Lower highs and lower lows since early-September high; October base broken.
Two-month downtrend from the early-September 0.5902 high. The late-October bounce stalled at 0.5710 for a lower high, and Friday's close at 0.5539 cut through the oct low near 0.5565, leaving a 19m low at 0.5527. This week's 0.5658 week high marked another failed rally beneath the falling trendline after Wednesday's sweep of NZ labour misses, and the 165K NFP beat drove the breakdown. Price holds below a falling EMA(50), and RSI near 33 is not yet oversold.
Support: 0.55274, 0.5500
Resistance: 0.5565, 0.56581, 0.57102
What it said to watch
Daily close back above the 0.5565 oct low would turn the break into a false break and return price to the October range
Failure to hold the 0.5527 19m low exposes the 0.5500 round number
Close above the 0.5658 week high and the falling trendline would challenge the lower-high sequence toward the 0.5710 lower high, near the top of the fib retracement
NZ election result over the weekend carries gap risk at Monday's open
US CPI Tue 10 Nov 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
LH/LL chain since early Sep; October base 0.5565–0.5710 broken lower.
NZDUSD has printed lower highs and lower lows since the early-September 0.5902 top, with price below a falling EMA(50) throughout. The October base and its 0.5565 oct low gave way on Friday after the US NFP beat (165K vs 65K), following Wednesday's sweep of NZ labour misses, leaving a 19-month swing low at 0.5527. This week's rebound stalled at the 0.5658 week high, below the 0.5710 lower high that caps the multi-week trendline resistance.
Support: 0.55274, 0.5500
Resistance: 0.55652, 0.56581, 0.57102
What it said to watch
A daily close back above the 0.5565 oct low would turn Friday's breakdown into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.5527 swing low exposes the 0.5500 round number
Weekend NZ election result opens gap risk at Monday's open
US CPI Tue 10 Nov could materially shift this read
RSI(14) pushing below 30 would mark the first true oversold reading of the leg
A close above the 0.5658 week high and the 0.5710 lower high would break the LH/LL chain