 0.5588 into play
A reclaim of the 0.5600 round number, near the 38.2% retrace of the Thursday–Friday decline, would break the lower-high sequence
Saturday's NZ election adds weekend gap risk after the Friday close
06:04 UTC
Downtrend, oversold · RSI 14 · price 0.55591
Lower highs since Thursday's week high; Tuesday's low broken in Friday Asia.
Thursday's Asia-session spike to the 0.5658 week high reversed through London and NY as the USD recovered. That move erased Wednesday's post-midterm gains, and Friday's Asia session extended the slide through Tuesday's low at 0.5579 to a Friday low of 0.5557. Price sits well below EMA(20), now near 0.5592, and every bounce since Thursday has set a lower high, with RSI(14) deeply oversold near 14. The weak NZ Q3 jobs report and firm Fed December hike pricing frame the move into NFP.
Support: 0.55569, 0.5550
Resistance: 0.55789, 0.5600, 0.56581
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 0.5579 (tue low) would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.5557 fri low exposes the 0.5550 round number
Reclaiming 0.5600 psych and the 38.2% fib of the week high-low move (~0.5596) would ease the downtrend read
US NFP at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
NZ election Saturday adds gap risk into Monday's open
05:03 UTC
Downtrend, stretched into oversold · RSI 21 · price 0.55638
Lower highs since Thursday's week high; Tuesday low broken.
NZD/USD has unwound the whole midterm-driven rally. A steady run of lower highs began from Thursday's Asia-session week high at 0.5658, extended through the NY session, and in Friday Asia took out Tuesday's low at 0.5579, set after the NZ jobs miss. Price is now pressing the 18m low zone near 0.5560. It sits about 30 pips under EMA(20) at 0.5595, with RSI(14) near 21 and no bullish divergence yet, consistent with the policy-divergence read of weak NZ labour data against roughly 82% Fed December hike odds.
Support: 0.5560, 0.5550
Resistance: 0.5579, 0.5595, 0.5658
What it said to watch
US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
H1 close below 0.5560 confirms a fresh lower-low through the 18m low, with the oct 14 low near 0.5550 next
Recovery back above 0.5579 (tuesday low, lower-high line) would turn the break into a false break
Failure to regain ema20 near 0.5595 keeps the lower-high sequence intact
NZ election Saturday adds weekend gap risk to the week high/low structure
Mon–Thu 0.5579–0.5658 range broken lower; lower highs since Thursday's peak.
Rejection at the 0.5658 Thursday high in Asia erased Wednesday's rebound from the post-jobs-data spike low. The Thursday sell-off then built a sequence of lower highs through the NY session as the USD recovered. Friday's Asia session cut through the 0.5579 Tuesday low to a fresh week low at 0.5561, inside the 0.5560–0.5564 18-month low zone, with the weak NZ jobs report and firm Fed hike pricing weighing. Price sits roughly 40 pips under EMA(20) near 0.5600, which lines up with the 38.2% retracement of the Thursday sell-off. RSI(14) is near 21, deep in oversold territory after a 97-pip slide.
Support: 0.55614, 0.5555
Resistance: 0.55789, 0.5602, 0.56581
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5561 week low extends the move through the 18-month low zone toward the oct low near 0.5550
Recovery and hold back above the 0.5579 Tuesday low would mark Friday's break as a false break
Lower-highs trendline and EMA(20) near 0.5600 cap the structure; a close above both returns price to the prior range
US NFP at 13:30 UTC today and Saturday's NZ election (weekend gap risk) could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Thursday's 0.5658 peak, retesting week low.
The rebound from Tuesday's week low at 0.5579 (set on the NZ jobs miss) peaked at the 0.5658 week high in Thursday's Asian session. It has since been fully erased as the USD recovered. The heaviest selling came during Thursday's NY session, and price has printed lower highs on every bounce, capped below EMA(20) near 0.5605. Asia has pushed back toward the week low with RSI(14) near 24, the most stretched reading of the window, while the 0.5600 round number now caps above.
Support: 0.5579, 0.5575
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.5605, 0.5658
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5579 week low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 0.5575 three-week low
Recovery back above the 0.5600 round number and the lower-highs trendline would break the sequence from the week high
US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) and Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC could materially shift this read
NZ election on Saturday adds weekend gap risk to the week-low area
02:04 UTC
Downtrend, momentum still negative · RSI 33 · price 0.55867
Lower highs and lower lows since Thursday's 0.5658 week high; Wednesday's rebound fully erased.
NZDUSD has given back all of Wednesday's USD-selloff rebound. After a rejection at Thursday's Asia-session 0.5658 week high, the pair slid steadily through London and NY as the dollar recovered on the claims beat and hawkish Fed remarks. Price now sits below the 0.5600 round number and EMA(20) near 0.5608, with RSI(14) around 33 and hourly bounces capped, leaving Tuesday's post-jobs-miss 0.5579 week low as the next reference and the 0.5562 18-month low zone below.
Support: 0.5579, 0.5562
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.5608, 0.5658
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.5600 round number and EMA(20) at 0.5608 would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.5579 week low opens the 0.5562 18-month low zone
Recovery through 0.5622, the 50% fib of the slide from the week high, would undo the downtrend read
US NFP (Fri 13:30 UTC) and Saturday's NZ election could materially shift this read, with gap risk at Monday's open
Lower highs and lower lows since Thursday's 0.5658 high, price back near the week low.
Thursday's Asia-session push to a 0.5658 week high was a false break above the 0.5645 Monday/Wednesday highs. The pair then bled lower through London, with the heaviest selling in the first hours of NY as the USD recovered ahead of NFP, erasing the 0.5579–0.5658 leg that followed Tuesday's NZ jobs miss. Price sits below EMA(20) near 0.5610, which aligns with the 61.8% fib, with RSI(14) near 32, and is holding a tight 0.5589–0.5599 Asian range just under 0.5600 psych, well below the 0.5621 weekly open.
Support: 0.5589, 0.5579
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.5610, 0.5621
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 0.5600 psych and the Thursday lower-high line, which is being tested in Asia, would ease the sell-off read; EMA(20) / 61.8% at 0.5610 is the next test
A break of the 0.5589 Asian low exposes the 0.5579 week low; failure there confirms a lower-low and brings the 0.5575 three-week low into view
US NFP Fri 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read; a soft print reopens the 0.5621 weekly open
NZ election Saturday adds gap risk into Monday's open
00:04 UTC
Short-term downtrend inside the week's 0.5579–0.5658 range · RSI 31 · price 0.55932
Lower highs since Thursday's rejection at the 0.5658 week high; Wednesday's rebound fully retraced.
The rebound off Tuesday's 0.5579 week low, set on the NZ jobs miss, stalled at the 0.5658 week high in Thursday's Asia session. The pair then bled lower through London and NY as USD recovered on firm claims and hawkish Fed talk, closing back under the 0.5600 psych level and erasing Wednesday's gains. Price now sits below EMA(20) near 0.5611 and EMA(50) near 0.5618, with a lower-highs line capping each bounce since Thursday morning and RSI(14) near 31; the overnight Asia low at 0.5589 is the nearest floor.
Support: 0.55887, 0.55789
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.5611, 0.56581
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above 0.5600 psych and the lower-highs line would reopen the ema20 near 0.5611 and the 38.2% retracement of Thursday's decline near 0.5615
Failure to hold the 0.5589 Asia low exposes the 0.5579 week low; a break there would extend the lower-low sequence
US NFP Fri 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; the 0.5658 week high marks the top of any USD-driven rebound
NZ election Saturday adds weekend gap risk into Monday's open